There's a lot of discontent over the presidential choices being offered up this year by both political parties. It's captured nicely in this political cartoon from Derrick Lee, a student at the ABQ branch of the the Southwest University of Visual Arts.

Derrick's caption is "We picked them?" as he wonders how voters could have picked this Final Four.

The cartoon also reminds us that the choices offered this presidential cycle could mean lower turnout from dissatisfied voters. ABQ pollster Bruce Donisthorpe is already predicting that NM turnout in November is likely to fall below the level of the 2012 election. How much lower he says will become more clear closer to the election.

Thanks for sending that in, Derrick. We have a feeling we'll be seeing more of your work in the future.

ECON BEAT

Is it possible that NM has more payday loan stores than it does fast food chain restaurants? We have plenty of both but a group arguing for a rate cap on loans the payday industry can charge says payday loaners do indeed outnumber McDonalds and the rest of them. They say the interest rates charged--mainly to low income consumers--can soar to as much as 2,700 percent. That doesn't leave much left over for a Big Mac. Rate cap legislation has yet to take hold in Santa Fe.

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TRAIL DUST

The June 7th NM primary is sneaking up on us and activity is starting to pick up. From Los Lunas:

On Friday, April 29th at 3:00PM, the NM Federation of Labor’s 2nd Annual Gracias Bus Tour will make its third stop, in Los Lunas, for a 2016 Election Public Forum. The goal of the five day, five city tour is to host thank you events for legislators who stopped bad bills for working families and educate voters on the importance of the 2016 election. Attendees will be able to register to vote, talk about issues and meet local political leaders. The Community Ice Cream Social and Election Forum will be at Smith’s Grocery, 2580 Main Street, Los Lunas. More information can be found at NM Working Families.

TWO RUNS

House Majority Leader Nate Gentry is off and running--but not just for re-election to his ABQ NE Heights State House seat:

Gentry swapped loafers for running shoes earlier this month when he took part in the prestigious Boston Marathon. Gentry finished the 26.2-mile race on April 18 with a time of just over 3 hours and 16 minutes. He said Tuesday hot and humid conditions weren’t ideal for him and other New Mexico-based runners. “I didn’t run as quickly as I’d hoped, but it was a cool experience,” Gentry said.

Republican Gentry's Boston Marathon run remained us of 1978 when then-NM Democratic Gov. Jerry Apodaca entered and finished the grueling race. Like Nate, Jerry was not happy with his performance and said he "barely" finished. Gentry is about 40 and Apodaca was about 43 when he made the run,

We don't know how this year's election will turn out, but when it comes to the Boston Marathon, it took a while but the state's R's have finally tied the D's.

Thanks for stopping by this week.

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We wish we were but we aren't--a swing state, that is. The NM GOP seems to be longing for the good old days in a recent news release:

. . .We believe that every campaign should fight to win in New Mexico, because whoever our nominee is, the experience of campaigning in and organizing in a swing state like New Mexico would help defeat Hillary Clinton here in November.

The last time NM went R in the prez race was in 2004, we haven't selected a Republican US Senator since Saint Pete was re-elected in 2002 and after 40 years under R control, the  ABQ congressional seat went Dem in 2008 and hasn't looked back.

 If you want some swinging around here, your best bet is the dance floor--not national politics.

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ALLIGATOR ALLEY

One of our Gators reports in with this:

Did you know that Gov. Martinez is hosting her fellow governors at the Corporate Policy Summit #1 on May 17th and 18th at the Hyatt Regency Tamaya Resort in Bernalillo? Corporate Policy Summit #2 will be held in Boston on September 13-14. She's going to be busy lady and out of state most of the year until after the election. Here's part of her schedule which doesn't include campaigning for GOP governors up for re-election.

Martinez is chair of the Republican Governors Association and some of her schedule was posted on the RGA site.

THE MEDICAID MESS

How mismanaged is state government? Try this one on for size. The state may let well over $300 million in Medicaid money slip from its fingers, even though it only has to find $86 million to get the $300 million from the Feds:

Faced with limited dollars and skyrocketing Medicaid enrollment, the New Mexico Human Services Department. . . plans to generate as much as $33.5 million in savings by cutting provider rates for doctors, hospitals and dentists around the state. . .

New Mexico is seeking to close an $86 million state funding gap for Medicaid services between now and mid-2017, under budget restrictions linked to a downturn in energy markets and other spending priorities. The state budget shortfall means New Mexico is likely to forgo well over $300 million in federal matching funds for Medicaid.

The twist here is that the Martinez administration is putting the screws to the UNM Health Sciences Center to try and pry loose at least $50 million in cash for Medicaid from a stockpile of $220 million set aside mainly for a new hospital, says ABQ Dem State Senator Jerry Oriz Y Pino. He points out the administration's Medicaid cuts would be most severe for UNM Health.

The administration previously asked UNM Heath Sciences for that money but were rebuffed. Soon after the UNM Regents restructured the goverance of Health Sciences make it more answerable to the main campus. This latest move seems aimed at getting that $50 million back on the table.

The administration is not misguided in going after more UNM money for Medicaid (UNM Health contributes each year) and UNM Health is not amiss in wanting it eventually paid back like it has been in the past when the Federal matching funds come in. But the administration would not give the payback pledge when it went for the $50 million. The adults in the room need to craft a compromise and secure the hundreds of millions in federal funding rather than posturing. Or how about this. . .

Tens of millions in dollars of capital outlay funds just sit there unspent. That could be a source of onetime money to plug the $86 million hole that would then turn into well over $300 million, thanks to the federal match.

If we do see Medicaid payments slashed, one reader says look for this:

Under paid doctors will flee the state for more lucrative grounds, especially the high income medical specialists.

The doctors better not leave too soon. Thousands of New Mexicans getting sick to their stomachs over the lack of leadership around here are going to need them.

ONE OTHER THING

UNM Health stockpiled its $220 million so it can pay cash for a new UNM hospital. But is that really wise? Interest rates are at historic lows. We could build that hospital by floating bonds at these great rates and free up cash for Medicaid and other needs.

UNM Health also gets $90 million in taxes for its indigent fund, even in the aftermath of Obamacare which is aimed at providing everyone with private health insurance or through Medicaid.

From this perch it looks as if Bernalillo County property owners may be over taxed when it comes to the health complex.

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The layoffs at Intel are coming with political recriminations this time around and the Democrats are hoping that leads to political consequences.

Reports Tuesday pegged the number of layoffs at the Rio Rancho chip plant at 215, shrinking the workforce from 1,900 to 1,685 and delivering another body blow to the metro economy. Soon, it seems, there will be little more than a skeleton crew out there, barring a surprise.

The layoffs here are part of 12,000 the company is making worldwide.

Perhaps the layoffs will finally spark a long overdue debate about the dreary area job market, especially about good paying jobs like those being lost and not being created. From the state Dems:

The job cuts at Intel just add to a long history of lost jobs under (Gov, Martinez's) watch. Democrats have been working to invest in early childhood education, job training programs, and college education in an effort to build long-term economic security in our state and ensure New Mexicans have the skills needed to get ahead in this economy, while Martinez and state Republicans continue to focus on their all-crime, all the time agenda. 

The lack of focus from Governor Martinez and Republicans in the state is having a damaging effect on New Mexico’s economic future.

Dem attorney Daymon Ely, seeking the state House seat where Intel is located and currently held by GOP State Rep. Paul Pacheco, joined in the hit. He called on Pacheco to address the "job crisis."

I challenge my opponent, Paul Pacheco, who represents this district and has done nothing to address these critical issues, to meet with me in an open forum so that we can hear his plans on how to save our community.

A call to Pacheco for a response was not returned. He was in the fore at the last legislative session in the effort to repeal driver's licenses for undocumented workers which finally passed with a compromise. But Pacheco has been quiet on the jobs and economy front as a portion of his district is devastated by the Intel retreat. The seat leans R but Ely has raised a lot of money.

The Dems will have to pound hard and consistently to switch the political agenda from  the "all crime all the time" campaign that is coming from the R's and that was their central focus in the recent legislative session. One news release won't do it.

CURRENT ODDS

Current Senior Alligator odds on control of the House next year: The odds currently favor the R's keeping the House but it's close--6 to 5 in favor of the R's. The odds on the R's taking control of the state Senate are 20 to 1. We'll revisit the odds as develops warrant.

BACK ON INTEL

There was some media talk circulating that the loss of the Intel workers is actually an opportunity because many of them are highly trained and creative. That went over like a lead balloon with many of our readers, including reader Kathryn Carrol:

The real brain power now working at the plant will be moved to other Intel locations - those remaining are beyond their prime and will be interested only in a buyout or an enhancement to boost their pension. Went through that with a then-60-year old husband with 30 years of service when IBM devastated the manufacturing plant in Tucson back in the late '80s. The enhanced pension and free medical coverage for life for both employee and spouse was a nice sweetener.

There was a good job growth report released about the ABQ metro Tuesday but it appears most of the jobs being created remain on the low-paying side and not the kind that are going to keep talented younger people from fleeing for greener pastures.

ROGERS VS. YATES

Rogers (Bralley)

Pat Rogers is using some media bashing to try to prevent a loss in his race for NM GOP National Committeeman to former NM GOP Chairman Harvey Yates. He released his response to Yates' recent delegate letter that said its time for Rogers to go, saying the Republican Governor and state House have squandered their years in power by doing little to create jobs.

The Rogers letter (here) runs 1,700 words and contains a lengthy passage about "Democrat dominated newspapers and bloggers." Said Rogers of Yates:

We also have very different means of communicating. That is why I am writing to you and other Republican delegates and leaders directly, personally, and privately. I would never choose to communicate with you about Republican Party internal debates through the statewide media or through Democrat-dominated newspapers and bloggers’ so that our discussion becomes, as Harvey has chosen to try to make it, a public airing of perceived
injuries and grievances. I don’t see that as effective in moving our Party or our Country forward.

Actually, it's this "blogger" Pat is talking about since we're the only one covering the race. The notorious Rogers has given us great copy for 13 years and his thin skin regarding us is legendary.

He did not mention that the liberal New Mexican actually endorsed Governor Martinez for re-election in 2014.

Rogers accuses Yates of making his announcement for committeeman in the New Mexican which he says in the bag for the D's. The story was actually first reported here (yeah, we still chase an ambulance once in a while) and did not come from Yates--but from readers who informed us of his candidate letter. He also formally announced--with Rogers present--at the recent BernCo GOP County Convention.

Rogers, long a fixer for the Martinez political Machine (remember the state racino lease for the Downs at ABQ?), has had the committeeman slot for eight years, but this contest to be decided at the state GOP convention in May looks close as we draw nearer to the post-Martinez era. Maybe that's why he spent 1,700 words on the attack.

TRUMP AND NM

The CNN political analysis team said last night that it expects Donald Trump to get "a few more delegates" than Cruz and Kasich from the NM June 7th GOP presidential primary. We take that as a prediction that Trump will carry the state which would surprise no one, given the momentum Trump picked up from the primaries back East last night.

HILLARY STAFFS UP

We mentioned that Bernie Sanders plans to put several staffers on the ground here for the Dem presidential primary. And so is Hillary:

Hillary for New Mexico campaign will be led by State Director Scott Forrester. Rich Thuma will serve as Organizing Director and Victor Reyes will serve as Communications Director. . .Hillary for New Mexico will open offices throughout the state in the coming weeks. . .Forrester served as political director for her 2008 New Mexico operation. From 2009-2013, he served as the Executive Director of the state Democratic Party. Scott is the co-founder of Bosque Strategies, a political consulting firm. Supporters in New Mexico who want to get involved and join Hillary for New Mexico should visit.

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The anti-Trump forces want it to be Kasich vs. Trump in the New Mexico June 7th GOP presidential primary as Cruz and Kasich form a pact to stop Trump from getting the magic number of national GOP delegates and capturing the party's  nomination. That has Cruz taking a pass on active campaigning in the state and Kasich having the field to himself and The Donald.

But Texas Senator Cruz is a much better fit for the state and was ahead of Trump by one point in the February ABQ Journal poll. Veteran pollster Brian Sanderoff tells me it's a good bet that Cruz will still finish ahead of Kasich here, pact or no pact:

This pact seems to help Cruz the most since if he peels off some Kasich supporters in Indiana he could possibly win the state and get all the delegates. Kasich stands no chance in Indiana, so it's OK for him to say he will stop focusing there. In New Mexico where Trump and Cruz are doing well, it doesn't matter if Cruz deemphasizes NM thereby losing NM by a few points because he will still get some delegates due to our proportional allocation of delegates at both the state and congressional district level.

The pact was already in danger of unraveling soon after it was announced. It also sounded desperate. From the WaPo:

If Donald Trump could have engineered a scenario that would fire up his anti-establishment base any more than it already is, the public announcement of a Cruz-Kasich alliance would be how he would have done it. Now it's not just hard-to-understand delegate math where the GOP establishment is plotting against Trump but a high-profile handshake agreement between a sitting senator and governor.

New Mexico has only 24 delegates to the national convention. New Mexico will decide 21 delegates on June 7th. Three others go to party insiders. A candidate has to get at least 15% of the statewide vote to qualify for delegates. The state GOP has put out a delegate primer here.

Kasich should run his best in ABQ and its suburbs and maybe make a move in the Hispanic North. Trump will fight it out with Cruz in the conservative south and southeast. Trump will be the favorite for the overall win. There are simply not enough "moderate R's" like Kasich who will be voting in the NM primary to propel him into the victory circle or close to it and conservative Cruz supporters will be loathe to cross over and vote for Kasich.

Maybe Gov. Martinez can help fellow Governor Kasich here, but after her problems in this contest (endorsing Rubio who shortly after dropped out and bad mouthing Trump at a private lunch which was leaked to the press) she might want to do it on the down low.

As it stands New Mexico won't matte much, but that it matters at all is welcome. At least we get some national publicity that for a change isn't negative.

DAZE OF DARREN

Darren White, former Bernalillo County Sheriff, former director of the public safety divisions for the state and ABQ and a longtime Gov. Martinez political operative, continues to get scorched on social media for his flip on marijuana.

After years of opposing legalizing use of the weed White is now cashing in on the medical marijuana business. And new details have emerged about the once outspoken anti-drug crusader.

White, his son Darren Jr.  and two other investors are reported to be investing $1 million in the medical marijuana business PurLife. White is the company's CEO and security director. Of course, that business was given a license to operate by. . . drum roll please. . . the Department of Health of the state of New Mexico that is controlled by. . .second drum roll. . . Gov. Martinez (and her powerful political consultant and Darren BFF Jay McCleskey.)

The report also has White disclosing being on a steady diet of narcotic pain killers for back and knee jury pain. That's how he says he came across medical marijuana whose side effects are not as powerful. He is now a medical marijuana user. Here's his quote:

A steady diet of consuming painkillers is not quality of life. The narcotic painkillers, they knock you out.

You mean Darren apparently was under the influence of narcotics during his erratic episodes in state and ABQ government and while posting numerous hate tweets on social media against Martinez critics in and outside of the media? Hmm...that explains things.

What really kills the pain of injury--or of plain old life--for Darren and company is cold hard cash. Another of his BFF's--House Majority Leader Nate Gentry--is scooping up campaign cash from medical marijuana producers as the tea leaves predict eventual legalization or decriminalization of the drug in New Mexico.

(The "nonprofit" label that has been assigned to the medical marijuana producers in the state was proven to be a sham by investigate reporter Peter St. Cyr.)

Who else deeply connected to the Martinez administration is investing in the marijuana business (with the help of the Department of Health?) And did Darren and his son really invest as much as the others in their medical marijuana business? Or were their shares of the investment much, much lower because of White's "experience with state government?"

As they say, you cant make this stuff up--well, not unless you're popping pain killers, smoking dope or getting smashed at a pizza party.

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Lt. Gov. Sanchez

Hey, John Sanchez. Don't mess with the Machine! That seems to be the none too subtle message the lieutenant governor  is getting as he grapples with headlines accusing him of possibly unethical behavior. Here's the gist:

. . . Sanchez is under fire for using more than $40,000 in campaign funds during the 2014 election to pay himself rent for an office in an Albuquerque warehouse that he owns. The building. . . is also used by Sanchez’s Right Way Roofing company. Beginning in January 2013, Sanchez used the office as headquarters for his campaign as he ran unopposed for re-election in the 2014 Republican primary and in the general election on a ticket with Gov. Martinez, who won. . . over Democrat Gary King. “If I was trying to hide something, I wouldn’t have reported it,” Sanchez said. . . Democrats as well as a group that has pushed campaign reforms in the state blasted Sanchez.

The rent story was dug up from Sanchez's recent campaign finance report. You can't prove that it was the Governor's political Machine that was behind this one, but it was eerily similar to an attack leveled by Martinez against Dem foe King in the '14 Guv race. Here's the TV ad from then:

Politician Gary King. Insider deals. While in the statehouse, Gary King wrote legislation for the state to lease an office building in Moriarty. But King never mentioned who owned that building he was asking the state to lease — Gary King. He used his elected position to push a state contract to himself. Gary King pocketed $192,000 from taxpayers. Politician Gary King: insider deals for him, a bad deal for us.

The context of all this is simple: Sanchez is seeking the '18 GOP gubernatorial nomination. ABQ Mayor Richard Berry is expected to seek the same nomination. Berry is backed by Martinez political consultant and Machine leader Jay McCleskey. Sanchez is their enemy.

But why now? Wouldn't the Sanchez rent story be more effective closer to that still far off Guv campaign? Probably. But as readers of this space know, Sanchez has been conducting an "Operation Separation" when it comes to fellow Republican and Governor Martinez.

He has twice taken to Facebook in recent weeks. First, on March 21 he questioned the Governor-appointed UNM Regents on how they revamped the governing structure of the UNM Health Sciences Center.  Second, on April 1 he veered further to the right on abortion than Martinez, questioning UNM's role in a fetal tissue controversy. This, in part, because he does not want to be strangled by Martinez's possible unpopularity as happened to Diane Denish, Light Guv under Dem Guv Richardson, who was defeated by Martinez in 2010. And Sanchez also wants to keep social conservatives disgruntled with Martinez and Berry under his roof. They are important in a GOP nominating contest.

NAUGHTY JOHN

Naughty John appears to have gotten the Guv's goat so it was payback time now. Not later. And never mind that the story might be better used down the road. That's how the Machine rolls.

As for the political impact of the report, Sanchez handled it well in his on camera interview and it will strike some as a campaign process story. But it did have some sting and reminded you of how the Machine has poisoned so many Hispanic Dems over the years over ethical issues. Berry could move to lump Sanchez in with that crowd as he faces an uphill battle to take the Guv nomination away from Sanchez. Sanchez is not naive and blamed the rent report, if vaguely, on his "political opponents."

Sanchez has tried to soften his separation operation by dumping his breaks with the Fourth and Fifth Floors on Friday afternoons on Facebook. Now he's finding out that you can't negotiate with machines. You either fight or die.

INTEL'S REPRIEVE

It's not certain how much of a reprieve it will be, but for now Intel says--contrary to speculation--it will not close its giant computer chip plant in Rio Rancho. But that doesn't mean it will ever return to being the once robust operation it was. The new speculation has Intel laying off employees there again this week--along with thousands of others worldwide--but keeping the plant open on a caretaker basis. If that's the case the current 1,900 workforce could shrink into the hundreds over the next few years.

The slow and agonizing downsizing of one of the state's major employers has given rise to discussion about the hundreds of millions in ongoing tax breaks and incentives Intel received for locating here over 30 years ago.

Tom Cafcas of Good Jobs First (an outfit that tracks the impact of tax subsides) says companies are increasingly focusing on education and infrastructure, and if New Mexico wants a takeaway from Intel, it is to spend money not on tax incentives, but on investments in public amenities.

“Focus on basic investments in workforce training or transportation assets or education … in this case. . .Those are the things driving where companies locate,” he said. “This is an important moment to step back and notice.”

Once again it appears an expert is anyone from out of town. Santa Fe, operating under an umbrella of austerity for the entirety of this decade, isn't listening.

It makes you wonder what Gov. Martinez and the traveling Amigos--a high-roller group that each year travels to different cities to promote business in the state--is telling New Yorkers and South Carolinians--this year's destinations. Maybe they're trying to sell them a plant in Rio Rancho.

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