Friday, October 21, 2016ABQ Mayor Mum On Trump; GOP Leader Will Keep his Ballot Secret, Plus: Pence Plays In ABQ And Early Voting Centers Open Statewide Saturday
We wondered here the other day where ABQ GOP Mayor Berry was on Trump? Voting for him? Against? Well, he was finally asked but don't expect a clear answer:
I find myself in the same position a lot of mayors around the country are in and that is as a mayor of a major city in America you have to work with the administrations. President Obama is a Democrat, I’m a Republican. We've had opportunities to work on transportation projects and things and you want to keep those lines open,” he said. Berry says this election has been a nasty one and it's better to keep his ballot to himself. "America right now is so overly partisan it's tearing us apart,” he said. That's not going to go over well with anyone. The Trump supporters are going to accuse him of cowardice as will the anti-Trump contingent. Gov. Martinez sounded more forceful when she said he was withholding her support from Trump, but she did not rule out actually voting for him, a fine point that some may have missed. The subject could be revisited if Berry seeks higher office when he finishes his second mayoral term in December 2017. About that political future, one soon-to-be candidate for mayor tells us he asked Berry if he had any intention of seeking a third term next year. He said Berry told him the chances of that are "zero." Berry has previously said that he would only seek two terms. A run for the 2018 GOP Guv nomination remains on the table. GOOD QUESTION Reader Charles Gregory comes with a salient question in light of Berry's nonanswer. Maybe some of our readers can help in answering it: Are there any Republicans that will be on the ballot in Bernalillo County who have publicly said they do not endorse and will not vote for Trump? I posted this question to the county GOP, but they are not answering. I'd appreciate knowing. Thank you. Thanks, Charles. We'll let you know if we hear anything. PENCE PLACE GOP VP candidate Mike Pence made A quick ABQ stop Thursday--his second since August. What caught our eye was the venue. The Indiana governor held it at the Embassy Suites near downtown ABQ. This place gets hardly any attention but is a real gem. The Pence rally was timed well, coming in the 6 p.m. hour and garnering live TV coverage. However, NM is ranked likely Dem for the presidential race and expected to stay that way. Neither Clinton or Trump are buying TV time here. After the Pence event we ran into a group of Republicans who had attended, including NM GOP Chairwoman Debbie Maestas. She beamed when asked how it went. "Great!" she exclaimed, and her company nodded their assent. EARLY VOTE Many of you will go to an early voting center Saturday to cast your vote. To help you with that here is in-depth election info from the League of Women Voters election guide and from the ABQ Journal's voter guide. Both are comprehensive and do not take sides. On the other hand, this year there is a different kind of voter guide--the Progressive Voter Guide is unabashed in its support of liberal candidates. HAD ENOUGH? Had enough La Politica for now? There are plenty of places to escape to in the Land of Enchantment. Here's the Tourism Department's "14 Stunning Places to Visit (and photograph). How many have you visited? Thanks for stopping by this week. Reporting to you from ABQ, I'm Joe Monahan. This is the home of New Mexico politics. E-mail your news and comments. (jmonahan@ix.netcom.com) Interested in reaching New Mexico's most informed audience? Advertise here. (c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2016 Thursday, October 20, 2016Final Debate: He Could Have Said It Different, Plus: NM Polling For Clinton Still Solid, We're Walking Back That Thomson Polling Lead In Key House Race, Our Odds On Dems Tying House Or Takeover Shift Slightly And NM Newspaper Decides No Candidate Endorsements
Trump could have said it another way at last night's debate--that he would accept the election results once he was assured there was nothing illegal about them, but he didn't and we get this extraordinary paragraph:
LAS VEGAS (AP) -- Threatening to upend a fundamental pillar of American democracy, Donald Trump refused to say Wednesday night that he will accept the results of next month's election if he loses to Hillary Clinton. The Democratic nominee declared Trump's resistance "horrifying." It's true that back in the day a number of elections were stolen through stuffing the ballot box and other nefarious methods. Those days are gone, although the cynics among us would say the elections are still being stolen, but it's done legally with millions of dollars of unregulated and anonymous cash. . . Okay, here's more for all you Bad Hombres this Thursday. . . More presidential polling here continues to show Democrats coming home to Hillary Clinton. The latest WaPo survey conducted October 8-16 puts Clinton at 41%, Trump at 33, Libertarian Gary Johnson at 18 and the Green Party's Jill Stein at 5%. An eight point lead in a NM presidential race is large. Will it hold and if it does will it have a big impact on the battle for the state House and the state Senate? History says Johnson will fade in the final weeks, but he seems on track for a finish of 10 to 12 percent. Stein probably drops a couple points to settle at 3%. The insider BernCo polling we reported on this week and that was conducted Oct. 14 had Clinton performing at 47% with Trump at 32 and Johnson at 12. WALKING BACK Meanwhile, we're walking back our insider polling report showing former Dem State Rep. Elizabeth Thomson sporting a "double digit" lead over her Republican opponent Christina Hall in a key swing district in ABQ's NE Heights. While we received a bunch of polling numbers from across the state, the Thomson-Hall race was not one of them. This is not a district that historically is won by double-digits. The mix-up came while other results were being relayed to us. Meanwhile, Republicans are saying their polling is showing the race is still in play. However, in a presidential year this seat is lean Dem. HOUSE ODDS A round of consulting with our Alligators, insider-leaners and assorted hangers-on has us adjusting our odds on who will will control the state House after this election. The odds of the Dems tying it up or taking it over outright now go to 52 to 48 from 51 to 49. That's mainly because a pick up of only two seats would give the Dems a a 35 to 35 tie. The consensus of our insiders is that the Trump implosion--if not reversed in the final weeks--will help the D's pick up at least two. The Dems still seem somewhat unfocused to many of our observers and not providing a clear rationale as to why they should take the House back. Meantime, the tough on crime pitch from the R's seems to be falling a bit flat. SUPREME TV Republicans have to be worried that the Democratic trend this year will jeopardize Judy Nakamura's chances of keeping the seat on the NM Supreme Court that she was appointed to by Gov. Martinez. She's being challenged by Dem Court of Appeals Judge Michael Vigil. It has always been a tough race for Nakamura. No R has been elected to the high court since the 80's. But her long judge service in BernCo has given R's hope that there will be ticket splitting and she could slide in on her strength in BernCo. But a big Clinton win in the county--say 8 points or more--could doom her. Meantime, the judge candidates are on the TV airwaves. Here's Vigil's ad and here is Nakumara's ad. WHY ENDORSE? With trust in the media continuing to plummet--even before Trump went to town on them--some observers are saying it's time for newspapers to get out of the endorsement game. They say it would help rebuild trust with skeptical readers. Whether it would or wouldn't is up for debate but the Roswell Daily Record may be a test case. It has decided not to issue any candidate endorsements this year: . . . This newspaper has declared itself an independent publication that won’t kowtow to either political party. Our move to the independent center is a result of changes in newspaper management more than a year ago in response to a perception that we’d become a right wing newspaper, beholden to a Republican Party that dominates Roswell’s politics and government. Our intent is not to suppress conservative voices but to encourage more liberal and libertarian viewpoints by welcoming them to the op-ed pages of the RDR. And on our news pages, we seek to be more inclusive of the viewpoints and lifestyles that make up Roswell. We seek to be a neutral observer, and to supplement our reporting with thought-provoking editorials from time to time. THE BOTTOM LINES In our first draft Wednesday we said that Bernie Sanders drew a crowd of about 1,000 to his Tuesday UNM rally. That was based on the initial newspaper estimate. The paper later changed its estimate to 2,000. . . . And it's the time of year when we give you monster blogs to keep you up on the action and that inevitably leads to some errors. Fortunately, we have reader/editors who keep the blog on the straight and narrow. . . We said Arizona had not voted for a Democratic presidential candidate since 1964 but that was way off the mark. First off, in 1964 Arizona voted for Republican favorite son Barry Goldwater and in 1996 Arizona voted for Democrat Bill Clinton. . .And we had the wrong year for the next election for NM secretary of state. It's 2018 that the office will again be on the ballot for a full four year term. The winner this year will serve two years to fill out the term of ex-SOS Duran. This is the home of New Mexico politics. E-mail your news and comments. (jmonahan@ix.netcom.com) Interested in reaching New Mexico's most informed audience? Advertise here. (c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2016 Wednesday, October 19, 2016The Latest: Less Than 3 Weeks To Go; Pence To ABQ Thursday But Why? Leader Egolf Feeling Pressure In State House Battle And Insider Polling Has SOS Race Going Dem In BernCo And Heinrich Gets On Clinton VP List
Less than three weeks to go. We're on it like a wet blanket.
GOP VP candidate Mike Pence returns to ABQ for a Thursday rally at 6 p.m. at the Embassy Suites Hotel and the question is why? New Mexico is colored blue on all the presidential maps and there seems little that could change that after the Trump implosion. That led us to query our Alligators about why the Indiana Governor is spending precious campaign time in a non swing state. The most frequent answer was that the Pence visit is designed was to get out the base Republican vote in order to keep the state House under GOP control. Another reason for the visit? To possibly pave the way for Pence's own run for the presidential nomination in 2020. Besides, Pence will be in Durango, Colorado on Wednesday, a short hop to the Duke City where the TV time he gets will be beamed back to Durango and a lot of other southern Colorado towns that are in the ABQ TV market (so is a slice of eastern Arizona and the Navajo Reservation). The state House battle is fully joined with a path for a Dem takeover more clearly defined than several months ago, but it is no done deal. Pence firing up the R's to go vote is time well spent in that regard. Maybe Gov. Martinez, chair of the Republican Governors Association, had a hand in bringing him in here? (He was also here in August). She has a lot to lose if the House reverts back to the Dems. Bernie Sanders held an ABQ rally at UNM Tuesday that drew a crowd of some 2,000 so Pence's event will serve to counterbalance Bernies's bounce. And maybe Pence picks up some campaign money while at the Embassy suites? Even though Trump and Pence are barnstorming Colorado this week the state is now tipping to the Dems and losing its swing state status. Worse for the GOP pair is Arizona. The state has rarely gone for the Dem presidential candidate. Now that is in doubt with the Dems making a move there. Whatever his reasons for stopping in ABQ, the best advice to Mike Pence is to get back on the plane ASAP and head over to Phoenix. PRESSURE TIME State House Minority Leader Brian Egolf seems to be getting nervous. That's natural. With polling numbers circulating showing his Democrats in a better position to pick up three seats and retake control of the House from the GOP, the fretting has begun about turnout. But Egolf takes it one step further. He asserts that the polling is not as good as it should be: Our Democratic candidates for the state House should be leading by wide margins. Donald Trump’s campaign is in total meltdown. But his implosion hasn’t seemed to impact down-ballot races. In fact, most of our Democratic candidates are still neck and neck with their Republican opponents. As hard as it is to believe, there is a real possibility that candidates who share Trump’s extreme agenda could be elected to the state House. Egolf made that statement in a fund-raising missive as he works to generate enthusiasm among base voters. There is maximum pressure on Egolf who could very well be selected the next House speaker if the Dems win. If Egolf and his team can't put the House under Blue control with Trump at the head of the GOP ticket and with good starting polling numbers in many of the key legislative districts, when can they take it back? SOS UPDATE
It would be a surprise if Democrat and Bernalillo County Clerk Maggie Toulouse Oliver failed to win back the secretary of state's office in a presidential year when turnout increases. According to insider polling conducted late last week Oliver is indeed on her way to Santa Fe. She is pulling about 54 percent in big Bernalillo County and if that holds on Election Night, she will be elected statewide. Oliver launched her TV ads in early October and that's paying off, along with the high name ID she has earned in BernCo due to her eight years of public service. The R's took the SOS office for the first time since the 30's in 2014 in a stunning victory for Dianna Duran who beat Oliver in a low turnout off year election. But Duran blew it and ended up serving a month in jail for campaign corruption charges This time Oliver faces former GOP Roswell State Rep. Nora Espinoza who this week joined Oliver on the TV airwaves. Espinoza needs to get ABQ in play but her conservative brand of politics makes that an uphill prospect, and having Trump serving as a statewide drag doesn't help. ONE OF 39 Okay, it's not exactly making the short list, but freshman Dem US Senator Martin Heinrich still has to have his chest out after WikiLeaks discloses Clinton campaign emails had him as one of 39 prospective VP picks for the Dem prez nominee: The list of 39 names. . . was sent to Clinton by Campaign Chairman John Podesta on March 17. The email was part of a trove of 50,000 purported messages stolen from Podesta’s Gmail account. The email was sent on the heels of Clinton’s sweep of five primaries. . . on March 15. . . The list of potential veeps was compiled by Podesta and top Clinton aides. . . Heinrich is up for re-election in 2018 and we already have hard news for you on that front. ABQ contractor and political newcomer Mick Rich is the first Republican surfacing as a possible foe. Mick Rich is owner and CEO of Mick Rich Contractors in Albuquerque, But because of Mick’s commitment to improving New Mexico’s communities, his story extends far beyond business ownership. Raised in the San Francisco Bay Area, Mick earned his civil engineering degree from Oregon State University and began his contracting career in California and several other states before coming to New Mexico, where his roots stretch back almost a century. His grandfather worked as a mining engineer in deep shaft, hard rock mining in Silver City and Magdalena in the 1920s and 1930s. So when Mick moved here in 1980, he was seeking more than opportunity, he was seeking community. Governor Susana has also been mentioned as a possible '18 Heinrich foe but with her popularity numbers in the cellar and the antipathy toward her in a large portion of her own Party, the prospects look dim. Meanwhile, we're told by our GOP alligators that Rich is already spending money on consultants. That's rich. ART HEADACHES There's plenty of time to absorb the history on historic Route 66 in ABQ, these days. The ART rapid bus construction project is underway this week, with torn up streets slowing traffic to a crawl during rush hours. That was expected but reader Dan Klein has some ideas to make the Central Avenue commute shorter and smoother during the year long project: The contractors and the city seemed unprepared for traffic issues. I recommend two things the contractors do immediately. First, from Old Town all the way up west Central, greatly increase the green light for east/west traffic from 6 am to 9 am every morning and from 4 pm to 7 pm every night. With Central being cut down to one lane we need to keep that traffic moving as much as possible. Second, consider stopping work and reopening a second lane on westbound Central from Old Town to Atrisco during the evening (4 pm to 7 pm) rush hour. I know Berry wants ART and since we are getting it he needs to tell the contractors to make life as easy on the citizen commuter as they can. I think these two ideas, at least for the Westside folks trying to cross the river, should help them get home without sitting for hours in traffic jams. The city says it will not extend the time of the green lights along the ART route until the project is completed. And that's a flashing red light to motorists thinking of getting their kicks on ABQ's Route 66. This is the home of New Mexico politics. E-mail your news and comments. (jmonahan@ix.netcom.com) Interested in reaching New Mexico's most informed audience? Advertise here. (c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2016 Tuesday, October 18, 2016Prez Polling In BernCo Has Clinton Far Ahead, And: Lobo Louie Blues As Athletic Department Faces New Reality
Here's the latest for you. . .
The presidential race looks pretty much like a done deal here. Insider polling of Bernalillo County shows Clinton sporting a big double digit lead over Trump. She is pulling about 47 percent in the state's largest county in polling conducted late last week. Trump is about 32 and Johnson is coming in at about 12 percent. Even if the Hillary number is off a couple of points (it was conducted via robocalls to landlines but no cell phones) she is still in the winner's circle. The race will probably narrow a bit but unless there is a humongous October surprise, this cake is baked. You don't need polling to know that Clinton will carry the North in a big way. So, as expected, it appears Clinton will secure New Mexico's five electoral votes and on November 8 put the state in the Democratic column for the third presidential election in a row. Bernie Sanders today works to make sure the deal for Clinton is indeed sealed here as he rallies youthful voters who have been reluctant to join the Hillary bandwagon. Here's what the Sanders campaign told supporters on the eve of the 11 a.m. UNM rally: Let's raise the minimum wage to a living wage, let's combat climate change and move to sustainable energy, let's make public colleges and universities tuition free, let's end a broken criminal justice system. Let's defeat Donald Trump and make Hillary Clinton our next president. THE HOUSE BATTLE Now more exclusive Campaign '16 news from NM Politics with Joe Monahan: GOP state Rep. Sarah Maestas Barnes holds a modest single digit lead over Dem Ane Romero, according to the insider numbers which we have relied on with success in years past. Freshman Barnes has positioned herself as a "moderate" Republican in this contest. The Dems need a pick up of two seats to tie up the 70 member House and three to take outright control. With Trump imploding, Dem chances have improved. We didn't mention the ABQ North Valley, Westside and Rio Rancho Senate seat up for grabs in our Monday list of districts in play. Dems are expressing hope that Dem David Simon may have a shot against Republican Candace Gould in this battle to replace retiring GOP Senator John Ryan. Reader Mark Michel writes that Simon, a former state parks director, is "running a vigorous grass roots campaign and has strong support in the tech and environmental communities." This is a 50-50 performing district. Pollster Brian Sanderoff adds his two cents worth, saying in a presidential year this could be a close one. LOBO BLUES Longtime fans are sad to see the long, slow decline of UNM athletics after it provided the community with so many thrills over the decades. The Lobos, especially the basketball team, have long been a point of pride and the Pit, packed with rowdy fans whose roars seemed to move the building, earned a reputation nationally as a must see venue. Those days appear to be over for good as New Mexico deals with a long term economic stagnation that eats away at the state's foundation. At the annual Lobo Howl Friday, it had come to this: Fourth-year head coach Craig Neal, who rode his Harley Davidson motorcycle onto the court in 2013, shaved his head for charity in 2014 and dressed up in the Lobo Louie mascot uniform in 2015, did not address fans for the first half of the men’s hour on the court Friday night. He would not talk to media afterward or allow his players to do so. Neal follows in the footsteps of UNM executive vice president David Harris who recently stormed out of a TV news interview when asked about athletic department expenses. (It really is coming undone at UNM, folks, and we fear you haven't see anything yet.) Resistance by Athletic Director Krebs to resolve his department's big deficit ($1.5 million) by restructuring and downsizing the department continues. He is now warning that student fees may have to be hiked yet again to support a department that is no longer the center of the universe for today's students and which is looking too fat with 24 of its employees making over $100,000 a year. NMSU in Las Cruces this year gave an example of how to get the job done, shaving the athletic department budget and beginning the downsizing process. The UNM athletic department begs for new leadership that understands the new dynamic. What in the name of Tom Popejoy are the UNM Regents waiting for? This is the home of New Mexico politics. E-mail your news and comments. (jmonahan@ix.netcom.com) Interested in reaching New Mexico's most informed audience? Advertise here. (c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2016 Monday, October 17, 2016Shift In The Political Winds Has Dems Looking At Optimistic State Senate Scenario; Trump Card Soon To Be Played In Mailboxes in Key Legislatve Races; R's On Defense; "Creepy" GOP Flyer Freaks Voters: Plus: Bernie To ABQ For Hillary And SOS Candidates Clash At Their Only Debate
The most perplexing puzzle of 2016 has been over turnout. Would the wild and wooly presidential campaign drive voters to the polls in droves or keep them on their couches? The question is of paramount importance as a dip in turnout would favor the R's and put the Dems on defense. So where do we stand with early voting centers opening this Saturday and when thousands of New Mexicans will cast their ballots?
Veteran NM pollster Brian Sanderoff says look for neither a spike or a retreat in turnout. He forecasts that the total vote cast this year will be about 800,000. That's right in the neighborhood of 2012 and if it turns out to be accurate it will cause a sigh of relief for the Dems. Trump's final weeks strategy is to depress turnout through constant negativity. There's little question that the Dems have the wind at their back this cycle. Insider polling and news coverage shows that. Sanderoff and other experts note that the party winning at the top of the ticket usually sees that victory trickle into legislative races. SENATE SCENARIO The GOP's precarious hold on the state House has the insiders and wall-leaners turning their attention to the state Senate. The Guv's political machine, on a years-long winning streak that has decimated state Democrats, has been beating its chest about strengthening its hand in the Senate, but Dems are starting to speculate that it is they who could actually gain strength in the 42 member chamber. How? The Dems most optimistic scenario gets them a pick up of two seats. They hold on to the ABQ area seats of Senators Sapien (narrowly) and Ivey-Soto (with room to spare) and Senate Majority Leader Sanchez fends off a challenge in his Belen area seat. (We are watching the Sanchez challenge closely and our sources in the district say Republican Greg Baca has the race in play in the early going. Look for major money on both sides to explode soon.) In Las Cruces, Jeff Steinborn beats GOP Senator Lee Cotter and Sen. Soules hangs on to defeat Cel Levitano. Steinborn gives them one pick up and if Liz Stefanics of Santa Fe beats appointed incumbent GOP Senator Ted Barela they net two seats. That covers the seats in play and it would put the Senate in the Dems hands with a 26-16 majority, up from the current 24-18. There's still time for the wind to shift but the current political weather calls for dusting off scenarios where the down on their luck Dems finally get a break. TRUMP OR NOT? Now that the polling shows it will have an impact, expect mailboxes in the key legislative races to be flooded with an anti-Trump message as Dems work to drive a wedge between him and the GOP legislative candidates. Meanwhile, the R's continue to pound the Dems over the death penalty, sex offender laws and the like. GOP legislative candidates will be on the hot spot in the final weeks, deciding if and how they distance themselves from Trump but do not alienate their base voters. That's a defensive posture and why the voting models are now pointing more toward a Dem takeover of the House and no losses in the Senate and maybe even a gain. For example, Republican Diego Espinoza, fighting incumbent Dem Senator John Sapien in the swing district that includes parts of Rio Rancho and Corrales, has found himself tangled in the Trump trap: “I’m not here to endorse anyone for president,” Espinoza said. “Whoever I’m voting for, that is up to me." Espinoza also would not comment on recently leaked audio of Trump saying women let him “grab them by the pussy” because he is famous. This didn’t stop Sapien from linking his opponent to the controversial Republican presidential nominee. “I find it interesting that everywhere you see a Trump/Pence sign, you see a Diego Espinoza sign,” Sapien said. “The fact that he didn’t denounce Trump for his comments on Latinos and women is quite telling.” Will Espinoza's neutral Trump stance make the difference for Sapien? It's an open question but one Espinoza surely does not need and did not anticipate when he entered the contest. Hey, has anyone asked Republican ABQ Mayor Richard Berry if he is voting for Trump? Just wondering. TOUTING TRUMP Not all Republicans are having a hard time dealing with Trump. Rosie Tripp, the longtime NM GOP National Committeewoman and wife of NM House Speaker Don Tripp, is still waving the Trump banner high: While some Republican donors and elected officials have had it with Mr. Trump, another constituency. . . remains committed to the nominee: the 168 members of the national committee. In emails with The New York Times, some Republican state chairmen and chairwomen and national committee members affirmed their support for Mr. Trump and saluted (GOP Chairman) Mr. Priebus for standing by him. “He is our candidate,” Rosie Tripp, the Republican committeewoman from New Mexico, wrote to other members of the committee. “I am dismayed by our own Republicans who are bailing like rats off a ship. He who is without sin can cast the first stone. I am sure they are not as pure as the driven snow, either.” BERNIE TO 505 New Mexico finally got the attention of the Clinton campaign or should we say Gary Johnson got their attention. The former NM Governor and Libertarian Party presidential candidate has been polling well into the double digits here and much of that support is coming from the younger crowd, aged 18 to 34. The early October SurveyUSA gives Johnson 29 percent support in that demographic, compared to Trumps' 25% and Clinton's 37%. That may be eating into Hillary's numbers and the campaign may be compensating for it by sending in Senator Bernie Sanders, a favorite of the younger set and who almost beat Hillary in the June presidential primary here. Sanders will host a rally at 11 a.m. Tuesday morning at Mesa Vista Hall on the UNM campus. (To RSVP for that event go here.) Johnson was again campaigning in the state Sunday. He's spending a lot of time in his home state while he fades to 7 percent or so in the national polls. He scored 14% in the statewide vote in the recent SurveyUSA poll but the Clinton machine--with help from Bernie and other surrogates--can probably push that down some. "CREEPY" FLYER You may have seen this one. A flyer widely described on social media as "creepy" and put out by the NM GOP is freaking out some voters. It's a bizarre Orwellian pitch warning Republicans that if they don't vote and vote for Republicans "your neighbors will know" you didn't "do your part" to stop the Democrats. Pretty crazy even in a crazy year, don't you think? It was mailed out by the state GOP and when the spokesman for the party was asked about it by a reporter, he hung up the phone. Even he seems embarrassed over this big misstep that reflects poorly on NM GOP Chairwoman Debbie Maestas. How did she let this one out the door? And what's next? A flyer telling voters that if they watch a porno flick or something, the GOP is going to tell the neighbors? As we've said for many a year, the Republicans and the Guv's political machine hold aces when it comes to playing offense, but not so much on defense. And for them this is a defensive year. SOS CANDIDATES CLASH The race for secretary of state is probably getting more attention than usual because it's the only statewide executive office on the ballot this cycle, but that's probably good, considering the last Secretary of State, Dianna Duran, went to jail on campaign corruption charges. At their one and only debate of the season held Sunday at Congregation Albert in ABQ Dem Maggie Toulouse Oliver and Republican Nora Espinoza clashed over photo ID for voters, with Espziona favoring it and Oliver not so much. The issue polls well for the Republicans but doesn't seem to motivate voters much. That's probably because with all the talk of voter fraud hardly any is ever discovered. Oliver is on the TV airwaves blasting Espinoza on abortion, not exactly an issue of concern to the SOS but it shoves Espinoza to the right. Her campaign says Espinoza has bought $200,000 of TV for the final weeks of the campaign and they expect her to hit back. One problem for Espinoza is transparency. She and Oliver both pledge it, but Espinoza refused to be interviewed for the New Mexican's campaign profile and yesterday after the debate at Congregation Albert she had campaign manager Rod Adair answer reporters questions instead of doing the task herself. That left the impression that Adair, a former state senator and key player in the Duran SOS administration, is going to have an oversized say in any Espinoza administration. This race is fast moving toward the Dems, with the latest insider polling showing Oliver on the move. Espinoza needs to spend that $200k wisely. The hour long SOS debate can be seen here. Who won? Both candidates were well-prepared. Espinoza was constantly on the attack, but she had to be because she trails. Oliver was steady in her defense and landed some blows of her own. You wonder why ther tis only one debate between them. NO WRITE IN We joked on the Friday blog that maybe Gov. Martinez--who has not ruled in or ruled out voting for Trump--might write in her own name for president, but a number of readers, including Ken Long of ABQ, pointed out there is no way to do that: I contacted the state about how to write in a presidential candidate on the ballot for the general election. I was informed that all candidates need to register to be on the ballot before the deadline. There's no way to "write-in" a name in the voting booth. No write-ins for president? That one got by us. Remember how we would add up the votes for Mickey Mouse and the like? Come to think of it, Mickey is looking mighty appealing this year. This is the home of New Mexico politics. E-mail your news and comments. (jmonahan@ix.netcom.com) Interested in reaching New Mexico's most informed audience? Advertise here. (c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2016 |
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