Some thoughts on the 2017 legislative session that we also shared with readers of the ABQ Free Press.

Will the 60 day session of the NM Legislature beginning in mid-January be known as the "The Constitutional Amendment Session? With Gov. Martinez promising to wield her veto pen on pet Democratic proposals, the D's might consider an end run. How?

Lawmakers have the power to place constitutional amendments on the ballot for voter approval. For example, they have the votes to approve a bill substantially increasing the state's low $7.50 an hour minimum wage, but can't get the Governor to go along. If they put that raise in the form of a constitutional amendment it would easily win voter approval. But there's a catch .

Any constitutional amendments approved during the session would not go before voters until November of 2018 and take effect the following year. With the Dems having a good chance of recapturing the governorship in '18, they might want to ditch the amendment maneuver and send their minimum wage bills and the like to the Governor and force her to make unpopular vetoes. One other angle: If the Democrats did place popular legislation like the minimum wage boost on the '18 ballot it could serve to increase Democratic turnout and improve their chances of winning the governorship.

For those of you wondering about a possible constitutional amendment to legalize recreational use of marijuana in New Mexico, even with Democratic control of the Legislature it seems problematic. A number of Democrats have raised concerns about the impact of legal marijuana in our state which is already saddled with a myriad of substance abuse problems. The day of legalized marijuana here may be on the way but its arrival is best measured in years.

And what about the money? People are starting to really believe Gov. Martinez when she says that no matter how bad things get she will not agree to a tax increase. With the state's budget still under immense pressure because of falling energy prices, it appears Martinez could be the first Governor to preside over widespread state government layoffs. An improving state economy has to be at the top of the Christmas wish list for state employees. Otherwise, the grinch could soon be staring at them.

Perhaps the most significant election fallout will be simply what we talk about. Instead of the "all crime all the time" agenda the Republicans focused on, the newly empowered Democrats will switch the narrative. Now the subjects will be the high jobless rate, the ongoing depopulation and vanishing millennials and the social conditions crisis that worsened the crime wave the GOP unsuccessfully tried to use to keep their legislative power. There are no easy solutions to the state's deep-seated problems but identifying what they are is a start.

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Pete Domenici

What the Grateful Dead famously uttered certainly holds true for the post US Senate years of Pete Domenici: "What a long strange trip it's been."

Beginning in 1973 and running through 2008, Domenici accumulated respect, seniority and power as New Mexico's senior US senator. But if Domenici were a bond and Moody's was rating him, he would have suffered a couple of downgrades since his retirement announcement in 2007.

Around the time of that announcement it was disclosed that the then 75 year old Domenici was retiring because of a brain disease that impaired his cognitive abilities, but a year later a "miracle" (or more likely a misdiagnosis) occurred and Domenici was found to be free of the disease. That had the tongues wagging that Pete's "medical problems" were more of a political nature--that the US Senate Ethics Committee was about to lower the boom on him for his involvement in the US attorney scandal and that he was looking for a way out of Dodge. Here's our report on that from March of '07.

Then came the shocker that in the 1970's the then 46 year old Senator Domenici had fathered a love child with the  24 year old lobbyist daughter of Pete's fellow GOP Senator Paul Laxalt. That scandal cost Domenici dearly in the respect department but he trudged onward, sponsoring his yearly Domenici public affairs conference in Las Cruces and staying active in support of GOP candidates.

Now, at 84, Domenici's long goodbye gets more odd. Take a look:

Former Sen. Pete Domenici, a powerhouse of modern New Mexico politics, is moving back to New Mexico and will take on a new role as an advisor to state Land Commissioner Aubrey Dunn. Domenici, 84, has lived with his wife, Nancy, in the Washington D.C.-area for years, but they will be returning permanently to New Mexico in mid-January. Once back, Domenici will join the State Land Office as a senior advisor to Dunn, a first-term Republican. In the role, Domenici will provide advice on energy, natural resource and other policy issues, and will also help push a State Land Office proposal to create a new permanent fund for early childhood education.

Apparently the octogenarian Domenici is not going to donate his time to his home state. We asked the state land office about Pete's salary:

His role will mainly focus on education issues and land and water conservation. The details of the Senior Advisor role are still being determined.

In advance of his 2018 re-elect Dunn has been trying to position himself as a more moderate Republican. In that regard, Domenici can't hurt. But why the longest serving US Senator in state history would choose to play out his final act in a relatively minor office is, well, odd. Maybe if we play some Grateful Dead records backwards we'll be able to figure it out. For now, color us perplexed.

EARLY BIRD

Toulouse Oliver

The new secretary of state won't have to wait until the usual January 1 to take office. Maggie Toulouse Oliver will be sworn in soon, explains the SOS:

Secretary of State elect Maggie Toulouse Oliver will take the oath of office on December 9, 2016, at 4:00 pm in Santa Fe and will immediately assume the office. Current Secretary of State Brad Winter has served since he was appointed by Governor Martinez on December 15, 2015, due to the resignation of Dianna Duran.

The news that baby boomer pop icon Elton John will stop in ABQ for a March concert at Tingley Coliseum a couple of days before this 70th birthday gives rise yet again to the question of why in the world Tingley is still standing?

The Coliseum was built in 1957 and its heyday was decades ago. More recently critics have called the outdated and sometimes dilapidated structure an embarrassment and worse. With interest rates still low (but for how long?) now would be the time to tear down Tingley and construct a new large multi-purpose arena that would draw the acts of the future and send a signal to our fleeing millennial population that we are serious about providing quality of life amenities available in out of state cities only hours away.

Here's a plan: How about holding off on issuing the scads of senior citizen facility bonds for a couple of years and instead float a statewide bond issue to begin a rebuild of Tingley that is aimed at the young of today and future generations? The city and BernCo could devote some of their bonding capacity as well.

Clyde Tingley was a great ABQ mayor who helped build modern Albuquerque. He would be proud to have his name carry on into the new country but not atop what has become a symbol of a stagnant state that has stopped planning for its future. Will just one of the 112 legislators publicly declare it's time for a new Tingley and begin to tackle the financing? We mean sometime before Elton John turns 80?

FISCAL "FREEFALL"

“We don’t know where the bottom is yet on the freefall that we’re in." So declared Senate Finance Committee Chairman John Arthur Smith in reacting to the latest grim news over the state budget:

Revenue streams declined by more than 9 percent during the first quarter of the current fiscal year, state fiscal analysts announced.  The Legislative Finance Committee released figures that show general fund revenues fell to $1.3 billion for the three-month period ending in September--down 9.4 percent compared with the same period last year. Revenues for the month of September were down nearly 12 percent from a year ago.

The energy price crash remains the main culprit but the overall lethargic economy--as evidenced by lower personal income and gross receipts tax collections--is also to blame.

Sen. Smith calls it a fiscal freefall. Others call it an economic death spiral. The Legislature completed a special session in early October where the state budget was whacked with across the board budget cuts of five percent or more. But they left town still facing a deficit for the current budget year that began July 1 and ends June 30:

The solvency package, a mix of spending cuts and one-time fixes, will generate an estimated $370.8 million in savings for the current fiscal year. . . But it appears to not be enough to fully solve the state’s financial woes, as New Mexico is facing a projected $458 million shortfall for the budget year that started in July.

Now when they go back into session In January it will be even worse--by tens of millions of dollars.

We appear to be on the road from turning a crisis into a calamity with layoffs of hundreds of state employees a possibility. Already, the state Cultural Affairs Department has let workers go.

LIQUOR DEBATE

A reader suggested here that the state buy back the valuable liquor licenses out there and reset the rules so more small businesses can afford the licenses. James O'Neill of O'Neill consulting says not so fast:

The price of liquor licenses have soared here because of the overall cap on the number of licenses. The state could lower the free market price of licenses by eliminating or significantly raising the cap. The state does not need to buy the licenses back; in fact in might be unconstitutional for the state to try to do so. See 1981's Chronis v. State
ex rel Rodriquez. The licenses already belong to the state.

STATE OF THE CITY

In lieu of analyzing or commenting on ABQ Mayor Berry's annual state of the city speech this week, we instead offer this graphic of the city's crime rate. That about covers the state of the city for 2016.

Ya think?

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That was fast. We blogged a number of months ago that we expected in the years ahead a knock-down, drag out battle over taking more money out of the state's huge $15 billion Land Grant Permanent Fund to replenish the state's sagging general fund budget. Well, we're not going to have to wait years for the debate. Gov. Martinez is already fighting off Democrats who as a result of the election are in full command of the House and Senate. They are looking for revenue as she refuses to approve a tax hike under any circumstances:

Martinez wants incoming state lawmakers to know that the state’s permanent investment fund should be off limits from efforts to resolve a state budget deficit. Martinez and other members of the State Investment Council that oversees two sovereign wealth funds and $20.8 billion in assets discussed ways to tell newly elected legislators that the largest of its accounts - the State Land Grant Permanent Fund - should be managed as an endowment and not a rainy-day fund to be tapped in lean budget years.

Unless the state starts collecting enough revenue to stop the cutting and properly fund its public schools that $20 billion pot of money is going to prove irresistible and essential in keeping the state's doors open. Don't say we didn't tell you.

(By the way, a Constitutional Amendment to tap the $15 billion permanent fund requires only the approval of a simple majority of the House and Senate. It is then placed on the general election ballot for voter approval. The Governor is dealt out. Her approval is not required).

On the economy, a reader writes:

Hi Joe. I've moved from NM but still enjoy reading your blog. I didn't see you pick up on this article from the NY Times, so I figured I'd share it. NM is surrounded by states in the southwest that retain and attract college graduates. I left NM after many years as a professor at UNM. I now teach very similar students in another state. My current students aren't significantly different from UNM students, yet they are able to obtain much better opportunities upon graduation. The NM lottery scholarship has helped encourage more people to attend college within their home state, but they simply aren't able to find good opportunities upon graduation. Thanks for keeping us all informed. It makes me sad to see NM's economy go from bad to worse, but it is still valuable to follow what is going on.

OTHER VOICES AND IDEAS

Former Dona Ana County Dem state Senator Steve Fischmann writes with a different take on the lottery scholarship:

Repeal and replace the lottery scholarship. The average lottery ticket buyer has a family income of $40,000 or less. The average lottery scholarship recipient has a family income of $80,000 or more. Lottery ticket buyers pay $140 million annually to create just $40 million in scholarships for people who are less needy than they are. An efficiently funded, needs-based scholarship program is what New Mexico truly requires.

A reader writes:

Joe, I've been a loyal reader for many years. I read with much interest the article about the need for reforming the liquor license allocations and what a hindrance it is to small businesses that simply cannot afford them. They are at a distinct disadvantage to larger companies that can pay as much as $400,000 for a license. I understand that those who paid for these licenses are fiercely protective of their value, and who can blame them? But the system of quotas is terribly outdated and simply should be changed so that small businesses and owner operated establishments can compete. 

One solution would be to levy a tax of about 10% on liquor by the drink and use that money to buy up the existing licenses and cancel them, replacing the system with a license that is accessible to any responsible business no matter what their size. This would compensate those who invested in these licenses, and the tax could be canceled as soon as the existing licenses were purchased back from the owners. 

This may seem like a small thing to many readers, but it is actually one of many small things that leave us in a competitive disadvantage to our neighbors. We have to start somewhere. I for one would love to see many small chef owned restaurants and bars that can be on an equal footing with the big guys….Just like the many places I frequent in Arizona, Texas, and Oklahoma.

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Hanna Skandera

One of the more polarizing figures in the recent history of state government appears to be headed toward the exits. Public Education Secretary Hanna Skandera could be gone by the end of December, according to one of our Senior Alligators monitoring developments inside the education department. "She could leave as soon as Dec. 18th," he reports.

The word comes in the wake of President-elect Trump's appointment of Betsy DeVos as Secretary of Education. DeVos, an outspoken advocate for charter schools, has close connections to former Florida Governor Jeb Bush who Skandera served as Deputy Commissioner of Education.

The DeVos appointment would seem to clear the path for Skandera to get a job in DC. It would be a return trip for her. She was Deputy Chief of Staff to Education Secretary Margaret Spelling in the George W. Bush administration.

Skandera has been the highest profile cabinet member of the Governor's administration, aggressively pushing a reform agenda that has faced strident opposition from the education community, especially her move to implement teacher evaluations, third grade retention and the grading of the public schools.

Third grade retention has failed to pass the legislature, but the school grading made it through. The teacher evaluations adopted by Skandera continue to be challenged in the courts.

While Skandera's foes have cast her as the boogie man, she drew wide encouragement and praise from the GOP base and the business community where her popularity remains intact. Her supporters argue much of the blame for the state's failure to advance in the rankings is due to a reform-resistant Democratic-controlled state Senate.

The six year run of the Martinez-Skandera agenda appears to have had limited impact on the state's traditionally poor performing public schools. In the most recent WalletHub national rankings of "School System Quality" New Mexico placed 50th.

The state ranked 49th in the nation in Quality Counts 2016, the annual report from the Education Week Research Center. However, while still suffering from a low high school graduation rate, New Mexico has seen some improvement in the category.

At 43, Skandera is in the middle of her career but she will no doubt look back at her New Mexico stint as one of her most challenging. As she does the curse of former NM Territorial Governor Lew Wallace may come to mind: "All calculations based on our experiences elsewhere fail in New Mexico."

Hasta luego, Hanna.

PRESIDENTIAL POLLING

A number of readers have asked about that new polling outfit that popped up in the middle of the election. One of the common inquiries is whether the Zia Poll is independent or partisan? Well, we have some details.

The parent company of the Zia Poll is Dialing Services LLC out of Roswell. That is the same company that owns GOP Calls and has the same physical address in Roswell. The team listed on the Zia Poll is identical to the team on GOP Calls which says on its website:

We have provided automated calls and political calling solutions for prominent political leaders and advocacy groups including: Romney for President, The 2000 & 2004 Bush/Cheney campaigns, the 2000 & 2004 Texas Victory campaigns, Senator Pete Domenici, Congressmen Pete Sessions, Heather Wilson, and countless others. Our track record and experience speaks for itself.

The Zia Poll is open about its association with Dialing Services. The poll primarily uses robo calls to landlines and tries to reach cellphone users--who can't legally be contacted by robo calls--to get them to volunteer to take the poll.

In its last poll of the season Zia boasted of surveying over 8,000 voters the Sunday before the election. That poll was was released the next day--the Monday before the election. Despite the large sample the poll missed the mark, giving Clinton 45.9 percent to Trump's 43.9 and Johnson with 6 percent. Zia Poll then posed the question: "Could New Mexico be a toss-up?" No, it never was.

Clinton beat Trump here 48.26% to 40.04% and Johnson received 9.34%. The Zia Poll's margin of error was put at only 1.8 percent so the miss was notable.

Meanwhile, the ABQ Journal's Research and Polling survey conducted Nov 1-3 and released the Sunday before the election had Clinton leading Trump 45 to 40 percent, with Johnson at 11 percent. Pollster Brian Sanderoff did not wonder if the race was a toss-up:

New Mexico has been solidly blue in the past two elections, and it appears Clinton is maintaining her lead here this election cycle, unlike in some battleground states, such as Ohio or Nevada, where she is either trailing or in a dead heat.

The Journal polled only 504 likely voters but about half the calls were to voters with cellphones and half to landlines. The poll's margin of error was 4.4%

This is not to say the Zia Poll and Dialing Services LLC are trying to put one over on anyone but in the media reporting of their poll findings there was no mention of their deep ties to the GOP or much comment on their over dependence on landlines in the cellphone era. Both are significant facts to know in analyzing their results, and now they have been mentioned.

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