Saturday, May 26, 2018

Second Poll Confirms Martinez Lead in ABQ Congressional Battle; Results And Analysis 

It's now two public polls that have former US Attorney Damon Martinez holding a narrow lead in the six way race for the Democratic nomination for the ABQ area U.S. House seat.

The ABQ Journal survey conducted May 20-24 and released today has Martinez winning 22 percent support; Deb Haaland at 19 and Antoinette Sedillo Lopez getting 17 percent.

The Journal poll was conducted with landlines and cellphones. In a robocall poll of landlines only that we conducted for our blog May 24, Martinez led with 27 percent; Sedillo Lopez was second with 23 and Haaland garnered 19.

The margin of error in the Journal survey is 4.9 percent and in the robocall poll it's 5.8 percent. Those are margins large enough to keep Haaland and Sedillo Lopez in the race, but for now Martinez is the definitive front-runner.

The undecided in the Journal poll is very high, at 29 percent. Our survey had it at 19. Both numbers are more than enough to send the race in a new direction in the final days.

And that new direction could come if a $200,000 ad buy from an independent expenditure group affiliated with Emily's List brings Martinez down a notch. The ad crtiticizes him for not prosecuting any ABQ police officers for 27 fatal police shootings. His supporters say that was the job of the BernCo district attorney, not the US Attorney.

The ad is here.

The ad starts Tuesday, a week before the June 5 primary, but it will have no impact on the many who have already voted early. However, the biggest early vote days will come at the end of next week and could be influenced by the negative TV.

In both surveys the other three candidates are way back. The Journal poll has Pat Davis at 5%; Damian Lara at 4 and Paul Moya at 3.

A final note. The high undecided this late in the campaign seems to indicate that none of the candidates have captured the hearts of the Democratic primary electorate and that we are unlikely to see a surge in turnout as we did in the ABQ mayoral race last year when progressives flocked to Democrat Tim Keller. Also, the lack of competition in the  Dem Guv primary may serve to keep turnout down.

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