New Mexico was stunned Wednesday and for a change it was not because of a horrific crime. The beancounters for the Legislative Finance Committee delivered a jaw dropping forecast. They said that because of the bull market in oil production in the SE Permian Basin revenue to the state general fund for the budget year starting next July will soar an "astonishing" $1.2 billion. That's an 18 percent increase that will send our 112 lawmakers into near delirium on how to spend the unexpected loot when they convene in January.

“New money,” defined as projected recurring revenues for the following fiscal year less current year recurring appropriations, is estimated at an astonishing $1.2 billion for FY20, or 18 percent growth from the FY19 recurring budget. 

By golly, if the beancounters are "astonished" the rest of us are floored. Previous estimates of the possible surplus were half that amount.


Now, at least for a while, there will finally be money for them to get something done--build a school addition, improve a local park. pave a worn out street--all the stuff that puts a smile on the faces of both legislators and their constituents.

Even if the hawks are successful in creating a too large reserve of 20 percent of the total budget--on top of a new rainy day fund that mandates additional savings in flush years---there will be literally hundreds of millions of dollars to shore up accounts depleted during the downturn and increase funding for the schools which take the lion's share of the budget.

The current budget is $6.3 billion. The new one is going to perhaps touch $7 billion or more, finally catching up some with the rate of inflation that along with severe budget cuts decimated state accounts and, some would argue, vital public services.

ABQ Dem State Senator Michael Padilla seemed to sum up the consensus when he told me:

Education. From neonatal to higher ed. That's our best bet. Investing in that is the long term key to our economic success and this money is an opportunity to do just that."

SERENDIPITY AT WORK

The budget forecast was serendipitous, coming as it did only weeks after a district judge ruled the state is in violation of the Constitution for not properly funding the public schools and in the process disenfranchising minority students. Charles Goodmacher of the NEA:

Not only is there a surplus, but there is also the judge's mandate to begin to move towards sufficient funding the schools. It’s the perfect opportunity for N.M. to jump start satisfying our Constitutional obligations to sufficiently funds the schools! 

Well, there were a lot of exclamation points going around as the news spread, including from the two candidates for Governor who may want the job more than ever now that there is cash in the bank. Even crusty old Steve Pearce, as conservative as they come, is finally ready to party it up:

We must take this opportunity to get more funds to our schools, improve our mental health system, cut taxes on Social Security for seniors, and make cash payments on strategic infrastructure projects like broadband, roads, and wastewater. We should also ensure our reserves are adequately funded.

Welcome to the party, Steve. We've been waiting for you.

A couple of weeks ago Dem contender Michelle Lujan Grisham called herself a "fiscal conservative." Well, uh, times change. She said of the surplus:

We must fund statewide universal Pre-K, increase educator salaries and fund apprenticeships and skills training through community colleges and high schools to prepare workers for good-paying jobs.

There are a number of caveats as the Dom Perignon flows again at the Roundhouse (or at least at the Bull Ring). The $1.2 billion is not revenue that will necessarily recur year after year, meaning that much of it will probably be spent on one time projects. But oil production--at record levels and predicted to continue for several years--will probably give lawmakers the courage to give education spending a permanent boost, betting that oil prices stay steady.

CYFD: MONEY NOT PROBLEM

Senator Padilla says money is not a major problem with the troubled agency, that it has actually been returning money to the general fund even as social worker vacancies persist and the violence against children makes headlines. He says he looks forward to seeing the funds spent in a new administration. Another problem, he says, is the delay in fixing the CYFD case management system that would help track and curb violence. He is calling on the Martinez administration to get the job done in its waning days.

CALLING TASKUS

There was some more good economic news Wednesday when it was announced that TaskUs, a customer service center for tech firms, will come to ABQ and plans to hire about 700 workers for its downtown call center over the next five years, starting next year.

Now some may pooh-pooh the idea of more call center employment, and we used to be among them. But the dream of high tech or other employment that attract Millennials and pays north of $60,000 a year is not happening here--and for a variety of reasons discussed ad nauseum on your blog--is not going to happen anytime soon.

So as college degree holding Millennials flee to neighboring states, we still have a job to do in providing employment for the youth and others that do stay but do not have high level education credentials. Call centers work well for the low-wage, service economy that has become the primary driver of the private sector here.

TaskUs did not provide a salary range for the jobs but some quick research shows the average pay for their customer service rep ranges from $12 to $14 an hour. There will be a number of other management jobs that pay substantially more that will bring the "average pay" of the workforce up, but a full-time customer rep would appear to take in something in the mid to high 20's. Company employees posting on the Internet praise the work environment and benefits offered, if not the salaries.

In announcing the TaskUs deal, the elected officials seem to be trying to spin this as a breakthrough in high tech employment. No one wanted to say "call center."

That warm hug Steve and Michelle shared Tuesday at a joint ABQ appearance turned into an icy stare only hours later when a PAC funded by the Democratic Governors Association launched the first negative TV ad of the '16 gubernatorial race, accusing Republican Pearce of being one of the most corrupt members of Congress.

Never mind that the ad was a rehash of charges against Pearce that voters vetted in his 2010 congressional race, the spot was clearly a preemptive strike against Pearce and the R's. They are preparing to go negative on MLG for her role in Delta Consulting, a health care firm. Responding to the $275,000 TV buy, the state GOP slammed back with Delta:

New Mexicans deserve better than recycled smear tactics and outright lies by shady front groups. This ad is a laughable attempt by Lujan Grisham's allies to distract from the fact that her entire political career has been about lining her pocket off of sick people through her corrupt Delta Consulting scam and then lying to Congress about the extent of it.

Delta first popped up on the political radar late in the June primary. MLG's Dem foes--to no avail--tried to use allegations that the state contracts Delta received were the result of political wire jobs that benefited her and ABQ Dem Rep. Deborah Armstrong, another owner of Delta who is also MLG's campaign treasurer.

With all that in mind the national Dems came with this script:

Congressman Steve Pearce: in the pocket of Big Oil. He was twice named one of the ‘Most Corrupt Members of Congress' by an independent watchdog group. He made millions selling his company's assets for twice its stated value to an oil company that testified before his task force.  And Pearce took millions in campaign contributions from oil and gas and weakened laws protecting us from pollution. Named one of the most corrupt in Congress, we just can't trust Steve Pearce.

As we said, a lot of that is a rehash but many voters won't realize it and it is sure to put a check on Pearce when he comes with the Delta hits on MLG. From the nonpartisan FactCheck.org in 2010:

The "corrupt" accusation, while technically accurate, is nevertheless misleading. Based on two unsubstantiated allegations, a left-learning watchdog group branded Pearce "corrupt." Pearce was officially cleared of one of those allegations by the House ethics committee. Furthermore, the watchdog group acknowledged it made a mistake in failing to report the committee’s decision when it repeated its "corrupt" rating most recently in a 2008 report. . . While Pearce did sell the assets of Lea Fishing Tools to Key Energy for more than twice the value that he had reported on his personal financial disclosure forms, the newspaper reported that it “found no evidence that Pearce has taken any legislative action to specifically benefit Key Energy Services.”

The Dem attack came only hours after an Emerson College poll showed MLG leading Pearce by only two points--42-40. This ad was not a reaction to those numbers. Not an Alligator worth his red meat believes the race is that close. But the Dems want to make sure it doesn't get in that range so they decided to hit before she got hit.

MIMI'S SWITCH

Say it isn't so, Mimi! Those were the cries heard in the wake of what seemed to be a policy reversal from longtime liberal ABQ lawmaker Mimi Stewart.

The former state Rep turned state Senator got into a Twitter discussion with ABQ Dem State Rep. Javier Martinez over the proposed constitutional amendment that would ask voters to tap a small portion of the state's nearly $18 billion Land Grant Permanent Fund and devote it to early childhood education. Martinez, one of the sponsors of the amendment, tweeted this about a photo of his two children:

Happy kids. Healthy kids. I want every kid to be cared for the way these two are. We can do this, NM. Join us.

Then came the surprise rejoinder from Stewart, the senate majority whip who just this past February voted in committee to approve the constitutional amendment which had passed the House but ultimately died in the Senate:

Just don't limit the way we pay for educating our young children. A constitutional amendment not always the best choice. Consider other options.

And as often happens in these cases, an Alligator strike was immediately set off by Stewart's back-off:

Why is a “progressive champion” like Mimi Stewart backtracking on the most transformational investment we can make in public education? At a time when progressive Democrats have all but taken over the NM House and increasingly the NM Senate, and when MLG is supporting the measure, it seems foolish to be wavering on this proposal after a long and hard fought seven years. This proposal stands to benefit children of color, primarily. 80% of NM’s children are children of color. Yet the opportunity gap for these kids continues to grow. It’s time for Dems to put their money where their mouth is. 

Maybe Stewart, a retired public school teacher in ABQ, is listening to some of the disgruntled in the public education ranks--particularly in unions--who are upset that little if any of the money from the constitutional amendment is earmarked for public education?

RICH POLL

The polls continue to flow. This one comes from GOP US Senate nominee Mick Rich who received a measly 11 percent in the Emerson College survey released this week, compared to 39 percent for Dem Senator Martin Heinrich and 21 percent for Libertarian Gary Johnson.

Rich's camp sees it differently. reporting that its survey of 500 likely voters taken July 31-August 2 had it Heinrich--41--Rich--34--Johnson--19--undecided--5. The poll was conducted by the Tarrance Group, a longtime and expensive polling firm. If Mick has money for them, can he scare up enough for a decent TV buy? He only had about $200 grand in the bank at last report.

On our Tuesday blog we said that so far there have been only two public polls on the NM Governor's race. Actually, there are three. Carroll Strategies, an ABQ PR firm, did one for KOB-TV in June that we reported on but forgot. It showed Lujan Grisham at 51 and Pearce at 43. However, Real Clear Politics, which was our source for the number of polls taken, does not include Carroll Strategies which polls only occasionally and relies exclusively on land line calls. Maybe they will in the future.

TIM AND DONALD

Perhaps ABQ Mayor Tim Keller should send a little something to the White House now that the Feds have taken him off the hook and agreed to come up with that long awaited  $75 million to pay for the controversial ART project on Central Avenue. It was feared that the bad blood the state has had with the Prez could mean we would be denied the funds. Of course, who gets that money? Mostly Republican contractors with a friend on Pennsylvania Avenue.

Now, the city needs buses that work with ART and we're here to help. Take a look at this, Tim. It's a "lost ART bus" courtesy of one of the Alligators. We don't know the exact location of the "lost bus" but maybe you can have Lawrence Rael and Alan Armijo go look for it on their lunch hour. They know the town pretty well. Happy hunting, fellas. . .

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Sorber, Journal

After we wrote this blog the first negative TV ads against Pearce began Tuesday morning, paid for by a political action committee. The ad calls Pearce one of the most "corrupt" members of Congress. The name of the PAC is "Strong New Mexico" and is funded by the Democratic Governors Association. The ad is here.

State Republicans quickly latched on to a new poll Monday that showed Republican Guv nominee Steve Pearce trailing Dem contender Michelle Lujan Grisham by the narrow margin of 42-40 with 18 percent undecided. The state party argued the Emerson Poll out of Massachusetts "shows the race in a statistical tie, giving local and national Democratic Party leaders plenty of reason to panic."

Well, no signs of panic in the Dem camp yet. One reason is that the Emerson survey is another of those that do not do live cellphone interviews, relying on landlines and an on-line panel of voters. Also, the poll does not call "likely" voters but only registered voters who say they plan on voting. Likely voters are those who have a demonstrated history of voting in recent state elections. Emerson said the margin of error in the survey of 500 registered voters August 17-18 is 4.6 percent.

Still, with few organizations willing to put up the cash for the more expensive cellphone surveys, they garner attention. And polling experts say in lower turnout mid-term elections their accuracy tends to be better than in higher turnout presidential years. Perhaps the best way to view this is by averaging all the polls--no matter the methodology.

So far in the race of Governor there are only two public polls. The aforementioned Emerson poll and the SurveyUSA conducted for KOB-TV June 19-23. SurveyUSA had the race 51 to 38 in favor of Lujan Grisham and Emerson had her up two. So the average of those polls has her leading Pearce by 7.5 percent. If that were the case on Election Night she would win by 54-46.

CONCERN IN NORTH

There is concern in the Democratic camp about the Hispanic North, a traditionally Democratic area that Pearce has worked hard. In the Emerson survey Pearce actually beats Lujan Grisham in the northern congressional district 46 to 42.

That will be greeted with a large dose of skepticism but anecdotal evidence shows Pearce making progress with Hispanic men. He was just endorsed by former NM Dem Governor Jerry Apodaca and he has numerous signs up in the northern district. With men overall Pearce beats MLG 45 to 38 while she has a lopsided lead with women--45 to 36.

Lujan Grisham's campaign is aware of the gender gap and this week rolled out a video endorsement of her candidacy from Las Cruces area State Senator Joe Cervantes who she beat in the recent Dem primary, along with Jeff Apodaca, son of the aforementioned Jerry Apodaca who continues to egg on her opposition.

MLG TOO VANILLA?

Among some of the Alligators Lujan Grisham's TV is derided as "too vanilla" and then there's the progressive wing's disappointment with her statements to the ABQ Journal in which she threw them overboard on key issues. Those are matters that could be holding back enthusiasm for her.

Pearce's TV ads are getting better reviews. All of them have a single-minded focus on jobs. He came with another this week in which he teases that New Mexico might be able to get an Amazon fulfillment center, although the tech company recently passed over the state for its new headquarters.

Most important for the Dems, MLG's firewall in the ABQ area, which she represents in the Congress, continues to hold in the Emerson poll where she leads 48 to 32. That's the most populous of the three congressional districts and where voters are expected to cast ballots in a higher percentage than the rural areas where Pearce is strongest.

So no panic yet for the Dems as much as the GOP would like to see some. But Pearce is defying the Democratic optimists who had hoped by now the race would be closed out in a state with such a clear Democratic majority and an unpopular incumbent Republican Governor who earned only a 30 percent approval rating in Emerson (Trump had a favorable rating of 35 percent).

STILL PEACEFUL

MLG and Pearce appeared together before an ABQ business group Monday where they both answered the same questions, but there was no negativity between the two. In fact, there may be gasps over the photo posted at the top of the blog of the gubernatorial combatants giving each other a hug at the conclusion of the hour long session.

Some Pearce supporters are already nervous that he is waiting too long to build the negative case against MLG while her camp is pretty much ecstatic that he is taking his time. Then there are the Trump supporters who look at this snapshot today and say, "No surprise. Both are DC swamp creatures!"

Anyone who likes green chile knows that both of the hopefuls have their itchy fingers on the negative campaign trigger and are ready to fire. The only suspense is who will pull their trigger first.

As for the joint appearance before NAIOP, when an event ends with a headline about how Pearce and MLG squabbled over the dead-as-a-doornail issue of right-to-work, that's a win for the Democrat.

SENATE NUMBERS

Emerson also surveyed the NM US Senate race. Dem Senator Martin Heinrich polled at 39 percent while former GOP Governor Gary Johnson, running as a Libertarian, came in with 21 and Republican Mick Rich at only 11 percent. The Rich number was the eyebrow raiser but he has raised little money and done no major media. And Johnson pulls significant GOP support having been their Governor for eight years.

The problem for Johnson is that his name ID is near 100 percent in the state. How does he make a major polling leap when folks already have firm opinions about him? That 21 percent number is about where he started in NM when he ran for president as the 2016 Libertarian nominee. He ended up getting 9 percent here on Election Night. Could that scenario be repeating and Rich, with hardly any name ID, gets the biggest surge in the next poll as GOP voters come home?

HELPING HEINRICH

In a way the Johnson challenge could actually help Heinrich. His critics accuse him of "going Washington" and being detached from New Mexico. They point to his deep involvement in the Russia story and esoteric national security issues. It probably wasn't coincidental that Heinrich's first TV spot shows him driving a pick-up truck and meeting up with ordinary New Mexicans across the state. The ad guys probably heard Gary's footsteps when they cut that spot.

By the way, while the Libertarian Party of NM is heavily promoting tonight's ABQ kick-off of the Johnson campaign in ABQ, they say the event is actually being paid for by the SuperPAC supporting his run.

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Liberal US Senator Elizabeth Warren has jumped into the New Mexico Senate race as the contest gets recalibrated with former NM Governor Gary Johnson accepting the Libertarian Party nomination and Republican nominee Mick Rich struggling to stay relevant.

In a twitter post Warren lambasted Johnson for supporting "abolishing the minimum wage, raising the Social Security retirement age and gutting health care." She adds that Johnson "jumped into the race against my friend Martin Heinrich."