The buzz around Balderas was near deafening. Would he get in and thus split the important Hispanic vote and attempt to deny Ben Ray? In the end the AG made the smart move and a lot fewer enemies. On rock radio 102.FM in ABQ and in a 40 second video he explained his reasons:

The first is of course, I love being attorney general. I wanted to continue to serve my community by staying in my community. Secondly for me it was a personal decision. I’ve now become a legal guardian of my adult daughter Ariana.… Quite frankly we couldn’t survive the travel schedule of a United States senator right now, flying every day to D.C. and all over the world. It’s just not in the cards right now for me.”

Balderas' daughter has Downs Syndrome.

His announcement seemed to rule out a run for the Lujan US House seat since the travel demands on a congressman are even more intense than those of a Senator.

There's not much visibility for a political future for Balderas who will finish his second and final term as AG in 2022. He made a 2012 run for US Senate and was stopped in the primary by Martin Heinrich. Last year he was moving toward running for Governor but backed off in the face of the muscle shown by MLG. And now this final attempt to take a bite out of the apple comes up short. Maybe down the road, another attempt at Governor? But that's a long, long way off. His political candle is not entirely snuffed out but it is now only a flicker.

PEBBLES WASHED AWAY

For Lujan, Balderas represented the final pebbles in the road on his path to the nomination. No other major Hispanic contenders are expected to challenge him and without two major Hispanic candidates splitting the vote the door appears shut on Secretary of State Maggie Toulouse Oliver. DC Dems want ABQ Rep. Deb Haaland to stay put in the seat she was just elected to in November and while Plame would add star power to the race, a victory would be an upset that defies description.

(In a first draft Thursday we said Plame was married to former Ambassador Wilson. They are divorced.)

Now that he has cleared the field of major threats, Inside Elections in DC (run by Nathan Gonzales) quotes sources as saying Lujan will make his candidacy official Monday. That will further freeze the field and give the 46 year old five term lawmaker the freedom to establish his own pace and define the messaging for the primary as well as the general election.

In a way it's almost comical or surreal. No one has even officially announced and we and others have been covering what will likely be recorded as the most crucial days of the 2020 US Senate race. From here on out, its Lujan's to lose.

NORTHERN ACTION

The list of potential Democratic candies to replace Ben Ray in his northern seat is growing as long as your arm. (No R's need apply in this most Democratic of congressional districts).

The Alligators have Public Regulation Commissioner Valerie Espinoza, a former Santa Fe county clerk, as a possible early front-runner for the Dem nod. Her PRC district covers much of the congressional district, she is an experienced campaigner, can raise money and would be the first woman to represent the seat. However, Santa Fe City Councilor Rene Villarrael is also one to watch, a well-liked councilor and a lifelong friend of Congressman Lujan.

It is anything but a done deal. This one is going to cause binge watching among the political junkies. and their screens will be filled with plots and subplots.

The possibles include Santa Fe County District Attorney Marco Serna; Santa Fe City Councilor Rene Villarrael; State Rep. Andrea Romero; former State Rep. Carl Trujillo and Santa Fe State Rep. Linda Trujillo And New Mexico House Speaker Brian Egolf. That's just for starters. Our keyboard batteries would lose their charge if we kept going.

And there you have the week that was, about as pumped up with political adrenaline as it gets.

Thanks for joining us. 

P. S. If you’re hanging in Santa Fe Sunday morning around 11 stop by the Collected Works Bookstore on Galisteo Street where we will update the latest from New Mexico politics for Journey Santa Fe.

I'm Joe Monahan, reporting to you from Albuquerque, NM.

This is the home of New Mexico politics.

E-mail your news and comments. (jmonahan@ix.netcom.com)

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Will we get our first official candidate for the Democratic race for the 2020 US Senate nomination today?

Attorney General Hector Balderas will make his move when he appears at 9:30 a.m on ABQ rock radio 102.5 FM and at the same time releases a video on his social media.

If he is having second thoughts about Senate, why not take a look at the northern US House seat that Rep. Ben Ray Lujan would give up if he ran for the Senate? That's nothing to sneeze at.

Check back with us at midday for the latest and a bit of analysis. Meanwhile, you don't have to have official candidates to have action on the campaign trail. . .

No sooner had Balderas made known his announcement plans than the national PAC Latino Victory Fund, which recruits Hispanic candidates, appeared to move to offset any Balderas Big Mo and boosted Rep. Ben Ray Lujan with a "Run, Ben Ray, Run!” digital campaign. And they made sure to try to push Balderas to the right:

Luján has been a tireless advocate and progressive champion for the people of New Mexico and the Latino community across the country, His unparalleled experience and bold leadership style will serve New Mexico well in the United States Senate,

Progressive being the key word which does not immediately bring to mind Hector Balderas of Wagon Mound. But he'll have plenty of time to remake his image to appeal to that more liberal wing of his party.

Fans of Secretary of State Maggie Toulouse Oliver were on pins and needles hoping that Balderas does pull the trigger. That would give the Dems two well-known Hispanic males vying for the nomination and an opening, they say, for a woman like Toulouse Oliver.

It makes sense. And it would make even more sense if she can manage to raise $3 million. That's the challenge she has to mull over before she makes the leap.

IS PLAME GAME?

Valerie Plame

Maggie might not be the only Anglo liberal woman with a big name who sees an opening if Hector and Ben Ray are both competing. Santa Fe's Valerie Plame tells me she is mulling over a Senate bid:

I am considering stepping up. It is daunting, but enticing as well thinking of how to serve my adopted state of New Mexico.

Plame gained national attention when her cover as a covert operations officer for the CIA was blown by a conservative columnist in 2003. She said it was payback from the Bush White House for her then husband, Ambassador Joseph Wilson, questioning the Iraq war. It became the scandal du jour.

Since then Plame, 55, has become a successful author and public speaker and part of the Santa Fe social whirl.

Could she raise funding from her national connections? And would she appeal to the numerous Deb Haaland/Lujan Grisham/Toulouse Oliver progressive women in big BernCo?

At the least Plame's early play gives those women pause before they hop aboard the Maggie train. There may be another one to catch before this game is over.

RUN JUDY RUN?

The R's continue to float possible Senate names. An intriguing one is NM Supreme Court Chief Justice Judy Nakamura who is popular in vote heavy Bernalillo County.

If this were the New Mexico of ten years ago, we would say "look out." But it's rough sledding for any R in this era, even for an accomplished and moderate personality like Nakamura.

But having her on the ballot would certainly consolidate the R vote and perhaps help with some of the closer down-ballot races. But why disrupt your quiet, contemplative judicial life to hear about all the bad things you did while in the third grade? Surprise us, Judy. Or keep searching, Republicans.

And here's one that must be driving NM GOP Chairman Steve Pearce up the walls. Former Roswell State Senator Rod Adair is said by GOP operatives to be making calls to test the waters for a run for the GOP Senate nomination. Adair, a GOP firebrand and ally of former Gov. Martinez, has long been a nemesis for Pearce who represents the other wing of the GOP.

Better get busy and get someone to run, Steve, or you might have to hold Rod's hand up in the air on primary election night.

SITEL SAYONARA

The ABQ economy continues to show fragility. And this one is a big hit:

Sitel is closing its call center in Albuquerque this year. Employees were notified about the closure on Wednesday. The company said it has more than 700 full-time employees in Albuquerque.

The company laid off 1,000 in Colorado Springs last year as it shifts its operations overseas and to cheaper labor.

Last November defense contractor Honeywell announced it would shut its ABQ plant and lay off hundreds. The company is said to employ up to 500 in mostly high-paying jobs. Those layoffs are being sprinkled over this year and now join the 700 being lost at Sitel.

That erases the 900 call center jobs that are scheduled to come online over the next three to five years in downtown ABQ. And that’s what you call one step forward and two steps back.

(In an interview with the Santa Fe New Mexican late Tuesday Lujan confirmed the POLITICO report, saying he is “seriously considering” the Senate race.)

His ten years as a congressman with national credentials would have strong appeal to voters. The fact that he could be the state's first Hispanic Senator in nearly 45 years would also excite a large swath of the state Democratic Party. The timing looks right.

But Lujan's potential foes are not laying down their arms, not just yet. Their backers opined that Lujan has "not been tested" in a statewide race, that he is not that well-known in ABQ and that the Politico piece was aimed at trying clear the field without making a decision.

If Lujan does get in, the field of big names should be thinned considerably. Right now that field is frozen solid waiting for Lujan's decision.

But one or two names may linger even if Lujan gives it a go. Attorney General Hector Balderas could or could not be one of them. Raising the money to compete with Lujan would be a tall mountain to climb as would fighting for the Hispanic vote.

We won't have to wait long. Balderas' campaign says he will make an announcement concerning his potential candidacy Thursday at 9:30 a.m. on ABQ radio station 102.5 FM and release a video at the same time. 

Secretary of State Maggie Toulouse Oliver could hang around since she doesn't have to give up her day job to make the run. But where would the money come?

ABQ Rep. Deb Haaland has good name ID in ABQ but are you going to gamble the congressional seat you just won to take on a five term congressman who is arguably a national powerhouse?

Ditto for southern US Rep. Xochitl Torres Small. You are going to do what after serving just a couple of months in the House? Give it up for a long shot?

Right about now Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer is liking what he sees. Lujan inching closer to a candidacy thus avoiding a nasty, internecine war that is shaping up if Lujan doesn't get in.

The Politico article puts Lujan on the doorstep of a candidacy. His foot should come through the door soon.

WHY THE SENATE?

Sen. Chavez

When he finally does decide it will set the course for the campaign to come for the Senate seat to be vacated next year by Dem Senator Udall.

The frantic chatter and near panic in the circles of possible candidates in the immediate aftermath of Udall's surprise retirement announcement quickly gave way to the realization that the contest is now in the hands of the politically savvy northern New Mexico lawmaker whose guile and work ethic have placed him in the upper tier of the leadership ranks of the U.S House of Representatives. Now he could take those skills into the US Senate and there are many good reasons why he may try.

The conventional wisdom has the 46 year old staying put in the US House because he is now Assistant Speaker, #4 in the Dem leadership ranks and not an unlikely prospect for either majority leader or Speaker of the House in the foreseeable future. Why would anyone give up that position to become a junior member of the Senate? Well. . .

That "foreseeable future" means that there will soon be a fight for power in the House as the veteran leadership there ages out, but there is no guarantee Lujan will win that fight. He has many competent competitors waiting to mix it up with him. And his longtime patron, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, 78, will soon say goodbye to the Hill, leaving Lujan without the ally who paved the way for him.

From his vantage point the US Senate may look less murky. He would be one of 100 not one of 435. The leadership there is also aging and soon there will be power struggles for succession. A skilled political player like Lujan could in a relatively short period position himself for leadership. Right now the Rs have the Senate majority but that is sure to change a number of times in the decades ahead. And being in the minority in the Senate is a much more comfortable place than the House.

Lujan's pluses include his relative youth. He would only be 48 if he took office in 2021.

Then there is his heritage. As a Hispanic Democratic Senator he would not give up any of the visibility he currently enjoys on the national stage, In fact, it would probably increase because he would be representing the fastest growing demographic in the Democratic Party which would push him even more to the fore.

Then there is New Mexico. Once in the seat a Senator here rarely loses it. Lujan could look out at the next three decades and see himself accumulating power and prestige that might only be rivaled in the state's history by the legendary Dennis Chavez who served from 1935-1962.

Securing the chairmanship of a powerful committee or even majority leader will play out in his mind's eye as he weighs his decision. In a buoyant mood he might allow himself to entertain the thought of even surpassing Chavez's legend. Then his mind may wander back to the House where the mud wrestling never ends.

That's where you must run every two years and travel ceaselessly. Where you can accumulate power but where it is much more diffuse than the Senate. In the Senate you can get things done. You can bring home the bacon in a big way. Only Speaker of the House comes without the baggage. He has to ask himself how close am I to that really? Do I have the staying power in the House that I would have in the Senate? It could be years before I get a second shot if the first one comes up short. Things can change fast in the lower chamber. In the Senate you can age like fine wine. If you're not careful, in the House you can age like you're in a nursing home.

Lujan has said he will mull over his decision about a run for the Democratic nomination for Senate "in the weeks to come."  That's driving other potential candidates crazy as they wait him out. But that's how it is when you're dealing with a man who has time on his side.

FOLLOW THE MONEY

Lujan knows where the money is. His recent stint as chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee put him in contact with the major donors across the nation. And if his announcement clears the field of any serious rivals--as expected--the cost of the primary could plummet. At the end of the year Lujan had $379,000 in his campaign account, plenty to do some polling before he makes a final decision.

Supporters of ABQ Rep. Deb Haaland who would like to see her in the Senate are already tearing apart Attorney General Balderas. Haaland's backers say the party has passed Hector by, that he is way too conservative to get the nomination. But supporters of Balderas say Haaland is too far left and predict they would beat her in her own backyard of Bernalillo County.

Balderas had $608,000 in his campaign account at last count but as we blogged yesterday the legal beagles say he can't use that money for a federal race but could transfer it to a PAC that could put it to work on his behalf.

Haaland has some money issues that she will have to be overcome if she makes the run. Her year end FEC report shows her with just $20,000 in cash and $43,000 in debt. Secretary of State Maggie Toulouse Oliver reported $46,000 in cash on her December 6 report.

If Haaland and Toulouse Oliver end up in the race a key question is who will the powerful women's group Emily's List side with and support with their bulging cash coffers? Or do they stay out?

Haaland is better positioned than Toulouse Oliver to tap national cash because she is the first Native American woman in the US House and, if elected, would be the first in the Senate.

Balderas could be expected to tap in-state money. His BFF and State Auditor Brian Colon is one of the state's most experienced fund-raisers. Also, Balderas has several statewide runs under this belt giving him a long potential donor list. He would also benefit from national Hispanic groups that want to see NM elect a Hispanic US Senator.

There are plenty of Democrats who are rooting for Lujan to get in, given the bloodbath that could occur if he doesn't. Balderas, Toulouse Oliver and Haaland is a recipe for high level nuclear warfare that might give the R's some hope.

20 NOT 30

We made an error in the first draft of our monster blog on Senator Udall's retirement announcement. We said he had been on Capitol Hill for 30 years when in fact he has been there 20 years. He was first elected to the US House in 1998 not 1988 as we blogged. Udall also served eight years as NM attorney general which puts him near the 30 year mark of public service.

I know what happened. I was thinking about his run for the US House in 1988 which he lost to Steve Schiff and somehow I equated that with his DC start. See that Tom, you won that one after all. In any event, it was quite the long day and night but we should have caught that error. Ten lashes with the wet noodle are definitely in order. . .

Hey, not that hard!

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A DC Senior Alligator says of Rep. Torres Small, 34, a former aide to Udall:

There will be enormous pressure for her to take the southern seat into 2021 redistricting and not leave it to run for Senate. The Dems could make the seat their own with the new lines to be drawn then. If an R were to take it back, that task becomes more difficult. 

And then there is the liberal wing of the party that is upset with Torres Small's middle of the road approach.

Lujan is now Assistant Speaker and one of the most powerful congressional reps in DC. Does he want to give up a possible shot at some day becoming Speaker of the House for a Senate desk?

It's alluring for him because of all the candidates for the Dem nod being mentioned he is the only one with the ability to clear the field. He has new national political power and a strong home base. If Lujan were to make the run the race would be pretty much decided.

Here's his statement regarding a Senate run:

I am humbled by the outpouring of support I received today. In the weeks to come, I will speak with my family, New Mexicans, and supporters about the opportunity to serve our state in the U.S. Senate.

Right about now Balderas is having heart palpitations because if Ben Ray jumps in the pool, Hector drowns. And Haaland stays out.

If Lujan takes a pass the question becomes who he would like to see in the seat. You could easily see him collaborating on the matter with Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer. Remember it was Schumer who in 2008 recruited Udall for the Senate race to replace Republican Pete Domenici. Under that pressure former ABQ Mayor Marty Chavez withdrew his candidacy.

Here's something to watch. New Mexican Dan Sena rose to national prominence as a political consultant under Lujan when he was chairman of the Dem Congressional Campaign Committee. He has now opened his own consulting firm. If Sena signs with Balderas. . . well, you get the picture.

TIM STAYS

ABQ Mayor Tim Keller, 41, has also been mentioned as a possible hopeful, but his office ruled out a run  Monday, saying he is staying  put. It is expected he will seek re-election as Mayor in 2021. He has never had a hankering to serve in DC.

SECOND TIER

There will be a gaggle of others looking at the Dem nomination wondering if lightning might strike. They would include Lt. Governor Howie Morales, ABQ businessman Jeff Apodaca, who ran for the Dem nod for Governor last year; also Dem State Senators Jeff Steinborn, Jacob Candelaria, Joe Cervantes and Pete Campos will give it a look.

Former NM USDA Regional Director Terry Brunner is also pondering. House Speaker Brian Egolf will be tempted. All of them except Morales, Brunner and Apodaca would have to give up their current positions to make the run so keep your bets to yourself.

THE REPUBLICANS

Sanchez and Martinez

While the Dems have a deep potential bench for the Senate game, the R's are having difficulty suiting up. Former Lt. Governor John Sanchez, 56, is their top pick but would he make a run knowing a loss would mean his chances of ever taking the governorship could be over? And then there is the baggage he carries from Gov. Susana Martinez. That's a heavy load indeed.

Martinez would have been a natural for the Senate run but she left office deeply unpopular and amid a scandal hanging over her head involving her state police bodyguard who collected a large settlement from the state. And that's just for starters.

Digging deeper for some viable names we surfaced former House Minority Leader Nate Gentry, former ABQ GOP State Rep. Sarah Maestas Barnes and current Valencia County State Rep. Kelly Fajardo.

None of them are seen as likely candidates because of the financial challenge but each has political acumen that sets them apart from the GOP crowd, analyzed veteran Dem consultant James Hallinan. 

Fear was expressed by some Republicans that current GOP state chairman Steve Pearce, fresh off a landslide loss in the ‘18  race for governor, would run. His 2008 candidacy against Sen. Udall ended with him getting whipped in another landslide.

The rest of the names that GOP insiders floated are relative unknowns. They include ABQ businessmen Doug Turner who ran for the Guv nod in 2010; Mick Rich who suffered a landslide loss last year to Dem US Senator Heinrich and Steve Maestas, an ABQ real estate developer who is married to former NM GOP Chair Deborah Weh.

The national R's are not expected to target the race after the way the state went deep blue last year. They have too many other contests to babysit that will insure their continued grip on the Senate. Local R's will likely be left to their own devices, and that reveals how precious that Dem US Senate nomination will be for the lucky winner.

REACTION ROW

Here's a sample of reaction from across the state to Udall's announcement that he's packing it in:

Marg Elliston, chair of the NM Dem Party: He’s a trailblazer on environmental protection, helps grow vital military and research installations throughout the state, fights to improve rural healthcare access, defends tribal sovereignty, and puts his fellow New Mexicans first.

Steve Pearce, chair of the NM GOP: Given the Democrats progressive trend, they will likely nominate someone who is far too liberal to represent New Mexico. . . I can unequivocally state that our candidate will provide a clear contrast with anyone whom the Democrats recruit to run.

Gov. MLG--Whether serving the people of this state as attorney general, as a congressman, as a senator or simply as a neighbor and friend, Tom Udall has reliably put New Mexicans first. He has fought for our water, for our lands, for our people, and his voice has been a consistent beacon of leadership and moral clarity in turbulent times

Mike Johnson of Santa  Fe on social media: So glad to see this incompetent, elite, fortunate son go. Good riddance. So many Viet Nam vets will be very happy.

Ray Gray on Facebook: Best news all day! Now if we could just get him to take Martin with him! Enjoy that hefty retirement from us taxpayers!

Jon Hendry on Facebook: Udall's been quietly effective without the grandstanding. NM is about to have little seniority on important committees which is tough when we rely on the Feds.

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(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2019