Friday, April 26, 2019Former Congressman And Sec. Of Interior Manuel Lujan, Jr. Dies At 90, MLG Does Some Damage Control From Sheriff Fallout Hit, Plus: Keller And The Spin Machine, And: ABQ Councilor Winter Won't Run Again
We worked in his DC office as his communications officer back in the day. He was a good soul. As a congressman from 1969 through 1988, he came to be known as the king of constituent services. In 1989 he was named Secretary of Interior by President George H. W. Bush and served four years. Governor Lujan Grisham issued the following statement upon his passing: Manuel Lujan, Jr. was the picture of a statesman. In a lifetime of public service, over the course of ten Congressional terms and four years as secretary of the Interior, he fought for his constituents, striving for balance between competing interests, never forgetting that New Mexicans’ collective best interest must come first. Over the years, it was frequently assumed Manuel was my uncle. He wasn’t, but he always treated me like his favorite niece. He was a gentleman; he was generous; he was a thoughtful public servant. I will miss him, and I know New Mexico will long cherish his memory. Gov. Lujan Grisham has ordered all state flags to half-staff in honor of the late congressman.  The online Morning Consult survey of registered voters conducted January 1-March 31, has the Guv's approval rating at 41 percent, her disapproval at 33 and the undecided at 27. Considering she was elected with 57 percent of the vote last November, that is quite anemic. However, as veteran analyst Greg Payne points out, that poll has Senators Udall and Heinrich at only 39 percent approval and that seems artificially low, condsidering that Heinrich was re-elected by a large margin just last November.
We checked with an insider privy to other recent independent polling that is not made public and uses live interviews with voters. They said the Guv's approval number is over 50 percent (and the Senators’ are higher as well).
Still politicians follow the trend and react. That Consult poll could be picking up on the hornet's nest MLG stirred up with conservatives over a package of gun laws approved during the legislative session. 29 of the state's 33 sheriffs--all from the rural counties--opposed the laws and some warned they would not enforce them. That led MLG in late February to Tweet out this emotional blast: I’m not daunted by obstacles, whether it’s NRA propaganda, rogue sheriffs throwing a childish pity party or bad-faith critics. Legislative leaders and I will continue to fight the scourge of gun violence in our communities. That tongue lashing led to "Going Rogue" memes popping up all over the Net and the most intense criticism that MLG had received since getting elected. The conservative base outside of the cities was up in arms. But now that she has had some time to settle into the Fourth Floor the photo posted with this blog happens and this statement: I was very pleased to meet with a group of county sheriffs on the Fourth Floor. We had an incredibly productive dialogue about working together to keep our communities safe. I'm grateful for their participation and honored by their service to this state. We might disagree from time to time, but at the end of the day we are all New Mexicans. We successfully found common ground while discussing disagreements with civility. I look forward to our continued conversations about public safety, gun violence prevention & behavioral health. Why rub your opponents noses in the mud when you have the votes? You don't. And that’s how you go from campaign mode to governing mode. One other note: Do you think the chaos on the border could impact her popularity? Immigration is a tricky issue and this week it had Santa Fe Mayor Webber clarifying the level of assistance immigrants coming to his city will be getting. The new governor needs to keep her ears open to a wide variety of views. GET TOUGHER? ABQ Mayor Tim Keller is getting some unsolicited advice about his statement regarding this week's murder in broad daylight of a mail carrier in the city's Westgate Heights. Let's take a look. First, Keller's statement: The men and women who carry our mail day-in and day-out are public servants in every sense of the word. One mailbox at a time, they bring our community closer together. This tragic shooting has shaken our city. We are grieving with the family of the victim, and with the entire postal service family. While we are working to get answers to the many remaining unanswered questions, we know we must, and will continue to, fight against the gun violence that has taken a terrible toll on our community. Fighting crime will remain our top priority. Albuquerque, please take some time in the next few days to personally make sure your local letter carrier knows how much you appreciate them, and give them your love and support. Now this from ABQ attorney and former APD officer Tom Grover who thinks that misses the mark. I would’ve said something along these lines: To the person who committed this act, my advice is to surrender as soon as possible.All available resources will be employed to find you and bring you to justice. I’ve directed my police department to leave no stone unturned and we will fully assist the FBI and the USPIS in your apprehension. This, and the other horrible acts of violence which have been plaguing our city, will be met with the full commitment of every person in APD, from patrol officer to chief of police. The 17 year old alleged to have killed the mailman has been captured. thanks, tom. You're not running for something, are you? WINTER EXITS  In his retirement announcement the 67 year old Senior Olympian said: Unlike the state legislature, the Albuquerque City Council usually puts politics aside. For the most part we have been a fair and balanced group that operates as a true check and balance of the executive’s power. Well, they sometimes put politics aside. Winter will be more fondly remembered for the first half of his two decade tenure. When Republican Mayor RJ Berry took the helm for eight years in 2009 there was nary a peep of criticism from Winter, even as many concerned citizens pounded the table for Winter to say something about the APD wreckage, the soaring crime rate and an economy sliding fast. But he had come under the influence of then-Gov. Martinez's political machine. There would be no "check and balance" and, well, the rest is history. Before that sad chapter in state and city history, Winter was a moderate Republican voice. Heck, we even tried to get him to run for Congress back in the day. (Remember that with Harry Pavlides, Brad?) Winter brought decency, fairness and a love for his native city to the table. He just happened to end up on the wrong side of history. You're working me to the bone, Gators. Will you let me outta here for a while? This is the home of New Mexico politics. E-mail your news and comments. (jmonahan@ix.netcom.com) Interested in reaching New Mexico's most informed audience? Advertise here.   (c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2019Thursday, April 25, 2019Game On; MTO Makes It Official In Senate Announcement Video As First Polling Numbers Float; Our Exclusive Coverage, Plus: Espinoza Exits; Well-Known Politico Rejects Northern Congress Run; Race Remains Wide Open She unveiled a well-produced video aimed squarely at women who she hopes will back her in sufficient numbers to give her the nomination and ultimately help make her New Mexico's first female Senator.
The two minute video was also notable for the relatively mild language it employed to describe the chaos in Washington. She did not deliver direct punches that could have foreshadowed a negative campaign against Rep. Ben Ray Lujan, her chief rival for the nomination as well as a member of the US House leadership. Here's how she played the DC angle: We all deserve a Washington not driven by malice but instead driven by hope and a vision to make things better. Pretty mild and a Senior Alligator comes with the analysis: That language signaled that she will largely rest her hopes of winning on becoming the first woman senator from the state and that a direct take down of Lujan and his role in DC is probably not in the cards. She wants to win but isn't going into this like a war. She wants to be left standing for something else if this race doesn't work out. If so, that could be MTO's most fateful decision of the campaign. However, making a big jump by pounding DC establishment Dems could help her by further alienating Lujan from the likes of Bernie Sanders and Alexandria Oasio Cortez (AOC) whose progressive views made them national forces and fund-raising giants. Can MTO raise the necessary campaign funds by taking a more quiet, safer route? That's the multi-million dollar question. The question of MTO running into some negative campaigning of her own--from Lujan or his acolytes--was raised by her at the front of the video when she said she had not led a "perfect" life and introduced herself as a single mother. She has been married and divorced twice, and while she has won two races for Secretary of State her background has not been fully vetted for a top ballot position such as US Senate. As she acknowledged, that now changes. SEPARATING SOME
(I want) a Washington that recognizes that women should damn well make what men make for the same work. The use of a mild curse like "damn" is still a rarity in campaign announcements but with Trump redefining political language, she turned it to her advantage to rally her troops. Veteran GOP consultant Bob Cornelius liked what he saw: She hit the liberal hot button positions like equal pay and Medicare for all. By not rushing to get it out she came across more polished and less rushed than Lujan did in his announcement video. He had to put something up fast after Senator Udall announced his retirement in order to keep (Attorney General) Hector Balderas out. THE FIRST NUMBERS Lujan would also have liked to keep MTO out but it was not to be. But he must have been taking some solace in poll numbers floating around from DC Dem consulting firm GBAO Strategies. Take a look: . . . Our poll of 600 likely Democratic primary voters shows Luján leading Toulouse Oliver, 64-25 percent. The poll was conducted April 15-18, using live dialers, reaching voters on cell phones and landlines, and carries a 4.0 percentage point margin of error. . . While both candidates have similarly low unfavorable ratings, Luján’s favorable ratings are 15 points higher overall and with more intensity. Luján’s name identification is 15 points higher, but that does not account for his lead. Luján leads 63-28 percent among voters who can identify both candidates. Luján leads by at least 20 points in each of the state’s three congressional districts, among Hispanics and Anglos, men and women. The actual question posed to determine those results was not available, so there's your proverbial grain of salt. Also, the survey was paid for by BRL's campaign. Having said that, the results are not that far off from how most political pros we consult see the race, namely that it is Lujan's to lose. But MTO did not falter at the starting line. That was job one. Job two is to keep doing it and doing it and hope the other guy doesn't. R REACTION NM GOP Chairman Steve Pearce, still searching for a top tier candidate to seek the Republican Senate nomination, took time out to call on MTO to resign as SOS because, he said, she now has a conflict as a candidate whose job it is to oversee the primary election. ESPINOZA'S EXIT  New Mexico is my forever home. I could’ve gone to work in Washington DC 20 years ago and I chose New Mexico and again at this time, I chose Northern New Mexico. So instead my God-given energy will be focused on the needs of our residents and serving the public, not campaigning for Congress. It was a tough decision and I will never forget the outpouring of support for Congress as long as I live! The decision by Espinoza, a former two-term Santa Fe County Clerk and two-term PRC Commissioner who ends her run at the end of next year, makes a wide open race even more so. But there could still be a Valerie in the running. Santa Fe's Valerie Plame is weighing a run for the northern seat. Wrap-up the political week with us on the Friday blog tomorrow. This is the home of New Mexico politics. E-mail your news and comments. (jmonahan@ix.netcom.com) Interested in reaching New Mexico's most informed audience? Advertise here. (c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2019Wednesday, April 24, 2019Longest-Serving State Senator Now 94 And Mulling Over Re-election Bid, Plus: An Unusual GOP Northern Congress Candidate
Old age isn't what it used to be. Joe Biden is 77 and will announce another presidential bid this week. And as we blogged Tuesday, ABQ Dem State Senator Jerry Ortiz y Pino, who will turn 77 this August, is rarin' to get another re-election campaign going, and 87 year old Mary Kay Papen hasn't yet ruled out another bid for her Dona Ana County senate seat. All of that bring us to. . . Democratic State Senator John Pinto. He turned 94 on December 15 and is the longest serving member of the senate, having taken his seat in 1977. He is still weighing whether he will seek a 12th four year term. In an interview published in mid-March, the Indian Country lawmaker had this to say: I have one more year to go as a state senator. When my term is up, I’m thinking about running again. It depends on my health. The people want me to run. Well, he actually has nearly two years to go as a senator--until the end of 2020, but the June primary is about a year away and winning that is nearly equivalent to winning the general election in the heavy Democratic district. Not that Pinto has much to worry about. He hasn't had an opponent in years. As a living legend--he is one of eight original Navajo Code talkers who are still alive who helped America win WWII--who would dare challenge him? He's also known for bringing home the bacon to his rural district, He says one of his biggest accomplishments was securing funding for a four-lane highway from Gallup to Shiprock – U.S. 491. The bill for that ran to about $400 million. When you build a four-lane highway it costs a million dollars a mile. The state legislature loves me here in New Mexico. I’ve got a lot of friends here. Good stuff there. But age is wearing some on Pinto. He no longer famously sings the Potato Song at the end of each legislative session and his gait has slowed so his colleagues anxiously await his decision. If Pinto's health holds and he wins re-election in November of next year his term would expire at the end of 2024---just days after he would have turned 100 years old. How about that?! How can you not root for the guy? SWITCHING SIDES Here is an unusual candidacy announcement. It's from the first Republican to get into the race for the northern congressional seat being vacated by Dem Rep. Ben Ray Lujan: Brett Kokinadis, founder of New Mexico Democrats for Democracy (NMDFD), changed his party affiliation to Republican, saying, “I see this as an opportunity – an olive branch - to unite New Mexicans. Many politicians talk about working across the aisle; I’m jumping across it to build a bridge for New Mexico’s future." “I was accused of attacking the Democrat Party because I was talking about policy, facts, and vision, or lack thereof, of all candidates, regardless of political affiliation. I didn’t buy into the mantras, the division, and hate. . . I was pushed out of the Democrat Party for talking facts. “As a gay man, I care about a platform of equality and opportunity. . . a clearly executable plan for our state and nation. ABQ businessman Jeff Apodaca, son of former NM Gov Jerry Apodaca, was also active in NMDFD during last year's election in which he sought the Dem Guv nomination, and still is. However, Apodaca says he has no plans to run for elective office and recently told KKOB Radio he will not join the race for US Senate. Meanwhile, ABQ's Giovanni Alexander Haqani has announced he will seek the Dem US Senate nomination. If he breaks through we'll give him initials just like we do BRL and MTO. That would be GAH. And BRL's senate campaign came with that list of women who support his candidacy. It turned out to be 300, larger than the 200 a campaign insider said to expect. This is the home of New Mexico politics. E-mail your news and comments. (jmonahan@ix.netcom.com) Interested in reaching New Mexico's most informed audience? Advertise here. (c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2019
Tuesday, April 23, 2019BRL Moves To Preempt MTO With Women Voters, State Senate Heavy Papen Mulls Leaving And Readers Get On The Population Beat
MTO is expected to formally enter the race as soon as this week which has prompted BRL to launch a preemptive strike. His campaign is expected today to announce its first wave of women supporters--about 300 of them. That will come on the heels of endorsements of BRL from US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and ABQ Dem US Rep. Deb Haaland. Among the women we're told getting on the BRL bandwagon early are: Former Lt. Gov. Diane Denish; PRC Commissioner Linda Lovejoy; former Attorney General Patricia Madrid and popular Santa Fe State Senator Liz Stefanics. Those are longtime Dems BRL has enlisted. MTO supporters would call them "establishment Dems." Her appeal, they say, will be with the new generations of Dem women. The contenders will have plenty of time to roll out their female support. It's still over 13 months until the primary election. ROUNDHOUSE WATCH 87 year old State Senator Mary Kay Papen might be ready to wrap up what would be a 20 year stint in Santa Fe, but a Senate elder statesman says he's ready for another four years. ABQ Dem Senator Jerry Oritz y Pino, who turns 77 in August, says he will run for another four year term in 2020. He was first elected from his downtown district in 2004. He is regarded as the leading liberal at the Roundhouse. Asked why he is ready to go back, he said: "I am having too much fun." Well, glad someone is. . . As for Mary Kay, who will turn 88 before next year's June primary, she's just drawn a spirited challenger for her primary and that could be enough to persuade her the time is right to take her leave. She says: I’m not a spring chicken, and I don’t own the seat.
Papen is one of a handful of Dem senators who sometimes vote with the Republicans to form a majority coalition that often dooms progressive bills. The progressives have said that they will be going after coalition members and Papen made the list. Perry, a single mother of three, is the director of Direct Therapy Services which works with the developmentally disabled. She has lobbied for the cause in Santa Fe. This is her first run for public office. She is a member of Emerge NM which specializes in recruiting women candidates. Meantime, Raymond Concho of Acoma Pueblo, who told us earlier this year that he might mount a primary challenge against another member of the coalition--Dem Senator Clemente Sanchez of Grants--tells us he is still undecided but should make a decision soon. LOSE A SEAT? Reader Cheryl Haaker wonders about a possible political angle to the state's nearly decade-long population stagnation that we blogged of Monday: Joe, thanks for all the figures comparing "now" with the previous Census. And, speaking of the Census, what do your experts and Gators think about the possibility that New Mexico could actually lose a seat in Congress? Now, back to catching up with Game of Thrones and reading the (redacted) Mueller report... Not to worry just yet, Cheryl. Enjoy Game of Thrones in peace because Election Data Services, which monitors such matters, does not have New Mexico on its hit list: The Census Bureau’s 2018 total population estimates shows that now 13 states will be impacted by changes in their congressional delegation if these new numbers were used for apportionment today. The state of Arizona joins the previously indicated states of Colorado, Florida, North Carolina, and Oregon to each gain a single seat while the state of Texas is now shown to gain a second seat with the new data. The states of Rhode Island join the states of Illinois, Michigan, Minnesota, New York, Pennsylvania and West Virginia to lose a seat in Congress using the new data. By the way, in the first draft of the Monday blog we had a typo in reporting the state's population from the Census. The percentage change of 1.8 percent from 2010 until 2018 was correct but the total population should have stated that we went from 2.059 million to 2.095 million. THEY WANT OUT  Joe, Very well done. Nobody else is saying it and it's all so very true and important. I've got daughters in UNM law and med schools, and listening to them and their many friends, they all want out of Albuquerque as soon as they get degrees. You credited the legislature for making progress this past session in changing all this. What are you referring to? I'm unconvinced unless you conclude more spending on primary education will reliably yield changes to the key issues you aptly summarized. Nothing this session to immediately tackle crime, drugs, or advance better job creation. Perhaps minimum wage increases, but that doesn't seem to have arrested the slide in the cities which raised their minimums years ago. But hey, although Bernalillo County grew by only 15 people in the past year, it's now safe from the threats of plastic bags. Maybe Mayor Keller can give those 15 newcomers a year's supply of paper bags for making the move here? If not that, how about some bullet proof vests? This is the home of New Mexico politics. E-mail your news and comments. (jmonahan@ix.netcom.com) Interested in reaching New Mexico's most informed audience? Advertise here. (c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2019
Monday, April 22, 2019New Mexico Poised For Slowest Decade of Population Growth In State History; Impacts Weighed And Analyzed The latest stats from the US Census Bureau show that from April 1, 2010 to July 1, 2018 the Land of Enchantment has grown its population a mere 1.8 percent, from 2.059 million to 2.095 million. According to Wikipedia, only the decade of the 60's has seen slower state population growth. Back then it was still much higher at 6.9 percent and that was seen as a crash. No one wants to Californicate New Mexico. Part of its charm is its uncrowded conditions but the state is not growing for the many menacing reasons your blog has outlined during the course of this decade--the lack of good-paying jobs; a slowing of federal funding for the national security and defense apparatus; an under educated work force; educated students fleeing the state for greener pastures and a horrific crime wave featuring record murder rates and rampant child abuse caused in large part by a drug epidemic spurred by growing poverty. While the state grapples with a social conditions crisis that was mostly its own making but also attributable to global economic changes, one state official tried to spin the historic stagnation: "I would say the state of New Mexico growing at a slower rate than other Western states is not necessarily a bad thing,” said Ryan Eustice, an economist at the New Mexico Economic Development Department. “This allows cities, counties and states to better plan for infrastructure, housing, job creation and education.” Well, this trend is nearly a decade old so we've already had plenty of time to "better plan." BIG BERNCO Big BernCo County did not live up to that nickname in the latest Census numbers. Only 15 more people--that's right 15--lived in the county in July of '18 than July of '17. Maybe they should all be honored at one of those Chamber of Commerce dinners. The state's fastest growing county in the Census year measured was Sandoval which is attracting neighboring ABQ residents to Rio Rancho where housing prices are more friendly. LOSS EQUALS CHANGE  The state went from a swing state in federal elections in 2008 to nearly a "Safe Blue" state with Dems in 2018 taking all five slots in the NM congressional delegation. The economy of the state this decade has been downsized as seen in the ABQ metro where payday loan stores have sprouted like dandelions after a good rain and where the low-paying service sector is becoming more economically dominant. Some smaller impacts of the Great Stagnation are interesting to note. The restaurant scene has changed dramatically with white table cloth places nearly extinct (except in tourist heavy Santa Fe) and an explosion in pizza and hamburger joints has occurred and dot nearly every street corner in ABQ and elsewhere. Upscale men's and women's clothing stores have mostly gone the way of the Dodo bird. Sure, folks dress up less than in the past but it is also a sure fire sign of the decimation of the well-paid professional classes here. On the upside of the stagnation, traffic remains tame compared to most other western cities; the ABQ airport is almost never crowded; reservations are easy to get at restaurants that take them; visiting the great outdoors, including the national parks, is still a way to escape the masses, not join them and with the rise of Amazon the lack of retail growth and availability of products in a small city or state is no big deal. Anything can be shipped anywhere. But the rub is that so much of the population that has stuck around is disenfranchised economically and educationally. The powers-that-be started to tackle that in the recent legislative session, but it will take years for any significant strides to register. Meantime, the state has grown more polarized, with the small wealthy population occupying shrinking patches of gated communities and utilizing private schools to avoid the hazards of public schools. New Mexicans don't mix as much as they once did. After the Great Recession started to take hold here we often wrote that "you were going to see things that you never thought could happen." Together we have and now we have seen another--a once booming Sunbelt state experiencing an historic decade of going nowhere fast. With apologies to the state's official slogan, "It goes, but it does not grow." This is the home of New Mexico politics. E-mail your news and comments. (jmonahan@ix.netcom.com) Interested in reaching New Mexico's most informed audience? Advertise here. (c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2019
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