VP Pence and Chase

Given the divisions in the New Mexican Republican Party it was more than most expected. But Vice-President Mike Pence stepped into that breach during a Wednesday visit to Artesia, gladhanding with Claire Chase, who is expected to step into the race for the southern GOP congressional nomination, and giving worry warts to the campaign of GOP hopeful Yvette Herrell.

The VP officially was on a trip to promote a Trump free trade agreement but Chase, whose oil-rich family hosted the event at their Elite Well Services, was prominently seated between US cabinet secretaries Wilbur Ross of Commerce and David Bernhardt of Interior. And after she introduced Pence, the nation's #2 introduced Chase to the audience in a way that had insiders arguing whether he was taking sides in the coming primary battle:

I want to say 'thank you' to Clair Chase. . . She's the chairman of the New Mexico Oil and gas Association. She's an advocate for a growing New Mexico economy. . .Join me in thanking Claire Chase for her leadership, past present and future!"

The use of the word "future" is what got the eyebrows raised. Then there's that campaign-style picture of Pence and Chase (a joint wave not a handshake) posted on your blog. Only an Artesia roadrunner suffering from heat exhaustion wouldn't be curious whether this was a dumping of Herrell.

Or was it the innocuous explanation that he was simply playing nice with his wealthy hostess?

Herrell, whose campaign says she was in California for a fundraiser and did not attend, posted an old picture of her with Pence, a feeble effort to derail the tantalizing spin that Claire was Mike's new New Mexico gal pal.

Herrell supporters again raised the specter that former Gov. Martinez and her controversial political consultant Jay McCleskey were going to be players in Chase's campaign. That's what helped Yvette clobber former Hobbs Mayor Monty Newman in the '18 GOP primary.

Chase, 35, is expected to formally announce as soon as this weekend and bring with her the bank books of the Chase family which she married into. If her first check is north of $250,000 she will have instantly closed the fund-raising gap with Herrell as well as Las Cruces businessman Christ Mathys who is also running.

Lots of moving parts to this one. Stay tuned.

SPARING MARTINEZ

A blow to those hoping for an effective primary challenge against Rio Arriba area Dem State Senator Richard Martinez who was busted for DWI earlier this year. Freshman Dem State Rep. Susan Herrera is going to stay put in the House, saying that ousting an incumbent Senator is an uphill task. Maybe she should have left it at that because then you get this:

. . . She believes Martinez, despite his legal troubles, has done a better job representing constituents than did Rodella, who served for 26 years in the House before being ousted last year.

What does Martinez's performance versus that of Rio Arriba's Rodella have anything to do with anything? Well, nothing. It does tell you while the public is outraged over the arrest of Martinez and his refusal to take a breath test, the Dem political establishment is reticent to force him out.

That's just like the R's behaved when then-State Rep. Monica Youngblood got busted last year for DWI which, like the Martinez incident, produced a viral arrest video. When it comes to protecting their own the progressives and the R's are one and the same

Ane Romero

A first draft of this report omitted Councilor Diane Gibson

Women will control five of the nine ABQ City Council seats following the November 5 election, a majority apparently for the first time.

Four women are competing for the NE Heights seat long held by Republican Brad Winter who is retiring. The female winner will join Councilors Klarissa Pena, Cynthia Borrego and Diane Gibson. Councilor Trudy Jones is seeking re-election but her lone foe is a woman. That means five female councilors up from the current four.

Now if Gina Naomi Dennis were to pull off a major upset and beat District Six City Councilor Pat Davis that would mean six women councilors.

Let's loop back to that District Four seat and check in with one of our observers there:

Brook Bassan

Joe,  I find the race fascinating because it's four women running in an affluent area that leans right, with only one, Brook Bassan, a declared Republican. Brook however does not bring a typical resume. Will Republicans vote for her, or switch to one of the Dem candidates, a couple of whom--Ane Romero and Athena Ann Christodoulou--bring more conventional qualifications. Hailey Roy is the other Dem candidate.

District 4 is a very large area geographically, and a field campaign to fully cover it is daunting. Three of the four candidates secured public financing but even with that it's not much relative to the task of reaching and motivating the voters who don't turn out in big numbers for any off-year municipal election. 

If Republican Bassan does not win, the Council Dems will grow from six to seven and we believe that would be a record. The four way race is likely headed to a December 10 run-off since it takes 50 percent to win at the first election.

TOO MANY MOVIES?

Reader David Williams in Clovis is on the econ beat looking at the state's big bet to diversify the state economy by awarding large tax incentives to the film and TV industry:

I have never been able to understand why New Mexico pays so much money to the movie industry. There is no way that industry puts that kind of money into our economy. This op-ed was in the Wall Street Journal on July 19. It should open a lot of eyes in this state. We have roads all over New Mexico that are in need of repair. All of that money that is being put into the pockets of the movie guys, could sure go a long way toward road and bridge repairs.

The op-ed written by Atlanta CPA Jay Starkman argues:

Studies by state economic-development authorities and film-industry lobbyists routinely inflate investment and employment returns. Only 4,000 Floridians, for instance, work in film and television production. Yet in 2015 the Florida Office of Film and Entertainment claimed that film incentives and sales-tax credits had created 675,000 jobs in the state over 10 years. The best jobs on a film or TV production invariably go to nonresidents flown in from New York or California. Locals usually get spotty, part-time and relatively low-paying work as hairdressers, security guards, carpenters, drivers and caterers.

SUGGESTION BOX

The state may want to catch up on how it chronicles employment from the SE Permian Basin oil boom. Currently, economists at NM Workforce Solutions place those jobs into the broad category of "mining and  construction." But with the boom becoming a much larger part of the economy, that does not tell the tale. The legislature and other policy makers could use a specific employment measure for "energy" in the public reports. There seems to be plenty of well-paid eggheads at the Department that should be able to get the job done.

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(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2019

The comings and going continue in the crowded race for the Democratic nomination for the northern congressional seat. But the end of the shuffling is in sight because of the time needed to raise the hundreds of thousands to run a credible race.

Our Alligators were spot on when they said that they expected John Blair to get in the race when he announced last month he was resigning as NM deputy secretary of state. Blair did just that this week, announcing what the bean counters say is the ninth candidacy for the Dem nod.

Blair, 45, has long experience in the federal government, including a stint with Sen. Martin Heinrich. He bills his campaign as a "progressive" bid.

Blair has a way to go to break into the top-tier in the race. A good dose of fund-raising will be essential.

So where does the race stand for the nomination which is tantamount to winning the seat in the heavy Dem district? Well, our top-tier is the same but we are now ready to put them in order of strength.

--In first place is attorney Teresa Leger Fernandez. The endorsement of Emily's List can't be underestimated. Also, she is the strongest of the two Hispanic females seeking the nomination. That sits quite well with the DC Dems. The money should be there for her. She will still need grassroots muscle to perform well at the pre-primary convention next March.

--In second is Santa Fe County District Attorney Marco Serna. He got a break when consultant Robert Apodaca dropped out, making for one less Hispanic male rival for the nomination. State Rep. Joseph Sanchez still lurks but Serna's fund-raising is solid and will keep him in good stead for the next chapter in the contest.

--In third is Valerie Plame She narrowly led in the first batch of fund-raising reports but Blair's entry into the race will chip away at her Santa Fe base. And the former CIA spy must overcome "carpetbagging" charges and expand her appeal. Still, third place is nothing to sneeze at in a nine way contest. Plame's national name ID remains a big fund-raising plus.

SENATE CLASH

Rep. Ben Ray Lujan is vacating the northern congressional seat to run for the Dem nomination for US Senate, and he hasn't been shy about playing copycat to his rival, Secretary of State Maggie Toulouse Oliver. When Lujan came out in favor of starting impeaching proceedings against President Trump this week MTO could not resist calling him out:

“First it was the Green New Deal, then it was Medicare for All and not taking any more corporate money,” Toulouse Oliver said. “Today it’s impeachment. I’m glad to see the congressman adopting progressive values, but New Mexico deserves a U.S. Senator who will lead on the issues that truly matter.”

MTO first supported impeachment in May.

This is her first major foray into negative campaigning against Lujan who is the established front-runner in fund-raising and conventional opinion. Expect MTO to keep needling the six term congressman as she looks for something--anything--to shake this race up.

CITY RUN-OFF DATE

It's better than December 17th but the date set for the ABQ run-off election will still run up against the holidays. Political operatives report that last night the ABQ City Council set the 10th as the date for the run-off election for council seats in which no candidate gets 50 percent in the November 5th regular election.

It appears likely there will be run-offs for the seats in council districts two and four where multiple candidates are running. There are only two candidates each in the races for districts six and eight. A new state law pushed the city election from its traditional early October date into November thus the December run-off.

Claire Chase

The rumors are about to become reality. The campaign for the GOP southern congressional nomination is poised to be a Battle Royal. Lobbyist Leland Gould, husband of ABQ GOP state Sen. Candace Gould, lets the cat out of the bag in an email to "friends":

Candace and I are having Claire and Chance Chase from Artesia at our home for drink, food and conversation on Thursday, August 29. It will be announced next week (this week) Claire is running for Steve Pearce's old congressional seat CD2 now held by Congresswoman Xochitl Torres Small. 

With Chase's entry imminent supporters of former GOP State Rep. Yvette Herrell, who has been running for months, rushed to their battle stations. NM GOP House leader James Townsend led the charge, writing to supporters:

It's time we dispel the rumors and unite this party to win in 2020. There are those who wish to judge Yvette's last campaign and create conflict. Their goal is to divide our Republican party. . . I am asking for your trust and support for Yvette Herrell to be the Republican nominee in 2020. . . Her new team is ready for the fight in 2020. They have made substantial changes to the operation . . . .Yvette is the Pro-God, Pro-Life, Pro-Family, and Pro-Business leader with New Mexico values we can trust.

This will be classic battle between the Republican wing that supports former Governor Susana Martinez and those that disdain her for the treatment she dished out to fellow R's. Chase, chairman of the board of the NM Oil and Gas Association, is in the Martinez camp. Herrell, 55, is distinctly not.

Dropping into the middle of this battlefield Wednesday will be none other than VP Mike Pence who will hold an event in Artesia touting an international trade deal. That event will be held at Elite Well Services which just so happens to be owned by the wealthy Chase oil family into which Claire (Manatt) Chase married. Is that a signal that the White House is ready to make room for Claire in her skirmish with Yvette? Who knows? But the timing is intriguing. Remember, Pence campaigned in Roswell for Herrell in 2018.