Thursday, August 18, 2022Astonishing Surplus Numbers Have Even Penny Pinchers' Eyes Popping; Revenue Projected To Swell To "Historic" Levels; A "Once In A Century" Event, Can Guv And Legislature Live Up To The Promise?
Just look at that ear-to-ear smile of Rep. Patty Lundstrom, chair of the House Appropriations Committee, as she basks in the news. And that grey-haired eminence David Abbey, director of the famously frugal Legislative Finance Committee, seems to be at least trying to form a grin. When the Santa Fe budget hawks get a case of the giggles you know you're in uncharted waters. And how could they not? The jaw dropping LFC forecast says the oil boom and higher gross receipts taxes mean that for the first time state revenues in a budget year will top $10 billion--actually challenging the $11 billion mark in fiscal year '24 that begins next July. By comparison the current budget is $8.5 billion. That leaves at least $2.5 billion in new money for the legislature to divvy up at its 60 day session starting in January. But that's only the half of it. $2.6 billion will be reserved for the Early Childhood Trust Fund because of the soaring revenues. That's what oil above $100 bucks a barrel will do when combined with record production levels in the SE Permian Basin. Senate Finance Committee Chairman George Munoz called the enormous cash windfall "a once in a century" event. By George, we think he has something there. State Sen. Michael Padilla rightfully labeled the revenue records "historic" but that seemed like an understatement given the numbers being thrown around. WHAT NOW? So what now? Can the Governor and 112 legislators effectively deploy the immense treasure? They already have a start on it because of last year's record revenues from the oil fields, says ABQ Dem state Sen. Jerry Ortiz y Pino, one of the state's leading liberals. He told us: Joe, we have already set up some endowment streams for the new money and I expect there will be more. The endowments will throw off money each year for particular programs such as funding tuition for professionals we badly need. That way when the oil money subsides, the endowed programs will continue into the future. The senator, 79, now serving his fifth and final term, cited as an example a new law sponsored by Sen. Nancy Rodriguez that dedicates a percentage of the annual severance tax bonding capacity to the construction of affordable housing. That's expected to generate $25 million a year but would go higher if leveraged with federal and other monies. Budget watchers we interviewed said the state's problem is no longer money but finding adequate staffing for the many programs that are on the books and poised to make a difference in the years ahead--if fully operational. Dem consultant Sisto Abeyta, who has been a student of the legislature for over 20 years, noted that behavioral health personnel are lacking in a state with severe mental health problems and the new money is an opportunity to recruit out of state staff with housing and other incentives. The moderate Dem also urged MLG to "let her cabinet secretaries off the leash" and present 'pie in the sky' budgets to the legislature: This is the time to lay it all on the table. What are the best achievements that each department believes it could achieve with ideal funding? That doesn't mean they get it but it could unearth new ideas and approaches we sorely need with this kind of surplus. Rebates, as was done this year for the middle and lower income classes, are sure to make a comeback next year. Checks of at least $1,000 or more for households making less than $200,000 would be a low starting point. Budget mavens say funding for Medicaid, the unemployment insurance fund, roads and bridges are absolute no-brainers for the next five years. They point out the state will also receive $3.7 billion in federal infrastructure funds over the next several years. THE VIEW FROM HERE  Oversight of this green gold rush is also a worry for both liberals and conservatives, although the LFC does good work in that regard. Certainly, Fred Nathan of Think NM and others are spot on in calling for the legislature to delegate power over capital outlay projects to a special legislative committee or even an outside commission and finally put an end to the inefficiency in completing the projects. That committee or commssion could also advise on the use of the mammoth inflow of federal infrastructure funds. Santa Fe has been too quiet for our tastes. The stakes are way too high now not to straighten out the capital outlay chaos, as Senator Pete Campos has begged for year after year. Given the size of this golden goose, needed tax reform for the business community is ripe for discussion. A bipartisan plan should have easier going now. That plan also needs to emphasize renewing the interest out of state businesses once had in coming here but now treat us as fly over country. The foot-dragging and sometimes bureaucratic incoherence in addressing the landmark Yazzie/Martinez court ruling directing the state to provide proper education to at-risk students, should be quickly put to rest. The state can now appropriate without fear as much as it takes to get results this decade. However, no amount of money will resolve the struggles between the state and the parties to the lawsuit. That demands executive leadership. It's been a while since the state's slogan "it grows as it goes" has had much meaning to many citizens. But with the financial skies so sunny today there are reasons to hope--or to at least imitate that beaming smile of Rep. Lundstorm. THE BOTTOM LINES We get this update from Angie Poss on the management of the campaign to pass the constitutional amendment to fund early childhood education that we blogged about Wednesday: Rachael Maestas and I serve as the communications consultants for Vote Yes for Kids - the campaign supporting Constitutional Amendment #1. You wrote that Matthew Henderson is the campaign manager, when it is actually Eli Cuna of Semilla Strategies who is running the campaign. This is the home of New Mexico Politics. E-mail your news and comments. (newsguy@yahoo.com) Interested in reaching New Mexico's most informed audience? Advertise here.   (c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2022 Wednesday, August 17, 2022Bear Market No Match For New Mexico's Oil Gusher; Giant Permanent Fund Holds Up As Markets Tank; Impact On Education Amendment On Nov. Ballot Weighed For the year ended June 30 the Fund finished with a balance of $24.4 billion, down a mere 2 percent, compared to deep double digit losses in the major stock averages. Sky high royalty and tax collections from the oil boom softened the bear's impact and will continue to do so as the Permian Basin is now one the most preferred drilling sites in the world. At the end of 2019 the Fund, established before statehood, had a balance of $19.7 billion and is now up 24 percent since then. The Fund's performance is important to the state budget, with interest from all those billions going into the General Fund each year. The latest performance numbers also have major political impact. On the November 8 ballot voters will decide a constitutional amendment that would increase the amount taken annually from the Fund from 5 percent to 6.5 percent and purpose it for early childhood programs and public school education. If the amendment is approved the state estimates early childhood programs would get over $126 million, public schools $85 million and other Fund beneficiaries $34 million. Those totals would grow each year, if the Fund continues to increase. The hope is that the new investment will make a dent in the state's bottom of the barrel education standing and aid in reversing generations of family dysfunction that have contributed to those low rankings. The stability of the Fund in the face of Wall Street's downturn and a planned multi-million dollar media blitz in support of the amendment puts it on a strong footing for passage. That and polling that shows the public overwhelmingly in favor of the proposal. While GOP primary Guv contender Rebecca Dow favors the amendment, GOP nominee Ronchetti does not. MLG has been a longtime supporter. Opponents, who claim the Fund could have smaller outlays in the future if more is taken today, have no formal organization to oppose the amendment while the amendment supporters have a coalition of activist groups running a campaign in its favor. The CHI St. Joseph's Children and Kellogg Foundation are two of the major financial contributors to that campaign that expects to launch its media blitz in September. The presence of the amendment could also benefit MLG and other Dem candidates by encouraging more Democratic and independent women to go to the polls. The amendment is expected to finance home visits for newborns, child care, pre-K and more. STILL LAST BUT. . .
Joe, (The rankings) are based on older data. . .The state has raised wages, created a new child tax credit, doubled a tax credit that goes overwhelmingly to low-income workers with kids, temporarily expanded child care assistance and significantly increased classroom funding. . .It is important to point out that the sea change we have seen in recent years is not yet reflected in the data and we expect it will improve well-being in the state. The most impactful step voters can directly take to improve child well-being is to vote to approve Constitutional Amendment #1 on the November ballot/ That's a key step in ensuring families can afford child care, that new parents get connected to home visiting services and that public school classrooms have the resources they need. NM has a long way to go to improve child well-being in the state, but recent policy progress means we're headed in the right direction, with the Permanent School Fund constitutional amendment the next boost we need to give our kids the best possible opportunities. THE BOTTOM LINES President Biden Tuesday signed what is being called landmark legislation. Dem US Reps. Melanie Stansbury and Teresa Leger Fernandez earlier conducted a news conference on the impact of the Inflation Reduction Act. Both emphasized climate change provisions in the legislation, pointing to the drought and wildfires that the state has endured. That full news conference is here. E-mail your news and comments. (newsguy@yahoo.com) Interested in reaching New Mexico's most informed audience? Advertise here. (c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2022 Tuesday, August 16, 2022The Year Was 1981
We pause from today's political to and fro to bring you this blast from the past. . . ABQ oldtimers will recall the mayoral election of 1981when Mayor David Rusk was ousted from office largely because he refused to clean up a weed invasion as a result of summer monsoons. That came to mind when reader Philip Romero wrote to us: Joe, We have a weed problem in Albuquerque and it’s not only the kind they smoke! It’s the kind that encroaches sidewalks, walking and bike paths, also our beautiful medians and streets. Why is the mayor and council not seeing this? Yet they wanna build more tourist walkways and rebuild old buildings, which I’m not against but they do need to maintain the neglected streets and walkways, namely on Unser, Ladera, Coors and other streets in the area. Or as the clever headline in the newspaper recently said of the ABQ weed explosion: Too many weeds, not enough whackers. Rusk was ABQ's first progressive Democratic mayor serving from 1977-'81 after running unsuccessfully for the job in 1974. There was a crime problem but nothing like today. Property crime was the biggest concern while violence was mostly confined to certain neighborhoods so the weed mishap was major news. Apart from the city's arrogance in dragging its feet responding to voter outrage over the weed problem, Rusk was a pretty good Mayor. He worked to advance public transit (he rode the bus to the Mayor's office regularly), increased open space acreage and did his best to inject new life into downtown by renovating the historic Kimo Theatre and holding "Downtown Saturday Night" festivals. Hard to imagine today but outdoor dining was not allowed in the city back in the 70's. Rusk fixed that. Democrat Rusk lost his '81 re-election bid to Republican Harry Kinney who had been ousted by Rusk in 1977. Rusk, the son of former Secretary of State Dean Rusk is now 81 and living in DC. He became a noted urban policy consultant after his mayoral term. Rusk says he has suffered total hearing loss but received a cochlear implant. He was what today they would call "a political elite." He was urbane and loved ABQ and all cities. His downfall as a politician was his struggle relating to ordinary people. David Rusk left a positive mark on ABQ and even conservatives of yesteryear still around today may pine for the city that he led--smaller, friendlier and flush with enthusiasm for its future. The year was 1981--the year they wouldn't cut the weeds. I was there and that's how I remember it. Reporting from Albuquerque, I'm Joe Monahan. This is the home of New Mexico Politics. E-mail your news and comments. (newsguy@yahoo.com) Interested in reaching New Mexico's most informed audience? Advertise here. (c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2022 Monday, August 15, 2022Dateline Carlsbad With DeSantis: Florida Guv Dishes Out Red Meat But Mum On Abortion; Ronchetti Takes Different Tack; Avoids Culture Wars, Plus: Not All Media Welcome At Sunday Event; Reporter Ejected
Notably, Ronchetti himself shied away from DeSantis' unabashed conservatism/Trumpism delivered to the Sunday afternoon crowd. Instead, he again tried to position himself as a middle of the road Republican who is mainly concerned about fighting crime. But that was like trying to run away from a stampede of raging bulls. DeSantis, often mentioned as a future presidential contender, did not come here to walk a tightrope. Instead he jumped with joy on a trampoline, using the most divisive issues possible to accentuate his differences with the Democratic left. For all the talk about how inflation and the economy will be a big help to the GOP come November, DeSantis mostly stuck with red meat messaging including harsh criticism of MLG for her handling of Covid, the "woke" institutions of America, transgender medical treatment of children, critical race theory and his battle with Disney over gay rights. Following his Carlsbad stop, which was followed by an Arizona rally, DeSantis tweeted: New Mexico's future is promising with
@MarkRonchettiNM
at the helm.
Mark will fight Biden's reckless open border policy, stand for law-and-order, and protect the rights of NM against lockdowns, mandates, & restrictions. But what about abortion? Well, DeSantis said nothing about that even though it has surfaced as a leading campaign issue and Ronchetti's handling of it could be a turning point of the '22 campaign. Dem Party Chair Jessica Velasquez, ignoring the rural conservatives, employed the Floridian's visit to gin up Dem support in ABQ and Santa Fe: (DeSantis') signature accomplishment as governor being the homophobic “Don’t Say Gay” bill and his unrelenting attacks on women and their doctors. I tell you, it’s a new low for Ronchetti and Herrell to jump at the opportunity to rub shoulders with DeSantis. DeSantis recently signed into law a ban on abortion after 15 weeks and that makes no exceptions for incest or the life of the mother. For her part, MLG rolled out her new favorite "E" word about Ronchetti. His fave is "elites." Hers is extremist as seen in this tweet in reaction to the DeSantis visit: While @MarkRonchettiNM is here sympathizing with extremist white nationalist groups, @RonDeSantisFL refuses to refer to January 6th as an insurrection. Mark, I will NEVER allow you to import this toxicity from Florida into our state. EXPERT ANALYSIS  That DeSantis did not mention New Mexico being the "late-term abortion capital" was significant. It tells us that Ronchetti is losing on that issue and they need it to go away. Bringing DeSantis here seemed to play into the numbers narrative of the Democrats. The numbers being the big advantage they hold in the cities. His appearance shored up GOP support in the SE counties that Ronchetti is already going to win but it may have hurt more than the R's would like to admit in those big Dem counties. One of our Senior Alligators added: If you are going to campaign as an "outsider," don't bring in insiders like DeSantis or play inside abortion baseball with Rev. Steve Smotherman. In fact, don't bring in anyone at all and play your own game. FOLLOW THE MONEY Ronchetti had a fund-raiser in Carlsbad Friday night, hosted by Brian Bailey, a franchisee of dozens of Domino's Pizza outlets. As for the DeSantis Carlsbad visit Sunday, we're told by one of the Alligators that there was fund-raising conducted but no details were yet available. PRESS PUNISHMENT  The editor of the on-line news source also reported that Ronchetti's campaign manager said they were denied access because of a critical article they had recently penned about the candidate. The campaign had no comment. Source NM can be fairly categorized as appealing mainly to a liberal audience--but not necessarily with a journalistic bias--but by story selection i.e. heavy on the environment and the like. But their reporting is fact-based and they are an affiliate of the national journalism nonprofit group States Newsroom. Ronchetti spent decades in TV newsrooms as a meteorologist being exposed to a variety of news and opinion. For him to exclude media of any sort from one of his own events seems a rebuke of that career. More important, it is a red flag on how he would report to the people via the position of Governor. Come on, Mark. At least call your old pal news anchor Dick Knpifing and ask for his opinion before you stiff-arm the profession that made your political career possible. E-mail your news and comments. (newsguy@yahoo.com) Interested in reaching New Mexico's most informed audience? Advertise here. (c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2022 |
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