Thursday, October 13, 2022Last Gasp: Amid Polling Decline Ronchetti Unloads On New Mexico Governor At Final TV Debate; Calls Her A "Hypocrite" In Character Attack Over Crotchgate; He's "Desperate" She Retorts; Analysts Weigh In On Impact With the New Mexico gubernatorial race escaping his grasp Republican Mark Ronchetti unloaded on the Democratic Governor at last night's final TV debate in a hyperactive attack that saw him denounce her as a "hypocrite" and accuse her of offering nothing but a "blizzard of excuses." For her part, MLG dismissed his "baseless and desperate attacks" as coming from an unqualified and politically inexperienced former TV weatherman. (Full debate here.) Ronchetti, set back on his heels by two polls, one showing him 16 behind and another by 8, swerved to the sensational in the KOAT face-off and recited chapter and verse the saga known in political circles as "Crotchgate." He did that when it was his turn to ask MLG a question. He cited the charge that as a Guv candidate MLG had sexually harassed James Hallinan,"an openly gay" staffer, by throwing water on his crotch, grabbing it and wondering aloud "if he had anything down there." He then reminded viewers that her campaign settled the lawsuit Hallinan had brought for $150,000. The attack was expected. Ronchetti had already put up a TV spot aimed at reviving the four year old case that had previously been reported but now hoped it would be the bombshell that would prove to be MLG's reversal of fortune. But the Governor did not litigate the matter. Instead she repeatedly labeled the attack "desperate" and "baseless" and the result of Ronchetti's attempt to steer voters away from his lack of qualifications and experience to lead the state. Feeling his sting, she retorted: "You're a TV weatherman with no experience." The character attack was the last arrow in Ronchetti's quiver. He lost the US Senate race in 2020 by six points but is now fighting to get this race even that close and then overtake MLG--all as early voting gets underway and with voter sentiment cementing. While a headline grabber, the desired effect of the Crotchgate hit may prove elusive, says one of our analysts: People are desensitized to these things since Access Hollywood and the Trump "grabbing pussy" incident. Moreover, it's a national trend now to get nasty in these debates, not just in the TV ads. Look at the Ohio Senate debate recently that featured charges off "ass kissing." Our politics have devolved and voters don't give much thought to these things unless there is clear evidence of wrongdoing. Some Republicans expressed concern that the late attack on Lujan Grisham might have backlash. In their appraisal of the debate, the state GOP did not mention Ronchetti's tongue lashing over Crotchgate (the national R's did) but instead praised his overall performance: Mark Ronchetti proved he is the superior candidate and the clear choice to lead our state. Tonight's debate demonstrated he understands New Mexico's serious problems--such as crime, education, border security and homelessness--and knows how to solve them. He provided specifics in his answers, showed leadership and offered real solutions, while the Governor continued to stray from the hard issues facing her. DEM REACT  Democratic consultants we spoke with were pleased with the debate outcome, saying there was no knockout punch and that with a significant polling lead the Governor is now poised for a second term. One of them came with this: Ronchetti looked like a rookie District Attorney trying to indict the governor. He threw everything including the kitchen sink at her. Ronchetti did not seem to understand the complexities of having an election on an abortion ban as a stomp on women. The Governor evaded questions from the panel and Ronchetti on the Hallinan scandal aka Crotchgate. That seemed like a safe play for an issue that has not been the magic Ronchetti hoped it to be. Gotta give the win to MLG for fighting back on crime. MLG did do better with the first question of crime as it was in the first debate. This time she worked to make partisan hay out of the crime explosion, pinning some blame on former GOP Gov. Susana Martinez who she called Ronchetti's "mentor" and who she scored for "destroying" the behavioral health system which in turn she argued led to more drug abuse and crime. When it came time for MLG to ask Ronchetti a question she may have gotten too clever: "What is misoprostol?" she queried, citing the medication sometimes used to induce abortion. He lashed out in response: This is what 25 years in government gets you. . . a Governor who wants to play Jeopardy. But another aspect of abortion, an issue that MLG repeatedly went back to, did not play so well for him. He was asked about his conversation with ABQ Pastor Steve Smothermon in which the pastor said Ronchetti told him he was committed to doing away with all abortions. "You'll have to ask the pastor about that," he quipped, a reminder of the corner the GOP contender is in on a top issue for so many voters. Ronchetti renewed his call for the NM National Guard to be placed at the border to interrupt the flow of fentanyl. MLG countered that the guard has no power to enforce immigration law and such a posting would leave the state without them if they were needed to assist with fires or floods. Ronchetti gave MLG a nickname as "the catch and release Governor" and pledged to stop all legislative work until he won a pretrial detention bill that would keep more alleged criminals behind bars until their trial. In a rare moment of agreement MLG said she concurred with such a bill--which has already failed in Santa Fe--by saying she would try again. Both candidates sent a message to the Roundhouse that will quiet any talk of reinstating the food tax to bring a more stable revenue stream to the state. Both contenders were emphatic that they would not sign such legislation. THE OPTICS  Ronchetti is a TV pro but he was too caffeinated for the small screen last night with his boisterous, machine gun style rhetoric that sometimes was exhausting to listen to. MLG appeared annoyed and a bit impatient at this debate, unlike the first when she was in a closer race and more poised. Ronchetti did his homework and knows the issues. The same goes without saying for MLG. The debate was handled well with just the right amount of rebuttal and pertinent questions. The time slot was wanting, however. 6:30 p.m. is only "almost prime time." Ronchetti, for the most part, refrained from the sometimes weird facial gestures he used to react to MLG's answers in the first TV debate and which led to critical memes on social media. Hey, you wanted optics? You got 'em. FINAL TAKE Attorney and former state legislator Greg Payne, who is helping us analyze this year's campaign, had this take on the final debate: It was a draw. There was no knockout and MLG is on course to win re-election. Polling says 60 percent of the voters believe she will win and the debate did not shake that belief. Crotchgate is a bizarre story and not one that is sticky at this point. The MeToo movement is about others coming forward. There is no one coming forward to verify Hallinan's claims. Ronchetti did his best on her trick question on the abortion drug. That was the best her campaign could come with? But her repeated pivots back to the issue did not let him escape the trap door issue of this cycle. Quite the week and more to come. This is the home of New Mexico Politics. E-mail your news and comments. (newsguy@yahoo.com) Interested in reaching New Mexico's most informed audience? Advertise here.   (c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2022 Wednesday, October 12, 2022Latest Money Reports: Ronchetti Reports Plenty Of Cash But The Message Remains The Problem, Plus: SOS Race Features Election Denier Vs Incumbent, And: Cash Count In Key State House Races For Final Stretch If the latest polls are to be believed, Ronchetti, down by 9 points in the polling averages, is losing the gubernatorial race handily and in large part because of his bungled messaging over abortion which this year ranks as a top voter concern. At that meeting to be remembered, Smothermon said Ronchetti told him he wanted to end all abortion but couldn't say so publicly or he would lose the election. Ronchetti denied it but the bell was rung. The GOP contender is well-positioned to buy all the ad time he can find in the final weeks of the campaign. He reports having $2.49 million in cash on hand as of October 3. That beats MLG's cash on hand of $1.68 million and he also beat her in fund-raising for the period Sept. 6 to October 3 by $300,000. But she has raised the record breaking sum of $11.15 million since the start of the campaign and national media report Ronchetti is only slightly outspending MLG on the airwaves in the final month. Then there's the outside special interest money--much more of which appears to be coming in on the Democrat's side and prompted in large part by his abortion flub. But if Ronchetti has excelled at anything during this campaign, it is raising money. If only he could buy back that meeting with Smotherman. Things may have looked differently for MLG at this point--if there had been no US Supreme Court ruling overturning abortion rights and no Ronchetti-Smothermon sit down. Money, as the saying goes, is indeed "the mother's milk of politics" but serendipity will always have a ride on the roller coaster of La Politica. SOS CONTEST
. . . her administration’s robust record of strengthening campaign finance rules to fight corruption and make our politics more transparent, her swift and effective leadership combating election disinformation by providing voters with accurate & accessible information, and her indisputable record of honoring the will of New Mexico voters in each election. The SOS faces Republican Audrey Trujillo, a native of Santa Fe, who appeared to be a promising entrant until it became evident that she is an election denier. She has called Biden's 2020 win a "coup" and compared voting systems in the US to those in "any other communist country like Venezuela." It does not appear New Mexicans will be hearing those comments on their TV sets or many others from her. Trujillo reported just $33,000 in cash on hand as of October 3. The SurveyUSA poll earlier this month had MTO at 47 percent and Trujillo at 32 percent. Despite the election tumult of recent years NM elections have run smoothly under MTO's watch but not without challenges. Several counties have tried to withhold certification of the presidential results. Recently the SOS testified on Capitol Hill about the national threat to democratic elections. Trujillo ran into trouble early when it was discovered her Twitter account linked Jews to vaccinations and mocked Mexicans. As we said, when she first announced her candidacy she looked promising. If re-elected Toulouse Oliver could become the longest continuously-serving SOS in state history. She was elected in 2016 to fill out the unexpired term of Republican Dianna Duran who resigned in a corruption scandal. She was elected to a full term in 2018. If she serves another that would be a record continuous ten years in the office. But it's not the all-time record for service as SOS. We'll explain that on the Thursday blog. EYES ON THE HOUSE  The eyeballs are now eyeing key state House races looking for some drama in Campaign '22--and we look at some of them via those money reports. In that closely watched District 28 battle in the ABQ NE Heights, Republican Nicole Chavez reported $115,000 in cash on hand as of October 3, but Dem Pamelya Herndon had $154,000. The race of late is seen tilting toward Herndon, who would be the first Black woman elected to a NE Heights seat. But ethnic voting and how the abortion issue finally plays out keeps this one on the watch list. In nearby District 27 Dem Rep. Marian Matthews reports $109,000 in cash on hand. Republican Bob Godshall's report was not yet available but he has raised little and is relying on GOP PAC money to see him through. Dem consultant Sisto Abeyta believes this one stays with Matthews and that Herndon is also headed in the right direction. In House District 30 where Dem Rep. Natalie Figueroa is getting a stiff challenge from Republican Kurstin Johnson, Figueroa reported $105,000 in the bank for the final month. Johnson couldn't keep pace but still had $93,000 in cash, enough to force an upset if the messaging took hold, but this district has been a Dem keeper since Republican Nate Gentry left it in 2018. In District 23 in Sandoval County where Dem Rep. Daymon Ely is retiring, Republican Alan Martinez reported $28,000 in cash on October 3. Democrat Ramon Montano reports $11,000, so neither are ringing the register hard. But the District has a 56 percent GOP performance rating in the last presidential race helping to boost Martinez. On ABQ's Westside in District 29 Dem Rep. Joy Garratt reported nearly $139,000 in cash as of Oct. 3. Republican Greg Cunningham had $70,000 for the final days plus outside GOP money. This one is lean Dem but where R's are playing the crime card heavily. Also on the Westside, in District 17 Dem Cynthia Borrego started slow on the money train but has picked up speed and reported she had over $87,000 in cash on hand for the final stretch. Ellis McMath her GOP opponent reported $18,000. Even with outside GOP help, Borrego's name ID will make this one difficult for the R's to pry loose. In District 68 in far NW Bernallio County, where Democrat Karen Bash is retiring, Dem Charlotte Little reported $79,000 in cash on hand while Republican Robert Moss had $45,000. Little has raised more, is spending more and appears in good shape. In District 39 in the Silver City area in the SW, former Dem state Rep. Rudy Martinez has the rare chance of flipping a Republican held seat to the Dems. That's because the Dems already own 45 of the 70 House seats and there are few more to be had. Martinez reported $72,000 in cash on Oct. 3. The report of his foe, GOP Rep. Luis Terrazas, was not available late Monday. At last report he had $114,000 in cash. In Las Cruces in District 36 Dem Rep. Nathan Small is getting a challenge from Republican Kimberly Skaggs who reported spending $74,000 in the prior two months and had cash totaling $47,000 for the finish. But Small reported $126,000 in cash and that ought to close that deal in this lean Dem district. It''s clear that outgoing House Speaker Brian Egolf is finishing his tenure with a bang, ensuring that House Dems are amply funded. That still may not stop a loss of some seats given the lay of the land this cycle but it should prevent any disasters. FINAL DEBATE Tonight at 6:30 p.m. the second and final gubernatorial debate will air on KOAT. This is the home of New Mexico Politics. E-mail your news and comments. (newsguy@yahoo.com) Interested in reaching New Mexico's most informed audience? Advertise here. (c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2022 Tuesday, October 11, 2022Crotchgate Arrives As Ronchetti Looks For Hail Mary's To Throw At Large Polling Gap; Does Ad Stand Up? Plus: Early Voting In NM Starts Today, And: GOP Looks For Wins As Guv Race Fades The ad reminds everyone who didn't know (and there are few) that MLG settled a lawsuit brought against her by 2018 campaign aide James Hallinan for over $150,000. The suit was over his allegations that she sexually abused him by throwing a bottle of water on his crotch and then grabbed his crotch. The ad transcript and then the analysis: CNN: Tonight NM Gov. Michelle Lujan Gisham is battling a sexual misconduct allegation. AD NARRATOR: The Governor mocked the manhood of an openly gay staffer. (The screen shows her alleged quote: "Have you really even got anything down here?") CNN: And then grabbed his crotch through his clothes. JAMES HALLINAN: I was pressured to not report it to law enforcement. AD NARRATOR: The Governor paid the staffer more than $150,000 to settle and forced him to never talk about it again--Wouldn't this get you fired? Not that the charges--which MLG heartily denied while settling the case--are totally implausible. Those close to her will attest to her occasional ribald side. But there are issues with the ad. By running the news footage saying "tonight" the ad spins that the charges are new but they are nearly three years old. And Hallinan was never "forced" to do anything. He hired a battery of lawyers and negotiated a cash settlement. As for getting fired over the allegations. Good question. We know that when Trump talked about "grabbing pussy" it did not prevent him from getting hired as President. AD ANALYSIS, PLEASE
This isn't the silver bullet/"Willie Horton" ad Ronchetti needs to change MLG's momentum. First, it's too easy to refute and it's also a bizarre story. MLG isn't facing misconduct charges "tonight." The case is at least three years old. And the party in question wasn't "forced" to sign a non-disclosure agreement. He willingly signed (it can be assumed) because he wanted the settlement, and/or the matter to go away. Ronchetti's campaign consultant is also playing with fire because he recently settled a defamation case that involved similar smear tactics. If MLG wants to put Ronchetti down for the count, her response can be: how can voters trust Ronchetti about this last-minute attack when we can't trust where he stands on abortion? It's an easy pivot that takes the conversation back to the last issue Ronchetti wants to talk about with early voting underway--the Supreme Court overturning Roe v. Wade. DO IT EARLY
BernCo Clerk Linda Stover announces the Clerk’s Annex, at 1500 Lomas NW, will be open for in-person absentee voting and same-day registration Monday through Friday, 8 a.m. to 5 p.m., Oct. 11 through Oct. 21, 2022. Additional locations will be available for early voting and the continuation of same-day registration from Oct. 22 through Nov. 5, 2022.
Starting Oct. 11, the Clerk’s Office will begin mailing absentee ballots to those who have requested them. . .The last day to request an absentee ballot for the Election is Nov. 3, 2022. GOP LOOKS FOR WINS With Ronchetti fading in the polls some Republicans are looking more anxiously at the southern congressional district where Republican Rep. Yvette Herrell faces a stiff challenge from Democrat Gabe Vasquez in a newly drawn district that on paper leans slightly Democratic. One GOP Alligator remarked:
GOP heavy hitters have slated a fund-raiser for all GOP House candidates at the ABQ Country Club tomorrow to raise money to continue their tough on crime mailers that are of concern to House Dem hopefuls. Hosts include former GOP Chairman Harvey Yates, Dale and Rep. Gail Armstrong (of TLC fame), well-known ad man (not madman) Steve McKee and old warhorse Mickey Barnett. Former GOP Guv candidate and state Rep. Rebecca Dow is assisting with fund-raising. The most optimistic Republicans have their side picking up as many as six house seats Election Night to cut into the Dems who hold 45 of the 70 seats. Their worse case scenario is that they lose two. HECTOR ARAGON?  That's a big bucks post that would surely pad the Balderas retirement account someday. Hey, maybe Hector can get the band back together and hire Brian Colón as his chief assistant. THE BOTTOM LINES A couple of clairfications. The latest SurveyUSA on the Guv race showing MLG with a 16 point lead is a four point increase over their early September survey. We had it higher in our first blog draft Monday. . . A number of readers pointed this one out. Christopher Wray is the director of the FBI, not head of the ABQ office. The Governor's office mistakenly called him David and we gave him a demotion. Well, 'tis the season of too much of everything. E-mail your news and comments. (newsguy@yahoo.com) Interested in reaching New Mexico's most informed audience? Advertise here. (c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2022 Monday, October 10, 2022SurveyUSA Continues To Break With The Polling Pack; Now Gives Enormous 16 Point Lead To MLG; New PPP Survey has MLG With 8 Point Lead, Plus: Exclusive Insider Details On That Mike Pence Roswell Visit The firm, working for KOB-TV, came with another eyebrow raiser Sunday night when it said the Dem Governor now sports an enormous 16 point lead over Republican challenger Mark Ronchetti, an increase of four points from their September survey that had her 12 points ahead and which was also greeted quizzically in some political quarters. The latest poll was conducted October 1-6 among 570 likely voters. Here are the results: MLG--53%; Ronchetti--37%; Libertarian Karen Bedonie--3% and undecided 7%. As much as that may depart from the conventional wisdom, the SurveyUSA top line number is not out of the ordinary. In 2018 MLG won 57 percent to Steve Pearce's 43 percent. The poll was conducted after the TV debate that the GOP has been messaging was won by Ronchetti. The next and final debate is Wednesday night on KOAT-TV at 6:30 p.m. What is still a little out of whack is the low Ronchetti number. The base NM GOP vote is about 43 percent and he has yet to reach that number in the KOB post primary polling. However, he also failed to go over 40 percent in the late August Journal poll. Republicans have been fretting that the Libertarian candidate is pulling conservative votes from Ronchetti. This past week Ronchetti rolled out an endorsement from former Republican Governor Gary Johnson who was the 2016 Libertarian presidential candidate. UNM poly sci professor Tim Krebs says the Republican is losing the campaign because for a high number of voters abortion has become more or as important as inflation and the economy, the key GOP issues. MLG sports a huge 29 point lead over Ronchetti with women and is ahead one percent among men in the SurveyUSA. The main takeaway from the poll is that MLG remains firmly in the lead and the race remains "lean Democratic" until SurveyUSA's numbers are confirmed by another poll showing a large lead. If that happens the race moves to the "likely Democratic" column. A new PPP poll released Sunday has MLG with an eight point lead--48 to 40 with the Libertarian getting 7 percent and undecided at 6 percent. The survey was conducted October 6 and 7 among 806 voters and had a margin of error of 3.5 percent There will be more polls but the one most awaited is the second ABQ Journal poll now scheduled for release October 30. In reporting the poll KOB said that the race was still far from over. They may have been looking at the Sept 8-11 Emerson College Poll done for their rival KRQE-TV that had it 48 to 43 percent. The 16 point lead SurveyUSA gives MLG means this race is over. Finished. Kaput. That big of a lead is way outside the poll's 5.8 percent margin of error. OTHER RESULTS Dem Raul Torrez carried a 17 point lead into the final month in the Survey USA poll, getting 50 percent to Jeremy Gay's 33 percent. Dem Sec. of State Maggie Toulouse Oliver still has not broken the magic 50 mark against her Hispanic Republican challenger. SurveyUSA called it 47% for MTO; 32% for Republican Audrey Trujillo and 3% for the Libertarian candidate. The incumbent is still on track, however, for a sizable victory. INSIDE THE PENCE VISIT
We gave the state heads-up back on September 27 on the upcoming Roswell fund-raiser featuring former Vice-President Mike Pence for GOP Guv candidate Ronchetti. But when Pence arrived last Thursday afternoon there was no further word from him or Ronchetti's camp on where the fund-raiser would be held and by whom. That's not shocking given that Pence has had a falling out with Trump and SE NM is a hotbed of support for the former president. In fact, Pence's visit was derided on social media by some Republicans as a visit by a RINO for RINO Ronchetti (Republican in name only.) The media was unable to discover what Pence was up to so we sent in our trusty Alligators to dig out the facts. They report that the fund-raiser for Ronchetti--going off at $5,000 a pop--was held at the Roswell home of attorney and Roswell Probate Court Judge Clarke Coll. He is the brother of Eric Coll, the chair of the Chaves County GOP. The father of Clarke and Eric Coll is Chuck Coll, whose brother was the late well-known GOP and Dem state Rep. Max Coll. He died in 2014 at age 82. What's interesting is that Max Coll made a famous party switch from Republican to Democrat in 1983 when Dem Toney Anaya was governor. He had moved from Roswell, where he was first elected, to Santa Fe and continued to serve in the state House from a district there, first as a Republican and then as a Democrat. He was, in fact, a RINO of his day. He was awarded the chairmanship of the House tax committee as a reward for his switch. Why Ronchetti risked bringing in Pence a month before the election when he must unite all wings of the GOP is a good question. Of course, money is always a reason and he and Pence worked hard to collect that cash without drawing much public attention to the matter. The picture posted here of Pence and Ronchetti at the Coll home is from Pence's social media. Earlier Thursday Pence visited Artesia and was briefed by officials on the Permian Basin oil boom. It's home to many a multi-millionaire who Pence will seek donations from if he makes a a '24 presidential run. That visit was not blacked out but received minimal news coverage. When all was said and done Pence sent out this tweet: I’m supporting @MarkRonchettiNM because he is a proven Conservative who will end the crime wave plaguing New Mexico, get this state’s economy running at full speed, and bring down the inflation that Joe Biden has unleashed on our country! PROTECTING THEIR OWN Just as you might have thought, the final 2021 redistricting of the state legislature was done by incumbents determined to protect themselves: New Mexico lawmakers protected themselves and their colleagues when they redrew political district maps crafted by a 2021 nonpartisan advisory commission, shielding incumbents of both parties from competition and making legislative elections less competitive, according to a new 59-page report co-authored by UNM political science professor Gabriel Sanchez. The study found no evidence that New Mexico Democrats, who have strong majorities in the House and Senate, politically gerrymandered their districts, a conclusion based on statistical analysis conducted by Sanchez’s co-author and University of Georgia professor David Cottrell. “The protection of incumbents was the greatest source of gerrymandering this session,” the authors concluded, based on the analysis and interviews with experts. The full report is here. THE BOTTOM LINES Join me at 5 p.m. today on KKOB 96.3 FM radio as we kick the NM political football around with TJ Trout. . . From Las Cruces: SouthWest Organizing Project and Citizens for Non-Partisan Civic Engagement will be hosting a candidate forum for the Doña Ana County Sheriffs race. It will take place on Tuesday, October 11th from 5-8PM in Old Mesilla at the historic Palacios Bar located at 2600 Avenida de Mesilla Ave. . . The name of the director of the FBI was misidentified in a news release from MLG's office that we ran a quote from. His correct name is Christopher Wray. This is the home of New Mexico Politics. E-mail your news and comments. (newsguy@yahoo.com) Interested in reaching New Mexico's most informed audience? Advertise here. (c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2022 |
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