Thursday, October 20, 2022Candelaria Bows Out Of Senate And Race Is On To Replace Him; Rep. Moe Maestas In Pole Position, Plus: Heating Up: Consultant McCleskey Unleashes The Nukes--Again, Also: BernCo Sheriff Showdown And Columnist Belshaw Dead In ABQ
That vote-counting led them immediately to ABQ Dem state Rep. Antonio "Moe" Maestas who quickly announced he will file an application with the commission to become the new senator and fill out the two years left on Candelaria's term. Maestas, whose westside House district overlaps with Candelaria's senate District 26, appears to have the votes. Our Alligators and insiders note that it will take the support of three of the five commissioners to win the appointment. They pointed to Dem Commissioners Michael Quezada, Charlene Pyskoty and Adriann Barboa as the likely Moe supporters. The timing is important. Progressive Dem Eric Olivas is running in November for the Pyskoty East Mountain seat and if he won he would not be prone to support Maestas. He beat Pyskoty in the June primary. Others are expected to seek the appointment but Maestas, an attorney who has served 13 years in the House, has angled for it since Candelaria made it known he was leaving because of dissatisfaction with the direction of the senate and governor and to devote more time to family. Candelaria, 35, started as a Democrat but switched to independent as his disagreements with Gov. Lujan Grisham and the senate Dem leadership grew. He submitted his resignation letter to the Secretary of State Wednesday, saying: As a private citizen, I pray that our Legislature will commit itself to real cultural and institutional reform. It is a rare exception to the rule when a bill is voted up or down on its merits. Instead, all too often, political tribalism and personal political ambition matter more than the common good. The now former senator said a return to politics someday is not out of the question but for now he wants to shed the limelight. Candelaria, a Princeton grad and attorney, was the first openly gay male to be elected to the 40 member Senate and at 25 one of the youngest senators in state history--if not the youngest. He will also be remembered for an important challenge of the Governor's powers that led to a state Supreme Court ruling that said federal relief funds can't be spent without approval from the legislature. SENATOR MAESTAS?
That's why Maestas rounding up the support of progressive Commissioner Barboa is of interest. Barboa requested the assistance of Maestas and ABQ state Rep. Javier Martinez recently in securing a controversial $50,000 capital outlay appropriation. It was approved by lawmakers but has been stalled by the state after an investigative report by KRQE-TV found it to be wanting. Also, the progressive community in Barboa's SE Heights district is not monolithic. It has been divided and she beat a fellow progressive in her 2020 primary there. If Maestas is appointed and runs for a full four year term for the seat in 2024, progressives will no doubt challenge him. They have crossed horns often with Vanessa Alarid, a well-known lobbyist and the wife of Maestas who represents Santolina, the developers of a proposed giant and controversial housing development in the western part of the county. That more than a decade of seniority Maestas has in the House would not transfer to the senate. HEATING UP  It's par for the course for the controversial slash and burn consultant whose tactics often come under fire but who believes ultra-negative is the only way to go in a campaign's final days when you are trailing. In this case he's up against a Democratic firewall that successfully pushed him back in the 2020 US Senate race when he handled Ronchetti against Dem Ben Ray Lujan and also in '21 when he tried without success to put Sheriff Manny Gonzales into the ABQ mayor's chair. The scorching attack ad features the grandparents of Monique Gonzales who was allegedly murdered by Chris Beltran who the Ronchetti campaign and the Republican Governors Association argue was wrongfully released from prison twice by the MLG administration and resulted in him killing his ex-girlfriend, Monique. In the ad, the woman's grandmother reaches for tissues as she mourns her daughter's death. It's the kind of melodramatic theatre consultants go to when a race needs something big to happen. Certainly Ronchetti and McCleskey need something big. The RGA is pouring big dollars into the Beltran case to try to move the polling numbers and while MLG's campaign has not responded, the PAC for the Dem Governors Association is responding. Their new ad spotlights a fact check done by KOB-TV that shoots down the veracity of the Beltran attack. The Ronchetti camp on social media called the reporter who did that fact check a "clown" and said his poor reporting played into the hands of the DGA. Yes, the temperature and the tempers are rising and right on schedule. Widespread early voting begins Saturday. MONSTER BLOG ALERT We're not stopping even as we yell: "Please, someone stop us!" IN THE HOUSE
Jaramillo, a speech language pathologist who is CEO of Positive Outcomes that assists persons with disabilities, had $105,000 in cash on hand while Hammack reported $32,000 in cash. The new district is part of the one held by outgoing GOP state Rep. Rebecca Dow so this is an opportunity for the Dems to add to their majority. That's a rarity this cycle since they already hold 45 of the 70 House seats. The district is a swing seat with 52 percent Dems and 48 percent Republicans. Jaramillo has been spending some of her money on this video. Hammack has been low key. She did not fill out the ABQ Journal questionnaire or appear at a forum held by KRWG-TV in Las Cruces. The district takes in parts of Socorro, Sierra and Dona Ana Counties. It's a race we will closely watch Election Night, November 8 on KANW 89.1 FM. SHERIFF SHOWDOWN
Allen, who retired as a Sergeant after 19 years with the sheriff's department, is trying to juice things up before early voting gets heavy. He comes with this video endorsement from Attorney General Hector Balderas who says: John is a real cop not a politician. He's been putting away street criminals for years. Not sure if Hector is referencing Republican Paul Pacheco, the retired APD cop and former state rep who is running against Allen, but it sounds that way. Pacheco served two terms in the House before being defeated by Dem Rep. Daymon Ely in 2016. He is a native of the North Valley and served 27 years with APD before retiring.
Analysts give the edge to Allen because Democrats are now such a large majority in BernCo and because there has been little media on the race--surprisingly so given the crime crisis. Allen would be the first Black elected sheriff here. Sheriff Gonzales was the first Hispanic--or one of the first--to win the job. TURNOUT WATCH Early in-person voting began October 11 at county clerk's offices but already about 5 percent of the total vote for the election has been cast, based on our projected turnout of around 700,000. As of Wednesday morning 36,760 absentee and early votes had been tallied. That gets you to that 5 percent mark. Per state registration Democrats have cast the majority of those ballots. THE BOTTOM LINES
Jim, a longtime reader here, honored us with occasional helpful hints, corrections and even praise--which was humbly received. To our delight he even attended a couple of our Alligator dinners. Jim was a cut above columnist and a real gentleman. His friend and Journal reporter Ollie Reed Jr. wrote that he suffered a stroke recently and died Saturday at an ABQ hospital. Jim Belshaw was 78. . . ABQ City Councilor Pat Davis is on a mission to save small local news voices in the metro. His latest acquisition is a little jewel--The Sandoval Signpost based in Placitas that for years has been doing yeoman's work covering the area. News editor Bill Diven faithfully alerts us to the latest monthly edition and it's aways a good read. This month's issue takes a deep dive (or is that a Diven?) into the Sandoval County elections. And that, dear readers, is the conclusion of the Thursday Monster Blog. We will now unwind by staring at people raking their autumn leaves and return on Monday. Thanks for tuning in. Reporting from Albuquerque, I'm Joe Monahan and. . . This is the home of New Mexico Politics. E-mail your news and comments. (newsguy@yahoo.com) Interested in reaching New Mexico's most informed audience? Advertise here.   (c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2022 Wednesday, October 19, 2022MLG Approval Number Breaks Through Critical Mark; Odds-Setters Say Odds Of Victory High, Plus: She Continues TV Attack On Ronchetti But Not On What You Might Think, Plus: Follow Up On Knipfing Endorsement Mishap And Some Primary Fallout In the Morning Consult survey conducted from July 1 through September 30 MLG scored a 51 percent approval rating with 42 percent of the voters responding ranking her unfavorably. That's up from the 48 percent she won approval from in the survey conducted from January through March. 45 percent disapproved in that survey. The margin of error in the surveys is plus or minus 3 points. The 51 percent approval is a breakthrough but she is still at the lower range of approval among the nation's 50 governors. Only 12 garner approval ratings less than 51 percent leaving her the 38th most popular chief executive. That is, however, an improvement over March when her approval was only higher than seven of her colleagues and she ranked 44th in the nation. The approval rating tells us that MLG is on track for a victory over Republican Mark Ronchetti but it also tells us--along with a close reading of other polls--a possible limit on how she can go. That number appears to be around 53 percent, according to the polling site FiveThirtyEight. Their latest simulations of the MLG-Ronchetti race gives her an 89 out of 100 chance of winning November 8. That's after simulating the race 40,000 times. They have her getting 52.7 percent with Ronchetti at 44.9 and Libertarian Karen Bedonie at 2.4 percent--a 7.8 point lead for the incumbent. The 538 model is subject to change based on new polling and external events and is adjusted daily. ADJUSTING THE MESSAGE Roncehtti's fund-raisers have had to adjust their message as the polling gets gloomy. The are now citing a poll over a month old that had their candidate just five points behind: Recently Emerson College Polling conducted a test to see who is in the lead for the governor’s race…and it’s close, Joe. We’ve known all along that this would be a tight race, but never imagined it would come down to the wire like this. We’re within a 5 point margin - and we need your help. STILL ATTACKING  With her campaign nursing what appears to be a 7 to 10 point lead, MLG is still on the attack but not over what you may think. She ignores the Crotchgate sex abuse ad airing against her as well as the ad attacking her over early release of state prisoners. Instead, her campaign came with a new spot Tuesday that criticizes Ronchetti's tax plan, arguing that it would mean the state's $8.4 billion General Fund budget would be chopped by a harsh $2 billion. The ad relies on a study of Ronchetti's proposed tax cuts by the NM Voices for Children Action Fund. The study, authored by James Jimenez, a former cabinet secretary for the Dept. of Finance And Administration, said: The Ronchetti plan proposes permanent tax cuts – personal income taxes and gross receipts taxes – and rebates that in just the first year exceed $2 billion, which is about 25% of the state budget. This is two billion that we won’t have in future years, so where is this money coming from? Ronchetti says that his plan has a safeguard built in to prevent state revenues from tumbling as he pursues large rebates for citizens: Every New Mexican, regardless of age, would receive $100 for every
$1 billion the state receives in oil and gas revenue each year. At current oil and gas production and budget surplus levels, this would amount to more than $500 for every man, woman, and child in New Mexico. Trigger mechanisms would be put in place to adjust the rebate in the event of steep revenue downturns to avoid cuts. Ronchetti would cut state tax rates on lower and middle income earners and leave the top rate of 5.9 percent intact for individuals learning over $210,000 and married couples with income over $315,000. The rate would go to zero for those earning up to $20,000 a year. MLG signed off on nearly $700 million in rebates this year in the wake of huge funding surpluses financed by dollars coming in from the booming oil and gas fields. The state's budget surplus is forecast to continue to be well over $2 billion. The workers featured in the MLG ad warn: (Ronchetti's) plan would force billions in cuts to education, police and health care. Billions in cuts hurting all New Mexicans. Either Mark Ronchetti doesn’t know what his plan actually costs or he doesn’t want us to know.” The campaign says the ad features "three teachers, two doctors, a nurse, and a retired police captain." That the incumbent is ignoring the big TV hits that Ronchetti is hoping will turn his campaign around tells much. First, that she does not believe those ads will have much impact. Second, she wants to get more Democrats to the polls to ensure victory by focusing on budget cuts that could impact everyday life for everyday New Mexicans. Third, that the economy is very important and you can't be all abortion all the time. PS. The Ronchetti campaign says the Dem Gov. Association has hit with an ad that rebuts the RGA Beltran crime ad. BEDONIE'S "DISSERVICE"  Libertarian Karen Bedonie doesn't have smooth TV ads but she does have her voice and used it--as we reported--Tuesday to unload on Ronchetti, saying he "will never be Governor" as long as she is in the race. That led Santa Fe County GOP official Brett Kokinadis to offer this: Bedonie confessed that she is in the NM Governors' race to split the vote. This is a disservice to all New Mexicans. Candidate Bedonie should do what is right and drop out of the race, offering a fair choice to New Mexican voters. Our state is in a critical place. We cannot stand to have these types of games being played when the livelihood of New Mexicans are at stake. PRIMARY FALLOUT The June primary seems eons ago but it was hard fought and downright bitter in some of the contests, perhaps no more than in the race for the Democratic nomination for sate treasurer featuring former Sandoval County Treasurer Laura Montoya and challenger Heather Benavidez. The fallout from their acerbic showdown brings this: The State Ethics Commission has approved a settlement with state Treasurer Tim Eichenberg. The settlement comes after a complaint was filed alleging violations of the Governmental Conduct Act by the state treasurer. In the April 27 complaint filed with the commission, it was alleged Eichenberg used the seal of the treasurer of the state of New Mexico on political communications that supported the candidacy of Heather Benavidez. The Governmental Conduct Act prohibits the use of powers and resources of public offices to pursue private interests by legislators, public officials, and public employees. The settlement requires Eichenberg to comply with the Campaign Reporting Act by reporting independent expenditures made in support of the Benavidez campaign. Eichenberg was fined $250, the maximum allowed by law. Montoya faces Republican Harry Montoya of Santa Fe in the Treasurer's race which she is heavily favored to win. DICK'S DANCE (CONT.)  When he was called out for getting involved in a protest over abortion that raised ethical questions about his actions Knipfing quipped: I am a big boy and I know what the consequences are. It's 34 years later but Knipfing could use that line again today. He asserted his journalistic credentials to publicly denounce anti-abortion ads against MLG as "false" only to see his credibility crumble when his long held anti-abortion views were diclsosed to the public. THE BOTTOM LINES  Meanwhile, a reader has thoughtfully penned a song in honor of our Monster Blogging. With Halloween around the corner it is appropriately sung to the hit tune Monster Mash: He does the blog, he does the monster blog The monster blog, it's an instant smash Joe does the blog, it spreads in a flash Joe does the blog, he does the monster blog Yeah. It can be a fun gig, kids. This is the home of New Mexico Politics. E-mail your news and comments. (newsguy@yahoo.com) Interested in reaching New Mexico's most informed audience? Advertise here. (c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2022 Tuesday, October 18, 2022Monster Blogging Continues: Bedonie Turns Her Furor On Ronchetti; "He Will Never Be Governor"; RGA Digs In Their Heels On Crime, Plus: MLG Rides It Out; No Ad Responses to GOP Crime And Sex Abuse Hits, And: Knipfing Effort To Convert Voters Runs Into Reality, Also: SOS History Lesson
Libertarian Party Guv candidate Karen Bedonie labels herself "Bedonie Tough" and she's getting tough as nails when it comes to Republican Mark Ronchetti. Fed up with R's who accuse her of being a spoiler and urging her to get out of the race so conservatives can unify against MLG, Bedonie came with this late game tongue-lashing of her rival: It’s amazing some of the phone calls that come in. Like, what does it take for a person to really hate somebody to call the campaign and to yell at our campaign team and telling them that Karen’s gonna split the vote? How crazy are you really thinking this is because it’s impossible to split a vote that was never his? Ronchetti is not a conservative, he’s not a New Mexican. The only comfort I find in this race is that man (Mark Ronchetti) cannot win with me in the way. That man cannot win this race. He will never be governor as long as I am alive and well and in this race. Those are more than fighting words. They read like an open invitation to anti-abortion Republicans and pro Trump conservatives to make their home with her. With the video getting widespread attention on social media, the invitation is more than an idle threat. (The conservative Pinon Post interviewed Bedonie further on her comments.) The GOP nominee's Republican support has already wavered some because of his muddled abortion stance, his backing away from Trump and with some GOP insiders because of his refusal to compete at the party's February GOP pre-primary convention. As usual, experts are uncertain what impact the third party hopeful in a Guv race will ultimately have. An early October PPP poll had Bedonie garnering 7 percent. The late August ABQ Journal survey had her scoring 5 percent. History generally shows that third party contenders peak early and their margins slowly erode toward Election Day. If that occurs with Bedonie--who does not have the funds for a major media campaign--that would have her finishing at around 3 percent or about 21,000 votes of a projected turnout of 700,000. In the latest average of recent polls Ronchetti is 9 percent behind MLG. If that lead or something akin to it occurs on Election Night, his supporters would be hard-pressed to fault Bedonie. But if the race turned into a cliff-hanger, you're back to the experts really not knowing if she was the deciding factor that tipped the race. The most significant third party candidate in modern Guv history was in 1994 when Democratic Governor Bruce King lost re-election to Republican Gary Johnson who received 50 percent of the vote to 40 percent for King and 10 percent for Green Party candidate Roberto Mondragon. Mondragon's run was impactful but probably not decisive. King would have had to get every Mondragon vote to have closed the gap with Johnson. AS THE CLOCK TICKS The national GOP, Ronchetti and his consultant Jay McCleskey appear to be digging in their heels on what they still see as their last best chance to win the Guv race. The Republican Governors Association says the buy for their 60 second ad attacking MLG over a state prisoner released early and who went on to kill his ex-girlfriend will be near $1 million or, as the RGA puts it, "high six figures." The ad went up Thursday morning following the Wednesday night debate where Ronchetti pummeled MLG over the release. But there is a problem. The MLG camp has not put up an ad to counter what is an immense TV buy in the relatively cheap ABQ market. We asked longtime GOP consultant Bob Cornelius for his take: For now the Governor's campaign appears to believe the Beltran crime ad will not have the desired effect and they will ride it out. The same goes for the Ronchetti ad attacking her settlement of a lawsuit over sex abuse allegations from a former campaign staffer. That tells us her polling shows her with a comfortable enough lead to withstand some erosion. Does that change in the days ahead? We're all watching. The huge buy by the RGA has a downside. Because they are a PAC they do not get the same favorable advertising rates that a candidate's campaign gets so they could be paying a whole lot to get their message across. That means the million bucks may sound bigger than its actual bite. Pushing the crime bet even harder Ronchetti has released a plan called "Monique's Law," named after the ex-girlfriend of Chris Beltran who is charged with killing her after his early release. He says it is designed to "prevent the improper early release of dangerous criminals." That full plan is here. We reported on flaws in the RGA Beltran ad on the Monday blog. DICK'S DANCE
He's been off the air 8 years but retired TV news anchorman Dick Knipfing retains high name ID among older voters and appeal to independents. That's where Mark Ronchetti, a former TV weatherman and former colleague of Knipfing's, hopes his old friend's endorsement in a new TV ad delivers some punch. However that endorsement in which Knipfing condemns abortion attack ads against Ronchetti as "false" is not a clean shot for Ronchetti who for years bantered nightly with Knipfing on the KRQE news set. Knipfing has a controversial public record on--of all things--abortion--a top voting issue this year and a seemingly constant bugaboo for the GOP hopeful. A number of years ago Knipfing, while serving as a TV news anchor, took part in a public anti-abortion event, even though participation in partisan events is generally prohibited by a station's news personnel. We don't recall if Knipfing received any discipline over the incident and we could not find any news articles, although the archives of the ABQ Journal and/or ABQ Tribune will have them. Suffice it to say, the misstep took a bite out of Knipfing's reputation as an impartial newsman. (State Dems came with a copy of the 1988 Journal article that we referenced in the blog and which is now posted her. Click to enlarge.) Then in 2017, three years after his retirement from KRQE, Knipfing authored an ABQ Journal op-ed piece that urged the NM senate to take a up a bill banning late term abortion. He said: During my more than 50 years reporting and anchoring news on New Mexico television, I steered clear of taking public positions on controversial issues. I’m still inclined to keep my opinions to myself, but sometimes an issue is so important that staying silent is not possible. Late-term abortion is such an issue.  So while Knipfing is a legendary TV newsman, he has shown himself to hold strong anti-abortion views on duty and off duty. In his TV endorsement Knipfing dismisses the attack ads on abortion against Ronchetti without mentioning them. Photos of several of those ads are shown in the background as Knipfing says: You trusted me for 50 years to report accurately and truthfully. Well, now these attack ads againt Mark Ronchetti are not true. I've known Mark for 20 years. He's one of the best people I know--truthful, smart compassionate. Knipfing's sweeping dismissal of the veracity of the ads is based solely on his telling the audience to rely on the "trust" he says they have in him--not any statements of fact or a journalistic investigation, even though he implies that he has made one. Ditto for his citation of his past experience with Ronchetti as a stand-up guy. That is not proof that the ads are "false." Knipfing, who also gave a TV endorsement to Republican Ronchetti in his 2020 US Senate race against Dem Ben Ray Lujan and who says his religious convictions account for his pro-life position, was truly a newsman of note in state history. But that was then and this is now. Today he is a hardcore partisan on abortion with demonstrated Republican leanings--not an objective observer committed to delivering the proven truth to a TV news audience--or the one tuning in to his campaign commercial. And that’s the way it is. HOW ABOUT HOWIE? A thought popped into our head when we noticed Lt. Governor Howie Morales campaigning in the Deming area this week. If Dem Gabe Vasquez comes up short in his race against Rep. Yvette Herrell would Morales, a former state senator from Silver City, be the middle of the road Hispanic candidate the Dems turn to in 2024 to take on Herrell? If MLG and Morales are re-elected his term would run thru 2026 and while there is talk about him trying to succeed her in the Governor's chair the path of least resistance could be the southern congressional seat. A high turnout presidential year would more fully reveal the lean Dem nature of the new district. Just a thought. SOS LESSON
Joe, Actually, if she wins this race and serves her full term, Maggie Toulouse Oliver will become the longest continuously-serving Secretary of State in New Mexico history. However, the title of longest serving Secretary of State goes to Democrat Rebecca Vigil-Girón (now Rebecca D. Vigil), who served 12 years in the position, first from 1987 to 1990, when statewide officials could only serve one four-year term at a time, and then after the constitution was changed to allow two four year-terms, Secretary Vigil-Girón was elected in 1998 and re-elected in 2002. In addition, at the time of statehood, the first two Secretaries of State were Antonio Lucero, who served from 1912 to 1918, and Manual Martínez, who served from 1919 to 1922. For the last century, beginning with the 1922 election of Soledad Chacón, the last 23 elected Secretaries of State have been women. (In the aftermath of a resignation in 2015, Brad Winter was appointed to serve as Secretary of State, but he did not run for the position). Well done, Daniel. We go everywhere around here--including the deepest thickets of La Politica. And that concludes the Tuesday Monster Blog. Will there be yet another tomorrow? Stay tuned. This is the home of New Mexico Politics. E-mail your news and comments. (newsguy@yahoo.com) Interested in reaching New Mexico's most informed audience? Advertise here. (c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2022 Monday, October 17, 2022Monster Monday Blog: Deleted Tweets Upend Vasquez In Race With Herrell; Her Heavy Baggage Taking Back Seat To Character Attacks, Plus: Stansbury Handles Garcia Holmes In Congress Debate, Also: RGA Gets It Half Right But That's Not Good Enough
"It's not the crime, it's the cover-up" is one of the older adages in politics. In the case of Dem congressional hopeful Gabe Vasquez there was no crime but he did cover up his past and that past is now being brought to the fore by Republicans. That the liberal Vasquez of Las Cruces could be a fish out of water in the largely rural southern congressional district (which includes parts of West ABQ and the South Valley) is no secret but his challenge of GOP Rep. Yvette Herrell really hit a sandbar Friday when CNN came with this deflating report: (Vasquez), campaigning as a moderate in a tightly contested race, deleted tweets attacking the oil and gas industry, rationalizing rioting in summer 2020, and comparing the Trump administration to the Ku Klux Klan. Vasquez's deleted tweets won't be incendiary to supporters on the left but they are sure to rattle more middle of the road voters. For example, this tweet: The tip of the spear of a white supremacist system ends in state sanctioned, cold-blooded murder of black individuals. There is so much to undo, to unravel this system & shift power structures to fundamentally change this country. That’s why the cars and buildings are burning. And a deleted tweet from November 2020 now drips with irony as Vasquez urges his supporters to "stay strong" and to proudly express their left wing views, only to later delete his declaration: To my fellow Dems, let’s avoid playing to the R’s talking points & playing on their field! It’s OK to oppose fracking, OK to support the Green New Deal, OK to support Medicare for all, OK to talk about progressive immigration reform, OK to stand for what you believe. #StayStrong,” Veteran political operative Steve Cabiedes, a Vasquez supporter, summed up the damage this way: One should never hide who they are. DC consultants suck. Cabiedes assumes it was the national Dems who scoured Vasquez's social media and had him delete the controversial tweets in preparation for his run for higher office. In reaction Vasquez did not address the deleted tweets but said: I do not believe defunding the police is a path toward a fair criminal justice system. That’s why, as a Las Cruces council member, I voted to increase funding for the police by millions and worked directly with our police chief to improve community policing. … I will always put New Mexico’s oil and gas workers first, by supporting responsible fossil fuel development that protects their health, wages, and futures. At the same time, I will hold oil and gas companies accountable who are not paying their fair share and polluting our public lands. As for not supporting defunding the police, the national GOP is airing a hard-hitting spot that shows Vasquez being interviewed by a TV station wearing a mask to prevent himself from being identified and saying: We need serious police reform in this country. . . It's not just about defunding the police, it's about defunding the system. To which the GOP ad says: We can't trust a fraud like Gabe Vasquez. Vasquez responded with this ad from retired Luna County Sheriff Raymond Cobos vouching for his funding of law enforcement while on the Cruces city council. The Vasquez campaign says the then Las Cruces city councilor disguised himself for the TV interview because he wanted the organizers of the protest to be the focal point not himself. CORNERING HERRELL
The new Second Congressional District is friendlier to the Dems than the old district that elected Herrell in 2020. In fact Biden carried the new district by six points and Vasquez's polling shows him with a very slight lead. Vasquez and the national Dems have effectively used abortion against Herrell, arguing that she supports the procedure with no exceptions for rape, incest or to save the life of the mother. She was forced to clarify her position, saying that Vasquez is misrepresenting her stance and that she does support exceptions. Herrell refused to vote to certify the election of President Biden. She also voted against critical federal funding for victims of this year's brutal wildfires in the north. And she voted against the $280 billion Chips Act that expands government support for domestic semiconductor companies, even though Intel is one of the largest employees in the ABQ metro. S And she has downplayed the January 6 Capitol riots and has not separated herself from extremist and Cowboys for Trump founder Couy Griffin of Otero County. That's a lot of baggage but Herrell is consistent and authentic in her beliefs which makes the claim that Vasquez is not authentic--a left wing Dem posturing as a moderate--a significant issue between the competitors. Some Democrats say the fault for their problems doesn't only rest with Vasquez but also US Senator Martin Heinrich who championed the candidacy of his former aide early on and cleared the field for him of serious primary challengers. Heinrich has become a serial endorser of Dem hopefuls up and down the ballot. But serious vetting is required of a congressional candidate for one of the few toss up districts in the nation. That obviously was not done by Heinrich and done too late by the national Democrats. Vasquez may still have a path to victory but it has become much more narrow--when it should have been wide open. ABQ CONGRESS DEBATE  On crime, Garcia Holmes, a retired APD detective, bore down on the crime crisis by pledging a tougher border policy to stem the tide of fentanyl and using federal grant money to hire more police. And she charged her Dem opponent with supporting the defunding of the police. Stansbury grappled with the defunding charge when she won her seat in a special election in June 2021. This time she responded by pointing to her record as an incumbent providing additional resources to law enforcement. But that was the last of her being on the defensive as she sharply and repeatedly shifted the narrative with the slogan: I am the only pro-choice, pro science, pro democracy candidate. That was a triple threat for Garcia Holmes who was the GOP 1st District congressional nominee in 2020 and lost the race 58 to 42 to Dem Deb Haaland. On the election charge, she said voters deserve to know that elections have "integrity" but she did not deny that she was a denier when Stansbury pointed out Garcia Holmes had filed a lawsuit along with the state GOP asking that the 2020 Bernalillo County ballots be impounded. Previously when asked whether the election had been stolen Garcia Holmes said she "did not know and had no idea." At the debate she said "I am not an election denier; I am an election defender." She denied signing a pledge in support of banning abortion in all instances, but Stansbury twice said she had and state Dems posted the signed pledged on their social media. In an earlier statement Garcia Holmes said she could not comment on a proposal from Senator Lindsay Graham that would ban abortion after 15 weeks of pregnancy. In the debate Garcia Holmes said she was "being persecuted for her religious beliefs." Stansbury is also up with a TV ad on the Garcia Holmes abortion stance. Another ad highlights her first year in office. Garcia Holmes is running an ad touting her service in law enforcement and her crime fighting credentials. In the money race the Roswell Daily Record reported Sunday night that in the quarter ending September 30 Stansbury received $411,511 in contributions and Garcia Holmes $125,962. Stansbury had $380,609 in cash on hand Sept, 30 and Garcia Holmes had $256,134. Stansbury has raised a total of $1.144 million for the '22 cycle compared to $350,000 for Garcia Holmes. FROM PROGRESSIVE TO PRAGMATIC Elected amid what now seems like a progressive peak, Stansbury has taken to calling herself a "pragmatic" Democrat not a progressive, although she still retains support from the party's left. The switch in descriptions is acknowledgment that the ABQ district now stretches south into conservative Otero, Lincoln and Chaves counties. Actually, a bit of moderation may be good for her as she becomes more appealing to the state as a whole. Stansbury, 43, an ABQ native, is a cool cucumber media wise. Her appeal is her competence, her quick intellect and the fast and productive start she has gotten off to in DC. Garcia Holmes has a warm personality, works well with others and as half Native American and half Hispanic represents the diversity of the district. The ABQ area seat is ranked likely Democratic by the major DC political pundits. ALLIGATOR STRIKE
The RGA dark money PAC, with enough cash to light up a black hole, tried to Willie Hortonize the race between Republican Mark Ronchetti and MLG but instead of setting the electorate on fire they burned themselves. Their choice of Willie Horton this time is Chris Beltran, featured in a 60 second ad that rains down on MLG for allegedly releasing him from prison too early and then seeing him kill his ex-girlfriend. But Beltran was released twice from prison and the ad screws up the timeline and provokes an argument over whether Republican prosecutors were at fault for not fully prosecuting him to keep him locked up. That started the word slush. Well over a thousand of them from the ABQ Journal, ditto for the New Mexican and a damning fact check from KOB-TV that called out the accuracy of the ad. All of that coverage to try to explain a 60 second ad that should have been a clean, late-inning knockout or TKO. Do these guys not know what they are putting out or don't they care? Take a look : (Ronchetti is targeting) the Lujan Grisham executive order that authorized more than 700 inmates to be released early from prison due to the COVID-19 pandemic. The executive order was issued in April 2020 and rescinded last month, though a Lujan Grisham spokeswoman said the decision was not related to Ronchetti’s criticism. The (RGA) ad. . .targets the policy, even though the murder Beltran is accused of did not occur during the time period after Beltran was first released from prison under the executive order as the ad implies. “Michelle Lujan Grisham is failing to keep us safe,” the ad’s narrator says. And more confusing word salad from the New Mex. And here's the TV fact check that delivers a hammer blow to the high-paid consulting class lounging around the RGA: This ad by the Republican Governors Association highlights a horrific case of a repeat offender going in and out of our state's correctional system then eventually killing his ex-girlfriend. . .Visually attaching Christopher Beltran's second release to the Governor's executive order is inaccurate. All this to explain what is supposed to be a cut and dry hit piece that sends MLG reeling. If done right the only thing the press should be writing is an answer to the question: "Why did you release this guy, Governor?" And then take her to the woodshed. Of course, the apologists on the socials pass it off as a minor mistake and note that Beltran was released and did kill someone. But even one hole in an ad at this nuclear level is inexcusable and incompetent. What? The public is supposed to say. "It's okay if you tell us half truths. We'll figure out what you got right." Heck, we'd bet former NMGOP hitman Kevin Moomaw spilled his bourbon over in Austin when he got wind of this one. And, no, we're not playing favorites. We were the first media to call out MLG's consultants when they wrongfully accused Ronchetti of wanting to defund the police. RGA, for only getting it half right in your most important '22 NM Guv ad, you are hereby the victim of an Alligator strike. Congrats. . . or something This is the home of New Mexico Politics. E-mail your news and comments. (newsguy@yahoo.com) Interested in reaching New Mexico's most informed audience? Advertise here. (c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2022 |
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