Candelaria & Maestas (Journal)

Within minutes of ABQ state Senator Jacob Candelaria making good on his promise to resign his state senate seat, politicos were counting votes on the Bernalillo County Commission which will choose Candelaria's replacement for the seat he has held since 2013. 

That vote-counting led them immediately to ABQ Dem state Rep. Antonio "Moe" Maestas who quickly announced he will file an application with the commission to become the new senator and fill out the two years left on Candelaria's term. 

Maestas, whose westside House district overlaps with Candelaria's senate District 26, appears to have the votes.

Our Alligators and insiders note that it will take the support of three of the five commissioners to win the appointment. They pointed to Dem Commissioners Michael Quezada, Charlene Pyskoty and Adriann Barboa as the likely Moe supporters.

The timing is important. Progressive Dem Eric Olivas is running in November for the Pyskoty East Mountain seat and if he won he would not be prone to support Maestas. He beat Pyskoty in the June primary. 

Others are expected to seek the appointment but Maestas, an attorney who has served 13 years in the House, has angled for it since Candelaria made it known he was leaving because of dissatisfaction with the direction of the senate and governor and to devote more time to family.

Candelaria, 35, started as a Democrat but switched to independent as his disagreements with Gov. Lujan Grisham and the senate Dem leadership grew. He submitted his resignation letter to the Secretary of State Wednesday, saying:

The now former senator said a return to politics someday is not out of the question but for now he wants to shed the limelight. 

Candelaria, a Princeton grad and attorney, was the first openly gay male to be elected to the 40 member Senate and at 25 one of the youngest senators in state history--if not the youngest. 

He will also be remembered for an important challenge of the Governor's powers that led to a state Supreme Court ruling that said federal relief funds can't be spent without approval from the legislature. 

Barboa

If Maestas, 54, gets the senate appointment the county commission would then meet to name a replacement for his District 16 House seat. Progressives have made it known they would field a candidate to replace Maestas who they have sparred with over the years. 

That's why Maestas rounding up the support of progressive Commissioner Barboa is of interest. Barboa requested the assistance of Maestas and ABQ state Rep. Javier Martinez recently in securing a controversial $50,000 capital outlay appropriation. It was approved by lawmakers but has been stalled by the state after an investigative report by KRQE-TV found it to be wanting. 

Also, the progressive community in Barboa's SE Heights district is not monolithic. It has been divided and she beat a fellow progressive in her 2020 primary there.

If Maestas is appointed and runs for a full four year term for the seat in 2024, progressives will no doubt challenge him. They have crossed horns often with Vanessa Alarid, a well-known lobbyist and the wife of Maestas who represents Santolina, the developers of a proposed giant and controversial housing development in the western part of the county. 

That more than a decade of seniority Maestas has in the House would not transfer to the senate. 

It's par for the course for the controversial slash and burn consultant whose tactics often come under fire but who believes ultra-negative is the only way to go in a campaign's final days when you are trailing. 

In this case he's up against a Democratic firewall that successfully pushed him back in the 2020 US Senate race when he handled Ronchetti against Dem Ben Ray Lujan and also in '21 when he tried without success to put Sheriff Manny Gonzales into the ABQ mayor's chair. 

The scorching attack ad features the grandparents of Monique Gonzales who was allegedly murdered by Chris Beltran who the Ronchetti campaign and the Republican Governors Association argue was wrongfully released from prison twice by the MLG administration and resulted in him killing his ex-girlfriend, Monique. In the ad, the woman's grandmother reaches for tissues as she mourns her daughter's death. 

It's the kind of melodramatic theatre consultants go to when a race needs something big to happen. Certainly Ronchetti and McCleskey need something big. 

The RGA is pouring big dollars into the Beltran case to try to move the polling numbers and while MLG's campaign has not responded, the PAC for the Dem Governors Association is responding. Their new ad spotlights a fact check done by KOB-TV that shoots down the veracity of the Beltran attack. The Ronchetti camp on social media called the reporter who did that fact check a "clown" and said his poor reporting played into the hands of the DGA. 

Yes, the temperature and the tempers are rising and right on schedule. Widespread early voting begins Saturday. 

Tara Jaramillo

In our wrap on competitive state House races recently we left out District 38 featuring Dem Tara Jaramillo of Socorro and Republican Sandy Hammack because the finance reports were not available. They are now and they show Jaramillo with a big money lead over retired rancher and businesswoman Sandy Hammack as of October 3. 

Jaramillo, a speech language pathologist who is CEO of Positive Outcomes that assists persons with disabilities, had $105,000 in cash on hand while Hammack reported $32,000 in cash.

The new district is part of the one held by outgoing GOP state Rep. Rebecca Dow so this is an opportunity for the Dems to add to their majority. That's a rarity this cycle since they already hold 45 of the 70 House seats. 

The district is a swing seat with 52 percent Dems and 48 percent Republicans. 

Jaramillo has been spending some of her money on this video. Hammack has been low key. She did not fill out the ABQ Journal questionnaire or appear at a forum held by KRWG-TV in Las Cruces. 

The district takes in parts of Socorro, Sierra and Dona Ana Counties. It's a race we will closely watch Election Night, November 8 on KANW 89.1 FM.

John Allen

The race for Bernalillo County sheriff hasn't attracted much attention and that is due in part to lackluster fundraising by Democrat John Allen and Republican Paul Pacheco. 

Allen, who retired as a Sergeant after 19 years with the sheriff's department, is trying to juice things up before early voting gets heavy. He comes with this video endorsement from Attorney General Hector Balderas who says: 

Not sure if Hector is referencing Republican Paul Pacheco, the retired APD cop and former state rep who is running against Allen, but it sounds that way. 

Pacheco served two terms in the House before being defeated by Dem Rep. Daymon Ely in 2016. He is  a native of the North Valley and served 27 years with APD before retiring.

Paul Pacheco

Allen is critical of outgoing two term Democratic Sheriff Manny Gonzales pointing to his "cozying" up with Trump and for resisting lapel camera videos for deputies before finally allowing them. Pacheco says he will bring "modern" policing to the agency, increase the number of deputies on the street and fight "catch and release" in the judicial system. 

Analysts give the edge to Allen because Democrats are now such a large majority in BernCo and because there has been little media on the race--surprisingly so given the crime crisis.

Allen would be the first Black elected sheriff here. Sheriff Gonzales was the first Hispanic--or one of  the first--to win the job. 

Early in-person voting began October 11 at county clerk's offices but already about 5 percent of the total vote for the election has been cast, based on our projected turnout of around 700,000. As of Wednesday morning 36,760 absentee and early votes had been tallied. That gets you to that 5 percent mark. Per state registration Democrats have cast the majority of those ballots. 

New Mexico's Governor has finally crossed a critical threshold this election year. Her approval rating has topped the 50 percent mark, seen as vital for an incumbent's re-election prospects. 

In the Morning Consult survey conducted from July 1 through September 30 MLG scored a 51 percent approval rating with 42 percent of the voters responding ranking her unfavorably. 

That's up from the 48 percent she won approval from in the survey conducted from January through March. 45 percent disapproved in that survey. 

The margin of error in the surveys is plus or minus 3 points.

The 51 percent approval is a breakthrough but she is still at the lower range of approval among the nation's 50 governors. Only 12 garner approval ratings less than 51 percent leaving her the 38th most popular chief executive. 

That is, however, an improvement over March when her approval was only higher than seven of her colleagues and she ranked 44th in the nation. 

The approval rating tells us that MLG is on track for a victory over Republican Mark Ronchetti but it also tells us--along with a close reading of other polls--a possible limit on how she can go. That number appears to be around 53 percent, according to the polling site FiveThirtyEight.

Their latest simulations of the MLG-Ronchetti race gives her an 89 out of 100 chance of winning November 8. That's after simulating the race 40,000 times. They have her getting 52.7 percent with Ronchetti at 44.9 and Libertarian Karen Bedonie at 2.4 percent--a 7.8 point lead for the incumbent.

The 538 model is subject to change based on new polling and external events and is adjusted daily. 

Roncehtti's fund-raisers have had to adjust their message as the polling gets gloomy. The are now citing a poll over a month old that had their candidate just five points behind:

With her campaign nursing what appears to be a 7 to 10 point lead, MLG is still on the attack but not over what you may think. She ignores the Crotchgate sex abuse ad airing against her as well as the ad attacking her over early release of state prisoners. 

Instead, her campaign came with a new spot Tuesday that criticizes Ronchetti's tax plan, arguing that it would mean the state's $8.4 billion General Fund budget would be chopped by a harsh $2 billion. 

The ad relies on a study of Ronchetti's proposed tax cuts by the NM Voices for Children Action Fund. The study, authored by James Jimenez, a former cabinet secretary for the Dept. of Finance And Administration, said:

Ronchetti says that his plan has a safeguard built in to prevent state revenues from tumbling as he pursues large rebates for citizens: 

Ronchetti would cut state tax rates on lower and middle income earners and leave the top rate of 5.9 percent intact for individuals learning over $210,000 and married couples with income over $315,000. The rate would go to zero for those earning up to $20,000 a year.

MLG signed off on nearly $700 million in rebates this year in the wake of huge funding surpluses financed by dollars coming in from the booming oil and gas fields. The state's budget surplus is forecast to continue to be well over $2 billion. 

The workers featured in the MLG ad warn:

The campaign says the ad features "three teachers, two doctors, a nurse, and a retired police captain."

That the incumbent is ignoring the big TV hits that Ronchetti is hoping will turn his campaign around tells much. First, that she does not believe those ads will have much impact. Second, she wants to get more Democrats to the polls to ensure victory by focusing on budget cuts that could impact everyday life for everyday New Mexicans. Third, that the economy is very important and you can't be all abortion all the time. 

PS. The Ronchetti campaign says the Dem Gov. Association has hit with an ad that rebuts the RGA Beltran crime ad. 

Libertarian Karen Bedonie doesn't have smooth TV ads but she does have her voice and used it--as we reported--Tuesday to unload on Ronchetti, saying he "will never be Governor" as long as she is in the race. That led Santa Fe County GOP official Brett Kokinadis to offer this:

The June primary seems eons ago but it was hard fought and downright bitter in some of the contests, perhaps no more than in the race for the Democratic nomination for sate treasurer featuring former Sandoval County Treasurer Laura Montoya and challenger Heather Benavidez. The fallout from their acerbic showdown brings this:

Eichenberg was fined $250, the maximum allowed by law. 

Montoya faces Republican Harry Montoya of Santa Fe in the Treasurer's race which she is heavily favored to win.

In our first version Tuesday of our report on the TV ad endorsement of Mark Ronchetti by retired TV news anchorman Dick Knipfing we said that we could not find any news reports about the anti-abortion rally the longtime anchor had attended. State Dems were quick to find this article from 1988 in the ABQ Journal that fully explains what our memory could not.  It's posted here. Click to enlarge. 

When he was called out for getting involved in a protest over abortion that raised ethical questions about his actions Knipfing quipped: 

It's 34 years later but Knipfing could use that line again today. 

He asserted his journalistic credentials to publicly denounce anti-abortion ads against MLG as "false" only to see his credibility crumble when his long held anti-abortion views were diclsosed to the public.

Okay, we stopped just short of delivering our third in a row Monster Blog this week. It wasn't easy and we'll be back tomorrow with much more. 

Meanwhile, a reader has thoughtfully penned a song in honor of our Monster Blogging. With Halloween around the corner it is appropriately sung to the hit tune Monster Mash:

Yeah. It can be a fun gig, kids. 

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Karen Bedonie

Furious campaigning continues. The start of in-person early voting Saturday has hearts pounding as thousands of early voters will be lost to the campaigns after each day of such voting. They must act now even though Election Day itself is three weeks from today. Around here that can only mean a second consecutive Monster Blog.  Show us no mercy. The Alligators must and will be fed. . .  

Libertarian Party Guv candidate Karen Bedonie labels herself "Bedonie Tough" and she's getting tough as nails when it comes to Republican Mark Ronchetti. Fed up with R's who accuse her of being a spoiler and urging her to get out of the race so conservatives can unify against MLG, Bedonie came with this late game tongue-lashing of her rival:

Those are more than fighting words. They read like an open invitation to anti-abortion Republicans and pro Trump conservatives to make their home with her. 

With the video getting widespread attention on social media, the invitation is more than an idle threat. 

 (The conservative Pinon Post interviewed Bedonie further on her comments.)

The GOP nominee's Republican support has already wavered some because of his muddled abortion stance, his backing away from Trump and with some GOP insiders because of his refusal to compete at the party's February GOP pre-primary convention. 

As usual, experts are uncertain what impact the third party hopeful in a Guv race will ultimately have. An early October PPP poll had Bedonie garnering 7 percent. The late August ABQ Journal survey had her scoring 5 percent. 

History generally shows that third party contenders peak early and their margins slowly erode toward Election Day. If that occurs with Bedonie--who does not have the funds for a major media campaign--that would have her finishing at around 3 percent or about 21,000 votes of a projected turnout of 700,000. 

In the latest average of recent polls Ronchetti is 9 percent behind MLG. If that lead or something akin to it occurs on Election Night, his supporters would be hard-pressed to fault Bedonie. But if the race turned into a cliff-hanger, you're back to the experts really not knowing if she was the deciding factor that tipped the race. 

The most significant third party candidate in modern Guv history was in 1994 when Democratic Governor Bruce King lost re-election to Republican Gary Johnson who received 50 percent of the vote to 40 percent for King and 10 percent for Green Party candidate Roberto Mondragon. 

Mondragon's run was impactful but probably not decisive. King would have had to get every Mondragon vote to have closed the gap with Johnson.

The national GOP, Ronchetti and his consultant Jay McCleskey appear to be digging in their heels on what they still see as their last best chance to win the Guv race. The Republican Governors Association says the buy for their 60 second ad attacking MLG over a state prisoner released early and who went on to kill his ex-girlfriend will be near $1 million or, as the RGA puts it, "high six figures."

The ad went up Thursday morning following the Wednesday night debate where Ronchetti pummeled MLG over the release. But there is a problem. The MLG camp has not put up an ad to counter what is an immense TV buy in the relatively cheap ABQ market. We asked longtime GOP consultant Bob Cornelius for his take:

The huge buy by the RGA has a downside. Because they are a PAC they do not get the same favorable advertising rates that a candidate's campaign gets so they could be paying a whole lot to get their message across. That means the million bucks may sound bigger than its actual bite.

Pushing the crime bet even harder Ronchetti has released a plan called "Monique's Law," named after the ex-girlfriend of Chris Beltran who is charged with killing her after his early release. He says it is designed to "prevent the improper early release of dangerous criminals." That full plan is here. 

We reported on flaws in the RGA Beltran ad on the Monday blog. 

Knipfing

The Tuesday Monster blog rolls on. (Can nothing stop it?)

 

"It's not the crime, it's the cover-up" is one of the older adages in politics. In the case of Dem congressional hopeful Gabe Vasquez there was no crime but he did cover up his past and that past is now being brought to the fore by Republicans.

That the liberal Vasquez of Las Cruces could be a fish out of water in the largely rural southern congressional district (which includes parts of West ABQ and the South Valley) is no secret but his challenge of GOP Rep. Yvette Herrell really hit a sandbar Friday when CNN came with this deflating report:

(Vasquez), campaigning as a moderate in a tightly contested race, deleted tweets attacking the oil and gas industry, rationalizing rioting in summer 2020, and comparing the Trump administration to the Ku Klux Klan.   

Vasquez's deleted tweets won't be incendiary to supporters on the left but they are sure to rattle more middle of the road voters. For example, this tweet:

The tip of the spear of a white supremacist system ends in state sanctioned, cold-blooded murder of black individuals. There is so much to undo, to unravel this system & shift power structures to fundamentally change this country. That’s why the cars and buildings are burning.

And a deleted tweet from November 2020 now drips with irony as Vasquez urges his supporters to "stay strong" and to proudly express their left wing views, only to later delete his declaration:

To my fellow Dems, let’s avoid playing to the R’s talking points & playing on their field! It’s OK to oppose fracking, OK to support the Green New Deal, OK to support Medicare for all, OK to talk about progressive immigration reform, OK to stand for what you believe. #StayStrong,”

Veteran political operative Steve Cabiedes, a Vasquez supporter, summed up the damage this way:

One should never hide who they are. DC consultants suck.

Cabiedes assumes it was the national Dems who scoured Vasquez's social media and had him delete the controversial tweets in preparation for his run for higher office. 

In reaction Vasquez did not address the deleted tweets but said: 

I do not believe defunding the police is a path toward a fair criminal justice system. That’s why, as a Las Cruces council member, I voted to increase funding for the police by millions and worked directly with our police chief to improve community policing. … I will always put New Mexico’s oil and gas workers first, by supporting responsible fossil fuel development that protects their health, wages, and futures. At the same time, I will hold oil and gas companies accountable who are not paying their fair share and polluting our public lands.

As for not supporting defunding the police, the national GOP is airing a hard-hitting spot that shows Vasquez being interviewed by a TV station wearing a mask to prevent himself from being identified and saying:

We need serious police reform in this country. . . It's not just about defunding the police, it's about defunding the system. 

To which the GOP ad says:

We can't trust a fraud like Gabe Vasquez. 

Vasquez responded with this ad from retired Luna County Sheriff Raymond Cobos vouching for his funding of law enforcement while on the Cruces city council.

The Vasquez campaign says the then Las Cruces city councilor disguised himself for the TV interview because he wanted the organizers of the protest to be the focal point not himself.  

CORNERING HERRELL

The new Second Congressional District is friendlier to the Dems than the old district that elected Herrell in 2020. In fact Biden carried the new district by six points and Vasquez's polling shows him with a very slight lead. 

Vasquez and the national Dems have effectively used abortion against Herrell, arguing that she supports the procedure with no exceptions for rape, incest or to save the life of the mother. She was forced to clarify her position, saying that Vasquez is misrepresenting her stance and that she does support exceptions.

Herrell refused to vote to certify the election of President Biden. She also voted against critical federal funding for victims of this year's brutal wildfires in the north. And she voted against the $280 billion Chips Act that expands government support for domestic semiconductor companies, even though Intel is one of the largest employees in the ABQ metro. S

And she has downplayed the January 6 Capitol riots and has not separated herself from extremist and Cowboys for Trump founder Couy Griffin of Otero County. 

That's a lot of baggage but Herrell is consistent and authentic in her beliefs which makes the claim that Vasquez is not authentic--a left wing Dem posturing as a moderate--a significant issue between the competitors.

Some Democrats say the fault for their problems doesn't only rest with Vasquez but also US Senator Martin Heinrich who championed the candidacy of his former aide early on and cleared the field for him of serious primary challengers. 

Heinrich has become a serial endorser of Dem hopefuls up and down the ballot. But serious vetting is required of a congressional candidate for one of the few toss up districts in the nation. That obviously was not done by Heinrich and done too late by the national Democrats. Vasquez may still have a path to victory but it has become much more narrow--when it should have been wide open.

ABQ CONGRESS DEBATE

For the first 15 minutes of a snappy half hour Friday night KOB TV debate Republican Michelle Garcia Holmes held her own as she contrasted positions with Rep. Melanie Stansbury on crime and the economy. But in the second half--when the topics turned to election denial and abortion--Stansbury put her opponent away. 

On crime, Garcia Holmes, a retired APD detective, bore down on the crime crisis by pledging a tougher border policy to stem the tide of fentanyl and using federal grant money to hire more police. And she charged her Dem opponent with supporting the defunding of the police. 

Stansbury grappled with the defunding charge when she won her seat in a special election in June 2021. This time she responded by pointing to her record as an incumbent providing additional resources to law enforcement. But that was the last of her being on the defensive as she sharply and repeatedly shifted the narrative with the slogan:

I am the only pro-choice, pro science, pro democracy candidate. 

That was a triple threat for Garcia Holmes who was the GOP 1st District congressional nominee in 2020 and lost the race 58 to 42 to Dem Deb Haaland.

On the election charge, she said voters deserve to know that elections have "integrity" but she did not deny that she was a denier when Stansbury pointed out Garcia Holmes had filed a lawsuit along with the state GOP asking that the 2020 Bernalillo County ballots be impounded. 

Previously when asked whether the election had been stolen Garcia Holmes said she "did not know and had no idea." At the debate she said "I am not an election denier; I am an election defender." 

She denied signing a pledge in support of banning abortion in all instances, but Stansbury twice said she had and state Dems posted the signed pledged on their social media. 

In an earlier statement Garcia Holmes said she could not comment on a proposal from Senator Lindsay Graham that would ban abortion after 15 weeks of pregnancy. 

In the debate Garcia Holmes said she was "being persecuted for her religious beliefs."

Stansbury is also up with a TV ad on the Garcia Holmes abortion stance. Another ad highlights her first year in office. Garcia Holmes is running an ad touting her service in law enforcement and her crime fighting credentials. 

In the money race the Roswell Daily Record reported Sunday night that in the quarter ending September 30 Stansbury received $411,511 in contributions and Garcia Holmes $125,962. Stansbury had $380,609  in cash on hand Sept, 30 and Garcia Holmes had $256,134.

Stansbury has raised a total of $1.144 million for the '22 cycle compared to $350,000 for Garcia Holmes.

FROM PROGRESSIVE TO PRAGMATIC

Elected amid what now seems like a progressive peak, Stansbury has taken to calling herself a "pragmatic" Democrat not a progressive, although she still retains support from the party's left.

The switch in descriptions is acknowledgment that the ABQ district now stretches south into conservative Otero, Lincoln and Chaves counties. Actually, a bit of moderation may be good for her as she becomes more appealing to the state as a whole. 

Stansbury, 43, an ABQ native, is a cool cucumber media wise. Her appeal is her competence, her quick intellect and the fast and productive start she has gotten off to in DC. 

Garcia Holmes has a warm personality, works well with others and as half Native American and half Hispanic represents the diversity of the district.

The ABQ area seat is ranked likely Democratic by the major DC political pundits. 

ALLIGATOR STRIKE 

Joe Monahan

How can you get your most important TV ad of the cycle wrong? We mean sloppily wrong. But that's what happened to the Republican Governors Association (RGA) as they threw their final Hail Mary at the NM Guv race which MLG leads by varying degrees in all public polling. 

The RGA dark money PAC, with enough cash to light up a black hole, tried to Willie Hortonize the race between Republican Mark Ronchetti and MLG but instead of setting the electorate on fire they burned themselves. 

Their choice of Willie Horton this time is Chris Beltran, featured in a 60 second ad that rains down on MLG for allegedly releasing him from prison too early and then seeing him kill his ex-girlfriend. But Beltran was released twice from prison and the ad screws up the timeline and provokes an argument over whether Republican prosecutors were at fault for not fully prosecuting him to keep him locked up. 

That started the word slush. Well over a thousand of them from the ABQ Journal, ditto for the New Mexican and a damning fact check from KOB-TV that called out the accuracy of the ad.

All of that coverage to try to explain a 60 second ad that should have been a clean, late-inning knockout or TKO. Do these guys not know what they are putting out or don't they care? Take a look :

(Ronchetti is targeting) the Lujan Grisham executive order that authorized more than 700 inmates to be released early from prison due to the COVID-19 pandemic. The executive order was issued in April 2020 and rescinded last month, though a Lujan Grisham spokeswoman said the decision was not related to Ronchetti’s criticism. The (RGA) ad. . .targets the policy, even though the murder Beltran is accused of did not occur during the time period after Beltran was first released from prison under the executive order as the ad implies. “Michelle Lujan Grisham is failing to keep us safe,” the ad’s narrator says. 

And more confusing word salad from the New Mex. 

And here's the TV fact check that delivers a hammer blow to the high-paid consulting class lounging around the RGA:

This ad by the Republican Governors Association highlights a horrific case of a repeat offender going in and out of our state's correctional system then eventually killing his ex-girlfriend. . .Visually attaching Christopher Beltran's second release to the Governor's executive order is inaccurate.

All this to explain what is supposed to be a cut and dry hit piece that sends MLG reeling.  

If done right the only thing the press should be writing is an answer to the question: "Why did you release this guy, Governor?" And then take her to the woodshed.

Of course, the apologists on the socials pass it off as a minor mistake and note that Beltran was released and did kill someone. But even one hole in an ad at this nuclear level is inexcusable and incompetent. 

What? The public is supposed to say. "It's okay if you tell us half truths. We'll figure out what you got right."

Heck, we'd bet former NMGOP hitman Kevin Moomaw spilled his bourbon over in Austin when he got wind of this one.

And, no, we're not playing favorites. We were the first media to call out MLG's consultants when they wrongfully accused Ronchetti of wanting to defund the police. 

RGA, for only getting it half right in your most important '22 NM Guv ad, you are hereby the victim of an Alligator strike. Congrats. . . or something 

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