Thursday, June 29, 2023Sen. Kernan's Resignation Sets Up Political Fireworks Featuring Two Brother And Sister Teams; Her Senate Seat Appears Headed To Rep. Scott But The Family Intrigue Is Over Replacing Him In House
And did we mention that there is a second brother-sister combo that is also front and center in the political intrigue about to unfold in Lea, ground zero for the historic oil boom? Let's do this. . . Kernan, who turns 76 this year, could have stayed until the end of her term in '24 but she's playing tag with GOP state Rep. Larry Scott who is already talking up members of the three county commissions (Chavez, Eddy and Lea) that comprise Senate District 42 and that will nominate a replacement for Kernan to send to MLG. Scott, 71, an engineer in the oil biz and who has served in the House since 2015 from District 62, all of which is in Lea, appears to be a lock for the Senate seat. He is a reliable conservative and his oil background is a plus. Kernan is a former teacher who stood out in the Senate for her education expertise while Scott would be one of the chamber's top fossil fuel experts. It's hard to argue the Legislature doesn't need them given the immense state revenue coming out of the Permian Basin and that's set to continue for years. BROTHERS AND SISTERS
The fireworks are coming over Rep. Scott's House seat that will be vacant if, as expected, he secured the Senate seat via appointment. Already lining up for the House appointment that would be made by the Lea County Commission is Deborah Hicks, a Hobbs power house, who once chaired the NMSU Board of Regents and also is president and CEO of Pettigrew and Associates. For over 55 years, Pettigrew & Associates has been a leader in fully integrated engineering, surveying and construction services serving New Mexico, Texas, Kansas, Oklahoma and other states. The Pettigrew would be none other than GOP state Rep. Randy Pettigrew of District 61 in Lea, first elected in 2020 and brother of Deborah Hicks. (Also an engineer. Surprise!) But don't go searching for brother-sister congratulations cards just yet. There's another powerhouse working to replace Rep. Scott. She would be Elaine Sena Cortez, the Executive Director of MyPower, Inc., the largest youth development program in Lea County. And get this: Her brother is Lea County Commissioner Jonathan Sena. (Hit that explanation point!)
The count we're getting from our GOP Alligators reveals Sena Cortez is just one vote shy of the three needed on the five member commission to snag the House appointment. Our R's report that the Scott district is getting increasingly Hispanic and Sena Cortez would be a good fit but when she ran in the '22 GOP primary against Scott he beat her 64 to 36 percent. As for Hicks, although she was part of the Gov. Martinez political machine that split the party in two, like Sena she is also a top notch Lea County product. SO. . . Can Sena Cortez find a third vote on the commission to thwart the entry of Hicks into the House and pull the curtain down early on the Hicks-Pettigrew brother sister act?
More seriously, perhaps Cortez Sena's commissioner brother has a change of heart and decides to vote for her anyway giving her the three votes needed to go to the Roundhouse. There's no law that says he couldn't but there would be repercussions from Hicks and her bro Randy. All we can say is stay tuned and if you're looking for some real fireworks this Fourth of July, don't forget Lea County. They're lighting up the sky this year. This is the home of New Mexico politics.
E-mail your news and comments. (newsguy@yahoo.com) Interested in reaching New Mexico's most informed audience? Advertise here.   (c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2023 Wednesday, June 28, 2023Sources Report Bregman Eyeing Run For BernCo DA Next Year; Candidacy Would Cross MLG Who Appointed Him; She Said He Would Not Seek Election, No Comment From Sam, Plus: A Deeper Dive On Satellite Internet For Our Rural Neighbors In Need
Our reliable sources report Bregman is prepping a run for DA next year, breaking a compact he made with MLG who announced when she appointed him in January that he would fill out the two years of the term of Raul Torrez, who was elected attorney general, and not seek the office in his own right. At the time the Governor's office said: Bregman will serve the remaining two years of the existing term. He will not run for re-election to the office, focusing on the office’s work to combat crime and build stronger, safer communities. We asked Bregman and his spokeswoman via text message for a comment on the reports that he recently told several assistant district attorneys that he was going to seek election to a four year term but we were ghosted. Democrat Bregman could face a Democratic primary next June if he is indeed reneging on his no election pledge. As for the GOP, they can't elect a sheriff countywide anymore so there's no reason to think the Dem primary winner won't win the general election as well. Bregman received some good news Tuesday that will only encourage him to ignore MLG's wishes. A UNM study shows more of the accused are staying in jail before their trials in Bernalillo County with about 60 percent of the DA's pretrial detention requests now being granted by District Court judges. Said Sam: We are beginning to move the needle in this town when it comes to crime. I mean, it may not feel like it overnight, but I think if we continue to grind it out, we’ll get done what we need to get done. We can see it now "Vote Bregman. He's moving the needle!" It's okay to cringe, Governor. SATELLITE DEEP DIVE  "I support it and I think it is something the state should look at," Borrego of ABQ's westside told us. As a top city of ABQ planner Borrego was involved in communications decisions involving the major providers. She also noted the slow rural broadband rollout and said environmental and regulatory issues could continue to plague fiber and that it makes sense to have satellite internet as part of the mix. The state broadband plan is due to be sent to the the feds by year's end so lawmakers may have to get their opinions known before the 2024 legislative session. ABQ Dem state Sen. Michael Padilla has been in the fore of the broadband issue and we'll be interested to see if he weighs in. There is little question that thousands of rural New Mexicans would opt for the satellite service if offered and if it were subsidized. They are worn out and apprehensive. In fact, for many satellite would suffice permanently. That's because the service continues to improve, as recently noted by PC magazine: It's hard to appreciate just how good Starlink is compared with every other option for rural internet users until you've tried them side by side. While DSL and other satellite providers are still popular, SpaceX's Starlink network is really the best choice for people who don't have access to fixed broadband like cable or fiber. And, as our test numbers clearly show, it's a service that is actively improving. Combine the faster download and upload speeds, better latency, and growing access to equipment, and that's more than enough for me to say that Starlink remains a winner. Starlink is very aware of the role they could play. They asked the FCC to apportion some of the $885 million from the 2020 Rural Digital Opportunity Fund to satellite internet as well as cable and telecommunications companies. The FCC initially approved but then reversed itself, citing similar reasons as those given by Kathy Schlegel, director of the NM Broadband Office, who is standing in the doorway. She (and the FCC majority) argue the service is not as fast nor as dependable as fiber laid down by the giant telecommunications companies. But when you have no connection at all or an old dial-up "fast" is a very relative term. POLITICS AT PLAY?
We received email regarding the politics of broadband. Most of them along these lines: Elon Musk. He’s persona non grata on the Left. In fact he’s so persona non grata when Biden held an EV “summit” at the White House, Elon was pointedly not invited. Seems odd given that if it wasn’t for Elon Musk and Tesla the EV scene wouldn’t be anywhere near where it is today. Given that Elon owns StarLink, I suspect that’s why there’s no mention of Starlink in NM’s plans. MLG and her sycophants in state government are just toeing the party line. It’s pure politics, nothing more. Can New Mexico lawmakers dig into this and determine whether satellite internet is one of the viable solutions for our broadband woes? It is urgent. If a 10 year old rural student unable to receive broadband but was signed up for satellite, the difference could be seven crucial years in their educational life. The fiber build out is going to take at least seven more years to complete and that's under the most optimistic scenario. Doesn't that young student deserve to have every chance to fulfill their educational needs and pursue a better life? Or should they struggle through elementary, junior high and high school technologically handicapped as their elders argue about speed and latency? Those are questions the Governor, her broadband director and our legislators should be asking--and answering--as young New Mexicans wait and wait some more to go to work on their dreams. This is the home of New Mexico politics.
E-mail your news and comments. (newsguy@yahoo.com) Interested in reaching New Mexico's most informed audience? Advertise here. (c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2023 Tuesday, June 27, 2023State Share Of Federal Broadband Pie Is $675 Million; High Speed At High Cost; Can Satellite Play A Role? Broadband Office Says No But Readers Differ Even all that money is not expected to completely get the job done because extending the fiber for broadband to remote locations is hyper-expensive: Broadband companies such as Verizon, Comcast, Charter Communications and AT&T have been reluctant to provide access to low-population, rural communities because the investments are expensive and the regions do not offer a lot of subscribers. The lack of broadband access drew attention during COVID-19 shutdowns that forced students into online schooling. Om the June 20 blog we urged the state Office of Broadband Access, which has been faulting high speed satellite delivery as not fast enough, to give it a second look, otherwise it will be years before many rural New Mexicans see fiber rolled out to their doors. The Governor's office says 23 percent of New Mexico households do not have access to "reliable internet." The state says it will submit a plan to the federal government for spending the $675 million by year's end. Meanwhile, we hear from some readers experienced with satellite delivery. Dan Warren, reading from the Gila in Sierra County, writes: The cost to subsidize this service per household seemed outrageous. Now with Starlink it seems crazy to spend this kind of money. I have lived off-the-grid in the Gila Mountains for 12 years. I started out with Wild Blue satellite and then moved to Hughes Satellite when its speeds were a little better. About 5 years ago, I switched to Viasat when it looked like a better deal. (Wild Blue became Viasat.) However, none of these systems worked well enough to operate a smartphone using WiFi calling. There is a reason Starlink works and the others don't. Elon Musk's Starlink uses a constellation of satellites in Low Earth Orbit (LEO). Viasat and Hughes have just a few satellites that are thousands of miles farther from the Earth and the signals take too long to go back and forth. When I was using Viasat, I compared costs in various locations. I found that I was paying $127 per month for the bronze plan while someone in a city like El Paso would pay around $90 for the gold plan. Essentially, poor people in rural New Mexico were subsidizing Viasat so they could try to compete with fiber optic systems in the cities. In the early days of Wild Blue, the government subsidized dish installations for rural residents and we were promised a plan costing about $40 per month for life. That service eventually failed because the satellites started losing their geosynchronous orbit. Eventually they could not get my modem to work anymore and that is when I switched to Hughes. Starlink works so well that I feel like I am using the Comcast cable I had in Albuquerque years ago. Thank you immensely for all the great work you do! WHEREVER THEY GO  Only in New Mexico, Tierra del mañana.
Here’s a picture of what internet access looks like @ Canjilon Lakes. If that doesn’t qualify as the middle of nowhere I don’ know what does. The Starlink antenna is at the left end of the camper trailer. They have internet access wherever they go. THE BOTTOM LINES From the state Senate Republican Caucus: Former state Senator Carroll Leavell passed away at the age of 86. Senator Leavell served in District 41, representing Eddy and Lea counties, from 1997 to 2018.
The Senate Republican Caucus issued the following statement: Senator Leavell will be remembered as a statesman and leader of the utmost integrity. As a longtime member of the Senate, he put the needs of his constituents ahead of politics and he was widely respected by members on both sides of the aisle. Senator Leavell will be dearly missed and we send our deepest condolences to his family during this difficult time. On the Monday blog we said last October's ABQ Journal poll listed "mixed feelings" as one of the responses for voters in a poll of ABQ Mayor Keller's job performance. That option was not listed but 22 percent of the respondents volunteered it as their answer. . . This is the home of New Mexico politics.
E-mail your news and comments. (newsguy@yahoo.com) Interested in reaching New Mexico's most informed audience? Advertise here. (c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2023 Monday, June 26, 2023Keller's Big Council Wins Could Turbocharge His Quest For A Third Term; Opposition Withers With No Name Leader But Still A Long Way To Go; The State Of ABQ La Politica Is Up Next
Keller spent his political capital wisely at perhaps the most watched Council meeting in years and as a job approval rating of 33 percent from last October hovered over his head. He ushered in major housing reform as the Council on a 5 to 4 vote approved his controversial plan to allow more single family homeowners to build casitas on their lots as another solution to the stubborn housing crunch. And while careful not to stick his neck out too publicly, he ably applied his political skills to convince the Council to nix a plan making the office of Mayor essentially a ceremonial post, replaced by a council and city manager. That plan died on a 6 to 3 vote. The Mayor took a victory lap: The votes on housing and powers of the mayor demonstrate that our city’s checks and balances truly work. As mayor, I proposed bold ideas to address our housing challenges, council made reasonable changes to address neighborhood aesthetic concerns raised through the nearly 9-month input process, and we came to a solution that might not give everyone exactly what they wanted, but strikes a balance to benefit Albuquerque. After those votes the political class chimed in with the old sayings that "you can't beat someone with no one" and that Keller is "blessed by a weak opposition." Both are true and the inability of Dem Councilor Louie Sanchez and Republicans Renee Grout and Dan Lewis to take down Keller on a rare occasion when the public was paying attention reinforced them. Still, Keller now has valuable and considerable experience and councilors who may in the past been able to get the better of him seem out of his weight class. Lewis is an old hand at Keller getting the best of him. He lost the 2017 mayoral runoff in a 62 to 38 percent landslide. He appears to want another go at it in 2025 but the implosion of the Council opposition may give him second thoughts--or should. One thing the opposition has plenty of is time--time to find a credible opponent. But the other names circulating besides Lewis are lackluster and it would take a well-known and well-financed moderate to end his tenure on the 11th Floor of Government Center. A competent moderate could also use some help from the left. If a prominent progressive Dem also challenged Keller it could change the math. But after last week's debacle Keller's foes are in no mood to game out the future. Instead they look forward to a long summer vacation where Keller's name does not cross anyone's lips. THE ROAD AHEAD  That complication seems to depend on what happens at the November election for four City Council seats, including District 8 where longtime GOP Councilor Trudy Jones is retiring. Jones has been a key crossover vote for Keller, doing just that last week on that narrow 5 to 4 casita vote. But her seat could go to retired APD officer and mortgage lender Dan Champine--if the district remains true to its Republican form and does not opt for Democrat Idalia Lechuga-Tena. If that happens would Champine be a sometimes crossover vote for Keller like fellow Republican Jones? If not that would mean Keller, who has avoided having his vetoes being overridden several times on 5 to 4 votes, could see that switch to 6 to 3, the margin required to override a veto. The votes could be the aforementioned Councilors Lewis, Sanchez and Grout, who are not up for re-election, joined by Champine and GOP Councilor Brook Bassan. The sixth vote would be moderate Dem Klarissa Pena who has quite often showed her independence from the 11th Floor. A wild card is District 6. Dem Councilor Pat Davis is leaving and the field to succeed him is unsettled. If the new councilor elected there had Keller misgivings, it could be a rough ride indeed. THE 33 PERCENT Keller watchers point out that the ABQ Journal poll from late October of last year gave him a dreary 33 percent job approval rating but they add the poll was somewhat unusual. Twenty one percent responded that they had "mixed feelings" when asked to rate Keller's performance which could mean Keller still has a path to get to 50 percent in a two way race. That's why the current trend of a weak and inchoate opposition is so important to him if he is to win an unprecedented third consecutive mayoral term. WHAT GIVES?  But normal means expected and we could see a rewiring of expectations. Keller can't dismiss the ABQ crime wave as something that is "happening everywhere" but the episodes of gun violence in the nation's cities can't be ignored in a political context. Severe crime in ABQ is not an outlier. Shootings, organized shoplifting and a fentanyl epidemic fueling the fire are commonplace in the US. The more it stays that way the more the "it's everywhere" argument may make sense to voters. On that other intransigent issue--homelessness--Keller opponents have other reasons to fret besides that freshly approved casita plan. Keller's plan to convert motel rooms to house low income residents and the long-awaited opening of the Gateway Center to serve the homeless and addicted are next up. They are also proving popular with the public even as the opposition grind their teeth at their mere mention. In addition, there has been a shift in the approach to resolving the negative impact of homelessness on the city--a Keller vulnerability (he took major hits over his proposed sanctioned homeless camp proposal). He closed Coronado Park that had become a large homeless camp and a plague on the surrounding neighborhood and he is pushing forward with his plan to reduce panhandling on the city's street medians. Also helping Keller is the tidal wave of homelessness on the West Coast. The photos and video are staggering while ABQ's problem still seems within reach of solutions. The reasons that Keller could not make it to a third term are simple--if crime is perceived as way too high and his housing program does little to reduce homelessness. But assessing the breaking point of voters on those matters is more nuanced. That's why Keller still breathes deeply the air of La Politica. E-mail your news and comments. (newsguy@yahoo.com) Interested in reaching New Mexico's most informed audience? Advertise here. (c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2023 |
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