Rebecca Dow

What's the tightest race in Election '24?

After scouring the state from Anthony to Angel Fire; berating our Senior Alligators to open their jaws and consulting an ancient spin decoding device passed on to us by original Senior Alligator Andrew Leo Lopez of the ABQ South Valley, we have the answer. 

So without further ado and accompanied by a drum roll from the Rio Grande Ravens marching band, we present "The Tightest Race in the State."

And the suspense-filled answer is state House District 38 featuring Dem state Rep. Tara Jaramillo versus Republican and former GOP state Rep. Rebecca Dow. 

How close is it? One of those operatives of the Dem variety and at the top of his party's food chain, explained it this way:

Joe, this is the race that is mostly likely to keep you going late into Election Night. The polling is incredibly close and the results might not be known until the next day. Both candidates are spending heavily and campaigning actively. It is the closest race in the state. 

We can use that fuel to keep us going when we broadcast the latest election night results and analysis on KANW radio even if it has to be a down-ballot race.

But we can already hear some of you Gators arguing that "no, the southern congressional race between Yvette Herrell and Gabe Vasquez is the closet race."

Sure, that's a potential nail-biter but that late August Emerson College poll showing Dem Rep. Vasquez nine points ahead was not made out of thin air. The poll may have been faulty but it did show a trend. 

And we repeat for the umpteenth time, half the vote in the 2nd Congressional District (under redistricting) comes from the reliably Dem counties of Dona Ana and Bernalillo.

The race is still a race and should be close. Vasquez and Herrell will both need to keep their foot on the accelerator but the gerrymander the Legislature did on this district makes this a lean Dem deal--not a toss-up. But we digress. . .

JARAMILLO VS. DOW

Rep. Jaramillo

As for Jaramillo and Dow, both are described as high quality candidates. 

Jaramillo, 55, is a speech pathologist who is a co-founder of Positive Outcomes in Socorro which provides services such as home healthcare for families who have children with disabilities (like hers).

She is seen as a moderate Dem. For example, she is against a ban on automatic firearms and voted against increasing the tax on booze (even though we prodded her to do so.)

Dow, 51, has also been involved in child care as a profession, having founded AppleTree Educational Center. She also served in the House from the old version of this district from 2017 to 2023 and if she returns to Santa Fe she could soon find herself in the GOP leadership. 

Dow, a bedrock conservative, also ran for the 2022 GOP Guv nomination, bolstering her name ID and fund-raising ability.

And look at this. The SOS reports the district of about 19,000 voters is now 40 percent Dem, 34 percent Republican and 25 percent independent with not a few of those indy's leaning toward the GOP. 

Then there's abortion which could be a runaway issue for pro-life Dow in this rural district that runs east of I-25 from Socorro to northern Las Cruces. But the pro-choice position held by Jaramillo has appeal to many non-Dem women everywhere. 

Jaramillo won in '22 by a mere 123 votes--50.7 percent to 49.3. 

The money is a real horse race with Jaramillo raising $266,000 so far and Dow $296,000. As of September 9 both had over $225,000 in cash on hand for the final weeks. 

We can only hope those Senior Gators and top operatives are right and that this race is close again no maTter who wins. After all, who wants to go home early on Election Night?  

 DUMPING PEARCE

Steve Pearce

A reader writes of our September 17 blog highlighting the dire straits the state Republican party continues to find itself in and some solutions to rebuild the party:

Joe, I’m surprised dumping GOP Chairman Steve Pearce, who’s been unable to navigate the blue skies of NM, didn’t come up in your list of things the GOP needs to do to make comeback. To a degree, Nella Domenici is prototyping a possible path by keeping her distance from Trump and making clear her position on abortion without compromising her beliefs. The fact that dumping Steve Pearce didn’t come up suggests the GOP is even deeper trouble that suggested by your list. 

Pearce, 77, will finish up his third, two year term as state GOP chair later this year. He is not expected to seek a fourth term (but he hasn't announced his decision publicly). The new chair will be selected  by members of the GOP state central committee after the November 5 election. 

This is the Home of New Mexico Politics.

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