Oh my. What could have been. Imagine this here and now it's happening right across our border:

TSMC ’s Arizona subsidiary is set to receive up to $6.6 billion in U.S. government funding under a preliminary agreement announced by the Biden administration. The funding, under the U.S. CHIPS and Science Act, will support Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co.’s more than $65 billion investment in three cutting-edge fabrication plants in Phoenix, according to the nonbinding agreement. 

While chip maker Intel in Rio Rancho is also expanding it's not the game changer state economic planners are still looking for as they seek the elusive "diversification" of the economy. But the longtime cornerstones of the economy are solid. 

--New Mexico is now the second largest producer of oil in the USA, trailing only neighboring Texas. And the bull market still has legs, with peak production still several years away.

--Los Alamos National Labs is seeing unprecedented job and budget growth as the "pit" production program for nuclear weapons gets underway and will last for years.

--It's not on the scale of Los Alamos but ABQ's Sandia National Labs is also seeing steady job and budget growth. 

--The large footprint of ABQ's Kirtland Air Force Base remains and is not threatened by federal closure but NM base watchers are keeping an eye on Cannon AFB in Clovis since restructuring there transferred over 300 personnel to Arizona.

Back on the diversification front, economic gurus are nervous about a $1 billion investment in a solar manufacturing plant announced last year by Singapore-based Maxeon Solar Technologies at ABQ's Mesa Del Sol. Maxeon's stock has since plumbed new lows. In fact it hit a new all-time low of $2.33 on Wednesday. The company is sensitive to higher interest rates and is now valued at only $150 million. 

Federal subsides, however, are key to that Maxeon ABQ invesment and a favorable announcement is expected soon.

And the stock of billionaire Richard Branson's Virgin Galactic, the chief tenant of the NM Spaceport, has also been trading at new lows as doubts continue about the viability of the company's plans to put thousands of thrill seekers paying hundreds of thousands dollars apiece to be launched into space. As with Maxeon, this company important to the state traded Wednesday at a new all-time low of only $1.04 a share. At that price the company is valued under $450 million, crashing from multi-billions in valuation. 

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Speaker Martinez

Progressives targeting high-profile conservative Democrats like Rep. Patty Lundstrom won't be getting any help from House Speaker Javier Martinez. In fact, his political arm says, Martinez and his Speaker Fund will be supporting all incumbent Democrats this primary cycle even as progressives try to enlarge their numbers by going after Lundstrom and others.

That's not shocking since the current roster of House Democrats made Martinez the Speaker. And even though he stripped Lundstrom of her powerful House Appropriations Committee chairmanship in a show of strength after she ran against him for Speaker, his punishment does not extend to vindictiveness as is often the case in La Politica.

Lundstorm from District 9 in Gallup has has two June primary opponents with Christopher Hudson endorsed by the Better Future for NM PAC run by a trio of progressive consultants. But they may want to offer an early concession. Besides having two candidates splitting the anti-Lundstrom vote, she has nearly $280,000 in cash on hand, says her latest report, while Hudson has just $2,900. The other challenger has raised no money at all. 

In fact, Lundstrom's cash beats out the progressive PAC which reports $262,000 in cash on hand but has to cover a bunch of targeted races with that money and anymore they can raise in the short time before early voting begins. 

If Lundstrom does indeed retain her seat it is critically important to state politics because Lundstrom has the force of personality and a long record of Democratic conservatism. As long as she sticks around that viewpoint will create strength and cohesion for her fellow conservative Dems even as the chamber is dominated by progressives. 

The Speaker's decision to support all incumbents--including Lundstrom--could also be critical down the road if restless progressives challenge his leadership.

Another reveal in the finance reports is the strong financial position of Speaker Martinez whose Speaker Fund reports $377,000 in cash on hand plus his personal campaign account with $76,000 in cash.

HOUSE ACTION (CONT.)

Dr. Anjali Taneja

Let's pick up where we left off yesterday and take a look at more of the state House campaign reports where there are contested primaries. 

In the race to replace longtime Dem Rep. Gail Chasey in ABQ SE Heights District 18, the four way contest quickly became a three way race with lobbyist Marianna Anaya raising $70,000 in the six month period and family medical doctor Anjali Taneja close behind with $66,000. Nurse Gloria Doherty came with $32,000. 

Anaya is the chief sex harassment accuser of Dem Sen. Daniel Ivey-Soto. Her list of contributions is a who's who of progressives including Senate President Mimi Stewart who has no love lost for Ivey-Soto. She had her committee give Anaya $5,500. Stewart has over $90,000 in her campaign account. 

Anaya reports $55,000 in cash on hand for the final weeks and Taneja $60,000. The doctor received strong support from the Indian community as well as fellow medical doctors and is positioned as the chief rival to Anaya in what has become a race to watch. Doherty reported $31,000 in cash and appeared to lean more on out of state and out of ABQ contributions than the other two. Candidate Juan Larrañaga has just $1,500 in cash on hand. No Republican is running for the seat so the primary winner takes the prize.

In District 31 in the far ABQ NE Heights, the only Bernalillo County House seat to be represented by a Republican--the retiring Rep. Bill Rehm--there is a three way primary for the GOP nomination. Nicole Chavez has the money lead with $50,000 in cash on hand but Sarah Jane Allen comes with $26,000. Chavez is the favorite but she did lose a House race to Dem Pam Herndon in District 28 two years ago. Democrats will make a serious play to win the seat in November with Vickey Estrada-Bustillo reporting $30K in cash. She is unopposed in the primary. 

In District 41 centered in Rio Arriba County, there was talk that Dem Rep. Susan Herrera, a progressive, could be in for a strong challenge from conservative Margaret Campos. But it appears that challenge is fizzling. Campos reported just $48 in her campaign coffers while Herrera came with $18,000.

There's no primary in House District 38 in Socorro and environs but the general election money battle is fully underway. Former GOP Rep. Rebecca Dow, who represented much of the district before leaving to run for Governor, reports $87,000 in cash on hand. Tara Jaramillo, who won the district in '22 in a cliff hanger, reports $67,000 in cash. This will be near the top of the races to watch come this fall.

DEM INFIGHTING (CONT.)

As New Mexico in large part has become a one party state the infighting between the moderates and progressive Dems intensifies as we are seeing in this cycle. Here's another example from moderate Dem and former Lt,. Gov. Diane Denish commenting on the progressive PACattack against ABQ NE Heights Rep. Marian Matthews:

There is absolutely no proof that progressive candidate Greg Seeley has a strong history of supporting reproductive choices (and comes no where close to Matthews’ strong support on the issue), paid family medical leave (PFML) or environmental protection. His website is focused primarily on his veterans experience, which is valuable, and his many jobs over seven years with elected reps and government agencies but that simply doesn’t translate to a “long history of support for…) any of these issues. Rep. Matthews problem is she is smart, pays attention to detail, tries to protect caregivers (which Dems wanted to eliminate in PFML) and asks tough questions that apparently can’t be answered by bill sponsors. 

Candidate Seeley, of course, is welcome to respond. 

After progressive Dem Senator Jerry Ortiz y Pino came to the defense of embattled Sen. Daniel Ivey-Soto on the blog recently the email rolled in and we're still trying to catch up. Here is reader Charity Townsend: 

In response to Senator Ortiz Y Pino’s comments last Thursday, when it comes to who stands with women and who are the reproductive health care champions we should support in the upcoming election I trust Planned Parenthood. If an incumbent has been good on their issues they will support the incumbent. But in the case of SD15 and Daniel Ivey-Soto, Planned Parenthood has proudly endorsed his opponent Heather Berghmans. 

THE BOTTOM LINES 

In the Tuesday monster blog on the campaign money reports, we omitted the name of Republican Frida Susana Vasquez from the Senate District 9 race. She had $212 in cash on hand. And when we reported on the new GOP House leadership we had the incorrect party breakdown in the House. It is currently 45 Dems, 24 Republicans and one vacancy.

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The tense race in the winner-take-all chase for the Democratic nomination for Bernalillo County District Attorney could be tight as a drum and despite being confined to only one county this potential nail-biter now leads the state for money raised in reports filed Monday with the SOS.

(All state and county candidate reports here. The period covered is October 3, 2023 – April 1, 2024.)

Sam Bregman, appointed to the DA's post by MLG to fill a vacancy, is trying to shake a decades-long losing streak since winning an ABQ City Council seat in the 90's. To do it the noted trial attorney and former state Dem Party chairman has raised a total of $410,000. He reports $319,000 cash on hand for the final weeks of Primary 2024.

Former US Attorney Damon Martinez went into his own pocket and loaned himself $170,000 to keep pace with Bregman. Martinez, who got in the race later than his opponent, raised a total of $302,000 and had $204,000 in cash on hand.

In individual contributions, Bregman reported that a property concern of Democratic oldtimer and businessman Paul Blanchard came with $5,000. Trial attorney Lisa Curtis donated $2,000. And another Lisa--but this one a Republican--gave the sometimes black-hatted Bregman $1,000. Long ago, Lisa Torraco ran for DA--that was when the GOP didn't take a walk in the contest. 

Bueno Foods, maker of popular Mexican foods, gave Martinez $2,500. Attorney Antonia Roybal Mack came with $1,000. And Martinez had his own GOP supporter. Former NM GOP Chairman Edward Lujan donated $200.

The R's have no candidate on the ballot so they might as well pick sides among the Dems. 

And how about this. Bregman and Martinez have both spent $98,000 so far. To be exact Bregman reports $98,364 in spending and Martinez $98,061. Is that a prelude to how tight this race will be Election Night? Could be and with no Republican running in November this all or nothing primary battle is going to go over the top and under the belt. We promise. . .

SENATE ACTION

Heather Balas

We enlisted the help of our Senior Alligators (longtime trusted sources) to help bring you a cascade of money report news. 

--Retiring GOP Senate leader Greg Baca reports $150,000 in cash on hand, much of which he will likely hand out to fellow GOP senators through the course of the election year. 

--In ABQ's Senate District 13, incumbent Bill O'Neill was outraised by Dem primary challenger Debbie O'Malley. She raised $60,000 and had $51,000 in cash on hand. O'Neill raised about $32,000 for the cycle and reports $27,000 cash on hand for June 4 primary. 

In what may be the hottest GOP legislative primary, Steve McCutcheon, the rancher appointed to fill a SE NM Senate vacancy by MLG, reports raising $104,000, with cash on hand of $43,000. The oil boys came through for fellow oil boy Larry Scott. The state rep going up against McCutcheon raised $203,000 and had $184,000 in cash. This one is all R all the time. The primary winner takes the prize.

In ABQ's District 15 in what is the hottest Dem Senate primary, progressive Heather Berghmans reports raising $87,000 with cash on hand of $65,000. Moderate Sen. Daniel Ivey-Soto reported $128,000 cash on hand but $111,000 of it was raised before October 2023.. This seat is a top target of the progressives and their PAC(s) are targeting Ivey-Soto but a surprise endorsement of Ivey-Soto from progressive Sen. Jerry Ortiz y Pino has been a booster shot for the incumbent.

In District 30 state senate action, former state Senator Clemente Sanchez is trying to get back to the Senate to represent the Grants area and environs. He had money left over from his last campaign outing when he lost the seat and reports $137,000 in cash on hand. His opponent, Angel Charly, a progressive fave challenging the conservative Sanchez, reports raising $50,000 with $35,000 in cash on hand. The state's leading progressive PAC is expected to supplement Charly with outside spending.

In Senate District 9 on ABQ's westside and Corrales and Placitas, public policy expert Heather Balas and Cindy Nava are battling for the Dem nomination for a seat being vacated by Dem Brenda McKenna. Balas reports cash on hand of $51,253; Nava cash is at $28,610. Balas is the moderate and Nava the progresssive so the Balas money muscle is perking up the moderates' hopes. The winner of the primary will face either Republican Audrey Trujillo, who reports $21,600 in cash, or Frida Susana Vasquez who had $212 in cash on hand. 

In the GOP state senate primary in District 21 in the NE Heights, the last ABQ Senate district represented by a Republican, Nicole Tobiassen reported raising $38,000 in the latest reporting period and $52,000 in cash on hand. Former GOP state Senator Michael Wiener reported $46,000 in cash on hand. Most of his donations came from the Wiener Family Trust which came with $50,000 in loans and he loaned himself $10,000. Candidate Craig Morton reported just $2,000 in cash on hand.

HOUSE ACTION 

Rep. Matthews

In ABQ House District 27 Rep. Marian Matthews has been targeted by progressives who have fielded Greg Seeley against her in the Dem primary. But Matthews, an attorney, is off to a solid fund-raising start, reporting cash in hand of $118,000 versus just $10,600 for Seeley. 

Up north in House District 70 in the Las Vegas area, it's another rematch between Rep. Ambrose Castellano and Anita Gonzales. He won the first two by minuscule margins. Gonzales reports $26,000 in cash on hand and Castellano reports a cash kitty of $63,000. Looks like this one will again keep Las Vegas up late on Election Night. 

The progressive PAC Better Future for NM that is heavy into the legislative contests reported cash on hand of $263,000 and spent $76,000 in the reporting period.

More on the money races as the week continues. For now thanks for joining us and remember. . .

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Rep. Alan Martinez

For a minute it appeared that state House GOP members might hew to the middle and choose Rep. Gail Armstrong as their new House Minority Leader. Instead there was a swing to the hard right and former House Minority Whip Rod Montoya of Farmington defeated Armstrong to become the new leader. Armstrong retains her role as Caucus Chair. Freshman Rep. Alan Martinez of Rio Rancho (District 23) is the new Minority Whip.

It's a return to power for Montoya, who served as the minority whip when he and House Minority Leader Jim Townsend left leadership following the poor GOP election results in 2022. But the GOP members turned back to Montoya, 57, a scrappy, confrontational lawmaker from Farmington who will now front the election year effort for the House GOP, including critical fundraising.

The House R's are overpowered by a Dem majority (45-24) that is not expected to change substantially with this year's election.

Rep. Martinez, a retired career employee of the state veterans department, and Rep. Armstrong, a rancher and business owner, are seen as more moderate members of the caucus. 

The House Dem dominance has led to a topsy-turvy pattern in GOP leadership. Townsend departed to run for the Senate and Minority Leader Ryan Lane of Farmington resigned not only from leadership but also from his legislative seat. 

Lane tried to work collaboratively at times with the Dems but lacking experience and with the Trumpers breathing down his neck, he got lost in the maze of Roundhouse politics. 

Supporters of Montoya, a real estate broker who has been in the House since 2015, like his backbone. Critics dismiss him as ineffective and abrasive. 

While serving as minority whip Montoya tussled with House Speaker Egolf. Now he will have a new foil in Speaker Javier Martinez.

WHERE GOP STANDS

Rep. Montoya

The House Republicans only register a heartbeat when they are able to form a coalition with conservative House Dems to defeat progressive legislation as they did this last session with the family medical leave act. Otherwise they suffer from a diminished relevance that has depleted their ranks of political heavyweights.

The House GOP put this spin on their new leadership: 

Representative Montoya, known for his powerful conservative message and bold presence on the House Floor, vows to take his vision directly to New Mexicans and focus on policies that promote education choice, job growth, safe communities, and affordable and reliable energy. Representative Martinez, as the new Whip, complements this vision with his commitment to public service and government accountability. His track record of working with diverse stakeholders is expected to be instrumental in advancing the Republican Caucus’s priorities. Representative Armstrong looks forward to using lessons she has learned across 30 years of business ownership to strengthen the Caucus.

The bottom line is that the GOP in the state House and the state at large is deeply isolated--almost historically so--but is still determined to rebuild by waiting for the Democrats to trip over themselves rather than redefine their party.

The waiting game has paid off in the past but since then the GOP and its positions on social issues has made it an anathema in a Democratic state, urgently needing a refocused party that can again attract moderate Dems and independents,.

That may happen when the Trump era ends but for now New Mexican politics is like an intramural contest between the progressive Dems and conservative Dems with the GOP House occasionally being called off the bench to participate.

Speaking of which. . . 

DEM PRIMARY INFIGHTING

A fiery rebuke of a progressive PAC attack on ABQ moderate Dem Sen. Daniel Ivey-Soto by progressive ABQ Sen. Jerry Ortiz y Pino has the PAC firing back.

The trio of  Dem consultants whose Better Future for NM PAC is seeking to defeat Ivey-Soto in the June Dem primary with challenger Heather Berghmans, sent out a fund-raising letter that the blog published last week and that revealed the well-financed PAC's conservative Dem primary targets.

Here's Amanda Cooper and company of the Better Future NM progressive PAC doubling down on their Ivey-Soto hits in the wake of Ortiz y Pino's defense:

In response to your blog published on April 4th, history cannot be rewritten once it has been documented. You don’t have to search for long to find when Sen. Ivey-Soto refused to support access to abortion care after the fall of Roe or to pinpoint his history of obstruction, for example to paid sick leave. Taking the right vote during an election year does not erase history, but let’s not lose sight of the elephant in the room: multiple credible accounts of harassment in the Roundhouse. Let’s not forget that the report by the independent special counsel (hired by legislators) found "credible evidence" in harassment allegations against Sen. Ivey-Soto. The ethics and accountability system at the Roundhouse is broken, but the voters have the opportunity to help make an unsafe space safer by voting for a change on June 4.  

Former Dem State Rep and attorney Daymon Ely, who was a key player in ethics rules and legislation, came with this:

Your readers should know that the process used to investigate Sen. Ivey-Soto was broken, making it impossible to hold legislators accountable. Senator Ivey-Soto was investigated by a well-respected attorney. He concluded that there was probable cause to the claims of sexual harassment. However, because of a flaw in our rules, the Senate was allowed to stop the prosecution in its tracks by the interim ethics committee reaching a tie vote of 2-2. This had two consequences: (1) the process could not move forward; and (2) the Senator could (and did) proclaim his innocence while, at the same time, the complainant was gagged from talking to anyone. As a legislator, I worked to change the rule on the possibility of a tie. And, in the following session, the Majority Whip, Reena Szczepanski, removed the gag provision. No one should confuse the conclusion of that process as a vindication for Sen. Ivey-Soto. 

The voters' decision on Ivey-Soto comes down to a political assessment, not a legal conclusion because  as Ely said none has been rendered--an opinion from the solo investigator is not a conclusion and as  stated no prosecution is contemplated. 

CONSERVATIVE DEMS SPEAK

Campos

Margaret Campos, seeking to unseat progressive Dem Rep. Susan Herrera in District 41 centered in Rio Arriba County, also hit back against the progressive attack against her that claimed she is "well-funded by oil and gas and other special interests."

Campos pointed to a $5,500 campaign contribution to Herrera from Chevron lobbyist Partick Killen. She notes that Herrera lists Killen's employment as a "lobbying organization" failing to mention Chevron. 

That could be an effective hit. A fallacy of state politics is that the oil boys are all Republican all the time. Not so. They have given to virtually all members of the Legislature. No one is turning down that money. 

Progressives can pretend otherwise but big oil has a seat at all the tables in Santa Fe and Campos' hit on Herrera proves the point.

Marsella Duarte, a conservative Dem is running against Rep. Yanira Gurrola in the House District 16 Dem primary on ABQ's westside. The progressive PAC said in their fundraising letter that "Duarte was  recruited and is supported by high-profile corporate lobbyists." Duarte responds:

When did it become wrong to be labeled a conservative and right to be to be known as a progressive? I am neither. Pundits would have the voters in my district believe that I am a one-dimensional candidate with a limited thought process. . .That could not be further from the truth. It’s a polished lie. I will listen to everyone whose agenda is to improve my west side community. My campaign is fueled by a lifetime living in my District. I will represent it with dignity and gratitude. I know what life can be like when all hope is lost. And I know the joy when hope is regained. Conservative or not, my vote is my vote. I was not hand-picked by a group whose goal is to lead a legislator around by the nose.

MONEY WATCH

GOP US Senate candidate Nella Domenici reports that from mid-January when she announced her candidacy through the end of March her campaign has raised $1.25 million. However, that includes $500,000 the wealthy hopeful contributed to her own coffers. Aside from that she raised $750,000. 

Dem Senator Martin Heinrich has not done an early release of his first quarter fund-raising numbers which are due at the FEC April 15. At last count in October he had $3.5 million in cash on hand. 

Domenici has healthy initial fund-raising but without firmer signs she is a real threat she may have to rely even more on her personal funds to keep pace with the two term Senator. She has the money. The question could be if she has the desire to dig deeper into her bank account which will be answered in due time.

Her campaign comes with this spin:

Despite only being in the race for just over two months, the campaign received donations from more than 1,100 individuals. Nella's total is significantly larger than any GOP U.S. Senate candidate raised in New Mexico in the first quarter of an election year. The previous record for a Republican was set in 2012 with $760,000.

But if you don't count the personal funds Domenici has contributed, she falls $10,000 short of that 2012 record. 

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