You Know Who

Emerging buoyantly after the debate, Harris’ aides and surrogates came bearing a clear message: They wanted another face off in October. “Bring it on!” said New Mexico Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham, a Democrat. “She should do a second debate.”

Our Governor was among the official spinners for VP Harris at Tuesday night's debate which makes for more chatter about her being on the list for a plum position in a Harris administration--should it come to pass.

Her role at the Philadelphia debate was more than honorific. Spinners are assigned to media from all over the map and they have to know their stuff and be articulate. Even her critics admit that this Governor--unlike her predecessor--is fearless when it comes to the national spotlight and media. For her an appearance on Face the Nation is as routine as brushing her teeth. And that's a plus for little 'ol New Mexico.

As pictured, the Governor fueled up on an iconic Philly cheesesteak sandwich before fulfilling her task of praising Harris and dumping on Trump.

Her appetite for political success is equal to her zest for that cheesesteak. She's been elected Bernalillo county commissioner, a US congresswoman and two two terms as Governor. But she seems determined to fill out that impressive resume with something--who knows what--in DC. 

Her pick as a Harris spinner all but shuts the door on speculation that the VP's camp would leave MLG at the altar as she was by the Biden administration when she came squeaky close to getting a cabinet post. 

But her future depends on Harris winning. That means you'll see the Guv chowing down on all kinds of local delicacies offered in the battleground states while the green chile stash in the Mansion freezer remains mostly untouched until after November 5. 

SAFE. . .BUT

Checking in with University of Virginia pundit Larry Sabato, we find him ranking the Heinrich-Domenici senate battle as still "safe" for Heinrich but with a small caveat:

Sen. Heinrich has been running aggressively against Nella Domenici, daughter of the late former Sen. Pete Domenici, suggesting he is taking her challenge seriously in a blue-leaning state. This race seemed to come on the board a bit at the tail end of the slump that would eventually drive President Biden from the presidential race, and the general belief among sources we talked to is that this race might have become highly competitive if Biden had stayed in and the overall Democratic position had not improved. We’re watching it more closely than your average Safe Democratic race, but it remains in that category. 

Heinrich

While Sabato and other pundits believe Heinrich is good for a third term, Sabato predicts the Republicans will take over the Senate majority this year. That would be bad news for Heinrich who might have a good shot at the chairmanship of the Energy Committee if the Dems could hold on to the majority.

Staying with the Senate contest, we get this from Las Cruces blogger Peter Goodman:

I don't watch much TV but do look at internet news and more than any commercial I see a Domenici commercial on women and abortion. She aims to convince voters that NM abortion laws are safe and that she's thoroughly comfortable with that and has no interest in doing anything that would affect that. So she's sure pushing the abortion defense point a lot. 

Jim Hannan writes:

 Hi Joe, I thought that it was interesting that in the most recent Time Magazine story on the 100 most influential people in artificial intelligence, the only politician in the list is Martin Heinrich. Here's a link to the list and here's the blurb on Heinrich.

Heinrich, an engineer, founded the AI Caucus in 2019.

Reproductive rights appears to be the major issue that is keeping Nella from breaking into big BernCo.

Joe, I wanted to say thanks for your blog. It has been incredibly valuable over the years, keep up the good work. Second, I wanted to say I found the analysis/commentary about the presidential debate by your conservative/GOP commentators to be incredibly lacking and caricature-like. It would have been more helpful to an independent like me to understand their positions. Instead they seem to repeat the same talking points as Trump and the logic just goes around and around,with no progress. Thanks again, Benjamin V. Guevara, JD 

Thanks for tuning in over the years, Ben. We remain committed to exploring all kinds of viewpoints.

HELP THE JOURNAL

Sanderoff

Longtime reader John G. gives us a smile. 

He was disappointed to learn on the Wednesday blog that the ABQ Journal and pollster Brian Sanderoff will not be polling the heated race for the southern congressional district featuring Dem US Rep.  Gabe Vasquez and Republican Yvette Herrell in their first round of polling that is expected to be rolled out this Sunday. They do, however, plan a late October survey on the three congressional races. Opines John G:

Joe, ask Brian Sanderoff how much it would cost to do a poll only of the 2nd Congressional District to see where the race between Vasquez and Herrell is. No other questions other than those needed for this one important race. Then post that dollar figure on the blog for a GoFundMe style call to to action. Count me in for $50. 

Fifty bucks? That's pretty generous, John. I might buy the ink-stained wretches a couple of lunches if they would break open the bank for the poll. We'll have to ask Brian if he's offering any discounts.  

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It was an often unruly and arguably a somewhat unproductive 90 minute plus presidential debate last night but it did check off just about evey major issue facing the electorate. In short, there is no need for any more debates. 

Vasquez and MLG

How important is abortion to Democratic hopes in New Mexico this fall? So important that even Rep. Gabe Vasquez shed his usual caution and showed up for the groundbreaking of a new $10 million reproductive health center in Las Cruces hosted by Gov. Lujan Grisham, one of the nation's leading pro-choice advocates.

Vasquez is the same congressman who has fled the scene whenever President Biden comes anywhere near the state line, fearing that Biden's liberal credentials (and unpopularity) in the southern district would rub off on him.

But what a difference the Supreme Court's rebuke of Roe V. Wade has made. 

In 2022 Vasquez struggled to overcome GOP US Rep. Yvette Herrell, managing just a 1,350 vote win and setting up another tense rematch this year. The Supreme Court ruling came in June 2022 but by then Herrell had already excelled in adorning Vasquez with high negatives.

But that ruling has grown legs. It has supercharged women voters here and around the nation and turnout will be higher in a presidential year than it was in '22. That is especially impactful in districts like Vasquez's where just a slight bump in Dem enthusiasm could be enough to keep him in the winner's circle. 

And the issue is cutting across party lines with many Republican women expressing pro-choice views, making it even safer for Vasquez to be less circumspect in publicly embracing MLG and absorbing the predictable arrows from the GOP that his abortion position, like MLG's, is "extreme."

That Emerson College poll showing Vasquez beating Herrell by nearly ten points is likely an outlier, taken during the hubbub of the national Dem convention, but it does represent the worst case scenario for the GOP.

Their plan to take Vasquez out by forcing immigration, inflation and crime to the top of voters concerns is still alive and Democrats still have to get the vote out.

Still, the true lean of the district under redistricting is Democratic and enthusiasm among Dem women in Las Cruces and ABQ's South Valley, which make up more than half the vote, would be potentially deadly to any Republican.

VASQUEZ AS WEAK

We've perceived Vasquez as a somewhat weak candidate--a perception not unshared by observers we consider astute, but political operative Jake McCook thinks that's too tough on the freshman lawmaker: 

Come on, Joe! Vasquez a “weak candidate with an unsettled past to exploit." Are you sure you weren’t talking about Yvette Herrell? How many times must New Mexico Republicans lose for La Politica to give any serious credit where credit is due? While Herrell has been holding fundraisers behind closed doors, Gabe can be seen across the district meeting with people and bringing their concerns straight to Washington. She won’t even meet with the downwinders to tell them straight to their faces why she won’t push House Speaker Johnson to pass the bipartisan RECA bill. Maybe the 10 point lead (in the Emerson poll) is a validation of Gabe’s hard work, and Herrell’s lazy approach to letting the NRCC do her bidding? 

We're not sure we agree with all of that heartfelt rant but long ago our journalism professors insisted that we give equal time. So there it is. . .

We will say this: If Vasquez wins this race, the 2nd Congressional District will very likely drop off the list of swing districts in 2024, giving him breathing room to be more of the liberal on abortion and other issues that he truly is--and in the process looking and being more genuine.  

SENATE AND ABORTION

Domenici

A similar story is starting to play out in the race for US Senate. When the newspaper offered Sen. Heinrich and Republican Nella Domenici space to make their campaign pitches, Heinrich went all-in on abortion rights and Nella stuck with fentanyl and crime. 

She made a splash when she demanded via a cease and desist letter that Heinrich's campaign drop a TV ad that infers she is in favor of a national ban on abortion when she has repeatedly rejected that position. But Heinrich, pushing the envelope, wrote in his column that he is not backing away from that controversial attack: 

The same forces that led to Roe’s demise are backing Nella Domenici, hoping to finish the job. They’ve handpicked her to secure the majority they need to impose their extreme agenda and ban abortion nationwide, including here in New Mexico. They are bankrolling her campaign, flooding the airwaves with deceptive ads, trying to trick voters into believing she’s something that she’s not. 

That is Heinrich, who has been consistent as they come on abortion, putting up a fence around Bernalillo county, the state's largest and a county that has been voting overwhelmingly Democratic for several cycles. That abortion is his centerpiece shows how well the issue is polling in the cities for the D's. 

CRACKING THE CODE

The Domenici camp has known from the start that cracking big BernCo is the key to an upset. But she is left with the crime scourge to move the numbers. For a variety of reasons--some of them perplexing--that issue has not animated the electorate here as much as might be expected in a town riddled with constant crime. The big tell was the easy re-election of Mayor Keller in 2021 and his so far uninterrupted march toward another victory in 2025. 

Maybe all that changes. Nella was strong when she took on the crime crisis directly, planting herself in the crime-ridden SE Heights with APD and absorbing and reporting frankly on the dismal scenes she encountered, filled with the heartbreak and trauma that crime has inflicted on the city. In her column she said:

To the chagrin of Domenici's supporters, this New Mexico election appears to be increasingly nationalized for the majority Democrats with reproductive rights again soaring in importance leaving crime, the economy and immigration if not in the dust, at least five or six lengths behind.

This is the Home of New Mexico Politics.     

Today's court deadline requiring the New Mexico Project to report to the state who gives the PAC money and how they spend it will come and go without any compliance as the group appeals the decision to a higher court. 

That's the word from businessman and politico Jeff Apodaca who tells NM Politics with Joe Monahan that the Project, whose aim is to oppose progressive interests and increase Hispanic influence in elections, will appeal the ruling by District Judge Joshua Allison to the NM Court of Appeals and if necessary to the state Supreme Court. 

We asked the State Ethics Commission (who brought the lawsuit) to testify at the court hearing because we have evidence that they are not following up with progressive PACS that have not registered or filed with the state. But we never got the chance to show that evidence. We're just following what's permitted under IRS regulations. We're a  501 (c) (4). They did not prove that we spent any money on ads promoting specific candidates. We are educating Latino voters on issues important to us and we have the right to say what candidates support our issues. Our donors have nothing to hide but the progressives have a history of attacking donors or companies that don't support their candidates so we want to keep them private.

Judge Allison said in his late August ruling in favor of the Ethics Commission that the Project must register with the state as a political committee and report their donations.

Failure to do so ... frustrates the purpose of the Campaign Reporting Act: to shine light on those who seek to influence our elections. . . The people have a right to know who is paying for TNMP’s political advertisements before they cast their ballots. 

(The full order is here. The Ethics Commission's full motion for the order is here.)

The Project is asking that enforcement of the court's order be stayed as they file their appeal. Apodaca said they want the judge to allow the PAC to call witnesses, including himself, to show evidence they have done nothing wrong, saying the judge did not allow any witnesses at the original hearing.

The Project spent money on ads during the primary election and Apodaca says the group plans to be active in educating voters in the general election but the court ruling has hurt fund-raising. 

We have lost some of our donors because of the damage to our reputation. We plan on being involved (in the November election) as long as the courts don't shut us down but we have to raise additional funds. . . That was the progressive intent all along--to hurt us financially.

Asked about  an April statement he made here that the Project had raised "close to" $1 million. Apodaca now says that number was "what we hope" to raise.

It's been confirmed that the group has received money from real estate interests and our sources inform that oil and gas interests have also been donors but the total amount raised remains unknown.

When forming the PAC earlier this year, Apodaca told us:

Progressives have been attacking Latinos and electing candidates in the last three elections that do not reflect our communities. I give them credit for getting their vote out but their policies have caused more crime, fewer job opportunities and a failure to deliver on healthcare. They are attacking our Latino candidacies, culture and legacy and it's time for us to respond by getting our vote out not just in presidential elections but all elections.   

ANALYSIS AND CONTEXT 

The dominance of progressives in the state's political dialogue has been on the upswing since 2020 but the sticky issues of crime, homelessness and job opportunities remain prominent.

Some of these issues gave rise to a backlash against progressive politicians on the West Coast, such as California Gov. Gavin Newsom, who has moved to a more conservative approach.

New Mexico has seen the same with its Democratic Governor when it comes to crime but progressives have been reluctant to follow her lead. 

The question now is will the progressive hold remain firm or is the Apodaca pushback the start of a move to the center.

This is the Home of New Mexico Politics.