Trump in ABQ (Moore, Journal)

Former President Donald Trump made a concerted bid for the state's Hispanic vote Thursday afternoon as he roused a crowd of several thousand at an ABQ rally, declaring, "I love Hispanics! The crowd, gathered on a tarmac at CSI Aviation near the Sunport, roared their approval. 

Trump declared: 

I’m here for one very simple reason. I like you very much, and it’s good for my credentials with the Hispanic or Latino community. New Mexico, look, don’t make me waste a whole damn half a day here,” he continued. “You know, we could be nice to each other, or we can talk turkey. Let’s talk turkey. I love the Hispanics. I love them. I love Hispanics. 

He also said that Hispanics are “entrepreneurial as hell and work their asses off.”

Trump, coming off of an embarrassing Sunday rally in New York where Puerto Ricans and Hispanics were disparaged by guest speakers, had rally goers take a poll on whether Hispanics preferred being called Latino. Hispanics won big with a round of applause and cheering.

The former president's speech, as usual for these events, went for nearly 90 minutes. He repeatedly cited problems at the border as a chief reason for New Mexicans to vote for him even as he overstated the problems the state is having by claiming that our border issues are worse than any other state. 

Trump is far behind VP Harris in the New Mexico polling and we are no longer a swing state but a person associated with the campaign said:  

With the former president folding the stops into respective trips to the swing states of Nevada and Arizona on Friday, and to North Carolina on Saturday, it “doesn’t cost a lot” to land the plane in New Mexico and Virginia, said a person familiar with the campaign’s strategy, granted anonymity to speak openly about the visitDoing so will offer an “adrenaline blast” to Trump supporters in those states, while creating at least a day’s worth of news there right before ballots are cast Tuesday.

GOP consultant Bob Cornelius said the visit "could help Trump turn out votes in southern areas of the state." 

Towards the end of his talk Trump gave a shout-out to GOP US Senate hopeful Nella Domenici, congressional candidate Yvette Herrell, former Governor Susana Martinez as well as NMGOP Chairman Steve Pearce.  

This is the Home of New Mexico Politics.       

What's that New Mexico Democrats? You say you're not getting Halloween shivers up and down your spines from this imposing picture of Trump even though he's only hours away from touching down for his noon ABQ rally?

Well, you're a brave bunch but we bet a few D's watching a certain congressional race are feeling the fear today. 

As for the NMGOP, they're trying to scare their opponents by going door-to-door disguised as pro-Trump political analysts and asking that votes be placed in their trick or treat bags. 

It turns out it's mostly a trick. 

Let's take a look at what the NMGOP is saying at voters' doorsteps:

New Mexico has been trending red in recent polling, leading to pollsters now labeling the state a toss-up. 

No, it has not been trending red. The polls have VP Harris beating Trump here 50 to 41 percent. No high-quality surveys show the race to be anywhere near being a toss-up.

The GOP:

Between Trump gaining strong support from Hispanic voters and the top issues for New Mexicans being the economy and the border, New Mexico is now positioned as a key battleground state. 

Some of that is true. Trump is polling near historic highs here among Hispanics, garnering 41 percent support in the Journal survey. If he hits that mark next Tuesday with Hispanic voters it would apparently be a modern day record for a GOP prez hopeful. And the economy and border are big issues for the overall electorate. However, we are currently not and have not been a "battleground state" since 2008. 

More GOP fright for the Dems:

President Trump is neck and neck with Harris in our state. His visit could ignite the spark needed to motivate our voters to hit the polls to flip New Mexico red. 

Again there is no good evidence at all that the race here is neck and neck. However Trump's visit could "ignite" some support for GOP southern congressional district candidate Yvette Herrell who needs more votes in ABQ's South Valley and Westside if she is to upset Dem US Rep. Gabe Vasquez. 

Finally, in the spirit of Halloween and one last try to scare the dickens out of the Harris backers, here's a final, unfiltered point from the R's:

New Mexicans are not happy with the state of the economy and the open border, and Kamala Harris represents more of the same failed policies. . . President Trump. . . wants to eliminate taxes on Social Security, tipped wages, and overtime. He will usher in true American energy independence, lowering gas prices and bringing down inflation. He will safeguard our daughters’ opportunities by ensuring they are not forced to compete against men and have men in their locker rooms.

So that's the big Boo! from the GOP to the Dems today. 

(Hey, is that MLG shaking like a leaf over there?)

THE VISIT 

The kerfuffle over parking for the Trump visit that took place between the GOP and the State Land Office has been resolved and the rally is on. Details for those going today:

Parking will be available in multiple locations off-site from the venue with shuttles providing transportation to the venue. Uber, Lyft, and ride-share services are encouraged. Ride-share drop-off location is at 2327 Clark Carr Road SE.

Parking locations: a private lot at 5441 Turing Drive SE; a lot near the Albuquerque International Sunport at 1501 Aircraft Ave. SE; and a lot at Montage at Mesa del Sol, 2702 Stryker Road SE. 

Parking will open at 5:00 a.m. Shuttles begin operating at 5:30 a.m. and doors at the event venue, CSI Aviation, open at 8 a.m. Event programming will begin promptly at 10 a.m., and remarks will begin at noon.

We'll update the blog this afternoon following Trump's ABQ speech.

JERRY SANDEL 

We've received word of the death of Jerry Sandel, a conservative Democrat from the Farmington area who became a state capitol powerhouse during his 30 years in office from 1971 to 2000. 

Sandel made a fortune in the oil and gas business and was known for his financial acumen during his time in Santa Fe. Details of his passing were not immediately available. 

Sandel was 82.

OUR ELECTION COVERAGE

It's almost time for our special election coverage on public radio KANW 89.1 FM and kanw.com. 

We're as excited to get going as we were when we started the tradition for the station back in 1988 and even when we did our very first radio election night coverage in 1974. Yikes!

We're back with our live pre-game show this year and that will tip off at 5 p.m. Monday with top experts like Dem state Rep. Day Hochman-Vigil and veteran ABQ Journal capitol reporter Dan Boyd and others. 

Then it's on to Election Night with a 6:30 p.m. start for live, continuous coverage all night long. Among the experts at our table will be longtime Republican consultant Jamie Estrada who is on those legislative races like white on rice.

We'll have more details of our coverage next week.

KANW is once again where it's at for the inside story of Election Night with up to the minute results, the best expert analysis and the most fun. As always, we invite you to join us and thank you for doing so.

This is the Home of New Mexico Politics.       

If turnout is similar to that of 2020 then nearly half the votes that will be cast in Election '24 are in the bank. 

The SOS reports that through Monday 444,521 New Mexicans have made their voices heard by voting absentee or at early voting locations. 

If the vote total for this year's presidential race matches the roughly 924,000 who turned out for the 2020 contest then 48 percent of the total vote is already in. 

Early voting continues to grow in popularity although it is not expected to match the early turnout of 2020 which was inflated by the Covid outbreak. 

Still, most votes will be cast before the actual election day of November 5 signifying voter comfort with the option as well as the efficiency implementing it by Secretary of State Toulouse Oliver and Bernalillo County Clerk Linda Stover and her colleagues across the state.   

The partisan lean in the early ballots is 48 percent Democratic, 37 Republican and 15 percent independents and others. That's in line with recent patterns and signals that races where large polling leads are evident are not going to turn into upsets.

Those include the presidential contest going to VP Harris, Sen. Heinrich winning re-election as well as US Reps. Stansbury and Leger Fernandez.

The race between Dem Rep. Gabe Vasquez and Republican Yvette Herrell remains a lean Democratic contest but still with the possibility of an upset. Dem consultant Sisto Abeyta explains:

Joe, Herrell's last stand is precincts in the South Valley of ABQ and westside. She needs to get close to Gabe there--tie him or come within a couple of points--or else the race is his. We will be able to tell from the early vote results in Bernalillo county whether this race takes us through the night or is put to bed early.

Those Dem-leaning BernCo precincts make up about 25 percent of the total vote in the 2nd District. Another 25 percent come from Dem dominated Dona Ana county where Vasquez served as a Las Cruces city councilor. 

TRUMP HERE TOMORROW

Maybe the Halloween Trump visit will help Herrell pop the turnout in BernCo? But disparaging comments made about Puerto Rico and Hispanics by a comedian at Trump's Sunday Madison Square Garden rally raised questions about his Hispanic support going forward.

Trump will rally the faithful at a noon rally tomorrow. ABQ airport officials say

The Albuquerque International Sunport received confirmation from the Republican Party of New Mexico that former President Trump will be holding a rally at CSI Aviation, a Fixed Based Operator (FBO) located south of the main terminal. Please note: The event will not be held at the Sunport’s main terminal. The Sunport anticipates no impacts to commercial flight operations for this event. . . The Isleta Amphitheatre, located at 5601 University Blvd SE, will be providing shuttles from their parking lot to CSI Aviation. 

CSI is owned by former NM GOP Chairman Allen Weh, a major GOP donor, and a longtime contractor for the federal government. 

DEM TRUMP REACT

State Dems are letting loose with the vitriol over the Trump visit to Blue New Mexico. MLG fires this volley:

I'm disappointed that Donald Trump is bringing his cruel, racist schtick to New Mexico — home to the nation's largest percentage of Hispanic residents — just days after his buddy called our Puerto Rican brothers and sisters 'garbage' at a campaign rally in New York. . .

Trump has said he did not know the comedian who made the remarks about Puerto Rico. (MLG stands to get a new job if VP Harris is elected.)

State Dems brought GOP US Senate candidate Nella Domenici into the fray:

After months of dodging questions, Nella Domenici has finally made her alliance clear: she will stand beside former President and convicted felon Donald Trump at his rally in Albuquerque this Thursday. Nella’s journey from self-proclaimed “moderate” and “independent thinker” to MAGA devotee has been swift and decisive. For a candidate who once publicly insisted she would not endorse Trump or seek his approval, her sharp right turn raises important questions about where she truly stands. 

Do you get the sense that the Dems are trying to run up the score against Nella? They already have her on the canvas, but with Heinrich still eyeing a possible '26 Guv run the plan appears to be to try to beat her by 10 points or more. 

Heinrich's high mark in a Senate election is 54 percent. The base GOP vote is 45 percent but Domenici just recently moved to 40 percent in the latest polling.

CONVENTION CENTER, REALLY?

2016 ABQ Trump Rally (NYT)

What can we add to the dispute over whether the Trump campaign was seriously interested in renting the ABQ Convention Center for their rally tomorrow but the city said it wasn't available because of a water line repair in progress?

Well, after a near riot at the 2016 Trump ABQ Convention Center rally (which yours truly walked home from through smoke-filled air) was this really a serious inquiry? A security nightmare again? 

And, considering Trump is on a tight schedule to get to Nevada following his ABQ stop were they really thinking about hauling him downtown and back?  Or were they routinely checking a variety of possible rally locations as they do as a matter of course?

Anyway, GOP Councilor Dan Lewis can call off the dogs he sicced on Dem Mayor Keller over the bizarre flap and the Mayor can give up on trying to collect money he says the city is owed by the Trump campaign for a past visit. They've said enough.

By the way, we reported a number of months ago that Lewis had told us he will not seek the mayor's office next year when Keller seeks a third term. Lewis lost to Keller in the '17 mayoral contest.

SAME DAY VOTING

A new twist in state elections is the ability to register to vote and cast your ballot on the same day. Common Cause reports it's an option that is being taken advantage of:

You can now register and vote on the same day during the early voting period or on election day. Previously, voter registration ended weeks before the election and if you weren’t registered you were out of luck. In the current election, 9,280 New Mexicans have utilized this option as of Monday Oct. 28

TWO DOCS

There are two medical doctors in the state legislature--not only one as we first blogged Tuesday. Republican Senator Greg Shcmedes, a doctor, is still in the Senate although he is not seeking re-election to his East Mountain ABQ area seat and will depart in January. If ABQ Dem Senator Martin Hickey, the focus of our Tuesday report, is re-elected he will be the sole MD in the Legislature. Still no doctor in the House, though.

Be sure to join us for our traditional Election Night coverage on public radio KANW 89.1 FM  and kanw.com starting at 6:30 p.m. Tuesday and for our pre-game show Monday, November 4 at 5 p.m. 

Reporting from Albuquerque, I'm Joe Monahan.

This is the Home of New Mexico Politics.       

There's no doctors in the House but there are two in the state Senate and one of them is working to come up with just the right prescription to fend off an unexpectedly strong challenge from his Republican opponent. 

Dr. Martin Hickey is seeking a second four year term from Senate District 20 in ABQ's far NE Heights. 

Republican engineer Wayne Yevoli is his foe, running on an anti-crime platform and with the help of an outside PAC calling Hickey a "phony" and a friend of "Big Pharma."

One of their mailers declares:  

Martin Hickey claims to be a doctor in slick TV ads and mailers. In reality, he has spent the last thirty years as a hospital and insurance executive. 

Hickey's campaign answers that Yevoli is an anti-abortion zealot and an unabashed backer of MAGA.

The race popped up on the radar when recent insider polling showed Hickey below 50 percent---getting 48 to Yevoli's 43. 

That conceivably puts the race in play with Hickey still having a clear edge, but it was only four years ago that Hickey took over the seat from longtime GOP Senator Bill Payne.

An ace in the hole for Hickey, a former CEO and Chief Medical Officer for Lovelace Health Systems, is the Democratic performance of the district which is 53 percent. 

Hickey is working furiously to bring himself up to that level, repeatedly mailing the district and cutting a digital TV ad touting his 46 years as a medical doctor. 

The other medial doctor in the Senate is Republican Greg Schmedes who is not seeking re-election. 

ATTACK PAC

The most strident attacks on Hickey are coming from the Our Values PAC financed mainly by oil money, including oil giant Chevron and longtime GOP activist and Roswell oil magnate Mark Murphy. 

They cite Senate Bill 135 in particular as a reason for dumping the doctor. The measure passed the Senate 38-2 and was signed by the Governor. Hickey and GOP Senator Mark Moores were the two no votes:  

SB 135 would ensure doctors can ask health insurers to cover medications without the patient having to first try a cheaper version, a strategy insurers use to save money called “step therapy.” The bill adds medications approved for treating substance use disorder, autoimmune disorders, behavioral health conditions and cancer to the list of drugs that cannot be subject to step therapy or prior authorization requirements. . .Hickey said he supported the bill but it could lead to more complications and drug-to-drug interactions. 

Thus the nickname "Heartless Hickey" coined by the PAC. 

Yevoli's baggage appears limited but with abortion and MAGA the Dems don't need a smoking gun.

Also, the ABQ Journal, very often Republican in their editorial endorsements, failed to endorse Yevoli and gave the nod to Hickey. 

Yevoli's background:

I am a Professional Engineer and own a small engineering firm in Albuquerque. I have over thirty-seven years of engineering and design experience, including design from conception through construction document preparation and observation My specific areas of expertise include heating and cooling systems.

Yevoli, who bills himself as a "political outsider," is a good fit for Republicans and independents in the district who are still settling in with Democrat Hickey.  

His fate in large part will depend on enthusiasm for Trump and Dems getting the blue flu and refusing the doctor's orders by not voting because of those negative hits.

The Dems are not taking any chances. The money race in the district has Hickey raising $272,000 (including a $24,000 personal loan) and Yevoli $115,000. But the Republican is getting that PAC support to help make up the difference.

We look forward to bringing you the results of this intense battle and all the others when we take to the microphones of KANW 89.1 FM and kanw.com on Election Night for our wall-to-wall coverage.  

ABOUT THE PAC

Hamblen and Barncastle Salopek

The oil-backed Our Values PAC involved in a number of legislative races on behalf of GOP candidates has raised $577,000 for the cycle, spent $429,000 and at last report had $172,000 on hand for the closing weeks.

Besides Yevoli, other GOP hopefuls they have been aiding include Nicole Chavez in ABQ District 31 in the far NE Heights and Samntha Barncastle Salopek in Las Cruces in her race against Dem Senator Carrie Hamblen.

Hamblen is seeking a second four year term after defeating local Las Cruces Dem legend Mary Kay Papen four years ago in the Dem primary. Papen is now endorsing Republican Salopek in the District 38 race. 

Hamblen has deep-seated progressive support in her district which leans firmly D and she has brought home ample capital outlay to the area. But a consultant with the Our Values PAC said of Salopek, a 39 year old water and agriculture attorney:

We see Sam as a rising start in the Republican party. She's young, smart, comes from a well-known and respected ranching family and is raising her own family, including a daughter with special needs. She would be a great addition to a state Senate that sorely needs new Republican faces.

Apparently a lot of R's agree. Salopek has raised $140,000 and spent $108,000, according to her latest report. That makes this a serious challenge for Hamblen, despite the 60 percent Dem lean of the district. But there are plenty of conservative Dems in those numbers as Papen demonstrated. 

Hamblen has raised $115,000 and spent $23,000 with over $90,000 left to close out the race.

The candidates discuss their views on the issues here. 

The Las Cruces Bulletin headlined their profile of the race: 

Hamblen's reelection bid faces stiff challenge from Barncastle Salopek

Hamblen vs. Salopek--another race for state political aficionados to keep their eye on come Election Night,

DEBATE VID

KOB-TV has now posted video of the Sunday morning US Senate debate between Sen. Heinrich and Nella Domenici held at ABQ's Congregation Albert and broadcast live. That video is here.

THE BOTTOM LINES

In an early draft Monday we had Senator John Pinto among those greeting VP Dem nominee Tim Walz at the Gallup airport Saturday. Sen. Pinto passed away in 2019. His granddaughter, Shannon Pinto, was elected to his seat and it was she who greeted Walz. Santa Fe reader Stuart Bluestone was among our readers who had some fun with the error:

Joe, I know Day of the Dead celebrations are drawing near, but I doubt even my old friend Sen. John Pinto was able to greet Gov. Walz at his stop in Gallup. 

Sen. Pinto lived to 94. 

Former ABQ GOP state Rep. Janice Arnold-Jones comes with the news that former ABQ GOP westside state Rep. Tom Anderson (2003-2015) has died at 91. No other details were immediately available.

This is the Home of New Mexico Politics.       

We'll skip the clichés about a Halloween scare and get right to the heart of the matter.

Our sources informed us last week that Trump was planning a New Mexico visit and that was confirmed Sunday when it was announced that the former president will conduct a noon rally in ABQ on Thursday. 

Now those senior sources are telling us the event will be held at the ABQ International Sunport and that Trump will be traveling to battleground Nevada following his stop here.

An airport play is quick and clean. Protesters will try to flood the zone but the Sunport location and ease for security there should lessen the impact, unlike the chaos that ensued when Trump stopped in downtown ABQ in 2016.

So why the visit? That question is on the lips of everyone in La Politica because polling shows VP Harris  and Senator Heinrich are safe for the Dems.

It's true that Trump's visit could boost GOP southern congressional GOP hopeful Yvette Herrell. She is four points behind Rep. Gabe Vasquez in the polling, so that's one part of the puzzle.

EXCLUSIVE ANALYSIS

In an extended conversation with Greg Payne, a former ABQ state legislator, veteran campaign consultant and now Santa Fe attorney, we sliced and diced the visit that is raising Republican spirits and causing Dems to pull out their hair. We agreed there are several layers of the onion to peel to explain the visit.

Yes, Trump could give a boost to Herrell in ABQ's South Valley, but his target at this late stage in the campaign is also the nation. Payne explains:

Trump is hitting historic polling numbers among Hispanic voters, especially men. Just the word that he has stopped in "New Mexico" gets attention nationally. That helps him in the battlegrounds particularly Nevada and Arizona. This visit is not about Trump carrying the state against Harris but it is about virtue signaling to Hispanics everywhere that he wants their votes. It will also give him another opportunity to send out his national message on the border--while being near the border.

Trump is getting 41 percent Hispanic support in the ABQ Journal polling, a stunning number that in the modern era has not been achieved on Election Night by a GOP presidential candidate. (George W. Bush did 40 percent in 2004, according to the exits.)

Still, Dem consultants dumped on the Trump NM visit with one of them sarcastically saying:

Trump is extremely popular in New Mexico. Very worth the time and money. Great investment.

Payne and I agreed that the stop here plays into Trump's recent efforts to nationalize the election. He held a major event at Madison Square Garden in New York Sunday, a state he has little chance of carrying but the national buzz created was the reward. (Also, there are a couple of swing congressional seats near NYC.)

Another angle: Trump has never won the popular vote. Running up his totals in non-battleground states that he is destined to lose still helps the goal of winning a popular majority not just one in the Electoral College. The margin could be tiny if he pulls it off--even an extra 5,000 votes here in little 'ol New Mexico could matter.

Local Democrats continue to play with fire, saying that Trump's new Hispanic support here is an aberration. Maybe. But if it isn't and Hispanics are leaving the Dems it has the potential to alter the future political narrative--if the GOP can find leadership to take advantage.

You can't say Trump ignores New Mexico. Despite poor odds he will now have made campaign stops here each of three times he has sought the White House.

WALZING IN 

Hoskie and Walz

He walzed in and walzed out. So it went Saturday for Dem VP nominee Tim Walz as his plane touched down in Gallup and where a motorcade then drove his party to an event in Window Rock, in Arizona, a battleground state. 

The visit was brief and quiet. 

We were informed by a Dem consultant that state Senators Shannon Pinto, a Navajo, and George Munoz, who represents the Gallup area, were on hand to greet the Minnesota governor. State Dem Party Chair Jessica Velasquez was also there.

Brenda Hoskie, chairwoman of the McKinley county Dem party,  enjoyed a handshake and a hug with Walz. She said on her socials:

I welcomed  Governor Tim Walz (Coach). I told Coach “We are at two minutes warning and we need to get the Kamala Harris goal. We are here to help him and Vice President Harris win this election.

As far as we could tell, Walz made no formal statements to the small group of NM greeters.

Indian Country in NM is again poised to deliver big margins to the Dem presidential ticket. 

In Arizona, Biden carried the Rez vote heavy in 2020 and some see it as again critical to the Dem's success there.

PASSIONATE NELLA

It was a rowdy affair, the second and final TV debate between Dem US Senator Martin Heinrich and his Republican rival Nella Domenici. (Video here.)

The one hour face-off was broadcast live from ABQ's Congregation Albert, a Jewish institution of note, but three times the moderator had to deal with protesters loudly confronting Heinrich from the audience over the war in Gaza that has claimed so many lives. 

After security handled that, the candidates soldiered on and it was Nella getting rhetorically rowdy as she unloaded not only the kitchen sink on Heinrich but all the plumbing, too.

It was the least she could do if she is to command a better showing Election Night than she is in the latest polling that has her losing to the two term lawmaker by 11 points. 

Domenici again pointed out the myriad of problems afflicting New Mexico, saying Heinrich has failed to reverse our standing. 

Fair enough, but Nella retorted that what Heinrich is actually tired of is the "brutal truth" that has confronted the state.

Heinrich was most brutal, if you will, and unusually so for him, when he commented on Nella's endorsement of Trump, a decision she waffled on for months: 

If she cares so deeply about women—how can she vote for and support a presidential candidate who has been found liable for rape, who has been convicted 34 times of felonies, who has been accused of sexual assault over and over and over again, including this week when another person came forward. I don’t know how that’s caring deeply for women.  

Domenici put the senior senator on the spot by citing rumors that he will run for Governor in '26:

He bought a new house up here in New Mexico just in time for the five-year residency rule for running for governor.

He did not deny he was thinking about a Guv run, but said: 

I don't traffic in rumors, and I will always serve New Mexico however I think I can do the most good for New Mexico, and right now that is in the United States Senate.

Our latest in the know tracking of the Guv race is that Heinrich will not run for the '26 Dem nomination if Sec. of Interior Deb Haaland makes a bid. But if she does not, then the story line changes.

Heinrich gets credit for accepting a second TV debate. He had the most to lose and could have taken a pass. And he might have lost this one. 

But that is in the context of Domenici coming to life and tossing red meat out that could help her finally consolidate GOP votes and other conservatives that have stayed on the sidelines and kept her at an anemic 40 percent in the polling.

This is the Home of New Mexico Politics.