Those Tuesday election results from Florida and Wisconsin that have Democrats grinning from ear to ear are reverberating in the November ABQ mayoral race.

Elections are about energy and if the concern over Trump continues into the fall among Dems--(and why would it not?)--nationalizing the election could be a path to victory. 

That was partly the case in 2017 when Tim Keller won his first term. Dem turnout spiked in protest of Trump who had taken office that January and Keller, running as a progressive, won handily.

Flash forward to 2025. Again Trump began a presidential term in January and an ABQ mayoral election is slated for the fall. 

Keller is already zeroing in on the Trump factor, holding a townhall and issuing news releases to detail possible funding threats to the city by the White House and his plans to limit the damage.

By far the major issue cited when voters are asked about the city is crime, but Trump's policies could be a strong motivator for progressives. 

While Keller is accused of playing politics over Trump--and he is--but unlike 2017 the President's policies this time are much more threatening to the city. Who can best handle that threat as Mayor is a legitimate issue. 

That is a challenge to the three prominent conservatives in the field--White, Sanchez and Armijo--who need the election to be about Keller and crime and not Trump.

If no other candidate backed by progressives is motivated to take on Keller and split the progressive vote with him--as the conservatives are doing with their vote--Trump will remain a serious policy hurdle for Keller but also a political gift. 

UBALLEZ AND THE LEFT

Reader Carrie Garcia comes with her analysis of the chatter over former Dem US Attorney Alex Uballez possibly becoming a progressive mayoral contender:

Joe, Alex Uballez is aligned with far left non-profit activist groups and those are the ones pushing him to run—think ACLU, Center for Civic Policy, OLE. For them, Tim Keller is not progressive enough. The leaders of these groups are well-paid ideological purists. They hold Democratic elected officials like Tim Keller to impossible standards and they end up losing, regularly (read: Paid Family Medical Leave this past legislative session). So it’s not about younger and older progressives being divided. Most voters, even Democratic voters, have never heard of Alex Uballez. This is about these well-funded, unaccountable progressive groups wanting a candidate under their control. 

We received this from Oriana Sandoval of the Center for Civic Policy: 

Joe:  Your reader “Carrie Garcia” mentioned the Center for Civic Policy (CCP) in your April 3 post. CCP is a 501(c)(3) organization that does not engage in political activity, including electioneering and candidate recruitment. The claim that CCP is engaged in recruiting mayoral candidates. . .is blatantly false. 

And this from Andrea Serrano of Olé:

Hi Joe, It’s interesting your reader “Carrie Garcia” wrote so confidently about OLÉ - and missed the mark completely. OLÉ is a member-based 501(c)4 organization and while it is true that we endorse candidates who: a. complete our questionnaire and b. are aligned with our values, we have not endorsed in the 2025 Mayoral race and will do so later this spring. Focusing on issues that affect workers and families, we support candidates who deliver for New Mexicans and not corporations. I invite “Carrie” to email us at info@olenm.org if she has any further questions about our process and our organization.

AND ANOTHER 

Take two on Uballez:

 Joe, Don’t know that I agree with the Keller camp about Alex Uballez. I think he will run and he will try to capitalize on his recent TV coverage from the DWI scandal. But he is counting on voters believing he spearheaded the investigation when he is simply prosecuting the players who were investigated by the FBI. 

He will also open the door to scrutiny from his time at the DA’s office, where he prosecuted DWI’s. All the while, Tom Clear was bribing APD DWI officers without anyone noticing. He probably should have recused himself in the federal prosecution. 

As for being tough on crime, what happened to prosecuting gun crimes in Downtown Albuquerque. Uballez stood with Keller at a news conference promising to take a federal hammer to teens and guns in the heart of Albuquerque.

VOX POPULI

A Santa Fe reader comments on our coverage of the very early going in the race for the '26 Dem Guv nomination:  

Joe, Deb Haaland won’t be served well by going negative early. That's the job of the consultants and she should stay well away from it. If Sam Bregman sticks to “all Crime all the time “ and can avoid being smeared by his clients' dubious records ( not his he certainly can’t be faulted for his record in defending the worst of the worst) he will be Okay, But Ok doesn’t win. He will have to crack the liberal bastions in the cities where Haaland has high popularity.

Reader Mitchell Freedman asks:

Hi Joe, I saw your post where It talked about a poll among likely primary voters where State Treasurer Laura Montoya was included as a gubernatorial candidate. I have never heard of her running. Is there an exploratory committee for Laura? 

Treasurer Montoya is not running. Her name appeared to be included in that poll to test the strength of a lone Hispanic candidate running with Haaland and Bregman. The survey was conducted in early December by PPP. Who commissioned the poll has not been publicly disclosed.  

More on the race. . .

Hey Joe, this is Freddie Lopez. With Sam Bregman entering the gubernatorial race, the Democratic primary is going to be absolutely brutal with the contrast between progressives and moderates. Haaland seems on course to beat Bregman when it comes to fundraising with her early haul of over $2 million so Bregman will have a huge challenge. On messaging, Haaland will have to take a more centrist stance on the issues but her record says otherwise. Bregman can use that to his advantage if he can defend his own record. This is going to be very interesting to witness.

Thanks for tuning in. 

Reporting from ABQ, I'm Joe Monahan

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Councilor Sanchez

The ABQ mayoral field continues to grow as does uncertainty over how many candidates will make the November ballot.

One of them could be westside ABQ City Councilor Louie Sanchez who has announced an exploratory run but not yet an official candidacy. 

He has put up a website seeking $250 in "seed money" donations as a prelude to his effort to qualify for $756,000 in public financing that will require 3,780 individual $5 donations from city voters. To get them will require a decent campaign organization.

A candidate can make the ballot by gathering 3,000 signatures from registered voters but must get the individual donations to obtain public financing.

So far it appears Mayor Tim Keller, former Sandoval County Deputy Manager Mayling Armijo, former BernCo sheriff Darren White and the aforementioned Councilor Sanchez are positioned to get the ballot signatures. Candidates Eddie Varela and Patrick Sais are question marks.

Keller has previously qualified for public financing and is set to do so again. 

It is unclear at this early stage whether any of the other current contenders will make the grade for that big pile of public money. 

RUMOR MILL

Alex Uballez

Meanwhile the rumor mill is throwing out the name of former US Attorney Alex Uballez as a possible mayoral hopeful.

Dem political consultant Sisto Abeyta says the entry of Uballez could worry Keller as he would be the first progressive challenger to Keller who is seeking an unprecedented third consecutive term. 

As US Attorney for New Mexico under President Biden, Uballez spearheaded the investigation into the historic APD DWI bribery scandal that continues to roil the city with numerous guilty pleas from APD cops and others. The scandal will remain in the headlines through the duration of the mayoral campaign and would be a reminder of Uballez's accomplishments--should he run.

The push for him to run appears to come from younger progressives as older ones stick with Keller. The Keller camp says they don't see a Uballez candidacy happening.

As for Louie Sanchez he, like Armijo and White, will be angling for conservative/moderate voters and perhaps in the process dividing them up and leaving Keller in a sweeter spot. 

One other angle: the Keller crowd will be very interested in getting one of their own in the Sanchez District 1 west side seat. He is a Democrat but has opposed Keller at nearly every turn.

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The camp of Deb Haaland is sharpening their knives as Bernalillo County District Attorney Sam Bregman prepares his entry into the Dem gubernatorial race. A campaign spokesman issues this warning to their rival:

Sam has never been vetted. He's about to be. His work as a defense lawyer is damaging, especially now that he is adopting a lock them up mentality when it comes to crime. 

For good measure the spokesman dropped a cliche that will be heard often as Bregman crisscrosses the state sporting his now trademark black hat:

"He's all hat and no cattle," offered the Haaland spokesman.

Haaland, the former Secretary of Interior under President Biden, also shares a title with Bregman--former chair of the state Democratic party. 

The initial scoffing over Bregman's chances has waned. One of our Senior Alligators explains:

Bregman will have a clear and defining message--tough on crime--while Haaland has had a soft opening with no clear message. She says 'she is listening' to voter concerns. That contrast will give Bregman a boost with moderate Democrats who will form his base of his support while Deb dominates the progressive wing. She will be the favorite but Bregman's chances have improved.

In addition, there's the money. Haaland, a national political figure has, already raised over $2 million but Bregman collected $500,000 for his successful bid for DA last year. In addition, he made good money as a prominent defense attorney.

Add to that his multimillionaire baseball star son, Alex Bregman, who signed a three year contract with the Boston Red Sox for $120 million, and $2 million seems a much easier hill to climb. Of course, he will still have to show it in this race.

THE POLLING 

A poll conducted last December 4-5 by Dem leaning firm PPP and that is floating in political circles showed Haaland with 50 percent support among the 557 likely primary voters surveyed. Bregman received 18 percent, State Treasurer Laura Montoya 6 percent and undecided was at 27 percent. 

With over a year to go, the polling is of interest but far from definitive and obviously not inhibiting Bregman from entering the contest as Haaland supporters had hoped.

THE BACK AND FORTH

Deb Haaland

While Haaland's camp knocks Bregman, he will tread carefully in criticizing her but his supporters aren't holding back. One came with this:

There's a lack of energy in Haaland's candidacy. She's uncertain about her positioning, like a boxer swinging at air. Many Democrats appear to have passed peak progressiveness and are looking for something different--something that delivers.

The Haaland campaign counters that their candidate has been drawing large crowds, that her politics are well-known and popular among primary voters and take note of Bregman's long record of losing elections.

Bregman is expected to announce in Las Vegas April 10, according to his mailer. That decision is a blatant appeal to northern Hispanic Democrats (especially men) as well as rural Dems statewide. Many of them are culturally and politically moderate. That's why his black hat is staying put--at least for now. 

The cities--ABQ, Las Cruces and Santa Fe--are Haaland's stomping grounds. 

The disconnect of the early campaign is how crime dominates the news in those cities while Dem voters there appear to resist the "get tough" message. Meanwhile in the rural stretches, impacted less by crime, voters are much more receptive.

The primary isn't until June 2026 but the approaching summer of '25 will not be spared the political heat.

FIGHTING IRISHMAN DIES

Bill O'Neill

The career of veteran state lawmaker Bill O'Neill may be most remembered for how he showed a spine of steel and repeatedly defied the demand from GOP Gov. Susana Martinez that the legislature approve a bill stripping undocumented immigrants of their driver's licenses. 

This passage from our January 26, 2012 blog explains why we dubbed him "The Fighting Irishman.":

He is in a district he hangs on to by a thread, and when ABQ Dem State Rep. Bill O'Neill defied the Republican Governor by voting against her bill to repeal driver's licenses for undocumented immigrants, he felt her wrath and that of her operatives. They flooded his district with robocalls in hopes of softening him up for November. Now O'Neill, aka, "The Fighting Irishman," is looking for some armor for the next round of hits he will take on the emotional issue. His office reports: 

Representative Bill O’Neill, House District 15, introduced a bill today that represents the simplest and most effective solution to the volatile driver’s license issue. His bill calls for issuing a provisional driver’s license to foreign nationals who do not have a social security number.

O'Neill, went on to win that battle with a compromise finally crafted near the end of the Martinez years.

O'Neill, who grew up in Ohio, attended Cornell in New York and served as Executive Director of the NM Juvenile Parole Board, died of cancer Monday at a Santa Fe hospital.

He left his ABQ North Valley House seat to run for the state Senate in 2012 and escaped the wrath of the GOP machine. He won and served there through 2024 when he was defeated in the Democratic primary after Senate District 13 was drastically change under redistricting.  

Besides being a politician O'Neill was a noted novelist and playwright, authoring the well-received play Save the Bees that explored bipartisanship in an era of division.

ABQ Dem state Senator Moe Maestas of ABQ said O'Neill was one of the most "authentic" people he has ever served with. O'Neill was popular among his colleagues, chairing a nonpartisan karoke caucus that included lawmakers from both sides of the aisle who met up to relax and blew off steam. 

Senate Democrats said:

He championed many legislative reforms regarding juvenile justice, including prohibiting life sentences for juveniles, and probation and parole measures.  He helped establish Dismas House, a transitional living program in Albuquerque for men on probation or parole. His legacy will be remembered through the countless lives he touched and the policies he advocated through his dedicated service. . .

Bill O'Neill was 68. 

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CNN Screenshot

Attorney General Raúl Torres is seen regularly before TV cameras promoting lawsuits against corporate interests but now he finds himself ensnared by those same interests. 

CNN explored Torres' acceptance of a lavish trip to South Africa (video here) along with other attorneys general, both Democrats and Republicans, and that led to this questioning of Torres:

Reporter: New Mexico's Attorney General Raul Torres is on his way into a public meeting.

Torres: We gotta run.

Reporter: We've reached out to your office. We haven't heard back. 

Torres: Sure, let me do this (meeting) and we can have a talk.

Reporter: (Torres) did not stick around like he promised to respond to our questions.

The NM AG's office is part of a multi-state case against Amazon and CNN points out the company had a representative invited to the South Africa trip from the corporate-funded Attorney General Alliance (AGA).

The South Africa trip is just one of the expensive international strips the group sponsors for their members who are also invited to bring a guest such as a spouse.

The exclusive trip to South Africa in 2023 that Torres took featured a safari, rooms at a five star hotel, wine tours and gourmet restaurants that served waygu steaks. 

AGA covered the cost including a flight allowance of up to $26,000. 

South Africa Safari

The guest list included more than a dozen attorneys general along with corporate lawyers and lobbyists from  companies like Amazon, Uber, Pfizer and Albertson's. Some of those companies have been sued by the attorneys general.

The AGA said:

Foreign delegations have a key role in strengthening bipartisan relationships. . . and educate all delegates on pressing civil and criminal issues. Asked about the safari the group said the visit included discussion on combating the illicit trade of endangered species."

Not all attorneys general take part. Arizona's Democratic AG Kris Mayes said:

It's intentional on my part to put my focus here in Arizona. I will leave it at that. 

In a statement to CNN Torres' office pointed to lawsuits filed against private companies and said AGA's programs "promote. . .equal enforcement of the law. "

Torres' role as a fighter for the regular guy could be called into question next year when he stands for re-election. But no Republican has won the AG's office since the 1980's and the Democratic attorneys general preceding Torres have also had questionable relationships with powerful corporate interests and the law firms that represent them. Still, the politically ambitious TorRes can't be please that he stepped in a mud puddle.

Mr. Attorney General, for dodging a reporter's questions about your luxurious South Africa junket paid for by the corporate elite while promoting consumer rights, you are hereby the victim of an Alligator Strike. Congrats. . . or something. 

 SANCHEZ SURFACES

Here's former Lieutenant Governor John Sanchez with former NMGOP Chairman Ryan Cangiolosi celebrating at Friday's Bernalillo County Republican Lincoln Day Dinner and renewing speculation that Sanchez may embark on a run for the '26 gubernatorial nomination. 

Sanchez, one of the state's more affable political personalities, is an an old political warhorse who knows that his surfacing will be seen as a near declaration of a candidacy. 

Sanchez, a moderate, is liked in the GOP. 

Rio Rancho Mayor Gregg Hull is the only Republican publicly exploring a possible run. 

This could be Sanchez's time, if he dives in. Hispanic movement toward Trump in the north, Sanchez's high name ID and his personal fortune are all factors. 

GOP ON FIRE

A fire that damaged the entrance to state GOP headquarters in ABQ early Sunday morning has set off an arson investigation and heated reaction from Republicans. 

Besides flames at GOP headquarters there was graffiti drawn on a wall that said  "ICE=KKK." That sent GOP Chair Amy Barela over the top:

Let us not forget: it was the Democrat Party that once supported the formation of the KKK, pushed Jim Crow laws, and defended slavery. Today, we see the same dangerous tendencies play out in new forms — attempts to suppress free speech, silence dissent, and use fear to control the political narrative. 

She also tried--absurdly so--to implicate Dem US Rep. Teresa Leger Fernandez in the incident after the congresswoman urged her constituents at a Santa Fe townhall Saturday to "agitate" for change.  

The GOP's scorching rhetoric may serve to do more damage than the fire. The first order of business in the wake of such incidents should be to turn down the temperature, not to add kerosene. 

There is no evidence that a Democrat set the fire. It could have been an anarchist or someone entangled in the immigration process. Or even a disgruntled Republican. No matter. It was wrong. That everyone can agree on and that's enough. But the polarization and the lure of the national TV cameras along with red-hot social media makes divisive sensationalism the order of the day across the political spectrum.

And in the style of the day, the NMGOP quickly started a fund-raising drive, citing the "cowardly act of arson" at their headquarters as an incentive to donate.

The GOP blaze comes after earlier this month Solomon Pena, a former GOP candidate for the state House, was found guilty of hiring people to shoot at the homes of elected ABQ Democrats in 2022 and 2023.

Have a nice day. 

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