Forrester & Haaland

Our senior sources report that veteran political consultant Scott Forrester is out as campaign manager for Democratic gubernatorial candidate Deb Haaland. 

The reasons given are unspecified concerns over campaign finances and squabbling over strategy.

We sought comment from Forrester but received no response and could not reach a campaign spokesperson.

Forrester, 43, has a resume that includes managing Haaland's first US House campaign in 2018, serving as NM Dem Party executive director and as chief of staff to ABQ Dem Rep. Melanie Stansbury, a post he surrendered when he signed up with Haaland's Guv campaign. 

The Haaland campaign has raised a hefty $3.7 million this year but since there are no details on the financial angle of Forrester's departure, let's take a look at the push and pull over how the candidate is being positioned. 

Haaland's play it safe strategy, dubbed "staying in the basement" by supporters of her rival Sam Bregman, has, according to one source, caused a "divide" in the campaign.   

The personnel shake-up comes after mediocre reviews of Haaland's first months on the trail, with criticism centering on the lack of substance in her messaging and the play it safe strategy that is backed up by her successful fund-raising. 

Haaland, coming off a stint as Sec. of Interior under President Biden, has seemed caught off guard by the critics and may be looking to beef up her image and be more forthright on policy. 

But some of her advisors, fearful that Haaland, who had trouble as a cabinet secretary articulating department policy, could make a major blunder that could give Bregman and her other foe, Ken Miyagishima, an opening. 

OUT OF THE BASEMENT 

Haaland does "come out of the basement" but when she does she is very careful climbing the steps. Her long-standing slogan of being "fierce" can seem out of context.

The subjects she has chosen to sparsely address include water, veterans and Trump's proposed budget cuts, issues that provoke little debate in the party.  

A speech she gave on economic policy was exceptionally light on detail prompting push back that she is not identifying with the major issues confronting everyday New Mexicans such as the rising cost of living, affordable housing, excessive crime, poor education, last in the nation child-well being and other complex policy matters.

Political pros say part of the problem stems from Haaland's early launch, coming as it did well over a year before the June '26 primary and as Sen. Martin Heinrich talked of joining the race which seemed to force her hand. Candidates usually begin announcing their intentions about now--a year or so before the primary. 

Some criticism of Haaland may be overstated and she remains the clear font-runner to secure the nomination. Most candidates in the early going shy away from  a position that could cost them votes. But the danger for Haaland is compounded by her uber-progressive politics while on Capitol Hill. 

The Dems are in the process of shedding much of their "woke" agenda as they get crushed by Trump. Haaland will need to pivot to a more moderate stance. That is a path filled with craters that both her Dem and GOP opponents will pounce on no matter how subtly she handles the maneuver. 

Suffice it to say the departure of her first campaign manager, while not an event that will garner notice outside of political circles, does signal that the house of Haaland still has work to do in putting down a firm foundation. 

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Morales

Lieutenant Governors are the step children of La Politica. None of them in the modern era has gone on to become Governor and so it is for current Lt. Gov. Howie Morales. 

He says he rejected a gubernatorial run--a run we doubt he ever seriously considered--and will apparently concentrate on nailing down the lucrative and vacant position of president of Western New Mexico University in his hometown of Silver City. His starting salary there could be in the $300,000 range).

The job would be a soft landing for the 52 year old former state senator and professional educator--and he would join former Attorney General Hector Balderas in that club. 

Balderas followed his two term stint as AG not by running for Guv but becoming the well-compensated ($232,500 a year) president of Northern New Mexico Community College. 

Balderas and Morales raised hopes that one of them would be the first native born Hispanic male  to take the office since Toney Anaya served one unpopular term from 1983 to '87. 

(Gov. Martinez was born in El Paso. Gov. Richardson, who was half-Hispanic, was born in California. MLG is also half-Hispanic although she is a native.) 

Morales and Balderas are affable personalities but neither had the political punch to advance to the governorship. Balderas toyed with the notion in 2018 but melted when MLG and company put the pressure on. 

Still, both come from humble backgrounds and their success is not shabby.  

Morales gets praise for competently presiding over the state senate, one of the few constitutional duties of the office, but he never waded deeply into any of Santa Fe's power centers. Even if he wanted to, MLG was not of a mind to let him spread his wings. 

While the # 2 under MLG bows to political reality, former Lt. Gov. John Sanchez, who served eight years under Martinez, is said by insiders to be contemplating a bid for the top job. 

He is a native Hispanic male but he is also a Republican. That's not necessarily a deadly combination but neither is it an elixir to break the long exile of our state's second bananas from the Governor's office 

VIRGIN'S PROBLEM

Sir Richard Branson

Reader Alan Schwarz writes of our Monday blog on the ongoing financial woes of Virgin Galactic, the main tenant of the NM Spaceport:  

The problem down in T or C is two problems, Virgin Galactic and Spaceport America. 

Sir Richard Branson, owner of Virgin, made his money selling about a billion dollars of VG stock over the years. The fact that many of his business ventures have been shut down shows he knows when to hold um and, most importantly, when to fold. Unfortunately, I can't say the same for our esteemed Legislature that continues to advance millions for the Spaceport every budget cycle. 

Note that the Spaceport's premiere event, the student rocket competition, which accounts for the majority of onsite visitors each year, relocated to Midland Texas. 

As for quotes, here is one of my favorites from Californian Willie Brown, 

“In the world of civic projects, the first budget is really just a down payment. If people knew the real cost from the start, nothing would ever be approved. The idea is to get going. Start digging a hole and make it so big, there’s no alternative to coming up with the money to fill it in.” 

We still see hope for the Spaceport but as Schwarz notes something is going to have to fill the hole, if Virgin goes belly-up there. 

This is the Home of New Mexico Politics.        

The race to muster the financial resources to effectively compete with ABQ Mayor Tim Keller in the November 4 election is now in the panic stage.

The challengers in the 11 person field seeking to qualify for public financing have dropped their bids for the $756,000 and are now going hat in hand seeking private contributions while Keller closes in on getting that generous pot of taxpayer cash. 

The latest and last to give up are Dem City Councilor Louie Sanchez and former Republican BernCo Sheriff Darren white.

Only Keller is set to collect the required 3,870 individual $5 donations needed to qualify for $756,000 in taxpayer funds to run his campaign for a third consecutive term. He has 80 percent of them and enough time to finish the job. 

It's hard to overstate how huge a development this is in the 2025 chase for Mayor. 

The opposition candidates have a mountain to climb to raise at least $500,000 each that political consultants say is the minimum necessary to effectively compete with the mayor. 

The candidates are also required to collect 3,000 petition signatures from registered voters to appear on the November 4 ballot.

Keller, Alex Uballez and Daniel Chavez have all qualified. 

White, Sanchez and Eddie Varela appeared poised to make it. Mayling Armijo has 53 percent of the signatures needed as the June 21 deadline approaches. 

SOMBER DEVELOPMENT

Darren White

Despite as many as six other choices, if the money chase continues to stagnate observers believe there is a chance that Keller could actually capture 50 percent of the vote and avoid a runoff election that would be required between the top two finishers if no one captures a majority. 

That is a very high bar but now at least visible after the public financing debacle that struck the alternative campaigns.  

Veteran Dem consultant Sisto Abeyta called the failure of any Keller challenger to get the big pot of public money "a somber development for his opponents." 

All eyes are now on parking tycoon Daniel Chavez who has already donated $100,000 of his personal money to finance the collection of the ballot signatures. Will he reach again for his checkbook? 

If Chavez wants to play some more he may have to. 

He is running as an independent but has hired a Republican consulting firm. It won't be easy to attract private cash in a race that Keller is now seen as dominating. The pressure is on political unknown Chavez to make a game of it and tap his own account. 

White is dealing with a very divided Republican party that will make his raising of private money a heavy lift. 

SENIOR ANALYSIS 

One of our Senior Alligators (a very reliable and experienced source of many years for the newbies out there) says of Keller's standing.

The election is now close to being his to lose. Or maybe already is. Uballez will have to hit him hard from the left to shake Keller's progressive base. Chavez or Mayling Armijo going aggressively after the center and right would help. White getting the money to be relevant is another factor. The chances of all this happening don't seem high. 

In 2021 Keller qualified for public financing and his two opponents did not but one of them, Sheriff Manny Gonzales, was able to raise more private money than the public amount being awarded. Gonzales still lost in a landslide in the three way race. 

This year's campaign began with Keller's opponents convinced that the high crime and ongoing homeless problem in the city would spell his doom. Now his opponents are looking at their own doomsday if this exhausted mayoral field can't regroup and make a fight of it.

This is the Home of New Mexico Politics.        

Many New Mexicans long ago wrote off the chances of tourists being launced into space on Virgin Galactic rockets from the NM Spaceport near T or C. After all it's been nearly 20 years since the plan was announced by Virgin's billionaire owner Sir Richard Branson and then Gov. Bill Richardson.

So, while hope still springs eternal in a few quarters, the company's cash is making the firmest forecast. As we hear in this update from longtime Spaceport watcher Brent Eastwood in DC there could be cloudy days to come: 

Joe: Virgin Galactic's latest earnings are not good. The company had only $500,000 in revenue in the first quarter. They lost $84 million--a little better than the $102 million they lost in Q1 2024. These guys are losing money faster than a rapper at a strip club. 

They say they are working on the new spacecraft that will launch the tourists and that there will be regular flights in the fall of 2026. Here is the problem. Since they are losing on average about $100 million a quarter and they need another six quarters before there are regular flights, they need around $600 million in reserves. 

They have $567 million in cash left as of March 31. Virgin Galactic could run out of money before the space tourists can fly on a regular basis and that's assuming no delays with the new spacecraft. Sir Richard would need to put in more funds which he says he won't do. So here we are. 

Virgin Galactic's share price was at $3.32 a share Friday, with the market valuing the company at $134 million. 

Barron's reports:

The company’s goal is to essentially build a “spaceline” business—think airline, but for space—with multiple Delta class ships operating at multiple spaceports around the world. It’s a bold vision that has been difficult to achieve. Sales in 2025 are expected to be less than $2 million. In 2019, when the company became publicly traded Virgin Galactic projected 2022 sales of about $400 million. Revenue came in just over $2 million that year.    

BROADBAND UPDATE

Look beyond the state's borders and the program to provide broadband internet to deprived rural areas keeps looking worse. 

The state is still refusing to start distributing the service via available satellite links and clinging fast to expensive high speed fiber--no matter how long it takes. 

This looks nearly ludicrous in the face of a barrage of news, including a report that the kids in rural India needing broadband could very well get it before our kids do. Why? Because they are going with Starlink service:

Elon Musk’s Starlink Inc. has got regulatory approval in India, paving the way for rolling out its satellite internet services in the world’s most-populous country. Starlink has secured the license from India’s telecom ministry, according to a government official, who spoke to reporters in New Delhi, asking not to be named as the information is not public yet.

And there's this:

A growing number of states are rolling out subsidies for satellite connectivity in rural areas, a change that could be a boon to Elon Musk’s Starlink and another nascent service from Amazon. From Maine to Nevada, states are starting to help some of the 24 million Americans who lack reliable broadband pay for satellite internet, rather than focusing such aid primarily on fiber connectivity as they have in the past. 

We haven't quoted the great former NM territorial Gov. Lew Wallace lately, but it's high time:

Every calculation based on experience elsewhere fails in New Mexico.

This is the Home of New Mexico Politics.