New Mexico Politics with Joe Monahan

The Eclipse 500
The politicians have been falling all over themselves to congratulate one another over initial federal approval of Eclipse Aviation's very light passenger jet that they say will "revolutionize" air travel. A common theme in the bragging is the "high wage" jobs the Albuquerque based company, the beneficiary of $100 million in taxpayer cash and assorted subsidies, will bring to the state's largest city. But will it really? Maybe it depends on your definition of a high wage job.

In a special report filled with congratulatory advertising from companies benefiting from Eclipse, the ABQ Journal did a good job of detailing the company's past, present and future. Buried deep in the report was this money line:

"Assembly jobs at Eclipse start at about $12.50 an hour." The article also said Eclipse someday hopes to employ up to 2,000 workers. (It now has about 650.) Of those 2,000 jobs, the newspaper reports, "the bulk" will be aircraft manufacturing technicians apparently earning that starting wage of $12.50 per hour. We take "bulk" to mean a majority of the 2,000. If we're incorrect, Eclipse's PR flacks, we're sure, will correct us.

At that rate, a full time employee could expect to make about $26,000 a year. Let's be generous and pump it up to $15 an hour. The yearly salary then comes in at $31,200. Not bad, but "high-wage?"

A WORKING MAN'S WAGES

The average hourly wage of an ABQ manufacturing job, according to the NM Department of Labor, is $617 a week. $12.50 an hour works out to $500 a week; $15 an hour to $600 a week. Rather than "high wage" the majority of the projected Eclipse jobs would appear to be near average paying by NM standards and low by national standards. The U.S. Department of Labor reports the average national weekly pay for a manufacturing job is $695 a week.

Not to rain on Eclipse's parade--we've had plenty of the wet stuff lately--and recognize the jobs we're citing don't require advanced college degrees, but when the politicos say "high paying jobs" most folks think north of $40,000 a year and think all of the hoped for jobs will fit that category.

Before the yelling starts that the "free market" should set the wage levels, remember it was not the free market alone that got Eclipse flying. It was that $100 million bag of taxpayer goodies that comprises 20% of Eclipse's total investment. With that kind of money in the pot New Mexico politicians have every right, and the duty, to encourage higher wages at Eclipse. When they step up and do it, the mutual backslapping will be in order.

RATING THE RACE
Patsy
We scored the month of June for ABQ GOP Congresswoman Heather Wilson, noting Dem Attorney General Patricia Madrid's "June swoon," as ethics headlines blanketed the state calling into question the AG's role in fighting corruption. But how about July? We see July as a wash, with perhaps a slight edge for Madrid in one of the most important congressional battles in the nation.

Heather's hit ad on ethics may have scored a point or two, but did not deliver the long shot early knockout some R's hoped for. Madrid answered adequately with her own hit on Heather and was backed up by the national Dems who carpet-bombed the radio airwaves on her behalf. (Mark Barabak took a closer look in Sunday's Los Angeles Times.)

This race has more legs than 04' when Dem Richard Romero lacked the international and national turmoil as a backdrop. His 02' face-off with Heather was destined for the ash heap, coming as it did just a year after the 9/11 attacks.

WHAT NOW?

So, is it different this time? With over 60% of voters saying the country is on the wrong track, gas prices staying too high for too long, an unpopular GOP President, and a dismal international scene, it should be. Clearly, this is the Dems best, and perhaps last shot, to end the Wilson era.

The issues do not break the incumbent's way, so the effort to make Madrid the issue will continue, but as a tested and popular two term elected attorney general, a native New Mexican, Heather's first female opponent and a Democratic base more engaged than the R's, Madrid appears poised to go the distance if she can move the debate off of ethics and avoids any verbal gaffes.

As for Heather, she has a mistake free campaign resume, a record of starting close to her foes, but closing strong on Election Night, a disciplined intellect, and a burning ambition that keeps her working hard. An early stumble would be a shocker.

The Wilson mantra this cycle is her "independence, integrity and honesty." Will character trump political chaos? July did not produce an answer. Now it's on to the guns of August.

TV NEWS

No sooner had we blogged that Kim Holland was the new co-anchor of the KASA FOX 2 News at 9 p.m. than the announcement came that KRQE-TV'S parent company, Lin TV, purchased the station for $55 million. That means Kim and co-anchor Jeremy Jojola will no longer be the 9 p.m. news team. That word from KRQE which will take over the newscast which has been produced by KOB-TV, the employer of Jojola and Holland. No word yet on who the new anchors will be when Channel 13 takes over KASA at the end of August. Get your resume in.

This blog is your blog. Email your news and comments from the top of the page.

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AG Gonzales
How would you like to be a fly on the wall when United State Attorney General Alberto Gonzales meets up in ABQ with New Mexico U.S. Attorney David Iglesias on the last day of July? They sure have much to talk about. Like the second trial of Robert Vigil and that federal investigation into the construction of two Bernalillo county courthouses and the metro jail.

Gonzales has signaled a desire to meet with Hispanic community leaders when, according to insiders, he touches down here July 31 and takes a tour of the National Hispanic Cultural Center. Not a bad idea as grumbling increases among some NM Hispanics that they are being cast in a bad light by the ongoing corruption probes that the feds have undertaken. But bad light to some is disinfectant to others.

Some of the Alligators report that "target letters" have been received by those the grand jury is investigating. We are also being told to prepare for a large number of indictments in the courthouse/jail case. "Joe, every good lawyer in town has been signed up for this one," claimed one. When? That's the big question, isn't it?

If recently resigned NM Highlands University president and former state senate powerhouse Manny Aragon is one of those the feds charge, you know you can count on a fight. If indictments are announced during the fall campaign and the second Vigil trial is going on at the same time, you have the recipe for a very tense political atmosphere. And it's not necessarily a sure thing that it would benefit the GOP. Critics will be looking for any openings to politicize the matter and create a backlash, putting Attorney General Gonzales and Iglesias under the microscope.

It's not small potatoes either, as both major parties see the growing Hispanic vote nationally as key to the political future.

Yes, Gonzales and Iglesias have much to discuss, but there will be no flies on the wall or other distractions when they start to peel the onion on the secrets of La Politica only they are currently privy to.

HAILING BIG BILL

Friends of Big Bill are always looking for a reason to boost him even more. What, a couple of million bucks of TV commercials saying he's the greatest things since sliced bread isn't enough? Apparently not, as they turn puffy with pride over the latest

USA Survey numbers showing the Governor garnering an approval rating of 64%. "That's even better than Senators Domenici (60%) and Bingaman (58%)," bragged one of the Guv's booster of the mid-July poll.

The USA survey is conducted by automatic phone and is said to boost the number of answers and lower the undecided. Professionals advise that you keep that in mind. But the poll does pick up the trend, and right now that trend is showing the Guv where he wants to be.

TV TALK

Speaking of trends, it's still trending to KRQE-TV 13 when it comes to the 10 p,m news ratings. The latest for the July sweeps with just a day to go day has ABQ CBS affiliate again taking the ratings crown getting a 9.0 rating and a 17 share. KOB scored a 6.8 and 12 share and KOAT a 6.4 and 12 share in the almost final numbers. KRQE also won the 10 p.m. news race in May. A "rating" reflects the percentage of TV households viewing a program; "share" reflects the portion of all households viewing TV at that time.

July is one of the lest viewed months of the year and the stations don't put too much stock in it. Still, even in low-turnout election there has to be a winner.

CAMPAIGN MEDIA

Also in media, Josh McNeil is the new press secretary for Big Bill's campaign, something to note since R Guv nominee John Dendahl recently blasted Guv news honcho Pahl Shipley for attacking him. Dendahl said Shipley is a state employee and needs to stay off the campaign trail. He apparently will, at least publicly, as McNeil moves in as official mouthpiece. I asked the twenty-something McNeil for background, but haven't received any yet. Maybe he secretly worked for Republicans or fears an Alligator bite.

Have some NM political news or comments? We're all ears. Drop an email from the top of the page and we'll chat it up.

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He's in no danger of overtaking Big Bill in the fundraising department, but with nearly $200,000 in his campaign war chest ABQ Dem State Rep. Al Park appears to hold the top spot in the campaign kitty contest among the 112 NM senators and representatives. To top it off, the ABQ attorney is unopposed for another two year term this November to his SE Heights seat.

Where did he get all the cash? Much of it came from his short-lived bid for the Dem nomination for attorney general last year, a race he dropped out of when it became clear Gary King was going to be the man to beat, but Al never did spend all that much. A big chunk was raised with the help of Big Bill.

Park was still raising money in May, taking in about 5 grand, according to state reports. He doled out little, giving small donations to State Reps Debbie Rodella and Nick Salazar.

Friends of Park say he still sees a political future for himself beyond the lower chamber of the legislature and the campaign cash will help keep him in the game.

PETE: NO PIED PIPER

Meanwhile, another politician with higher ambitions, Light Guv Diane Denish, has raised a boatload of money too, even as her top of the ticket compadre, Big Bill, takes in millions. Diane has $750,000 in cash, but unlike the primary, she will not be cutting any TV spots for the fall face-off. "I might use the money for something else someday," she recently joked. Could 2010 be that close? And could there be some staff changes coming for the state's #2? Could be, say the Alligators. We'll keep you posted.

What's Pete waiting for? The state's entire congressional delegation is lined up to protect the pristine Valle Vidal wilderness from gas drilling, with the notable exception of the NM senior senator who is also chair of the Senate Energy Committee. He says he is waiting for a federal report that he believes will "probably" recommend against the drilling, but because there is a shortage of natural gas he is hedging. But drilling in Valle Vidal is dead and there would be a political firestorm if the senator holds up consideration of the Rep. Udall sponsored measure which has already passed the House. Here's more from the Washington Post.

Earlier this year Pete tongue lashed energy big wigs for outlandish profits. Maybe he's just trying to play nice with them now before joining the rest of our federal reps in protecting this state treasure.

LAND COMMISSION CAT FIGHT
"Zoe the Cat"
It's appropriate that there be a "cat war" in a race featuring a Lyons. Yes, Democratic land commissioner candidate Jim Baca's shameless pandering for the votes of animal lovers, and anyone else willing to overlook his prickly personality, has dragged his "Jerry the Cat" into the tussle.

Now from the home of incumbent GOP Land Commissioner Pat Lyons comes "Zoe the Cat" who, like Jerry, informed the blog that he is ready to support his owner. However, there's a caveat as revealed in this letter Zoe sent Lyons and forwarded here.

Dear Beloved Owner,

I am pleased to offset the shameless vote seeking of your opponent and will gladly let my image be used to show that you have an open heart toward us furry creatures. You have been very good to me, but I do have one minor complaint. Pictured on your Web site below your biography is a lovely photo of "our family." There we all are-- Kimberly, Daniel, Pat, Amy and Sandy. But, gracious master, "we" are not all there. I am nowhere to be seen.

I understand that Jerry the Cat was treated in a similarly disrespectful fashion when his owner complained that he was "the only one around" when his wife and family were out of town. Jerry received an apology and extra wet food for a week. Frankly, I believe I am owed the same. Yes, I am ready for a cat war and will give my all to scratching Jerry's fur with fury, but I need some lovin' first.

Sincerely,
Zoe the Cat

Thanks for the heartfelt thoughts, Zoe.

Will the Lyons family issue an apology to Zoe? Will she be included in future Lyons family photos? Or will Baca's Jerry the Cat be spared the cat war? We are on this like a wet blanket, not that our feline friends want to be anywhere near that.

This is ground zero for New Mexico politics. Email your latest news and comments from the top of the page.

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Robert Vigil
Will Robert Vigil cop a plea? Should he? Could he? So goes the frenzied speculation in legal and political circles with the second trial of the ex-state treasurer on a multitude of public corruption charges set to begin September 5; a trial that threatens to cast a shadow over the fall campaign and perhaps dampen enthusiasm for Democratic candidates.

Sources who say they are in the know report that there have been overtures between federal prosecutors and Vigil's defense team and that discussions have been specific.

"I am told that Vigil has weighed a plea bargain that would have him plead guilty to two of the charges, serve 18 months in prison on one and 18 months of probation on another. But he is determined to stay out of prison and has rejected the plea. He wants no prison time and is willing to take his chances at a second trial," reported a usually reliable source who claims to know, but we caution has not been directly privy to any such talks.

Vigil's first trial was a nail-biter with the jury ending up hung 11-1 for a conviction on one of the key charges. Federal prosecutors are not about to plead out the biggest corruption case in state history without a guarantee that Vigil serves time behind bars, especially since he was just one juror away from a prolonged stint at the Big House.

POLITICAL HOTHOUSE

Vigil's case has already entered the political arena, with ABQ GOP Congresswoman Heather Wilson running a TV ad claiming her Dem foe, Attorney General Patricia Madrid, failed to act on corruption in the Treasurer's office. But there are other political angles that are surfacing, with Vigil supporters pointing out that U.S. Attorney Iglesias was Madrid's' Republican opponent for attorney general in 1998 and that the timing of the second trial---in the middle of the campaign---plays against her.

"Is it political? It sure looks that way. Maybe Iglesias has his eye on the Heather seat when she someday moves over to run for Senator Domenici's seat. He would gain handsomely from a big victory over Vigil and at the same time would help Heather," speculated one Alligator.

But others maintain Iglesias had no control over the timing of the second trial, that it was set by the judge and agreed to by all parties. "Who was to know there was even going to be a second trial? We had a mistrial forcing the second round. The timing is purely coincidental and the charge that it isn't is simply an effort to poison the jury pool," argued a supporter of the government's case.

Still, cases can be delayed for a variety of reasons and legal beagles are saying watch for any last minute maneuvers that could push the trial out to November or later, avoiding a political tempest for Madrid as she tries to put Wilson on the defensive on the many weaknesses polling shows Republicans face this cycle.

Vigil, 52, has got to be worried that guilty verdicts at a second trial could send him away for many years. Insiders say he has been told as much by key advisers and friends, some of whom have urged him to cop a plea. But Vigil draws on a deep well of support from his large Las Vegas area family and apparently sees his best bet as fighting all the way. That's no surprise. He fought to tooth and nail in the public arena to rise to the top and, as the saying goes, you go with what you know.

BROTHER, CAN YOU SPARE NINETY GRAND?

Geno Zamora is back on the campaign trail or, we should say, the fundraising trail. He's sent a letter out asking supporters to help him retire a $90,000 campaign debt he says he accumulated in his unsuccessful bid for the Dem AG nomination.

Hey, maybe AG winner Gary King can hold a party to help out Geno. But Gary may be thinking of having one for Lem Martinez, whose presence in the race made it an uphill battle all the way for Zamora. Since Big Bill was in Geno's corner, maybe he can help out with the debt retirement. If anyone can afford to, he can.

MY BOTTOM LINES

Just before I was wrapping things up, I glanced at the TV and saw Big Bill's latest ad in which he notes "how we respect each other and our Second Amendment rights." (The right to bear arms) This value, the Guv avers, is one he will never forget. It's yet another play for the conservative rural vote as the push continues for a 60% win. What a luxury to be able to ignore those city liberals who, fortunately for the Guv, are probably more turned off by GOP nominee John Dendahl than the thought of even more bullets flying through the summer air...Oops. Did I say Monday that Big Bill got 53% of the Chaves county vote in 02' and John Sanchez received 45%. Please reverse those numbers. John carried the county.

AND ONE MORE THING....

Alright, one more that crossed the blog desk near the Midnight hour. The AP's Barry Massey checks in with the news that Dem. U.S Senator Jeff Bingaman has a staggering fundraising advantage over R opponent Allen McCulloch. Jeff had $1.7 million in cash at the end of June and Doctor Allen had about $2,400. Did we read that right, $2,400?! Bingaman spends that much on enchiladas for his staff each week. Will Allen raid his own hefty bank account to jump-start this thing? Am I groveling for action? Hey, I dig Heather and Patsy, but we need something for the off days.

Help keep us in the loop. Email your news and comments from the link at the top of the page.

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Robert O. Anderson
Big Bill probably hosts a fundraiser a day, but one last week in the heart of Republican country had to set his heart aglow, with insiders reporting that some 250 persons--including several prominent R's--turned out for a $100 a plate lunch at the new Roswell home of Jeff Wilson, President of the NM Cattle Baron Restaurants and himself an avid R. The Guv's successful Chaves county invasion shows that Republican Guv nominee John Dendahl still has work to do to consolidate his base before moving to grab Dems and independents.

Among the prominent R's on hand to pay homage to Big Bill was legendary NM oilman Robert O. Anderson, 89, and his son Phelps Anderson, a former GOP state representative and national committeeman and
candidate for the 2002 GOP nomination to succeed U.S. Rep. Joe Skeen. (Steve Pearce won.) Phelps is also in oil and gas.

Roswell is home to the leaders of a breakaway GOP faction, State Rep. Dan Foley and State Senator "Lightning" Rod Adair. Dendahl, an ex-GOP chairman, helped them lead the ouster of Ramsay Gorham from the party chairmanship. Roswell is reliable Republican country and it is essential that Dendahl carry it big if the Guv is to be given any kind of challenge in November.

Richardson didn't do badly there in 02', holding R Rival John Sanchez to 53%, with the Guv getting 45% and the Green candidate 5%. Could he do even better there this time? That's the question in light of that fundraiser. The bottom line on this one is that Dendahl may be forced to spend more time and money in the area than he would like, preventing him from moving into areas rich with soft D's.

THE GOP VOTE

Can Dendahl attract upwards of 85% of the Republican vote this year, a number not out of the ordinary? It may be tough. In 02', according to Brian Sanderoff of Research & Polling, Sanchez only managed to get about 70% of the GOP vote. And here's another tidbit from Sanderoff and his numbers crunchers to keep in mind. "The reason Richardson did so well (56% statewide) was because he held on to the vast majority of the Anglo conservative Democrats. One of the reasons he performed well among the white conservative Democrats was because the Republican candidate was a Spanish surname." offered Sanderoff.

So the next time you see Big Bill in a cowboy hat or riding a horse, keep that in mind.

CHENEY NM VISIT

Certainly the R's are not going to cede their prime Roswell territory to Big Bill and to that end they have slated a big money visit for Vice President Dick Cheney in the SE NM city for August 15th. Cheney's opinion polls have been in the basement for months, but he is still a formidable fundraiser among the affluent GOP base and his stop here is aimed at taking advantage of that appeal.

To take part in a roundtable with the veep and GOP member of NM 's congressional delegation--Domenici, Pearce and Wilson--you need to pony up $5,000. It's a thousand a pop for a photo with the nation's #2 and for those who want the cheap seats, it'll cost $300 a person for a reception.

The event will take place at Tom Visser’s Jinglebob Land and Livestock Company on the Old Dexter Highway. Now that's "Little Texas!” And guaranteed to be more friendly for the controversial VP than the big city of ABQ.

The money raised will go the GOP's 2006 "Victory Committee" aiding GOP candidates as well as the get-out-the-vote effort.

ON THE DEM FRONT

Let's move it over the to the D's and specifically the Patsy Madrid-Heather Wilson face-off for the ABQ congressional seat. I must have been on blog overload late Wednesday night as I misinterpreted my Alligator info and said Dem Patsy had debuted on TV with one positive spot. But there was another one responding directly to Heather's initial ethics blast. Here it is in Quicktime. See my Thursday analysis for more.

And if that wasn't enough confusion, I got zinged by an in-the-know Madrid fan for saying the "positive" Madrid ad appeared to be made well in advance of the Heather attack ad.

"Your blog suggested that Patsy's (positive ad) was nice because it was probably shot before Heather's attack ad. Wrong. Patsy's ad was shot on the morning of Saturday, July 15. I was part of the crowd shot from behind. Heather's attack ad first aired on Friday, July 14. Therefore, Patsy's response consciously took into account Heather's ad. When are you buying lunch. I am starved."

OK. I think I got that, but buy lunch? Now I have to pay for my errors--literally? Hey, this ain't the New York Times. The expense account is tapped.

And another note on this race. Our exclusive report revealing that the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has set aside well over a million dollars in ABQ TV money for Madrid has been confirmed, with the DCCC announcing a commitment of $30 million to key U.S. congressional races, including the ABQ battle. But Heather fans needn't worry too much. We're sure the national R's will come through for her. But campaign finance reform looks like an uphill climb. The lobbyists for the TV stations will do all they can to keep this gravy train rolling.

MY BOTTOM LINES

Finally, on this sunny New Mexico Monday, this from new reader and retired City of Albuquerque chief attorney Jim Foley.

"Joe, today I found your site. You have a bit of (the late political reporter) Ernie Mills and (the late syndicated columnist) Fred McCaffrey in your prose. It's good to see fairness too. I'll put the page on my list to watch. Keep it up!"

Jim, thanks for including me in that company. Ernie and Fred were terrific and are missed, as is the very much alive onetime ABQ Journal columnist Larry Calloway. They all had strong personal opinions, as I do, but believed the essence of credible analysis is to not deny those opinions, but to set them aside, as best you can, when you hit the typewriter keys. The other thing we believe in around here is passion for your topic. If you don't have any, why write a column or anything else?

Thanks for the comments, corrections, compliments, criticisms and news tips. Email them from the top of the page. Back tomorrow with more New Mexico politics.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2006
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Manny
Big Bill was quick to issue a statement on the news that Manny Aragon has cut a deal with the Highlands University regents and will be leaving the school's presidency. “The Governor is pleased that the instability at Highlands is over," offered up the Fourth Floor. Should we add that they are also glad that another potential campaign issue is off the table? Well, we just did.

The news of Manny's ouster and the possible naming of educator Manuel Pacheco as interim Prez did not surprise our readers. The Alligators broke the news on your blog Tuesday. But email came in regarding our remark that Manny's service in the state senate was "a template for future leaders in the gathering and exercise of New Mexican political power." Reader Abigale Webster saw it from another angle: "Manny was more like the "How To Guy" on bullying your way through the legislature to get what you want. Future leaders should strive to exhibit humility and respect for others, and work diligently to develop leaders around them."

What will be Manny's next move? Keep it right here.

RIGHT BACK AT YA', HEATHER

Democrat Patsy Madrid graced our Enchanted Land's TV airwaves for the first time of the 06' campaign Wednesday. The attorney general extolls her eight year record of being tough on crime. Not a bad ethics argument in itself when you think about it. In fact, she never mentions Heather by name, preferring to finger President Bush as the bad guy. She does indirectly address Heather by saying "special interests" such as oil and drug companies control D.C., but the slick ad was very likely made well in advance of Heather's attack. She closes out her debut with a bit of cleverness: "I am Patricia Madrid and I approved this ad, but the special interests won't approve of me." A little cutesy, but you remember it.

Of course, Madrid, like Wilson, will be getting millions from the "special interests." In a second ad, she counterattacks Heather's ethics attack ad, pointing out contributions to Wilson from indicted ex-House Majority Leader Tom Delay. "That's being ethical," she asks?

THE SPOT: ANALYSIS & CONTEXT
Patrica Madrid
In her positive ad, Madrid imparts the correct tone at a critical juncture. She hits her lines with confidence and there is an air of credibility about her that Heather's previous foes lacked. Like Wilson, this is a seasoned performer who has paid her dues. Madrid positions herself more as an incumbent heavyweight, rather than an underdog challenger and it enhances her stature. Note her cross-armed "power pose" at the front of the 30 second spot.

Cosmetically, there has been significant improvement. Madrid looks more "congressional" than she has in her free media appearances. The hairstyle that is being used against her in the Heather ad has been tamed. Her clothes look more "uptown" and fit well. She will need to keep that look throughout this intense battle.

With gas prices over three bucks a gallon, the Middle East exploding and the economy shaky for many, some analysts believe other issues could prove more important than ethics. Drivers forking over fifty bucks to fill up their tanks could think so too. Stay tuned.

NATIONAL TV DOUGH

About that million dollar plus TV buy for Madrid courtesy of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee set for mid-September. We blogged the item recently, but should add that the DCCC usually reserves the time and then decides whether to pull the money trigger only if the candidate is polling well. Madrid's supporters are confident she will be and the money will come. At this point, there doesn't seem much reason to doubt them.

MARTY'S WORLD

Dem ABQ Mayor Marty Chavez knows how to give a foe the cold shoulder, but he is also not above warming up to those he previously dissed. Take the case of GOP City Councilor Don Harris who defeated incumbent Tina Cummins last October. The Marty machine went all-out for Tina and it left bad feelings between Don and the mayor. But the two have apparently made up, as Marty recently hosted a $500 a pop reception for the attorney/councilor. But this new political love fest comes with a price for the mayor who is being hammered for it by Dems on the Left.

SPECIAL SPIN AWARD

Paul Broome. Please come to the podium. You are the winner of the "Blog Spin Award for the Summer of 06."

Reacting to an ABQ Journal poll that shows only 11% of ABQ voters support giving the mayor a hand in picking APS school board members and 78 percent opposed, Broome, Mayor Chavez's education advisor, declared: "We haven't even begun to campaign yet, and we already have 11 percent on our side!"

Paul, you will receive a framed certificate noting your accomplishment. You will also be honored at a lunch gathering of six Senior Alligators at the ABQ Barelas Coffee House where you will lecture on "The Art of Spin." And, of course, you get to pick up the check.

And so goes the buzz of our beloved La Politica. Come back again soon.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2006
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Heather
There's a disconnect between ABQ GOP Congresswoman Heather Wilson and NM's two other U.S. House members and it didn't take long for the national Dems to take advantage of it by putting up this radio ad. {PDF} Reps Udall and Pearce say they voted against taking their salaries up by 2 percent to $168,500 a year, but Heather's office claims the measure they are talking about was not in fact a vote for a pay raise.

"Some members claim, and the press buys it, that this is a procedural vote regarding congressional pay raise, but it is not," argued Heather's spokesman.

But Heather's fellow NM R, Rep. Steve Pearce, issued this statement after the vote (249-167) and permitted the cost of living adjustment.

"I have voted against congressional pay raises every time during my tenure in Congress. While I understand my colleagues' rationale in approving cost-of-living adjustments, I must differ from them on this issue. Too many Americans are struggling today." Declared Pearce of Hobbs.

That's the same point the Dem radio drives home, saying while congress folk get a $3300 a year pay raise, the minimum wage has not been raised for nearly a decade.

THE REAL THING

Our Thursday blog asserting that voters may sense a "scent of inauthenticity" around Heather because of her ongoing struggle to define herself as an "independent" voice brought several emails that saw it differently. Here's one of the more thoughtful.

"Occupying the middle of the road does not have a "scent of inauthenticity" for any member of Congress or Heather specifically. In fact, it seems more inauthentic to me for a political figure to constantly occupy the same old tired ideological spot. You have to wonder if they ever use their brains for original thoughts. I think Wilson is more authentic because she approaches problems and issues in a thoughtful way without regard to the party line."

PRESS YOU COULDN'T BUY

The Guv's press flacks could not have done a better job of painting a glowing picture of the Big Bill show. But this one comes not from paid staffers, but from international mag of note, The Economist. Besides complimenting the Guv's policies, the British publication does dole out a comment on Bill's Prez hopes.

"The problem (getting elected President) would be getting enough of the Anglo vote. As one ex-serviceman, a Mexican-American, put it in an Albuquerque bar: 'He's a Mexican, and they'll never elect a Mexican.' In the meantime, he has at least put New Mexico on the map." reports the magazine.

No, that was not John Dendahl who said that. What he does have to say can be found on his just launched Web site.

CONFOUNDING THE CRITICS

When it comes to campaigning, Big Bill has not changed much over the years. He relishes it, probably more than governing. And it appears he is having fun on the 06' trail. His latest TV spot is a comedy riff about there being a new sheriff in town, (a spot that aired inadvertently, but will be seen later in the campaign) and, he was yukking it up on the radio the other day, pointing out that the new Rail Runner train can go up to 80 MPH. "That's even faster than I go," wisecracked the chief exec known for speeding across the landscape.

The Guv's public face is much different than the one his foes paint, as a vindictive and power-obsessed politico. No doubt he has his moments, but on the trail he is jolly, engaging and in command. With over 25 years of campaigns under his belt, the Governor is now entering his peak years.

THE BOTTOM LINES

Yes, there is the constant drumbeat of news headlines highlighting enormous campaign contributions and whether they are in exchange for public policy positions. The critics are confounded on why this has not inflicted severe damage on Big Bill. But Governor Johnson received hundreds of thousands from Indian tribes and President Bush and Senators Domenici and Bingaman have also been awash in millions in campaign cash, all the while casting votes or deciding matters that impact the industries they take money from.

While raising ethical issues, these contributions are legal. The guess from this corner is that most voters are hesitant to signal out any one politician for punishment when the flawed system allows everyone to take part.

If the so-called "pay to play" issue remains largely a nonstarter, Big Bill will continue his Happy Days Are Here Again" campaign unperturbed. That may be an old tune, but it's still a listener favorite.

Thanks for the company today. Let's visit again tomorrow.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2006
Not for reproduction without permission of the author

Manuel Pacheco
The brief and tumultuous Manny Aragon era at New Mexico Highlands University in Las Vegas will come to an end as soon as this week with the former state senate powerhouse receiving a hefty contract buyout and former University of Missouri President and Highlands graduate Manuel T. Pacheco being named interim president of the school. That's the word from top sources tracking the action for "NM Politics with Joe Monahan" who were reporting in even as the latest legal action regarding Aragon and his battle with the Highlands regents played out at the State Supreme Court.

"The public may not like the big check he will get, but he has come to an agreement with the regents. This avoids further legal wrangling and sets the stage for Pacheco to come in and calm things down. A search for a permanent president will then get underway," reported a top Alligator with a record for accuracy.

Aragon, a longtime champion of improving education for Hispanic youth, was overjoyed when he was named President of the school in a move widely believed to have been engineered by Governor Big Bill, but he ran into trouble when he moved to get rid of several professors. Later, questions arose about Manny's handling of his "President's Fund" as well as building contracts awarded by the school.

But Aragon has not been charged with any wrongdoing. In fact, when the regents moved against him hundreds of students rallied in support of the Dem political giant who has ensured his place in state history through a nearly 30 year legislative career, widely considered to be unparalleled and a template for future leaders in the gathering and exercise of New Mexican political power.

Overshadowing the controversy at the campus has been a federal investigation into the construction of two Bernalillo county courthouses and the metro jail. Aragon's name has surfaced in connection with that probe and speculation has mounted that the regents, despite their denials, were feeling pressure to get rid of Aragon fearing that he could be indicted by the feds.

MANUEL T. PACHECO
Highlands U
Pacheco has a distinguished resume, having led several major universties and retiring as chief of the University of Missouri four campus system in 2003. The 65 year old also has corporate contacts. He serves on the board of directors of Public Service Company of New Mexico. He began his career teaching Spanish in the schools of Northern New Mexico before going on to lead the University of Arizona as well as the University of Houston. In 1962, he received an undergraduate degree in languages from Highlands. He received a Ph.D in foreign language education from Ohio State. The PNM Web site lists him as a resident of Phoenix. A Pacheco son is a Santa Fe medical doctor.

When Pacheco left the University of Missouri a scholarship was set up in his name with this description:

"To honor an academic administrator who exemplifies outstanding academic leadership at the University of Missouri. Former University of Missouri President Manuel T. Pacheco was recognized as a leader who exhibited humility and respect for others, and worked diligently to develop leaders around him. Candidates should exemplify these traits."

As for Manny, students supporting him claim the regents earlier offered him a buyout of $250,000. Regents denied that. Whatever the case, our sources say money is coming and Manny is going. We blogged last week that his name has circulated as a possible to head the National Hispanic Cultural Center in ABQ. If the future is less rosy and the Feds enter the picture, attorney Aragon will be financially well-armed, not to mention intellectually.

Manny Aragon has had a storied run in the annals of La Politica. For him to go quietly into the night would be the ultimate oxymoron.

Breaking the big political stories and having fun doing it, we are the home of New Mexico politics and Campaign 2006. Newstips? Comments? Interested in advertising here? Drop an email from the top of the page.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2006
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What ever happened to the Dog Days of Summer when everyone lolled in hammocks and cooled their toes at the local swimming hole? Looks like they have gone the way of typewriters and eight track tapes as Campaign 06' heats up as hot as your car's sun-drenched interior. And it's not just here. World events are spinning crazily, with out-of-control pump prices, Middle East war, an Iraq civil war and North Korea joining the party. It makes you want to be a kid again selling lemonade for a nickel a shot.

Not that anyone didn't expect the campaign to devolve into the usual hyper-negativity, but they could have given us reason to hope. Not to be. Friday night ABQ GOP Congresswoman Heather Wilson signaled the all-out war to come against Dem challenger Patricia Madrid as she launched the first negative TV of the election season. The content was utterly predictable. The timing, a mild surprise.

Reciting copy from a couple of ABQ Journal editorials, the spot accuses the attorney general of having "let us down" and that she "ignored corruption for years," as it prominently mentions the infamous case of ex-Treasurer Robert Vigil.

There is a method to the mid-summer madness, say the never-on-vacation and always salivating Alligators.

"Wilson is framing this race and forcing Patsy to start spending money to defend herself. She is saying the campaign starts when I say it starts. But it also says she is not above the 50% mark and, as with her past races, she needs to work to seal the deal," weighed in a Dem Gator.

And while Madrid, to the consternation of some supporters, has done no paid advertising, she will now.

"Patricia Madrid has never shied away from a fight and she won't this time," telegraphed a campaign operative to the Heatherites.

THE HEAT OF THE DAY

For now, the state Democratic Party is carrying the campaign water. "Wilson has turned the other cheek and stayed silent as the culture of corruption and cronyism has flourished in our nation's capitol, accepting campaign contributions from indicted and convicted Republicans...," scored the D's.

Wilson's relatively mild ethics hit is sure to be followed by more with the same theme and in more detail. By going early, she gets a heads-up on how Patsy plans to handle the hot potato and, as our Gator noted, forces her to spend campaign money she may not want to. Heather also comes with the ethics charges before possible federal indictments concerning the construction of Bernalillo county courthouses, an prospective event that could further supersize the ethics issue.

But Heather's hit is not without risk. It is a matter of opinion, not fact, that Madrid should have been more aggressive on the ethics front. And the editorial page Heather cites as her Bible will soon endorse her candidacy. Also, Heather's own numbers may take a dip for going negative and as the counterpunches are delivered.

The intriguing question is this: What if the ethics issue fizzles? If Madrid is not taken down by it, what can they take her down with? The pickings look slim. But that's later. First, Madrid must jump the hurdle the early-racing Wilson has erected. Stay tuned.

BIG MONEY FOR MADRID

Madrid may be on defense this week. But don't look for this campaign to be a one way street. Top media sources tell me that the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has purchased over a million dollars of TV (a half million on KOB-TV alone) and it will start in mid-September. I am sure they will use all that time just to say nice things about Patsy and nothing bad about Heather. Sure, and Kim Jong-Il isn't crazy. It's another good reason Heather has for her early start.

DENDAHL'S HEAT STROKE

While Heather is out of the gate, her fellow Republican, GOP Guv candidate John Dendahl, appears to need some political veterinarians. Foot-in the-mouth disease is the culprit and it's a whopper. He took to the airwaves of ABQ's 770 KKOB-AM late last week and accused the Democratic Legislature of going soft on repeat DWI offenders because most of the offenders and many of the lawmakers are Hispanic.

Not what the doctor ordered, John. And it had the Big Bill camp jumping on it like a free jet ride from a corporate donor.

"Dendahl has a history of sticking his foot into his mouth by making insensitive comments and alienating whole classes of people," blasted campaign honcho Dave Contarino.

The Dendahl radio misstep came on the heels of news that his stepson had been busted for cocaine possession, resurrecting the issue of Dendahl's past advocacy of drug legalization. When it rains, it pours. Forget the Monsoon. This was a Dendahl Deluge.

MY BOTTOM LINES

The radio incident created a sense of unease that the "race card" is going to be a mainstay of this campaign. Not good for the future of our politics. One Gator asked why the Guv could not have left the Dendahl rebuttal to Hispanic organizations, rather than getting directly involved. They could have if they were not obsessed with going over the 60% mark. But the prospect of rallying the Dem Hispanic base was apparently too tempting.

The Governor is still the Governor, not just a political candidate. With a huge lead, he has the luxury (and the responsibility?) to keep the temperature from getting too high when his less experienced opponent can't bite his tongue or steers the debate toward racial combat. But self-restraint isn't the way of the world these days, including our little corner of it.

We're #1, but still trying harder. Send your political news via email from the top of the page.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2006
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In a surprise attack, ABQ GOP Congresswoman Heather Wilson unveiled her first negative attack ad against Dem challenger Patricia Madrid, slamming the attorney general for dropping the ball on investigating an array of state corruption scandals. The ad comes on the heels of Heather's first TV spot, which was all on the sunny side of the street, touting Wilson as an independent minded politician who was "fighting for New Mexicans."

But Friday night the gloves came off in a pre-emptive strike that caught the politicos by surprise. The Dems immediately claimed Heather sees herself as being scared, but other analysts said Wilson could still be ahead in the race, according to her June poll, but decided to hit in order to keep Madrid from gaining any momentum.

"Maybe she is taking a page from Bill Richardson's book who is ahead in the polls against R opponent John Dendahl but is taking no chances and has already run negative radio against Dendahl." So said one Alligator checking in here shortly after the spot premiered on the state's airwaves on a hot July evening.

The only public poll in the closely watched congressional battle was released weeks ago by the Madrid campaign and it showed Heather just one point ahead of the Democratic contender.

We'll have more on the story on Monday's blog.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2006
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Rep. Wilson
We said we would learn where ABQ GOP Congresswoman Heather Wilson thought her race stood with Dem challenger Patricia Madrid when she aired her first TV ad. And we have. Her 30 second Campaign 06' opener debuted Wednesday, heavy with verbal references to her "independence" and visual emphasis of Heather connecting with Hispanic males.

The analysts were all over it, pointing out that Hispanic men have been a source of comfort for the U.S. Rep in her majority Dem district; that they have shown signs of coolness to Madrid and that the ad is aimed at keeping a fair share of them in the Heather camp. By doing so, she prevents Madrid from consolidating the Hispanic vote and breaking away.

The ad also takes on the current climate of corruption, if only subtly. "Heather Wilson: independent, honest, effective," narrates a soothing baritone announcer.

As for her self-touted independence, no surprise there. It has had a featured role in all her campaigns since 98' and especially the past year as she has cast several critical votes with the D's to avoid being pigeonholed as a hard-right, Bush-backing R in the moderate ABQ district.

"Sometimes I am working with people who are in my party; sometimes they are not in my party, but that's OK. People have sent us there to get things done on problems that matter to them....New Mexicans are independent people. They want somebody to stand up for them. They want somebody to fight for New Mexico," declares Wilson.

She has several wardrobe changes in the brief spot, opening and closing in a bright fuschia shirt. She takes her close-ups well and narrates her script with no signs of the defensiveness that she sometimes brings to the table.

NM Dem Party chair John Wertheim, himself a onetime candidate for the ABQ congressional seat, was quick with the counter spin.

"She is not fighting for us; she’s fighting to distract New Mexicans from her record of rubber stamping the Republican special interest agenda. Her early ads highlight a fear that New Mexicans will reject her for losing sight of our values,” argued the chairman.

HEATHER'S POLITICAL HEALTH

Wilson will have the airwaves to herself for the rest of the month (if you don't count Big Bill's big ad buy) and that can't hurt. She gets a chance to frame her candidacy without the worry of having Patsy counterpunching as the Madrid campaign gives no signs of going up early as Heather has.

We are not privy to Heather's June poll, but one can assume that she is not trailing as she came with a positive, soft ad. She is addressing potential vulnerabilites, that if taken advantage of by Madrid, could cost her the seat.

The American flag makes a more than casual appearance in the ad, perhaps sending a message to conservative R's that she is also still one of them. (Hey, not that the libs are flag-burners.)

Being many things to many voters is never easy. In addition, the Wilson personality, lacking the warmth and connecting quality (at least in the media) of predecessors Manuel Lujan and Steve Schiff, forces her every two years to make her case. Also, as a female congressperson some analysts believe she is scrutinized more, especially by male voters, keeping her on pins and needles at the start of all her efforts.

Still, this is a proven performer who has overcome initial voter hesitancy time and again. Her double digit margins of victory attest to her ability to start low and finish high.

THE BLOG PERSPECTIVE

Wilson's opening spot reflects her political character; it's studiously done, doesn't have much flash and pizzazz and exudes a certain confidence, but keeps in check any of the mild arrogance that has occasionally surfaced in her public life.

Unlike the rest of the state's congressional delegation, Wilson is forced to walk an ideological tight rope and it has scented her with a hint of inauthenticity. Where does she really stand? What does she truly believe in? It is these questions that the Democrats and Madrid will pose as they work to define her as too conservative and paint her as a pretender to the throne.

Heather's decision to go up on TV earlier than ever could, as the Dems argue, signal a "scared" Heather. If so, isn't it fair to ask, "Where's the opposition?" If Heather is freaked out over bad poll numbers, why are they not out there driving the stake through her heart?

No one hands you the power of the United States government, you have to take it. Wilson has come early to say she is ready to take it. Are the Democrats?

MORE ON MANNY

Thanks to some solid journalism from the ABQ Tribune, the trials and travails of NM Highlands University President Manny Aragon are brought into better focus as the saga over his future at the school plays out in the white-hot heat of campus controversy. Yes, the Feds confirm that a grand jury is looking into the construction of courthouses in Bernalillo county and what role, if any, the former senate powerhouse played. Of course, that has nothing to do with his loss of political support among the school's regents. Right. And Hatch chile is really mild.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2006
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Manny Aragon
You would expect nothing different. Manny Aragon is going out, if he's going out, fighting all the way. Late Tuesday a district court in Raton thwarted, at least temporarily, the Regents of NM Highlands University from meeting today and discarding their controversial president.

The court challenge to the meeting was actually filed by Highlands student body leaders, but you can bet Aragon, an attorney, is pulling all the strings as he displays the tenacious pesonality that made him one of the most powerful Legislative leaders in state history.

If nothing else, Aragon will probably walk away with a fat wallet when the Regents are permitted to meet and lower the axe. But who knows? As leader of the state senate Aragon was a master vote counter. Maybe he has one last trick left up his sleeve,

He fights even as he appears friendless on the Fourth Floor of the fabled Roundhouse where Big Bill once engineered his placement at the head of the Las Vegas, NM university. Now, like a script from "Mission Impossible," the Guv disavows any knowledge of Aragon's actions.

For Aragon, his ouster is a depressing prospect. His pet cause since the 70's has been the advancement of Hispanic youth. His senate years insure his legacy in that regard, but he could have made an even more lasting impression if things had worked out at Highlands.

MANNY'S THIRD ACT?

As for whether it is the end, never say never when it comes to Manny. Already some of his advocates say he would make a great director for the National Hispanic Cultural Center in ABQ!

And Aragon backers deep in the ABQ South Valley are starting to make noise over the insistent rumors that the U.S. Attorney has the former lawmaker in his sights in connection with a corruption probe of the construction of Bernalillo County courthouses.

They say an indictment of Aragon by the GOP controlled federal government following the unsuccessful prosecution of ex-State Treasurer Robert Vigil could mean things get ugly quick bringing charges of racism and politics. Aragon's supporters already fired the first shot this week, holding a campus demonstration on his behalf.

With still so much activity swirling around the legendary solon, it is much to early to call in the political obituary writers.

THE READERS TAKE

Emailers here are skeptical of claims from Big Bill that he has been hands-off in the Aragon affair. "Denial by Big Bill of not having something to do with the situation at Highlands is outlandish. Since when has Big Bill not had anything to do with anything in NM? Silence from the Roundhouse means Big Bill wants Manny out. You figure the denial." Wrote one who summed up the prevailing opinion in La Politica.

AND MORE READER MAIL

That slap the NM GOP took at attorney general and Dem congressional hopeful Patricia Madrid for a mailer she sent out last week and that we blogged Tuesday drew some reader reaction. Former Rep. Udall press aide Glen Loveland weighed in this way...

"While Patsy's recent "official" mailing was more than likely timed for the election, NO ONE compares to Heather when it comes to spending taxpayer money on franked mailings. Her newsletters are always full-color and expensive. Although she's prohibited from sending them out 60 days before an election, these mailings are an enormous advantage for all incumbents." So pointed out the ex-congressional aide.

And over on the R side, Marilyn Hannahs, President of a GOP women's group that meets in Rio Rancho, finds it interesting that it is frontrunner Big Bill launching media attacks. She also rips the national D's for the radio hit they have let loose against GOP ABQ Congresswoman Heather Wilson and which we brought to your attention Tuesday...

"Let the mud fight begin! It is 4 months until the election and I am already sick of the negative campaigning begun by the Dems. They always complain the Republicans are mean. What do they call the ads against Heather and John Dendahl running on the radio?

Both ads are somewhat laughable, especially the "Third World" reference used against Dendahl. And, slamming Heather for missing one vote should point out to people that do-nothing Madrid has done nothing for 8 years. I just don't want to hear the Dems whining when the Republicans respond in kind."

Politicians whining? Why Marilyn, where would you get that idea?

DENDAHL MONEY CHASE

Marilyn would probably be interested to know that GOP Guv candidate John Dendahl is busy trying to raise money so he can respond to Big Bill's attack ad and launch some of his own. ABQ GOP State Senator Kent Cravens and his wife Melanie will host a fundraiser for him at their ABQ home this Friday to help get the ball rolling.

Menawhile, some R's are asking what happened to the "aggressive" campaign that Dendahl promised when the R's dumped J.R. Damron and replaced him with the ex-GOP chair?

Joltin ' John has been getting the snot nuked out of him on statewide radio and there has not been a peep back from him or the NM GOP. Can't someone come up with a quick $10,000 and display the promised aggressiveness? Wonder what J.R. is thinking?

DEATH OF A REP

Let's note the death of GOP NM State Rep. Avon Wilson, 76, before getting back to the email. She passed Tuesday after a long battle with cancer. Wilson's Chavez, Lincoln and Otero county seat will likely go to Nora Espinoza in November who Wilson supported and who won a hotly contested June GOP primary in the conservative SE area.

BACK TO THE MAILBAG

Emailer "Mike" was grouchy over Big Bill's impressive polling numbers which we blogged on Monday.

"When New Mexico rates only higher than Louisiana and Mississippi in education and poverty, and New Mexicans according to the polls think Richardson is still a great governor, I think I would add a title to his many--'The Great Illusionist'. It appears New Mexicans are more concerned with illusion than the truth." Analyzed Mike.

Come on Mike, your spoiling the party. Here, have some of this special Kool-Aid. It's sure to make you see things "the right way."

Well, we'll try again tomorrow to bring a dose of reality to the wonderful world of NM politics. Thanks to the readers today for an insightful blog. We'll do it again soon so email your comments and news from the link at the top of the page.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2006
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Heather
Leaving nothing to chance, incumbent GOP ABQ Congresswoman Heather Wilson will launch her 2006 TV advertising campaign Wednesday as she moves to protect her seat against Democratic challenger Patricia Madrid. That word coming late Monday from top media and political sources who say the ad buy, the earliest ever in a campaign by the four term representative, appears to total between $150,000 and $200,000, will air on the major broadcast stations as well as cable and will run through the end of the month. The Alligators also report that the decision to pull the TV trigger comes after Wilson polled the 1st congressional district in late June. No word on what the poll disclosed, but the nature of the ads will tell us much about where she believes this campaign stands.

Traditionally, early TV ads are soft bio spots or issue-coded ones aimed at solidifying a candidate's base vote. Whatever the case, Wilson’s decision caught the attention of Democrats late Monday, with one spinning that the early ad buy is actually good news for Madrid as it reveals that Heather is more than a little concerned about her feisty challenger and that her strategists say she must go on early. On the other hand, these campaigns seem to be starting earlier than ever and the unprecedented July TV could be a reflection of that. Again, the content of the ads will tell much of the tale.

The Madrid camapign has no immediate TV plans, but the campaign against Heather has gone electronic as you will read next.

NAT'L DEMS JOIN BATTLE

Some local Dems have been whining that the closely watched and much hyped battle for the ABQ congressional seat has so far been a dud, with a full month passing since the June primary and still no action. If you are going to give incumbent R Heather Wilson a run for her money, they argue, you better get busy early. Maybe someone in Washington is listening because the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) has unveiled a 60 second radio spot that is the the first paid media hit on Heather.

The spot is one of those sarcastic, jokey numbers that pokes at Wilson for missing a House vote on an Iraq war resolution so she could attend an ABQ fundraiser featuring President Bush.

The D's spoiling for a fight are glad to see the action, even while some expressed disappointment with the tone of the ad which they think was too lighthearted. Still, the critical Dems breathed a sigh of relief that the DCCC did not come with an "ethics" ad against Wilson, an issue that has given Attorney General Madrid nothing but trouble and shows signs of hurting her more than the incumbent. Not that there isn't as much, if not more, recent political squalor on the banks of the Potomac as there is in our Enchanted Land.

The vote Heather missed was a symbolic mid-June resolution rejecting a firm timetable for pulling troops out of Iraq. It passed on a 256-153 vote. While she missed the vote, I did see Wilson on C-SPAN take to the House floor and strongly condemn setting any timetable before departing for her ABQ fundraiser with Bush at which she raised $375,000.

Interestingly, the Dem attack ad does not go into the merits of the war and any troop withdrawal. Madrid is already on record for establishing a timetable. Late last year Wilson expressed hope that American troops could soon begin to withdraw if the Iraqi government strengthens, but her floor speech was all Heather Hawk.

HEATHER'S WAR RECORD
Patsy
In an accompanying news release [PDF] the national Dems did provide a detailed record of Heather's Iraq position, including her initial reluctance about going in there.

"In late 2002, Wilson told the Albuquerque Journal, 'I have not yet gotten to the point where I can support a large-scale U.S. military action against Iraq.' At the same time, Wilson opined to the Journal that the U.S. should not use force except in response to armed attack against the United States or its allies," said the DCCC.

The DCCC goes on to charge Wilson with "fence sitting" and "straddling" the issue now that she is firmly in the stay-in-Iraq camp. They also charge that her reasoning for changing her mind--weapons of mass destruction in Iraq--has been discredited.

The bottom line is that Madrid, through her national allies, has laid out the first serious parameters for debate on the war and the incumbent's record. Heather is sure to have her own version and we will likely hear it soon.

DON'T TELL JEFF

One of Madrid's other key issues will be those stubbornly high gas prices. She highlights it on her Web site and faults Wilson for supporting the 2005 energy bill which Madrid calls a giveaway to the big oil companies. But Patsy might not want to talk about it when she appears with Dem U.S. Senator Jeff Bingaman. He voted for the measure, which passed the senate overwhelmingly, 74-26, and he proudly received accolades from President Bush for his vote when the Prez last year signed the measure into law in ABQ.

Bingaman says he had mixed feelings about the bill, but went for it because it will encourage renewable energy sources. Energy Committee chair Pete Domenici has since backed away from the $2 billion in tax beaks for big oil contained in the measure.

YOUR PEN PAL PATSY

Madrid hit the mailboxes just before the weekend with a piece that looked suspiciously like campaign lit, but turned out to be be a color flyer warning of "online predators" and urging parents to "Be Afraid." The attorney general asks us to get a copy of her "Internet Safety Guide" to help her protect the state's children.

The NM GOP charges that it is a campaign piece and crosses the line. They are asking for details on the funding and who received the glossy spread. But the AG's camp says no taxpayer dollars were used on the mailing. "When the AG wins a major court settlement, a portion of the money is required to be spent on consumer education. This mailing was paid for entirely from that money." They said.

You can see how that "Be Afraid" headline could easily be mistaken for campaign literature. That's how most New Mexicans probably feel about the coming election season.

Send me your political news from the email link at the top of the page, and thanks for your company today.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2006
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Are you tanned, rested and ready? Looking forward to part two of Election Year 06'? Good. Me too. My valiant effort at abandoning blogging and becoming a mid-life golf pro took a hit over the long holiday, so I am back here and set to cover my ninth New Mexico gubernatorial contest. And if that is the current record for longevity, I don't want to hear it. My recent sports setback is all the reminder I need that time marches on. But the mind is more willing than ever and so are the latest batch of politicos seeking the power and the glory in the kingdom of La Politica, so off we go...

BY THE NUMBERS

Besides picking over the Fourth of July barbecued chicken, I also digested the latest polling data starting to seep across our Enchanted Land. Two sets of numbers, one from the Rasmussen Research, the other from Democrat D.C. consulting firm Lake Research have the Guv's race starting about where you may have expected. Big Bill has a commanding lead and the main tension in his battle with R John Dendahl is going to be whether he is able to expand his margin and reach the 60% mark that his supporters want so he can launch a vigorous campaign for the 08' Dem Prez nomination, or whether Dendahl can pull the psychological upset and hold the heavyweight below 55%.

Despite the state Treasurer and Eric Serna scandals, a steady drumbeat of negative press over his campaign contributions and their impact on public policy, Rasmussen has Big Bill garnering 56% to Dendahl's 32%. (500 likely voters, conducted June 27. Margin of error +/- 4.5%) Lake, polling for Dem land commissioner hopeful Jim Baca and Dem attorney general candidate Gary King, has him even higher--59% to 29%. (400 likely voters, conducted June 27-29. MOE +/-4.9%.)

This is the strongest polling start for a Guv hopeful in modern history. His job will now be to avoid the big mistake and risk dipping below 55%, and managing expectations on that 60% number which has only been reached once in 94 years of state history--the 64' Dem landslide year when Jack Campbell was elected Guv with the 60% landslide mark. (The closest ever was a classic squeaker in 1924 when Dem Arthur Hannett beat R Manuel Otero by just 199 votes ending up with 50.09%. Hannett was defeated for re-election in 26'.)

One other polling note. According to a reliable Alligator, in mainly conservative southern NM, , a survey there recently put Richardson at just 51% to Dendahl's 37%, revealing why 60% is so hard to reach statewide. (In 02' the R and Green candidates combined took 44% of the Guv vote.)

THE TUBE DELUGE

Richardson's TV started the day after the June primary, has stayed up since, and there is no end in sight. If he raises $10 million (a "grotesque" number opines newspaper columnist David Roybal) we could conceivably expect media buys of $6.5 million. That is, if the traditional rule of thumb that 65% of your money raised goes to the boob tube, radio and mail. He has already raised $8.4 million, a number that, if not grotesque, surely raises concerns about our system of campaign finance.

By the way, any money leftover from the Guv's state race cannot be spent on a federal Prez bid. There are a few loopholes, but not many. Expect the Guv to spend just about all of his immense campaign treasure.

Plenty of that money will go to get out the vote. And it's already started. Alligators checking in here report that Big Bill field organizers were out on the weekend before the Fourth of July knocking doors and getting his voters to make early requests for absentee ballots. Like the already unprecedented summer TV and attack radio, that is a record early kick-off of the field campaign.

The Big Bill Web site is an expensive doozy too, with all the bells and whistles of the Internet age. Podcasts, his media spots, and even a defense of each line of his radio attack ad against Joltin' John are posted for the scrutiny of the prospective Big Bill backer.

DENDAHL'S HOPE

Dendahl seeks to live off the fat of the land. He'll try to raise a million or two, but will hope that free media coverage will make a fight of this one. But the state GOP attack on the ABQ Journal for its initial coverage of Dendahl's campaign is presumably not sitting well at Journal Center and that could mean an additional challenge the feisty underdog does not need.

You can almost hear the GOP salivating over the whispering over the federal probe of the construction of courthouses in Bernalillo county and whether indictments of Aragon and others will be announced by GOP U.S. Attorney David Iglesias. It was Dendahl, after all, who tag teamed then Legislative leaders Manny Aragon and Raymond Sanchez in the 90's. He rode the theme to Republican Roundhouse gains and in the process made history by breaking up (along with R Guv Johnson) that powerful leadership duo.

Former State Senator Manny's imminent departure under fire from the presidency of NM Highlands University and his rumored involvement in the courthouse investigation, could give the GOP nominee a fresh opportunity to open the Dems ethics wounds, but linking them to Big Bill and making them stick is another story. Again, this is the same guy polling 56- 60% after all the scandal headlines of the past year.

POLITICAL IMMUNITY

And why is that? Why is the ethics barrage thus far turning out to be a political mirage for this Governor's foes? "It is his record of accomplishment versus some damaging headlines and the record is winning," maintains a veteran Dem political operative.

The polls seem to indicate that in the eyes of many voters Big Bill has taken on rock star status. His national reputation, (He was back on "Meet the Press" Sunday) combined with a workaholic mentality, has voters looking at him much differently than the political community which is dissecting the campaign contributions and the scandal du jour. Also, a jaded Mr. & Mrs. New Mexico see millions being raised by other New Mexico politicos, including the congressional delegation. Finally, Big Bill's campaign commercials that vastly out circulate the printed word don't hurt either.

As long as the ethics suitcase is not dropped right outside of his Fourth Floor door, this remains a Governor largely granted immunity by an electorate looking at things far differently than the partisans and the press

THE BOTTOM LINES

That Lake Research poll conducted for Jim Baca has him leading incumbent GOP Land Commissioner Pat Lyons 38% to 33%. That means it should be the closet of the down ballot races this year. Lyons has nearly a half million in the bank, but as the Dem contender Baca has the historic edge...As for Dem Gary King, the insiders peg him the heavy favorite to beat out GOP nominee and politcal newcomer Jim Bibb. According to the Lake survey King is on his way. He comes in with 49% to Santa Fe Bibb's 28%.

OK. We're warmed up, back in the saddle--all those good cliches. Help keep us in the swing of things by emailing your political news and comments from the link at the top of the page.

More cool stuff from New Mexico's #1 political blog comes your way tomorow. Hope to see ya' then.

c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2006
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