Mitchell Freedman

The idea of eliminating the state income tax for New Mexico's lower income households is catching on in the wake of Democratic and independent voter defections to Donald Trump. In this edition of Other Voices, longtime Rio Rancho attorney, author and progressive Mitchell Freedman argues that the state needs to do more than just cut taxes:

Economically-oriented progressives like a progressive income tax. The New Mexico income tax system is, sadly, a mostly regressive income tax system, and needs to be reformed. Right now, a New Mexican wage/salary earner is paying between 4% and 5% income tax, whether the earner is making $30,000 or as much as $200,000. 

That is much more flat than progressive. Most people who call themselves economically conservative like a flat, not progressive, income tax system or oppose any income tax at all (as in right wing Texas and Florida). 

As an economic progressive, I will be pushing our representatives to ensure nobody making $40,000 or less should be paying any state income tax--plus those earning over $175,000 should be paying 7% on the margin and those making over $500,000 9% on the margin. 

I emphasize "on the margin," because, in my lifetime, our news media--and too many government class teachers-- have been awful in teaching people about marginal taxation rates, which means the rate one pays rises only after reaching different levels of income. So, a millionaire pays the same tax sum on the first $50,000 earned that a person making $50,000 annually earns, and so on. 

As I look at the slight increase in progressive tax rates in the legislative bill last year, most, but not all, progressive Democrats supported that bill. It was mostly Republicans and conservative Dems who opposed making the tax rates more progressive. So, let's not confuse readers into thinking the vast majority of Republicans, who are no longer anything but right wing, would support making our state's income tax system more progressive in its function. 

Even if they supported cutting income taxes at the lower rate, most would fight like hell against making well-off and wealthy people pay a higher rate on the margins, which, if they blocked the increase on the well-off and wealthy, would recklessly leave less revenue coming into the state overall. 

And maybe we can do the same for corporate tax, as that tax starts at 4.8% for the smallest of businesses and all the way up to $500,000 net income. That is really a flat tax. The tax only rises to 6.9% for the biggest companies. I can definitely see some room for progressive tax rate improvement in state corporate income taxation, too. 

The other thing NM should consider, since oil production output is not lessening, is to go the Alaska route, and give each New Mexican, 18 or over, $2,000 a year from the oil revenue. Universal basic income (UBI) here we come! 

And who knows, maybe a Republican who claims to be a populist may join this Bernie Sanders Democrats in supporting a truly progressive income tax and corporate tax--and UBI. I dare to dream! 

MORE TAX TALK 

Reader Maurreen Skowran, a BernCo Dem party ward chair, comes with this:

Joe, the idea of eliminating state income taxes for people earning less than $45,000 a year would be a great boon to New Mexico’s lower-income residents. But the state can do even more. I propose to accompany that tax cut with a refundable Cost-of-Living Credit to target those with the greatest need. 

This plan would support both working families and those who can’t work, such as new mothers and people with disabilities. The Cost-of-Living Credit would provide up to $1,000 for those making less than $25,000, $750 for those between $25,000 and $35,000, and $500 for those earning between $35,000 and $45,000. 

Together, these measures would cost around $250 million annually — a manageable figure given New Mexico’s surplus from oil and gas revenue.

This is the Home of New Mexico Politics.         

E-mail your news and comments. (newsguy@yahoo.com

Following this month's election women now make up a majority of the 112 members of the state legislature, after steadily gaining numbers for the past decade. 

New Mexico in 2025 will see a female-majority Legislature with 60 of 112 seats in the Roundhouse to be held by women. That breaks down to 44 of the 70 members in the state House of Representatives — or 63% — and 16 of the 42 seats in the Senate — or 38%.

So how come there's been no reform of the department that most observers thought would be first in line for a fix as women flex their muscle at the Roundhouse? 

That department would be the perennially troubled and deeply disappointing Children, Youth and Families Department (CYFD). 

There have been a few outspoken women lawmakers openly demanding change (Republicans Rebecca Dow and Crystal Brantley come to mind), but most of the female lawmakers are Democrats and they have done little or nothing to prod fellow Democrat and Gov. Lujan Grisham to execute the major shake-up required to stop the heartbreaking results the state's kids so often get from the agency.

The advent of a majority female legislature is an event worth celebrating but if New Mexicans were (or are) expecting women to act differently than other politicians, CYFD is their answer. 

MLG FOR TRUMP?

NM GOP Chairman Steve Pearce fires off a piece of sarcasm that hits the funny bone:

Governor Lujan Grisham signed New Mexico on to the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact that swears a state’s Electoral College delegates to the winner of the national popular vote. Will she advocate for conceding NM's delegates to Trump? 

Concede our five electoral college votes to Trump? MLG would be as likely to do that as going duck hunting with Martin Heinrich. 

BOFFO TURNOUT

Santa Fe County Clerk Katharine Clark comes with this eyebrow raiser:

Santa Fe County achieved a voter turnout of over 74%, far surpassing the state average of 67%. A critical factor in this success was the county’s strategic voter turnout campaign, which encouraged early and absentee voting. 

As a result, more than 78% of voters cast their ballots early or by absentee, reducing Election Day wait times and ensuring smooth operations. 

Will we see those stats in campaign literature for a Clark Secretary of State candidacy in 2026?

WRONG NUMBER

We picked up on some erroneous (or premature) numbers from Politico regarding McKinley county. 

The presidential vote in McKinley, according to the latest unofficial results, has Harris receiving 61 percent to Trump's 36 percent. The number published earlier had the race there much closer. 

However, the article's point that Trump did exceedingly well in the heavy Native American county compared to 2020 holds up. Four years ago Biden received 68 percent there and Trump only 29 percent.   

NOB HILL CLOSURES  

A reader comments on news of the closing of a number of businesses in ABQ's Nob Hill neighborhood:

Joe, I followed a link in one of your recent articles to another story about business owners faulting the mayor for recent business closures. I love those intrepid warrior-saints, battling the forces of anti-business evil! Whenever a business succeeds, its due to the indefatigable entrepreneurial energy of the owner. When a business closes, it's the government's fault--no matter the procession of tax cuts and corporate subsidies the Chamber of Commerce crowd has won. Ha! 

We welcome your emails of musings, comments, criticisms and existential angst.

This is the Home of New Mexico Politics.        

Trump and Musk

With Donald Trump and Elon Musk breathing down their necks, state officials announced a seemingly abrupt change in policy and finally agreed to jump start high speed satellite delivery for tens of thousands of internet-deprived New Mexicans.

We and a number of our readers have been pounding the table for such a pivot because of the agonizingly slow ramp up of service to so many rural areas.

It apparently took Trump and his alliance with Musk, owner of Starlink, the company driving satellite internet ,and new FCC Chairman Brendan Carr. Carr is determined to approve roadblocked federal funding including $886 million for Starlink.

The state has now moved off the dime:

Whatever it took, New Mexico is about to take a major step forward. Years of waiting for expensive fiber to be buried in the ground to serve remote locations could be history:

The Office of Broadband Expansion and Access announced:

(OBAE) will call on the Legislative Finance Committee to provide $70 million in nonrecurring funds to expand high-speed internet. . . The request will create a near-term affordable pathway for many New Mexicans to access high-speed internet, particularly in rural and hard-to-reach parts of the state. . . There are approximately 95,000 locations in New Mexico that are in areas eligible for satellite service. . .The $70 million. . .would go toward a proposed initiative called Accelerate Connect NM, which would subsidize the cost of connecting to satellite high-speed internet service for qualifying unserved or underserved households. 

Accelerate Connect NM will bridge the accessibility gap for tens of thousands of New Mexicans while multi-year broadband infrastructure, such as fiber, is being built out across the state. “Our funding request reflects the short-term needs for connectivity and affordability, while advancing dozens of projects that will deliver on the long-term needs of the State,” said Drew Lovelace, Acting Director of OBAE. “Nobody in New Mexico should lack high-speed internet. Accelerate Connect NM will be vital to achieving inclusivity for rural homes and businesses.” 

We couldn't have said it better ourselves and legislators, we believe, will be happy to agree. We can only urge Sen. Munoz and others not to reduce the ask for this most necessary program.

We rejoice in the decision because it will be life-changing for thousands of young New Mexicans struggling to keep pace with educational opportunities, improve social relationships and give a boost to businesses that have been unable to connect. 

The choice of Starlink as the vendor would have to be approved by the state but they are the main provider and leader. There is also Jeff Bezos' Project Kuiper offering the satellite connections. 

Starlink is promoting satellite service for $120 per month with hardware to set it up going for $349.00.

$70 million in state funding would be more than a drop in the bucket. It is a substantial investment in satellite technology whose speeds are predicted to only get faster in the years ahead. 

NO EXCUSES

FCC Chair Brendan Carr

If the FCC frees up roadblocked federal funding, as now expected, more funds could be rolled out. 

The state "has been working on the grant program to award $675 million in state awards through the federal Broadband Equity Access and deployment (BEAD) program." 

There are simply no excuses left to bring our internet technology fully into the 21st century with satellite a cornerstone of that effort rather than an afterthought.

The state's decision to front-run the Trump administration will preempt an all-out attack on the foot-dragging pace of delivering broadband. The very areas where Trump outperformed in the presidential election--Hispanic and Native American dominated rural counties---will benefit greatly from the decision.

If Trump wants to take credit, that's fine. In fact, he and Musk deserve some love for the breakthrough even from the Democrats--who finally saw the satellite lights way up in the beautiful New Mexico sky.

This is the Home of New Mexico Politics.        

State Rep. Gail "Missy" Armstrong is the newly elected state House Minority Leader and she may fulfill that old adage of being "the right person at the right time."

She has the chance to deescalate harsh rhetoric over social issues and have her party concentrate on the meat and potatoes that helped Trump break into traditional Democratic constituencies here and cut his statewide loss to to Harris to 6.01 points (updated figures). 

As we blogged post-election, that's the best showing in the state by a GOP presidential nominee since 2004.

Localizing such a national trend is like scaling Wheeler Peak in January but it's either climb or die for the R's.

Armstrong, first elected in 2016, is a pillar of the Republican business establishment. She and her husband Dale Armstrong own TLC, the plumbing and air conditioning powerhouse that has made possible their standing as top donors to Republican campaigns.

She has shown a collaborative bent in her service on the Legislative Finance Committee and has championed rural healthcare for her sprawling NM District 49, centered in Socorro and the largest House district in the state. She says as leader she will be prioritizing the troubled CYFD.

She hit the right tone upon her election if she chooses to pursue a broadening of her party:

I am committed to focusing on the areas of common ground that unite rather than divide us. Only together can we make lasting change here in New Mexico. I look forward to leading the Caucus forward with common sense legislation that improves every life here. . . 

Unlike her immediate predecessors, Armstrong should be able to talk with the Democratic Governor and legislative leadership. 

The Republican opportunity as a result of the election is to rebrand the state GOP as a party with appeal to the majority-minority voters they long ago lost. Some of those voters have signaled they are looking for a different path.

Armstrong will be the first woman leader of the House Republicans. That's notable but the more important history Armstrong could help forge--if she has the character and resolve--is to move her party from quasi-permanent exile to a capture of voters who leaped to their side on Election Day.

SIDEBAR

The full results of Saturday's House GOP caucus elections include a leadership post for Rebecca Dow, who reclaimed her old House seat Nov. 5:

The House Republican Caucus unanimously elected new leadership. Representative Gail Armstrong (District 49) was elected as the new Republican Leader, Representative Alan Martinez (District 23) as the new Republican Whip, and Representative Rebecca Dow (District 38) as the new Caucus Chair. 

Here's another wrap on the Senate and House leadership elections.

HOUSE LEADERSHIP

Rep. Szcepanski (Journal, Moore)

On the other side of the aisle, House Democrats again chose Rep. Javier Martinez as their speaker, a choice that will be ratified by the full House in January.

Martinez,who launched his career as an unabashed progressive, has now leaned into liberal pragmatism as his hold on statewide leadership firms. The difference is an accommodation of views rather than strict ideological obedience. 

Rep. Reena Szcepanski of Santa Fe fought off a challenge from fellow Santa Fean Linda Serrato to become House Majority Leader, the post being vacated by the retiring Rep. Gail Chasey. This is one of the few public signs of some competition among the House progressives.

Moderate ABQ Dem Day Hochman-Vigil was chosen by the Dem caucus as Majority Whip, giving the Dems a mixture of philosophies at the top. She defeated ABQ's Charlotte Little for the position which Szczepanski had held. 

(Hochman-Vigil appeared to make a play for more progressive support as she came with an op-ed faulting Republicans on transgender rights just days before the vote.)

The Caucus came with a statement that recognized the discussion of tax cuts for lower income households:

In the 2025 Session, House Democrats will focus on improving community safety, lowering taxes for working families, ensuring all children get the education and opportunities they deserve, expanding access to healthcare, including behavioral healthcare, lowering the cost of housing, and continuing to build an economy that works for all

Speaker Martinez and other Dems don't want that tax territory ceded to the Republicans.

SENATE DEMOCRATS 

Sen. Wirth

The Senate Democratic Caucus Saturday kept the same leadership for the next two years with Sen. Peter Wirth again chosen as Majority Leader, Sen. Michael Padilla as Majority Whip and Sen. Mimi Stewart as President Pro Tem which will be voted on by the full Senate in January. Sen. Leo Jaramillo was picked as Senate Majority Caucus Chair.

The House members, up again for election in two years, and the Governor, now an official lame duck, have cause for concern with the new national environment. 

They have failed to fix CYFD, deliver better results from PED and to demand a more robust crime response from the city of ABQ while getting stuck in political quicksand.

These failures are in addition to of the impatience of certain voters with economic circumstances while abortion and other social issues gobble up the oxygen. 

Left unresolved, the aforementioned list could be the backbone of a Republican campaign to take back the Governor's office in 2026, if a competitive candidate runs..

Senate Republicans decided their new leadership last week, including choosing Farmington Sen. Bill Sharer as Minority Leader. 

This is the Home of New Mexico Politics.        

There will be a Democratic reaction to the Trump presidential win when the Legislature meets in January. Wall-Leaners say a proposal first given voice here calling for tax relief for lower income New Mexicans is in the works on the D side. It will come in the wake of many Hispanic voters in the state going over to the Trump side with the economy being a central concern for the move.

It was suggested here that earners reporting less than $45,000 in annual income owe no state income tax and that the cut could easily be covered by the enormous surpluses piling up from the oil and gas boom. What the specific Dem bill will propose is not clear yet--but one is coming. 

Jeff Apodaca, whose NM Project pushes for more Hispanic representation in state offices, comes with this analysis of the Trump win:

Hilary Clinton gave us Donald Trump for the first time The progressives have given us Donald Trump for a second time! The progresses have pushed Latino and black men out of Dem party. I'm not saying they love Trump, they're just voting Republican because of the progressive Dems. 

Apodaca confirms that he is mulling over a race for ABQ mayor next year and should have a decision in January.

Reader Freddie Lopez adds:

Legislative Republicans should make their focus eliminating taxes on all Social Security income as well as eliminating the state income tax on certain households during the session. Many Hispanic voters are citing inflation as one of their main concerns. By Republicans addressing the economic uneasiness that voters have, it would also make the Democrats talking points about Republicans wanting to eliminate abortion moot because their priority is the economy, not abortion. 

The Democrats could beat the R's to the punch, if they can see it in their progressive hearts to directly recognize the concerns of lower income households for a change and give abortion, climate change and transgender rights a little rest. 

NEW GOP LEADERS

Farmington Senator Bill Sharer has been in the Senate for nearly 25 years but can he moderate his often ultra-conservative tone now that he is the new state Senate GOP Minority Leader? From the GOP caucus: 

The Senate Republican Caucus unanimously elected new leadership with Senator Bill Sharer (R-Farmington) as the new Minority Leader, Senator Pat Woods (R-Broadview) as the new Minority Whip, and Senator David Gallegos (R-Eunice) as the new Caucus Chair.  “I am honored to be chosen for the position of Caucus Leader,” said Senator Sharer. "I intend to usher in an era of unity and conservative principles.The overtaxed and hard-working men and women of New Mexico will have a voice in this caucus. Now is not the time to sit idly by."

So Bill, show us the tax cut for all those non Republicans not pulling down six figures.

TOM RUTHERFORD

Tom Rutherford was a political boy genius who grew into an elder statesman of La Politica. 

He was only 25 when first elected to the state Senate from ABQ in 1972. He went on to serve there for 24 years, until 1996, when he departed with the title of Senate Majority Leader. 

Rutherford's defining legacy was probably outside of politics. He was a radio announcer at KOB radio in 1972 when he co-founded what today is known as the ABQ International Balloon Fiesta. That event has become one of the world's major tourist attractions, bringing pleasure to untold millions, and an integral part of the state economy. 

That early act was tough to top but Rutherford went on to earn a law degree in 1982 while building his 24 year stretch as a state senator, which he followed with two terms on the Bernalillo County Commission. 

Blessed with a velvety baritone, a keen intellect and a political pedigree nurtured by his father who also served in the legislature, Rutherford brought star power to the Senate. But his one and only effort to go statewide did not take. The young senator lost a battle for the 1978 Democratic lieutenant governor nomination.  

After nearly 30 years in elective office, in 2004 he switched to the lobbying arena, joining with his son Jeremy to form the successful Rutherford Group.

Rutherford's health failed a number of years ago and forced him to withdraw from public life.

It was those rising star years that former NM House Speaker Raymond Sanchez recalled when he informed us of Rutherford's death that took place Tuesday evening:

He was an outstanding New Mexican and member of the Senate. Senate President Ike Smalley (a conservative) christened him Lancelot when he first arrived. Ike asked me to please try to get Tom and Senator Manny Aragon (another ambitious rising star) to be more cooperative with him. Ike thought I could work it out. Not a chance! Tom will be missed. 

Tom Rutherford was 77.

THE BOTTOM LINES

Mayoral candidate Eddy Aragon tells us he is a registered Republican again after announcing in a news release he had switched to independent. When he becomes a liberal Democrat we’ll let you know that, too.  

This is the Home of New Mexico Politics.        

Business group ad

A crime beat that never seems to pause; a continued flow of fentanyl; 100 murders a year; APD mired in an historic bribery scandal sapping police morale and public confidence; a downtown still downtrodden; a Nob Hill that can't find its economic footing; a freeway system that appears to have been ceded to F-1 racers and a growing homeless problem.

Yes, there's a wheelbarrow full of issues for wanna be ABQ mayors to campaign on as the page turns on Election '24 and the '25 mayoral battle creeps closer.

Last Tuesday's mayoral elections on the West Coast have certainly grabbed the attention of Mayor Tim Keller as he prepares to campaign for an unprecedented third consecutive four year term. 

Rejections of progressive mayors in San Francisco and Portland could be an early warning for him as a more conservative environment envelopes the nation with the election of Donald Trump. 

In San Francisco:

Mayor London Breed conceded her quest for a second full term after Daniel Lurie, a nonprofit founder and Levi Strauss heir, held on to a steady lead through 14 rounds of ranked-choice voting. . .Lurie pitched himself as an outsider, betting that his lack of experience would be more boon than burden during a deeply unsettled time for the city. It paid off. With his victory, residents appeared to be sending a resounding message: They were so fed up with the status quo that the best person to address the city’s most dire problems was someone who has never held office. Lurie held 56 percent of the vote to nearly 44 percent for Breed, who has presided during a period of increased homelessness, public drug use and a downtown business exodus, all of which the pandemic supercharged.

And in Portland:

Voters elected political outsider Keith Wilson as their new mayor, following a campaign in which he capitalized on years of growing frustration over homeless encampments, open drug use and quality of life concerns. . .Wilson. . .ran on an ambitious pledge to end unsheltered homelessness within a year of taking office. The Portland native says he will accomplish this in part by increasing the number of nighttime walk-in emergency shelters. . . His message. . . resonated in a city where surveys. . .have shown homelessness as a top issue.  “It’s time to end unsheltered homelessness and open drug use, and it’s time to restore public safety in Portland. Voters aren’t interested in pointing fingers. They just want us to get things done.”He said.

There are early signs that Mayor Keller may try to paint ABQ's troubles as partly a perception problem, similar to what national Democrats tried with the economy but only to lose the White House and Congress.

Not that the city is in a bubble of entirely bad news. 

Innovative plans to revive downtown and reduce homelessness are in the works, including the eventual opening of the delayed and costly Gateway Center. Basic and vital city services such as water, garbage, road repairs and the Sunport seem satisfactory to the public. 

Still ABQ remains adrift, too riddled with crime, little population or economic growth and housing and rental prices continuing their climb (Nob Hill biz closures are a sign of that).

But it will be the bitter stew of crime served up to voters as the main course when the campaign commences in January for the November election. 

JUMPING IN 

Eddy Aragon

Conservative radio talk show host Eddy Aragon, 49, who ran for mayor in 2021 and finished third behind Keller and then-Sheriff Manny Gonzales but managed 18 percent of the vote, says he's coming back for another run.

He is a no longer a Republican but an independent, citing the failure of the divided NM GOP to put points on the election scorecard. 

He did not loudly support Trump this year as he did in 2020 but says Trump's election is a major reason for his comeback attempt:

Americans and New Mexicans value strong leadership, regardless of party affiliation. No one predicted that Trump would come within a few points of Kamala Harris in New Mexico (or) within a few points of Harris with the Hispanic vote nationwide. Hard times demand strong leaders. The hard times caused by the Biden/Harris and Keller administrations have made voters re-examine their voting habits. Is voting for a Democratic mayor worth our city being ranked worst in crime among America’s 50 biggest cities? Of course not. Albuquerque voters want a return to common-sense leadership that will end our city’s crime plague. 

Aragon's campaign also took aim at a favorite conservative target but a policy still popular in a Democratic city:

Keller’s declaration of Albuquerque as a sanctuary city in 2018. . .worsened Albuquerque’s immigration crisis and allowed the city to be overrun by violent drug gangs, leading to more than 1,600 tragic deaths from fentanyl during Keller’s two terms. 

The mayoral math has Keller's backers hoping at least one more conservative joins the race and splits up that vote as occurred in 2021 when Keller won a majority of Democrats and was elected with 56 percent of the vote. But Aragon is hoping that his candidacy will help clear out other conservatives from running.

The Mayor's hope for an easy glidepath could collide with his low approval ratings and the concerns over crime. Will those factors generate a serious Democratic challenge (or challengers) to the incumbent and give ABQ a spirited battle over its future?

This is the Home of New Mexico Politics.        

E-mail your news and comments. (newsguy@yahoo.com

Interested in reaching New Mexico's most informed audience? Advertise here. 

Old Man Gloom

For Dems overdosing on election anxiety and angst, how about this: the Santa Fe Kiwanis Club makes more history and has a special burning of Zozobra to cast off their election gloom. Does January 20, 2025 for the "Second Burning" sound about right? Or January 6? (Free admission for any Republican with an up-to date driver's license.)

Santa Fe is an appropriate site for Democrats to mourn the national results. The county gave Harris her biggest win among the state's 33 counties with 73 percent of their vote. 

Her worst county was Lea in SE oil country where Trump won with 80 percent.  

Yvette Herrell's unsuccessful run  this year against Dem Rep. Gabe Vasquez was her fourth time as the GOP nominee for the southern congressional seat. She has only won once. Was '24 her final outing? It could be for her but the GOP could keep up the fight. 

The race was only a nail-biter in the sense that the late returns heavily favoring Vasquez in Bernalillo and Dona Ana counties did not come in until late in the evening, keeping the race close. 

But at the end he won by double-digits in the raw vote beating Herrell in unofficial returns 136,733 to 126,400 or 10,333 votes. 

That's a victory of  52.0 to 48.0 percent and a far cry from '22 when Herrell closed the gap to 1,350 votes. 

These results reveal the "lean Democratic" nature of the new district. However, the race seems close enough that Republicans might take another shot in 2026, an off-year election when turnout will drop and presumably give the GOP a better chance.

BERNCO AND DONA

This year the Dem leaning precincts in Bernalillo and Dona Ana made up 57 percent of the 263,000 votes cast in the sprawling district and and Vasquez prevailed in both. 

In Bernalillo county, the Westside and South Valley precincts went for him 59.4 to 40.6 percent. Vasquez received 40,321 votes to Herrell's 27,591, a 15,730 vote pick up. 

In Dona Ana he won 57.6 to 42.4 percent or 47,458 to 35,002, a pick-up of 12,456. 

Herrell trimmed those numbers in more rural areas but came up over 10,000 short. 

This corner and others said before the election that if the Dems won the district again this year, the Republicans might give up in the future.

But for that happen Vasquez probably would have needed to match the true Dem lean of the district which is six percent in his favor. 

By finishing well but not decisively he left the door open for possibly another rigorous challenge in two years.

INSIDE THE RESULTS

With the dust settled on Election '24, we  call on one of our Senior Alligators (of the Dem variety) for down-the-middle analysis of where state politics stands:

The Democratic Party here and nationally is no longer the party of working people. They lost that moniker through their own negligence.

Here in New Mexico the day goes to Sen. Heinrich and Rep. Vasquez.

Republican Yvette Herrell, running against Vasquez, didn’t have a distinguishing message and didn’t have the mojo of the past. As Trump would say, she was “low energy.” 

Heinrich was smart to run up the score on Domenici (he won by 9.8 percent) and is looking more like a front-runner for Governor. 

Assuming he becomes Ranking Member on the Senate Energy Committee, he will have a national voice in combating Trump on energy and environmental policy—that will help him with fund-raising and building a stronger profile. 

(Sec. of Interior) Deb Haaland is still a force will be out of a job soon. Does she have the energy to run or has Heinrich effectively bullied her out of the Governor’s race?

People would be mistaken to think that there will be some resurgence of Republicans in this state. They provided another lackluster performance. So the Dems have every opportunity to step up and re-fashion their party. 

Will they lean into their tendency to go left and continue an anti-Trump rampage or will they start talking about the issues that matter to people like jobs and crime? In NM will they finally make wholesale changes to education and health care? 

MLG can put in a heroic last two years on these issues or she can just give up and fade into the ether.

We would add to that interesting analysis that BernCo District Attorney Sam Bregman is now another possible Dem Guv hopeful. 

Also, now that Haaland will be out as cabinet secretary in January, does she announce a Guv candidacy soon after to try to keep Heinrich out? A close supporter of Haaland declares, "everywhere Deb goes New Mexicans are asking her to run."

HISPANIC SURGE

An out of touch Democratic party or sexism and misogyny. or both? More on the Trump Hispanic surge:

In 2020, Latino men went for President Biden over Trump by a 23 point margin, 59 percent to 36 percent. Four years later, they flipped, voting for Trump over Harris by a 12 point margin, 55 percent to 43 percent.

The gigantic swing among those voters contrasted with a more modest swing among Latina women, whose 69 percent backing for Biden in 2020 ticked down to 60 percent backing Harris.

Explanations vary for exactly why the shift occurred among Latino men. Pro-Trump voices contend that the president-elect’s economic message resonated with Latino voters generally, and that perceived Democratic overreach on social and cultural issues such as trans rights might have alienated Latino men in particular.

A different, harsher thesis is that sexism and racism might have been the catalysts for the fall-off in support for a female Democratic nominee of Black and Indian descent. 

Sexism and racism? Hardly: 

About 7 in 10 Hispanic voters were “very concerned” about the cost of food and groceries, slightly more than about two thirds of voters overall, according to AP VoteCast, a survey of more than 120,000 voters nationwide. Nearly two thirds of Hispanic voters said that they were “very concerned” about their housing costs, compared with about half of voters overall.

THE BOTTOM LINES

As usual there was a bit of uncertainty Election Night on where the balance of power in the state legislature settled and that was reflected in our first blog report early Wednesday. 

When all the votes were in Republicans picked up one seat in the state House where the Dems will still have a large majority of 44 to 26. 

There was a gain of one GOP seat in the state Senate. The party split there will now be 26 Democrats and 16 Republicans.

This is the Home of New Mexico Politics.        

NYT photo

He didn't carry the state but by turning in the best New Mexico performance by a Republican presidential candidate in 20 years Donald Trump gave his party here the pen and paper to start writing a new narrative to get itself out of the basement. Whether they seize the opportunity is up in the air.

Trump was losing the state to VP Harris early Wednesday 51.56 percent to 46.01 percent. (All election results here.)

That losing margin of 5.5 percent is the best GOP presidential showing since George W. Bush carried the state by a fraction of a percent over Democrat John Kerry in 2004. Trump appeared especially empowered by Hispanics and independents.

While the GOP was taking note of Trump's unexpected strength, the progressive wing of the Democratic party received a wake up call with the message that they are overdue for some navel gazing over how they have been handling economic and crime issues.

For MLG Election Night was a career ender. There will be no big job in DC with a President Harris but another two years of mud wrestling with the legislature. Her private sector prospects seem much brighter.

The disastrous national results for the Dems in which Trump was prevailing in both the popular vote and the Electoral College was made possible by attracting voters of color to his coalition. 

In New Mexico it appeared it was Hispanic Democratic men leading the march away from their party, joined by a multitude of independents, many of them angry and dissatisfied with their economic circumstances and runaway crime while Democratic party elites take little notice of them.

Veteran political analyst, attorney and former legislator Greg Payne messaged us Election Day, predicting that Trump would win with 312 electoral votes. That number looks close to being correct. 

Earlier he had warned Democrats that Trump's Halloween visit to New Mexico was a direct play to inflate his numbers with Hispanics here and elsewhere. It worked. 

So now what? Payne says:

Trump has shown Republicans how to get back in the game. There was so much fluidity and cross over voting with this electorate, with gender and ethnicity breaking usual patterns. The party now needs a new face for the Governor in '26. That means no Susana Martinez or Nella Domenici or the forces associated with them, but someone from the outside, someone new and exciting who can cobble together the coalition that Trump did and build on it. 

THIRD FOR HEINRICH

Heinrich (Journal)

While Democrats ached over the Trump national win and his overachieving here, Dem Sen. Martin Heinrich had a good night, handily defeating Republican Nella Domenici and winning a third term in the US Senate. 

That term, however, won't be as much fun as his party last night lost the Senate majority to the GOP. That might have Heinrich increasing his interest of running for Governor in '26.

Heinrich ran three points ahead of Harris, an unusual occurrence and another measure of Trump's prowess. Heinrich ran up the score against Domenici, 55 to 45 percent. 

Domenici had refused to embrace Trump until the very end of her campaign. It turned out to be the wrong move. 

US HOUSE 

Rep. Gabe Vasquez had to wait until late on Election Night for final returns from Dona Ana and Bernalillo counties to secure a second term in the US House as he defeated Republican Yvette Herrell 52 to 48, her second loss in a row to him.

Republican analysts on our KANW radio panel said she will not be their party's candidate again. 

Vasquez may stay in the minority in the House as it appeared the GOP chances of holding on to their majority were improving.

US Reps Melanie Stansbury and Teresa Leger Fernandez led the Democratic ticket in percentage terms, each getting 56 percent against their opponents in their safe districts. 

LEGISLATIVE ACTION

Republicans picked up one seat in the state House but the Dems will still have a large majority of 44 to 26. There was a gain of one GOP seat in the Senate. The party split will be 26 Democrats and 16 Republicans. 

(We've updated these numbers from earlier reports that were based on incomplete returns.)

Rebecca Dow defeated incumbent Dem Tara Jaramillo in a T or C area race and was already being mentioned as possibly the next House Minority Leader as Rep. Rod Montoya plans to bow out. 

Republican Nicole Chavez won the only ABQ state House seat held by the GOP, pushing away a stiff challenge from the Dems. 

Democrat Michelle Sandoval lost her second attempt to take a House seat in Rio Rancho District 57 that GOP Rep. Jason Harper is leaving. She trailed Republican Catherine Cullen by over 300 votes in the wee hours. 

Senator Martin Hickey, in a closely watched race in ABQ's NE Heights, defeated Republican Wayne Yevoli.

Turnout for the '24 general election was in line with past presidential years with about 67 percent of registered voters or some 920,000 casting ballots when everything is tallied.  

Thanks to all of our guest experts on KANW Election Night and to all who tuned in.

Reporting from Albuquerque, I'm Joe Monahan.

This is the Home of New Mexico Politics.        

Join us for a New Mexico tradition, Election Night on KANW 89.1 FM and KANW.COM. We start at 6:30 and will have it all from DC to Deming--and with the exclusive insider info you've come to expect. See you tonight!

Who better to sum up the feelings of the nation about this election than retired CBS news anchorman Dan Rather who helmed Election Night coverage for decades. From Austin, the now 93 year old Rather writes: 

Save your sanity. A Washington Post headline Monday proclaimed: “The Election is Uncertain, But It Might Not Be Close.” This takes covering one’s backside to an art form. With equivocation like that, no wonder everyone’s so anxious and exhausted, spiraling in a vortex of doomscrolling. The point is, no one knows anything for certain.  

Besides the uncertainty there's the anxiety that this election seems to have induced more than most. The Atlantic reports: 

This year, Americans of all political loyalties are finding the election anxiety-inducing: A recent survey survey from the American Psychological Association found that 69 percent of polled adults rated the U.S. presidential election as a significant source of stress, a major jump from 52 percent in 2016 (and a slight bump from 68 percent in 2020).

Well, the anxiety ridden can always look forward to an Election Night party, if so inclined. State Democrats will host one at Isleta Resort and Casino for all their candidates, supporters and volunteers. The party's big names all plan on attending and presumably cheering a Trump defeat--at least in New Mexico if not the nation. They include: 

Senator Martin Heinrich, Congresswoman Teresa Leger Fernandez, Congresswoman Melanie Stansbury, Albuquerque Mayor Tim Keller, DPNM Chair Jessica Velasquez, Governor Michelle Lujan Grisham and NM House Speaker Javier Martínez,

GOP US Senate candidate Nella Domenici has been heavily promoting her Election Night Watch Party. She's getting a head start, opening the doors to the event at Hotel ABQ in Old Town at 6 p.m. Her bash has become the de facto party place as the state party is not having an official gathering.

If Nella loses, will she then turn around and run for NM Governor in 2026? Maybe she'll take the proceeds from the busy bar tonight and start a new campaign kitty.

As for yours truly we've known where we will spend Election Night for, well, decades--on the airwaves of public radio station KANW-89.1 FM and kanw.com. This is the tenth presidential election we will anchor  for the station.

So it's that time again, an Election Night that will have hearts pounding and, as Dan Rather says, so filled with tension that it will make your fingernails sweat. 

I love America--no matter how crazy it gets--and we're ready to go.

ELECTION NIGHT COVERAGE

Rep. Hochman-Vigil

The thing about this Election Night is you can't wait for it to start and you can't wait for it to end. 

Voters yearn for a resolution of the months-long and achingly close (at least according to the polls) presidential race as well as the lengthy and advertising-packed congressional races here. Well, tonight is their night.

We'll launch our live, continuous wall-to-wall coverage on KANW 89.1 FM and kanw.com at 6:30 with the latest results from the presidential contest in the early closing states. 

Soon after 7 p.m.--when the polls close--a tsunami of early results will tell the tale in most of the key state races. 

That's when the heavy lifting of analysis and reporting comes into play and once again we'll have a powerhouse panel to dice and slice Election '24 as only political connoisseurs can do. 

This year it is a number of state House races that are the political enigma. We're bringing back three term District 15 ABQ Dem state Rep. Day Hochman-Vigil to keep you informed on how the chamber is shaping up for the next legislative session in January. She's an accomplished attorney who is an expert in aviation and space law and chairs the House Transportation Committee. She also has a degree in Italian studies and French Language. That could come in handy since figuring out La Politica can sometimes be like learning a foreign tongue.

He's arguably the state's foremost expert on election law. And boy, do we ever need that at our traditional roundtable tonight. ABQ Dem state Senator Daniel Ivey-Soto (District 15) has sponsored and written many of the laws that guide today's state elections. The attorney has chaired the Senate Rules Committee and is leaving the senate this year after three terms. His commentary will be a must listen for political junkies and maybe even a few civilians.

The song says "You're Gonna Miss Me When I'm Gone." And so it is with the liberal lion of the state senate, Jerry Oritz y Pino. He's retiring from his District 12 seat after five terms at the Roundhouse where his always active and passionate voice on behalf of disadvantaged citizens gives him a legacy that will be built on by new generations. Politically, the Senate has been mired in intrigue while the House has been the new muscle in town. We'll again call on Jerry to see how the arm-twisting will play out as voters put some new faces in place. (And we might even throw him a retirement party with chicharrones.) 

State Republicans have been in a dark tunnel so long they've developed night vision. Longtime GOP operative Jamie Estrada will join us again (as he did back in 2012) and is assigned to interrupt your loquacious anchorman if he spots any light at the end of that tunnel as results roll in. Estrada has been working feversily on this year's key legislative races as a PAC consultant. His Republican bona fides include a stint in the Bush administration's Commerce Department. He'll ceratinly get down to business tonight.

Abeyta

Sisto Abeyta has been around a while. He started hanging our at our Election Night broadcasts in the 90's when he was an aide to a state Senator. The Valencia county native long ago graduated from that role to become one of the state's most prominent lobbyists as well as a savvy campaign consultant. He prides himself on being a keeper of the historic flame of La Politica that will again burn brightly this evening. If need be, he says he'll burn the Midnight Oil to call every legislative contest. Hey, no pressure Sisto.

Robert Aragon was the second youngest person ever elected to the state legislature when he achieved the feat in the 80's at the age of 21. Back then he was a conservative Dem but then became a Republican who is a former chairman of the Bernalillo County GOP as well as a onetime First Vice-Chair of the NMGOP. The longtime ABQ attorney and his family (his dad was former ABQ state Rep. Bennie Aragon) bring a wealth of political history to the broadcast. And what's an Election Night if not history?

We'll have other special guests who will add their expertise to the mix as we again bring you the most up-to-the-minute results and the best analysis of New Mexico politics you will find anywhere (plus a lot of fun). 

We look forward to having you join us for this New Mexico Election Night tradition tonight tomorrow on KANW and kanw.com at 6:30 p.m. See you then.

This is the Home of New Mexico Politics.       

Our Election Eve Special kicks off at 5 p.m. today. Hear it at KANW 89.1 FM and at kanw.com.

The suspense of New Mexico Campaign '24 will be resolved quickly if Donald Trump is elected tomorrow night but if VP Kamala Harris wins, the suspense will only be beginning.

That's because if Harris makes it to the White House the state could very likely see a new Governor take the helm here next year. 

Also, for  the first time in history, three New Mexicans could conceivably serve together in a presidential cabinet. (Heck, two would be a record.)

While the outcome of the major races here remains quite predictable as the state continues to wade in a sea of blue, the question of the state's future leadership is essentially on the ballot.

Gov. Lujan Grisham continues to earn mentions that she is bound for a high-level position--possibly the cabinet--in the administration of a President Harris:

Biden vetted the New Mexico governor for the Health and Human Servies post four years ago, so she is well known to Harris’ team and a friend of the vice president, who officiated her 2022 wedding and initially considered her as a potential running mate. Her experience serving as New Mexico’s health secretary before her election to Congress aligns with a Cabinet post at HHS, and her outspokenness on reproductive rights since the Supreme Court’s overturning of Roe v. Wade has echoed Harris’ own speeches on the matter.

Not only is MLG a possible cabinet pick under Harris but former southern NM US Rep. Xochitl Torres Small, Deputy Secretary of the US Department of Agriculture, is now seen by the crystal ball gazers as a top contender to become Secretary of Agriculture should Harris prevail. 

And Mike Connor, a native of Taos Pueblo who leads the US Army Corp of Engineers, is a possible Harris pick for Secretary of Interior should Sec. Deb Haaland leave and launch a '26 Guv run and/or be replaced by Harris. About him:

An old hand in policy circles around Washington, Connor held the No. 2 spot at Interior during the Obama administration and was a runner-up for the top Interior spot under Biden.

THE XTS FILE

Torres Small

Torres Small, raised in Las Cruces, has been a rising star in state politics from the start. Smart, able and charismatic, the Democrat was unable to hold on to the then conservative southern congressional district for more than one term. But her talent won her the job of Deputy Secretary of Agriculture under Biden. 

Her expertise in rural issues, experience on the Hill and becoming the first woman of color to be Secretary of Agriculture puts her at the top of possibles, according to the DC chattering class. 

There's no disagreement here. We would add that if there were to be a vacancy in one of our US Senate positions, she would also belong at the top of that list of possible replacements.

HOWIE'S SUSPENSE

The suspense for Lt. Governor Howie Morales is 20 on a scale of 10 as he would become the state's next Democratic Governor should MLG depart. He is mostly an unknown to the New Mexican public, having been below the radar for the nearly six years he has served with MLG.

Whether he would seek the governorship in his own right in '26 is unknown but as a former state senator from the Silver City area, he is a creature of the legislature who could have better luck with lawmakers than the Governor has had of late. But the flash take from the Roundhouse Wall-Leaners is that Morales could be in danger from a legislature freed from MLG and that could run roughshod over him. 

What agenda Morales, a professional educator, would pursue as the state continues to pile up mammoth reserves from the energy boom is unknown. That's what makes for more suspense--if Harris wins.  

TRUMP AND NM

President Trump had no New Mexicans in his cabinet during his term and no local GOP names appear to be circulating as possibles should he be elected tomorrow night. 

But Trump's first term as president was not hurtful to the state. And when it came to the military-industrial complex--the military bases and Sandia and Los Alamos National Labs--their budgets grew robustly as well as their employment,

Bizarre rumors that the conservative Project 2025 plan could mean major cutbacks to the nonnuclear portion of the labs' budgets does not hold up under scrutiny.

Such lab cuts would require both White House and congressional approval even as support for their work today is at a bipartisan high point. 

Again, Trump's record as president lends no credence to the scare and no congressional representatives who deal with national security have raised the matter of budget slashing.

Ditto for the state's bases including ABQ's Kirtland Air Force Base, home to 23,000 employees, many active military. A shutdown scare in the 90's was thwarted and there hasn't been another since. The standing of Kirtland remains sturdy. While a shutdown scare last year at at Cannon AFB in Clovis did mean some cutbacks, the base came out strongly positioned to continue its mission indefinitely. 

As usual, New Mexico has much to worry about in its own backyard including an ABQ crime wave that now appears to be spreading to our state capitol but the state's financial position in Washington--no matter who controls the presidency--appears positive on the cusp of a presidential election that been gripping and grueling.

FINAL PREZ POLLING

A final batch of polling in the NM presidential race is out and reinforces the view that VP Harris will be the fifth Democratic nominee in a row--dating back to 2008--to win the race for the White House here.

SurveyUSA reports their poll from Oct. 28-31 has Harris leading Trump 50 to 44 with a margin of error of plus or minus 5.4 percent. 

The firm says that "among men, Trump leads by 6 points; among women, Harris leads by 18, a 24-point gender gap."

Their September survey had it 50 to 42 for Harris.

The mid-October ABQ Journal poll had Harris at 50 and Trump at 41. Other candidates had 5 percent and only 4 percent were undecided.  

Trump visited ABQ Oct. 31, the final day of the SurveyUSA poll and if he is getting a bump that could help him improve on his 2020 performance when he lost the state to Biden by 10.79 percent. 

Harris has been running slightly weaker in the NM polling than Biden did four years ago as Trump's performance with Hispanics, especially male Hispanics, is stronger this time.

VOTER TURNOUT

Voters like to vote early and they did it again this election, if not quite as much as 2020 when Covid kept folks away from the voting booths and preferring mail-in ballots. 

Early voting ended Saturday and the SOS reports 663,874 votes have been cast before Election Day this time. 

As usual, the majority Dems voted most with 46.2 percent of the total followed by the GOP with 36.6 and independents with 15.8 percent. 

We expect around 261,000 voters to go to the polls tomorrow to make the total presidential vote reach around 925,000 or close to 68 percent of the 1.377 million registered voters which is the percentage turnout we had in 2020. 

If so, that would mean early votes would comprise about 70 percent of all votes for president. (Final total turnout will be higher because not everyone votes for president.)

OUR ELECTION EVE SPECIAL

Join us for our live Election Eve Special today at 5 p.m. on public radio KANW 89.1 FM and kanw.com when we dare our panel to make risky predictions about the key races up for grabs tomorrow. 

That's always fun and the predictions are usually spot on. But if any of the predictors run afoul, the boo birds will greet them on Election Night. 

Our guests include ABQ state Senators Daniel Ivey-Soto and Jerry Ortiz y Pino, ABQ Rep. Day Hochman-Vigil and the dean of the state capitol political press corp, Dan Boyd of the ABQ Journal. 

So join the fun of Campaign '24 and drop by KANW 89.1 FM and kanw.com today at 5 p.m. and of course tomorrow night--Election Night--for our wall-to-wall coverage beginning at 6:30 p.m. 

Thanks for tuning in. 

This is the Home of New Mexico Politics.