Can Martin Heinrich put away Hector Balderas? Can Eric Griego have a break away day? Those are the questions at the top of the list for politics watchers preparing for that ultimate insider event--this Saturday's Dem Party preprimary convention.

It's a lot of insider baseball but it can have a major impact on a campaign's momentum and fund-raising. Take that race for the Dem nod for the US Senate seat between Rep. Heinrich and Balderas. Both are expected to easily win 20% of the delegates needed to win an official spot on the June primary ballot, but can Heinrich win 60% or more of the vote and thus put pressure on Balderas to drop his candidacy?

Hector's fund-raising is anemic and our insiders say he did not appear to show much muscle at the Bernalillo County Dem ward meetings--the prelude to the preprimary. If his delegate share does not put him within shouting distance of Heinrich, pressure will grow on him to get out and clear the way for Heinrich.

(On the R side, Lt. Governor John Sanchez dropped his bid when his campaign headed south, sparing likely nominee Heather Wilson a major challenge. Greg Sowards remains in that race. The GOP preprimary convention will be held March 17).

Insiders say while Heinrich is the heavy favorite among Bernalillo county delegates, Hector is expected to do well in northern counties like Taos and Dona Ana in the south. If he scores an unexpected surge and can then turn that into fund-raising prowess, the Senate race could be redefined. But if Heinrich comes with a big win, his camp will have a valid case that the Dems should avoid a potentially divisive primary and clear the path for him. In return, Hector, serving his second term as state auditor, can perhaps broaden his support for a future political run.

THE HOUSE SIDE

Rarely has the Dem nomination for the ABQ congressional seat been more valuable. With Obama expected to come with a big win in November in the ABQ area and our R's sources here and in Washington indicating the R'S are not keen on putting up a major fight to keep the seat, the three Dem candidates are pumped.

The expectations for Saturday's preprimary? They've shifted. At first, former ABQ Mayor Marty Chavez was seen as the default winner simply because of his superior name ID and long party involvement which could help activate an organization. But his long-standing troubles with the liberal Dem base and the indictment of his former live-in girlfriend on embezzlement charges has the insiders saying that State Sen. Eric Griego has a shot at taking first place. Bernalillo County Commissioner Michelle Lujan Grisham, joining the race later in the game, has always been seen as a third place preprimary finisher and still is. All three candidates are expected to get the 20 percent of the delegates needed to get an official spot on the June ballot.

Griego is an unabashed liberal in a year when that is very much in style with the Dem activists. Chavez has always been more popular with moderate and conservative Dems. His endorsement from Clinton was a good get, but it is Obama backers who are driving the narrative and that is where Griego is scoring.

None of the three candidates has packed much punch in the fund-raising department. A break away preprimary win by one of them--not really expected--could attract cash.

With this nomination so valuable, expect all three candidates to keep charging ahead for the nomination no matter what happens Saturday.

GET THAT 20

If a candidate at the preprimary does not get 20% of the delegates, they can still score a spot on the June ballot by gathering additional petition signatures. However, no candidate who has failed to reach 20% at the preprimary has ever won the party's nomination for the office they sought.

RHONDA RIDES OUT

Dem State Rep. Rhonda King of the legendary New Mexican political family will not seek re-election to her Santa Fe County seat. The seat has been in the family for decades, including in the hands of the late former Governor Bruce King and his son, Attorney General Gary King. Rhonda, a conservative Dem and owner of Rhonda King Realty in Stanley, has held it since 1999. She is a niece of the late Governor. The R's think they have a shot now that the well-known King is headed toward the exits. The reason she's leaving?:

I want to spend more time with my family, including my young daughter. I also look forward to continuing my service to the community, particularly my work on the Tri-County Juvenile Justice Board which provides programs to help improve the lives of youth in our communities.

Like a Senior Alligator told us, the new slogan for Santa Fe and the Legislature is: "It's just not fun anymore."

WHAT WE LEARNED

What did we learn from this week's muni elections in the state? Well, the pressure of the Bear Market continues to be felt in Santa Fe as voters watching their wallets refused to approve a bond issue for buildings and equipment for the police and fire departments. (They did approve the other bonds). And we also learned that Governor Martinez should immediately begin negotiations with Mexico to cede to them the border town of Sunland Park.

DOWN AND DIRTY?

The Independent Source PAC, a union-backed group watchdogging the Martinez administration, has its teeth in that Downs at ABQ lease deal approved by the state and is nipping again. They sent this off to the FBI:

We have developed...additional information...that raises further questions about the propriety of the awarding of the billion-dollar plus Racino contract. Andrea Goff, Susana PAC’s (Governor Martinez’s political committee run by Jay McCleskey) main fundraiser, turns out to be the daughter-in-law and business partner of State Fair Commissioner Kenneth “Buster” Goff. Andrea Goff was raising money for Susana PAC months before Martinez appointed Buster Goff to the State Fair Commission.

It appears this relationship between fundraiser Andrea Goff and Governor Martinez factored into Buster Goff’s appointment to the commission. As you may recall, Buster Goff was provided the unique ability to alter the terms of the lease allowing him to support the contract after having publicly opposed the contract. It was Buster Goff who cast the tie-breaking vote that awarded the contract to the Downs at Albuquerque...

That's the type of stuff you are used to seeing in the newspaper, but things have changed.

PORK WATCH

The Guv signed the capital outlay bill Wednesday, making a point about waste but not depriving the state of a needed shot in the arm from the construction projects in the measure. She vetoed $23 million of the pet projects approved by the legislators, but the bill approved still provides $122 million. A separate bond package will go to the voters to decide in November. It totals $139 million.

Those are pretty solid numbers, but we could double them given that the state ranks last in the nation in construction employment. We're sure the Guv has been hearing from the biz community about keeping the capital dollars flowing. Shaving $22 million makes the point that the capital outlay process needs reform, but doesn't throw the baby out with the bath water.

HONORING EDWARD

National Hispanic Cultural Center Foundation President Clara Apodaca checks in with this news regarding longtime ABQ business executive and former NM GOP Chairman Edward Lujan:

The National Hispanic Cultural Center Foundation is hosting "An Evening at the National Hispanic Cultural Center With Virginia & Edward Lujan" on May 24. The night will include a special production highlighting the Center’s five programs. Dinner co-chairs are Sherman McCorkle and Ambassador Ed Romero...

Lujan, who built the family insurance business into a state powerhouse, is now 79 and still going strong. He was a key player in starting the cultural center. We ran into him at Barelas Coffee House where he was having a friendly lunch with Apodaca, the Democratic first lady of NM from '75 to '78.

There's always bipartisanship when they trot out the enchiladas....

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Martin & Hector play nice
Now that the R's seems to have settled their Senate nomination with John Sanchez apparently dead in the water, ready to exit and pave the way for Heather Wilson, attention shifts to the Dems and their potentially spirited Senate battle between Martin Heinrich and Hector Balderas. But will it?

The two Dem Senate contenders seem happy enough together in this photo snapped over the weekend at the IBEW Union Hall in Carlsbad. What Dems want is that same pic following the June primary.

Like Lt. Governor Sanchez, who reports raising only about $100,000 in the final quarter of 2011, Balderas is cash-strapped compared to Rep. Heinrich who had $1.4 million in the bank at year's end. Hector had less than $450,000.

Dems are dreading possible nuclear warfare between the two popular politicos. Could an exit deal be brewing for State Auditor Balderas or a truce where the two agree to negative-free campaigning? That would be a rarity.

Whatever the case, state Dems are all ears as they monitor the Heinrich-Balderas relationship for signs of what's to come--or not to come. Stay tuned.

Footnotes: Pictured above is Court of Appeals candidate Victor Lopez, Heinrich, Dem southern congressional candidates Evelyn Madrid-Erhard, Court of Appeals candidate Monica Zamora and Balderas.

And we aren't ignoring GOP Senate candidate Greg Sowards, the Las Cruces day Care center owner who has largely self-financed his own campaign and who had over $600,000 banked at year's end, compared to Wilson's $1.1 million. We just haven't seen a sizable number of GOP voters or insiders unhappy with Heather's "moderate" record flocking to him.

NO BUDGET DEBACLE

She kicks up some dust, but we are learning that Governor Martinez rarely draws a line in the sand when it comes to the state budget. One totaling $5.6 billion was approved by a House committee and will get House Approval Wednesday and then be sent to the Senate. Once again there has been only minor disagreement between the GOP Governor and the leading fiscal Dems in the Legislature.

You might say that's because the Dems have a boatload of budget hawks and Susana has little to disagree with them about. Or you might say she realizes she doesn't have the votes to change much in the budget so she toes the line. And unlike a hot button issue like repealing driver's licenses for undocumented immigrants, a budget battle could get her lost in the weeds with little public sympathy. In addition, we have gone from a budget of over $6 billion down to the near $5.3 billion level. State government has shrunk--to the delight of conservatives.

BUDGET COVERING

Former KOAT-TV news political reporter Matt Grubs tells me he is back in New Mexico after a brief out-of-state adventure and is producing news for public TV station KNME-TV. He blogged about the budget for the "In-Focus" broadcast hosted by Gene Grant on Friday evenings.

POLICE BEAT

This email from reader and retired ABQ Police Department Seargent Dan Klein pretty much sums up the meaning of the news over the enormous cost of police misconduct suits:

In the Feb. 6 ABQ Journal article the city admits they have paid out over $30,000,000 of our dollars in the past ten years for police lawsuits. Once again they dump all blame on former ABQ Mayor Marty Chavez. Chief Administrative Officer Rob Perry states that Mayor RJ Berry inherited Marty's policy of no settlements and going to court with all such cases.

Berry also inherited ABQ Police Chief Ray Schultz. That seems to be the common denominator here. Berry could do something about this, but for some reason he holds on to Schultz.

February is the month for love, but the love Berry has for Schultz is costing the Albuquerque taxpayer too much money. When will the Berry administration stop blaming Chavez and start making changes?

Thanks, Dan. He's been covering this story for us with his armchair expertise for many months.

It's apparent that Mayor Berry has made his bed with Schultz and will rely on a community wide fear of crime to overcome Schultz's negatives.

UNGLUED OVER GAY

Another negative that Berry may have to deal with when he stands for re-election in 2013 is opposition from social conservatives in his Republican Party. ABQ Pastor Smotherman is again putting the heat on him for being too gay friendly, a charge he also leveled at Governor Martinez who appointed a gay man--Douglas Howe--to a seat on the Public Regulation Commission. Gay rights advocates protested at his church.

Berry needs a unified GOP in a Democratic city to win another four years. If Smotherman's rants propel an actual conservative candidacy that manages to get on the ballot, it would be a real threat to the mayor.

Martinez, meanwhile, has stayed silent over her gay appointment, She knows it alienates social conservatives in her GOP base, but nevertheless is taking a progressive stance. That's not going to hurt her with the wider swath of voters who have a much more tolerant attitude than the good Pastor Smotherman.

WHERE'S THE SUNSHINE?

Back to the police beat, one our Legal Beagles has a keen question about the many police misconduct settlement cases:

Why isn't there a sunshine law requiring the full reporting of every settlement or verdict resulting from any civil rights violation by the City?

The sealing of settlements to public view covers up the misconduct. The legal fees are reported because they're expenditures requiring accounting. What happened to justify the City paying out more than three times attorney Paul Kennedy's fees in damages, who were the victims, and of what misconduct?

I'll give you fifty bucks if you can show me copies of the civil complaints or tort claims notices filed with the city in five or more cases represented by Kennedy's fees. Take it in cash or a Barelas Coffee House gift card.

Hey, we know a sucker's bet when we see one, Mr. Beagle, even if we will dearly miss that $50 bucks in enchilada money for Barelas. Maybe Gywneth Doland in her new capacity as executive director of the New Mexico Foundation for Open Government can look into this?

ON THE TRAIL

Back to former Mayor Chavez, he's back on the campaign trail these days seeking the Dem nomination for the ABQ US House seat. We caught up with him recently at a Black History Month luncheon where veteran national Dem operative Donna Brazile was the featured speaker.

Chavez developed a strong environmental record as Mayor and formed ties to former VP Al Gore who has been a leading advocate for correcting global warming. Brazile was Gore's campaign manager in 2000 and now spends her time as a commentator, analyst and advocate for President Obama.

Donna posed for the pic, but did not endorse Chavez. He has two opponents--State Sen. Eric Griego and Bernalillo County Commissioner Michelle Lujan Grisham. In this early phase of the campaign, the contest seems winnable by any of the three.

RON OVER MITT

Here's an interesting stat. Ron Paul has out raised Mitt Romney in New Mexico:

In the West: Up 54.7 percent in Alaska ($72,915 for Paul vs. $47,142 for Romney), 4.7 percent in Hawaii ($67,013 vs. $64,030), 29.0 percent in Montana ($75,868 vs. $58,797), and 34.7 percent in New Mexico ($78,057 vs. $57,933)

New Mexico is not without its libertarian streak--just ask Gary Johnson.

IT'S AGONIZING

Veteran ABQ Journal New Mexico politics editor John Robertson is at the Roundhouse for the duration of the 30 day session, but it sounds as if he's had enough. He is looking forward to the annual House-Senate basketball game Friday night:

It’s a good cause, of course, and a welcome break from the legislative session, which has 11 agonizing days to go.

Agonizing, we presume, because there is simply not much for John to write about that is of much interest beyond the political community. However, if big stuff starts to pass in these final days, that will turn on a dime.

The game is a fund-raiser for the UNM Cancer Center.

This is the home of New Mexico politics.

E-mail your news and comments. (jmonahan@ix.netcom.com)

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