NM Court of Appeals
Attention, all you lawyers out there. How about a nice $118,000 a year job without all the worry of rainmaking for new clients, bill collections and those pesky court appearances? Well, we've got just the gig for you--a slot on the NM Court of Appeals.

Get your bids in soon, though, because the line is already getting long with those who want to replace Judge Robert Robles who was forced to resign after getting busted on a DWI charge. Oh yeah, it might help if you are a Republican since the ultimate decision on who will will get the slot belongs to Gov. Martinez.

Maybe we should put Republican Ned Fuller at the front of the line. After all, Ned was the GOP nominee when Robles won in 2010, but barely. Ned turned the race into a cliffhanger, garnering 49.2% of the vote to Robles' 50.8% in a year when it seemed the R's could do no wrong.

So who else are the mentioners mentioning as possible occupants of those spiffy Court of Appeals digs over at UNM? From a Legal Beagle:

Here are the folks I've heard are applying: Ned Fuller (R), Paul Barber (R), District Court Judge Denise Barela Sheppard (R), Santa Fe attorney John Polk (R), Santa Fe attorney Jane Yohalem (D), District Court Judge Monica Zamora (D), ABQ attorney Kerry Kiernan (D) & Metro Court Judge Frank Sedillo (D).

And another Beagle chimes in that Art Pepin, a Democrat, former prosecutor and director of the administrative office of the state court system, can be expected to make a play for the coveted court spot.

There are eight Dems and two R's on the appeals court. The new judge will be nominated by a state judicial commission and his or her name sent to the Guv. Public interviews will be held June 29. The new judge will have to run in a partisan election in 2012 to finish out all of the Robles term. If they win that, they serve all the way until 2019. After that, they only have to stand in a retention election.

So this deal is tantamount to a lifetime appointment--unless you decide to get slammed at the local saloon and then go for a drive. Nice work, if you can get it. And just think. If special prosecutor Matt Chandler can prove the innuendo that a bunch of judges bribed their way onto the bench during Big Bill's Guv term, there will be a whole lot more openings. Just don't be on it, Gators....

A JOBS PROGRAM?

Not all state jobs are as secure as that judgeship. Here we go.....

The Governor's office issued a slight caveat on the 44 layoffs that hit the Public Education and other departments on a quiet news Friday. They said:

While certain positions will be eliminated, those employees involved in the reorganization will be offered lateral positions that are currently vacant and we are optimistic they will all have an opportunity to maintain their employment in state government.

Martinez and the Legislature signaled their intent to avoid layoffs when they presented their respective budget plans at the beginning of the year. The announcement of 44 jobs being lost had some sting. So what happened?

We've already reduced total state government employment by 13 percent during this Great Recession. Its been done mainly by leaving jobs vacant. Laying off employees into a state economy that is still experiencing negative job growth is counterproductive. Laid off workers aren't going to buy houses, or spend at local restaurants or shops.

The New Mexican economy remains precarious. We need Martinez and the Legislature in the September special redistricting session to pass the $225 million capital outlay bill that was gridlocked in the last session. She and the legislative leadership say they will get it done. That will create more jobs, but if we start trimming the state payroll through layoffs--and not attrition--it's going to cancel the benefit we gain from the stimulus.

Other options available to deal with personnel costs, if necessary, include the current policy of not filling vacant positions, reducing salaries, furloughs and early retirements.

That the targeted 44 may be able to find other state positions mollifys some concern, but the administration needs to get a yellow flag here, so here it is:

Susana, laying off employees in a recessionary economy is not a jobs program.

SOJOURNING SUSANA

Gov. Martinez deplaned in L.A. Sunday night for some California politicking. Maybe she saw this story on the news racks of the LA Times which profiled her along with other new and prominent Republican Hispanic faces. We blogged May 31 of Martinez's Orange County GOP Flag day speech which will take place tonight in Irvine. A California Alligator adds that Sunday night the Guv went to a "private dinner with a group of GOP Latinos."

MAKING THE ROUNDS

We take you now to Alamogordo where Light Guv and GOP US Senate candidate John Sanchez made the rounds and did we detect a note of populism?

We have to create an environment on the federal level that encourages the private sector--not just big businesses, like the oil and gas industry to grow. The economic engine that drives the economy is the small businessman the guy who owns a hardware store or the guy who owns a small restaurant...

And Sanchez came with his first hit on the issue that the Alligators see as perhaps the most damaging to former Rep. Heather Wilson who Sanchez is battling for the nomination:

"Unfortunately, one of the last things she did when she lost (the 2008 GOP) primary was she went out and voted for the bank bailouts.

Yep, the bank bailout vote is back. That's the "Wall Street vs. Main Street" argument that resonates so well these days among rank and file voters. If the economy is the centerpiece issue in 2012 (and who doesn't think it won't be?) you're going to see Sanchez hanging this around Heather's neck every chance he gets.

SANCHEZ VS. WILSON

D.C. Democratic political consultant Stephen Clermont has been helping us game the US Senate action. Here's his latest from the swampy banks of the Potomac and this non-anonymous Alligator:

Joe, Interesting post on May 30 about Wilson and Sanchez not coming out on the Ryan budget plan to phase out the current Medicare system. It is not that surprising given the makeup of the Republican primary electorate. Yes, it is conservative and there are lots of Tea Party supporters, but it is also disproportionately made up of seniors.

Looking at the numbers, among Republicans who voted in either the 2008 or 2010 primary, 35% are over 65 and 71% are over 50. Only 15% of Republicans who have not participated in a recent primary are over 65 and 60% of these registrants are under 50. Wilson or Sanchez could try to compete for the younger Republicans who don’t receive Social Security and/or Medicare and support significant changes to those programs, but they face the difficult task of turning them out to vote in an election they have not participated in.

On the other hand, they can go after those they know who will vote but many of those voters receive the benefits the national party voted to change. Intriguing balancing act they have to perform, but they can’t dodge the question over the next year, especially as Congress takes even tougher votes to deal with the debt ceiling this summer....

Thanks, Stephen. You're way ahead of the curve. But this is the place for that kind of thing. The Alligators predicted Sanchez running for the Senate seat only days after Senator Bingaman announced his retirement; they said weeks ago the bank bailout vote would be a major issue and here it is today. And they predicted the Sanchez-Wilson race that they envisaged so early would be--contrary to conventional wisdom--no run away for Wilson but one of the premier GOP nomination battles in the USA. And guess what? It is. That's why they say.....

This is the home of New Mexico politics---the "must-read" of the New Mexico Net.

We welcome your advertising and for a limited time have special summer rates. E-mail us for details, as well as your news and comments.

Find us on Facebook and follow us on Twitter.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2011
Not for reproduction without permission of the author

Labels: court of appeals, John Sanchez, state layoffs

GOP US Senate candidates Heather Wilson and John Sanchez are both running scared. Not necessarily from on another, but from the Ryan Medicare plan, an existential threat that could prevent either from succeeding Democrat Jeff Bingaman.

For a second time, Wilson has refused to comment on the controversial proposal to privatize Medicare offered up by GOP House Budget committee chairman Paul Ryan and which is getting credit for the Dems winning heavy GOP district in a special New York House election. Now Lt. Governor John Sanchez is also seeking shelter, mimicking Heather and refusing to comment on the plan which is increasingly being labeled a Republican "death wish:"

The campaign of former Rep. Heather Wilson did not comment when asked by Hotline On Call where she stood. Wilson's main GOP opponent, Lt. Gov. John Sanchez, when pressed in an interview over whether he would vote for the measure, declined to commit to a yes or no vote...

How long can two major Republican candidates for the US Senate avoid taking a position on what could very well be the #1 issue of Senate campaign 2012?

Wilson and Sanchez face a potential death trap. Tea party types and other conservatives that have out sized influence in the NM GOP will embrace the Ryan plan, but in next year's campaign the Dem US Senate nominee will hang either Wilson or Sanchez if they go along with the privatizing scheme.

The refusal of Sanchez and Wilson to take a position on a key issue reveals why the 2012 New Mexico US Senate seat deserves to be ranked as "lean Democrat." And until John and Heather find a way out of their party's Medicare mess, it's going to stay that way.

THE GADFLY

Let's catch up with another GOP Senate candidate who is not yet in the top tier, but lurks in the background. Greg Sowards of Las Cruces, who has made two previous runs for Congress, says both Wilson and Sanchez are bluffing--that both of them are moderates and that he is the true conservative. The owner of a chain of child day care centers in Cruces, said this past week:

I've been accused of being the original tea partier. I was in the Tea Party before there was a Tea Party....

Reminds us of that old song, "I Was Country When Country Wasn't Cool."

LANDSLIDED?

We knew we should have hit "delete" when we wrote it, but we went ahead anyway and in recent blog invented the new word of "landslided." Former longtime newspaper columnist Jim Belshaw doesn't think that will make it into the dictionary:

"Landslided?"

landslide, v., to cover in soil from a great height; to blog with impunity; to give heartburn to copy editors everywhere.

I looked it up, Joe. Googled it even.

We apologize for the heartburn cases.

This is the home of New Mexico politics.

E-mail your news and comments. Interested in advertising here? Drop us a line.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2011
Not for reproduction without permission of the author

Labels: Heather Wilson, John Sanchez

The effort to keep John Sanchez out of the race for the Republican nomination for the United States Senate had all the power of pushing on a string. The somewhat tattered remains of a GOP establishment again tried to anoint former GOP Congresswoman Heather Wilson as their chosen one, but Sanchez formally enters the race today, setting the stage for a highly competitive primary and one in which Wilson could find herself on the losing end if she loses sight of her "A" game.

Sanchez played to his strength in making the entry. He cut a 60 second TV spot showing him at his telegenic best. In it he describes his up-by-the-bootstraps beginnings, calls himself a "new voice" and takes an oblique dig at Wilson by saying we shouldn't return politicians to Washington "who got us into this mess in the first place."

Sanchez's campaign Web site is here.

Sanchez said it's not just a web ad. He will make a "significant buy" to put it on broadcast TV. That's clearly an "I came to play" message that has become his political signature. If the buy is as he says, Sanchez is rapidly going to close a lot of space between himself and Heather.

If politics is all about timing, could Sanchez's timing be any better? He is 48--the right age; he's fresh from a statewide win for lieutenant governor; he's an Hispanic candidate when promoting Hispanics is all the Republican rage; he's an Hispanic candidate when it was 1976 when NM had its last Hispanic Senator; Wilson, his chief rival, remains unpopular with the dominant conservative wing of the party and despite his past electoral successes and failures Sanchez still retains his anti-politician identity as a successful, independent businessman.

On top of that, if Sanchez loses the nod he will still keep his day job as lieutenant governor at least until 2014. It's hard to find a reason for Sanchez not to run. But Heather Wilson, as tenacious a political player as the state has seen, will certainly come up with a lengthy list.

Will there be negative campaigning? What do you think? Will there be luminarias on Christmas Eve?

WHY ME?

In a phone conversation with the freshly-minted candidate, Sanchez returned to the themes he teased with before becoming a formal contender. He tells GOP voters "they now have a clear choice" and he "is the good conservative alternative" to Wilson with "the real, practical, hands-on experience that the country needs right now."

Hold on, John. Heather holds a Ph.D in international relations, is a five term former ABQ congresswoman and a national security expert to boot. Aren't you, a high school graduate, out of your depth?

"Some of the most sophisticated, well-educated people got America into the trouble we are now in. Why don't we send Senators to Washington with real-world experience and common-sense solutions?"

Sanchez, who built a small roofing business into a big one and made millions in the process, said "restoring fiscal sanity and making sure we get our financial house in order" is the prelude to creating jobs and boosting the economy.

While Sanchez highlights his business background as central to his candidacy, he says he also acquired the requisite depth to be a US Senator from his service as an official in the village of Los Ranchos, from a two year term in the Legislature and now as lieutenant governor. He was also the 2002 GOP governor nominee, losing to Democrat Bill Richardson.

When he was toying with the idea of running, Sanchez unloaded a fusillade against Wilson, dubbing her "a relic of the past" and not a true conservative. He said in our interview that "there will be plenty of time for the contrasts" and resisted unloading on her again. He's right about the time. The June 2012 primary is still over a year away.

JOHN AND SUSANA

We also threw out an old allegation against Sanchez--that his roofing company employed illegal immigrants. "My business has always complied to the fullest extent of the law," he retorted, and added that he has been in business for 30 years with a reputation for "success and honesty." He pointed to the Small Business of the Year Award that Right Way Roofing received from the ABQ Hispano Chamber of Commerce. Unsurpisingly, he said he fully supports Governor Martinez's continued push to repeal driver's licenses for illegal immigrants.

As far as Martinez throwing her support behind him in a contested primary, Sanchez said he could not predict what she would do, but that if elected to the Senate he looked forward to working with her "side by side."

Susana's popularity among R's is off the charts. His association with her is going to help, but a formal endorsement of Heather or Sanchez by Susana is unlikely.

The relationship between the Guv and Light Guv is not known to be warm--to put it politely. She has given the state's #2 no responsibilities. But political pros do not see her trying to thwart him. Wilson headed Susana's transition team but insiders say her relationship with Heather also would not heat up a room. But Wilson was smart to head that transition and, like Sanchez, will benefit from any association with the state's leading R.

THE DANGER

Sanchez won a four way GOP Guv primary in 2002. In 2000, he was labeled a political giant killer when he ousted powerful House Speaker Raymond Sanchez from his ABQ North Valley House seat. In 2010, he won a three way primary for the GOP lieutenant governor nomination.

You can see how dangerous this candidacy is to Wilson's continued political life. In addition, my polling Alligators say 70 percent of GOP primary voters are self-described conservatives. If Sanchez, like Pearce, becomes known as their candidate, Heather's headache becomes a migraine.

THE FAMILY HISTORY

It's a strong one, as most of you know. Born and raised in ABQ, Sanchez is the youngest of eight children and raised by a single mother. His grandfather served in the Legislature. His wife Debra likes politics and the couple frequently use their expansive far ABQ NE Heights home for political fundraisers. The couple have two children. In his TV spot, he says he grew up "in poverty." That's not a word you often see referenced in a Republican candidate's background. It sets him apart and maybe down the road helps him with Dems?

THE POLITICS

The Sanchez candidacy signals with certainty that southern NM GOP Congressman Steve Pearce will not go for the Senate nod again. He did so in 2008 and beat Wilson by toting up huge margins in the south. Insiders see him doing all he can for Sanchez without provoking too much controversy.

Sanchez may not be able to get totals in the south as impressive as Pearce's, but he has a hole card Pearce did not. Sanchez is a native of ABQ and will fight Wilson in the metro area where the fate of her candidacy rests.

Early polling and Wilson's high name ID have her in the driver's seat, but it is a slippery steering wheel she's gripping. A robocall poll taken in late April had her beating Sanchez among Republicans 59% to 17%. But that was before Sanchez even announced. Also, that survey showed that the number of GOP voters who would definitely cast a ballot for Wilson was in the mid-30's--far from the majority needed for the win.

Still, as our insiders have said before, they expect Wilson to maintain a steady lead throughout the year with Sanchez closing the gap as we head into 2012. That, of course, is contingent on no major mistakes by the Light Guv who is not as well-known as Heather and for whom a campaign gaffe would take more of a toll.

THE MONEY

Sanchez has never been shy about dipping into his own bank account and he's not backing off now.

"I've never had a problem priming the pump and letting our donors know we have skin in the game," Sanchez declared. He said he will seed the campaign with his own money to get it off the ground.

Estimates on how much the GOP Senate race will cost range from $1.5 million to over $2 million, the amount Heather and Pearce each spent in their '08 duel. Wilson is an adroit fund-raiser, but the slow economy could pinch. Ditto for Sanchez.

Heather has raised a fast $300,000. Sanchez could easily match a good chunk of that with personal funds and his conversation with me indicated he is ready to do so.

Las Cruces day center owner Craig Sowards has also announced a GOP Senate bid and kicked it off by giving himself $150,000, but he will need much more to join Heather and John in the top tier.

THIRD PARTY PLAYERS

Third party TV money looks especially favorable for Sanchez. Conservative groups like "Club for Growth" that cut campaign ads against Wilson last time around are sure to be back. They do not see her as a true blue conservative. Sanchez will benefit from the hard-right support, but he will leave himself wiggle room on key issues so he can try to move to the middle if he wins the nomination.

Wilson has not yet secured meaningful backing from the big players who supported Pearce last time around. In other words, she does not appear to have expanded her base in the party very much, despite a slew of endorsements from state senators, representatives and various party officials. She had many of those last time as well and still lost. She will need to raid the tea party ranks to stop Sanchez from consolidating that vote and taking the win. Her vote to bail out the banks in her final year as a congresswoman is sure to be used against her as will doubts about her right-to-life credentials. She broke with President Bush on stem cell research.

THE CONSULTANTS

Here's the scoop on Sanchez's campaign consultants as recently reported by the WaPo:

RedRock Strategies formed: Two big-name Republican consulting firms are joining forces out West.

Ryan Erwin Associates and Casteel Erwin Associates have formed a new political consulting firm, RedRock Strategies. The two strategists joined forces last year to form Casteel Erwin Associates; now they’re combining their two firms into one.

Ryan Erwin is a former leader of the Nevada Republican Party and was a senior adviser on former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney’s 2008 presidential campaign. Corbin Casteel is a Texas-based consultant and former finance director for the state GOP. He currently works for former state Railroad Commissioner Michael Williams, who is running for retiring Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison’s (R-Texas) seat.

Sanchez will be one of the new firm's first major clients. Will that make them hungrier for the win?

THE BOTTOM LINES

Unlike 2008 when the R's fought vigorously among themselves for the right to succeed retiring Senator Pete Domenici, this time both parties have intramural battles. While Sanchez and Wilson square off, Rep. Martin Heinrich and State Auditor Hector Balderas are battling for the Dem nomination to fill the seat being vacated by Senator Jeff Bingaman.

Some politicos will worry that the spirited campaigns could damage their party's chances in the general election, but for New Mexico the competition is good news. With Senator Domenici gone and veteran Bingaman leaving, rarely have we been more vulnerable in Washington. Our next Senator--a 21st century Senator---must be a fighter not just on campaign billboards and TV spots but in the corridors of power where the money and power is divvied up.

On paper, Sanchez, Wilson, Heinrich and Balderas all have what it takes. But it will be the heat and pressure of the primary that will sort out the field and leave standing the two who have the most strength to protect this state's interests in Washington and position it for what looks to be a very challenging future.

This is the home of New Mexico politics.

E-mail your news and comments. Interested in advertising here? Drop us a line.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2011
Not for reproduction without permission of the author

Labels: John Sanchez, US Senate