This one broke Friday and is a blockbuster. The audio tapes of the Governor bullying Santa Fe police dispatchers over complaints made about the noise coming from Martinez's late night/early morning holiday staff party at the posh El Dorado Hotel. The tapes and more are here and here.

It reveals the dark side of her personality that has been mostly concealed from the public but experienced by so many in the political community. There will be much more on this in the coming days. More in-depth coverage here.

Santa Fe police were dispatched to Gov. Susana Martinez’s hotel room at the Eldorado Hotel & Spa about 1:30 a.m. Sunday after a caller complained of loud noises emanating from the room and someone throwing bottles off the balcony.
Santa Fe County dispatchers on Friday released recordings of Martinez talking to dispatchers after the complaint was made. She insisted on knowing who made the complaint and telling dispatchers that police officers were not needed.
The governor said she and her disabled sister were in the room, along with six other people eating pizza. She said they were not making noise. If there was a disturbance in the room, she tells the dispatcher, it would have happened about six hours earlier, but does not provide further explanation in the recording.

Martinez's response here.

CLINTON TO NM

The presidential campaign will come to New Mexico next month in the form of former President Bill Clinton. Ex-ABQ Mayor Marty Chavez confirmed the January 9th high dollar fund-raising appearance in a note to fellow Clintonistas:

We'll have President Clinton in Albuquerque on January 9th (noonish).  I hope you can join us.  Tickets are $1,000 and $2,700.00 and we'll have our location shortly. 

Hillary Clinton made a fundraising appearance here earlier in the year at the home of former Ambassador Ed Romero The state's Dem prez primary here is not until June by which time the nomination is expected to have been settled. But the fund-raising will most certainly go on.

Bill Clinton was and remains a popular president here. He won it twice and he had close ties to legendary Dem Guv Bruce King as well as former Mayor Chavez. He recently made the peace with former NM Gov. Richardson who served in the Clinton cabinet but had a falling out when Hillary was running for president in 2008.

UNM'S BIG PICTURE

One of the big stories of 2016 and beyond will be the University of New Mexico undergoing wrenching, transformative change that won't end until the size of the venerable institution matches the state's no growth future. For evidence, look no further than the chaos and trepidation set off by a predicted revenue shortfall of only $3.5 million. It's utter confusion:

Provost Chaouki Abdallah. . .  told regents that the school’s job advertising software overstates what positions are actually open. They also said that for many positions that are open the duties are being handled by other staff. . . Abdallah said he has tried to split the open position duties among staff, then share the salary accordingly, but that doesn’t always happen. And, he said, sometimes, if a position is open and unfilled because of unqualified or unavailable candidates, the money set aside for that post is sometimes used for other expenses. 

You get dizzy just reading that wad of dysfunction. And what happens when the shortfall hits $10 million and more and enrollment keeps dropping? The years ahead for UNM will be the most challenging ever. . .

It was past due for longtime UNM Regent Jamie Koch to retire as he announced he will this week, but we suspect others to follow him to the exits as running UNM becomes more exasperating and divisive as the money fades away.

That new reality is already overwhelming the UNM Athletic Department which is dumbfounded as it watches attendance for Lobo basketball at the fabled UNM Pit crash to the floor. The director wonders aloud if it's due to the forlorn economy. How could that not be part of the reason? And a drop in enrollment and tuition increases don't help pack students into the Pit, either.

But it is bigger than that. Lobo basketball at its zenith was a mania that rode the state's secular growth wave of the last century.  It's just not that exciting anymore. The new reality is no growth and a new generation that has untold cheap entertainment options via technology.

And then there is the Pit itself, ridiculously renamed WisePies arena and looking like a senior citizen in need of dentures. The decision to remodel and not completely rebuild it with all the bells and whistles for the new century told today's 19 year olds all they needed to know.

And as UNM now faces more cutthroat competition for students, even the most ardent fans have given up on the dream of the Lobos being a consistent player in the NCAA tournament. Funny, that dream was pretty much unrealistic throughout the Lobo basketball boom, but that's when New Mexico was surfing on that mighty wave. That's when many things seemed improbable but unlike today not impossible.

PREGAME ACTION

Just a bit more than a month before the 2016 session of the NM Legislature convenes so we're starting to get some announcements. Here's one of interest:

ABQ Dem State Senator Mimi Stewart pre-filed a bill to extend the residential, commercial, and agricultural tax credit for solar installations. The ten percent tax credit for a solar installation is set to expire at the end of 2016. This bill extends the tax credit through 2024. “This is a jobs bill. There are more than 90 solar businesses in New Mexico employing thousands of people across the state. These jobs are homegrown and cannot be outsourced,” said Sen. Mimi Stewart. From 2012 to 2014, the number of jobs in the solar industry in New Mexico grew 45 percent, employing 1,600 people by the end of last year.

The tax credit extension is being sponsored in the State House by GOP Rep. Sarah Maestas Barnes.

LOOK AT THAT


The sunsets in New Mexico have been nothing short of spectacular in recent days. Former ABQ Journal reporter John Robertson, who lives in Placitas, posted this stunner on his twitter feed.

In trying to describe the impact of this latest breathtaking offering from Mother Nature, he deadpanned: "I give up."

And that's one reason why they call it "The Land of Enchantment."

That's it for this week. Thanks for stopping by.

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Sec. of State Winter

Wasn't it just in August that the NM Supreme Court upheld the city of ABQ's right to prohibit its employees from serving in elected positions? Sure was. Well, maybe the Supremes need to be asked about newly appointed GOP Secretary of State Brad Winter who is going to continue to serve as an ABQ city councilor even as he takes on the full-time $85,000 a year SOS post. One of our Legal Beagles sends us this from the ABQ City Charter:

Effective January 1, 1993, employees of the city are prohibited from holding an elective office of the State of New Mexico or any of its political subdivisions, except employees of the city on October 3, 1989, who on that date hold elective office of the State of New Mexico or any of its political subdivisions may thereafter hold and be elected to the same elective office while serving as a city employee.

Maybe they can argue that as an appointee to fill the Secretary of State vacancy left by the resignation of Dianna Duran, Winter does not hold "elective office?" Can they argue he isn't a city employee when he gets a $30,000 annual city paycheck for his council service?

So far we are getting blanket statements in the media that the attorneys say there is no problem with Winter holding the two elective positions, but reader Carmie Toulouse sends this except form the Constitution that raises questions:

Joe, I would guess that Winter has not read the Constitution of the State of New Mexico thoroughly. Article V, section 1 defines the Executive Branch of State Government as "governor, lieutenant governor, secretary of state, state auditor, state treasurer, attorney general and commissioner of public lands" and then states, "The officers of the executive department, except the lieutenant governor, shall during their terms of office, reside and keep the public records, books, papers and seals of the office at the seat of government."

It seems to me, while this section is ignored by some, it would behoove Winter to not publicly flout it so blatantly. His job should be to restore integrity to his new office rather than violate a condition of the State Constitution, especially to increase his income.

The Santa Fe residency requirement has been loosely interpreted over the years.

And then there are the Alligators, always looking for the humorous in any situation. One of them comes with this rib tickler:

I assume at this point that Brad Winter is the leading candidate to replace Jamie Koch on the UNM Board of Regents, right? I mean, why not? He's already a triple-dipper, (SOS salary, ABQ City Council Salary and a big education retirement pension). Why not just make it an even four and get the quadruple-dip going?

Aah, the quadruple dip. If Brad could do that it would be a bigger feat than that pole vaulting record he set back in the day when he attended ABQ's Highland High. . .

A BLUE CHRISTMAS

Meanwhile, the debate was hot on social media Wednesday as ex-SOS Duran threw in the towel and agreed not to challenge her plea bargain deal with the attorney general, meaning she will report to jail Friday to begin her 30 day sentence for campaign finance corruption convictions. Here's Michael Olivas, a law professor at the University of Houston:

“With the same resolve with which Ms. Duran swiftly accepted responsibility, she will accept the sentence of the court,” said her attorney??? The only thing swift here was her downfall after her perfidy became clearer, and the resolve by Judge Ellington in punishing her for her transgressions, lies, and crimes. Oh yes, and she was always swift about her restricting voting rights during her pathetic term as S of S. Even as she whined and cried her way through the hearings, she refused to acknowledge her felonious behavior and crimes. 

Tim Sienicki came with the rebuttal:

The general public is saying, "how can I steal hundreds of thousands and get away with 30 days in jail..." I fail to see how this is a lesson for other corrupt politicians in this state, of whom we suspect many. I'm sure as a law prof you will have a good reason, but the proof is that the general public does real prison time if they are not connected to the governor and other politicos.

LOBBYING HEADACHE

Viki Harrison

They complain of how they have to tighten their belts in this new austere era but the public sector always seeems to have plenaty of cash on hand for our friends in the lobbying corp:

New Mexico cities, counties, colleges and other public entities spent nearly $7.2 million in 2014 and 2015 to lobby the state and federal government. Two-thirds, or more than $4.8 million, went toward lobbying officials here in New Mexico compared to $2.35 million spent to lobby in Washington. . . 

That “makes my head hurt,” Viki Harrison, executive director of Common Cause New Mexico, said when told the amount. “We’re paying for this with taxpayer money? If this was private money people were using, that would be one thing. But this is my taxes."

Sorry to hear about your head hurting, Viki. The only advice we have for a cure is to do what most New Mexicans do when it comes to Santa Fe--bury your head in the sand.

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(Moore, Journal)

The greed is good crowd can pop the New Year's champagne corks early. Freshly sworn in Republican Secretary of State Brad Winter shows how it's done. 

He says he will not only collect $85,000 a year for being SOS but apparently will be a part-time one.

He is refusing to give up his ABQ city council seat which pays him $30,000 a year. In addition, Winter, who had a career in public education, draws a hefty state pension that must be well into six figures, based in part on his salary as interim APS superintendent before he retired. Of course, the higher SOS salary will add to another  pension he will eventually get from his years in the PERA plan as an ABQ city councilor. Nice work, if you can get it. . .

When is enough, enough? When did becoming Secretary of State in a presidential election year--any year for that matter--and following one of the office's worst scandals in state history become a part-time "do-it-when-I-damn-well-feel-like-it" job? Didn't Dianna Duran do something similar as she fed her gambling addiction? Well, this looks like a greed addiction, while the Governor says Winter was supposedly brought on to restore stability and "integrity" to the office.

If the double-dealing is legal, what about it being ethical?

And Democratic City Councilor Ken Sanchez defending Winter keeping two jobs says one thing: You will never be Mayor of this city, Ken. Winter needs to resign his council seat and devote himself full-time to defending and advancing the voting rights of the people of this state. Meanwhile, what about the rights of Winter's constituents in his city council district. They are getting shortchanged.

You'll recall Winter also kept his council seat when he was named interim APS superintendent but that was not an elected, statewide office nor did he have to drive 60 miles to Santa Fe to do his job. Still, he shouldn't have been serving two masters then and most certainly should not now--not when public confidence in the SOS is at perhaps its lowest ebb ever.

The Governor's political machine is under the gun as the FBI investigates Martinez political adviser Jay McCleskey. While it is rightly called a machine, the fact is the circle is very tight. Maybe attorney Amy Bailey, a former ABQ city clerk now working at the SOS office and who insiders had pegged as a leading replacement for Duran, just wasn't showing enough fealty to McCleskey and company--the main qualification for any major state government job in New Mexico.

Whatever the case, it is sad to see the Secretary of State office's diminished and  treated like a job on the graveyard shift at Denny's, but then that's par for the course for this gang.

BLASTING BRAD

The state Dem Party took the Winter appointment as an opportunity to get off this blast:

Public documents clearly show that Winter – whom Martinez is tapping to oversee elections and government ethics in New Mexico – paid more than $13,000 to Martinez political consultant Jay McCleskey, who is currently under federal investigation for campaign fundraising irregularities and is known to have set up shell companies to effectively launder money to his business. “We are deeply concerned that Gov. Martinez has appointed to be our state's elections watchdog a man who has clear and direct ties to scandal-ridden political consultant Jay McCleskey,” said Debra Haaland, Democratic Chairwoman. “How can Brad Winter possibly hope to clean up the Martinez Administration’s mess when he’s directly connected to the players in the scandals?”

BernCo County Clerk Maggie Toulouse Oliver will soon be off and running for the Dem nomination for Secretary of State. No other Dem candidates have yet surfaced. We'll also watch for R names as Winter has said he won't seek election to the post in 2016.

FROM FACEBOOK

I assume the logic is that since city council don't actually DO anything, keeping that job cannot possibly interfere with the OTHER job.....Pretty unassailable, actually.

AN ISIS LICENSE?

Reader Steve Crespin writes writes:

Duran

The sentencing of former Secretary of State Dianna Duran should remind our often insulated political community just how much anger  the public harbors toward politicians.

Duran's 30 day jail sentence for campaign finance corruption stemming from her gambling addiction was widely derided and denounced on social media. A typical comment went like this:

"So, they slapped her wrist, but not hard enough to make it jiggle."

Anger has been escalating in the past decade as the economy changes, political campaigns grow more vicious and as social media provides an immediate platform to vent rage. Ironically, the hostility--if not hatred--toward the political class has led not to an explosion in voting but an abandonment of political participation. Voting dives as rage rises. . .

SOS MANPOWER

And an out-of-the-blue choice is Gov. Martinez's pick to become the new Secretary of State to replace the disgraced Duran. KOB-TV confirmed that she will name ABQ Republican City Councilor Brad Winter to fill the post. He would be the first man in the modern era to serve in the position.

His appointment means a vacancy on the ABQ city council that will be filled by Mayor Berry and confirms speculation heard here during the October city council election that Winter--if re-elected--might not serve out his full four year term. (We're assuming Winter will leave the council. No official word on that yet.)

Winter will not seek election to the SOS post in '16,  the Governor's office said Tuesday morning.

For sure Winter will keep Martinez's political machine in good standing as he presides over the SOS office in the '16 election year. That's what we see as the main point of this appointment, not necessarily what happens after that. Winter and his attorney wife Nann Winter are members in good standing of the Machine. (Also, Winter's PERA retirement check will benefit from a year long stint at the $85,000 level as SOS. He already is retired with a state ERB pension from his years at APS).

Bernalillo County Clerk Maggie Toulouse Oliver is expected to soon announce that she is a Dem candidate. Her party--with the exception of Republican Duran--has held the post since the 1930's.

THE AG AND DURAN

Attorney General Hector Balderas won some initial praise for bringing the Duran case forward, but he was caught behind the curve (and the public mood) with his soft prosecution.

Balderas

He said he was unable to stop Duran from getting her government pension despite her admission of guilt because the law was unclear (although that is disputed).  And his plea deal with Duran asked the judge not to give her jail time. Again, that was way behind the public's way of thinking. Duran ended up getting 30 days and still retains the right to drop the plea and take the case to trial to try to avoid time in the pokey.

Balderas says his office saved "tremendous taxpayers resources" because his actions avoided impeachment proceedings against Duran in the Legislature. But after years of the Governor and her political machine accusing Democrats of being drenched in corruption, foregoing impeachment proceedings against Republican Duran is looking like a costly political mistake. It made it much easier for Gov. Martinez to separate herself from the embarrassment of Duran, not to mention that impeachment and more punishment is what an outraged public wanted but that the AG either did not pick up on or ignored.

Here's reader John with a sample of some of the kind of email we received:

Hector says on TV news that Dianna was convicted and will serve jail time, but he forgot to say his office did not ask for the jail time. If not for the judge she would be planning a vacation to "spend time with family/" The judge didn't give enough time in my opinion but at least it was more than the state asked for. Hector's career has gone as far as its gonna go. (Former AG)Gary King would have done a better job even at his slow pace. 

Now the chess game continues with Balderas. He still has on his desk two hot potatoes placed there by State Auditor Tim Keller--the shady deal cut with the Taser corporation by former APD Chief Ray Schulz and the investigation of the taxation and revenue secretary for alleged favoritism. What will he do with those?

And then there's the potentially explosive corruption probe by a federal grand jury of the Governor's chief political adviser Jay McCleskey. If that erupts, will Balderas simply watch from the bleacher seats?

The Guv's machine has pretty much marched through this state, leaving much carnage in its wake. Second terms have a way of sorting out what legal and ethical barriers were breached in that kind of rampage. The stinky stuff is already surfacing. After watching the Duran case play out the question is whether Attorney General Balderas will continue to hold his nose to stifle the stench or put his gloves on and take out the garbage.

OPERATION LILLY

Reader Joe Barlela writes of Gov. Martinez's program to combat road rage, known as "Operation Lilly":

Joe, What Gov. Martinez should be doing for all the citizens is moving heaven and earth to get an adequate amount of police officers on the street to stop the rampant crime and road rage in Albuquerque. Clearly, Mayor Berry cannot seem to fix the problem.

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(Hanson, Journal)

Gov. Martinez is back in front of the public in a big way with initiatives on DWI and road rage and keeping far, far away from the jobs and economic issues that exposes her to political danger.

Coverage of her announcements, as usual, was uncritical so we pick up the spear to provide the counterpoints.

Martinez announced “Operation Lilly," a multi-agency effort to target aggressive drivers" and named after 4 year old Lilly Garcia who lost her life to a road rage incident this year on Interstate 40 in the city. A reader writes:

"Operation Lilly" is yet another emotive photo-op allowing our Governor to again dodge her day job and play the PR-hound prosecutor-in-chief, where moralizing is obviously more to her liking than facing up to the complicated issues she pretended to take on when she ran for Governor. It is long past time for her to step up to her real responsibilities and start getting her picture taken actually talking with and listening to economists, public finance experts, job creation experts, tax and rev experts, oil and gas experts, poverty experts, child welfare experts, education experts, bipartisan legislators, etc. about how to salvage and restore our state. That's what governors do. That's what voters trusted her to do. 

And former Dem ABQ Mayor Jim Baca adds:

Do the math. There are maybe 400 APD  officers (maybe) available for patrol over three shifts over seven days, minus sick leave and vacation time. This is what the current city administration has presented us with. That is only 19 officers available citywide on any shift, not accounting for any officers out on sick leave or vacation (sometimes there are more police on duty on weekends or evenings). It is time to get rid of some of the full-time horse teams, swat teams, gang teams, etc and put them in patrol cars. This really is nothing but Susana and the Mayor fiddling again.

In Martinez's defense, if she can increase state police patrols on the city's Wild West freeways that could restore some sanity to the driving habits there.

THE REAL DEAL

Of course, road rage is a sidebar issue as shown in our continuing real deal biz coverage.

Socorro is getting absolutely hammered by the ongoing recession/stagnation/depression in large swaths of rural New Mexico. The Smith's there is now closing and that comes on the heels of the loss of a major auto dealership.

If you are state House Speaker Don Tripp, who represents the area, are you looking for some major capital outlay for that area to stimulate the economy? You should, unless your Republican austerity puts you in a strait jacket. Same for State Senate Finance Committee Chairman John Arthur Smith, a conservative Democrat, whose Luna County is now on the list of USA counties with the worst unemployment pictures. Will Luna get some love from the powerful chairman in the next legislative session?

In his latest op-ed northern Dem State Sen. Pete Campos reports how state government job vacancies are taking their toll:

The Behavioral Health Institute at Las Vegas is the only state-owned and -operated psychiatric hospital in New Mexico. Employees care for more than 300 New Mexico residents with a variety of needs, including adult and adolescent psychiatric care; life-long term care; competency evaluations and treatment for patients who have allegedly committed a felony; and outpatient restorative services. However, position vacancy rates are at nearly 30%, leaving the facility severely understaffed, and turnover is high. To maintain the required staff levels, employees can be mandated to work up to four 16-hour shifts in a week. Many employees work 72 hours a week.

As we've often blogged, much of New Mexico's fiscal problems of late have been brought about by tax cutting fever that is now morphing with the crash in oil prices to stall state revenues. In Oklahoma, another oil dependent state, the fallout is even worse:

Even as Oklahoma's economy was roaring thanks to an oil boom, Sarah Dougherty watched in disbelief as the Tulsa elementary school her children attend expanded class sizes and eliminated teachers because costly tax cuts and incentives ate up much of the surplus revenue. Republican Gov. Mary Fallin and the GOP-led Legislature pushed through the latest cut, a quarter-point reduction in the top income tax rate, two years ago when $100-a-barrel crude buoyed the state's coffers. While the average tax filer will save only about $85 a year under the cut taking effect Jan. 1, it comes at a $147 million price tag to the state. State services — including education — are feeling the pinch.

"It's insanity land," Dougherty said. "It's demoralizing to live here and see that education is not a priority. These are our children and these are our neighbors. They need to make some changes.

For New Mexico, with gas prices at the pump crashing,  this would seem the right time for a small increase in gas taxes to finance needed transportation and road improvements. But getting that through the Republican-controlled House has as much chance as Chuck Franco becoming a vegetarian.

GETTING IN

Debbie Sariñana

The candidacy announcements are starting to pile up.
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They weren't kidding when they told us it would take years for APD to clean up its act. The force remains at historically low staffing levels and the president of the police officers union is arrested on child abuse charges, even as the mayor and council finally move to solve a five year old pay dispute with officers.

Then there's the controversial hiring by Chief Eden of a new APD training academy director who is under investigation by the BernCo sheriff's office where she used to work. And there's more. . .

A judge orders APD to finally stop stonewalling and release cellphone video taken by a witness to the Los Altos Skate Park killing of 17 year old Jaquise Lewis (God only nows what that will ultimately reveal). And then there are those rumors on the street about possibly more police video surfacing of the slaying of 19 year old Mary Hawkes that could be incriminating for the officer who shot her.

Solutions? You know the drill. Get a new police chief; purge the APD command staff; get the police force up to 1,000 officers pronto by putting up the cash and conducting aggressive national recruiting; have the city council pressure APD and Mayor Berry to move more quickly to implement required Department of Justice reforms.

Like we said, it's going to take years. And the heads of the city's economic groups, the Chamber of Commerce, AED, the Economic Forum and NAIOP, can have all the self-congratulatory luncheons they want, but no major business is coming into this town until they get involved and help clean up this mess. Don't say we didn't tell you.

FISHY STUFF

This is one that sent off a a fishy smell:

The state is having second thoughts about spending roughly $10 million to buy an office complex to house the Albuquerque offices of the Department of Children, Youth and Families – property that sold for $1.5 million last spring. Instead of moving ahead with the purchase now, the state will seek competitive proposals for leased space to consolidate CYFD offices. However, the administration of Gov. Martinez says it still may fall back on its previous plan to purchase the campus of older, largely vacant buildings in Southeast Albuquerque.

That report was from the ABQ Journal's investigative unit. Not bad but what about an update on that federal grand jury probe of Jay McCleskey, the governor's top political adviser and widely recognized as the most influential figure in state government, despite not having an official position? Only one story so far? What's with that? Everyone gone Christmas shopping?

PARKING IT

Sometimes the amateurs are better than the pros. There are some pretty cool amateur videos out promoting the state's parks:

Governor Martinez announced the winners of the Find Your New Mexico True Park video contest to help encourage more New Mexicans to explore the state over the summer. The winning videos are here. The (state) created this promotion in order to highlight parks throughout the state and to stimulate in-state tourism. Winners were selected in three categories: New Mexico State Parks, New Mexico Historic Sites, and the National Park Service.

The "Day at White Sands" video is only a minute long but captures the allure of New Mexico quite well.

THAT'S FUNNY

Here's a funny to end the week on:

After digging to a depth of 10 feet last year outside Buffalo, New York, scientists found traces of copper cable dating back 100 years. They came to the conclusion that their ancestors already had a telephone network more than 100 years ago.

Not to be outdone by the New Yorkers, in the weeks that followed, a Los Angeles, California archaeologist dug to a depth of 20 feet somewhere just outside Oceanside. Shortly afterward, a story in the LA Times read, "California archaeologists, reporting a finding of 200 year old copper cable, have concluded that their ancestors already had an advanced high-tech communications network a hundred years earlier than the New Yorkers."

One week later, the local newspaper in Santa Fe, New Mexico reported, "After digging 30 feet deep in his pasture near the community of Santa Fe, Frankie Lopez, a heck of an engineer and a self-taught archaeologist, reported that he found absolutely nothing. Frankie has therefore concluded that 300 years ago, New Mexico had already gone wireless."

Just makes a person proud to be from New Mexico.

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We continue to blog stuff what seems other worldly for our once thriving Sunbelt metropolis. Like this write-up from Fortune Magazine. It lists ABQ as the worst place in the nation to own a home since the start of the real estate recovery in 2012. That's dead last among 350 metro areas in the USA. Pretty stunning. Home values have been on the rebound just about everywhere during that time, but. . .

In Albuquerque, for example, home of Sandia National Laboratory, Kirtland Air Force Base, and the University of New Mexico, the government sector comprises nearly 21% of all employment compared with 14% nationally. With tight state, local and federal budgets, a more robust employment expansion has been hampered since prior to 2012. 

And here's more on why ABQ is the USA's cellar dweller when it comes to your home price increasing--news you will probably only get from our real deal biz coverage:

Real-estate data firm Trulia. . . looked at data like home values and vacancy rates in more than 350 metro areas. . .They combined that data with labor market indicators like wage growth, employment growth, and the change in the unemployment rate. The logic is that even if housing prices are rising, that might do a homeowner little long-term financial good if the area the home is in has little wage growth and lousy employment prospects.

ABQ home prices here have actually declined over 5% since the housing market elsewhere began recovering., while they have jumped 30% in the 20 city Case-Shiller Index. If it's any solace our neighbor to the south--El Paso was the 10th worst place to own a home in the last four years. Values there were off over 3%.

If folks have less equity in their homes, they tend to restrain spending. And then there's the idea of selling the house and making a tidy profit to finance retirement. ABQ is not going to mimic the booms of Phoenix or Denver and that's fine but neither do we want to become a no-growth zone like some kind of modern day Appalachia.

THE ABQ ZEITGEIST 

After years of unrelenting gloomy news about the city and as we approach the end of this year, an acceptance--if not a defensiveness--seems to be settling in--that ABQ's decades-long bull run is over and not returning.

The educated Millennials are headed out, the lower income strata is growing and increasingly dependent on food stamps, Medicaid, housing subsides and are here to stay. The lower middle and middle classes are now two income households employed in the city's service economy (call centers etc.) and make a go of it. As usual, the upper strata is fine but dwindling in the face of ongoing government cutbacks and as they age.

Looking ahead to 2016 and beyond, ABQ may remain much the same.

Its crime problem will intensify as the pie here remains meager, the chaos in the educational system will get more severe as those who can afford private schools will take advantage of them; there will be a continued mild expansion of low-wage jobs that match the skills of the workforce; health care will also grow as the population here ages and as even more lower income citizens become Medicaid eligible; there could be some influx into the city from rural New Mexico which continues to depopulate; the economic impact of Sandia and Kirtland AFB will have upswings but over the next decade will continue to drift slowly downward; UNM enrollment could be a surprise to the downside, with officials desperately seeking students to keep funding intact; political leadership will remain status quo--whether it be Dem or R--reflecting the distaste for politics among the general public who now leave voting in city elections to the elderly and generally conservative.

ABQ's appeal will remain the same in the new era, even as the economy limits the numbers who will be able to take advantage of it.

And what is that appeal? The city's setting amid natural splendor; the enviable climate; the lack of big city traffic jams; the laid back feel; the offbeat, vibrant arts scene; the unique cuisine and the embrace (for the most part) of cultural diversity.

If you were ranking Albuquerque on possessing a distinct identity it would be near the top of the 350 metro areas in the nation, not near the bottom as it has been on so many lists. In the years ahead that is what will soften the blow of watching a city that once trotted ahead like a young pony on the open range now settling into its home on the pasture.

I'm Joe Monahan reporting to you from Albuquerque.

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(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2015

Sen. Sanchez

Put a lid on the season of peace talk. We'll be battling in La Politica until they light the final luminaria on Christmas Eve. And we can thank The Donald for that.

With all eyes peeled to the GOP effort to take over the state Senate in 2016, Senate Majority Leader Michael Sanchez moved to put Gov. Martinez and the R's on the defensive and using their leading presidential candidate as his foil:

Gov. Martinez's opposition to the state's immigrant driver's license law is similar to GOP presidential hopeful Donald Trump's racially charged comments, the state's top Democratic Senate leader said. . .Senate Majority Leader Sanchez, D-Belen, told reporters the Republican governor's efforts to repeal the law and her "lies" about pending federal Real ID requirements were "almost Trumpism" since they were dividing New Mexico residents. "We're family in New Mexico," Sanchez said. "All this governor has done is try to divide us."

Well, we may be family, but we ain't a happy one. State politics is as polarized as it is in DC.

The Guv blasted back at her archenemy, again blaming him for failing to repeal driver's licenses for undocumented immigrants. Dems reloaded, pointing out that a bipartisan bill compliant with federal Real ID requirements passed the Senate this year with major support from R's but Susana still refused to compromise.

Trump and other assorted GOP lunacy that puts Martinez on the hot seat is an early Xmas gift for state Dems, but will Trump be the gift that keeps giving throughout next year's campaign? The D's are knocking on wood.

As we've noted time and again, this is a machine that throws long and deep on offense but gets weak in the knees when it comes to defense. Perhaps that's because for five years the Dems have mostly sat there and took their whipping. Now with the Senate threatened the Dems are playing a bit of offense. They better get used to it or it could be Minority Leader Sanchez or Lt. Governor John "The Tiebreaker" Sanchez.

BUDGET MYSTERIES

If the state's new projection that oil will average $49 a barrel for the budget year that starts next July goes bust, it will cost the state about $10 million in taxes and royalties for each dollar the projection falls short.

With $37 oil we're about $12 short of that goal or a $120 million hit to the $6 billion plus budget. That would mean  $112 million in "new money" available for the next budget year--not the $232 million the state broadcast this week.

But let's get out of bean counter world and into our real deal biz coverage.

The state has irresponsibly slashed tax rates under both Governors Richardson and Martinez and thus is losing literally hundreds of millions of dollars in revenues a year. All that tax cutting was supposed to stimulate the economy here. It did not and that is the defining fallacy of the Santa Fe budget hawks and their chief advocate, the chairman of the Senate Finance Committee.

Even a partial restoration of the previous corporate tax rate and an uptick in the personal income rate for only the wealthiest taxpayers would solve much of the budget woes facing the state.

But those who hold sway in Santa Fe are happy with the shrunken size of government and constant tight times. They say the government that governs least governs best. They seem oblivious to the fact that New Mexico is now labeled the worst run state in the nation and that all their tax cuts did not deliver what they promised. You might liken them to the climate change deniers, holding on to a notion long discredited but using their monied megaphones to keep their big fib alive.

What we need in Santa Fe are some additions to our distinguished list of "No Bullshit Economists." That list is currently: Dr. Chris Erickson at NMSU, ABQ's Dr. Kelly O'Donnell and the economists at the Brookings Institution. NMSU's Jim Peach is under consideration. (Come on UNM's BBER, we need more straight talk).

GONE KAPUT

The argument that continued increases in oil production will bail us out despite the crashing oil prices just went kaput:

According to (state) data, 12.7 million barrels of oil were produced in the state in August — a number that fell to 12.1 million in September. . . If production levels continue dropping and the price of oil fails to increase, which some experts say is likely, New Mexico businesses will be affected. From layoffs in the actual industry to a decrease in construction, to a decrease in the amount of traffic that restaurants and retail outlets in oil town areas see.

And the assertion of Dr. Tom Clifford, head of the NM Department of Finance and Administration, that lower prices at the gas pump will give NM consumers an extra $600 million to spend and that will translate into higher state tax revenues, is questionable (not withstanding this wish and hope piece from the Santa Fe paper). Has the crash in national gas prices led to a big boost in consumer spending? Tourism is helped some, but overall?  No.

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(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2015

How's this for timing? Just as Martinez administration and legislative economists Monday were rolling out somewhat Pollyannish revenue estimates for the budget year that starts July 1, the oil market crashed yet again taking the price below the psychologically important $40 a barrel mark and pushing the state's fiscal standing further into doubt.

The budget estimators owned up some, saying there will now be about $232 million in "new money" for the Legislature to divvy up in its 30 day session beginning in January, a decline of over $60 million from their previous estimate. But the bean counters continue to look the other way at that unsightly oil crash as seen in their own report:

If market prices do not recover as expected, general fund revenue may decrease by $100 million or more in FY16 and FY17. It is not known whether increased production in the Permian basin will be sufficient to eliminate this outstanding price risk. In FY15 oil production grew 25%. Production is now more than double the level that prevailed over the last 30 years.

Here's our real deal biz coverage:

Oil prices are crashing and could stay crashed for months or even years, costing the state tens of millions in revenue; state gross receipts tax collections are growing mainly because of increased audits not more economic activity; an ill-advised corporate tax cut is now costing the state tens of millions more than first estimated and overall job and economic growth continues to stagnate.

 And that's all from the official document we linked to--not our opinion.

With the 2016 legislative elections fast approaching the Martinez administration--via Dr. Tom Clifford of the Department of Finance and Administration--seems especially intent on propping up the revenue estimates and the general state of the economy. So much so that State Senate Finance Committee Chairman John Arthur Smith is pronouncing himself "strongly suspicious" of the latest estimates.

Regardless of the political positioning over the state's $6.2 general fund budget the real deal biz coverage bottom line remains:

New Mexico is in a secular (long-term) bear market with key areas of the economy (oil and gas) continuing to shrink, wages stagnating or dropping, increasing poverty rates and the out migration of people apparently going uninterrupted. No wonder the Guv would rather spend her time snapping pictures of Holly Holm.

CRIME CREEP

Berry & Chief Eden

This one caught our eye because it is yet another violent incident in the well-off far NE Heights (in the Sandia Foothills east of Tramway and Montgomery) where crime is supposed to be at bay and where Mayor Berry draws his main political support:

When two or three people wearing ski masks attempted to break into a car at the top of a steep driveway in the foothills Sunday morning, police say a man who lives in the house confronted them. He shot one man multiple times, police say. The neighborhood of large houses at the base of the Sandia Mountains is usually very quiet and peaceful, Lewis said.  “It’s weird all of a sudden this happening Sunday morning in broad daylight,” Lewis said.

And there are plenty more gun owners out there these days with the media reporting earlier in the year of a run on gun shops in the wake of a violent crime outbreak in the city.

MONITORING THE JUDGES.

First, Gov. Martinez's new talking points on DWI and then the counterpoint.

Gov. Martinez wants to step up roundups of drunken-driving fugitives and have citizen watchdogs monitor judges who are routinely lenient on drunken-driving suspects. Those are parts of new executive orders the Republican announced Monday to "crack down" on crimes related to drunken driving. The moves comes days after police say a man accused of drunken driving killed three people in an Albuquerque crash.

And the counterpoint from a reader:

Don't we already have Mothers Against Drunk Driving (MADD) to do this? What about our dying economy, our failing education system, the ongoing corruption on the gov's watch, and our biggest city, controlled by the gov's cronies, collapsing under the weight of violent crime and police corruption? I can't believe much of the press and the public keep letting her get away with it.

Speaking of the press, Reader Bill Diven writes:

The ABQ Journal hit four-for-four on Sunday 1) expounding again on locking up more suspects without bail; 2) touting kick-fight champ Holly Holm with a heavy-paper souvenir section; 3) wrapping a gun dealer's Red Tag weapons sale around ad inserts; and 4) spreading a Bekins Van Lines ad across the bottom of the front page. And so goes poor Albuquerque: One for the money, two for the show, three to get ready and four to go.

And don't step on those Alligator shoes, Bill.

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Gov. Martinez's office responds to the 24/7 Wall St. financial website report (not to be confused with the Wall Street Journal) that New Mexico has the worst run state in the nation. Take a look:

The governor is working to reform and improve education because it is the key to lift people and their families out of poverty. And we are working to make our economy less dependent on the dysfunction in Washington, D.C. by attracting more job creators and creating more private sector employment. She encourages all those who have simply embraced the decades-long failed status quo to choose reform instead.

The Governor may be "working" but is she delivering? A court just recently stopped her major education policy in its tracks, finding the teacher evaluation tests the administration so vigorously pursued are deeply flawed. Meantime, her major education triumph in the Legislature has been approval of a symbolic bill that gives A to F grades to the public schools. How's that working out for you?

For five years Martinez has claimed our state's status of being last in the nation in reading proficiency is because we don't hold back third graders who don't test well. Never mind the merits of the argument, how about realizing that after five years you might need to craft a different policy that could win legislative approval?

But what good would that do? A bipartisan bill to solve the state's driver's license problem with undocumented immigrants passed the Senate this year with major Republican support (it was co-sponsored by Senate GOP Leader Ingle) only to be rejected by the Governor.

And then there is the "Washington dysfunction" the administration blames for all the state's economic woes. What about the five long years the administration has had to attract "job creators" and still come up empty handed? Is that all Washington's fault as well?

In the end, the Governor and her political machine revert to their default setting--that the state is the worst run because it has always been that way--the "decades-long failed status quo" as her office puts it. The solution, she avers, is too simply "embrace" her inchoate economic and educational policies and all will be well.

Instead of imagination, innovation, negotiation and results in education policy and policy across the board we get rancor, bullying, defensiveness, heated political attacks, vendettas and the passing of the buck to leaders of the past. But you would never know it if all you see is the pseudo-smiling governor posing with third graders as a compliant media eggs her on.

That, my friends, is a political strategy, not a governing strategy. And that's why you live in the worst run state in the United States.

(The ABQ Journal has our permission to run all or part of that commentary).

TEARING UP TERRELL

Steve Terrell

We see that Steve Terrell, the longtime chief political reporter for the Santa Fe New Mexican, has finally come under attack from the Governor's political machine in the aftermath of the paper's coverage of the federal grand jury investigation of Martinez's chief political adviser Jay McCleskey. That probe involves possible campaign finance irregularities.

Terrell, a respected reporter on both sides of the aisle, has carved out a middle ground in his coverage of the administration, preserving both his credibility and access. But that was then and this is now. He now joins other New Mexican reporters and its editor in being eviscerated by the machine in the aftermath of their reporting on the McCleskey revelations.

Terrell is being accused by the machine (in the guise of their operative and former GOP State Senator Rod Adair) of failing to mention in a 2014 election article critical of ABQ GOP State Representative Conrad James that Terrell's son worked for James' foe--Democrat Elizabeth Thomson. The problem with that? The James article was authored by another New Mexican reporter--not Terrell--who recently disclosed his son's involvement with Thomson when he authored a piece on James' retirement announcement.

The Adair attack on Terrell was tweeted out by McCleskey BFF and former Bernalillo County Sheriff Darren White, even though until now White and Terrell have been friendly with each other on social media. But now that White's longtime benefactor is under the gun, Terrell goes under the bus. We won't say we told you so, Steve. But we told you so.

The bottom line is that the Guv's machine continues to feverishly work to keep any aggressive reporting at bay by attacking those who engage in it. It serves as a warning to others who might go down that path and it can be quite effective. (Witnesses the mindless babbling you still get in the Machine controlled media over Martinez as a possible VP candidate).

The cowering of the media in the Martinez era is one of the big untold stories that your blog has brought to your attention and that's now starting to publicly surface. And that's why. . .

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That's Me

On the other hand, the glorification of fighter Holly Holm combined with the notoriety ABQ has received from the "Breaking Bad" TV series may not be the best PR for a city where the violent crime rate has soared and whose police department is under a federal consent decree. . . .

Do you get the vibe that deep down ABQ Mayor Richard Berry is kind of afraid?:

Since May, Berry and his spokesperson have repeatedly failed, or refused, to answer questions from ABQ Free Press on a wide range of public-policy issues, including the $100 million bus rapid transit project he wants to put on Central Avenue and the retention bonuses for 19 members of the Albuquerque Police Department’s command staff.

Please, not again. New Mexico has the dubious distinction of being named by 24/7 Wall St. as the worst run state in the nation:

New Mexico is the worst-run state in the country with some of the worst social and economic outcomes. . . More than one in every 10 households in the state earns less than $10,000 each year, the second highest proportion after Mississippi. The state also struggles with one of the nation’s highest violent crime rates. Close to 600 violent crimes are reported each year per 100,000 state residents, one of the highest rates nationwide. Like a number of other states towards the bottom of this list, more people left New Mexico than arrived from April of 2010 through the middle of last year. . . 

Maybe someone will ask Gov. Martinez what she thinks of that and what her plans are to turn it around? Oops. We forgot. It has always been that way, always will be that way, our political leadership has nothing to do with it and if you don't like it you can get the hell out of here. Okay, now everyone back to the Holly Holm parade coverage.

The Association of Commerce and Industry says:

ACI has partnered with other local businesses and organizations to generate a survey for millennials who have left the state. If you know any millennials from New Mexico who are now working somewhere else, please ask them to take a few minutes to complete the survey.

They need a survey to find out the millennials are leaving because the job market here sucks?

KILLING OBAMACARE

Republicans in the  US Senate Thursday night voted to unravel Obamacare. NM Senator Udall said the bill passed by a vote of 52-47, though it is expected to be vetoed by the president, and the Senate vote is far short of what would be needed to override that veto:

. . . Five and a half years ago, thousands of New Mexicans couldn't afford to see a doctor when they got sick. Many more were one major illness away from bankruptcy. . . and they could be denied coverage for a pre-existing condition. . . Today, over 230,000 more New Mexicans have insurance, and — thanks to the Affordable Care Act — health care is one of the strongest parts of our economy. Most importantly, I hear from New Mexicans regularly about how, thanks to the law, they can get life-saving care that they couldn't afford before.

We're hearing the same stories, Senator, and are perplexed by the hardcore opposition. In some cases, small business owners tell us their insurance costs have gone up. Maybe more work needs to be done in that regard. But with more than 230, 000 New Mexicans now insured, why make the perfect the enemy of the good?

KICK SOME

Judge Brack

NM US District Court Judge Robert Brack is overseeing APD reforms for the use of excessive force mandated by the Department of Justice. But clearly it is time for the judge--putting it directly--to kick some ass:

APD has failed to submit an acceptable use-of-force policy for its officers as required by its settlement agreement with the U.S. Department of Justice, a special monitor in the case said. . . .James Ginger’s report covers APD’s progress from Feb. 1 to the end of May. Because there is no use-of-force policy, APD officers aren’t being properly trained in use of force, Ginger told U.S. District Court Judge Robert Brack. That means that cops can’t be properly supervised and judged on their use of force, which could lead to endless appeals by officers if they are disciplined for excessive use of force, Ginger said. Ginger submitted his 200-page report on the status of APD’s progress on the 280 goals established by last year’s settlement agreement with DOJ. So far, APD is in compliance with just 1.4 percent of those goals.

In compliance with only 1.4 percent of the goals? Come on Judge, if they're not laughing at your court they are at the least sporting big smirks. Or worse, they believe you are a softie and in cahoots with them because you are a Bush appointee. It's the APD brass who should be bending over and getting the boot on the butt--not you, sir.

THE BOTTOM LINES

A couple of corrections: It's Veronica Garcia--not Gonzales--who heads up NM Voices for Children . . .And Democratic Public Regulation Commission (PRC) candidate Cynthia Hall is not now employed at the PRC. She was once an attorney with the agency.

This is the home of New Mexico politics.

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(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2015