Monty Newman
While the congressional race in the big city has turned into a sleeping aid more effective than Sominex, the contest to represent our state's southern cities in the hallowed halls of D.C. has the hopefuls running like their shirt tails are on fire. And Wednesday the GOP race for the Southern NM seat got hotter than a Lordsburg parking lot. The National Association of Realtors did a third party money dump on behalf of former Hobbs Mayor Monty Newman, putting up $200,000 in TV spots in ABQ and El Paso. Combined with an earlier $250,000 for direct mail and research for Monty, it adds up to $450,000 and a game-changer in the most wide-open of the four congressional battles being waged across our Land of Enchantment.

Restaurant chain owner Ed Tinsley was the first to hear the new campaign house being built for Monty. He protested in a news release that the 51 year old Newman is really a "serial tax raiser" and big spender, not the limited government, low tax advocate the Realtors portray him as. But Ed, who had his heart broken when he lost the GOP nod for the southern seat against Steve Pearce in 2002, is playing catch-up. He could have come with big April money and scared the Realtors away from Newman, but didn't. Now, the proverbial cat is not only out of the bag, it's morphing into a lion.

Aubrey Dunn was another GOP contender grabbing for the aspirin bottle when he heard the Newman news. The open secret in southern congressional politics is that it takes big wins in just two or three counties to secure the GOP nomination. Newman is now positioned to take his home county of Lea; Otero appears to be Dunn's. Who can add another SE prize like Chaves or Eddy? And what of the big prize outside of the SE--Dona Ana? With the oil patch being split into pieces, that is now an even more highly prized battleground, with the Realtors blasting the air for Monty there on El Paso TV. Tinsley says he is getting into Cruces via cable. We assume Dunn is too.

Strategists suggest that Tinsley--with no strong geographic base--may now have to go negative to hold his place in this race. He has a ranch in Lincoln County, but his ties are not as strong to the district as those of Newman and Dunn. Dunn has to be eyeing his bank balance as he contemplates what may be in store. He said he would not spend more than $300,000 of his own cash, an assumption that could come under pressure if the D.C. realtors continue to come with bricks and mortar. Here's their ad.


MONTY POWER

And here's a taste of what $250,000 can put in the mailboxes. Click on it for a full look at what is terrorizing Newman's opposition.

We chatted up Realtor Newman late Wednesday. He said he isn't worried that voters will see him as a one trick pony and in the service of the real estate business. He pointed to his record as Hobbs mayor and long ties to the district. Still, the newspaper editorial writers are sure to question the sudden interest of a powerful out of state interest group playing in their backyard.

While waiting for southern trigger-pulling, Dunn's campaign dunned us for saying the other day that Aubrey had already pulled the trigger: "The contrast/comparison mail we sent went to 130 Republican convention delegates, not primary voters. All of our mail to primary voters has been POSITIVE."

But it may be just a matter of time before the south is carpet bombed with nuke ads. The candidates fear is that two of the three leading contenders get into combat, leaving the third "positive" candidate positioned to run clean and up the middle. That's why everyone is being quite cautious in going negative early. No one wants to give up the chance of being the clean winner. The other two players are Earl Greer and Greg Sowards.

This is now a game that calls for expert and mistake-free political coaching. It is that close.

LET'S GO NORTH

While the spotlight was blazing on the southern race, in the north one of the leading candidates has actually gone dark. Dem hopeful Ben Ray Lujan hasn't been seen on the TV airwaves for a week. His campaign says they are "retooling" their ads, but consultants rarely put their candidates on the tube and then take them off. The fact is it takes over $100,000 a week to buy a decent presence and Lujan is going to need even more as we approach the final stretch. His chief competitor, Santa Fe multimillionaire developer Don Wiviott, is showing no let up on the tube, continuing to spend that nearly $1 million he has put up in personal cash. He won't have the screen to himself for long, however. The Lujan camp says their man will be back on the air next week.

THE RIVER CITY BEAT

Former Hobbs Mayor Monty Newman was elected to a two year term as chairman of the New Mexico Republican Party at a Saturday afternoon convention of the GOP State Central Committee. Newman defeated attorney Nina Martinez of Bernalillo County.

Newman was backed by Gov-elect Martinez and Rep. Steve Pearce.

John Billingsley of southern NM was elected first vice chair; ABQ's Robert Perea second vice chair; Peter Shams-Avari of ABQ was elected secretary and Bill Redmond of Los Alamos as Treasurer.

There were no vote totals released on the Newman-Martinez race, so we don't know right now if Newman won overwhelmingly. Nina Martinez campaigned for the job until the end and had the support of many backers of failed GOP Guv candidates Allen Weh and Doug Turner.

The chairmanship is primarily about raising money for the next election cycle. Newman had the edge in that category. But by staying in the race Nina Martinez signaled that there are still some fences for the Governor-elect to mend.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2010 Not for reproduction without permission of the author

Mayor Monty Newman
Who says those near-Texans in Hobbs can't have their share of La Politica? They are certainly contributing to this historic year, fielding a US Senate candidate and now, not one, but perhaps two heavyweight congressional contenders. Word is circulating among insiders that Hobbs Mayor Monty Newman is close to joining the race for the GOP nomination for the southern Congressional seat. Newman, a longtime realtor in Lea County, passes the Alligator smell test and gets mentioned here even if he has not made it official because he has a political base, name ID, and the ability to raise money to seriously compete with Ed Tinsley of Lincoln County. Tinsley says he has raised over $220,000 and is willing to commit personal wealth. Insiders tell us that Newman also could draw on personal wealth to finance a campaign.

Newman would also appear to be positioned to be a strong challenger to restaurant chain owner Tinsley because his strongest counties would appear to be Lea, Eddy and Chaves where the pros say 40% of the GOP primary vote will come from.

Hobbs, in far SE NM, is in the middle of an economic boom with realtor Newman benefiting, not to mention all those oil and gas guys celebrating oil prices toying with the $100 a barrel level. That's a lot of potential campaign contributions.

If Newman runs, Hobbs and Lea County will have a full complement of candidates on the field. Congressman Steve Pearce of Hobbs is seeking the GOP nod for the US Senate seat. Hobbs oil man Harry Teague is a leading contender for the Dem nod for the southern US House seat and young Bob Cornelius who hails from Tatum in Lea County is also in the GOP race for the southern Congressional seat.

Hobbs' slogan is, "It All Happens Here." We don't know what they do on Saturday night to keep it hopping, but when it comes to politics, they are living up to their billing.

FIRST GOP DEBATE

Alamogordo Republicans can't wait for the election year to start. The Otero County GOP is sponsoring their party's first debate of the '08 election season, hosting the GOP candidates for the 2nd CD next Tuesday at 7 p.m. at the Willie Estrada Memorial Civic Center. Now they have us wondering who Willie Estrada was.

MONEY QUESTION

If the state surplus is forecast to be $369 million and we need $147 in new money for the Medicaid health program and $200 million to finish building the Rail Runner, does that mean the surplus is already spent? If so, that was quick.

MAKING UP

That little tiff between State Senate Minority Whip Lee Rawson of Las Cruces and Fred Mondragón the Secretary-designate for the NM Economic development department, appears to have ended with a truce. Here is a response from Fred's office to Republican Lee's comments on our blog Wednesday saying Fred should not be calling himself the Secretary yet because he hasn't been confirmed by the Senate.

"...Mondragón has been using the title “New Mexico Economic Development Department Cabinet Secretary Designate” on all official correspondence and communiqué since October, shortly after Senator Rawson brought the issue to the attention of EDD representatives at an LFC hearing at which the Secretary Designate was not present. At a subsequent LFC hearing on November 14, Cabinet Secretary Designate Mondragón personally and publicly apologized for the oversight directly to Sen. Rawson and the Committee."

If you get the feeling a lot of Senators, both Dems and R's, are ready to ride herd on the Administration at next month's legislative session, you may be on to something.

THE BOTTOM LINES

An ABQ newcomer, attorney David Pyne, says he will seek the GOP nod for the West Side state senate seat that Joe Carraro says he is giving up to seek the GOP nomination for the ABQ Congressional seat. Pyne has lived in ABQ for about three years. State Rep. Tom Anderson has said he is interested in that seat too, but has not made an announcement.

E-mail your news and comments, and tune in again soon.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2007
Not for reproduction without permission of the author

Monty Newman
Some old fault lines are appearing as the newly resurrected state Republican Party prepares to select a new chairman Saturday. GOP Senior Alligators have been gaming the action for us and here's how it tracks.
NICE WORK

Rep. Herrell

Southern GOP Congressional hopeful Monty Newman was knocked to the canvas at this weekend's GOP pre-primary convention. He's now up and about but he's staggering as he reels from the blow delivered to him by Alamogordo State Rep. Yvette Herrell, his chief rival for the June 5 nomination.

Delegates voting to decide which candidates will be placed on the June primary ballot gave Herrell 58% of their votes, an impressive win in a five way race. Newman, a former Mayor of Hobbs, secured only 26 percent support. The other three candidates lagged. It took 20% to get ballot designation. The candidates that failed to reach that mark can file extra petition signatures to get on the ballot, but the delegates essentially narrowed this to a Herrell-Newman contest, and it should be a good one.

Newman's forces knew they had a tough task at the pre-primary but the scope of the defeat was not anticipated. Newman could only say after the debacle that he was focused on voters outside the convention hall and not a "symbolic victory among insiders."

But hold on. Newman is one of the biggest insiders of them all, having been a former chairman of the NM Republican Party. And his drubbing was due in large part to his decision to associate with another insider--the controversial Jay McCleskey, the longtime adviser and political enforcer for Gov. Martinez who Newman has hired to run his effort.

The large anti-Martinez/McCleskey faction in the GOP was having none of it and smacked Newman down hard. An insider sympathetic to Herrell said It could be a turning point for her:

With activists so solidly and decisively behind her she's going to be hard to beat. Financially, I expect her to do better than Monty in this reporting period. His numbers have been inflated by donors giving him both primary and general election contributions. If you take the general election money out, Yvette is already bringing in more, plus she has a vast majority of support from the GOP legislative caucus.

Those are fighting words for McCleskey (what words aren't?) who can be expected to bring out the slash and burn tactics against Herrell that he is noted for but which also got him in so much trouble with his own party.

The money will indeed be key. That's been Newman's boast from the start--that he is far outraising her and the nomination is his. But if the Herrell pre-primary win changes the psychology and the cash starts flowing, she, not Newman will be in line to replace Rep. Steve Pearce in the seat.

We say replace Pearce because while the Dems have fielded a number of candidates the district has yet to be targeted by the national Dems and is sympathetic to President Trump. While not tantamount to getting elected the June GOP primary is close to it. That's why Herrell's resounding victory is important. Newman could not keep her off her horse. She's out of the corral now and riding hard. More as it develops.

THAT'S THE TICKET

Here they are--your 2018 New Mexico Republican gubernatorial ticket. Steve Pearce and his running mate Michelle Garcia Holmes made the rounds at Saturday's ABQ pre-primary and were greeted warmly. They are both running unopposed. This may be shaping up to be a Democratic year but Republicans could have done worse by going with a sacrificial lamb. Pearce is not that, not by a long shot.

Garcia Holmes has recently switched from independent to Republican. She picked up valuable campaign experience when she ran for ABQ mayor last year and she works well for the R's in the optics department. She's a relatively youthful Hispanic woman who will contrast well with the Dems, especially if Rep. Michelle  Lujan Grisham is the nominee.

The Guv race looks good for the D's but Pearce is going to put on a show and if he can force some fumbles, who knows what might happen. The Democrats have their pre-primary convention March 10.

SO BUSTED

Andrea Romero, who is challenging Santa Fe State Rep. Carl Trujillo in the June primary, you are so busted. There's no other way to say it. Look:

. . . Officials from Northern New Mexico traveled recently to the nation’s capital on a trip sponsored by the Regional Coalition of LANL Communities, a public agency that has largely operated under the radar. . . On the first night. . . the group, including Santa Fe Mayor Javier Gonzales. . . gathered for dinner at Casa Luca, an upscale Italian eatery (near) the White House. . .The three-course meal for 16. . . came out to $1,850. The alcohol alone totaled $380 and included two $70 bottles of Valdipiatta wine, four Birra Moretti beers that cost $8 each and a $28 glass of WhistlePig whiskey. Though the coalition’s travel policies expressly prohibit alcohol as an allowable expense, Executive Director Andrea Romero submitted the $1,850 invoice to Los Alamos County, which serves as the agency’s fiscal agent, and was reimbursed. . . The reimbursement for alcohol and other payments issued in violation of the coalition’s travel policies have created a big headache for Romero, who is now under the gun for allowing taxpayer-funded excesses as she seeks a seat in the state Legislature. Romero said that politics are at play.

No kidding politics are at play, Andrea. This looks like a nicely executed Trujillo Movida and there's much more material in that news report, enough to fill a large mailbox with Trujillo campaign flyers.

Imagine the flyer with the the bottle of WhistlePig Rye Whiskey on the cover. That ought to get their attention. Not to mention that Romero is getting paid $140,000 a year for a job with minimal duties. That ought to go over well with humble Norteños.

That pretty much spells out Romero's chances of upsetting Trujillo in the primary. For November, the district is all D the time. No R's need apply.

But we still don't know who the official was who ordered the $28 shot of WhistlePig. That can't be you, Javier. You have enough trouble already. In any event, Andrea, Cheers! Or something. . . .

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It's the race for Governor that tops the Monday blog.

The two men who seek to take Michelle Lujan Grisham down a notch and get the contest for the Democratic gubernatorial nomination in play are now squabbling. That's a hope fulfilled for her and allows her to go unscathed with the June 5 primary now less than two months away.

State Senator Joe Cervantes was a happy camper last week in the aftermath of a court victory he won against Jeff Apodaca. It means he won't get kicked off the ballot over his petition signatures (unless there's an unlikely Supreme Court reversal). But Cervantes wasn't happy enough to stop him from floating a conspiracy theory about Apodaca, the aggressive ABQ businessman. The Dona Ana County lawmaker walked out none other than Jay McCleskey, the controversial political consultant to Gov. Martinez, accusing Apodaca's campaign of playing footsie with the leader of the once vaunted Martinez political machine:

I think the Apodaca campaign is getting some of its advice from the Martinez campaign people. I’m told that there may be all kinds of games at play here.

That was a reference to the rumors floating about that McCleskey has met with Apodaca about his Governor campaign and may be providing him with advice. Not good because McCleskey is now a toxic figure in Democratic as well as most Republican  political circles. Apodaca's campaign manager moved to put out the fire calling Cervantes' claim "laughable" and "completely untrue" adding:

That’s actually kind of crazy. I don’t know where he came up with that.

Crazy or not the charge that Apodaca and McCleskey are collaborating is such a nightmare scenario for Dems who have been subjected to 8 years of browbeating by the brash consultant that it is sure to have them digging through Jeff's closet for any signs of the political bogeyman--just as Joe hoped.

JAY'S NEW WORLD

McCleskey

Despite running two successful gubernatorial campaigns on behalf of Gov. Martinez, ousting Senate Dem Leader Michael Sanchez and engineering a brief GOP takeover of the state House, McCleskey has been mostly shunned by his fellow R's. That's because he turned his guns on those in the GOP who would not play his version of hardball with him and there were plenty who would not.

However, he has managed to secure a consulting contract with former Hobbs Mayor Monty Newman who is seeking the GOP nomination for the southern congressional seat. But that's already turned problematic, with Newman getting crushed at the GOP February preprimary convention, a development knowledgeable R's blame on his hiring of the resented McCleskey. But that doesn't mean Monty is out of the game. Far from it.

That point was made clear when the AP was fed a story by the Newman forces that called into question the ethics of the woman who humiliated him at that preprimary convention. The news:

(Alamogordo State Representative and congressional candidate Yvette Herrell) failed to disclose that her real estate company earned nearly a half-million dollars in contracts with two state agencies over five years, according to an analysis of campaign finance disclosure records by The AP. The review of documents found Herrell's company, Herrell Properties, took in $440,000 by renting property to the Taxation and Revenue Department and  the Environment Department since 2013. However, she did not disclose that income on ethics disclosure statements, but listed herself as the company's owner,

Not an explosive charge but still a nick on the neck that, of course, will soon be followed by negative TV ads courtesy of Newman who has an advantage over Herrell in fundraising.

Newman showed over $356,000 in cash on hand at the end of last year, compared to Herrell's $202,000. Federal finance reports for the first quarter have been filed but are not yet public. Herrell was restricted from raising money while she attended the 30 day legislative session. That will hurt. Newman is well connected to the SE energy business where the boom times are back and which he can tap for campaign cash.

The Newman-Herrell battle is a kind of proxy battle for the future direction of the state GOP. A win by Newman-McCleskey would give them a foot back in the door that has been closed to them by the likes of GOP National Committeeman Harvey Yates and others who became disgusted with Gov. Martinez and have taken control. Soon-to-be GOP gubernatorial nominee Steve Pearce is squarely in the Yates camp. He has not publicly endorsed a candidate for the congressional seat he is giving up but you don't need a detective to figure out where he's at.

(There are two other GOP hopefuls in the primary, but this one is Newman vs. Herrell all day long)

STEVE VS. MICHELLE

Rep. Pearce

The state got a brief preview of a possible Pearce-Lujan Grisham match-up when they appeared before business leaders last week. It was their takes on national security and the big budgets it provides to the state that proved the most newsworthy:

"We need to be a good host, not always compliant, but a good host," Pearce said, adding that state leaders need to acknowledge the real possibility that other states could successfully woo the labs and functions. Lujan Grisham dismissed that idea, saying " those labs are not going anywhere."

That was a bit of an eyebrow raiser for the ABQ congresswoman, not because anyone expects the labs to go anywhere but the concern, as Pearce indicated, is how much of them will stay here. There is a serious play under way to move the billions of dollars for upcoming plutonium "pit" production to a facility in red-state South Carolina. Numerous security and environmental lapses are another concern that could influence the future of Los Alamos.

ABQ's Sandia National Labs has better future visibility than Los Alamos. The Trump budget pumps up the national nuclear budget. However, in the not too distant future Kirtland Air Force Base--where Sandia is situated--will likely be subjected to another dreaded BRAC review. The Base Realignment and Closure study could lead to an eventual reduction in the KAFB mission.

Lujan Grisham's cocksure statement that the Labs are "not going anywhere" may offer a political palliative to New Mexico but it does not cover the nuance of the matter. That her statement in some quarters was read as a taunting of the Trump administration, which holds sway over the billions of funding for the labs, gives the possible future governor another reason to regroup before Pearce starts chipping away.

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The Brian Colón/Hector Balderas bromance shows no signs of cooling. In fact, Attorney General Hector will be the featured guest as Colón opens his mayoral campaign headquarters Thursday evening in ABQ's SE Heights.

The two Dem lawyers have long been friends, plotting their futures together. But the ant at their political picnic today is State Auditor and fellow Dem Tim Keller who is leading in the early insider mayoral polls for the October 3 election. Colón is running third behind Keller and Republican Dan Lewis. Only the two top vote getters will advance to a Nov. 7 run-off, assuming no candidate in the crowded field pulls in 50 percent of the vote needed for an outright victory.

The Colón crowd sees Keller as an upstart and outsider who thrives on naked ambition. The Keller crowd sees Colón and Balderas as throwbacks to the patrón system replete with shady undertones.

Balderas can help Colón because Colón is of Puerto Rican descent and not a native Hispanic like Balderas who was born in Wagon Mound. Among the major candidates Colón may have the best shot of grabbing a large share of the Hispanic vote. GOP businessman Ricardo Chaves and Dem Michelle Garcia Holmes are native Hispanics but are battling it out in the lower tier of the eight person contest. Giving Balderas top billing at his campaign bash is the opening salvo in Colón's quest for this important ethnic bloc.

KELLER VS. BALDERAS

Both Keller and Balderas have been actively investigating claims that Presbyterian Healthcare, the largest employer in the city, has not paid its fair share of premium taxes to the state. Balderas outscored Keller in the PR department when he went nuclear on Presbyterian, amping up his rhetoric and vowing to extract unpaid taxes from the healthcare giant who he accuses of fraud. Keller has been critical of Presbyterian but more circumspect in his statements. Balderas has been criticized for failing to wait for the completion of Keller's audit before filing a lawsuit against Presbyterian.

Happier times

Also, Balderas may have reaped PR from the Pres charges but it also brought digs his way, including one that asked, why, if he is so intent on fighting for the taxpayers, has he yet to do anything with the corruption investigation involving former APD Chief Ray Schultz and his dealings with Taser? It has been a couple of years since Auditor Keller dumped his damning investigation into Hector's lap which said it appeared ABQ's purchase of Taser's products was rigged by Schultz and perhaps others.

Back on Presbyterian, no doubt the bean counters there have been aggressive in holding down their taxes, but they are also easy pickings for the AG and Auditor. Big Healthcare is not beloved so bashing it comes with little political cost. But Presbyterian has labored for decades to build public trust here and has been free of major scandal.

Gov. Martinez's administration roiled the behavioral healthcare system by wrongly accusing the NM providers of fraud and replacing them with out of state providers. The charges were found to be hogwash but behavioral health (and the lives of many of its clients) was severely damaged. Certainly, if Presbyterian owes taxes, they need to pay them. But to accuse it of fraud and possible criminal behavior, as the AG is doing, and to do so without concrete evidence put before the public, is a dangerous game to be playing.

WORRY BEADS OUT

Keller's forces are nervous about what we call the half million dollar money bomb that Colón will soon start dropping. They argue (and hope) that the onetime lieutenant governor candidate doesn't have the savvy to craft a winning message. And they also argue, somewhat nervously, that Colón's cash on hand---the aforementioned half million--may be overstated because Colón may be deferring paying campaign bills until later in the campaign or even after it. Still, with Keller confined to a public financing budget of $380,000 they have good reason to use the worry beads as they ponder Colón's cash.

STILL ALL CRIME

Not all voters want the campaign to be all about crime, but how can that be when crazy stuff like this is happening here and making national news:

Police are investigating a bizarre heist of a 1,700-pound barbecue pit from a popular Albuquerque restaurant. . . Police say the black and red 200-gallon smoker was stolen early Sunday. Daniel Morgan, the owner of Pepper's Ole Fashion BBQ, says the smoker was cooking up a batch of brisket when it was taken. Morgan says most of the meat the restaurant serves is prepared in an indoor barbecue pit and he uses the custom built apparatus for catering gigs.

And the solution to the barbecue pit caper? Well, let's put it this way--it lacks red meat. The vegetarians in charge of fighting crime around here--the Mayor, police chief and DA--are again deflecting responsibility and want you to do their job for them:

The city of Albuquerque and the 2nd Judicial District Attorney’s Office announced the creation of an initiative called SCAN, or Security Camera Analytical Network. The idea, explained Mayor Berry, is to get the owners of existing security cameras at homes and businesses to voluntarily register their cameras and become part of a potentially large security camera map. Police would then look at the whole collection of video taken in a crime area for suspects or details of a crime or maybe even track an escape route.

How in the name of Powdrell's and Rudy's is that going to stop a stolen 1,700 pound barbecue pit from whizzing down the avenues of ABQ with its smoky trail pleasing the nostrils of the criminals laughing at its passing? Nice try mayor, police chief and DA, but no brisket for you.

NEWMAN POISED

Monty Newman

Alligators of the R variety are giving us heads-up on a possible significant development in the race for the GOP nomination for the southern congressional seat. They report that former NM GOP chairman and ex-Hobbs Mayor Monty Newman is poised to join the race.

Newman ran for the nomination the last time Rep. Steve Pearce vacated the seat to run for higher office. That was in 2008 when Pearce unsuccessfully sought a US Senate seat. This time Pearce is leaving the seat to try to become governor.

Newman, who is in the real estate business, had big time financial support from national real estate interests in '08 but he came up short and the nomination was won by businessman Ed Tinsley who was defeated by Dem Harry Teague in the general election.  Also in that GOP nominating race was none other than Aubrey Dunn, Jr. who is now the state land commissioner but has decided to give that post up to again run for the southern CD.

If Newman gets in he can be expected to get financial support from the oil and gas industry. They've had their differences with Aubrey. Watching this closely is Alamogordo State Rep. Yvette Herrell, the underdog candidate, who has to be hoping that Newman and Dunn start a dust-up with one another and that it benefits her.

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Rep. Herrell

Monty Newman

The race for the southern GOP congressional nomination is being described by insiders as "tight" but with State Rep. Yvette Herrell having an edge over her chief rival Monty Newman, the former mayor of Hobbs.

The final two week stretch starts today and Herrell will kick it off with a new TV ad that highlights her endorsement by the NRA, but spends most of the time reinforcing her theme that she is the only true blue conservative in the race, a jab at Newman who is nowhere near as enthusiastic about Trump as she. Some of the script:

Tired of dirty politicians lying about being conservative?. . . Yvette is a proven Trump conservative, the only candidate to support President Trump from day one of his campaign.

Liberal jaws in ABQ are dropping as they hear someone so adamantly embracing Trump, but the 40,000 or so GOP voters who will cast primary ballots in the district are among his biggest fans.

Meanwhile, Newman is staying away from hot button social issues like guns and abortion which Herrell is pounding hard. In his latest ad he works to get closer to Trump on illegal immigration, saying he opposes amnesty and sanctuary cities.

Immigration polls very high in the district so Newman has picked the right target to keep pace with Herrell, but her red meat themes may drive more turnout her way.

SILENCE OVER MONICA

The talk is how there is no talk from any politico about the aggravated DWI arrest of ABQ GOP State Rep. Monica Youngblood. To our knowledge not one lawmaker--either R or D--has made a public pronouncement regarding the weekend incident in which Youngblood, a fave of Gov. Martinez, refused to take a breath test, failed field sobriety tests and was booked and released from the BernCo jail.

Not even the new chair of the NM Dem Party, Marg Elliston, seems interested in going there. Imagine if this were Texas or California. The politicos would be all over it. But New Mexico likes to keep its dysfunction quiet, part of the reason it is so dysfunctional.

Democrats are probably savoring the moment and don't want to say anything in the hope that Youngblood will not abandon her Westside legislative seat, setting it up for a Dem pick up.

Still, no comment from anyone on Youngblood's refusal to take a breath test when she sponsored legislation that would have forced anyone who refused the test to post bail or else wait and see a judge before they were let out of jail? Lucky for her it didn't pass and she was out of the pokey a mere thirty minutes after being booked.

What does Gov. Martinez think of the arrest? GOP Guv candidate Steve Pearce? House Minority Leader Gentry? Their party is fond of taking the moral high ground but not so much in this case--at least not yet.

MUNOZ PERKS UP 

State senator and Dem land commissioner hopeful George Muñoz has been taking a clubbing on the airwaves thanks to third party environmental money. In addition, his main foe--Garrett VeneKlasen--has been up with TV ads for weeks with one of them featuring an endorsement from Senator Martin Heinrich. But Muñoz has now hit the airwaves with a clever spot.

Instead of pounding on Trump, as VeneKlasen and many other Dem hopefuls are, Muñoz opts to aim his firepower at someone who is equally unpopular in Democratic circles but has flown under the radar until now. His spot says:

He stood up for our kids and took on Gov, Martinez when she tried to cut school funding. 

That's the only reference to the outgoing Governor we've seen on the primary airwaves but it could work for Muñoz. He is the more conservative of the three Dems in the race and has appeal in the rural areas of the state where Trump's support is strongest. He does not want to alienate those rural voters. But Martinez is unpopular across the board with Democrats, sporting an approval rating in the low 30's so he uses her as his foil.

By sparing Trump but emphasizing the Republican Governor Muñoz is able to show his Dem loyalty. And he needs to. At the party's March preprimary convention he managed only 17 percent delegate support, losing big to VeneKlasen and Stephanie Garcia Richard.

However, the businessman senator has put over $200,000 of personal money into the race and will have a hefty TV buy. And if he chooses he can have a sharp comeback to those attacks on him for being anti-enviro and a pal of the oil and gas industry. It's not lost on him that VeneKlasen was a Republican until June of 2015 when he registered as a Democrat. Will VeneKlasen's newfound Dem loyalty prove his undoing or will Muñoz fall to the progressive fever? Look for a close contest for this one June 5.

LIGHT GUV CHASE

State Senator and Dem Lt. Governor candidate Howie Morales is out with a bio  TV ad which will get a light buy given the modest amount of cash in his campaign coffers. Former ABQ Dem State Rep. Rick Miera and Dona Ana County Commissioner Billy Garrett are the other two contenders.

SIX MONTH UPDATE

Mayor Keller has been in office almost half a year and he gave this update to a local biz group. He cited the challenges the city faces, including crime, poverty and drug addiction. However, the speech was given prior to the scandal over a 7 year old ABQ girl being peddled for prostitution by her parents.

Interim APD Chief Mike Geier was seen as a shoo-in for the permanent position prior to the revelation that APD did not take into custody underwear of the 7 year old that could have been a key piece of evidence. Now the national search that Keller has launched for a chief takes on more meaning.

The questions for Keller is whether Geier's credibility has been irreparably damaged and whether appointing him would simply mean a continuation of the damaged culture that brought APD under the thumb of the Justice Department.

 THE BOTTOM LINES 

Two weeks to go in Primary ‘18 in what is commonly known as the “final stretch.” You might say it’s not what it used to be but it’s still pretty darn exciting. We will increase our blogging here and on Facebook to keep you up-to-date with late breaking news. And on Election Night, June 5, we will bring all the election results to you on public radio KANW 89.1 FM and kanw.com.

As usual, I have a bunch of great people helping me and making me look smarter than I really am. To alleviate my guilt over that, I will examine obscure campaign-finance reports into the wee morning hours accompanied by copious amounts of Starbucks and a Sinatra soundtrack. Hey, it’s the life we chose. Thanks for being with us for another final stretch.

Two exciting primary congressional battles are more fully formed today after the release of quarterly fund-raising reports. Here's what you need to know. . .

Yvette Herrell, the feisty state representative from Alamogordo who is locked in a do-or- die battle with former Hobbs Mayor Monty Newman for the GOP southern congressional nomination, has been battered and bruised. But she's not down and out.

As expected, Newman outraised Herrell in the first quarter and reports a hefty $369,000 in cash on hand as of March 31 for the final weeks of the June 5 primary. But Herrell,who was prohibited from raising money during the 30 day legislative session, still reports $256,000 in cash. That's enough for a considerable media buy that will keep Newman on his toes.

Remember Herrell was the overwhelming choice of the delegates at the preprimary convention where she scored a landslide win over Newman. But she took a hit when an ethics charge against her was recently broadcast across the district.

Newman is being consulted by the controversial Jay McCleskey who handles Gov. Martinez. The campaign has become somewhat of a proxy war between the two wings of the GOP--those who support Martinez and those who don't.

The Herrell ethics charge and Newman's money edge have him in the pole position for now. Herrell is going to have to give Monty and Jay a taste of their own medicine to regain steam.

Newman or Herrell will face the winner of the Dem primary in the R leaning district but you can turn out the lights on that one:

On the Democratic side, Las Cruces water attorney Xochitl Torres Small reported getting $313,332 in contributions and has $243,409 in available campaign cash. Her lone Democratic rival, Mad Hildebrandt of Socorro, had not yet filed a report as of late Monday.

Hildebrand has put forth a decent effort but the national Dems are calling the shots and they think it is Torres Small who stands the best chance to pull off the upset in November.

ALBUQUERQUE ACTION

In the increasingly interesting race for the Dem nomination for the ABQ congressional seat being vacated by Rep. Michelle Lujan Grisham we still have no public or insider polling. But that's okay. The public is still largely unacquainted with the contenders and the TV and mail campaigns are going to be decisive.

The money reports, combined with the outcome of the Dem preprimary convention, indicate the likely winner is either former NM Dem Chair Deb Haaland or law professor Antoinette Sedillo Lopez. Former US attorney Damon Martinez is a dark horse and the other three--Lara, Davis and Moya are in the political ICU.

Sedillo Lopez is reporting $457,000 in cash at the end of March but the Haaland campaign says they do not see payments for polling or a mail campaign that Sedillo Lopez conducted during the quarter. Including that could take her cash count down toward the $400k level. Haaland, whose numbers we previously reported, raised $297,000, double that of her nearest competitor. She reports $347,000 in cash in the bank. Martinez is in it with $277,000 in cash but the big defeat he suffered at the Dem preprimary looms.

The Haaland campaign now says a super PAC composed of tribal money will help her, presumably with TV. She would be the first Native American woman to be elected to the US House. And so far that's really the only narrative that has stuck in this race. Sedillo Lopez is going to have to change the conservation if she is to take the prize.

The trailing three in the race are Pat Davis who reported $61,000 in cash; Paul Moya who reported $162,000 in cash, most of which he loaned himself, and Damian Lara who came with $139,000.

Thanks to Martinez campaign manager Abigail Collazo for providing the links to the Federal reports. New Mexican coverage here. ABQ Journal here.

LABS LONG TERM

The blog recently covered the differing views of leading Guv candidates Steve Pearce and Lujan Grisham on the security of Sandia and Los Alamos Labs in NM going forward, and that got us mulling over their recent budgets and their impact on Mr. and Mrs. New Mexico.

A NM Senate staffer sends this from Exchange Monitor which specializes in coverage of the nuclear weapons complex.

It shows that the National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) budget for Sandia and Los Alamos has grown considerably over the past decade, not that there weren't a couple of years when the budget actually went down and the economy here took a hit. But the drive to modernize the nuclear stockpile that started under Obama and that is gaining traction under Trump has sparked bigger budget increases.

The proposed FY 2019 NNSA budget request for Los Alamos is $1.906 billion, up from 1.394 billion in FY10. For Sandia the NNSA requests $1.924 billion for FY19. In FY09 the budget was $1.008 billion.

The Exchange Monitor further reports: "In its 2019 budget request, the agency included a five-year budget projection that shows annual funding climbing more than 14 percent to around $17 billion by 2023."

Including all missions and not just NNSA weapons funding, such as work for Homeland Security and other agencies, the total Sandia budget is now over $3 billion. The Los Alamos total budget is $2.55 billion.

That's over $5.50 billion in spending on the two labs. There are those who abhor the fact that New Mexico is so dependent on nuclear weapons for its economic well-being. They are joined by others who dislike government spending in general and want to diversify our economy with more private sector activity.

Meantime that money is going to be spent somewhere, if not here. That's why the proposal to take nuclear pit production from Los Alamos and send it to Savannah River is headline news.

Diversifying away from nuclear weapons based on moral objections can be understood. But claiming you can significantly diversify the ABQ and north central NM economy away from $5.50 billion in federal funding borders on lunacy.

Right now New Mexico is out of position with the Trump administration which--to use an ironic phrase in talking of nukes--makes the peacemaking ability of the state's mostly Dem DC delegation and our next Governor of paramount importance.

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State Rep. Herrell

The GOP nomination for the southern congressional seat being vacated by Rep. Steve Pearce appears to be slipping into the corner of State Rep. Yvette Herrell.

She comes with a bold and unapologetic debut TV ad backing President Trump and in which she is proudly labeled a "conservative" five times in 30 seconds.

The phrase "game-changer" is overworked but this seems like one.

Herrell of Alamogordo aced Monty Newman, her chief rival, at the March GOP preprimary convention when she landslided him 58 to 26 percent. But Newman, a successful realtor and former Hobbs Mayor, was still seen as a potential threat because of his large campaign war chest and name ID. Now not as much.

Newman's first TV spot was mild compared to Herrell's, focusing heavily on his son's service in Iraq but offered no real emotional connection for the audience. Newman offered little red meat to the Trump base that commands southern Republicans. Herrell has now stepped in to throw that red meat and by doing so she may have shut this race down.

She flings it all out there--that she is a "pro-life Christian" "a Trump conservative" and "despises" big government. All of it is music to the ears of the base GOP vote.

Herrell critics are raising questions about her claim in the ad that "she fought to cut taxes" and her legislative record on the matter is a matter of debate.

Newman insisted on hiring Jay McCleskey, the media wizard for Governor Martinez who earned himself the title "Shadow Governor" for his outsized influence in her administration. But McCleskey has made so many enemies within the GOP that Newman was abandoned by many who would normally support him. Now he faces a decision on whether to unleash McCleskey to let him wage one of his well-known slash and burn campaigns against Herrell in an effort to turn the tide. The task is made more difficult by this Herrell spot. An attack on her at this point could be seen as an attack on the President who she is giving her full backing while Newman hesitates on that score.

As for the November election, it appears it will be Herrell vs Las Cruces water attorney  and rising Democratic star Xochitl Torres Small, but Herrell's able handling of her TV debut is giving pause to some Dem analysts. They still see Torres Small as a strong candidate, but Herrell's unabashed embrace of conservatives in a district with plenty of them and a large bible belt to boot, remind them of how difficult it will be for the Dems to pull off the upset.

FOLLOWING THE MONEY 

The candidates came with their latest finance reports for Primary '18 Monday. It covered the period April 3 thru May 7. All reports are here and here's the analysis:

GUV---Michelle Lujan Grisham raised more money during the period but also bought TV and her cash balance ended at $1.6 million down from $1.8 million in her last report. For now that's way more than enough.

Joe Cervantes loaned himself another $500,000 for a total of $2 million for the campaign. He has $1.6 million in cash but probably not enough time to spend it all. Jeff Apodaca has $263,000 in cash. Lujan Grisham remains the front-runner for the Dem nod. Something--something big--is going to have to happen to change that.

On the R side, wily Steve Pearce got on TV but also raised more money. He now tops the Guv field with $1.9 million in cash on hand.

More analysis from political veteran and former city councilor, state legislator and ABQ attorney Greg Payne:

Did something happen here? Wake me if it does.

LT. GOVERNOR--Dem State Senator Howie Morales reports $63,000 in cash on hand. He established himself as the frontrunner for the Dem nod and remains so. The other contenders lag. Republican Michelle Garcia Holmes is unopposed for the GOP Light Guv slot.

Payne-- It's Howie's to lose.

AG---The Balderas money train slowed some with him now reporting $903,000 in cash compared to $891,000 last time. He is unopposed for the Dem attorney general nod and a heavy favorite for re-election over  Republican Michael Hendricks. If he does win, he will sit around and think about what to run for next with all that cash. Or not.

Payne: Maybe Sen. Udall doesn't run for re-election in 2020, but I wouldn't bet $903,000 on it. 

LAND COMMISSIONER--The news on this one is that appears Rep. Stephanie Garcia Richard has been effectively knocked out of the Dem nomination chase. She had one more shot to raise the dough but came with just $31,000 in cash on hand. She won't have a statewide presence, leaving the race to environmentalist Garret VeneKlasen and State Senator George Munoz. VeneKlasen reports $73,000 on hand but has had a healthy media presence before spending that money and a third party group is nuking Munoz. The Senator reports $210,000 in cash, most of which he lent himself. This one is only going to get more interesting.

Pat Lyons is the lone R seeking the nomination.

Payne: The enviros and Sen. Heinrich are pushing hard for VeneKlasen. That may be enough for him.

STATE AUDITOR--Bill McCamley lent himself $45,000 and started his campaign for the Dem state auditor nomination earlier than ABQ's Brian Colón. McCamley, a Las Cruces are state rep has already made a decent TV buy and Colón did not bury him in a cash pile.

McCamley reported only $17,000 in cash on hand but he has purchased TV time and production of $120,000. Colón reports $123,000 in cash but had not yet reported his TV buy. A friend says he bought a buy similar to McCamley so his cash is probably in the 20's now.

If McCamley's ad against the Trump wall brings out the progressives in a big way, he has a shot. If the race breaks with an ethnic advantage for Colón, he will win.

Payne: Joe, you said the McCamley TV ad was a bit off the wall, but it connects with progressives and Hispanics. He could crash Brian's party in BernCo and the north. Keep an eye on this one. 

Point taken, Greg, And we just looked at some insider polling that shows more likely Dem primary voters identify as progressives or liberals this cycle than in the past.

On another note, we're pleased to report Greg will join us on Primary Election Night June 5 on KANW 89.1 FM radio and kanw.com to analyze the results as they roll in.

CARL AND ANDREA-- Santa Fe County State Rep. Carl Trujillo is going to outspend Andrea Trujillo in the final stretch but not by very much. Will that make the difference in this Dem primary race that has captured statewide attention, with Trujillo being accused of sex harassment and Romero charged with unethically handling public funds? Romero has $28,000 in cash. Trujillo has $35,000 and spent the same amount in the reporting period. As they say on the playground, they are about to nuke the snot out of each other. Voters, hide if you can.

HAPPY BIRTHDAY

Our onetime boss, former ABQ GOP Congressman and Secretary of the Interior Manuel Lujan Jr., turned 90 this week. Here's a pic of him on his special day, sporting his usual smile and exuding optimism. Those were qualities that helped him keep the ABQ congressional seat in the Republican column for 20 years. In 1989 he began a four year run as Secretary of Interior under the first President Bush.

After leaving government Lujan concentrated on business interests and lobbying. He and his wife Jeanne live in ABQ and stay busy today with their large family. We assume he is closely following the race for Governor in which his cousin, Democrat Michelle Lujan Grisham, is playing a prominent role. But that doesn't mean he'll vote Democratic. You'll have to ask him. Happy Birthday, Congressman.

This is the home of New Mexico politics.

E-mail your news and comments. (jmonahan@ix.netcom.com)

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(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2018