Pollster Sanderoff

Yvette Herrell desperately needs good news in the public polling. Her last shot at getting some could be this Sunday (Oct. 20) when the ABQ Journal comes with their second and final poll of Election '24

The paper took a pass on the southern congressional seat featuring Herrell and Dem Rep. Gabe Vasquez in their September survey but longtime pollster Brian Sanderoff says that race, in which Herrell has lagged Vasquez by nine points in two separate polls conducted in late August and late September, has been included this time.

Sanderoff says the paper Sunday will also have a second round of polling on the presidential race here as well as the US Senate race. Both are seen as closed out by top operatives here and elsewhere with Trump on course to lose the state for the third time and Nella Domenici falling short of Dem Senator Heinrich as he seeks a third, six year term. 

Overall, polling is more difficult than ever with many voters reluctant to pick up their phones. 

Sanderoff, whose firm Research and Polling has surveyed every major statewide NM election since the late 1980's, details the most significant development for his firm and others during the Trump era: 

The biggest demographic shift in NM and nationally during the Trump era is educational attainment level. Trump is doing better than in the past among those without a college degree (especially those with a high school or less educational attainment) and Democrats are doing even better than in the past among those with a college degree, especially those with a graduate degree. Thus it is important not to undercount those with less education. 

By calling the non-respondents multiple times over multiple days you can mitigate but not eliminate nonresponse bias. In the 2020 Presidential election we were within one point of the margin of victory. In 2016 we were 3 points off the margin of victory.

The southern district has been notoriously tricky to poll because of its rural nature. But now half the votes in district come from Dona Ana and Bernalillo counties. 

The two public polls in the race had Vasquez winning by by 9. Any improvement by Herrell on that could boost the Republican effort to reset the race in the final days.

HERRELL'S PAST

Herrell

Staying with the 2nd Congressional District, readers point out that we've covered the Republican scolding of Vasquez for his verbal mishaps, committed while a student at NMSU some 20 years ago. They say if his past errors are going to be covered then an incident in the 2018 campaign in which Herrell was the GOP nominee also deserves coverage. 

That controversy was covered here and elsewhere back then, but alright. In the spirit of fairness here it is again from an '18 news report:

A Republican New Mexico state lawmaker and congressional candidate has amended a financial disclosure filing to show that her company received money from contracts with state agencies, in a move ensuring compliance with state regulations.

State Rep. Yvette Herrell of Alamogordo previously disclosed that she is a partner in Herrell Properties. She submitted an amended filing to show the company earned more than $5,000 from goods or services provided to state agencies.

Other state records have indicated that Herrell Properties took in $440,000 since 2013 by renting property to the New Mexico Taxation and Revenue Department and New Mexico Environment Department.

The Secretary of State’s Office spokesman  said the amended filing brought Herrell into compliance with the requirement to “disclose the name of any state agency to which the legislator sold goods or services in excess of $5,000.”

Herrell survived that flare up and even now as she gasps for oxygen in a gerrymandered district, she can't be counted out.

Her vote to not certify Biden as president in 2021 and her rigid pro-life position, combined with the gerrymander of the district, puts her in grave danger. But her most valuable attributes are a no-nonsense, tough-as-nails personality, a never-back-down mentality and a consistency that has appealed to voters for years and made them cross over from their own party to elect her. 

NO MAS

It appears multi-millionaire and former hedge fund executive Nella Domenici is done donating to her senate campaign. 

The Heinrich camp, keeping an eye out for a last minute minute money rush, notes that Domenici raised $1.15 million in the final quarter before Election Day but she did not make any personal loans to her campaign. 

She had previously given a total of $1.5 million of personal money. 

Heinrich reports raising $2.3 million in the quarter, out raising her 2 to 1. 

In May we broke the news that Domenici's net worth, according to documents filed with the Senate, was  upwards of $94 million or $21 million on the low end. Dems howled at the time that they wanted "an election not an auction."

They pretty much got what they wanted since $1.5 million is a relatively modest amount for a major campaign. And Nella's hesitancy to throw more of her fortune at a race that may be out of reach earns her points for her assertion that she is a true fiscal conservative. (But there's still three weeks to go so stay tuned.)

In her latest TV ad Domenici continues calling Heinrich a "radical" but this time there's a twist. She says his economic policies are radical. That may be a better angle to get voter attention than her past efforts. The economy tops the list of concerns this year and relating Heinrich's alleged "radicalism" to voter's pocketbooks could win her a listen. 

DEBATE REACTION

Readers commented on the first Heinrich-Domenici TV debate conducted Monday afternoon. Jay Howard Deme wrote:

A real ho-hum affair between incumbent Martin Heinrich and challenger Nella Domenici. Sleepers for sure. Where are the real firebrand candidates for this top office to represent New Mexicans in Washington, D.C. at the U-S Senate! The two major party's, Democrat and Republican , better wake up. 

Khal Spencer wrote on social media:

Reader Kelley says:

Joe, concerning Nella Domenici's outrage at being perceived as following orders of a Republican Senate Majority Leader. Of course she will--whatever Donald Trump and the party desire. They’re in lockstep, no independence. 

 It’s not sexist, as she claims, it’s true. Domenici may have been successful in business, but she’s not ready for high office. I like how Heinrich has ascended and earned his way to become a US Senator by way of ABQ city councilor. US Rep., then Senator--and it shows. 

Lastly, Nella saying everyone in the ABQ "war zone" is stoned is an insult to an entire block of our city. My aunt lives between Lomas and Central off Wyoming. I can assure Nella, she’s not stoned. The community needs help and solutions, not snobby, judgement. Have a good day, Joe. 

That's it for now. Reporting from Albuquerque, I'm Joe Monahan and. . .

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Nathan Brooks

Voters are being asked to go back in time to asses the qualifications of two candidates--a ABQ GOP House candidate who carries several criminal convictions including one over an ugly domestic violence incident and a US Congressman whose youthful days are fulled with numerous verbal indiscretions.

The House candidate entangled in his past is Nathan Brooks, the Republican nominee for the District 68 state House seat on ABQ's westside held by Dem Rep. Charlotte Little, a member of San Felipe Pueblo, who won the seat by a tiny 35 vote margin in 2022. 

But Republicans are concerned that she could pull away if voters hold Brooks accountable for his past from 15 to 17 years ago. 

Little's campaign sent this hard-hitting digital ad that is cringe-worthy in the way it describes Brooks' disturbing domestic violence arrest and conviction:

Before he was convicted of a DWI and charged with battering a police officer and evading arrest Nathan Brooks did something unforgivable. 

Police found a woman lying in front of a liquor store where Nathan Brooks had beat her. 

Witnesses said Brooks had thrown her to the ground then kicked and punched her several times walked away and attacked her again.

Brooks told police he was going to kill her when he got out.

Nathan Brooks is not fit to serve us.

Paid for and authorized by the Speaker Fund.

Pretty devastating stuff, none of which Brooks, 49, denies. He said this about his past on the Journal questionnaire:

Almost 20 years ago, I was arrested and convicted of misdemeanors. It was a difficult time in my life as I battled alcoholism. I have since entered recovery, learned from those experiences, turned my life around, focusing on becoming the best version of myself and serving my community. . .As Executive Director for the Commercial Association of REALTORS® NM and President of the New Mexico Real Estate Education Foundation in 2024, I bring extensive business experience. 

THE SUMMARY   

Rep. Little

Here is a summary the Democrats are circulating that shows what Brooks is facing:

On June 19, 2005, Nathan Taylor Brooks was arrested in Clark County, Nevada and booked into the Clark County Detention Center. . . Mr. Brooks was arrested and charged with two counts of Domestic Violence. Docket information indicates he pled Guilty to one count and on the other pled nolo contendere and found guilty on the other count. 

09-24-2006 - Albuquerque Metropolitan Court- T-4-DW-2006004758 - State of New Mexico vs. Nathan T. Brooks - DWI First Offense and Not Driving Within Traffic Lane - Mr. Brooks is arrested and booked. . . He pleads not guilty to DWI and the case is dismissed by the prosecutor - unable to proceed (this usually means the arresting officer, who actually prosecutes the case failed to show) and pled guilty and was found guilty of Not Driving Within Traffic Lane.

Mr. Brooks is arrested on 02-15-2007 and charged with Battery Upon a Peace Officer, Resisting/Evading/Obstructing an Officer, Reckless Driving 1st Offense, Aggravated DWI (1st Offense), No Evidence of Registration, and two counts of Failure to Obey Traffic Control Devices. Mr. Brooks pleaded Guilty/No Contest to Resisting/Evading/Obstructing an Officer and Aggravated DWI 1st Offense.

Voters can either decide Brooks has redeemed himself by straightening out his life or decide that the grizzly domestic violence incident along with the DWI's and associated misbehavior is too much for them to tolerate. It's not a pleasant task.

VERBAL VASQUEZ

Meanwhile, Dem US Rep. Gabe Vasquez is facing what may be the final volley from Republican Yvette Herrell over his verbal indiscretions from his youth.

Records surfaced that show Vasquez nearly 20 years ago threatened to "kill" and "bury" a fellow student at NMSU. From the 2005 police report:

Mr. Vasquez admitted that he made the call to Carlos Solis that was construed to be a threatening-type call. He apologized and claimed at the time, he was very upset due to the condition of his friend [who was hospitalized]. Mr. Vasquez assured me that he wished no ill-will on Mr. Solis and will not call or harass Mr. Solis in any way.

Herrell said:

This is extremely dangerous and unhinged behavior from Gabe Vasquez, and he owes New Mexico’s Second District an immediate explanation and apology. 

And Vasquez: 

Once again, Yvette Herrell is making shameless, dishonest and desperate attacks against me. It's outrageous she's now exploiting the death of a close college friend to attack me. She just wants to distract voters because she was caught on tape admitting she wants to ban all abortion even in cases of rape, incest, or to save a woman's life.

Vasquez's past verbal mishaps were documented earlier in the campaign but don't seem to have slowed him. He led Herrell by nine points in both a late August Emerson College survey and a late September SurveyUSA.

Vasquez won election over Herrell in 2022, so much of his past has been vetted by voters who gave him a pass. 

Reports of the latest verbal indiscretions are new but Vasquez has not repeated such behavior during his term as a congressman and that may be making the difference.

BACK AGAIN

Speaker Johnson

Herrell is bringing back US House Speaker Mike Johnson for a second visit to the the 2nd Congressional District in support of her campaign. It shows the GOP is not giving up on the swing seat but also reveals the challenge they face. 

Johnson, who previously appeared in Las Cruces for Herrell, will now be in Carlsbad October 23 to get out the vote. 

That's in SE oil country which is generally friendly for her but not as much as Hobbs and Roswell which are now split up between other districts.

Herrell needs solid conservative southeast turnout but she needs it even more in ABQ's South Valley and Westside which are now in the district. That's where she could really use some big league names--if the areas are still in play for her. 

(Those interested in attending the Oct. 23 Carlsbad event can check here.)

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Republican Nella Domenici finally filled in one of the biggest blanks in this year's race for the US Senate. She announced in the final moments of an hour-long televised debate with Sen. Martin Heinrich that she will be casting her vote for president for Donald Trump. (Full debate here.)

That will be greeted with shrugged shoulders elsewhere, but it took Nella the better part of the year to arrive at her come-to-Donald moment and it took Heinrich's prodding to get her there. When asked by him for her presidential choice she surprised viewers with this:

My decision on the presidential election is a focus on policy. I could never vote for Kamala Harris. I also agree with many of the policies of Donald Trump. I will be voting for our nominee.

Domenici could have made the announcement without any prodding earlier in the debate but by waiting for Heinrich to ask, she was able to give a muted endorsement of Trump. 

Still, Heinrich's camp was delighted to point it out to a state that is poised to deliver a solid win to Kamala Harris, declaring: 

After dodging questions her entire campaign, New Mexico GOP Senate candidate Nella Domenici finally admitted she supports former President and convicted felon Donald Trump. 

The endorsement could impact the race but not the outcome. Domenici's polling has been below 40 percent in the public surveys, well below base Republican performance. The Trump endorsement should help her with GOP enthusiasm even as it further alienates Democrats.  

The endorsement also puts Domenici on the right side if she loses to Heinrich and then runs for the GOP nomination for Governor in 2026, a race that Democrat Heinrich is thought to be entertaining.

Prior to her Trump comment, the other moment of the debate that stood out for Domenici was when she raised her voice a bit at Heinrich, calling him "sexist and insulting" for saying she would follow the orders of a Republican Senate Majority Leader and support a national abortion ban: 

That is the most sexist comment you could ever hear from a Untied States Senator. I'm a very successful professional, educated woman and I will not be told by any Senator. . . what to vote on or how to vote on it. And for Martin Heinrich to think I am a weak woman who will take orders from a man and not stick to my own values, that's a sexist, insulting, demeaning remark. 

Domenici repeated her stance that she would not be voting for a national abortion ban but again refused to answer how she would vote on a Senate bill that would make it a right for a woman to have an abortion. Heinrich pointed out that she had called such a bill "a sham" and said her answer was a "nonanswer."

Heinrich kept his head down and took notes as Nella delivered her blast. Showing no emotion has almost become a caricature of Heinrich but his years in the Senate have improved his debating ability considerably. 

Heinrich also did not flinch when the candidates were asked about late-term abortions in the state, insuring that pro-choice voters have no second thoughts:

I support allowing the women in this country to make their  health care decisions. . . I don't think there is any moment when a politician is going to make a better decision than the woman. 

Slam. Dunk. 

And that made us wonder yet again what would this campaign look like if at the beginning Nella Domenici became that rarest speeches of all--a pro-choice Republican woman. 

We'll never know. 

DEBATING DRUGS

Nella did some clean-up work when Heinrich repeated his TV ad message that when she was CFO of the Bridgewater hedge fund it invested millions in Chinese companies responsible for fentanyl coming into the US:

When I was at Bridgewater, I was CFO. I had absolutely nothing to do with any stock investments anywhere in the world. (Heinrich) is trying to distract from his own failed record. 

For his part, Heinrich did not take after any of Nella's ads against him because, frankly, none have penetrated his armor. 

Both candidates offered solutions to the fentanyl crisis with Domenici supporting a border wall and Heinrich saying he has funded more equipment to sniff out smugglers, saying that 80 percent of the fentanyl coming in to the US is carried by Americans.

LIGHT SIDE 

Nella showed an empathetic side when Heinrich lost his train of thought and struggled to recall the word voucher when the discussion tuned to school vouchers. She turned to him and helpfully said "voucher." 

During the debate Nella had to ask that several of the questions be repeated because she was having difficulty hearing them, so her offer of assistance to Heinrich struck a cord when she could have just let him hang there. 

Summing up the debate: It took Martin Heinrich less than 30 seconds into the broadcast to mention "the right to choose." Any questions?

DOWNTOWN DOZING

The ABQ City Council just can't get it together when it comes to stopping people from sleeping on downtown streets. A piece of messy legislation that came in four parts led to an 8-1 vote against halting the downtown public dozing and other measures to make the area more hospitable. 

That led to this from reader Larry Anderson:

The vote against doing something about crime and homelessness went down 8-1. The council is only interested in their own tribe/club and not their broader constituency. One refuses doing anything about abandoned properties, another one or two are part of the Homeless Industrial Complex. Still another believes the government should be of the Police, by the Police, for the Police and more Police. There are others. They are powerful little tribes/clubs and most Citizens aren't members.

It was downtown Councilor Joaquin Baca who sponsored the losing legislation which makes you wonder how a bright fella like him could not have known it wasn't going anywhere

Did misplaced progressive outrage over banning the downtown sleep overs make Baca reticent to sponsor legislation that would have a chance of passing? 

Will he try again with more coherent legislation that bans the sleepers? 

Or will the city put out mattresses in front of the Man's Hat Shop to make the nappers more comfortable? 

SHE SAYS SHE'S HOT

(Austria, Journal)

She turns 65 October 24 but our peripatetic Governor isn't slowing down. She's running down the campaign trail, proclaiming herself a"hottie for Harris," while sporting a hot pink suit that is sure to turn opposition Republicans red with rage.

"Dammit, Joe, she's flashing us!"

Safely re-elected and hopeful for a spot in a Harris administration should the VP win, MLG could have a whale of a political hangover the day after the election if Harris flops. For now, its adrenaline, caffeine, hot pink and maybe even some pole dancing before this crazy campaign is put to bed.

THE BOTTOM LINES

In a first draft Monday we identified former state Rep. Dona Irwin as a Republican. She was a conservative Democrat who died recently at 93.

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Not again? Yes, again. The simplest of queries from the ABQ Journal questionnaire could once again deliver game-changing results in a state legislative race, and this time it would very likely mean that Bernalillo County--the state's largest--would have zero GOP members in the state House of Representatives. 

The mini-quake was set off when it was reported that GOP House District 31 hopeful Nicole Chavez, seeking to replace retiring GOP State Rep. Bill Rehm, gave herself credit for a college degree she did not have on her 2022 general election Journal questionnaire. She listed a nonexistent "B.S., business administration."

And she compounded her problems with this:

Chavez was more specific on the ivoterguide.com website. She said she received a bachelor’s degree in 2019 from Capella University, an online school based in Minneapolis. More contradictions are found on Chavez’s LinkedIn social media page. Chavez lists bachelor’s degrees from both Capella University and Walden University, another online school headquartered in Minneapolis. The degree from Walden, she wrote, was conferred only last month. All of her claims were false. 

Scrambling to overcome a Democratic challenge from Vicky Estrada-Bustillo, Chavez came with this that about her claim of having a degree:

I listed it because I was on target to graduate end of summer but because of this campaign and having a full time career, I had to push out my last classes to another semester,” she wrote in a text message. “I have been working on this degree slowly for years while working a full time job, raising my children and advocating for victims across the state because this is a very important personal goal for me to complete.

Estrada-Bustillo, 63, and retired from the US Forest Service, came with this zinger in response to Chavez's claims:

When you received a college degree is not something you forget. I can tell you exactly when I got my master’s degree in forestry,” Estrada-Bustillo said. (It was in 1993, from Stephen F. Austin State University).

Chavez, who lists her employment as Director of Sales, Outreach, and Retention for Presbyterian Health Plan, is also dealing with a residency question:

When she ran and lost for the District 28 House seat in ABQ in 2022 against Dem Pamelya Herndon, she attested on candidate forms that she lived in that district. But in the 2024 primary election Journal questionnaire she says she has lived in District 31 for eight years.

IVEY-SOTO ANALYSIS

Chavez's race was already tight before the questionnaire mishap, according to insider polling. Now the outcome may swing on how undecided voters assess Chavez's character including her integrity.

ABQ Dem state Senator and attorney Daniel Ivey-Soto, both a winner and a loser in elections and who we've enlisted to help cover the final campaign stretch, comes with this analysis:

Joe, registration in House District 31 is 39 percent Republican, 36 percent Democratic and 24 percent independent. I think the party vote is probably dug in in but a message to undecided independents over the questionnaire flap could impact this race. 

A Republican loss could mean the Democrats in Bernallio County sweep every state House race for the first time in memory. Also, the Republicans have only one state Senate seat based here. A Chavez loss ould further hurt the party's rebuilding effort as well as depriving ABQ a GOP voice in the House.

Ivey-Soto points out that there are no other Bernalillo County races where the GOP has a good shot of picking up a seat and making up for a Chavez defeat should it occur. 

CURSE OF THE QUESTIONNAIRE

Chavez, 48, broke onto the political scene when she became an anti-crime activist in the wake of the murder of her 17 year old son. She joins a long line of candidates who have not been truthful in their answers to the newspaper's questionnaire. 

Just last year ABQ City Councilor narrowly escaped defeat when she misstated her educational credits on the Journal questionnaire. Republican Bassan’s mishap was not as serious as Chavez's. She said she had a bachelor's degree in criminal justice when she had only an associate degree. Still, she only eked out her re-election bid by 153 votes or 1.4 percent. 

For some reason not all of the new generation of candidates has learned any lessons from the last one. That lesson being that telling the truth will set you free and the opposite could put you in political prison.

DEBATE DAY

New Mexico's version of the Not Ready for Primetime Players is set to play out this afternoon. 

After first scheduling the US Senate debate between Republican Nella Domenci and Sen. Martin Heinrich for the prime time hour of 7 p.m., KOAT had to reschedule because the ABC Network has decided to air more Monday Night Football games this season--starting with tonight's contest between the Jets and Bills at 6:15 p.m.

That last minute change had the station sending the debate back to today's 4:30 p.m. start time. Also, the Heinrich campaign confirms the debate will be pre-taped this afternoon--not aired live--cutting some of the edge from the event. 

Nevertheless, the debate will go on for one hour and offer underdog Domenici a chance to try to turn around a race she trails in by double digits. But Heinrich will counter her attacks on him over inflation, crime and the border with his own hits over her refusal to say whether she will vote for Trump, her abortion stance and Project 2025.

Nella's supporters will have statewide watch parties, including in ABQ at State GOP headquarters. 

Heinrich's boosters will gather to watch at ABQ's O'Niell's Pub on Central Ave. 

This won't be the last debate chance for Domenici. The candidates have one more scheduled on Sunday October 27 at ABQ's Congregation Albert. It will be televised live on KOB-TV but it occurs at 11 in the morning. It seems our Not Ready for Prime Time Players are destined to stay that way. 

As for the importance of tonight's debate to the outcome of the election, we get this: 

Debates below the presidential level have only rarely mattered, and they matter even less today,” said Joshua Karp, a Democratic operative. “In the past, debates have offered an opportunity to break through the noise and maybe have an outstanding moment on an important issue, but two can play at that game and the other side gets to talk too in every debate.” “The upside of the potential to break through is offset by the potential for the other guy to break through,” Karp said.

 DONA IRWIN

Former conservative Dem State Rep. Dona Irwin of Deming has died. She served from District 32 from 1999-2017. Gov. Lujan Grisham said:

I had the privilege of working alongside Dona Irwin for many years. (She was) a stalwart advocate for children, families, and rural communities. She was especially skilled at connecting our agricultural heritage with educational opportunities, especially through her work with the Cooperative Extension Service. . . Long before universal meals and healthy cooking became national priorities, Dona was working to bring healthy meals and community gardens to senior centers across rural New Mexico. Her visionary leadership improved the lives of so many in our state.

Dona Irwin was 92.

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The writing may not be on the wall yet but the lead sentences of New Mexico Campaign '24 are being etched.

With widespread early in-person voting set to begin October 19 and with precious little time after that to change the campaign narrative for the November 5 election, here is where we are at.

PRESIDENT

As in '16 and '20 the presidential race here made political hearts flutter early but that has long since faded. Harris is expected to beat Trump here by six to ten points. The state lost its swing status in presidential contests back in 2008 but that is still a tough pill for many to swallow.

The 538 site curent track puts the race here at 54.4 percent for Harris and 45.7 percent for Trump, a lead of 8.7 percent. In 2020 Biden beat Trump here by 10.79 percent.

US SENATE

This race has also fallen into the solid Dem camp after a brief kerfuffle over its standing. Dem. Sen. Martin Heinrich is expected to win a third, six year term. If he does and the Dems manage to keep control of the Senate--an uphill struggle--he is now "widely expected" to become chairman of the Senate Energy Committee. The latest from Axios Pro:

Heinrich is the overwhelming favorite for chair, unless he's tapped for a role in the Harris administration.

It would seem Heinrich's chances of seeking the '26 Dem gubernatorial nomination go up if he doesn't get the chairmanship. The job possibility with a victorious Harris is new speculation. 

On the Guv front, Heinrich continues to dance:

The way I make these decisions--and it’s heavily influenced by family, obviously--is I try to figure out where I can make the biggest difference for the state of New Mexico. Right now, I believe that’s in the United States Senate.”

Secretary of Interior Deb Haaland has also signaled she is interested in a Dem Guv run. 

We put up two Domenici ads this week attacking Heinrich on crime. Here is a new Heinrich ad on the fentanyl crisis.

No US Senator has been defeated for re-election in New Mexico since 1982 when Dem Jeff Bingaman ousted first-termer Republican Jack Schmitt. 

Domenici would be the state's first female US Senator.

US HOUSE

Dems are favored to keep the state's three US House seats. ABQ Dem Rep. Stansbury and northern Rep. Teresa Leger Fernandez are in heavy Dem districts. The southern district now leans toward Dem Rep. Gabe Vasquez. His challenge from Republican Yvette Herrell is stiff but she is losing by nine points in two different polls. 

That polling can't be ignored, says longtime political analyst and attorney Greg Payne:

That race is essentially over--unless there is a late shocker--but it is interesting how the district has gone from a swing district to one that will now likely be permanently Democratic. 

538 says: 

Vasquez wins the seat 84 times out of 100 in our simulations of the 2024 House election. Herrell wins the seat 16 times out of 100.

The site's track currently has the finish at 53.7 for Vasquez and 46.3 percent for Herrell, a difference of 7.4 percent. 

In 2022 Vasquez beat Herrell by just 1,350 votes or 50.3% to 49.6%, a difference of 0.7 percent.

STATE SENATE AND HOUSE 

Maybe a seat or two either way seems to be the consensus for the senate. All 42 seats are up for election. Dems control the chamber 27 to 15. The chances of no party making any gains is also on the table. 

Republican Nicole Tobiassen is favored to beat Dem Athena Christodoulou in ABQ NE Heights District 21 to replace retiring GOP Sen. Mark Moores. This is now the only Republican state senate seat based in Bernalillo county.

In the House, Dem party leadership is hoping for at least a two seat pickup that would take their majority  from 45 to 47 in the 72 member chamber. The GOP is also hoping for two pickups. There is enough competitive districts for either side to prevail.

The only GOP House seat left in BernCo is District 31 where Republican Nicole Chavez appears to hold a lead over Dem Vicky Estrada-Bustillo in a race that could go down to the wire.

A trio of losses by conservative Democrats Dems in the June primary will be the main ideological driver in the new Legislature, making the House more liberal even if the minority Republicans were to pick up a seat or two.

That's where we stand now. We'll update the forecast along the way 

DON'T GIVE UP 

Some may recall that for a number of years we pounded the table for a dental school in ABQ but frankly gave up. Now from the city comes this welcome word:

The City of Albuquerque joined Touro University to break ground on New Mexico’s first undergraduate dental clinical training facility. Located on the campus of Lovelace Biomedical Research Institute (LBRI) in Albuquerque, this new facility will serve as a clinical branch of Touro College of Dental Medicine (TCDM), providing essential training for 200 dental students, with plans to open in May 2025. 

Mayor Keller: “Not only will it help fill a critical shortage of dental professionals in our community, but our young people will have the opportunity to pursue careers in dentistry right here. This first-of-its-kind facility will help build. . .access to affordable dental care for those who need it most.  

Touro University is committed to delivering quality education as well as integrity, inclusivity, and respect for all members of our new Touro community in New Mexico,” said Touro University President Alan Kadish, M.D.

Touro President Kadish points out that New Mexico faces a severe dentist shortage, with only 48.4 dentists per 100,000 people, below the national average of 60.84. He anticipates that there will be a significant number of graduates who remain in New Mexico to pursue their dental careers.

We hope he's right about the graduates staying here since rural areas of the state can often be a dental desert.  

In any event, we'll celebrate this news after many years of waiting, but not with anything that will give us a cavity. 

THE BOTTOM LINES

We'll talk politics and the election on KKOB radio at 5 p.m. today with TJ Trout. Stop by if you get the chance. . .

We will broadcast an Election Eve preview on public radio KANW 89.1 FM on November 4 at 5 p.m. Our Election Night coverage on the public radio outlet will start at 6:30 p.m. November 5. 

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What was hyped as one of the closest congressional elections in the nation-- and justifiably based on recent past results, may be turning into something of a bust. 

SurveyUSA, polling for KOB-TV, finally came with a survey of the southern congressional district  that shows Dem Rep. Gabe Vasquez with a substantial nine point lead over Republican Yvette Herrell--51 to 42 with 8 percent undecided. 

What makes the poll conducted among 582 likely voters Sept. 26-30 have added significance is the confirmation it gives to an Emerson College poll taken Aug 20-22 and hat also showed Vasquez with a nine point lead 50-41 with with 9percent undecided.   

That survey was scoffed at by political pros because Vasquez barely beat Herrell in 2022--by only1,350 votes--and her races in 2018 and 2020 were also nail biters. But the company ranks high in accuracy and appears on the way to being vindicated in this race.

The reasons for the Democrat apparently breaking away? The same we've given since Emerson hit the streets. 

--Vasquez is in a friendly Democratic district following the congressional redistricting and it is now taking hold. He was a poor candidate and an unknown when he inched by Herrell in 2022. Today he is more seasoned and known and is commanding more respect with Democrats who must cross over to give Herrell a chance.

--Abortion is an issue that has jolted the Dem female electorate since the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade and continues to cause tremors--even with some GOP women. Herrell started at 48 percent in the early polling but has come down some 7 points following strident attacks by the Dems on her pro-life position,

--A large swath of ABQ's westside and the South Valley--both heavy Dem--are now in the district. While there can be a conservative lean there, this election it may be overwhelmed by reproductive choice.  

THE TOP ISSUES

The #1 issue in the race is immigration and the border, cited by 28 percent of voters polled. That's the banner issue for Herrell but does not seem to be moving the needle anywhere near what she needs. 

Abortion ranks second in importance as an issue in the 2nd congressional district, according to the SurveyUSA which has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.5 percent. That's high enough to help take Vasquez into rarefied polling air for a district that is been an expensive battleground and closely watched around the nation. 

The poll is especially welcome in DC where the Dems need to pick up a handful of seats to take control from the R's and must hold seats like the New Mexico distrcit held by Vasquez.

Inflation is cited as the third most important issue in the poll at 16 percent of voters. Crime is fourth at 12 percent. 

That low ranking in the importance of crime can be attributed in part to the large portion of the district that is rural in  nature and where crime is nowhere near as rampant as it is in the ABQ metro area.

We reported this week that Vasquez has turned down an October 16 KOB-TV vote because he was probably polling well and did not want to drop the ball on statewide TV. This poll confirms that analysis and then some. 

Vazquez, a protege of Sen. Martin Heinrich, still has a way to go to seal the deal but it will take a herculean effort by Herrell and the Republicans in these final weeks.

The ABQ Journal plans to come will come with a poll on the race later this month. 

THOSE TV ADS

Do you notice how the media fact-checking of the initial campaign ads is hot and heavy and then fades away as the campaign goes on. We're as guilty as anyone in that regard. All media is simply overwhelmed by the sheer number of spots and hard-pressed to fact check each and every one. Unfortunately that probably has given rise to ads that stretch the truth. 

Having said that, here is a new round of ads making their way to a TV screen near you.

The national Democrats come with this spot focusing on Yvette Herrell and her stance on the cost of prescription drugs and the future of Social Security and Medicare. The obvious focus is senior voters. 

The campaign of GOP US Senate hopeful Nella Domenici is putting up two new ads on crime:

The Nella for Senate campaign launched two new TV ads slamming Heinrich for the out-of-control crime crisis in New Mexico. In the ad title, Tyrna“ the wife of an Albuquerque police officer calls out Heinrich for being out of touch and allowing the problem to get worse. In the other ad, Crisis," Martin’s record of turning a blind eye to drugs and violence he has allowed to get worse.

IT'S THE ECONOMY

Stansbury, Jeffries, Jones

While abortion is a major motivator for Democratic women voters, there is still concern in the party about reaching Hispanic and Black voters, many of whom have deep economic concerns.

To that end, Dem US Rep. Melanie Stansbury, seeking re-election against Republican Steve Jones of Roswell, hosted US House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries recently at an event at ABQ's New Hope Full Gospel Church. 

She's pictured here with Leader Jeffries and Sandoval County Commissioner Joshua Jones on the right.  

Her office says:

Leader Jeffries and Rep. Stansbury touched on a broad range of topics including how Democrats are delivering for Americans in tangible ways like lowering costs for Americans, expanding access to healthcare, protecting the environment, and ensuring our democracy stays secure. “We have brought millions of dollars back to New Mexico through federal programs, legislation, and Community Project Funding that support education, housing, healthcare, infrastructure, and economic development. . Stansbury said.

 "House Democrats will continue to lean into lowering housing costs and growing the middle class with a particular emphasis on access to affordable homeownership," said Leader Jeffries. "Being able to purchase a home, keeping that home and being able to pass it onto the next generation is central to the great American dream. And we will fight to maintain the principles of free and fair elections and ensure the right to vote, which John Lewis would always say to us, is sacred, is sacrosanct and is essential to the integrity of our democracy. We have to push back against the extreme right-wing efforts to take it away, so one of our top priorities in Congress will be to pass the John Robert Lewis Voting Rights Act."

That voting rights act Jeffries referenced would strengthen aspects of the 1965 Voting Rights Act. It has passed the House but stalled in the Senate. 

Stansbury was first elected in a special election in June 2021 to fill the vacancy created when Deb Haaland became Secretary of the Interior.

Under redistricting most of Bernalillo county remained in her First Congressional District but it was extended south and now includes portions of rural counties, most of which sparsely populated.

In 2022 Stansbury won with 56 percent of the vote over Republican Michelle Garcia Holmes Michelle. 

The Emerson College poll in August had her beating Jones 51 to 37 with 12 percent undecided.

The seat is rated safe Democratic. 

CYFD (ONGOING COVERAGE)

Kevin Berry, who heads up Peak Treatment Foster Care in Roswell, is a Republican with a long-standing interest in child welfare. He writes of our Tuesday blog reporting that Socorro Dem Rep. Tara Jaramillo has broken with the Governor over her opposition on major reform legislation for the troubled Children Youth and Families Department:

Joe, I commend Rep. Jaramillo for her op-ed on CYFD and taking a stand against the Governor's resistance to outside oversight. 

She said: "The problems at CYFD are not funding problems. CYFD is better funded now than it has ever been. The problems at CYFD are the result of a series of organizational failures over decades." A

s someone who has worked in New Mexico's broken child welfare system, she is on the right track but there is more to it. I think it is time for the legislators to take responsibility and own the problem. It's a priority problem, and that is on the legislators. 

Yes, CYFD has had organizational failures for years, but legislators have routinely kicked the can down the road and not held the agency's feet to the fire. Only in the last 3-5 years has their been a stronger effort to get legislation passed that would address many issues and provide outside oversight. 

If Representative Jaramillo is serious about changing CYFD, I would encourage her to build a coalition of bi-partisan support that is veto-proof. The citizens of this great state want change, solutions exists, and our children that CYFD is supposed to be protecting, deserve better. 

Here is a few suggestions in addition to providing outside oversight through the creation of an independent ombudsman. 

--A clearly articulated definition of best-interest placement in the children's code that places an emphasis on safety. When the rights of the parents (abusive) intersect with the safety of the child, the safety of the child takes precedence. 

--Overhaul of CYFD safety plans that make them verifiable, and include mandated drug testing and compliance with court-ordered plan before reunification can occur. 

--Provide specialized training to investigators by trained law enforcement investigators so investigations are more thorough and accurate. 

--Enforce the Kevin S. settlement and codify it into law. Give it teeth. CYFD has failed to meet the requirements year after year. 

--Increase reimbursements to foster parents.

The legislative session is just a few months away, and this an opportunity to make the children of New Mexico a priority, or as one friend put it, "Put the child back in child welfare".

This is the Home of New Mexico Politics.       

Joe Monahan

RED ALERT: Be advised. You are about to enter a Monster Blogging Zone.

The deeply troubled Children, Youth and Families Department (CYFD) has been impervious to major reform but that may be changing as Gov. Lujan Grisham comes under public fire from a Dem state representative normally supportive of her.

Socorro Rep. Tara Jaramillo, locked in a tight race with Republican Rebecca Dow, sponsored a measure to mandate outside supervision of CYFD. It passed the House but stalled in the Senate and is vigorously opposed by MLG. Now Jaramillo unloads on the Governor in an op-ed that will have observers watching for more legislative defections as the January session nears: From Jaramillo: 

My bipartisan bill establishing the Office of the Child Advocate. . .overwhelmingly passed the House. . .More than 25 other states have this office to oversee child welfare. . I believe independent oversight is an essential first step in fixing what’s broken at CYFD.  I was deeply discouraged when a member of my own party, the governor, killed the proposal. I have no doubt the governor cares about the welfare of the vulnerable children in state custody. . . But her resistance to reform in the face of the ongoing crisis at CYFD is misguided. And it is a clear signal to every member of the Legislature that we must execute our power as a co-equal branch of government and implement changes at CYFD — with or without the governor’s support, overriding her vetoes when necessary. The problems at CYFD are not funding problems. CYFD is better funded now than it has ever been.  The problems at CYFD are the result of a series of organizational failures over decades.

Is the stage being set for more accountability at CYFD? Stay tuned,

DEBATING WITH VASQUEZ

Update: KOB TV has released a SurveyUSA poll that shows Vasquez leading Herrell 51 to 42 percent with 8 percent undecided.  

The poll was taken among 582 likely voters September 26 to 30 and is similar to an Emerson College poll taken in late August that also showed Vasquez ahead by nine points.

 The campaign of Dem Rep. Gabe Vasquez is trying to fade the heat their getting over refusing to debate Republican Yvette Herrell on KOB-TV October 16. 

They say that Vasquez has offered "multiple" other dates for such a debate but Herrell refuses to "compromise."

Vasquez's campaign declined comment when we asked just why he would be unable to put aside a few hours on the 16th for a broadcast debate that would more fully inform voters about the candidates.

The Herrell campaign says it wanted a debate earlier than the 16th because early voting starts October 8th (today) but Vasquez wanted it on the 21st, well after widespread early voting had begun. The 16th was offered as a compromise. KOB says:

After a great deal of back-and-forth on possible dates, KOB selected a date. The debate opportunity was declined by the Vasquez camp. 

Then there's this false equivalency offered up by the Vasquez forces: 

Vasquez's allies were quick to point out Herrell's absence on Thursday from a meeting of the All Pueblo Council of Governors. The group is a non-profit organization that represents 19 Pueblos in New Mexico on government and cultural issues. 

But that meeting was not a statewide TV debate accessible to the 200,000 or so voters who will cast ballots in the southern congressional race. 

Besides, the Pueblo Council has already endorsed Kamala Harris for president. They are not a neutral party like the TV station.

Campaigns willing to debate jump at the chance and readily adjust their calendars to make a statewide appearance. 

So what does this tell us? Exactly what we reported on Monday's blog--that Vasquez is nursing a polling lead and doesn't want to fumble the ball in a debate with the feisty Herrell. 

As that guy on TV was fond of saying: "That's the way it is."  

FROM BAD TO WORSE

Its gone from bad to worse for Nella Domenici when it comes to the thorny question of abortion. Well, thorny for Republicans such as her but easy-peasy for pro-choice Dems like Sen. Martin Heinrich who she seeks to unseat.

Nella's latest mishap over the issue comes in an interview with a columnist for the ABQ Journal that was so tortured it resulted in this take from column author Jay Newton-Small:

Why is Domenici twisting herself into pretzels on this issue? She’s losing women. Heinrich led Domenici among women in the latest Albuquerque Journal poll 55% to 33%. And she’s not the only one: Trump was losing women to Vice President Kamala Harris by the same margin.

Then audio of the 19 minute exchange was released by the paper. For Nella's backers it's not what you would call easy listening.

She pounds Heinrich for asserting that she supports a national abortion ban but when asked how she would vote in the Senate on a bill that would make access to abortion a woman's right, she refused to answer. 

Then, in a violation of everything Professor Joe has taught in Blogging Campaign Class 101, one of Nella's handlers interrupts the phone interview, and says to the columnist as she continues asking about the abortion rights issue:   

“We're talking hypotheticals here. Do you have any other points you can talk about?” 

Well, yes. Like this one:

Please be quiet and let me interview this candidate for the US Senate about one of the most crucial issues of the day. Also, with all due respect, I'll decide what is hypothetical and what isn't while you sit there and cringe while your campaign comes undone. Got that? 

Of course, the columnist was genteel and said nothing of the kind but we could not resist giving you a taste of how this game was played when the old school prevailed--and class is always in session around here. 

MORE DOMENICI DAMAGE

Also during the interview (at 12:03) Domenici declared:

(Heinrich) has completely lied and said that when I am in the Senate I will be controlled by male senators which is disgusting. I am one of the most independent-minded people he'll ever meet and to say that I will bow to some male senators when they ask me to to do things I disagree with--it's outrageous. 

Okay, so then why let a campaign handler dictate the conduct of your interview with a journalist? If that's not bowing down, it is deferring to him and that calls into question your independence, your ability to think on your feet and to act independently.

Heinrich's camp is all over Nella for the flailing interview but she does have a lot going for her. 

That includes her steely determination, her success in business and family life; her impressive education and the savvy and smarts to be a Senator. But here's the but. . .

To get to the United States Senate you have to demonstrate you are a qualified candidate and that's a test Nella and her clueless handlers are continually failing.

(Sorry, handlers. Any other points you would like us to talk about?)

VOTING STARTS TODAY

Here's the low down from Bernalillo County Clerk Linda Stover's office: 

Early voting starts today at the Clerk’s Annex, located at 1500 Lomas Blvd NW, with hours from Monday through Friday, 8 a.m. to 5 p.m. Additional locations and extended hours will be available starting Oct. 19. Voters can access their sample ballots on line. In addition to the presidential race, the ballot will include races for state representatives, state senators, county officials, and Bernalillo County municipal court judges. Voters will also decide on County and City questions, constitutional amendments, and measures such as AMAFCA and Ciudad Soil and Water Conservation. For more information about the election.

And from Santa Fe County Clerk Katharine Clark:

Starting today, all Santa Fe County residents can vote early at the Clerk's Office during regular business hours, 8am - 5pm Monday through Friday through November 1, 2024. Voting will not be available on Indigenous People’s Day, Monday, October 14th. Early voting at the clerk’s office will be on one Saturday only, November 2, 2024. More lection information here. 

JOHN ARTHUR SMITH

(Moore, ABQ Journal)

John Arthur Smith was as important as a legislator could be, chairing for 13 years the most powerful committee of them all, Senate Finance. 

During his time he often thwarted the spending dreams of governors whether they be Democratic or Republican, so much so that former Governor Big Bill dubbed him "Dr. No," a nickname that stuck and that Smith relished. 

Finally, in 2020, Smith was defeated in a Democratic primary by the progressives he had been so at odds with over his 31 year Senate career. 

Smith died Monday at 82 of stomach cancer.

The Democrat from Deming took the reins of Senate Finance as the Great Recession was hitting in 2009 and New Mexico was feeling the pinch. Smith applied a fix and the state was steadied. 

He also exercised unflinching oversight of state government programs in his role as chairman of the Legislative Finance Committee (LFC) the legislature's most consequential vehicle for formulating policy and budgets. 

We found his budget austerity in the early years of his chairmanships spot on but disagreed with him as the state began to fundamentally change around ten years ago. That's when the argument broke out over expanding early childhood education and other social initiatives to halt a worsening quality of life for so many. 

He was steadfast in his opposition to a constitutional amendment to fund early childhood education and it was not until he left in 2021 that the amendment was approved by lawmakers and in '22 by voters. 

But Smith was no scrooge. He disliked the amendment because it relied on the multi-billion dollar Land Grant Permanent School Fund. In his later years he did author a bill for an Early Childhood Trust Fund that gets excess oil revenue and now holds $9 billion. 

The debate over budgets can be mundane and does not often engage the everyday citizen but that is the nuts and bolts of government. He who masters the budget masters the legislature. 

John Arthur Smith certainly mastered both and in the process earned a chapter in the never-ending book of La Politica. 

SMITH REACTION

Gov. Lujan Grisham had these comments on Sen. Smith's passing: 

 I join New Mexicans in mourning the loss of Sen. John Arthur Smith, an extraordinary public servant and a cherished colleague and mentor of mine and many other public servants in our state. Senator Smith was committed to fiscal responsibility while consistently aiming to improve quality of life for all New Mexicans. His leadership of the Senate Finance Committee helped put the state on sound financial footing and earned respect from colleagues across the political spectrum. Senator was not only a masterful legislator; he was kind and honest. He provided an example of ethical and decent conduct that all elected officials, including those in Washington, D.C., would be wise to follow. Senator Smith’s lifetime of dedication to New Mexico leaves a legacy that will continue to benefit our communities for generations to come. All New Mexicans owe him a debt of gratitude. 

Republican Party of New Mexico Chairman Steve Pearce issued the following statement:

We are deeply saddened by the news of John Arthur Smith's passing. John Arthur Smith dedicated over three decades of service in the New Mexico Senate. While we may not have aligned with all of his positions, Senator Smith consistently sought to find common ground on what unites us, rather than divides us, a quality often absent in today's political climate. In the Senate, he prioritized fiscal responsibility as a steward of New Mexicans' tax dollars and demonstrated courage in opposing his own party when it did not serve the best interests of his constituents. The Republican Party of New Mexico extends our heartfelt condolences to John Arthur Smith's family and loved ones as we acknowledge and honor his contributions to our state. 

Ladies and gentlemen, that concludes today's Monster Blog. Those in need of any medical attention from over exertion please contact a professional of your political party's choice.

This is the Home of New Mexico Politics.