ABQ Mayor Tim Keller has officially announced his bid for an unprecedented third consecutive term, defending his leadership on crime and homelessness and asserting that the "turmoil from Washington" requires "an experienced fighter."

News release here. One minute video here. 

Keller said:

At City Hall, we are relentless problem solvers, tackling Albuquerque’s toughest challenges head-on every day. We hear your concerns about long-standing local issues, compounded by the turmoil from Washington, D.C. That’s why now, more than ever,  Albuquerque needs an experienced fighter who will protect its future—and that’s why I’m running for reelection.

The ongoing crime wave will be the central issue of the campaign leading up the November 4 election and Keller's campaign, while acknowledging the "challenges" the city still faces, contends that crime is on the wane:

When Mayor Keller took office, crime was rising across the board, and officers were leaving the force. Today, under his leadership, crime rates are declining, the police force is being rebuilt, and the department is nearly finished with DOJ-mandated reforms. Additionally, the Albuquerque Community Safety (ACS) Department has helped free up police resources, enabling faster emergency response. We remain committed to ensuring every street in our city is safe.

With that Keller set the city up for a spirited debate on whether crime is indeed coming down or remains as fierce as ever.  

On the other top public concern--homelessness--the campaign says:

When Mayor Keller took office, Albuquerque had no city permanent shelter beds for the unhoused. Last year, his administration delivered a breakthrough, opening the Gateway System, which shelters 1,000 people each night. Now, Mayor Keller is doubling down by expanding housing units to get even more people off the streets.

The Gateway is open but not near full capacity which sets up another contentious cross fire with his foes. They include former Bernalillo County Sheriff Darren White and former Bernalillo County Economic Development Director Mayling Armijo with conservative radio talker Eddy Aragon saying he will run again but who has not yet made it official.

(Art by Peter St. Cyr)

Crime and homelessness will be the battlegrounds but Keller's leadership record in other areas is less controversial. His campaign calls that leadership "visionary.":

Seven years ago, there was no clear vision for Downtown, the Railyards, or expanding family-friendly activities. Today, that has changed. The CNM Railyards Media Academy is set to bring hundreds of students into the heart of our city every day. Downtown is experiencing a revival, with new restaurants, hotels, and vibrant developments. The Rail Trail will soon connect Albuquerque’s historic neighborhoods through a scenic pedestrian parkway that celebrates our city’s rich diversity. Meanwhile, Netflix continues to grow, employing thousands of local residents and solidifying Albuquerque’s place in the film industry.

The more those issues are discussed the better for Keller whose popularity has been submerged by a general decline in the quality of life in the city as crime and homelessness have become more commonplace.

His administration argues ABQ is part of a larger picture with those complex issues challenging not just ABQ but cities across the nation.

Keller's mention of the "turmoil" in DC plays into his hands as ABQ progressive Democrats may feel again compelled to go to the polls to protest the rule of Trump as they did during the President's first term during the mayoral election of 2017.

So far, Keller is the candidate in the race with the most appeal to the city's large progressive block and he listed notable progressives endorsing his candidacy in his announcement release.

Keller has opted for public financing. If he qualifies as he did in his first two runs, he will receive a hefty $756,000 in taxpayer money for the campaign. 

In addition, a PAC apart from that funding that will seek private donations to bolster his chances is expected to form as was the case in his first two runs. 

THE KELLER FILE

When first elected seven years ago Keller was the State Auditor and a former ABQ state senator about to turn 40. His boyish good looks, media charisma and political smarts enabled him to win in a landslide over City Councilor Dan Lewis.

Seeking re-election in 2021 and already dealing with the crime wave and homelessness, he still dominated, scoring a 56 percent win over his two opponents and avoiding a run-off election that would have been forced if he had not taken a majority of the vote.

Getting 50 percent this time and avoiding a run-off may be more complicated considering his weaker poll numbers and with perhaps more than three candidates qualifying for the ballot.

But there's no question Keller has dodged a bullet thus far by not drawing an opponent similar to the candidate he was in 2017, a relatively new face bursting with enthusiasm to take command of the city.

Keller, now 47, is a graduate of St Pius High and has an MBA from Harvard. His wife, Elizabeth Kisten Keller, holds a PhD and works in policy analysis at Los Alamos National Labs. They are raising two  young children. 

This is the Home of New Mexico Politics.        

Efforts to reform the state's medical malpractice system are going nowhere at the Roundhouse. Reformers are now hoping that they at least can get a bill that does away with what remains of the tax on medical services as they work to ease a severe shortage of doctors. Malpractice reform is falling victim to the sway of the powerful trial lawyers lobby. They're kind of like the powerful liquor lobby was back in the day. . .. 

Not that today's liquor lobby is toothless. The bill to increase the tax on booze as a means of combating the state's high death rate from alcohol related diseases also is not going anywhere this session. 

There's still a shot at getting outside oversight placed at the troubled Children, Families and Youth Department but it's a long one. The House approved HB5 that calls for placing a child advocate at the AG's office to oversee CYFD. It gets a hearing from the Senate Judiciary Committee today. The optimists are not out in force.

The campaign of Dem Guv candidate Deb Haland is cashing in on her high profile and reports raising $2 million in her first month on the trail. Could Dem Bernalillo County District Attorney Sam Bregman do the same if he gets in the race? Probably not but neither would he be in the poorhouse. Will he run? As of today, all systems are go, according to several of his close friends we spoke with. That more or less freezes the Guv race until he formally decides.

STOP TRUMP DERANGEMENT?

Let's dip into the reader mailbag for thoughts on issues of the day. 

Loyola Chastain comes with this missive on the legislature as well as President Trump:

Joe, I wanted to add my $.02 to the discussion of the Democrats childish, tantrum display at President Trump's address to Congress. I am sick of the Trump Derangement Syndrome (TDS) that has gripped half of our nation. If all the Democrats can do is act like petulant children, that party is doomed. 

Look at our own Legislature. They have all of this money from the oil and gas industry and they do nothing but put it in rainy day funds and refuse to improve our impoverished state. As you have stated many times, it is pouring in this state, however the legislature turns a blind eye to the many problems we face. 

I have grown up in this state and witnessed the good old boy politics that persists, where it is not what you know but who you know that wins the day and has kept New Mexico in the doldrums. New Mexicans have suffered greatly because our legislature refused to do anything to raise New Mexicans standard of living when they have had ample opportunity to do so. 

I have been tired of the "uni-party" we have in this country for a number of years. I find it doesn't matter who sits at the Resolute Desk, the Congress does nothing for American citizens. Again, this is why Trump was elected. 

I am no fan of Trump, however, I am a fan of America and I am hoping Trump is able to do something for the people. If he is unable to accomplish anything to improve the lives of the citizens, then it shows America is doomed to remain an oligarchical country. 

MELANIE'S SIGN

Reader Andre Larroque of Cedar Crest has thoughts on that viral moment at Trump's address to Congress that had ABQ Dem US Rep. Melanie Stansbury sporting a sign that read, "this is not normal.":

Congresswoman Stansbury was only stating the obvious with her tiny sign at the presidential address last week. ‘Normal’ would have been a presidential message to the nation fostering unity instead of partisan division. While the Dems in the audience holding manufactured signs seemed orchestrated in comparison to Melanie’s individual act, she got her point across in an effective manner. Having a sophomoric GOP represenative from Texas grab it from her hands and rip it to bits like a schoolyard bully helped amplify her message exponentially. That was not normal.

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Trump & Secretary Lutnick

The element of surprise is a hallmark of the Trump administration and they've pulled a big one when it comes to providing high speed broadband to rural residents here and nationally who are still waiting for a connection. 

The surprise could mean a major breakthrough in getting high speed internet deployed years sooner to the 140,000 "underserved locations" the Governor cited in 2024 when announcing the state's $675 million share of federal broadband funding.

The roll out of of broadband is excruciatingly slow and expensive for New Mexicans in need of service because of the difficulty in laying high speed fiber optic fiber--up until now the preferred method of delivery. 

But to the shock of the state Broadband Office and to the delight of rural residents, US Commerce Secretary Harold Lutnick has torn up the old broadband script and placed high speed satellite delivery front and center:

The Commerce Department has launched a rigorous review of the BEAD program.  The Department is ripping out the Biden Administration’s pointless requirements.  It is revamping the BEAD program to take a tech-neutral approach that is rigorously driven by outcomes, so states can provide internet access for the lowest cost. Additionally, the Department is exploring ways to cut government red tape that slows down infrastructure construction. We will work with states and territories to quickly get rid of the delays and the waste. Thereafter we will move quickly to implementation in order to get households connected. “Under the revamped BEAD program, all Americans will receive the benefit of the bargain that Congress intended.  We’re going to deliver high-speed internet access, and we will do it efficiently and effectively at the lowest cost to taxpayers.”

There is controversy over that bombshell announcement because satellite company Starlink is owned by Elon Musk and could obtain $10 to $20 billion in contracts under the new rules. 

Telecommunications companies are currently receiving the lion's share of the billions in federal broadband funding.

Satellite has been criticized for not being as fast as fiber but that does not take into account future higher speeds that are anticipated. 

Also, the current satellite speeds available are more than sufficient for the vast majority of internet-deprived New Mexicans to perform their necessary tasks and similar to what many city residents are now utilizing.

We challenge those critics to contradict those facts.

Letting political views interfere with a dramatic advancement for the state's stranded homes and businesses would only hold back educational and economic development. 

The Broadband Office here has told the legislature that relying more on satellite and other nonfiber alternatives is not realistic because changing the method of funding would require congressional approval. But that appears to not be the case as Trump and Secretary Lutnick advance the adoption of satellite (and hallelujah to that).

Amazon also has a satellite interent service and that will be another option for states in addition to Musk-owned Starlink. 

President Biden deserves credit and thanks for pushing through the massive funding to bring the nation up to speed. But this decision with such a positive impact on New Mexico might prompt even staunch Trump opponents to ask: "What's not to like?"

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The ABQ mayoral field is growing. The newest addition is former Bernalillo County Sheriff Darren White and also includes Mayor Tim Keller, radio talker Eddy Aragon, former Sandoval County Deputy Manager Mayling Armijo, Patrick Sais, who tried and failed to make the 2021 mayoral ballot, and retired firefighter Eddie Varela.

White says he will attempt to qualify for public financing as will Keller. If they do, their campaigns would each receive $756,000, a large amount for an election expected to draw 100,000 plus voters. 

Aragon says he will also seek public financing. Sais and Varela, 72, will also try but are seen as having little chance of succeeding. Candidate Armijo will not seek public financing. 

The magic number in the first found of voting November 4 is 50 percent. If a candidate reaches that level, they declare victory and avoid a run-off election a month later. If not, a run-off is held between the two top vote-getters.

In 2021 Keller beat Aragon and BernCo Sheriff Manny Gonzales by garnering 56 percent of the vote in the first round. 

2025 is creating a sense of deja vu, with Keller, 47, and Aragon, 50, running again and White, another conservative Republican and controversial Sheriff, taking the place of Gonzales (who ran in '21 as a Dem but is now an R.)

White launched his campaign with a two minute video devoted to lamenting the city's high crime rate with a side of homelessness throw in. He cited the 660 murders that have have occurred since Keller became mayor seven years ago. That's a stunning total but so far this year murders are dropping considerably.

APD reports five homicides in the first two months of the year, compared to 10 at the same time in 2024. If the rate stays low, it could soften the blows Keller will take as he seeks a third consecutive term.  

White outlines his platform on his web site, leaving little question that his will be an all-crime-all-the-time campaign. In a fund-raising letter he sent out before he officially announced, he highlighted his opposition to ABQ being a Sanctuary City as a key campaign plank:

One of Keller's first acts as Mayor was too make ABQ a Sanctuary City for illegal immigrants who commit crimes. Now we have case after case of violent crimes being committed by illegal immigrants, many of who have been arrested multiple times but turned back onto the streets by this Mayor's backward policies. As Mayor, I will end the Sanctuary City law immediately.

NO FREE PASS

Eddy Aragon

But White, 61, will not get a pass on the crime rate nor on the APD/SheriffDWI scandal or on his skills managing a police department.  His rivals are already busy pushing out White's record.

He was ABQ's Chief Public Safety Officer in charge of APD under GOP Mayor Richard Berry when in 2011 he was forced to to resign amid controversy over police shootings and a car accident involving his wife. The APD officers union gave him a vote of no confidence.

In 2010 White and other lawmen "trampled" through the home of noted attorney and police critic Mary Han who had been found dead in her car in her North Valley garage. The death was called a suicide but the cause was later changed to "undetermined. The AG at the time said the cause--which could have been murder--could not be definitely determined because of the botched police investigation.

During his time as sheriff from 2002-2008 the decades-long DWI scandal was operating with officers taking bribes that went undetected by White and other law enforcement leadership. 

When White was state Director of Public Safety under GOP Governor Gary Johnson he was an adamant foe of legalized drugs and resigned in protest when Johnson came out for legal pot. But when Susana Martinez became governor White supported legalized marijuana and benefited from a state license he was awarded to sell medical marijuana. 

In 2018 White's marijuana company donated $11,000 to the Guv campaign of Democrat Michelle Lujan Grisham. He has since sold his share of the company.

In 1999 the NM State Police Officers Association voted no confidence in White. They said he wasn’t doing enough to get State Police equipment and cars. White called the charges “ridiculous.” 

THE DONALD FACTOR

Hovering over this election, as he did in 2017, is Donald Trump. That presence helped Keller take the mayoral office that year with a landslide win in a run-off election against City Councilor Dan Lewis.  

Former ABQ city councilor, attorney and political consultant Greg Payne says Trump's large shadow could again impact the vote:

That will probably help Keller. Even though his polling numbers are low, none of the candidates is challenging his Democratic and progressive base. Even with enthusiasm for him not at previous levels,  many voters could decide to go for "the devil you know" rather than switching horses.

The simple math is that there are more Dems and Dem leaning independents than Republicans and right leaning indys. For Dems who do not want Keller, they have little alternative in the current field.

Trump did grow his vote percentages in the north in the 2024 election, but there was only a very slight uptick in his Bernalillo county performance where for a decade the vote has been trending heavy blue.

KELLER'S ODDS

Mayor Keller

The best bet for the anti-Keller crowd is to force him into third place in the initial election thus ending his political career. The odds of that are low, although in the past it has happened.

A run-off electon with any of his foes, including Armijo who is at best a nominal Democrat, might not be a lay-up for Keller but also not a very steep climb. 

The $755K in public money is difficult to qualify for (3,780 qualifying $5.00 donations) but Keller has the campaign machine to do it. Also, a PAC separate from Keller's campaign is expected to form giving him additional ammo to fend off the multi-candidate attack now forming against him.

It is uncertain if White and Aragon will be able to qualify for the public financing.  

And there is already battling between Republicans White and Aragon. Aragon attacks White as a "corrupt failure" and promises a "bloodbath" between them. He adds that White supporters lobbied him to get out of the race. Aragon received 18 percent of the vote in 2021.

City Hall Alligators report Keller briefly considered responding to White's entry into the race but  concluded it did not merit one. 

In a field with no stand-out candidate who could unite the anti-Keller sentiment, the race remains Keller's to lose. That may go against the expected odds but it is the mayoral math of 2025. 

This is the Home of New Mexico Politics.