Chair Wertheim
NM Dem Party Chair John Wertheim is under the gun to pull it out for Kerry here, and he's also under fire from his own party for the recent fury over voter ID. "The Republicans won this one hands down, even though they lost in court. They shifted the debate to the fraud issue, always a touchy subject here, and John never came back convincingly with how many people would be disenfranchised," offered up a Wertheim sympathizer.

Republicans have been hammering he Dems on this one, losing the court case over voter ID for newly registered voters but scoring a KO in the PR war. Bush NM GOP consultant Jay McCleskey has resurfaced for this battle.

Meantime, Wertheim has moved on to a new front: keeping Ralph Nader off the NM ballot, even though Nader turned in twice as many petition signatures as required. A Dem consultant told me the Nader factor was not relevant a month ago when Kerry was strong, but now that he has weakened, Nader is back on the radar and the Dems fear a repeat of his 4% NM performance in 2000. Of course, the Dems could always concentrate on getting a good, strong message out from their own campaign. Couldn't they?

#5 AND COUNTING

It's spot #5 for D Congressional hopeful Richard Romero and still no hits on Heather. Romero unveiled a spot on teacher pay which baffled some who said it did not appeal to the conservative Dems he needs. The Romero vs. Wilson refrain remains the same: When does the campaign begin? So far it's been a bunch of tepid TV ads. You might think each of them was running unopposed.

JOIN ME ON THE TUBE TODAY

VP Cheney and Kerry are both in ABQ today as NM remains a hotly contested battleground state. I will have analysis on the visits and the campaign at 4:20 p.m. today on KRQE-TV Channel 13 in ABQ so stop by and join me.

LINK AROUND

We have begun linking to the NM candidate web sites as they send them in. This one is from Dem
Congressman Tom Udall who is seeking re-election from the Northern Congressional seat. Check it out and send me your candidate's web site so we can all take a look. If you want a full-time ad presence contact me about advertising via e mail.

Make our site, WWW.JOEMONAHAN.COM one of your favorites and e-mail a link to interested friends. Interested in advertising to NM's large political community? E-mail me from the top right of this page, or call 505-243-4059 for details.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2004
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Diane Denish
We've all seen the latest polling numbers on the state's top politicos, but what about those near the top and who may be the future top dogs? The ABQ Journal survey did not gauge voter opinion of arch-rivals Dem Lt. Guv Diane Denish and Dem AG Patricia Madrid who may be destined for another future face-off, so we went hunting.

According to a top D with inside knowledge, polls have been taken of the dynamic duo, but not for media purposes. Those polls are apparently conducted by politicos or the party. They show Madrid with an approval rating in the 60% area, not far behind Big Bill's 63% in the Journal. For the Light Guv, a source close to her says her approval rating is "about the same as" Patsy's.

Madrid has been in high-profile battles with the Guv. Denish has been lower profile but was prominent during the last legislative session and has traveled the state working her pet causes. Denish can also be expected to be noticeable during the closing weeks of the Prez campaign as she was an early and ardent backer of Kerry, while Madrid heartily supported John Edwards for Prez.

Patsy's tiff with Big Bill, claims a source close to the action, has not set well with the Kerry campaign, thus she's not been seen with Edwards during his two recent NM visits. Patsy's forces claim she voluntarily stayed away because she did not want to have her division with the Guv highlighted at the expense of the Prez ticket. Whatever the case, she has lost some good PR shots while Denish is positioned above the partisan fray. Stay tuned.

THOSE OLD PREZ BLUES

It's not quite wailing in the night, but you can definitely hear the gnashing of teeth among NM's top Dems as they look wistfully back at a month ago when Kerry was on top of the world. But as the old saw goes, a couple of weeks in politics is an eternity. And now it's the D's turn to hit the panic button, much like the Bushies did when they were lost in the wilderness. The old Dem pros are not throwing in the towel, not yet, but they are having to spend time keeping their youngsters in line who are not experienced in the savagery and bloodshed of big time, major-league politics and stunned at the Bush move.

"The Kerry campaign is telling me they have had over 4,000 people volunteer in NM, an incredible number, but the candidate has not yet found his message. John Edwards was brought in to Santa Fe to keep the base motivated during this down period. The campaign begged for them to send someone," analyzed one deep insider Dem.

For his part, Kerry has to be disappointed that NM is not yet put away. He had a shot back in August, but since then has been treading water and will have to work it hard to nail it down. Big Bill is raising the big bucks to boost the turnout which Kerry's brain trust is counting on, but the pressure is building. He will visit vital ABQ Thursday and Friday. "He needs to start hitting the ball hard and out of the park. The message must be found and he has to start breaking through," rued our high-level Democrat who has seen and done it all in La Politica.

THE CURE FOR THE BLUES

Much like Bush came alive when he hit the state last month, Kerry needs a similar performance. "If he is not tied with Bush near the end of the month, there will be blood in the water," said our insider. What will move them? "I don't know," was the brutally frank comeback. But experienced R's are holding their gloating. They know this is just the beginning of the mood swings of Campaign 04' and are advising their youngsters new to warfare to strap themselves in because it's going to be a bumpy ride.

Make our site, WWW.JOEMONAHAN.COM one of your favorites and e-mail a link to interested friends. Interested in advertising to NM's large political community? E-mail me from the top right of this page, or call 505-243-4059 for details.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2004
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Ravi Bhasker
Sometimes it's just best to stand up and take your medicine. The decision by Socorro mayor and medical doctor Ravi Bhasker to fight his punishment for a DWI rap may be costing him in his race for State Rep in Socorro County against Republican incumbent Don Tripp. The race has drawn statewide attention because of the Bhasker controversy and because it's seen as a swing district.

Bhasker hs a filed a district Court appeal of a ruling by the NM Medical Board that orders him on probation and into a alcohol treatment program. But a deep Dem insider on the ground for us in Socorro says while Ravi is popular, there are cracks in the dam.

"Bhasker's got the backing of the former Deaniacs here, because he was a Howard Dean supporter, as well as from an energized Socorro Democratic Party. Still, I think this will be a tough race, and Ravi's DWI doesn't help. Tripp is also personable, and people might vote for him for that reason alone," reports our tapped-in insider.

If she's got it right it will be welcome news to the GOP which hopes to pick up a seat or two in the State House this cycle. Losing Tripp could put that goal out of reach. Bhasker might be playing better if he had just admitted a mistake and gone on. We are told he is one of Socorro's most popular mayor's of recent times.

BACK ON THE TRAIL

Tom Carroll, former executive director of the NM GOP who was thrown to the sharks earlier this year in the intra-party turmoil that wracked the party, has resurfaced in La Politica. Carroll of Santa Fe is back in the Big Duke City heading up the committee to get ABQ's street bond issue passed. They called in Carroll because the hyper-controversial Paseo del Norte Road extension cost the city a big bond package with the voters last year. With an expected big General Election turnout, supporters are more confident this time around. But anti-Paseo opponents are expected to again wage war, thus the Carroll hiring who has a long campaign resume.

THE WEB CAMPAIGN

The politicos are coming out in force in all media, including our beloved Web. I said I would start linking to candidate web sites for the junkies who love em'. So send me your candidate web location and I will post it here. If you want more you can contact me about advertising.

We kick things off with Republican Kathy Leyendecker who is challenging State Rep. Al Park in a premier legislative race in the ABQ's SE Heights. We will post web sites from across the state. Email them to me at the link on the top right of this page.

Make our site, WWW.JOEMONAHAN.COM one of your favorites and e-mail a link to interested friends. Interested in advertising to NM's large political community? E-mail me from the top right of this page, or call 505-243-4059 for details.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2004
Not for reproduction without permission of the author

Despite a recent spate of bad news and hits from his opponents, Big Bill is still the man. How else to react to his job performance rating by Research & Polling in the ABQ Journal over the weekend?

The approval is especially gratifying to the Fourth Floor of the Roundhouse because the poll comes after two years in office in which the Big Fella, warts and all, has become better known to New Mexicans.

Veteran pollster Brian Sanderoff had it right when he said New Mexicans like the national prominence Big Bill has brought to NM. But I would go a step further and add that a 63% approval, even if you reduce it a couple of points for the margin of error, is also an endorsement of his policies, particularly his emphasis on getting our little land out of the 50th ranking in just about everything.

The 44% approval from registered R's is due in no small part to his tax cuts for the wealthy, but he enjoys goodwill across the board for the same reason he was elected in a landslide: New Mexico is tired of being in the doldrums, and while Big Bill hasn't moved the economic rankings--that could take years--his eye is on the ball and he puts in overtime on the job. How would you evaluate an employee if he did the same for your business?

THEY CAN'T SAY NO

Just as important as his taking the job seriously is the lack of organized opposition to his administration. The R's could probably have him in the 50's but they have been at each others throats, not his, thus they have been unable to raise his negatives.

In fact, the main opposition has come from a fellow Democrat, Attorney General Madrid, and more recently, from some tough newspaper pieces on the huge amounts of money he has raised and how that impacts state policy. But Big Bill has pulled in his horns when the heat gets too high. Witness the recent turnabout on that state airplane controversy. It may have been late, but he avoided a festering problem and an issue
that could finally galvanize the opposition.

A final thought. It seems New Mexicans are embracing the concept of a more powerful governorship in recent years. Gary Johnson was also accused of being a bully, but the public hung with him because of his defiance of the then-liberal Legislative leadership. Gary was rewarded for holding the line. Big Bill has a tougher assignment. He is working for tangible results. So far, the public is patient and willing to ride with him, maybe not at 110 miles an hour in an SUV up Interstate 25, but cruising speed is just fine, thank you.

ET TU, MARTY?

Meanwhile, back here in River City, ABQ Mayor Marty Chavez almost matched Bill. He came in with a 62% approval nod from city residents in the Journal poll. The Mayor recently weathered a headline grabbing divorce and earlier, the ABQ PAC fundraising controversy.

Again, I agree with Brian that a more peaceful relationship with the City Council is key to his revival, but would add, like Big Bill, he is relentless on the job, working far more hours than most would expect. Mayor Marty (who your blogger has worked for) is also the beneficiary of no organized opposition. He is up for re-election in just a year and is no doubt hoping his high numbers will chase off any big players.

Polls, as they always say, are snapshots in time and potholes always await these two high-profile politicos. The mayor will anxiously wait how his numbers stack up when alternative candidates surface and Big Bill has a more restive Legislature to face next year. But for now times are good and these students of Clinton have reason to chomp on their unlighted cigars before the next round begins.

NM PREZ BATTLE

Slate Magazine is out with a look at NM's swing state status in the Prez race. Writer Bryan Curtis interviewed a wide range of political junkies statewide, including yours truly, to come to his conclusions.

Make our site, WWW.JOEMONAHAN.COM one of your favorites and e-mail a link to interested friends. Interested in advertising to NM's large political community? E-mail me from the top right of this page, or call 505-243-4059 for details.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2004
Not for reproduction without permission of the author