Vigil
Most of us common folk have lost patience with the argument that the special session of the Legislature starting today in Santa Fe is just about giving out rebates so people can buy gasoline. What this historic session is really about is a test of wills between a defiant, renegade elected official and the Legislature of the state of New Mexico. The most pressing question is not whether consumers will get a tax rebate--and they should--but whether the body politic of our state has the guts to take a stand and do the job it is assigned in the Constitution. That job is impeachment.

In the aftermath of Treasurer Robert Vigil defiantly returning to work Wednesday, despite being under federal indictment for corruption and kickbacks, there is no other issue more important to the long-range economic well-being or the progress of this state than moving quickly to restore integrity and confidence to the office of the Treasurer. How can business be conducted in an American state that conducts its affairs like a South American banana republic? Besides, there are 49 other states people can live and conduct their affairs.

One leading Dem, seeing the Vigil return to work and some politicking in the embryonic impeachment, gave this advice. "The governor has been tough, but he needs to be tougher. Ditto for the Attorney General and ditto for the leaders of the House."

That last reference was to the reticence of House Speaker Ben Lujan to sign on to the impeachment which would halt Vigil from touching our money while he awaits trial in the Senate. Aspiring Speaker and House Majority Leader Ken Martinez has jumped in to fill the void and called for the process to move forward. Speaker Lujan ought to get the message. A storm is building out here and a hard rain is going to fall next year on his Democratic party if business as usual continues. And Big Bill for President? How do renegade treasurers fit into a national economic plan?

THE HOBBS FACTOR
Leader Hobbs
House GOP leader Ted Hobbs is now also under the spotlight after issuing a perplexing statement that impeachment should not be taken up and that the federal government should go ahead and handle the matter. Is leader Hobbs fearful that Republican U.S. Attorney David Iglesias, who won the Vigil indictment, will not get credit for prosecuting the scandal if Dems impeach Vigil? And what about NM GOP Chair Allen Weh favoring impeachment? Why is Hobbs splitting with his party? It's hard to believe that the state GOP can screw up this one, but look at what they did Tuesday night in ABQ with Brad Winter.

Impeachment can and should be a bipartisan matter. Legislators, R's and D's, should form a united front with the governor. Let all the politicans get some credit, but first let them get the guts to get the job done.

ELECTION CLEAN-UP

It's been a whirl of activity around here this ABQ election week. Here's some clean-up stuff. Philip Muller of Political Technologies, says, contrary to what was blogged here, the liberal consulting group Soltari was not involved in the ABQ city council race won by Muller client Ike Benton. Soltari, however, did refer Muller to Benton...Brad Winter did make media appearances Election Night. We blogged otherwise. Of course, tucked away in a radio studio calling the election gives one limited opportunities to see the TV coverage. Winter continued to defend the negative campaign conducted on his behalf and that had him placing third in a four man race.

DID I REALLY WRITE THAT?

"Joe, please consult a good dictionary for the difference between flaunt and flout. I doubt that Robert Vigil would ever flaunt Bill Richardson!" That reader is right. Check out today's headline to see how I made good.

And didn't I mean "routs" not "routes" in my headline yesterday describing Mayor Chavez's victory? See what happens when you write headlines at 2 a.m. with no Starbucks?

THE BOTTOM LINE
Lt. Gov. Denish
And here's one inspired by Light Guv Diane Denish. She phoned in to KANW Election Night to dispute our statement that no African-American had ever been elected to the ABQ city council saying Dr. Solomon Brown was in the 70's. But we pointed out that Brown was appointed to fill a vacancy and was defeated for election. But Diane can say "gotcha" right back. Seems I said that Dr. Brown filled the seat of Joe Abeyta on the council those many years ago. Not so. It was the seat held by Dr. Jack Kolbert. By the way, Councilor Abeyta went on to be State Rep Jose Abeyta when he moved to Wagon Mound, NM.

I know. That’s way more information than you needed. OK. I’ll take your advice and take a break. See you soon.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2005
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Chavez Cleans Up
Albuquerque Mayor Martin Chavez ceded no territory to his overwhelmed foes last night as he marched virtually unopposed through the city and laid claim to a historic third, four year term. It was a victory unprecedented in its scope, featuring geographic and demographic dominance that politicians dream of but rarely realize. Chavez also ended a 30 year curse and became the first mayor to win two terms in a row. The only opposition was a record low turnout that thwarted the 53 year old city native's drive for an unquestionable mandate. (Complete election results here)

The numbers tell the story. Chavez--47.28%, Eric Griego--25.96%, City Councilor Brad Winter, the sole R in the race, 24.61% and David Steele 2.14%.

The carnage began early. The first results coming to us at KANW 89.1 FM from Winter's district told the tale. Chavez narrowly won boxes that were essential for Winter. After that, it was academic. How much over the magic re-elect number of 40% would he go? As it turned out, more than any other mayor in city history, surpassing David Rusk's 1977 record landslide of 46%.

The NE Heights fired the opening round. Then came the head shot. The mayor's Westside strongholds gave him landslide wins of 60% plus. For Griego and Winter, there was no place to run, no place to hide. Victory was complete and total. Defeat was utter.

"It was quite stunning," said pollster Brian Sandeorff as we performed a late night political autopsy." Marty tied Winter with the Republicans, each of them getting 46%, and Chavez won the Democrats vote with 46% to Griego's 41%. And then the Independents tipped heavily to the mayor. The final Sanderoff poll in the ABQ Journal had Chavez with 42.6% but the low turnout, about 31% of the 281,000 registered voters, or about 87,000, pushed the mayor to the 47% mark. "His supporters were turned out and theirs were not," Sanderoff recapped.

The proposal to hike the minimum wage did nothing for Griego who hitched his wagon to the controversial measure. The proposition died in a tight fight--51% to 49%. How many times have we heard that this is the election where the young people will come out? Save it for the next election.

A BITTERSWEET MAYOR

Despite the magnitude of his victory, the mayor was still feeling wounded by the harsh attacks of the campaign when he took to our air. "They ran the most negative campaign against me in city history. It was wrong and disgusting," glowered Chavez, flashing his famous temper even as the returns acted as a salve on his open wounds. He grudgingly praised Griego for his second place finish, but soon returned to the slash and burn campaign run by the R's and named Bernalillo County GOP Chairman Ken Zangara and GOP Republican National Committee consultant Jay McCleskey as the chief offenders.

It wasn't so much the attacks in the mail and on the air that caused Marty to turn caustic," offered lobbyist Scott Scanland. "The stuff they threw at him in the whispering circles was vicious, accusing him of all kinds of awful personal behavior. That is not stuff you soon forget."

Maybe some friendly faces on the city council will help. West Side Dem Miguel Gomez was defeated by onetime Mayor Marty campaign treasurer and former Bernalillo County Commissioner Ken Sanchez. Two Chavez friendly faces, incumbent Tina Cummins and fellow R Don Harris, will face each other in a run-off November 15th in District nine in the far NE Heights as neither of them won 40% of the vote. And Chavez favorite, R Sally Mayer, easily won re-election to her council seat. My experts say this means Chavez scored a net pickup of one vote on the nine member council.

But the election was clearly a referendum on the mayor and nothing less. "Most people think the city has been run pretty well and were not motivated to vote by the opposition campaigns," explained Scanland.

ABQ GOP State Rep. Larry Larranaga was the first R to try to make the peace with the mayor, saying "campaigns get rough and some people step out of line." Chavez replied that it was a "sliver" of the Republican party he was enraged at and asked Larry to help call off the dogs.

WHAT'S NEXT, MAYOR?

After eight years in the job, I asked Chavez if he still had ideas for the future. "I have a lot of them, including light rail for this city. I also really want to establish a better relationship with the school system." He replied.

But for the moment he was relishing the personal vindication that came with this victory. Veteran political observer Steve Cabiedes, joining in a late night radio roundtable, reminded everyone that just two years ago Chavez was left for dead as the ABQPAC fundraising scandal engulfed him and that was followed by the mayor's defeat in 2003 when an important road bond went down.

The churlish and childish tone of the negative campaign run against the mayor may have had him picking up Republican voters that otherwise would have gone to Winter. "It was something like that old saying, 'He may be a bum, but he's our bum,' laughed one veteran R.

WINNERS AND LOSERS
GOP Chair Weh
It was a bummer night for the aforementioned consultant Jay McCleskey who two years ago ran a slash and burn city council campaign on behalf of the Chamber of Commerce. They all went up in flames. Last night Winter, a moderate, decent and well-liked man, also went Zozobra as the flames he threw were blown back on him. It was also a night of retreat for state GOP Chair Allen Weh who persuaded Winter to get in the race late, but could not come up with proper funding, nor guide the campaign to a more moderate strategy that might have forced a run-off.

Soltari, the liberal consulting group, was another casualty of the mayoral juggernaut. Their mayoral contender, Griego, was crushed as was Marianne Dickinson, thought to be a bright light for the liberals but never got out of the gate against Councilor Mayer. Isaac Benton was the only Soltari candidate to win, beating Diana Dorn-Jones but that was in the most liberal district in the city. And then there was the increase in the minimum wage that was defeated. Soltari hoped to boost turnout for it which would help Eric, but it too died.

The Governor can lay claim to a win and more stroke with city hall as he openly and unabashedly embraced Chavez for another term. City Councilor Michael Cadigan, who scored an impressive 70% re-elect victory, is also a winner, now positioned as the key swing vote on the council. New police chief Ray Schultz wins as he gets to keep his job.

CRYSTAL BALL CHAMPS

Who were the best predictors for Election 05'? Kurt Lohbeck, playing first base for my All-Star Mayoral Team, was closest, predicting that Chavez would get a minimum of 46%. Scott Scanland said the mayor's race would be put to bed early but the minimum wage battle would be to close to call, and that was a great call. But it was ABQ GOP State Rep Greg Payne, predicting off-the-record, who gets the prize. He foresaw Chavez finishing at 47%, Sally Mayer winning her council seat without a run-off and said Tina Cummins would face a run-off. He only erred on the minimum wage battle.

Good job Greg. You get to buy the whole team lunch.

BOTTOM LINES

Not all the polls got it right. Sanderoff's exit poll on the minimum wage had him making an early call in its favor on KOAT-TV only to reverse it later on. He said the reason was "social stigma."

"We think a lot of people were embarrassed to admit they were voting against it. It doesn't happen often, but it does happen on personal questions. Apparently some voters thought this a personal issue and did not tell our exit pollsters the truth on how they had voted." He explained. Still, there was ribbing over the misstep at competitor KRQE-TV where they e-mailed that they would "rather be right than first."

City Councilor Martin Heinrich, who authored the failed wage measure, took hits last night for allowing the "workplace access" issue to become part of the bill which in the end killed it. Heinrich is weighing a run for the Dem nomination for Land Commissioner.

Thanks to everyone who helped with the radio broadcast last night. And to all our sponsors. We signed off at 11:30 p.m. and now its close to 3 a.m. so I'm going to call it a night and a morning here. Thanks for stopping by.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2005
Not for reproduction without permission of the author

(Michael A. Stecker)
Pre-election jitters spread across the Duke City late Monday as campaign workers and candidates felt that familiar out-of-control feeling that descends on them as the mystery of democracy is set to unfold. It is now the people who will decide, not the polls, pundits or media manipulators. The polls be damned. As in years past, I heard voices crack with fear as the hour of judgement neared. "What do you hear?" was the question heard frequently and urgently. Politicos thirsted for even a tidbit of information as they tried to retain control of events, at least in their own minds. But it was not to be. As the day wore on the retreat had begun, the phones grew silent and the long, lonely wait could not be avoided.

Today will be a day that will change lives forever. For most, it will be disappointing because there is only room for a handful of winners. Losing before the entire state is the price they pay for a shot at the power and glory only available by stepping forth into the harsh limelight that brightens the ancient stage of La Politica. Good luck to all the candidates.

Election Night starts on KANW 89.1 FM at 6:30 tonight with yours truly anchoring events as they unfold. I'll have the able assistance of top NM lobbyist Scott Scanland, veteran GOP State Rep. Larry Larranaga and Dems Lenton Malry and Terry Brunner. Green Steve Cabiedes mans the early vote desk. Bernalillo County Clerk Mary Herrera will be our Government Center reporter and Kevin Otero is our producer. We are all set for year 18 of our KANW election coverage, but it won't be complete without you, so please stop by.

VIGIL LAWYER BENCHED
Chairman Cervantes
Pre-impeachment skirmishing has started. The attorney for indicted State Treasurer Robert Vigil, Sam Bregman, has apparently been lobbying lawmakers to thwart the impeachment drive that will begin at the special Legislative session later this week. Bregman, himself a politician who served a term on the ABQ city council and has run for other elective office, has rankled the chairman of the House Judiciary Committee, Joseph Cervantes of Las Cruces. It is in his committee where articles of impeachment will begin their journey and Cervantes is making it clear to Bregman that he is not about to preside over a tainted process. Here's an e-mail circulating from Cervantes to Bregman in response to Bregman's political activity.

"I have received your e-mail letter, and have also been asked about calls made by you to several colleagues in the New Mexico House of Representatives.

In the event impeachment legislation is introduced, both House and Senate legislators may be acting in a quasi-judicial capacity. Any bias or pre-judgment may taint or disqualify a Legislator's vote whether for or against any impeachment.

I consider calls and letters to legislators inappropriate ex parte communications with those potentially serving in a quasi-judicial constitutional role. Ex parte contacts represent an extraordinary breach of procedure and process. Most of my colleagues are not attorneys, however, and may not understand the implications of taking your calls or receiving your letters. Non-lawyers may not understand that pre-judgment or bias may disqualify them from voting on any impeachment issue.

"I..ask that you give more thought to the judicial role of House members in any impeachment proceeding. Please do not send me any more e-mail, or attempt to contact me by phone, to argue Mr. Vigil's case. I intend to approach any impeachment with the same impartially I would expect from a potential judge in my legal cases." Wrote Cervantes in an e-mail making the rounds among legislators.

Lawmakers can get very protective when taking up the most rarely used impeachment power. It is a somber responsibility reserved exclusively for those elected directly by the people. Lobbyists, lawyers and others not part of the club need not apply.

The responsibility is particularly grave for Chairman Cervantes and other House leaders because this will be the first time in state history that an impeachment will be seriously undertaken and will stand as precedent for generations to come. Cervantes seems to understand the expectations placed upon him by the constitution and the New Mexicans of today and those to follow. And now, so does Mr. Bregman.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2005
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There won't be shock, but there will be surprise if ABQ Mayor Martin Chavez fails to get 40% of the vote tomorrow night. That's the consensus of my All-Star Mayoral Team, analysts and observers with decades of experience in New Mexican politics and not about to pull any punches with their reputations on the line. Forty per cent means no run-off election and another four years. Let's go out to the playing field for the very latest this Election Eve.

KURT LOHBECK--FIRST BASE

Kurt has thought from the beginning that Mayor Marty was going to take it without a run-off, and he is now putting some numbers on his prediction. "Chavez will get closer to 50% than 40% tomorrow night," the former CBS newsman and longtime NM politico predicted. He said 46% is his number for the mayor. And he also predicted there would a be a run-off in his home city council race in which Republican incumbent Sally Mayer faces three challengers. He also said look for a run-off in the Tina Cummins district in the far ABQ NE Heights and a near "dead-heat' on the proposal to raise the minimum wage.

BRIAN SANDEROFF--SECOND BASE

Sanderoff is the conservative player, not one to take anything off the table unless his polls show something clearly outside the margin of error. His Sunday Journal survey has Marty at 42.6% and Sanderoff is expecting the mayor to get the job done. The unknown is turnout. "If a bunch of people came out to vote for the minimum wage, people we don't normally poll, than Marty could find some trouble." Otherwise, it's four more years, said the pollster as he made the media rounds as the sun sank on a New Mexico Saturday.

MIKE SANTULLO--THIRD BASE

This Chavez supporter, fearful for his candidate when the first poll had him right at the 40% mark, is now off the fence and comfortably predicting a mayoral win and no run-off. "My number for Marty is 41.6%," said Santullo who was finishing a radio gig at Balloon Fiesta Park. The political veteran also said the negative campaign run against the mayor was "too little too late. It did some damage but not enough," he analyzed.

HARRY PAVLIDES--CENTER FIELD

The Democratic consultant and pollster also predicts Chavez will get 41.6% of the vote (come on guys, can you be more specific!). He says if turnout goes higher than his prediction of 94,000 to 97,000 voters the mayor's percentage would go down. But if turnout goes lower the Chavez number will go higher. "His base is coming out and it will be amplified in a low turnout atmosphere." Pavlides asserted.

He also predicted Isaac Benton would win the Downtown/Barelas city council seat over Diana Dorn-Jones. "I did polling for the Benton campaign and I think his low number is 52%." Anything else? "Yes," said the chain-smoking, 35 year political veteran. "The minimum wage hike is going to pass. It is seen as a positive thing for the city." And he added one other thing. "I am predicting that Eric Griego will take second place (28% to 30%) in the mayor's race and Brad Winter a close third (24 to 25%)," concluded Pavlides as he put away his crystal ball.

TIM McGIVERN--LEFT FIELD

Tim, former news editor of the weekly Alibi, wasted no time painting the political picture.

"Marty's campaign should be feeling very optimistic about his chances of avoiding a runoff, but obviously, with the margin of error in Sanderoff's poll (+ or-4.4%), it's still too close to call. The Chavez strategy of attracting Republicans to his Democratic base from four years ago was both wise and effective, considering he's held onto his lead by simultaneously beating back a liberal Dem and moderate Republican.

Winter's support from his own party was both lackluster and inept, and now it looks like plenty of R's will break Marty's way Tuesday. If that happens the GOP leaders should bow their heads in shame (or resign). So despite his ethical transgressions, it appears Chavez has sunk the competition," Tim said.

SCOTT SCANLAND--PITCHER

The top New Mexico lobbyist and mayor supporter says victory is in sight. "Marty should get over the magic 40% number and the big race of the night will be over quickly. Marty has run the type of campaign he needed to--he kept a low profile (for his style) and reminded people why they should feel good voting for him. He got beyond a divorce and supposed scandals. Case closed."

Scanland also predicted R Sally Mayer will be the top vote-getter in her race for re-election against two other R's and Dem Marianne Dickinson, but that a run-off could be in store as she might not hit 40%. Scott thinks Sally would prevail over Marianne in a run-off. I'm not as sanguine. Sally has been no slouch in this campaign, but Dickinson is one of the highest-quality candidates I have seen in years. This is one to watch.

TERRY BRUNNER--CATCHER

The top staffer for Dem U.S. Senator Jeff Bingaman put it this way: "The Mayor's numbers are good. While he hasn't absolutely secured the 40% he needs, he is likely there. The incumbent is going to get at least 2 to 4% of these undecided voters which should put him over the top. The Mayor can't let up though and has to have a good turnout effort.

Griego has to hope that the living wage initiative will bring unlikely voters to the polls. I'm not sure what Brad Winter can do at this point. He is polling well below where he should be with Republicans. He has to hope and pray that council races in the NE Heights turn out Republican voters.

I believe the (Tina) Cummins and the Mayer races will go to a run off, but there are so many candidates that it's tough to say who will make it," offered the knowledgable representative of the thirtysomething generation.

JIM BACA--RIGHT FIELD

Yeah, let's put the ex-leftie ABQ mayor out in right field. He says unless there is a big surge in turnout because of the minimum wage measure and those voters also go for Griego, this cake is baked and Marty wins. If so, what does that mean?

"I think the campaigns were feeble. They could not raise any money. If he wins, it says he raised a lot of money and the voters are not dissatisfied with his performance and willing to put his ethical lapses aside," commented Baca, a leading edge baby boomer who just turned 60.

Thanks to all of my Mayoral All-Stars (minus the shortstop). Excellent job. My take on the mayor’s race was blogged here Sunday. Just scroll down the page.

RADIO SPECIAL TODAY AT 5 P.M.

There's more Campaign 05' on the radio today at 5 p.m. Join me and my experts for a full one hour of city politics on KANW 89.1 FM. Then join us again tomorrow night for our 18th year of covering every major election on KANW. Election Night coverage Tuesday starts at 6:30. Thanks to all our sponsors. Please click on their ads on today's blog. See you this afternoon at 5 p.m.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2005
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ABQ Mayor Chavez
There are probably a number of people you work with who bug you. Guys or gals who just rub you the wrong way. Maybe they're a little too pushy, too aggressive, too in your face. Or they seem to know more than you and aren't shy about letting you know it. But is that grounds for firing them? No. And that's where the 2005 race for Albuquerque mayor stands in its final 48 hours.

53 year old Martin Chavez is poised for an unprecedented third term (the first to win two in a row) as mayor of the state's largest city not because of his personality, but because of his policies. Try as they might, his foes efforts to personalize this race--think "Smarty Marty" commercials, have been a failure by any definition.

The final ABQ Journal poll released today shows Chavez garnering 42.6% of the vote, up from 40% in the first poll last month and securely over the 40% required to avoid a run-off. Second place is a tie with City Councilors Eric Griego and Brad Winter each coming in with 18.8% and unknown David Steele at 2.6%. Undecided is a high 17.6%. Margin of error is plus or minus 4.4%. The poll was conducted Thursday and Friday.

It's possible, but unlikely, that the Mayor Marty train could be derailed at the last minute. The electorate has heard it all; the Chavez ethics problems, the Chavez arrogance, the Chavez personal problems, and they are not buying. What they are shopping for is demonstrated competence in running a city and its 6,000 employees. Only one candidate has run a campaign addressing that critcial issue and he is far in the lead.

CHAMPAGNE ON ICE

Chavez also remains above 40% because his personality has been indicted, not the job he is doing or the policies he is pursuing. And that's what matters. You have to show you can do a better job than the other guy. That's not easy going up against Mayor Marty. After all, by this stage in his career he is more than capable of administering the office of mayor, In fact, he is behind schedule in a political career that many expect more from.

Not that the opponents haven't had their moments. But who really saw them? Griego did his best to get a limited broadcast TV buy up, but Republican Winter flailed away with attack radio commercials, hardly the way to capture the imagination of the masses.

Journal pollster Brian Sanderoff told me late Saturday night that Marty is pulling well over over 40% of the GOP vote, way too high for a Dem and the reason he is likely to prevail Tuesday night.

Like successful politicians through the ages, Mayor Marty has been blessed by weak opponents. Don't pop the champagne yet Mayor, but do put it on ice.

SUNDAY BOTTOM LINES

The Journal poll also shows all three propositions, including the one that would raise the minimum wage to $7.50 an hour, likely to win voter approval. That also includes the public financing of city election campaigns. Sanderoff said the recent state Treasurer scandal appears to be moving voters toward that measure.

I am back here tomorrow with you and my 2005 all-star Mayor team and their take on the mayor and council races. And don't forget Monday at 5 p.m, as we continue our election coverage with a pre-game show on KANW 89.1 FM radio. And then, starting at 6:30 p.m. Election Night, we kick-off year 18 of covering every major New Mexico and Albuquerque election for KANW. It's heard throughout much of the state, so be sure to join us for exclusive early results and he best analysis.

Thanks to all of our public radio sponsors---BWD Global and Bruce Donisthorpe, DW Turner (strategic communications), Ladera Golf and the Bill Campbell Agency (Real Estate). Some of their logos are at the top of this page so click on them for more info.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2005
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