Any sitting governor would be pretty pleased to get an approval rating of 53% as Big Bill did in the ABQ Journal poll conducted Oct. 13-16, (MOE + or -4.9%) and released Wednesday. But this isn't any governor. This is perhaps the most powerful one in state history; one with international stature who dominates the news. This is a governor who would be President. So when a poll shows 53% and not 63%, the natives get restless and opinions pour forth like the Spring runoff in the mighty Rio Grande.

It’s never easy analyzing polls, as much art as science, and it was doubly difficult this time because of who was polled. "Registered," not "likely" voters, made up the survey of 400 who gave the Guv 53% approval, 24% disapproval and 23% who said they were undecided or had "mixed feelings."

My first take on the poll yesterday was that the Governor was "leaking oil.” And he is compared with the low 60’s approval ratings he was getting. Now, is he leaking oil in the sense that the wheels are about to come off? Not very likely. But he has run up against the reality of New Mexico. There are plenty of Republicans and conservative southern Democrats who will keep any Democratic Guv in check.

Chiming in from his Fourth Floor Roundhouse office, Big Bill Chief of Staff Dave Contarino opined as the late afternoon sun set on the Sangre De Cristo Mountains. “You can put Donald Duck on the ballot against a Dem governor here and he would get 39%," half-chuckled the Guv's right hand man.

Still, the 53%, compared to the 63% he scored among registered voters two years ago, got the Republican blood pumping in ABQ State Rep. Greg Payne. "He is vulnerable. Is he in danger of losing the election next year? Probably not. But if the R's could get their act together they could make the race much closer than expected. Payne added: “The person with the biggest smile on their face is Hilary Clinton," a probable opponent of Big Bill's if, as expected, he seeks the Dem Prez nod in 2008.

PAVLIDES-PAYNE FACE-OFF

Despite being a longtime Big Bill backer, veteran pollster Harry Pavlides said he agreed that the Governor has been leaking oil "but it is normal leakage for a governor in the third year of a four year term.”

“He can get his numbers back to the high 50's with the campaign he is going to run and by slowing down and not repeating the kind of mistake he did by getting that jet plane."

Pavlides’ educated guess on where the Guv stands with likely voters is 55% to 57%. "Joe, there is an unusually large number of undecided when you do a poll with just registered voters. Likely voters are more involved and more decided. Bill’s support will go up with them as will his disapproval rating." He explained.

But Payne was still spinning the other way. "The plane hurt but so has his focus on international and national issues as he positions for a White House run. This is a poor state. He needs to show more focus on issues here. Voters are starting to see him as disconnected from here and its hurting," claimed Payne as he set the table for the 06’ campaign.

Back on the Fourth Floor, Contarino tried another tack. "When people are asked if New Mexico is going in the right or wrong direction, they overwhelmingly say the right direction. That number is just as important as the approval rating,” he asserted.

Both Contarino and Payne disagreed with me that the Treasurer scandal may have had a role in the gubernatorial dip with Contarino maintaining there has been no dip because the poll make-up is not of likely voters. Besides, he spun, “the Governor showed strong leadership skills in handling the matter.“

MY TAKE

Big Bill is a victim of his initial popularity and his larger than life personality. If he doesn't perform above average, he is faulted. Republicans have an interest in keeping the expectations high; that he should, as Payne put it, “poll approval of at least 60% everytime." If he fails the higher hurdle, they can claim weakness. And If he fails to meet the higher expectations next year the R’s will use it to dampen his national ambitions.

Still, there is danger lurking in the poll. The novelty of a governor running for President can wear thin when the stats keep coming in showing the state in the cellar. He was elected with high hopes and if voters see him straying, they can be quick to pull him back in. It's a balancing act that will keep Big Bill and his political advisers plenty occupied over the next year.

MOVERS AND SHAKERS

Word comes to us that Vanessa Alarid, the executive director of the NM Democratic Party will soon be leaving her post to return to school. Alarid has been at the center of a controversy that has swirled around state Party Chair John Wertheim this week. The New Mexican's Steve Terrell explores the Alarid angle more .....And from ABQ's City Hall comes word that Chief Administrative Officer James B. Lewis will soon retire. Lewis was mentioned a possible Treasurer replacement for federally-indicted Robert Vigil, but he did not make the finalist list...Republican Barry Bitzer has been named chief of staff for ABQ Mayor Marty Chavez. The job has been vacant since Chavez fundraiser Terri Baird left the post.

You know it's true. You write the blog. Send me your news tips and comments and keep the politics flowing.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2005
Not for reproduction without permission of the author

Passions ran high Tuesday as Dems reacted to news reported here that former NM Transportation Secretary Judy Espinosa might, just might, consider challenging NM Dem Party Chair John Wertheim for his title. Never mind that Espinosa was only toying with the idea. It was enough to unlock the floodgates of emotion and the e-mail, some of it hot enough to scorch my eyebrows. But hey, that's why we're here, to bring you, without partisanship, the real workings of NM politics. It was a GOP intraparty fight that launched yer little ol' blog over two years ago. My ass was kicked red, but we got it right then and, dang it, we're going to get it right now. Not that this situation is similar, not by a long shot

First, about that Gang of 16, those who signed the now famous (or infamous) letter calling into question Wertheim's leadership. Several of them, led by Babara Wold, were hitting the ceiling saying that it was implied here that they were calling for the chair's removal. They emphatically said they were not. "We're not against or for Judy for Chair. It just never came up and our efforts weren't aimed at making it so. Who knows if there will be a challenge or not," clarified Barbara, after also labeling the blog "rambling and ill-informed." Hey, I've been called worse, but I feel sorry for the blog.

Also, not all the criticisms leveled against Wertheim--the court challenge he brought against Prez contender Ralph Nader and his support of tax cuts--were in the letter, but they are concerns expressed by other Dems.

WHIPPING ON WERTHEIM

Others continued whipping Wertheim saying they think a coup attempt is worthwhile. So while the Gang of 16 can speak for itself, remember there were over 100 central committee members who voted against John in April and thousands of "progressives" across the state who also have opinions.

Surely, an attempt to unseat Wertheim is highly unlikely. A close friend of Judy wanted to make clear that she is not anywhere close to launching such an effort.

"She has kicked the idea around and is exploring the possibility. She has heard the rumors and grumbling from dissatisfied members of the state central committee and county chairs, which made her contemplate the idea in the first place. But, I would not consider her quite as "serious" as your blog makes out. Exploring the option is more like it," penned the prominent Lady D who has seen her share of intraparty wars.

Speaking of which, a challenge, if it developed, would not be a rarity, as we were reminded from a party Alligator of long standing who also analyzed any prospective Movida against Wertheim:

"There are always rumblings in the party about removing the chair, be it Earl Potter, Ray Sena, Mary Gail Gwaltney or Diane Denish.

"We shouldn’t exaggerate the rumblings of progressives out of Santa Fe, Las Cruces, and ABQ. John’s strength is with the rural chairs and the Hispanic ward chairs in ABQ and Santa Fe. Also, party leaders such aw Madrid, Richardson, Denish and Udall, all want John in there. Throwing the party over to Judy would be a big mistake. She couldn’t even organize a petition drive to get herself on the ballot in the ABQ Mayor’s race," analyzed our insider.

WHAT IT MEANS

Naturally, Dem heavies running for election next year do not want anything to change. Turmoil over party leadership makes for controversy, and the heavies can probably keep any seeds of rebellion from sprouting. But the fervor over the direction of the Dem party won't be stilled.

Tax cuts for the well-off are controversial among many party members. So is The tepid critique, or lack thereof, of the Iraq war. And, don't forget, New Mexico is now a Red state after the narrow 04' Bush victory. These are matters of import that can only be suppressed for so long.

Meanwhile, other Dem insiders were checking in with the news that NAtional Dem Chairman Howard Dean, who embodies the fissures present in the national D's, will not make it to the November Dem Central Committee meeting after all. Chair Wertheim was saying Tuesday the trip was on and would enrich party coffers. D.C. Dems were saying travel arrangements could not be made.

Hmmm. Dean not coming while some Dems make their unhappiness with the party chair known? OK. Let the conspiracy theories begin!

BIG BILL: LEAKING OIL

The ABQ Journal poll out today has Big Bill leaking oil, garnering a 53% approval rating, pretty low for him. I will seek comments and analysis for you. My first impression is that the Treasurer Vigil scandal is at least partially to blame for the dip. Stay tuned.


Thanks to all my e-mailers for their thoughts, criticisms and news. If you have some, there's a link at the top of the page.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2005
Not for reproduction without permission of the author

Dem Chair Wertheim
While you were out trick or treating last night and enjoying that last kernel of corn candy, politicos who stir their brews on the left wing of the NM Democratic Party were conjuring up some tricks of their own. For party chairman John Wertheim, the central target of this coven, Halloween 2005 was a scary night indeed.

Over the weekend 16 of the 350 members of the Dem Central Committee sent out their formal letter of complaint about Wertheim to the blogs, the papers and fellow committee members. But they saved their biggest trick for the spookiest night of the year, circulating word that Judy Espinosa, former NM Transportation Secretary and recent candidate for ABQ Mayor, just might work up a challenge to take over John's job.

What seems like an out-of-the blue move has been months in the making with Wertheim being blasted for a wide array of alleged sins including: not putting out an understandable budget, wasting party money by unsuccessfully challenging independent Prez candidate Ralph Nader's petitions to get on the NM ballot; by hiring a consulting firm for 30 grand that did not perform; and by not using his stroke to raise enough money for the party. All this on the heels of several staff dismissals at party headquarters that has the Alligators marching in Wertheim's direction at mach speed.

In light of all this, I canceled my Halloween plans which consisted of donning a Big Bill mask and scaring the hell out of the neighbors' kids by telling them I was running for President. Instead, I dialed up Chairman Wertheim who was on a final fitting of his scary Bush mask while his wife and Big Bill staffer, Bianca, was putting the finishing touches on her Heather Wilson get-up. They were headed out the door to pick up Robert Vigil and Sam Bregman when the phone rang and...

THE INTERVIEW
Judy Espinosa
Despite the flurry of charges, Wertheim was in a conciliatory mood saying the complaints did not pose a threat to either him or the party; that he is working to provide more "transparency" in party budgets; that the consulting firm the lefties are complaining about actually did a good job and that under his stewardship the Dems have raised more money than ever.

But that wasn't stopping the insiders from telling me that Espinosa is serious about a challenge; that she is seeking to meet with Big Bill and Light Guv Denish to outline her concerns and perhaps seek support for a long-shot chairmanship of her own.

"Judy is serious. We are unhappy with the direction of the party and think she could put it on track," informed one of her acolytes. Any challenge would wait until next year, reported another Alligator pushing a Judy move. Appropriately, Judy was staying as invisible as a ghost.

But ousting Wertheim would be easier said than done. He won a two year term in April with 60% of the central committee votes. It would take a special meting and, he says, a two-thirds vote to remove him. But he is anything but tone deaf and said he has been talking with the disgruntled letter signers to address concerns that he sees as valid.

"Most of this is insider stuff. But I do take seriously the complaint about the Nader challenge. That was a judgment call but I stand by it. Even though we lost in court, we kept his vote totals down," explained John who also said the challenge cost in the vicinity of 50 grand.

THE REAL ISSUE

Wertheim agreed that the larger issue is the fissure in the party over such issues as tax cuts. "I supported the Governor's tax cuts and I took heat for it as he did. Some Democrats think I am too conservative. But this is nothing like the Republican infighting that has cost them dearly. This is more like a family discussion."

Wertheim said the Dems are positioned well for 2006, with the GOP on the ropes nationally and not doing very well recruiting candidates locally. He also said his relationship with the governor "is good."

"We are working hard to involve everyone in the party. Perhaps I have been a bit isolated in that I have been in politics a long time. Sometimes you lose sight of what it looks like from the outside," observed the chairman in his cellphone mea culpa. But, he noted, his detractors have surfaced after several party staffers lost their jobs.

MY BOTTOM LINES

The next meeting of the Central Committee is in Santa Fe November 19th and national Dem Chair Howard Dean, leader of the liberals and patron saint of the Wertheim complainers, is scheduled to attend. Wertheim is looking forward to having Dean there so he can fill the party coffers with fundraising cash and answer those who claim Dem cash raising has been anemic.

As for where the dough goes, Wertheim, a NM native and Yale graduate who has made two runs for the U.S. House, said campaign finance laws have become 'exceptionally complex,' but much of the information is available for viewing on the Federal Election Commission Web site and at the Secretary of State's office.

This Democratic Party brush fire may have been ignited by arcane rules and obscure issues, but it served to unmask the deeper issues facing the D's on All Hallows Eve: Whether the Dems need to push a bolder, more distinguished message as the campaign tricks of 06' get underway.

Remember to E-mail me your news and comments so we can keep the politics coming. Back tomorrow. Same time, same station.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2005
Not for reproduction without permission of the author

If money alone could solve the deep-seated social and cultural problems that put New Mexico at or near the bottom of just about every possible national ranking, surely we should be close to climbing out of the cellar. The stunning, no, the shocking, amounts of money flowing into state coffers from the oil and gas price explosion and the resulting royalties are enough to satisfy the wish list of even the most big spending liberal and the tax cutting dreams of even the most ardent Republican.

The surplus for the budget year starting next July is now put at nearly $700 million. But budget insiders tell me it is very possible it could actually be closer to $1 billion! That's on top of the current fiscal year surplus of over $800 million! Is this finally the answer to our generations old problems of child poverty, child abuse, poor education, low-wage jobs, domestic violence, sky high drug addiction and drunkenness and low worker productivity that has saddled us with our ignominious reputation? The optimists say it could be. The pessimists say the politicos don't know where to begin.

"A lot of this money should be returned to taxpayers, but say you returned a third. That could still leave you $700 million and even more if energy prices stay high in 06'. The potential to do great things is there," said one state government veteran.

Others say government programs as presently constituted are simply not adequate to handle additional inflows of money and if given it, it will go down to the drain and leave us right where we started.

"The problem in New Mexico is that there are so many people desperate for jobs, that government programs often become jobs programs, not problem solving agencies," analyzed an insider.

Big Bill has given tax cuts to the well-off that have placated the R's. Now, he has resources available to tackle problems that other governors can only dream of. Can he and does he want to father big ideas? If so, can he execute them with accountability the GOP will rightfully demand? Or will other ambitions prevail on him? Can these unfathomable surpluses be the stepping stone for a future where New Mexicans will look back with nostalgia at the pathetic social conditions that haunted their ancestors?

Is this New Mexico's last, best chance?

TREADING ON THE TREASURER?
Co-Chair Rael
Big Bill appointed another of those big, unwieldy committees to preside over a brief search for a new state treasurer who he will appoint to fill out the term of federally-indicted Robert Vigil who resigned last week. The committee will be co-chaired by Kim Sanchez Rael, a member of the State Board of Finance and wife of ABQ politico and veteran bureaucrat Lawrence Rael. He also said the panel should decide if it is best that the new Treasurer not seek election to a four year term next year. But who elected the panel to make that decision? Asked one politico protective of power not already in the Guv's hands.

"Whether the next Treasurer runs for the position or not should be of no concern to the Governor or his panel. In fact, a Treasurer who agrees not to run could be seen as less accountable to the people. The Governor needs to get a qualified replacement and stop worrying about the politics. It is not his place to set conditions, voluntary or otherwise, on the Treasurer's political plans. It is an elected position and this scandal has not changed that," declared a Santa Fe wall-leaner.

APPOINT THE TREASURER?

Interestingly, Big Bill has backed off his earlier plan to push legislation to have the Treasurer appointed rather than elected. It's probably a non-starter. It would place more power with the governor in an era when the chief executive's muscle is larger than ever because of his ability to focus the public on his agenda via the media. Also, Hispanics could be the deciding factor. Since statehood, they have been protective of the right to elect statewide officials.

Big Bill does have a legislative package that will provide for succession at the office and also some anti-corruption measures that are long overdue. Former Attorney General Paul Bardacke has floated the idea of paying the Treasurer more for overseeing billions of dollars. He currently makes $85,000. Would paying say $150,000 a year attract a better quality candidate? It may be worth a try.

SPEECH IMPEDIMENTS

Here's one circulating on the Net that even though it pokes fun at our sometimes speech-impaired Prez could apply to a lot of our politicos, including the D's. Enjoy the video.

E-mail me your news and comments and keep the politics coming. There's link at the top of the page.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2005
Not for reproduction without permission of the author