Big Bill's latest TV ads try to separate him from the pack with a humorous pitch, but they don't jump off the screen at you like the funny spot he aired for his Guv race last year in which he appeared dressed as a sheriff, bellies up the bar and orders a glass of milk. His campaign says these new spots, in which he is seen applying for a job with a skeptical interviewer, is an effort to "make light of the political establishment's view of the Governor's campaign."

Funny and effective? Or too clever by half? Opinion will probably be split, but Richardson is not going to hurt himself with these ads. He hovers at around 5% in key Iowa. His worst enemy now is not the size of his campaign treasury--although that could use some bolstering--it is his own impatience. We saw what anxiety can do to him in the last Dem prez debate.

It is Big Bill's talent at one-to-one campaigning that keeps him a threat, albeit a long shot one, to the rest of the field. With TV ads giving him needed name ID, the Governor needs to meet as many people personally to nail down the vote. Richardson with a big TV buy could be potent. Combined with a patient candidate committed to camping out in Iowa and New Hampshire, he could be dangerous.

MORE TUBE TALK

Here's another TV ad using humor--of the dark variety-- but it seems to hit its target-- Republican members of Congress who have run into ethical or legal trouble. New Mexico's own Heather Wilson makes an appearance in the piece from the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee for her role in the US attorney scandal. The ad is a take-off on the hit show "Law and Order," complete with soundtrack.

WHERE IS HE?

Are you addicted to Big Bill news? Do you lose sleep if you don't know where he's going to be next? Well, for those deeply concerned and the rest of us, here is the place to track the Guv's daily Prez schedule (and that of the other candidates) and how often he is visiting each early primary state. (He's on the Tonight Show with Jay Leno Friday night) Now get some sleep.

Also in TV related news, Gerges Scott, executive producer of news at ABQ's KRQE-TV, says the "daily grind" is the reason he is leaving the station at the end of the month. The CBS affiliate has gone from #3 to #1 in the 10 p.m. news ratings in recent years. Gerges is a political junkie who formerly served as spokesman for the state corrections department.

SIC 'EM BRAD
Councilor Winter
Not everyone thinks it "would be good for the city" if ABQ Mayor Marty Chavez and City Councilor Brad Winter were to "bury the hatchet" as we opined in our May 3 blog. Several e-mails egged Winter on, saying his opposition to Chavez serves to keep the powerful mayor in check.

As one correspondent put it, if Winter didn't take on His Honor "there would be streetcars on Central, more (red light) cameras, higher fines, and administrative penalties for drinking Starbucks and driving."

No Starbucks while driving? Forget about the mayor going for that. He's an at least once-a-day user. So is rival, Light Guv Diane Denish.

Meantime, Winter says he has no plans to seek the mayor's job in 2009. He ran in '05 and was defeated by Chavez in a campaign that escalated the feud between the two.

Mention of that controversial plan, now in the deep freeze, to build an expensive street car on Central Avenue, steers us to the reasoning on why Mr. and Mrs., Albuquerque didn't have much use for it--they have a bus system they are spending good money on and to expand as necessary. Sometimes it is that simple.

GOP IRAQ CRACK

The crack in the GOP over the no-end-in-sight Iraq war we have been telling you is coming broke into the open Wednesday as it was revealed a group of "moderate House Republicans" met with Bush telling him if things don't get better R's are going to start peeling away. ABQ GOP Congresswoman Heather Wilson has been portrayed as a moderate, but she has not been one on Iraq despite nearly losing her seat over the issue last November. Will she eventually be one of the R's breaking over this war policy? The pressure is growing.

QUOTE OF THE DAY

"They do it because they believe in the Governor,'' says Big Bill Prez deputy campaign manger Amanda Cooper on why the Governor's cabinet has donated nearly $50,000 to his national campaign.

And we thought they did it because they believe in full employment.

SECOND QUOTE OF THE DAY

"Covering New Mexico politics is like going to graduate school in political science." So said John Foster, former news editor of Espanóla's Rio Grande Sun as he was named the new executive director of the Idaho Democratic Party.

Foster and his news crew did highly critical stories on Big Bill for the feisty paper, including one on the Guv's use of state planes. Foster is probably safe from any immediate Big Bill inquires. Idaho is not an early primary state.

Thanks to photog Mark Bralley for the shot of Brad Winter, and thanks to you for stopping by. Have political news or comments? Send them via the email link at the top of the page. Interested in advertising here? Just drop us a line.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2007
Not for reproduction without permission of the author

ABQ mayor and 2010 Dem Guv hopeful Marty Chavez scores high as a leader and for "getting things done," but is outdone in the "compassion and caring" department by rival and Lieutenant Governor Diane Denish. That's some of the insider info dribbling out from a March 22-25 conducted by Chavez who has formed a Guv exploratory committee while Denish has formally announced her entry.

Lady Di did a poll of her own earlier this year which showed her leading Marty by 18 points among Dem primary voters. Marty's head-to-head numbers against Denish show a much closer race (surprise!) and his intimates say the poll has encouraged him to stay in the race.

The mayor sent out a late April fund-raising letter in which he declares: "I need your vote, your help and your contribution to my Exploratory Committee, which I have formed with a clear eye toward the 2010 Governor's race."

He also includes a Web site to visit, but when you go there you get a notice that it is coming soon. In contrast, Denish has kept up her campaign site from last year, replete with details on her career.

One question that hovers over Chavez is whether voters have put a ceiling on his career, seeing him as a worthy mayor, but skeptical of placing him in higher office. His associates don't seem to think so. Only a campaign will answer the question

CITY ELECTION BEAT

Meantime, on the city election watch 34 year old Katherine Martinez, who is active in the mayor's ABQ Green initiative and is the government affairs director for the Central NM Homebuilders Association, has launched a campaign against City Council President Debbie O'Malley who has often clashed with His Honor over growth issues. Martinez also worked in government affairs for the ABQ Chamber of Commerce.

Martinez (Katherine Carroll), a Democrat like O'Malley, was born in North Carolina and moved to New Mexico eight years ago with her native New Mexican husband. She says she has lived in the ABQ North Valley district only two and a half years, but "it doesn't take long to get to know people."

Another councilor who has often been at odds with the mayor, Republican Brad Winter, also has an election rival. She is Paulette dé Pascal, 47, a New York native ("100 percent Italian") who has a PR background. She has worked for the movie industry, GOP politico Bob Schwartz and southern NM Congressional candidate Al Kissling. She told me she has lived in NM for 25 years and in the district four council seat she seeks for over a decade. "I want to help take the city to the next level," she said.

The campaigns of council candidates Martinez and dé Pascal are being consulted by Santa Fe's Victory Group which is also consulting Mayor Chavez's Guv bid.

Four of the nine council seats are up for election this year. Here's more on the campaign, including the latest candidates for the seat that Martin Heinrich is vacating to run for Congress.

WILSON WAR WATCH
Rep. Wilson
ABQ GOP Congresswoman Heather Wilson is out with her update on the latest developments in the US House on the no-end-in-sight Iraq war. She baits the hook, but doesn't go fishing: "

"Iraq must not become a safe haven for Al Qaeda and it must not become a source of instability in the region. We all have great dreams for the Iraqi people; but they are the ones who must build their dreams. We can support them, but we cannot do for the Iraqis what they will not do for themselves."

But if the Iraqis continue to "not do for themselves," when does policy change? She doesn't say. Wilson opposed the House approved measure setting deadlines for a troop withdrawal which was vetoed by the President. Some GOP lawmakers have been warning that the patience of the American people is not unlimited. Wilson does not echo that view, at least not in her newsletter.

She also goes out of her way to annoy the majority D's by calling them the "Democrat" party, instead of the "Democratic" party. This in a district that has some 35,000 more D's than R's. How does that move the ball forward?

LOUISIANA'S ENVY

Our fair New Mexico is not always last, but not everyone is happy about it. A Louisiana state representative, lamenting the fact that his state is the last to permit cockfighting after NM's Legislature passed a ban this year, says: "We shouldn't be the last state. We should have beat New Mexico last year."

The good news for Louisianans tired of the blood sport came last week from a Louisiana state house committee which approved a cockfighting ban that would take effect in December 2008.

Email your latest news and comments from the link at the top of the page and help keep the New Mexico politics coming.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2007
Not for reproduction without permission of the author

Nearing Gallup,NM
In our quest to bring you the latest La Politica from across our Enchanted Land, today we take you to ethnically diverse Gallup in western NM where a Senior Alligator gives us the lowdown on what is driving the politics of the city of 20,000.


"In Gallup, we have an “old guard’ that is an effective combination of longtime Hispanic and Italian activists that work on a classic patronage model. They have long-standing ties with Gallup’s liquor dealers. We also have a large progressive population created by the influx of educators, medical professionals, religious missionaries and assorted do-gooders. It’s a pretty even split, although on balance the old guard generally wins because politics is a blood sport to them...The in-town Navajos (Gallup is 34% Native, 33% Hispanic, 29% Anglo and 4% Other) could tip the balance toward the progressives, but Navajo's are under registered and politically inactive. Many maintain their voting registration out in the county at their Chapter of origin.

"...The Governor is able to pull off a task that is comparable to holding a ball of shifting mercury in the palm of his hand. He keeps progressives happy by promoting progressive public policy while at the same time keeping the old guard patronage politicians happy by the appointments and the administrative decisions he makes..."

Harry Mendoza, the former chairman of the McKinley County Commission, was elected as mayor of Gallup in a runoff election in March. And in case you didn't know, Gallup and McKinley county are longtime Democratic strongholds.

Have an update on your city's politics? Share it with us.

PAT'S PROBLEMS
Pat Lyons
NM Land Commissioner Pat Lyons has sometimes been mentioned as a possible 2010 GOP Guv nominee, but he isn't helping himself any in the way he has handled a Las Cruces land deal involving his office. After being accused of doing a sweetheart deal with a land developer, Lyons on Monday admitted he made a mistake in awarding the developer a deal before the published deadline for proposals to be submitted. He also claims not to know that the developer contributed a bunch of money to a political action committee which right away turned around and donated the cash to Lyons' 2006 campaign.

If Lyons ever does run for Guv one thing is certain--he can forget about accusing Big Bill and the Dems of "pay to play" politics.

POWELL PERCHED

Watching all of this from the sidelines is former Dem Land Commissioner Ray Powell, Jr. who
tells me he is ready to tell you that he is planning another run at the office in '10. Lyons can't seek a third term, so it will be an open race. Powell served over 10 years in the land office. He sought the Dem nomination last year, but was defeated by Jim Baca who went on to lose to Lyons.

Veternarian Powell now works for the Jane Goodall Institute which "empowers people to make a difference for all living things."

THE PRESS & PETE: TAKE TWO

We blogged Monday that in contrast to the national press, we see the NM press as largely ignoring the political fortunes of Senator Domenici, while ably covering the US attorney scandal. Some of the print scribes answered back that there has been political coverage. For example, they pointed to this March piece by the ABQ Journal's Michael Coleman in which he hits upon Pete's re-election prospects while also covering the outlook for ABQ GOP Congresswoman Heather Wilson.

We're political junkies, but my instincts tell me there should be more. Also, what of the non-coverage of the Survey USA poll showing Pete dropping to an historically low approval rating of 54%? Does that go unreported because the poll is "non-scientific" or because it is done for a TV station and no one in the NM press wants to quote another news source? Or are we, as our friend Bruce Daniels at the ABQ Journal might say, "congenitally conspiratorial?" We're just asking...

THE END IS NEAR?

Yes, it is a depressing no-end-in-sight war in Iraq, but is the end finally coming into view? We think so as top Republicans realize they face another electoral drubbing in '08 if they fail to follow the will of those who put them in power. The system works, but often slowly.

NO TOUCH-UP TO THIS PHOTO

Big Bill says he is a "hands-on"guy, and this photo snapped at Drake University in Iowa by the Des Moines Register continues to prove the point. Please Alligators, hold the ribald comments.

Keep us posted. Send your political news and comments via the email link at the top of the page, and drop in again soon. This is the home of New Mexico politics--www.joemonahan.com

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2007
Not for reproduction without permission of the author

Pete Domenici
By ordinary measures he's doing very well indeed. First and foremost, at 75, he's above ground, not a small accomplishment if you've been around long enough to see what life can dish out. He has a large and supportive family, a laundry list of friends from D.C. to Deming and a satisfying and challenging job. If this was the guy next door, they would be handing him a gold watch, a fishing pole and a Holland Cruise certificate. But Pete Domenici is not Ralph Kramden. He's...well...Pete V. Domenici--living legend. Ordinary measures do not apply.

At a time of expected placidness, the political career of New Mexico's longest ever serving United States Senator (1973-?) has never seen more turmoil. His health is sometimes frail. There's whispering that it may be time to finally come down from the pedestal. But Domenici still holds a high hand when it comes to determining the future of New Mexico politics. Barring the unforeseen, the ABQ native is not about to cash in his chips for the retirement rocker. But his path to a seventh term, assumed to be as smooth as a baby's backside, will now be strewn with some pebbles, if not boulders.

"Domenici's people are like the rest of us--waiting for a strong Democratic candidate. None has emerged. They are betting that despite the (US Attorney) scandal and the longevity question, in the end he will get no serious competition," informs a political veteran along the banks of the Potomac.

The expectation may not be unreasonable. While D.C. Democrats think Pete is vulnerable as never before, there is a disconnect with NM D's who voice little optimism.

"We need a young energetic candidate," newly installed NM Dem party chairman Brian Colón told me recently. And who is that contender? Colón and company is stumped.

THE WILD CARD

There is a wild card. It belongs to Big Bill. The NM Governor has reshaped the landscape, replacing Domenici as the state's dominant political figure. But Bill, who could easily meet all the deadlines for a senate run if his Prez campaign folds in early February '08, would be more prone to run if Domenici steps down. Still, the tension over this scenario is palpable and will be with us until the Dems put a strong player on the field--not one Bill could push aside--or until February of next year.

THE HEALTH ANGLE

Domenici's health and stamina has been the subject of intense interest. It appears to be a mixed bag. For example, on his Web site a late-April video clip shows an engaged and robust Domenici discussing electric cars, but in a TV public service blurb on mental health now running on NM TV, he reads his lines haltingly and in weak voice, appearing to be a very old 75. His health care is the best, but this, like the Big Bill factor, will be scrutinized as Pete starts his march toward his 76th birthday.

THE PROBE

The startling news that the senior senator had been forced to hire a criminal defense attorney to represent him in a preliminary Senate Ethics Committee probe over the US Attorney scandal was a jaw-dropper. It signaled a problem had turned into a crisis. And it's just beginning. How Domenici maneuvers and how tough the Capitol Hill Dems will be on him will be a major factor for his 2008 political health.

THE POLLS
Pete (circa 1970)
We need in-depth numbers. We don't have them yet. We do have the mid-April Survey USA automatic phone survey that has Pete's approval rating plummeting from 64% to 54% in the wake of the scandal in which former NM US Attorney Iglesias contends Domenici tried to pressure him into speeding up indictments of Democrats to benefit the re-election campaign of Pete protégé, ABQ GOP Congresswoman Heather Wilson. This is a notable decline and one his advisers must take seriously. In this poll, the senator has dipped below 50% with Dems and Independents. The luster on Saint Pete's halo is tarnished. The effort by the GOP to demonize Iglesias has failed.

Domenici is also facing a new generation of voters raised in a youth culture. They are not as forgiving of their elders. Domenici will need political surgery in the form of paid media to get his numbers back up. If the ethics probe fizzles, the task will be easier. If it becomes a "drip-drip" of bad news, Domenici could have a hard time recapturing the magic 60% mark.

THE CAMPAIGN

If Pete draws no significant opponent, his campaign will be able to control his appearances and mold public perception to their liking. The nightmare scenario is a strong challenger who raises millions, has credibility in the polls and starts demanding live TV debates. How would voters react to a prolonged view of a much-slower Pete than the one they are accustomed to? They are getting it in snippets now, not in contrast with a young vigorous opponent holding the same stage. How would the Domenici camp respond to the debate demand? Could they get away with ignoring it as in past years? These questions will never arise as long as the Dems remain unsuccessful in recruiting a first-tier foe.

THE PRESS

As with the disconnect on Pete's standing among national Dems and local Dems, there is also a disconnect in the press. The national media has churned out copious copy analyzing Domenici's political fortunes in the wake of the US attorney mess. But the New Mexico press has remained largely silent, ably covering the scandal, but so far ignoring the impact it has on his re-election bid.

Domenici's constant news releases are the stuff of newsroom legend and wisecracks. His proven ability to deliver has made not only the electorate protective of him, but also the printed press. Still, a contested campaign would make this a non-factor as such a race would be largely decided on the paid and unpaid airwaves. There would be no restraining the TV newsers, where a competitive race would spark a frenzy of coverage. There also might be no restraining broadcasters' demand for TV debates if the polls showed a race in-play.

THE BOTTOM LINES

Fighting Father Time is the real battle here. The electorate, out of deep respect for his accomplishments, had been willing to gloss over any age related issues, but the US attorney scandal, the sour mood created by the no-end-in-sight Iraq war, the senator's firm support of that war and an unpopular President, has cost him that luxury. When he blows out his birthday candles today, Senator Domenici will be making more wishes than he did when he turned 74.

This is where New Mexico's political conversation begins--www.joemonahan.com. Send your news and comments via email from the link at the top of the page. Interested in advertising here? Drop an email line.