The final SurveyUSA poll was released Saturday. The ABQ Journal's last survey comes Sunday. In SurveyUSA, conducted for KOB-TV, Obama continues to lead in New Mexico--52-45%--going into the final hours. McCain will make an Election Eve stop in Roswell at 6 p.m. at the airport hangar there. Tom Udall retains a large lead--56 to 42%-- over Steve Pearce in the US Senate race. Here is the analysis from SurveyUSA:

Maybe, At the Wire, A Slight Tightening in the New Mexico President and US Senate Contests:

Democrat Barack Obama defeats Republican John McCain, to capture the state's 5 electoral votes, and Democrat Tom Udall defeats Republican Steve Pearce to capture the US Senate seat vacated by Republican Peter Domenici, according to SurveyUSA's final pre-election tracking poll. In four SurveyUSA polls since mid-September, Obama has received 52%, McCain has received 44% or 45%. Of New Mexicans who tell SurveyUSA they have already voted, Obama leads big. Among those who have not yet voted, but who promise to, Obama leads small. The relative size of those two groups will determine Obama's winning margin.

In the contest for United States Senate, Democrat Tom Udall defeats Republican Steve Pearce 56% to 42%, the closest Pearce has been to Udall in 4 tracking polls, and 4 points tighter than the race was mid-October. In Bernalillo County, Udall's once 24-point advance is now 13, as Pearce breaks 40% for the first time. SurveyUSA interviewed 800 New Mexico adults 10/29/08 through 10/31/08. Of them, 721 were registered to vote; of them, 664 were determined by SurveyUSA to have already voted or to be likely to vote on or before Election Day.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2008
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Democrats are still dancing in Bernalillo County but with an outside chance that their party could be disturbed by an upset Election Night. The only major race in which the Democrat is not polling above the 50% magic number is in that down-to-the-wire, hit-or-be-hit battle for district attorney. Our exclusive poll conducted Thursday night among 403 likely voters shows two-term incumbent Democrat Kari Brandenburg beating Republican Lisa Torraco. Kari gets 48.9% to Lisa's 43.3% with 7.8% undecided. The margin of error is 4.88%.

Torraco has hammered Brandenburg over her handling of several high profile cases and earned extra attention from the ABQ Journal which endorsed her this week. But Brandenburg has several TV spots in heavy rotation on the broadcast networks while Torraco is up on cable TV and radio. Brandenburg loaned her campaign $70,000 to close out the race and that could make the difference. The Democratic trend, exacerbated by straight ticket voting, may mean the race is out of reach. However, Torraco is close enough to justify working it hard all the way to the finish.

MARTIN AND DARREN

There is only a minor change in the race for the ABQ congressional seat in our latest poll conducted by Positive Contacts Consulting using automatic phone call methodology. New Mexico Politics with Joe Monahan asked 418 likely voters in Bernalillo County who they would vote for. 52.8% said they support Democrat Martin Heinrich and 43.9% said they would vote for Republican Darren White. 3.3% were undecided and the margin of error in the poll is 4.85%. The poll was scaled to reflect 48% Democrats, 36% Republicans and 16% Independents.

In our October 21 survey, Heinrich was polling 52.20% and White 40.63%. As is traditional, the Republican candidate is picking up strength in the final days, but based on these numbers the race remains "lean Democrat." White is expected to beat Heinrich substantially in the rural portion of the district, but if Heinrich wins Bernalillo County by two points or better it should be enough for the win. 

Our headline today is a real grabber, but we're in the business of promoting competitive elections, so anytime we see the big dog running away, we wonder what it's like running with the pup. So, with every indicator and pundit pointing to an Obama win in New Mexico Election Night, let's flip the coin and try to make the case for a McCain win in the Land of Enchantment, a stunning upset that would grip the nation.

WEATHER---One of those big fall snowstorms descends on Northern NM, surprising everyone and crashing voter turnout in the Spanish Democratic counties to below the poor turnout Kerry had there in 2004 when he lost the state. That cuts Obama's expected northern margin and boosts McCain statewide. Remember, early voting should be lower in many of those areas than in the city so an Election Day storm could pack a punch.

RACE CARD--The polls have it all wrong. There really is a "Bradley Effect." Maybe not as big, but Fernando C de Baca was right and older Hispanics waiting to vote on Election Day go against Obama 4 to 1. That's not enough by itself, but remember, we have that snowstorm going.

ABQ BURNOUT--The young ones (under 30) say this thing is over and turnout collapses around the university area precincts in Las Cruces and ABQ, as well as Santa Fe and Taos.

HEIGHTS ARISES--R's in ABQ's voter rich NE Heights have a change of heart and slap on their cashmere sweaters and surprise everyone by heading to the polls on Election Day in larger than expected numbers.

CALAMITY---The increased Republican turnout is pushed along by a huge news event that calls into question the foreign policy credentials of Obama. It happens on Friday morning, giving McCain a huge boost in the heavy early voting Friday and Saturday and absentees mailed on those days

So it could happen. The problem is one of these events alone wouldn't do it--Mac appears to need all of them. Still, we've done our public service for today. Obama supporters reading this may start walking their neighborhoods, trolling for votes. They lose weight, get healthier hearts and the national medical bill goes down. See, these blogs really do move the needle.

TURNOUT TIME

Obama campaign higher-ups here say they are meeting their goals for early voting and that provides them protection from any fall off in Election Day voting. One report we ran had early voting coming in low in heavy Dem Rio Arriba County, but an operative says early voting is going as Obama expected there, but the reports from the county clerk have been slow.

FARMINGTON FALL OFF

Potentially scary news for the R's out of Farmington. Early voting in San Juan County is lagging. Twice as many people voted early in 2004 compared with recent numbers. The Four Corners county is 46% Republican and 38% R and over the years has delivered reliable majorities for the R's. The big advantage Dems have shown over the R's in early voting is also of concern for the minority party. A low early turnout in the Farmington area is more of a concern for R's because R's traditionally cast much of their vote early and absentee. The many Navajo Democrats there tend to wait until Election Day. My experts say there are no key legislative races in play that will be impacted by a low Farmington area R turnout, but it would help Obama and congressional hopeful Ben Ray Lujan.

CUTTING THE FAT

The NM budget crunch can be alleviated in the short-term by recovering money put up by the Legislature for construction projects that have not been built. That's what the Guv is proposing and the search is underway to find money just sitting there. They're already looking in Dona Ana County, a process that is going statewide.

The Legislature has to approve transferring this unspent capital outlay money to the general fund so it can cover the money shortfall. Will lawmakers resist and look like pork barrel artists? The Guv has the PR advantage on this one, whether or not reluctant legislators go along. Some of that construction money has been there for years, a testament to the inefficiency of pork barrel politics.

THE ECLIPSE OF ECLIPSE?

We've long been on the side that says the sky is falling on Eclipse Aviation, and now it may.

Forecast International Inc. will release a new report in December that predicts Eclipse Aviation will cease production of its very light jets in 2009.

The forecast predicts the company will go out of business in 2009. You read that right--out of business. Eclipse laid off over 600 this summer in ABQ. There are still over a thousand employees there. Layoffs of that magnitude will take a major toll on the city economy.

Eclipse is the company that Big Bill and ABQ Mayor Mayor Marty pumped millions into. Chavez is up for re-election in 2009 and if Eclipse meets its demise you think it would be a big issue. But all of those running against Chavez were on the same bandwagon fueled by euphoria, making it hard for them to make hay.

TAX TIME

May we be the first to suggest that if Santa Fe starts getting the itch to raise taxes that they have plenty of room at the top of the tree? Big Bill's first tax cut years ago was for the most well-off New Mexicans. You remember that. It was the one meant to encourage wealthy executives--some from Eclipse--to locate here. Well, doesn't look like we will be needing to do that anytime soon. Of course, there shouldn't be any tax increases at all unless Santa Fe acts oblivious and tries to continue their spending party on your back.

POLITICAL FALLOUT

One wonders if Mayor Chavez will be as committed to seeking re-election as the local economy craters. Eclipse was his crown jewel of economic development. He went as far as announcing his 2005 re-election plans at Eclipse. How is that going to look in 2009? This recession is looking nasty and even usually placid ABQ does not look as if it will be spared. Chavez's approval rating, according to our recent Oct. 22 poll, was 45% in Bernalillo County, below the magic 50% mark. He may do a reality check before going for another four years. How things look after the holidays may tell the tale.

The failure of Eclipse would be a stern message to policy makers and biz leaders that our state's permanent funds and other resources need to be preserved, and that gambling with the state's savings is so 1990's.

CITY CASH CHAOS

We've told you recently that the deficit for the City of ABQ for the fiscal year that got underway in July was on track to total a whopping $50 million. Well, for the July quarter it was $17 million, according to chief financial officer Anna Lamberson. If it's the same for the October-December quarter, and there is no good reason to think it won't, that would be a deficit of $34 million for just the first half of the year. If the recession goes for a full year? That $50 million figure could look good.

Mayor Chavez and Lamberson need to act now or risk adding to the red ink. One of the biggest stumbling blocks is the over funding of the city's police and fire departments. Those two agencies alone are consuming a stunning 53 percent of the budget. But Chavez and the city council are reluctant to do what needs to be done, dreading the possible political consequences of a crime-fearing public. But the pressure will only grow for public safety efficiency and cutbacks if and when layoffs of classified city employees in other departments is required. (TV news reported last night trouble over proposed city employee pay raises.) There's already a hiring freeze at City Hall and vacant positions are going unfilled. Unless this economy snaps back, city government could be on a collision course with its sacred cows. Don't say we didn't tell you.

CAN YOU BELIEVE IT?

In light of that news, can you believe they are actually talking about raising ABQ taxes to finance a $400 million downtown arena and hotel complex? In this economy? In any economy? Did something get into the city water supply? Maybe their drinking the same stuff they had before turning the keys of the city over to Eclipse. Hey, if Eclipse goes under, maybe they can park all the planes that didn't sell in the arena that will be vacant year-round. Viva La Politica!

MORE CITY ACTION
Alan Armijo
Confirmed. Dem Bernalillo County Commissioner Alan Armijo is telling friends he has definite plans to run next year for the downtown area city council seat held by Dem Ike Benton. "It is not speculation; it is for sure," said one Armijo confidant. Wonder how Ike and Alan feel about that $400 million arena/hotel? Think some voters might ask?

And insiders say Dem Westside City Councilor Michael Cadigan will run for mayor next year as a "fiscal conservative." Is that the same Michael Cadigan who they threatened to recall for being a "California liberal?" Maybe Light Guv Denish, a good friend of Michael's, can give him some tips on how to fade the heat to come over his fiscal credentials. Let the games begin....

CAMPOS WATCH

We blogged yesterday of the five legislative races in which big money was being put in by R oilman Harvey Yates and commented that none of them appear to tip R. But readers chime in that Rep. Jose Campos of Santa Rosa needs to be watched. Yates is supporting R Matt Rush and they say he has a shot in that district. Duly noted. We will watch for it when we broadcast Election Night results on KANW 89.1 FM.

TEAGUE TALK

Has a sex harassment suit involving a female worker at Harry Teague's oil field services company in Hobbs been dismissed or not? Teague says it has. His GOP opponent for the southern congressional seat, Ed Tinsley, says it is still active. He launched a new round of cable TV and radio spots about the suit this week. That prompted Teague to send out the letter from his lawyer posted here (click to enlarge) that says the suit has been settled. However, it appears Tinsley is hanging his hat on a technicality. The lawyer says an "Order of Dismissal" should be entered in the case by October 31.

Still, an Alligator for Tinsley says: "I think Teague is pulling a fast one on the sexual harassment suit. He, his son and wife are the sole owners of both of their companies. The lady complained to Harry AND to his son. Neither ever responded to her complaints."

Meanwhile, seems Harry Teague, like Obama, believes in "spreading the wealth." He put up cash for 85 free roast beef dinners in Grants the other night to woo local voters. Now that's our kind of socialism. And Steve Pearce, you are so busted! You served hot dogs at your weekend ABQ Valley rally, letting your Hobbs neighbor Teague one up you in the north. What are the folks back home going to say?

UP THE LADDER

She was passed over for a NM Supreme Court appointment, but a favorite Big Bill ABQ judge gets her promotion. From the Fourth Floor:

Governor Richardson announced the appointment of Linda M. Vanzi to the NM Court of Appeals. Vanzi is currently a 2nd Judicial District Court Judge in Albuquerque. She will fill a newly vacated seat on the Appeals Court. “Judge Vanzi...stands out and is known for being fair and competent..." says Bill.

Vanzi gets the post held by Judge Lynn Pickard.

A SWINGIN' AFFAIR




Are we having any fun yet? You betcha....

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(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2008
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Today in this fair state of ours there are 226,000 citizens who are at peace with themselves. They smile knowingly when the TV and radio blare the latest political ads; they give a knowing look when they hear their neighbors argue over Obama and McCain. The attitude of these citizens is eerily preternatural as they go about their business, oblivious to the rest of us who fret over the fate of the nation and the state of the state. Who are these throngs of the self-satisfied? Why, they are the early voters of New Mexico.

Osama bin Laden comes out for Obama? Who cares? Bush invades Iran? Not a problem. Steve Pearce calls for world peace and an immediate withdrawal from Iraq? Fugghedaboutit! They've already voted. There's no turning back now. But we can't blame them for bailing out of the final frenzied days of Campaign '08. Bliss is hard to come by in this world. If it takes early voting to get it, who are we to argue?

If early voting does indeed settle the soul, the residents of Lincoln County are as at ease as your grandma in a rocking chair on a summer night. Over 30 percent of voters in that county have already cast early ballots, the highest rate of any county in the state. There's a glimmer of good news in that for the beleaguered Republican Party. Lincoln is a majority R county. But it's only a glimmer of good news because registered voters there total just 14,000. In Big Bernalillo, TV news reports over 104,000 have already cast ballots, about 26% of the 393,000 now registered. Overall, Dems are outpacing R's in the early and absentee voting.

While the early voting is heavy, my experts predict between 70 and 75% of NM's 1,184,000 (updated number) registered voters will end up casting ballots, short of the over 80% who went to the polls in 1992 and set the state turn-out record.

HEINRICH VS. WHITE

You think the rhetoric is getting heated in the final days? For sure. ABQ Dem congressional candidate Martin Heinrich's camapign unloaded on Darren White's latest TV ad that calls Heinrich "disgraceful" "dishonest" and "extreme." It is an old-fashioned, hard-hitting Hail Mary that comes in the final hours and sometimes finds a receiver. Here's the punch back from the Martin spinners:

(ABQ GOP congressional candidate) Darren White released an outrageous, extreme television ad personally attacking Heinrich and echoing McCain's failed Swift Boat-style attacks. In this final week, White has escalated his vicious, unfounded attack ads rather than talking about his vision for what he would do in Congress. His campaign has consistently taken the low-road and hid behind hateful attacks and lies..."

White's nuke ad says years ago Heinrich hung out with radical enviro Dave Foreman who the ad says tried to shut down a nuclear power plant. If Heinrich does make it to Congress, he is going to have to carve out moderate positions on the environment and other key issues or face problematic re-election.

On this year's election KRQE-TV news anchor Dick Knipfing, in the game now 46 years, talked about the race Tuesday. We agreed that Heinrich appears headed to victory, but both of us believe White still has a shot at the upset. This district knows how to deliver a surprise, said the news legend. Just ask Congresswoman Patricia Madrid.

ED'S HAIL MARY

Southern GOP congressional hopeful Ed Tinsley is taking one more pass at closing the deal against Dem frontrunner Harry Teague, and it's a Hail Mary. Rancher Ed hits Harry over a sexual harassment suit filed against an employee of Teague's Hobbs oil field services company. Tinsley says the case is still pending; Teague said in a TV debate that it has been settled. The campaign also released radio ads attacking Teague for not being pro-gun, the sex harassment suit and one that mocks Teague's communications skills.

The Tinsley campaign also moved to strike down speculation heard here that Ed has basically pulled the plug on his campaign and will use his leftover campaign funds to pay back money he has lent himself.

"The Tinsley for Congress campaign wants to silence anybody who would doubt our commitment to this race..New and targeted ads districtwide are based on our opponent’s words and actions and his self-admitted inability to communicate a clear message.” Said Tinsley press aide jim Pettit.

Well, Jim, we can understand your desire to silence the Alligators. Trouble is, Ed is placing these targeted ads only on cable TV. That's not a whole lot of cash. Meanwhile, the southern race remains lean Dem. One other thing, Jim. It's near impossible to silence an Alligator. They have pretty big jaws that they just love to open.

HERE COMES CUMMINS

Tim Cummins, trying to buck the tide and take the ABQ Public Regulation Commission seat back in the Republican column, has come with an attack on incumbent Dem Commissioner Jason Marks. He tries to tie Marks to former state Insurance Superintendent Eric Serna who resigned under an ethical shadow. Insiders say polling in the district shows Marks keeping the seat, despite it being set up for the Republicans. Much of the problem is straight party voting that is boosting Marks, an attorney and chairman of the PRC. The seat was once held by longtime GOP politico Herb Hughes. And just a minute go I saw Marks on one of the network affiliate TV news programs.

BEN RAY ON THE ROAD

From the northern Dem congressional contender:

Ben Ray Luján, the Democratic nominee for Congress in the 3rd District, will attend an event today in Clovis with U.S. Representative Silvestre Reyes, Chairman of the Intelligence Committee.

Clovis is home to Cannon Air Force Base which was threatened with closure, but rescued by the state's congressional delegation. Reyes' ties to the military community seems to be the point of bringing him in as Lujan tries to show conservative Dem Anglos in Clovis that he can deliver for the area on Capitol Hill and make sure Cannon's new mission endures.

Lujan is starting to close out the race and comes with this spot. It shows him addressing a group of supporters and he carries the entire spot. His youth may be appealing in this year when voters want change. Lujan, son of NM House Speaker Ben Lujan, may be a little zesty in this one but it ends up working.

RIO RANCHO ACTION

Insiders are giving Sandoval County Commissioner Jack Thomas a pretty good chance of keeping in Dem hands the state House seat being vacated by Rio Rancho Mayor Tom Swisstack. He is being challenged by Paula Papponi. The district has leaned R in the past, but Swisstack, a popular figure in the city, moved the district to D. One election Tom won by less than 20 votes. But the Dem trend could help Thomas keep it for his party.

Meanwhile, the NM Dem Party has been going over the state finance reports and finds that SE NM oil gazillionaire Harvey Yates of the Republican Yates family is playing in several state legislative races.

New Mexico Turnaround, a Political Action Committee (PAC) funded almost exclusively by oil man Harvey Yates, reported having funneled over $140,000 into six New Mexico legislative campaigns, practically underwriting the entire costs of these campaigns.

The seats Harvey has been helping with are the aforementioned Rio Rancho battle. According to state D's, he has given Papponi $27,840; Mike Tellez running against Dem. Rep Nunez in Dona Ana received $21,700; Cathrynn Brown up against Rep. Heaton in Carlsbad got $24,630; Kent Evans trying to unseat Rep. Steinborn in Las Cruces received $24,630; Tim Lardner going after Valencia State Rep. Barreras was given $15,000 as was Matt Rush who is running against Rep. Jose Campos of Santa Rosa.

Insiders tell us GOP State Sen. Rod Adair of Roswell is helping to execute Yates' legislative campaigns. Adair's demographic research firm has received $48,000. The president for the Yates PAC is former ABQ GOP Rep. Garth Simms. Yates may have a long Election Night. All the Dems he is up against are favored to win.

LISA & KARI
Thank the man (or woman) upstairs for Kari and Lisa. With the political races closing out faster than a coffin lid on Dracula at sunrise, we need action for the final hours. And our gal pals are giving us some. Here we go....

GOP Bernalillo County District Attorney candidate Lisa Torraco says she does have TV ads up, but they seem to be mainly on cable. We did see some 15 second spots on KASA, Channel 2 in ABQ which is an over the air station. The spots attack Brandenburg. Lisa e-mailed in following our report in which we wondered where she was on the tube as incumbent Dem DA Brandenburg has made a pretty hefty buy, spending $70,000 of her own money. Torraco did not respond to our question if she was buying the major stations--CBS, NBC and ABC--which consultants say you need if you are to move the voters in a big way at this late stage.

Meanwhile, the ABQ Journal Tuesday endorsed Torraco, while Brandenburg supporters charged the morning daily of already doing that on their news pages. They claim that for the nearly eight years Brandenburg has been the county's chief prosecutor news coverage has been sparse, with months passing without any news of note. But Torraco's camp points out that it hs been recently that Brandenburg has made some of her most high-profile errors drawing the intense coverage.

DEEP INSIDER INFO
Pat Rogers
The conspiracy theory circulated by some Dems is that GOP attorney Pat Rogers has close ties to the newspaper and wants Torraco as DA to turn up the heat on advocacy groups like ACORN that have registered thousands of new voters. Rogers, who played a major role in the NM end of the US Attorney scandal, is an attorney with the Modrall Law Firm and a member of the board of directors of the NM Foundation for Open Government (FOG), a group heavily supported by the newspaper. Torraco was asked about Rogers' support during an appearance on KKOB-AM radio this week. She said he is just another Republican supporting her.

The polling on this battle has given R's some hope that Torraco would be one candidate who would escape the Dem tidal wave. An insider poll taken a couple of weeks ago had Brandenburg about 10 points ahead. The race may have tightened since then, but Brandenburg remains favored. Still, this is a bad year for incumbents, especially long-serving ones like Kari. NM Politics with Joe Monahan will poll the DA's race Thursday and bring you the results Friday.

MORE POLLING

On the topic of polls, Brian Sanderoff of the ABQ Journal will come with his second and final poll of the political season Sunday and it will include the southern congressional race featuring Teague and Tinsley. The paper did not poll that contest in its first poll released in early October. Polling we've seen shows possibly fatal damage being inflicted on Tinsley in Lea, Eddy and Chaves counties. In a poll conducted for this Web site Oct. 22 Teague was beating Tinsley in vote-rich Dona Ana County 48% to 38%.

VIVA LAS VEGAS

Michelle Obama worked a crowd of about 3,000 in Las Vegas in heavily Dem San Miguel County Tuesday afternoon, as the Obama campaign pushes hard for a turnout in this key area. Only 61% of the registered voters came out to vote in 2004. They should be able to bump that up to 70% with visits like Michelle Obama's as well as the field organization the Obama camp is fond of talking about. Let's see how they do in Vegas when the talking stops Election Night and the counting begins. (Thanks to Helen Laura Lopez for the pic from Vegas.)

CROWD CONTROL: PART II

We've been having fun pitting the Aggies against the Lobos over which city--ABQ or Las Cruces--can claim kudos for hosting the largest political rally in state history. We've pretty much nailed it down that it's the Lobos ball--the Obama Saturday rally was the biggest ever. But just so we aren't accused of being a referee favorable to our home city, we have more evidence for the call. Former Big Bill press secretary Billy Sparks calls with this report.

"Joe, I was working with the Democrats in '96 when President Clinton held his New Mexico State University rally. I staffed the event. I can tell you that the President mentioned in his remarks the crowd "of 35,000 or whatever it is" as he looked out at the sea of faces. It is clear that the Obama rally Saturday that drew 45,000 has been the biggest, although the president's visit was memorable."

Thanks, Billy. With a former NMSU regent verifying the Cruces rally numbers as well as KOB-TV's Valerie Castro confirming the crowd size through the station's archives and now Billy weighing in, we think even Dona Ana booster and State Rep. Joe Cervantes will have to agree Loboland takes this one.

For the conspiracy theorists--including the ABQ Journal's Bruce Daniels, a possible member of the Illuminati--we must tell you that Sparks works at the University of New Mexico. Would he dare twist the numbers in favor of the Lobos? Well, did Billy ever, ever do such a thing when he was press secretary for Big Bill?.....There, you have your answer.

ROCK AROUND THE BLOCK

Here we go, rockers. Santa Fe's Jim Terr is "Rockin' Round the Block." As in Jerome Block, Jr., the hyper-controversial Democrat for the northern Public Regulation Commission seat. Grab that gal over there and let's dance...



Ladies and gentlemen, now you're bloggin'.....

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(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2008
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A Tsunami warning has been issued and the captain has given the order. It's every man for himself. With just one week before Election Day, experts across the board say a repudiation of historic proportions of the Bush presidency and the New Mexico Republican Party seems unavoidable. Public and private polling here reveals the tsunami wave that is already splashing onto the early voting. It will now be a major upset if any Republican is elected to the United States Congress from this state in 2008. That would mean one party control of the state's five member D.C. delegation for the first time since the state added its third US House seat in 1983.

The US Senate seat which Pete Domenici reclaimed for the R's in 1972 is now days away from switching back to the D's. Insider polling indicates Tom Udall will lead the ticket, giving the Democrats New Mexico's two US Senate seats for the first time since 1972 when they were held by Clinton Anderson and Joe Montoya.

The NM state Senate, with a make-up today of 24 Democrats and 18 Republicans, is now forecast to go even more blue, with Democratic and independent polling showing GOP Senators Snyder and Rawson especially imperiled. At least two other R seats are thought to be at risk. The state House seems more stable, but it is already colored deep blue with 42 Dems and only 28 Republicans.

What you're seeing is not your father's Democratic Party. There is a ferociousness beneath the surface that is reminiscent of 1994 when R's regained the Congress after decades of being squished by the Democratic thumb. The R's wanted their revenge then and today the Dems want theirs.

Take, for example, the lambasting of NM GOP National Committeeman Pat Rogers and ABQ GOP State Representative Justine Fox Young. The pair decided to tie themselves to the mast and go down with the ship. When they came with charges of voter fraud, but could not produce any votes proving the allegation Democrats and their allies Monday rose up in near rage. Lawsuits were filed, and blogs and the mainstream media were all over it. Rogers and Fox-Young were soaked by the front end of the wave.

Another sign of a possible landslide in the making was seen when John McCain appeared Saturday morning in ABQ. Few, if any state Republican candidates showed up. ABQ GOP US House candidate Darren White, who stayed away from McCain's Oct. 6 ABQ visit, did give a speech at this one, but was long gone by the time McCain took the stage. White is expected to outpoll McCain in Bernalillo County Election Night.

FINGER-POINTING STARTS
Weh
The chairman of the state GOP, Allen Weh, is already coming under fire as the inevitable finger-pointing begins. Fairly or not, he now faces the prospect of his name forever being associated with one of the biggest Republican disasters in state history. Weh foes snipe that the decision by the party in 2006 not to seriously contest the governorship or the Bingaman senate seat now look reckless. Then there is the obsessiveness over protecting Heather Wilson in her ABQ House seat at the expense of party building around the state. Senator Domenici's decision not to retire in 2000 is more fodder for the second-guessers. Then there was the failure of the party to stop either Steve Pearce or Heather Wilson from risking their House seats to run for the US Senate. Like we said, the finger-pointing is already plentiful.

If this rout unfolds as it appears it will, the state Republican Party may find itself on the brink of irrelevancy. Top R's are already talking about how the Democrats will overreach and they will be back. Maybe. But first there is a tsunami to face and causalities to be counted.

MAYOR MARTY'S NUMBERS
Chavez
This is not an especially friendly environment for any incumbent, so we weren't terribly surprised when we saw ABQ Mayor Martin Chavez's approval rating in Bernalillo County was at 45.08%, below the 50% mark which signals vulnerability. The poll, conducted for New Mexico Politics with Joe Monahan by Positive Contacts Consulting October 22 among 712 likely voters, found that Chavez's unfavorable rating was 26.1%. Those with no opinion totaled 18.8%. But there is an "if." Chavez is more popular within the city limits and our poll was done of the whole county. Within the city, Chavez is probably right at that 50% mark, according to several polling mavens we consulted.

Still, Chavez is now serving his third four year term in and there are signs of fatigue. The days of 60% approval ratings appear gone. But what isn't gone is Chavez's political acumen vis-à-vis his opposition. He is expected to seek a fourth term next October and no big name opposition has surfaced. It appears Dem City Councilor Michael Cadigan, who has been an on again off again name, is now on again. Former State Senator Richard Romero says he may go as well. If both ran, they could split the liberal vote, helping Chavez who appeals more to moderates and conservatives.

Chavez, who wanted to advance to the governorship or Senate, sees that those dreams are out of reach. But the mayor's office is a different matter. Even with a somewhat mediocre approval rating, Chavez remains the class of his division when it comes to running for mayor. His foes have an opening, but it will take a lot of work to make it big enough to squeeze through.

THE GOATEE IS GOING

Never mind the weighty issues for a moment, what about Big Bill's beard, or "goatee" as radio shock jock Don Imus called it in an interview with the Guv Monday morning? "It's gone by the end of the year. It's a pain to maintain," said Bill.

We might add that facial hair is not a good idea when doing a job interview and it looks like Bill could be doing one....by the end of the year.

PEARCE VS. UDALL

We're getting near the end and you can tell it because the candidates are starting to close out on a positive note. Here's Republican US Senate candidate Steve Pearce with a soft sales pitch.

HEINRICH VS. WHITE

Time Magazine takes a look at the ABQ US House race and wonders if it is about to turn blue. Dem Martin Heinrich put out an e-mail Monday with the headline, "White Wins by a Hair," as he worked to motivate volunteers in the final stretch. He's still raising money, too. Former northern congressional candidate Don Wiviott is hosting a high-dollar fundraiser at his Santa Fe home for Heinrich. Wiviott, in a bitter primary campaign with Ben Ray Lujan for the northern seat, has mended fences with Lujan. Now the fund-raiser for Heinrich. Is the Santa Fe home builder looking to the future?

White said Monday his race with Heinrich has gotten even tougher in recent days, but he described it as a "dead heat" as he continued to pound the pavement.

TEAGUE VS. TINSLEY

Figures released Monday showed southern NM GOP congressional candidate Ed Tinsley had about $436,000 in cash on hand as of mid-October. We reported insider speculation Monday that Tinsley, who has loaned himself $500,000 for the general election campaign, might be planning to repay himself that money as his campaign has canceled its major TV buys for the last week of the campaign. Meanwhile, Dem Harry Teague reports his total personal loans for the primary and general election campaigns now total $1.8 million. Teague reported about $400,000 cash on hand at mid-month and a $500,000 personal loan in October. Teague is getting TV help from the national Dems while Tinsley is getting very little from the national R's.

Teague has picked up an endorsement in the heart of Republican territory. Alamogordo Mayor Steve Brockett in Otero County said: "...In these challenging economic times, I believe we need a leader who knows what it's like to struggle. I believe it takes a compassionate leader who has a record of helping hardworking New Mexico families achieve their potential. I'm voting for Harry Teague..."

Otero is a bedrock R county, but Teague, an oilman from Hobbs, is expected to cut into Tinsley's winning margin there.

TURNING THEM OUT
Clerk Maggie
County Clerk Maggie reports that in Big Bernalillo about 97,000 votes so far have been cast by early and absentee ballot. There are 381,000 registered voters in the county. We are forecasting turnout of about 75% or 285,000. We think we are on track for a total early vote of about 60% of all votes cast, that's up from 55% in 2006. That would be about 171,000 total early votes. Dems have outvoted R's two to one in the early in-person vote. In the absentee, 20,000 Dems have voted, compared to 15,700 R's. Because of the increased early voting among Dems, we believe Election Day voting, heavily tilted in the past towards the Dems, will be less so this year.

The absentee vote among Democrats, according to several experts consulted, is not underpeforming. The Dems did not get enough of those ballots case here in 2004. The difference this time is that this is a presidential election year, drawing more voters and benefitting the Dems who claim 48% of the registered voters in the state's largest county which now comprises about 33% of the state's total. We have over 1,160,000 registered voters statewide.

ECONOMIC ANGST

Yes, ABQ is in a recession, but you already knew that. Have a government job? Hang on to it.

SHE WANTS IT BAD

Democratic Bernalillo County District Attorney Kari Brandenburg puts $70,000 of her own money into her race as she fights off a stiff Republican challenge from Lisa Torraco. Brandenburg is seeking a third four year term. Lisa has raised over $82,000 total; Kari is over $120,000. The DA's job pays $109,000. Why hasn't Lisa been on TV with that kind of money? Kari is on TV and she is likely to win the race because of it. Even if Lisa comes in the final six days, it may not be enough for a challenger. Lisa e-mails in to say now she is on TV. Her supporters e-mail to say she is on cable-tv. But Brandenburg is on over-the-air- television. 

MICHELLE, NEW MEXICO BELLE?

She won't draw 45,000 like her husband did in ABQ Saturday, but Michelle Obama will cover some important bases in northern New Mexico today when she rallies the faithful at the noon hour in heavily Hispanic and Democratic Las Vegas in San Miguel County. Kerry won the county in '04 with 71.67% to Bush's 27.34%. It was a 5,370 vote margin, but the turnout was not that great. That's a big part of Michelle's job today.

And remember, Michelle. You are in Las Vegas, New Mexico today, not Las Vegas, Nevada. We know you were in the gambling capital Monday and may get confused when you see all the Indian casinos up north today. You may think you are suffering from campaign hallucinations.

You'll be OK here. Just don't read the crazy political news. Well, you're from Chicago. You understand.

For the general election cycle, the Obamas have visited ABQ, Santa Fe, Las Cruces, Espanola and Las Vegas. Initial worries about Hispanic acceptance of a black prez candidate have been replaced by worries that Dems have to protect against overconfidence as polls show Obama carrying NM handily.

RULING ON THE RULES

No news yet on the state GOP rules committee meeting that was supposed to be held to examine whether GOP Vice-Chair Jon Barela should step down from his party post now that he has been appointed a member of the ABQ school board. There are conflicting interpretations on whether Barela can hold both posts. With the election only a week away and the R's suffering, the rules committee may want to delay any decision until after the voting. Barela has been mentioned as a possible future GOP chair, but friends say he is not that hot on the idea. We'll see.

RALLY AFTERMATH

They're still talking about the largest political rally in state history. Reader Debbie Stover was one of those at Johnson Field at the University of New Mexico to see Obama Saturday night:

I have seen no coverage of the "afterglow" of the rally. Thousands poured on to Central Avenue..they walked down the avenue waving signs and stalling traffic. But those in their cars didn't seem to mind, as most were honking and cheering for Obama. I have to tell you Joe, this was a real happening. It was like an impromptu parade, reminiscent of the 60s war protests, but with a completely different vibe. And it did not get the coverage it deserved.

Thanks, Debbie. And, yes. It was the largest political rally in state history and will be officially recorded as such. Nothing even comes close, with broadcast reports from the '96 Clinton rally in Las Cruces at New Mexico State putting the crowd there at an estimated 20,000. That number is now being inflated by some crafty e-mailing Aggies who want to lay claim to the all-time crowd title and give those ABQ Lobos something to hurt over.

NM Democratic Party Chairman Brian Colon, who lays claim to being both an Aggie--he went to undergraduate school at New Mexico State--as well as a Lobo--he is a UNM law school grad---did some independent research to determine the outcome of this all-important battle for bragging rights.

"I spoke with the NMSU regent in charge of coordinating the 1996 Clinton rally. He reports that the "Horseshoe" at NMSU was filled and the crowd estimate was 20,000. He said the high end estimate at the time was 30,000. Therefore, the Obama rally was the largest ever."

Yet another reason for the Aggies to try to extract their revenge when they meet the Lobos on the football field. Hey, maybe they can have the next Lobo-Aggie game at Johnson Field. That way they could try to beat Obama's record set there...

The home of New Mexico politics is with you through the final stretch, providing special coverage. E-mail your news and comments.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2008
Not for reproduction without permission of the author

Diane Denish
With each uptick in the polling for Barack Obama the heartbeat of Diane Denish probably ticks a bit faster. She is now on the verge of becoming the 26th person to hold the New Mexican governorship in the modern era, a story that is playing out under the radar as other epic political events sweep the state and await a decision from voters. But the permanent governing class in Santa Fe is already busy, preparing for the likely ascension of the lieutenant governor and anticipating that Big Bill Richardson could join an Obama administration weeks after the election.

The buzz over Richardson's possible departure is growing even louder in the final stretch, with top political sources saying the Governor is likely to be named to any Obama transition team, which will be the first indication of what post Richardson may get and when he would depart. If and when he does resign, the state Constitution says Denish will immediately be sworn in as Governor.

The Denish story may not come as surprise to the politically connected, but according to polling we commissioned recently, many New Mexicans are in for a jolt if they wake up and find Lady Di as Governor. Not that she is unpopular, but to many she remains unknown. Her favorable rating in Bernalillo County, the state's largest, stands at 50.4 percent. However, 30.0% have no opinion of Denish. The poll by Positive Contacts Consulting was taken Oct. 22 among 726 likely voters. Those polled are the most politically involved New Mexicans. Among those who are not likely voters, the number who do not know Denish well enough to have an opinion would very likely spike upwards. The good news for Denish is that only 19.5% of likely voters here have an unfavorable opinion of her.

In Dona Ana, the second largest county, Denish, 59, remains a largely unknown quantity with 44.5% of the 211 likely voters surveyed having no opinion of her. Her favorable rating among those that do know her was at 42.1% and her unfavorable rating was a low 13.2%.

THE DENISH OUTLOOK

Being half-known will have its benefits if Denish becomes the state's #1. If need be, she will have a chance for a makeover as Republicans try to pigeonhole her as a far left tax and spend Democrat. But if Denish takes over, it will be amid the worst financial condition state government has been in since the last energy price crash in the mid-1980's. Even the liberal wing of the Democratic Party is going to be chastened. The fight is likely to be about preserving current programs, not expanding them.

One of the more important decisions Denish will have to undertake is who she will hire to help her run the government. Big Bill has scooped up a lot of the state's top talent to run his cabinet departments. Denish may find she will have to run a transitional government, slowly turning over positions to her loyalists, rather than a sweeping change.

For better or worse, Denish will also be associated with Big Bill's politics, having served under him since 2003. Right now that looks like worse. We've often called Richardson the luckiest of governors, presiding over huge surpluses, but now that he appears headed toward the exits, the party is over. Just in time for him to hand the broom to Diane to clean up the mess from the night before.

While we look on in awe at the transformative election about to be held--a probable Dem sweep of all the congressional seats and an Obama NM and national win--it is natural that the Denish story plays out on deep background. But it is there, a reminder that Election Day 2008 may not conclude this most profound of political years, but only mark its beginning.

OTHER ANGLES

Maybe Richardson would delay any departure from the state, conscious that ducking out in the middle of a money crunch calling for tough stewardship would look bad? Probably not. The spin would be that things are not as bad as they may appear and that the steps he has taken leave the state on solid footing. Also, Richardson is said to be anxious to leave. Another 60 day legislative session--this one the most confrontational yet--is not a prospect he relishes.

WHAT ABOUT A NEW #2?
Balderas & Ortiz y Pino
The Alligators have pegged State Auditor Hector Balderas as Denish's likely pick as lieutenant governor if she were to succeed Bill. But first a constitutional amendment allowing her to pick a light guv must be approved by voters November 4th. It probably will be. But the story doesn't end there. Balderas, elected as state auditor in 2006 after a historic scandal in the state Treasurer's office, may be better off staying put, say some top politicos. With the financial carnage just beginning, why would Balderas give up a safe spot and risk getting involved in what could be a political nightmare? Well, because it might make him governor someday. But maybe not.

The Denish camp finds Balderas appealing because he is from the Spanish North, heart of the Democratic Party and where Denish is not at her strongest. But some politicos speculate that while a Hispanic light guv for Denish is a political necessity, they would not necessarily have to come from the North. For example, ABQ State Senator Jerry Ortiz y Pino, 65, is seen as someone who might get a look for the slot. He would be a gray beard with no ambition for the state's top job. He would help with Hispanics and also help Di keep the liberal wing of the party under control.

Blog readers at the Hillary Clinton rally at Sunland Park in the deep south Saturday noted that Denish rattled off more than just a sentence in Spanish, prompting locals to ask if she is fluent. She has said in the past she is not, but works on it. If she becomes governor, she will be hearing language few others are privy to.

TINSLEY THROWS TOWEL
Ed Tinsley
Why throw good money after bad? That seems to be the decision of GOP southern NM congressional candidate Ed Tinsley who has canceled his TV buy on the major ABQ and El Paso network affiliates for the last week of the campaign. The Gators are gaming it this way: As of mid-October Tinsley, owner of the K-BOB's steak restaurant chain, had about $570,000 in the bank. He bought $50k in TV time, leaving him about $520,000. Tinsley has loaned himself $500,000 for the general election. Now he has half a million in his account, but isn't going to spend it on TV? What's he going to spend it on? How about repaying that loan to himself? And he needs to do it before Election Day because after that, we're told, federal rules state that you can only retire a personal loan of up to $250,000. Speaking of which, Tinsley loaned himself about $230,000 for his primary so he will be able to retire that debt with fund-raising after the election.

All told, Tinsley, who appears headed toward defeat at the hands of Hobbs oil man Harry Teague, stands to recover all of the personal money he put on the line. Now we're not saying Ed is definitely going to do all this, but it not happening seems as likely as seeing fresh fish on the K-Bob's menu.

Tinsley may not have been the best candidate in the world, but he's not a bad businessman. Polling in the district, including some conducted by us in Dona Ana County, basically shows the race out of reach. Tinsley could be accused of being "Quitter Ed" if he makes a stab at political office in the future, but it does not appear Ed Tinsley has a political future in mind. And, yes. We are changing our rating on the southern race from toss-up to lean Democrat.

HEINRICH VS. WHITE

We checked in on the KOAT-TV debate Sunday afternoon between Dem Martin Heinrich and Republican Darren White for the ABQ US House seat. Both candidates continue to cling to their party's boilerplate, giving few, if any signs of independence in what is touted as an independent minded district. They have both campaigned actively and worked up a sweat doing it, but the intellectual exercise for the two newcomers to national politics seems to have been limited to memorizing their party's positions.

White and Heinrich have improved in their public speaking, as you might expect since they are doing it on a daily basis. Still, their TV demeanors need work. White, the Bernalillo County Sheriff, seems too hot for TV, bobbing his head and gesticulating in a way that the camera exaggerates. He seems too caffeinated. As we've written previously, Heinrich, the former city councilor, seems a bit stiff and robotic. He needs to lower his head while looking into the camera, instead of leading with his chin, which makes his eyes seem to close. The state GOP, in an especially cruel mailer, likened Heinrich to a weasel, trying to intimate a physical resemblance to the creature. That was weird. No wonder Martin says he is restricting his two toddlers' campaign media viewing to public TV.

Heinrich's style more closely resembles the historic template for political success here. His low-key, not-to-be-rattled persona recalls that of former ABQ Mayor Harry Kinney, former ABQ GOP Congressman Manuel Lujan and current Dem US Senator Jeff Bingaman. White has that side as well, but being behind in the polls he believes he has to attack harshly which has given Heinrich an advantage by allowing him to play Mr. Laid Back. That's what many ABQ area voters seem to prefer.

LET'S PLAY PRESS

Heinrich has also carried the day in the earned media department, with the Journal failing to rouse itself over White and there being little other mainstream press coverage. That's better for Heinrich because he is ahead. Angela Barranco, a Capitol Hill staffer for Rep. Joseph Crowley, is handling communications for Heinrich. Stephen Schatz, who has worked on the Hill for GOP Rep. Dan Burton, was imported to handle White. Schatz has been shy. We have heard little from him, but we still broke just about every major development in the White campaign in the past year. Well, not only us, but those not-to-be-denied Alligators who just don't seem to pay much attention to candidate news releases or "here today gone tomorrow" press secretaries and campaign managers.

Insiders say White's managers, Sara Lister and Heidi Fuller, are wary of blog coverage, believing we've been too tough on various Republican factions who they've toiled for. Hey ladies, you don't have to worry about us, we've shot this thing down the middle; it's the voters in those polls showing Heinrich winning who are a lot more scary.

REP. ED SANDOVAL TARGETED

Late word that the state Republicans are playing hard in the re-election race of longtime Dem State Representative Ed Sandoval. He was first elected back in '82. Insiders say it appears his R challenger, Ron Toya of Jemez Pueblo, has been in the mailboxes multiple times, hitting Sandoval who is chairman of the House Taxation and Revenue Committee. Sandoval's support of the Rail Runner and Toya's claim that he is unfriendly toward business are key items. We are told it appears at least $50,000 has gone into the race from Toya's end, counting his own campaign money and that of state R's. Why? Apparently the re-elect numbers for Sandoval were low going into the race. The tide is now going Democratic and it appears Sandoval will survive in this ABQ North Valley and West Side district which is 56% Dem and 26% R.

Sandoval, 61, is one of a number of longtime reps who in the past have coasted with easy re-elects. But the times are changing and incumbents of all stripes are coming under scrutiny. If they don't think they have to work anymore, voters notice. Voters rejected State Rep. Dan Silva and State Sen. Shannon Robinson in the Dem primary election. Here's more on Sandoval vs. Toya. Let's keep our eye on the Sandoval race when we get together Election Night on KANW 89.1 FM.

WHERE'S THE JOURNAL?

E-mailers ask where were the candidate endorsements in the state's largest newspaper Sunday? The election is just about over and by this time we usually hear from the ABQ Journal. Maybe they aren't too pleased with the choices they have. By coming with endorsements so late, the candidates are unlikely to be able to use them in their advertising. Maybe that's fine with the Journal. Meantime, a mild surprise up in heavily GOP Farmington where the Daily Times endorsed Obama. This, after they gave the nod to Republican Steve Pearce for US Senate. The state's other large newspapers, the Santa Fe New Mexican and the Las Cruces Sun-News, both endorsed Obama.

CROWD CONTROL

In our first draft Saturday night, we wrote that the Obama rally was the biggest political gathering in state history, but after talking to insiders we switched that to the "largest in ABQ history." They recalled President Clinton's 1996 visit to Las Cruces. One of them claimed that visit attracted upwards of 50,000. But we could not find any archive info on it in the papers or on the Net. But KOB-TV's Valerie Castro reported Sunday that the KOB-TV archives show the Clinton visit drew just 20,000. So that seems to settle it. The Obama visit was indeed the biggest political rally in New Mexico history. And he set another record over the weekend, holding the largest political rally ever in Denver, where 100,000 turned out to see him.

And what about the TV stations saying Obama attracted 35,000 and the AP saying it was 45,000? Turns out the fire marshall gave the 35,000 estimate for those on the field. The AP count included people outside the field perimeter and who could not get in. We told KOB-TV last night a number of those 45,000 were curiosity seekers, but it was still a whale of a crowd and reminded us that not only is Obama an historical figure, but that NM's population has crossed the two million mark.

CROSSING THE LINE?

Did the Obama campaign cross the line when it came to dealing with the lines at their big Saturday night rally at Johnson Field at the University of New Mexico? The question arises because people at the huge event said Obama workers were going down the long line telling those stuck in it that if they agreed to go into the Student Union Building and cast an early vote they would get to the head of the line and also into the VIP section which provided a better view of Obama's speech. The campaign can argue the rally was free and they weren't offering anything of value. Obama probably doesn't feel that way. He values his speeches, very much.

DEATH CLAIMS TONY HILLERMAN

Often when someone dies you hear that "everyone knew him and everyone liked him." But in Tony Hillerman's case the cliché is true. Maybe he would roll in his grave hearing that such unimaginative writing was being employed to describe his passing. But probably not. Hillerman, one of America's legendary fiction writers and an astute student and player of our beloved La Politica, served as our academic adviser when we started out covering politics at the NM Daily Lobo at UNM in the early to mid 70's. He never did much criticizing, just a lot of encouraging. Hillerman died Sunday at an ABQ hospital. He was 83.

Hillerman, a native of Oklahoma, was teaching journalism when we knew him best, just after experiencing his first taste of big time literary success with the novel "Dance Hall of the Dead." It would be one of his many best-selling mysteries set on the Navajo reservation. But the Hillerman I knew was rooted in the newspaper world of UPI and the Santa Fe New Mexican where, in the 50's and 60's, he carved out a reputation for excellence and intrepidness. He loved the newspaper game. I think he lived a long life, in part, because he learned the secret of New Mexico. After vowing to stay around, you must learn to laugh at its politics and actually take joy in its utter outlandishness.

There will be much written in the days ahead about this towering figure. The ABQ Journal's Jim Belshaw played poker with Hillerman for decades. We're sure he, along with other notables, will have worthy rembrances. My fellow students and I will fondly remember Hillerman for his guidance in those most tender of years when criticism, if not handled judiciously, can scald and stunt. Again, the clichés come to mind, but as I write of his death this late Sunday evening, they speak the truth:

Tony Hillerman was a great man. His was an important life.

E-mail your news and comments.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2008
Not for reproduction without permission of the author