For example, in the recent campaign she spent several hours on the radio pounding the character and policies of Dem Rep. Martin Heinrich. Also, her 2008 run against Republican Steve Pearce for the US Senate nomination, which Pearce won, was divisive within the GOP. It alienated her, in particular, from southern conservatives who are the backbone of Martinez's base.

Wilson, a former cabinet secretary for Children, Youth and Families under GOP Governor Gary Johnson, says she is not interested in a job with Martinez following the transition. That will take some of the sting out of Wilson's critics. Besides, Santa Fe probably has room for only one Queen Bee.

Wilson, who had a conservative US House voting record, still worked hard to cultivate centrist voters in the ABQ swing district. She has the capability to be a uniter, not a a divider. The best advice she might get right now is to use this honeymoon period to look for professionals who are politically friendly to the Governor-elect and not let the campaign arm push her (and Martinez) into certain appointments.

Wilson may not be Governor, but by screening who gets in she is going to have a major say in shaping the face and voice of state government over the next four years. She is a player and will not be a figure-head. If you're looking for a state job, she will be the go-to gal, as seen in the announcement:

In the coming days and weeks, we will focus on finding individuals who will work day and night to deliver on Susana’s vision of a new direction for New Mexico...

That's what you call the keys to the kingdom. Don't be surprised to see former Wilson and Senator Domenici staffers moving into offices that will be soon left vacant as a result of the dropping of the axe.

But first things first. Looking for a job in this job-starved economy? Here's the Web site to send in your resume.

THE IRONY

There is some irony in Heather becoming transition chief for Susana. She was considered the front-runner for the GOP Guv nomination all the way until late October of last year when she announced she would not seek the nod. That paved the way for Martinez to take the nomination.

We don't think Wilson regrets her decision. She is much more a Washington creature than one of Santa Fe. And that also means she's not going to get sentimental when it comes to cutting the budget. Those opposing her in that regard have a formidable opponent.

SENATE 2012

Bingaman
Wilson's appointment will cause more speculation on whether she will seek the 2012 GOP US Senate nomination and the right to take on Dem US Senator Jeff Bingaman. She has an eye on it, but the Senator's standing in the public opinion polls will have a lot to do with it. Also, as transition chair, Wilson will have some ownership of the Martinez administration. That's good if good things happen but bad if bad things happen. Whatever, the transition gives Wilson the opportunity to buff up her image statewide.

Martinez could have gone outside of politics--as has often been done--and selected a business or community leader type to lead the transition. ABQ Mayor Berry did that when he chose businessman Sherman McCorkle to head his transition last year.In 2002, Big Bill selected former NM attorney general and his personal lawyer, Paul Bardacke, to co-chair his transition along with Ed Romero, former US Ambassador to Spain.

Wilson may not sport much of a private sector background, but she has close ties to the major state business leaders as well as key GOP legislators. And even some Democrats pronounced themselves satisfied with her selection.

"Good choice," reacted Jamie Koch, University of New Mexico Regent, former state Dem Party Chairman and longtime friend of Diane Denish when told of the choice.

But another high-ranking Dem on background declared of Wilson: "She is going to take an axe to the place. She doesn't like Santa Fe."

Side notes: The Wilson appointment alleviates some of the concern about Martinez ignoring the ABQ area...Martinez gets credit for not delaying the transition announcement into next week. Uncertainty is not the message you want to send...How about that suggestion we made that Lt. Governor Sanchez head the transition? Hey, we didn't mean to put a hex on the guy.

THE BOTTOM LINES

Election Week around here is kind of like Christmas week in the civilian world. You're running around making last minute preparations, hoping every thing will be perfect, but not getting to uptight when they inevitably don't. Having said that, the week was intense, but gratifying. We hope we gave you a better understanding of the election as well as a bit of fun. We know our many experts on our Election Night broadcast did. They included John Wertheim, Greg Payne, Larry Larranaga, Lenton Malry, Bruce Donisthorpe, Harry Pavlides, Steve Cabiedes and Tim Keller.

And thanks to civilian turned reporter Judith Moyer who manned government center in downtown ABQ where the Bernalillo County results were posted. For the first time since 1988, when we started to anchor the radio coverage, we weren't going to staff downtown. After all, it's all on computers now and the legendary snafus of the past in getting the Bernco results posted seem to be a thing of the past.

But the election gods were watching over us and Judith showed up and cheerily agreed to the downtown beat. Wouldn't you know it when the critical early and absentee vote was posted downtown, it failed to show up on computer screens. The link was not working. We were on the phone with County Clerk Maggie Toulouse-Oliver when the glitch occurred. We turned her into a reporter and snagged the early vote for the Guv and congressional races. Maggie then ran off to quickly fix the glitch (it was straightened out in a matter of minutes) and Judith tried to read the results in key races to us and our radio audience as they quickly scrolled by on screens.

It was kind of like that old "I Love Lucy" episode where Lucy works on the assembly line packing chocolates, but the line speeds up so much she starts stuffing herself with the chocolates so they won't get by her. Fun stuff and one of those election moments we sure we will savor when we retire our microphone...

EVEN MORE BOTTOM LINES

Thanks to the ABQ Kiwanis Club for having us over on Election Eve to handicap the races and talk La Politica. Many of them are disillusioned with the tone of politics, but they love America and New Mexico and will never give up on them...

And a tip of the hat to the campaigns and elections class of Professor Tim Krebs at the University of New Mexico for putting us through our paces at a Thursday morning analysis session. I can't tell you what great satisfaction it gives me to have so many young readers. Every time I hear or meet with them, I am more confident than before that they will succeed in improving the world left to them. I hope we are doing our best for them...

And then there's KKOB-AM talk radio and the lion's den maintained by Bob Clark of morning show fame. We kicked the can around Thursday morning with his many listeners. They, too, gave us much food for thought and we thank Bob for the fun exchange.

This Sunday on KOB-TV we'll sit down with the aforementioned Tim Krebs, political reporter Stuart Dyson and news anchor Nicole Brady to take a final look at tCampaign 2010 as it heads quickly toward the history books. If you have a moment, the program will air at 10 a.m.

Finally, congratulations to the winners and condolences to the losers of this election. In the winning column--Susana Martinez, John Sanchez, Martin Heinrich, Steve Pearce, Ben Ray Lujan, Gary King and Dianna Duran. We wish them all the best as they work to better the lives of those who live in and love this wonderful state. And the condolences go to Diane Denish, Brian Colon, Jon Barela, Harry Teague, Tom Mullins, Matt Chandler and Mary Herrera.

It should be acknowledged that in Lieutenant Governor Diane Denish we lose a tireless public servant who has made a real difference in improving the lives of families here--and we mean a real difference. She has served honorably for decades. Thanks, Diane.

Now it is off to the future as a new chapter begins in the never-ending book of our beloved La Politica.

I'm Joe Monahan reporting to you from Albuquerque.

E-mail your news and comments.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2010
Not for reproduction without permission of the author

Governor-elect Susana Martinez did not exactly hit the ground running on her first day. She gave a couple of TV interviews in Las Cruces and then jetted up to ABQ for meetings (no, not in the state jet she maligned during the campaign) but there was no announcement of who would head her transition team. Big Bill named Chief of Staff Brian Condit as his liaison with Martinez but he needs someone to liaison with. Meanwhile, the big question in the state is: "Who do I give my resume to?"

In her victory speech Martinez painted New Mexico as a deeply troubled state, but that urgency was not matched on her first day after victory. She has a little wiggle room here, but not much. Without firm direction, the job-seekers and power players will start sowing dissent--if they aren't already--and the citizenry will get the wrong signal. Best to get command and control publicly established now before the natives get restless?

And will there be a communications director anytime soon? Not having one during the campaign is one thing, but going without one as you prepare to assume official power is another. How's that supposed to work?

Martinez might have put some fear in the hearts of the Santa Fe establishment Wednesday when she told TV news that she wants to audit all state agencies for "waste" as she looks for the hundreds of millions needed to balance the state budget. She also said she is not in favor of across the board spending cuts like those recently used by Big Bill and the Legislature to realize savings. She says some agencies deserve less funding than others. She's setting herself up for some tough decisions there, but that's why she's got the job. State department directors have been put on notice.

How about Lt. Governor-elect John Sanchez as head of the transition team for Susana? He is a former state legislator with a lot of successful business experience and contacts. The Light Guv usually doesn't have much to do but the top transition post looks to be right up John's alley.

Big Bill will exit like a pro. He came with a newspaper column promising "a seamless transition." He was excoriated by Martinez during the campaign, but Richardson is not going to let anything get personal. The Guv-to-be can learn from the example.

The gain of eight seats in the state House by the R's was the talk of the political community Wednesday. Will Dem House Speaker Ben Lujan survive? Will he resign to make room for Rep. Kenny Martinez? If he did, could Martinez get the votes to be speaker from the Dem caucus? Will Lujan bend to the will of the R's to keep power? Will a handful of conservative Dems get together with the R's form a conservative coalition similar to what exists in the Senate and that was last seen in the House in the mid-80's? Or will the R's decide not to challenge the Speaker, setting him up to blockade Martinez and make him look obstructionist?

No one expects Lujan to bow out, but his survival skills are now going to be put to the ultimate test. The old warrior is 74 and thought he had seen it all, but in this game you're never done.

On TV, the speaker challenged the Governor-elect over where she will cut the state budget since she has taken Medicaid and public education off the table. At least in the initial going, it doesn't sound like Speaker Ben is giving any ground.

We're told that the 33 R's that will now be in the 70 member House is the most since the Great Depression. If someone knows different, let us know.

Martinez backers were quick to tell everyone how the Republican district attorney was so adept at attracting Democratic votes in her home county. Maybe for DA, but not so much for Governor. Martinez barely beat Denish in her home county--51.7% to 48.0%. The county is 49% Democratic so that is not a bad performance, but not an outstanding one. Also, Dona Ana turnout, as it usually always does, lagged in turnout. About 46% of registered voters cast ballots, while statewide some 52% of registered voters made it to the polls. Of the 33 counties, it appears Catron County on the west side gave Susana her largest margin of victory. She scored a whopping 77.5% there or 1,467 votes. Di appeared to have her best run in Taos County in the north, garnering 70.4% or 8,349.

Diane Denish's campaign manager predicted our Alligators would be retired to Florida after Denish pulled out an upset victory, but it didn't happen and it will be the manager moving on and the Gators continuing their watch over La Politica. And with good reason.

The Alligators pounded the table for Denish to move to a more populist stance--and use clear language when doing so. She didn't, so when it came time to activate hard-core Dem voters--liberals, working class Hispanics and the Democrats who don't attend $1,000 a plate fund-raising dinners, Di was left in the lurch. But not Rep. Martin Heinrich. He called on his liberal SE Heights base as well as working class Hispanics in the Valley to pull him out of the fire. They rallied for him, but when they got in the voting booth many turned their noses up at Diane. She trailed Heinrich badly with the Obama '08 voters who Heinrich brought back. We know that from our precinct-by-precinct coverage. Why? Because she had no message for them.

The results immediately called into question the philosophical direction of Santa Fe and set off speculation about possible power struggles in the 70 member state House which now goes from 45 Dems and 25 R's to 37 Dems and 33 R's.

The newly conservative hue of the lower chamber now closely resembles the state Senate where a coalition of Republicans and conservative Dems hold sway.

A bloody budget battle to address a $260 million deficit and probably more may still be in the cards, but Martinez's ability to manage it was given a major boost by an electorate hungry for the change that she promised.

The ousting of Herrera by Republican Dianna Duran puts the SOS office in the hands of the R's for the first time since 1930's. But besides the historical implication, the office plays a role in redistricting of the legislature and congressional seats. That will be undertaken in late 2011 and Martinez's hand is strengthened with Duran at the helm.

DEMS CONSOLATION

Win or lose, Democrats love to party and they didn't have to make up a reason to pop the champagne open around 11 p.m. Election Night. ABQ Congressman Martin Heinrich managed a hard-fought re-election win against Republican Jon Barela. When all was said, Heinrich came in with a margin of about 51.6 to 48.4. With Richardson and Denish gone, he now climbs further up the state political ladder. Video of his speech is here.

Heinrich noted that the district he took in 2008 had been previously held for 40 years by Republicans. He was the first to take it two years ago and he is the first Dem to win re-election to it.

As expected, Steve Pearce reclaimed the southern House seat he held before giving it up to run for the US Senate in 2008. He handily defeated Dem US Rep. Harry Teague inching closer to 56 percent of the vote to Harry's 44%.

Up North, Ben Ray Lujan will go back to Washington for a second US House term. He beat back Republican Tom Mullins 56.6 to 43.4. He would have liked it higher, but in this anti-incumbent atmosphere, it was a good performance. Mullins didn't hurt himself any and if the tea party movement has any legs, we could see him running with it.

More on the Governor and congressional races below...

How about that Dianne Duran performance? The Republican candidate for SOS came up the largest vote total of any statewide candidate in a competitive race--including Susana Martinez! The Alamogordo area state Senator was scoring 57.7 percent of the vote against Herrera. Martinez in early morning returns was running at 53.4 percent.

Herrera was engulfed in a number of ethics controversies that caused her downfall. But analysts on our KANW-FM radio broadcast Election Night said it was opposition from county clerks outside of ABQ that really helped do her in. They made sure negative news about the SOS that might have been confined to the ABQ media market spread far and wide.

Attorney General Gary King immediately becomes a possible 2012 Dem Guv nominee as a result of his re-election win over Republican Matt Chandler. King, 55, was being held to 53.5 percent to Chandler's 46.5 percent. He would have liked 55%, but Chandler mounted an aggressive and well-executed negative campaign against King. Chandler, 34, may have opened up any number of opportunities for himself within the state GOP.

State Auditor Hector Balderas and State Treasurer James Lewis were both looking for bragging rights over who led the Democratic ticket in this difficult year. Balderas was a re-elected to a second four year term and was running at 55% over R foe Errol Chavez. But Lewis was getting 55.2 percent. The final vote canvass may have to settle that one.

The closest Election Night contest wasn't between candidates. It was over Higher Education Bond D which was winning by only two-tenths of a percent--50.1% to 49.9%. Did bad publicity out of the University of New Mexico in recent months hurt?

Former Democratic Land Commissioner Ray Powell is back. He beat back a challenge from Republican Matt Rush 52.2 to 47.8. That was close because Powell did no TV. Rush did.

We collaborated with veteran GOP analyst Bruce Donisthorpe in putting together for you analysis of all the major races. First, the Governor:

Martinez won 25 of the state’s 33 counties, and helped Republican legislators pick up eight new seats in the State House. She rolled up big victories in the South and Eastern counties by gathering over 70% of the vote in Chaves, Eddy, Lea, Curry, Roosevelt and Lincoln. In the Northwest, Martinez captured 69% of the vote in San Juan County.

With the big Republican Party counties in the bag, all Martinez had to do was to run competitively in the Albuquerque Metro area, which she did by winning Bernalillo County (51%-49%), Valencia County (60%-40%), Sandoval County (57%-43%) and Torrance County (67%-33%). Her outstanding performance in the Albuquerque suburbs dragged in five GOP legislative seats in the Duke City region.

Martinez took her home county (Dona Ana) by a 52%-48% margin, while Denish captured Grant, McKinley and Cibola counties. Perhaps the biggest frustration for the Denish campaign was the inability to gain traction outside of the Northern Hispanic Counties. However, Denish’s margin in the North was curtailed by the Martinez campaign’s ability to attract Hispanic supporters

Denish’s largest victory was in Taos County, where she captured 71% of the vote. In Santa Fe County, Denish won with 69% of the vote. However, Martinez cut into Denish’s margin in the North by running competitively in Rio Arriba, San Miguel and Mora counties with over 40% of the vote. As we said, Martinez's Hispanic background showed its deep appeal.

HEINRICH VS. BARELA

Incumbent Democratic Representative Martin Heinrich showed voters why elections (and not polls) matter by winning the race in a classic election-day fashion.

Though Republican Jon Barela won the Bernalillo County absentee/mail ballots by 2,100 votes, Heinrich took the Early In-Person voting by a margin of 3,100 votes, giving him a 1,000 vote advantage in the County heading into the election day precinct vote count, which often favors Democratic candidates. And this time it was no different as Heinrich won the in-person election day ballots by a margin of almost 9,000 votes giving him an insurmountable lead for Barela to overcome in the suburbs.

Barela had healthy wins in Torrance and Santa Fe County precincts that are in the district, but it wasn’t enough to close the gap as Heinrich was re-elected with 51.6% of the vote and a 6,800 vote margin over his Republican challenger.

TEAGUE VS. PEARCE

Incumbent Congressman Harry Teague was elected in 2008 with an outstanding performance in Dona Ana County and strong campaigns in Southeast New Mexico. Challenger Steve Pearce made it clear early in the evening that if Teague was going to be re-elected, he needed to look for votes in the western side of the district as he piled up large majorities in Otero, Lincoln, Chaves, Eddy and Lea counties. Pearce won the east-side counties by a margin of 25-thousand votes. That was more than enough to overcome Teague’s 5,800 vote win in Dona Ana County and his 1161 vote win in Grant County. Pearce piled on by winning Valencia County by over 1100 votes and ran his total numbers to almost 56% of the vote--the exact same margin Teague won by 2 years ago.

Home to one of the most Democratic voting districts in the nation, the 3rd congressional district again showed why Republicans may never take this seat in a general election--even in a Republican year! Incumbent Congressman Ben Ray Lujan, Jr. was re-elected with 57% of the vote by securing huge majorities the Northern Hispanic counties, where he won by over 33-thousand votes. Lujan also ran strong in McKinley County, winning by over 7,500 votes.

The Republican challenger--Tom Mullins--ran strong in his home county (San Juan) where he won almost 2/3 of the vote and defeated the Congressman by almost 11,000 thousand votes. Mullins also ran strong on the East side counties, winning Roosevelt, Curry, Quay and Union counties by comfortable margins. Mullins also won in Sandoval and Los Alamos counties.

STATE HOUSE RACES

Republicans picked up eight seats in the New Mexico State House of Representatives, which included 5 new seats in the Duke City suburbs, where Gov.-elect Martinez won by strong margins. Republican re-captured two state house seats lost in the 2008 Obama tidal wave--District 23, held by Ben Rodefer (D-Corrales) who was defeated by David Doyle by a 54%-46% margin; and in District 30, held by Karen Gianinni (D-Albuquerque) who was defeated by Nate Gentry, by a 58%-42% edge.

In Sandoval County, incumbent Rep. Jack Thomas (D-Rio Rancho) lost to Republican challenger Tim Lewis by a 61%-39% margin.

In Valencia County, Republicans picked up two Democratic seats as David Chavez defeated Andrew Barreras in District 7, by a 54%-46% tally, while Alonzo Baldonado defeated Julian Luna by a 54%-46% margin.

In Dona Ana County, District 37 GOP challenger Terry McMillan defeated Dem incumbent Jeff Steinborn by a 52%-48% edge, while District 53 Republican challenger Ricky Little defeated Dem incumbent Nathan Cote by a 53%-47% margin. And, in Eddy County, long-term District 55 Dem incumbent John Heaton was defeated by GOP challenger Cathryn Brown, 52%-48%.

Republican incumbents dodged two bullets aimed by the D's at Jeanette Wallace (Los Alamos, Santa Fe) who won with 51% of the vote; and Chaves County State Rep. Candy Ezzell who was easily re-elected with 65% of the vote. Republicans came close to defeating Albuquerque North Valley State Rep. Bill O’Neill, but he was re-elected with 51% of the vote. Dem State Rep. Mimi Stewart was also re-elected with 51% of the vote, despite a strong Republican challenge.

Here's the New Mexican wrap on the Guv race and the same from the NM Independent and The AP.

It appears at least 600,000 New Mexicans voted, a turnout of about 52 percent of the state's registered voters.

Thanks to our entire radio team for their Election Night efforts.

Republican Susana Martinez will break with tradition and be in Las Cruces, not ABQ, tonight. Her party begins at 5:30 at the Hotel Encanto. Admission is free, but online registration is required. Credentials will be handed out to each guest upon arrival. And after you go through all that, you still have to pay for your own booze.

The "bold change" that Martinez incessantly promises (a phrase we would bet our golf clubs comes from focus group hocus pocus) is actually her personality, not her policies. That became clear the day she pledged no cuts to Medicaid or the public schools. Her gender and her ethnicity have exercised a powerful charm, even as she downplays both. Her middle name of "Not Bill Richardson" sealed the deal.

We are now concluding eight years of bold change by the current Governor and Legislature. For better or worse this change is a Spaceport, a RailRunner, increased teacher salaries, rebate checks to New Mexico households from what was a state surplus and widespread state investment in business start-ups.

If she wins, as the polls indicate she will, Martinez, at least for her first two years, will be in charge of downsizing state government while not dismantling the safety net that is essential to hundreds of thousands citizens in one of the nation's most poverty-ridden states. That sounds more painful than bold, but pain doesn't make a very good campaign slogan.

OIL AND VINEGAR

Veteran campaign observers like Democrat Mike Santullo of talk radio fame marvel at how Martinez has refrained from mentioning the Legislature during her long run even though it will be key to any of her plans.

If Martin Heinrich doesn't beat Republican challenger Jon Barela a long line will immediately form to take on Barela in two years. But first things first. The ABQ congressional seat still sways in the wind this Election Eve. We saw this in 2006 when the Wilson-Madrid US House race ended in almost perfect equilibrium with Republican Wilson finally winning by less than 900 votes.

However, the Journal poll showing Heinrich lagging Barela 49 to 46 is causing debate in the political community. Some recall that the Journal had Patricia Madrid ahead of Heather Wilson by three points in their final '06 survey. At five percent, the margin of error is also wide.

Republican Greg Payne thinks Barela is on his way to a narrow win after the Journal poll Sunday showed him at 49 to Heinrich's s 46. But with election day voting traditionally benefiting the Dems, it is premature to write Representative Heinrich's obituary.

Dem analyst Harry Pavlides picks up on that theme and claims Heinrich will take the narrow victory based on carrying the Election Day voting and by keeping Barela in check in the early voting.

FiveThirtyEight Forecasts in the New York Times projects a Heinrich win of 51.2 to 48.8. They put the incumbent's chances at retaining the seat at 65.4 percent. That is down after the Journal poll, but still well ahead of Barela's chances which they put at 34.6. The forecast is based on polling, expert forecasts, past election returns and other indicators.

We expect early in-person voting and absentee ballot totals to be released in Bernalillo County shortly after 7 p.m. My analysts say Barela needs to be ahead in that combined vote, as Heather Wilson was in 2006, if he is to carry the day. Join us tomorrow night on KANW 89.1 FM beginning at 6:30 p.m. as we monitor this one like a dog eyeing a bone

STATE OF THIS RACE

There is much nervousness among R's over Heinrich-Barela as they pound the pavement to boost voter turnout. That's hard to do when so many of your faithful have already cast early ballots. That makes them look to the undecided independent voters and target last-hour appeals to them.

Heinrich will work it around-the-clock today and tomorrow in the heavily Democratic South Valley and his home base of the SE Heights where he started as an ABQ city councilor.

The Barela camp think their man won a late boost from the Saturday night KRQE-TV debate. Several of his supporters told us Barela "looked congressional." The Heinrich camp think Barela's attack on a local bar that received a federal small business loan has backfired. They cite this KOB-TV news report and an ABQ Journal fact check.

Since the Governor's race appears to be gone, both major parties would be wise to focus their last-minute efforts on this juicy congressional prize. If Barela loses, the seat may be gone for years and years. Heinrich will have solidified himself as the ABQ congressman. But if Barela wins, the R's will be in great shape with a GOP Governor presiding over the all-important redistricting in 2011. A Barela win would also set up a Republican frenzy to take out Senator Jeff Bingaman in 2012.

Of the state's three new congressmen elected in 2008, Heinrich has been most effective in establishing a political identity, partly because he is in the ABQ media market. But two years is not a long time and this race starkly shows why it is during his first-term that a congressman is at his most vulnerable. Add to that a no-end-in-sight recession and you've got double-trouble.

WHAT ABOUT BEN RAY?

The Journal did not poll the northern congressional seat held by Dem US Rep. Ben Ray Lujan. That omission is notable because Republicans are on the move elsewhere and Lujan's foe, Tom Mullins, is no exception. Lujan is expected to win in the heavy Dem district, but several readers here are wondering where the poll is:

Lujan is probably going to win, but he's considered at least somewhat vulnerable by observers up here. And the Journal doesn't even bother to poll the race? Why would they do that, if not to convey to Democratic Nortenos the impression that the race is a mortal lock for Lujan, hoping thereby to depress the turnout.

Mullins will, most likely, still lose but the massive Norteno vote that Denish needs won't materialize either. I'm curious, Joe. Did the Journal poll NM-3 when Richardson was walloping his opponents back in the day, or when Udall was kicking butt up here? If so, why not now?

We don't know about a Norteno conspiracy, but the paper did endorse Mullins, foregoing their usual endorsement of the Dem candidate in that district. Not polling the 3rd CD was an oversight the paper probably regrets.

ITS HAPPENED BEFORE

Martinez's ability to cherry pick votes in Hispanic northern precincts and elsewhere isn't a first for a Republican. Manuel Lujan did it for 20 years as an ABQ congressman. He held the seat from '69 to '89. When Lujan started out the district consisted of the entire north. His Hispanic roots there had many Dems crossing over to him. When he got to Washington, he emphasized constituent services, not his conservative votes. After 1980, when the district shrank to only the ABQ area he kept the same game plan and routinely won re-election with 60 percent of the vote.

Denish and the Dems will take it to the wire, hoping against hope:

And from Di's campaign to her supporters:

Don't let the Albuquerque Journal and the pundits scare you this Halloween. Diane and Brian are going to win this race – but they’ll need your tireless help to do it.

And from the state Dem Party:

Consider this: Going into the weekend, 8,000 more Democrats than Republicans cast early and absentee votes...Combine this with the fact that our latest (Governor) poll had this race tied (45-46), and we know this will be a very competitive race. Your vote is truly going to make a difference....

We've gone round and round on this with our many readers in oil and gas country. We don't see the direct link between the jobs and the rule. What we do see is a continued bear market in natural gas prices causing the havoc. Still, if people are hurting this bad, we're willing to listen some more.

SKIPPING OUT

From the email bag:

Hi Joe: Susana's been catching some heat from you and others for skipping out on newspaper-endorsement interviews with two weekly alternative newspapers--The Santa Fe Reporter and The Weekly Alibi in Albuquerque. Yet no reporter mentions how Denish has consistently refused invitations to be interviewed on 770 KKOB AM, specifically Bob Clark's morning show.

Okay, we've now mentioned it. The talk station strongly backs GOP candidates so Denish's team backed away.

By the way we'll be on Bob Clark's Thursday morning broadcast at 9 to analyze Tuesday's election results.

Another media note: Martinez also refused to interview with Lorene Mills of public TV's "Report From Santa Fe" and also turned down an appearance on KNME-TV's "In Focus."

However, Susana will appear regularly on the secret Webcam that Big Bill is planting in the Guv's office before he leaves. Email him for the address.

Se ya' on 89.1 FM today at 5...

This is the home of New Mexico politics.

We could be in for a cliff-hanger Tuesday night or a comfortable Barela win if the momentum stays with him in the final hours. The Journal did not release the crosstabs on how the Heinrich-Barela race was going among those who have already voted.

"The race is too close to call," said veteran GOP lobbyist Bruce Donisthorpe who has also conducted New Mexico polling the last several cycles. "It's a turnout game now and that's why both parties have been so focused on that in recent days."

We've had the race lean Dem, but it now moves to toss-up. The Dems are going to have to fire up their base for Tuesday to pull it out. The R's and angry independents are already on fire and voting.

In 2006, then-GOP US Rep. Heather Wilson escaped defeat by less than 900 votes. Democrat Patrica Madrid nationalized that contest over the war in Iraq. Now comes Barela and his allies nationalizing this contest over federal spending and health care policy. In recent days, Barela has accused Heinrich of supporting stimulus funds for expansion of a local bar, a charge that Heinrich has said has no foundation. The ad seemed aimed at critical independent voters who are now trending toward Barela.

For his part, Heinrich earlier came with a powerful ad featuring a senior citizen exclaiming that she doesn't trust Barela on Social Security and fears he would vote to privatize the system. Barela denied the charge and found support in an endorsement from the ABQ Journal. Heinrich, however, leads among voters 65 and older--those who receive Social Security.

Heinrich is scoring 60 percent among Hispanics compared to Barela's 34 percent. A Democrat needs to do better.

The 2010 race appears to have been nationalized since the last Journal poll by the immense money from third party groups. Such groups supporting Barela have pumped in well over $2 million in TV and other media. Dem outside groups have backed Heinrich with much less--some $645,000, according to a recent Washington Post report.

Heinrich has worked hard to carved out a local record to immunize himself against attack on unpopular national Dem policies but is appears his campaign headquarters is getting sprayed by the anti-Obama, anti-Washington Tsunami that is taking Dems down coast-to-coast.