While you get a summer vacation (hopefully), our intrepid political candidates will spend their days with cell phones planted in their ears dialing for dollars--not dozing in the hammock. And the first fruits of their labor for the 2012 cycle continue to trickle in. Dem State Sen. Eric Griego, who announced his candidacy for the ABQ US House seat April 30, says he has raised $119,000 since then and has about $90,000 cash in the bank. He says more than 3,000 donors contributed, making an average contribution of $40.

By comparison, Republican Dan Lewis got in the race April 3 and reports raising $101,000 through June 30. Lewis raised his cash from 274 donors. Griego says his 3,000 donors shows his grassroots appeal. However, many of those contributors are from out-of-state donors who gave on-line on the ActBlue site. The Progressive Change Campaign Committee helped him raise about $31,000. Griego has won a lot of progressive endorsements early on from the likes of ABQ State Senators Jerry Ortiz y Pino and Cisco McSorley.

Longtime observers see these candidate cash levels as pretty low, but raising money in a down economy and competing for dollars with all the Senate candidates keeps the pressure on the House contenders in the early going. And it is doubly hard if you are not that well-known. In the April quarter of 2007, when he announced his first bid for the US House, then-ABQ City Councilor Martin Heinrich raised $180,000.

Former Mayor Marty Chavez, known for his past prodigious fund-raising, joined the race for the Dem nod June 29. So far, he and Griego are the only two Dem contenders for the seat being vacated by Dem Martin Heinrich who is running for Senate. Other possible GOP candidates include 2010 nominee Jon Barela and former State Rep. Janice Arnold-Jones.

MR. PRESIDENT

President Obama, you're putting your party's bread and butter issues--Social Security and Medicare--on the negotiating table in deficit talks and taking away the most powerful argument for keeping Dems in Congress? Maybe you're going to offer the R's a deal they can't accept; that this is play acting. But just in case, won't someone get a picture of FDR and show it to Barack.

(P.S. Does anyone have Hillary's phone number? She can still run, can't she?)

DI TALK

When 2010 Dem Guv nominee and former Lt. Gov Diane Denish endorsed Dem Senate contender Hector Balderas over Rep. Martin Heinrich, political watchers took notice with both positive and negative feedback.

Reader Michael Folsom in ABQ said:

This means that Martin hasn't got the establishment Dems all lined up. There is a real pent up demand in the Dem Party to finally nominate a Hispanic for this seat and frankly I can see lots of folks who left the ranch last year to support Martinez for Governor (because she was Hispanic) having a bit of buyers remorse and coming home to support Hector.

Reader Joe Campos in Bosque Farms sees it differently:

Joe, I don't know if Denish's endorsement will help or hinder Hector's candidacy, but in the long run it could come back to haunt him. During the governor debates between Denish and Martinez, one glaring mistake Densih made was to call Martinez a liar. This did not resonate well with the Hispanic voting block, imagine a white upper class woman calling a Latina a liar on TV! And as for Heinrich not helping Denish, he was smart not to go down the same road Denish/Colon traveled. At least Heinrich embraced the South Valley and other less well off communities....

And reader Mike Santullo, a veteran of La Politica, came with this:

Joe, While you adequately reviewed the background connection between Diane & Hector, you did not mention the fact that it was Diane that urged and supported Hector to give up his State Rep. seat and run for State Auditor. Also, in the early days of her gubernatorial campaign, you might remember that Di also encouraged Hector to run for Lieutenant Governor, so this honeymoon goes way, way back...

GOING WHERE?

Reader Michelle Meaders wonders about our blog this week in which we note the shrinking NM labor force and say folks are moving elsewhere:

Do we have any evidence that people are actually leaving here for work elsewhere? I thought there were discouraged workers who were dropping out of the labor force, by retiring early or going on disability or going back to school, but I hadn't heard of the other.

We don't have empirical evidence, Michelle, but we assume some people are moving elsewhere. The hardest hit sector during the NM crash has been home building. Construction employment in NM is the lowest it has been in decades. Those are not the kind of workers who are going to stay around looking for jobs here--one reason for our smaller work force.

We know of at least one worker who has left the area---politico James Hallinan who toiled as a PR maven for a number of prominent NM Dems, reports in:

Hello from the great state of Nevada. I recently accepted the position of communications director for the Kate Marshall for Nevada campaign. Kate is the current State Treasurer and the Democrat running in the Nevada Special Congressional Election for District 2. The open seat was vacated by the now Senator Dean Heller, who was appointed to replace John Ensign after his scandal by Governor Sandoval..

Okay, James, but don't put your campaign winnings in the slot machines up there.

THE BOTTOM LINES

This gem comes to us from veteran KOB-TV reporter Stuart Dyson as he reacts to the recent news of the arrest of former University of New Mexico president and political science professor F. Chris Garcia on charges of promoting prostitution:

"After all these years, we finally know what the "F" stands for!"

This is the home of New Mexico politics. Thanks for stopping by.

Reporting to you this week from La Jolla, CA. and Albuquerque, I'm Joe Monahan

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Looks like Governor Susana can chill some over the prospect of marauding hordes flooding across the border and scarfing up all the New Mexico driver's licenses they can cram into their wallets. The latest:

The extraordinary Mexican migration that delivered millions of illegal immigrants to the United States over the past 30 years has sputtered to a trickle, and research points to a surprising cause: unheralded changes in Mexico that have made staying home more attractive.

A growing body of evidence suggests that a mix of developments--expanding economic and educational opportunities, rising border crime and shrinking families--are suppressing illegal traffic as much as economic slowdowns or immigrant crackdowns in the United States.

NO CLIFF DWELLING

A reader writes of our Wednesday blog on the Guv's 52% approval rating in the PPP poll:

Joe, unlike other Republican Governors who were elected last year, Susana did not drive her honeymoon car over the cliffs by slashing and burning all of state government..."

True enough, but as we've said previously voters in Dem dominated New Mexico have Martinez on a short leash and she knows it. A move to the radical right on the key economic issues would incinerate her. That's why during her campaign she said she would cut bureaucracy in Medicaid and public education--not medical services or school teachers. Those promises are being closely monitored. (We talked more about the latest Guv poll with TV news).

DI AND HECTOR

That was a nice "get" for Hector Balderas Wednesday. The day after he released a solid fund-raising report, former Lt. Governor Diane Denish endorsed his candidacy for the Dem Senate nomination over Rep. Martin Heinrich. The Denish endorsement could help Hector raise money, attract southern Anglo votes and boosts his credibility.

So what could be wrong? Well, actually quite a bit--not with Di's endorsement--but with the accompanying message. Leave it to the Alligators to go contrary--and with all teeth bared:

If you didn't know better, you might have thought Denish and Balderas were a pair of cautious accountants--not the opposition to one of the most conservative Republican parties in modern history. On a telephone news conference, she said:

"I think that Hector's experience, his approach to fiscal accountability, fiscal responsibility, is one of the great parts of his record and the kind of skill set that we need in Washington."

Well, as Di's critics might say, "There she goes again." It was that kind of vague semi-conservatism that cost Denish and Brian Colon emotional support in their own party in last year's Governor's race, and it could signify a weakness for Balderas as well. Hector's news release announcing the endorsement came with this head scratcher of an opening:

Citing his record of bringing accountability to government in order to invest in education and economic opportunity, former New Mexico Lt. Governor and 2010 Democratic nominee for Governor Diane Denish today endorsed Hector Balderas for United States Senate.

What? No Social Security, no Medicare, no Medicaid, no unemployment, no talk of massive income inequality? And nothing about higher taxes for the uber-rich? The "fiscal accountability" talk in Washington is scaring the bejesus out of Mr. and Mrs. America, has Republicans on the defensive and the nominating wing of the Democratic Party on the move. And Hector decides to go vegetarian when the crowds are crying for red meat?

Some of Hector's fiscal message might resonate in a general election, but Balderas remains the decided primary underdog against a sitting U.S. Congressman who has a 2 to 1 money lead and a 23 point polling lead. What are these consultants playing for here? Senior partner in an accounting firm or a seat in the United States Senate?

Balderas seems to be indicating that the national deficit is the most pressing issue facing the USA. Many, many Democrats who vote in primaries are not going to get warm and fuzzy feelings hearing that. And big Dem money givers might also be inhibited.

In making a smooth play with Denish, Hector revealed his biggest current weakness--an inchoate message that indicates his campaign believes (wrongly) that conservative sounding, diaphanous talk is going to win this primary. Or maybe their thinking is that ethnicity will trump everything. But ideas still matter. Having a world view matters. Didn't Denish and Colon learn that the hard way? And while ethnicity is important, perhaps it is not quite as important as Team Balderas is supposing in a high information race like US Senate.

Hector has plenty of time to refine his message and his personal story remains compelling and moving, but right now that sound you're hearing is opportunity knocking on Martin Heinrich's door.

THE BACK STORY
Denish
So what's the back story on Di going for Hector? From one of our Democratic Alligators we get the low down:

The timing of Denish's endorsement was no coincidence, coming as it did after Hector came with a good finance report. She was behind Hector from day one, but could not endorse a candidate who might not have made it through the summer. Aside from Rep. Ben Ray Lujan, no elected official worked harder for Denish in her Governor race than Hector, especially in the North.

Denish and her crowd have been quietly pushing things around for Hector trying to help those donations roll in, but as Balderas has legitimized his campaign there is no more quiet work to be done--it's loud and proud behind Hector. Heinrich had to know the endorsement was coming because he did absolutely nothing to help Denish in last year's election, nothing. While he ultimately won his race, he burned a bridge and as you know La Politica doesn't forget.

Other Alligators note that if Denish ever runs again for political office she will need Hispanic voters. Her endorsement of Balderas helps that cause.

And, yes, it was interesting that no photos were released of Denish endorsing Balderas. You fill in that blank.

MONEY CHASE

A reader writes of the fund-raising summaries from Dem US Senate candidates Martin Heinrich and Hector Balderas:

In order to avoid offending Hispanics in a swing state, major donors and players held back from Heinrich. Now they have good reason to take a closer look at Balderas.

Heinrich raised $485,000 in the April quarter, what we took to be a healthy amount. But not everyone agreed, including that reader and this analysis from the National Journal's Hotline blog:

Balderas made his mark, raising over $400,000 in the first quarter, nearly matching the $485,000 that Heinrich brought in. Balderas' ability to fund raise was one of the biggest question marks on his campaign - that's not the case any longer. And Heinrich's near half-million haul is a little underwhelming, given that he's a sitting member of Congress with the fundraising perks that position entails....

There may be something to our reader's comments about donors pulling back a bit on Martin. A couple of months ago the Dem senatorial committee was quite careful not to give an endorsement to Heinrich, even as they endorsed in another contested Dem Senate primary. We noted at the time that overlooking a Hispanic candidate like Balderas could be treacherous for the national Dems.

They say Rep. Heinrich actually enjoys raising money over the phones. Well, he's got his marching orders--raise even more.

By the way, in our first draft Wednesday we called Heinrich a native of Missouri. He was actually born in Nevada and grew up in Missouri.

This is the home of New Mexico politics.

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They aren't blow-the-doors-off numbers, but a Republican governor scoring a 52 percent approval rating in a majority Democratic state isn't cause to cry in the corner either. And that's where Susana Martinez stands--at 52%--after six months in office, according to the Dem polling firm PPP. Her disapproval is at 37%. In a February PPP poll taken after she had been in office only one month Martinez's approval rating was at 52%.

Perhaps most importantly voters are showing no signs of having buyers remorse:

(Martinez) would win a hypothetical rematch with opponent Diane Denish by a 53-44 margin, actually a little bit better than the 7 point spread she won by last fall.

It caught our eye that the bribery trial of Las Cruces Judge Michael Murphy is slated to begin with jury selection on Halloween. But so far the really scary thing about the case is the paucity of firm evidence offered up by the special prosecutor. Heck, even the alleged "bagman" who is said to have passed on bribes to Governor Big Bill in exchange for judicial appointments hasn't even copped a deal or been indicted. Now that's pretty scary--or it could be--for special prosecutor and Clovis area district attorney Matt Chandler.

Chandler may win or lose the Murphy case but he is winning the messaging war. New Mexicans have seen plenty of corruption in their time. And indicating, as Chandler has, that alleged judicial bribery might not be confined to Las Cruces, is an easy political win for him and his fellow Republicans who benefit. Of course, crying "boo!" is easy. Proving that ghosts really exist is another matter.

Well, there goes the first half of 2011, a politically eventful six months that will be remembered for setting the political stage for years to comes. The big news was the announcement from Dem US Senator Jeff Bingaman that he would not seek re-election next year, ending a thirty year career that will also end New Mexico's seniority in a meaningful way on Capitol Hill.

It could be years before the state gets another powerful senate chairmanship like the energy committee slot Bingaman secured. We are sure to feel the impact economically, although we think President Obama is going to do his best to keep the goodies flowing here in the year's second half and through Election Day 2012.

The first six months of the term of Governor Martinez have now also been revealed, informing us as to what to expect for the next three years and then some. The GOP Guv is--not surprisingly--running a minimalist administration. It's also one that has had a rough start with the Legislature. Does the departure of Martinez deputy chief of staff Brian Moore from the Fourth Floor signal more rough waters ahead in that regard?

The thinking among a number of analysts still has Martinez pursuing an agenda that positions her a shot on the 2012 GOP presidential ticket, no matter how unlikely. If that is so and does not come to pass, could we see a different gubernatorial character as she then pivots for her Guv re-election? Well, not until after the 2012 GOP convention where the Veep pick will be made.

And then there's the September legislative redistricting session waiting in the wings. Will we get a deal or a Guv veto and end up in court? The political bettors say the latter is still the best bet.

Here in ABQ Mayor Berry ran into a buzzsaw in the first six months of 2011 in the form of numerous fatal police shootings and his administration's response. Political damage was inflicted, but how much?

Berry says the second half of the year will allow the voters give an "advisory" opinion on those controversial red light cameras. He did not veto the City Council's decision to send the issue to voters. That could send more anti-government and anti-incumbent voters to the October 4 polls.

It also means the mayor is going to have to campaign harder for the bond issues. And he will. He will also have to keep his eye on that Greg Payne-Trudy Jones NE Heights council race. More anti-red light camera voters could mean more Payne votes and if he wins the seat, the mayor's GOP majority on the council will be much more fluid.

One of those city councilors, Republican Dan Lewis, says he's raised $101,000 in the April-June quarter as he pursues the GOP nomination for the ABQ House seat being vacated by Dem Martin Heinrich who is running for Senate. Will that number influence 2010 GOP congressional nominee Jon Barela to take on Lewis or stay out?

That question and much more will be answered in the hopefully much less smoky half of 2011 in our Land of Enchantment.

Happy Fourth of July!

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