The amount spent on promoting the state has a direct bearing on who comes here and spends money. It's as simple as that. But the Secretary expresses exasperation that our smallish state will never have the same sized ad budgets as our larger neighbors and concludes--illogically--that we should therefore not increase our advertising and promotional budget. She says:

It will take money, but that is not the key. The key is to have a smart strategic plan in place and what we're looking at this year is building that plan, understanding how we talk to people. What do we tell them that is going to make them want to come here?

But Sharon Schultz of the Tourism Association responds simply but powerfully:

If you don't make people aware of your product, they're not going to know you exist, to come and visit you.

A poverty mentality is not going to improve our standing from 38th in the nation for attracting visitors. Just ask Pepsi.

FOLLOWING THE LINES

More today on what our analysts are saying about the redistricting of the state legislative seats...

ABQ Dem State Rep. Bill O'Neill, who has been hammered by the Governor and her political team for refusing to support their position in support of repealing driver's licenses for illegal immigrants, appears to have improved his chances for re-election under the redistricting plan passed by the Legislature but vetoed by the Guv. Our analysts say the eastern precincts in O'Neill's Northeast Heights district have been dropped, giving it a more Democratic flavor.

"For a hard campaigner like O'Neill this change could make a big difference," says one of our Alligators poring over the data.

The redistricting is not set in stone. But the court that will decide the boundaries will take into account the plan approved by the elected legislature.

For O'Neill, the break he got in the redistricting bill is seen as well-deserved. When other Dems faded from the heat of the attacks on the driver's licenses, O'Neill stood firm as he was blasted with robo calls and other hits.

The R's are sure to try to wrest the district from O'Neill. He won his first re-election in 2010 with only 51% of the vote, but if the "Fighting Irishman" takes his case door-to-door as he has in his past two runs, he is going to be tough to crack.

THE SPEAKER'S PATH

And what about NM House Speaker Ben Lujan? The powerful lawmaker had the scare of a lifetime when Carl Trujillo nearly ousted him in the 2010 Dem primary. Lujan won by a mere 80 votes. Well, our analysts say the redistricting gives Ben, 75, a bit more of the city of Santa Fe and a bit less of the rural precincts in his Santa Fe County district that he has represented since 1975. One Alligator reports:

Trujillo is still a threat, but if the Speaker works it, he should win. He can now argue to fellow Dems that he has stood firm against Republican Governor Martinez. Also, Lujan's tight relationship with Governor Richardson worked against him last time, but now Bill is gone. That helps. And his son, Congressman Ben Ray Lujan, is more established in his own right so the speaker is not dealing with as much resentment there...

Trujillo has not yet made a public statement on whether he will mount a primary challenge against Lujan.

SANCHEZ OUTLOOK

And what about that other powerful Santa Fe lawmaker, State Senate Majority Leader Michael Sanchez? There's been talk that he could be a prime GOP target in 2012 because of the way Valencia County has been voting more Republican. Our redistricting gurus say Sanchez is prepped to come out of redistricting with a safer seat. He loses some precincts in Los Lunas which lean R and he picks up Isleta Pueblo which gives him more Dems. They say the seat will now have a performance rating of 53 percent Dem, up from 49 percent. The R's can still try to take out the veteran, but they are going to have a steeper hill to climb, assuming as we are that the courts go with something similar to the above scenario.

KAREN IS A HERO?
Montoya
Reader Rosalie Montano comes with a full-throated defense of Democratic Bernalillo County Assessor Karen Montoya amid a controversy over layoffs at the office.

Mr. Monahan, Karen Montoya finally made the move that all taxpayers praise--lay off employees due to lack of work. Then we have the County Commissioners playing politics and not supporting her. Why is Commissioner Wiener asking for an investigation? An investigation was already asked for by the Commissioners. And the Human Resources know that there is just not enough work in that office at this time.

She submitted a plan to lay off positions that are no longer needed and changed four office positions which these laid off employees can apply for. It is simple--move these employees over to departments that have been asking for positions for over 10 years. There has not been any growth in many departments and they are struggling.

Karen Montoya to me is a hero, finally an elected official taking the risk for doing something right. Time for the media to back off and give the correct story to the public, us taxpayers want our money to be used correctly and efficiently!

We're sure Karen appreciates the vigorous defense, Rosalie. There is more on all of this here. And another report on whether the layoffs targeted employees who did not support Montoya politically.

Another note: Montoya has long been accused of being in the hip pocket of Dem State Sen. Tim Eichenberg, a property tax consultant, who works closely with the Assessor's office. She says he has no undue influence, but he was important in getting her elected.

Also, Montoya is now considering a run for the ABQ Public Regulation Commission seat being vacated next year by Dem Jason Marks. Montoya is in her second four year term as Assessor.

By the way, a couple of months ago we had a note up on the blog that Eichenberg might leave the Senate and go for the ABQ PRC seat. Word is he is now seeking re-election to a second four year term. Our insiders report he is being much more friendly with liberal Dems. Redistricting is going to add Dems to his NE Heights Senate seat. That means a primary challenge is more viable, even as the seat becomes much more safer from the Republicans in the general election.

REMEMBER WHEN?

Oldtimers will recall that a very young Tim Eichenberg was elected Bernalillo County Treasurer back in the mid 70's. We remember attending a couple of his news conferences. That was a case of the cub reporter covering the political cub.

VALLEY WARS

If you have been following the back and forth volleys here on what exactly constitutes ABQ's South Valley, this note from reader Phil Leckman will be of interest:

Not to disagree with the Senior Alligator, but the statement "Nobody except the uninformed from out of state include any part of Albuquerque in the South Valley" is, in fact, uniformed. The city annexed much of the Atrisco neighborhood, so the east side of Atrisco from Central down to at least Hooper falls within the city limits. There are additional pocket annexations all the way down to Coors and Gun Club…

CRUCES ELECTION
Miyagishima
That didn't take long. We broke the news to the state via Twitter last night that Las Cruces Mayor Ken Miyagishima had been re-elected to a second four year term,. The first seven precincts reporting gave the Democratic incumbent a more than 20 point lead and he was off to the races. Insider campaign polling had shown the mayor with a comfortable lead.

GOP City Councilor Dolores Conner earned second and Dem political operative Michael Huerta trailed in third. Near final results showed the popular Miyagishima blowing the doors off with 62% of the vote. There was no anti-incumbent mood in the City of Crosses Tuesday night. Well done, Mayor.

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All eyes are on the very narrowly divided House--36 Dems, 33 R's and one Independent. Can the Democrats broaden that margin and retake firm control in 2012? They have a pretty clean shot if they can recruit the right candidates. So say our legislative experts, insiders, wall-leaners, Alligators, hangers-on and political wanna-bes. Here are their top Dem prospects in the post-redistricting world

--ABQ GOP State Rep. Conrad James-- The freshman lawmaker's district is newly competitive for the Dems. That's because his district has been pushed unto more Democratic turf. He is the first Republican African-American legislator from Bernalillo County. He has adhered to a strong conservative record, giving him little wiggle room as he prepares to see new and Democratic faces on the campaign trail. The redrawn district likely to come out of the courts is split 50-50 between Dems and R's. When James was elected in 2010, the district was much more Republican.

--Valencia County GOP Rep. Alonzo Baldonado. He's another freshman Republican elected in 2010. but his re-election could be endangered by the new boundaries that emerge. His seat has been in play for a long time, but some say he redistricting tilts toward the Dems. He loses some GOP oriented precincts in Los Lunas and Bosque farms. On the other hand, insiders say Baldonado's not gnashing his teeth over the new lines. He doesn't see the changes as imperiling him.

--Los Alamos GOP Rep. Jim Hall-- He was appointed in June to fill the seat of the late Rep. Jeannette Wallace. This district offers the Dems an opportunity for a pick up because the new district as proposed goes more into the city of Santa Fe and out of the rural and more conservative Jemez area. Democrat Stephanie Richard ran a close race against Wallace in 2010 and she is expected to be back in '12 for a second try. This time the second time could be the charm.

--Dona Ana and Otero County GOP State Rep. Rick Little--Yet another GOP House freshman who has to watch his back in 2012. His district would become more Democratic under the redistricting bill approved by the Legislature. In it, he lost his very Republican Alamogordo precincts. Can the Dems find a top prospect to take advantage? Stay tuned.

--GOP veteran State Rep.Don Tripp of Socorro, Catron and Valencia Counties--This is a well-known political and business name, but the Alligators say Tripp is ripe for a challenge in 2012, if the Dems can step up to the plate with a big hitter. The district loses heavily Republican Catron County and southern Socorro County in the legislative approved plan. That makes the numbers more favorable for the Dems, making it a toss-up district. Tripp was first elected in 1998 when he defeated big name Democrats and then-House Majority Leader Michael Olguin. Back then, Don was the take down guy. Fourteen years later could he be taken down? We'll see.

So there you have the top four Democratic pick up opportunities in the NM House, but what about the R's? Our insiders say the GOP did so well in 2010 in this Democratic state when they picked up eight House seats in the 70 member body that there is no low lying fruit left for them to go after. If they simply held their own--and kept the chamber as narrowly divided as it currently is--2012 would be a darn good year for the party of the elephant.

TAX PROPOSALS

There is something to like and not like in the initial dribble of information coming out of Santa Fe regarding the Guv's tax proposals that she is considering sending down to the Legislature at the January session.

On the "like" side of the equation is her proposal to look at reducing the job-killing state gross receipts tax on small businesses--now at 7 percent. On the "not like" side is her ill-advised idea to cut corporate tax rates. In fact, we think she should be looking to increase some corporate rates to make up for revenue that she would lose if she won a cut in the gross receipts tax.

And therein lies the rub. The state will at best run a modest surplus for the budget year that begins next July--and maybe not even that. If we are going to trim the gross receipts tax--a tax that has really spiraled out of control and given our neighboring states a competitive advantage--we are going to have to replace the lost revenue. If not a fix in some of the corporate loopholes that have often been discussed, how about hiking the top state income tax rate? During the go-go years it was taken down from over 8 percent to 4.9. Contrary to far-right propaganda, the rate reduction has had no impact on job creation or in attracting high paid executives to the state. Both were promised when lawmakers of all stripes fell head over heels for the lower rates.

Of course, this GOP Governor is highly unlikely to acquiesce to a tax hike of any kind. And that means while tax reform in Santa Fe is not dead on arrival, it is in intensive care.

The state is under constant financial pressure during this epic Bear Market and can't afford to cut taxes. What it can do is restructure the tax system. Susana may make political points with her conservative base by proposing tax cuts, but as far as actually getting something done? Well, you'd have a better chance betting on a UNM Lobo football win...

THE FUNNY WEED

When it comes to jobs and the economy they're still smoking the funny weed over at state GOP headquarters (Monty, do they grow that stuff down in Hobbs?). Out of the blue, the spinmeisters try to give Susana the title of "Jobs Governor."

While President Obama is flailing, Governor Martinez is running the floor by delivering on her promises. It was announced this week that more than 100 jobs are coming to Santa Teresa because of Governor Martinez’s work. New Mexico is open for business and Governor Martinez's administration is working hard to create a more business-friendly state that will expand opportunities for New Mexicans for generations to come.

Wow! A whole 100 jobs! We're going to wet our blogging pajamas if they keep exciting us this way. (By they way, isn't the saying "running the table" not "the floor?" Guess these R's aren't hanging out at the pool halls where we cut our teeth).

The truth is that thousands upon thousands of jobs have been lost in this state during the Great Recession and the retrenchment has continued under this Governor, albeit at a slower rate. But any way you slice it 100 jobs does not make a "Jobs Governor," not when you are presiding over a work force that has shrunk dramatically as people give up looking or move elsewhere. And not when Santa Fe plays ostrich whenever the "jobs" word is uttered.

Having said that, Susana should not be discouraged about the one solid job-creating proposal she has put forth. That would be her $212 million capital outlay bill that was downsized to under $90 million by the perplexed politicos in the Legislature.

If Martinez really wants to be known as the "Jobs Governor" she should come back with a $450 million capital outlay package made up in part with money that has been appropriated but for years has gone unspent. How's that for some "bold change," Guv?

ALLIGATOR WARS

Just what are the boundaries of the storied ABQ South Valley? A Senior Alligator Monday argued that the Barelas neighborhood does not lie in that section of the ABQ metro, but another Gator strikes back at that notion:

a) Barelas is in the southwest quadrant

b) The South Valley is only west of the river?! Seriously?!?! I bet the folks in Mountain View, Kinney and other traditional South Valley neighborhoods would be shocked to hear that they have been summarily relocated to, where exactly? If they're not South Valley, where are they??

And from none other than Wikipedia:

Southwest Quadrant---Traditionally consisting of agricultural and rural areas, the Southwest quadrant is often referred to as the "South Valley." Although the city limits of Albuquerque do not include all of the area, the South Valley is considered to extend all the way to the Isleta Indian Reservation. This includes the old communities of Atrisco, Los Padillas, Kinney, Westgate, Mountainview, and Pajarito. The south end of downtown Albuquerque, the Bosque("woodlands"), the Barelas neighborhood, the National Hispanic Cultural Center, and the Albuquerque Biological Park are also located here.

The Senior Alligator responds:

Westgate Heights is the Southwest Mesa, not the South Valley. Nobody except the uninformed from out of state include any part of Albuquerque in the South Valley. Wikipedia is wrong about this and many other things. See its own disclaimer. The South Valley is only the area between Central to the Isleta Pueblo and between the West side of the Rio Grande to Foothill.
Any other area is not in the South Valley regardless of the errors of many and the pretensions of a few.

All of this got started when Rep. Kiki Saavedra endorsed Dem Eric Griego for the Dem nod for the ABQ congressional seat. Griego was born in Barelas.

Please don't ask how we wade into these things. Being a humble Anglo from Pennsylvania has its pitfalls.

MY BOTTOM LINES

A reminder to the offices of NM Economic Development Secretary-designate Jon Barela. You can't drop the "designate" when referring to him because the state Senate has yet to confirm Barela. That's why he is known as a "Designate." A department news release:

New Mexico Economic Development Department Secretary Jon Barela announced today that William “Bill” Mattiace was named executive director of the New Mexico Border Authority...

Jon is considering a run for the GOP nomination for the ABQ congressional seat and it sure would be nice not to have to have that pesky "Designate" hanging out there. But that's up to the Senate, not Jon the Designated One. (His office stationary does say "Cabinet Secretary Designate." Also, Education Secretary-Designate Hanna Skandera has also not yet won Senate confirmation. She uses designate when describing her position)....

In a first draft Monday we blogged that State. Sen. John Sapien serves on the Senate Finance Committee. We should have said the Legislative Finance Committee. And Rep. Andy Nunez voted "present," not "no" when the vote to retain House Speaker Lujan was last taken.

That doesn't change our analysis that Sapien's conservative votes--in line with those of Senate Finance Chair John Arthur Smith--could cause him headaches if he is challenged in the 2012 Democratic primary which was the focus of our report....

Susana names neither a Dem or an R to a Public Regulation Commission vacancy, but an independent:

Gov. Martinez has chosen a Santa Fe consultant to fill the position left vacant by the resignation of embattled former Public Regulation Commissioner Jerome Block Jr. Martinez named Doug Howe to the commission on Monday. She says he's well-versed in energy, environmental and regulatory issues. An independent, Howe works as a consultant with IHS Cambridge Energy Research Associates, a global consulting and research company.

It looks as though Howe won't be around long--unless he signs up with one of the major parties. This is the heavily Democratic northern Public Regulation Commission seat and it goes up for election next year. Independents are not usually elected, but the appointment does give Martinez some bragging rights that she is trying to be a bipartisan Guv, even while insiders note an R has no hope of taking the seat.

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