Alan Webber

A Santa Fe liberal with deep pockets is poised to enter what is shaping up to be a crowded race for the 2014 Dem Guv nomination.

Alan Webber, a onetime speechwriter for Massachusetts Governor Michael Dukakis, was one of the founders of Fast Company magazine which in 2000 was sold for a reported $350 million.

Webber, an author of several business related books and a former editor of the Harvard Business Review, made Santa Fe his home in 2003.

One of our Democratic insiders games it out:

Webber has hired a campaign consultant and is talking to pollsters in D.C. He has potential to be a self funder in the primary and outspend the other current candidates. Webber is a supporter of investment in early childhood programs and spoke positively about the proposed Constitutional Amendment to fund such programs at the recent conference on Kids Count data. Webber has little or no Democratic Party support and may not know his way from Santa Fe to Lordsburg, but money gets attention.

Here's a NM interview Webber conducted earlier this year. Here is his website where he does some blogging. Here is his Twitter feed. And here is more bio info.

If Webber pulls the trigger he would be the fourth contender in the race. Attorney General King and State Senators Howie Morales and Linda Lopez are already out on the campaign trail.

Veteran government administrator Lawrence Rael told me he is still weighing a possible Guv run.

Governor Martinez is unopposed for the GOP primary nomination.

TESTY OVER TESTS

We broke the news Thursday about that mass mailer sent out in support of the controversial  new teacher evaluation system. It was sent out by NM Competes--the dark money group run by a former Martinez administration staffer. Dem Guv candidate Gary King's campaign came with a response:

A secretly-funded arm of Gov. Martinez’ re-election campaign attacked public school teachers directly and distorts the facts about students’ and teachers’ success in order to prop up her harsh, unpopular “reform” agenda. The Martinez education plan demonizes teachers and harms the learning experience of children on behalf of big corporations, some of whom are her donors, seeking to privatize a growing portion of public school systems for their own profit. “These false, mean-spirited attacks on teachers and students do not improve the education of a single child in New Mexico,” said Gary King. 

The Governor's campaign says NM Competes does not coordinate its activities with it which is prohibited by IRS regulations.

THE CHAVEZ LEGACY

This is quite the portrait of NM Senator Dennis Chavez by Francisco Passalacqua. This month it wast put on display in the National Portrait Gallery at the Smithsonian Institution in Washington. From the Gallery's blog:

Dionisio “Dennis” Chavez (1888–1962) was the first native-born Hispanic elected to the United States Senate, where he served from 1935 to 1962. A strong advocate for civil rights and education, he sought to represent the diversity within minority communities....

The image influenced the design of a United State Postal Service stamp representing Chavez, part of the Great American Series. Given to the National Portrait Gallery by Chavez’s daughter, Gloria Chavez Tristani, this work is displayed in the “Twentieth-Century Americans” exhibition on the museum’s third floor.

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The dark money group that sprouted wings for Susana over the behavioral health crisis is back on the campaign circuit.

This time "NM Competes," headed up by longtime NM GOP political operative Sara Lister, has the Governor's back over intense criticism she is getting over a new teacher evaluation and student testing system.

The Public Education Department is bypassing the Legislature, saying it has the power to impose the teacher evaluation program on its own.

We've posted part of a large mailer that hit households this week as teachers rallied against the evaluations and ABQ Public School Board member Kathy Korte clashed publicly and vocally with the Governor (Complete mailer here.)

The mailer argues in favor of the evaluations and does not mention Governor Martinez by name.

Following the money maze, we have the Governor's official campaign account with over $3 million in cash, SusanaPAC--her political action committee, NM Reform--the PAC used to go after Dem legislative candidates and support R's. And NM Competes--a group that is not supposed to coordinate any of its activities with the Governor--but nevertheless is becoming a major player in the '14 race.

And, of course, it goes without saying that there are "dark money" groups like NM Competes supporting the Dems.

And you wonder why the public's eyes glaze over when they hear about money and politics?

ON ANOTHER FRONT

NM Competes is also active on the radio dial as we hear in this reader report:

This morning when I was driving in to work I heard a new ad from New Mexico Competes. I do not remember the ad verbatim but it starts out criticizing the recent government shutdown and then starts praising Martinez and our "legislative leaders" for working together on the budget in the last legislative session. The ad talks about the need to diversify our economy, and mentions what happened last session. I think it also mentions how we can not rely on federal funds anymore. The ad then tells listeners to call their "legislative leaders" and thank them for what they did. It is largely a Martinez piece under the guise of being a thank-your legislator piece.

MANAGING MORALES

Dem political consultant Jon Lipshutz has been signed by State Senator Howie Morales to manage his bid for the '14 Dem Guv nod.

 Liphshutz is a Pennsylvania native who worked for House Speaker Kenny Martinez in the 2012 cycle when the Dems picked up two state House seats. Since then he has continued to advise Martinez and work in local political races.

In 2008, he worked for the Dem congressional campaign committee here when Martin Heinrich and Harry Teague both won US House seats.

Lipshutz says it is "the energy and the drive" of Morales that will set the Silver City native apart from the other candidates. Those candidates are Attorney General Gary King and ABQ State Senator Linda Lopez.

FINDING FAULT

Governor Martinez faces a stagnant jobs picture as we near the election year. Her strategy to cope with it? Here's what she had to say at an appearance in Denver this week:

When the national economy is stagnant, it is difficult, of course, for states to grow,” Martinez said while criticizing the recent federal government shutdown. “So it is incumbent on the states to foster an environment where businesses can grow with or without the help of the federal government.”

What the Governor did not mention is that it has not been nearly as difficult for neighboring states to rebound from the Great Recession as it has been for us. Are there policies and programs that could hasten our recovery here instead of just blaming it all on the national economy? That's the stuff of which campaigns are made.

ROGUE TREASURER

Rogue Treasurer Ortiz

If we had our druthers county treasurers would be appointed by the county commissions whose elected members are answerable directly to the public. Why? Look at what's happening in downtown ABQ where Bernalillo County Treasurer Manny Ortiz has gone rogue.

Ortiz is investing in long term investments that pose a threat to the financial stability of the state's largest county. GOP Commissioner Lonnie Talbert and the other commissioners have tried to rope him in, but Ortiz, a Democrat, is hearing none of it, pointing out that he is independently elected and has the power to direct county investments the way he chooses.

There is bipartisan agreement on the commission that we can't have the treasurer going rogue. If Ortiz continues to refuse to cooperate, can the commission and taxpayers get some guidance from the local government division of the Department of Finance and Administration on how to proceed? (he state securities division is now looking at the treasurers investments)>

Also, can we get a look at the financial firms that are collecting fees on our investments and if they are in any way encouraging this rogue behavior? Some serious heat needs to be applied on everything and everyone the recalcitrant Ortiz has his fingerprints on.

And look who is advising Ortiz. It's none other than former county treasurer Patrick Padilla who is now a Dem candidate for state Treasurer. Pat, do yourself and all of us a favor and get Manny back on the ranch.

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Two Guvs

A friend of former Governor Big Bill told us over lunch the other day that Richardson is thinking about ways to "rehab" his image in fair New Mexico. He's not doing too badly around the rest of the nation, appearing regularly on national news programs, sitting on boards and releasing a new book--"How to Sweet talk a Shark" based on his experience in international diplomacy.

Richardson left the Guv's office under a cloud after serving eight years.. He had to withdraw his nomination to become Obama's Commerce Secretary because of a federal probe into pay-to-play allegations. Nothing came of it, but the probe had much to do with Bill's approval ratings plunging into the low 30 percent area. This from a Governor who in 2006 wracked up the biggest margin of victory in a Governor's race in state history when he shellacked John Dendahl 69% to 31%.

Richardson has refrained from commenting about his successor who captured the Guv's job largely by condemning Richardson and his performance. But in his new book he does give Susana Martinez a brief mention and it hints of the bitterness he feels over her campaign:

Predictably, as she prepared to take over the governor’s office, my reactionary, vindictive successor Susana Martinez tried to gain points by claiming she wouldn’t focus on such trivial matters and that considering a pardon of (Billy the) Kid would be a ‘waste of time.’ But it was easy to dismiss her complaining; she doesn’t understand or appreciate the deep veins of culture and history that course through New Mexico.

Martinez's office had no comment.

By most accounts Bill had a stellar first term as the state's chief executive. He mastered the legislature--some would say buffaloed it--and accomplished much. The second term is when the pay-to-play allegations took hold and the economy went bust and with it Big Bill's polling numbers.

That Richardson would like to "rehabilitate" his image in the state is no surprise. He was born to campaign. Rebranding himself here would be his last and perhaps the most challenging race of all for this political thoroughbred.

AND HOWIE MAKES 3

State Sen. Howie Morales, 40, made it official Tuesday and became the third contender for the '14 Dem Guv nomination. He made his announcement in Silver City.

While hospital administrator Morales was doing his thing, Guv hopeful and ABQ State Sen. Linda Lopez was slamming Attorney General Gary King, the front runner for the Dem nomination:

DOWNS DOINGS

A reader writes and urges interested legislators and the media to take a look at this:

It would be interesting to have someone file an open records request to see how much the State Fair lost during its live horse racing meet during the fair. The state's new lease with the Downs racino calls for the Fair to share in 50% of the losses related to live racing during the State Fair meet. 

Don't ask me how I know, but the Fair's "take" of this loss from 2012 was in the neighborhood of $320,000. Of course, there could have been some very creative accounting to come up with the racing loss. I'm not sure why the Martinez administration ever agreed to share in the live racing loss as part of the "new deal" when everyone knows that the reason for the existence of racinos is to offset the losses associated with live racing.

State Auditor Balderas still has the Fair's 6/30/12 audit under review. The gem outlined above will be reflected in the Fair's 6/30/13 audit. Can't Balderas get these audits out to the public? I have no idea what the share of loss is for the Fair for 2013 racing, but I would guess it is similar. I still wonder why no one explored the option of the state pursuing its own racino license and hiring someone to manage the operation under a management contract.

The controversial 25 year lease approved by the Martinez administration for the Downs has been the subject of an FBI investigation, according to the ABQ Journal. The extent or depth of that probe is unknown.

NEW LOBBYIST

From a news release:

David Oakeley has been named Government Affairs Director for the Realtors Association of New Mexico (RANM), Steven Anaya, Chief Executive Officer, announced. Oakeley will help lobby on behalf of RANM and assist in the development of strategies to achieve the Association’s legislative goals. He also will monitor and track state and federal legislative issues and help keep the membership informed.

Oakley is a Taos native with a lengthy media and marketing background who worked as a legislative analyst for RANM during the 2011 Legislature.

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Sen. Smith

If it's true as observers have been arguing here that state Dems could be headed for a bruising at the polls next year, just what will get them out of their seats and into the voting booths to avert humiliation in the Governor's race and a possible GOP takeover of the state House? Maybe it's not a particular candidate--but a big idea.

That leads Dem consultants to that proposal that would have the state wage war against its standing as the worst in the nation for child well-being.

The focus being a proposed constitutional amendment that would have state voters decide if the Land Grant Permanent Fund (current value of over $12 billion) should be tapped for about $100 million a year to invest in very early childhood education.

The amendment has a great deal of appeal to the Democratic base--especially women--who comprise a majority of the party. And Hispanics--another large Dem voting block--would benefit most from the new investment since it is Hispanic and Native American children who lag the most.

All in all, if the amendment were to be placed on the ballot it would seem to have a good chance of provoking some passion and thus stoking Democratic turnout.

But to get it on the '14 ballot it has to be approved by the state Senate and House (the Governor's approval is not needed for constitutional amendments. She is against this one). And that's where the party finds itself split between its conservative and liberal wings.

While the amendment has enough support in the House, conservative Democratic State Senator John Arthur Smith, chairman of the powerful finance committee and a staunch economic policy ally of Martinez's, refuses to allow his committee to vote on the bill.

Now with Dems facing a potential debacle next year pressure continues to grow on Smith to allow the amendment to got o a vote. And it's not longer just back room bitching. The liberal advocacy group, Center for Civic Policy (CCP), is airing a radio ad in the ABQ market, hammering Smith's refusal to allow a vote. From the ad:

Isn't protecting children more important than protecting politicians?...Senator John Arthur Smith is...blocking the bill from even being heard..His excuse for obstruction? Senator Smith said: My colleagues on Senate Finance did not want to have a vote on that bill...Smith went on to say he agreed to protect his fellow senators from criticism...Call Senator John Arthur Smith today. Tell him political cronies aren't the one who needs protection right now. It's time to take care of our kids. Give early childhood education a chance....

WHAT SAY SAPIEN?

The battle for the amendment has now also taken in State Senator John Sapien, chairman of the Senate Education Committee who, like Smith, rejects the amendment.

 A radio ad is now up (also from CCP) urging the Sandoval County Senator to yield and support a vote on the amendment.

Senators don't stand for re-election until 2016 so there is no immediate political threat to Smith and Sapien, but they could face primary challenges in '16 if their resistance continues. Those radio ads are evidence of that.

For now, when the Legislature meets in January with a prospective Democratic election rout as a backdrop, there will likely be even more pressure on the duo to take down their blockade against the amendment.

HOW LOW?

It may have been an historic margin of victory for Mayor Berry when he was re-elected October 8 but it also made history for being one of the lowest voter turnouts in decades.

The final canvass from the city shows only 70,500 voters out of the 364,000 registered bothered to cast ballots. That means only 19.3% of eligible voters showed up. It was the lowest total number of votes cast for mayor since 1977 when about 58,000 voted, according to our records.

As for the final percentages in the mayoral race, Berry received 68.10%, Pete Dinelli 28.72%, Paul Heh 3.10% and write-in candidates had 0.08%.

Berry's second term runs until December 1, 2017. He's expected to go the distance, although some R's would like to see him turn right around and run for US Senate against Dem Tom Udall next year.

A poll conducted Sunday night that our readers inform us about pitted Berry and several other candidates against Udall.

All scenarios for all statewide offices--no matter how far out--stay on the table until February 4 when candidates are required to file petition signatures to get on the June primary ballot.

MAC IS BACK

Mike McEntee

Former ABQ GOP City Councilor Mike McEntee, who got into trouble with his then-federal employer when he openly ran as a Republican in the 2001 ABQ mayoral race, came back to the political arena Monday. He announced that he will seek the GOP nomination for the ABQ congressional seat held by first term Democrat Rep. Michelle Lujan Grisham.

McEntee was suspended from his job as an air traffic controller for violating the Hatch Act during that mayoral contest, but now that he's seeking broad support in the heavy Dem ABQ district, he is--ironically--calling for less partisanship:

Shocking partisan hostility in Washington is out of control. Whether you’re a Democrat, a Republican, or an Independent, we are all Americans. That is the glue that binds us all together. A failure to build a consensus for the good of the American people is completely unacceptable.

McEntee retired from his air traffic controller job. He has now left his job with the city of ABQ Municipal Development Department to pursue the US House bid.

If McEntee, a grad of ABQ's St. Pius X High School, is to have a serious shot at Grisham, he will have to raise a boatload of cash and also separate himself from the more strident faction of the House GOP that insisted on shutting down the government.

NOT OUSTED?

Agnes Maldonado, the former executive director of the NM Developmental Disabilities Planning Council, writes:

I am writing to set the record straight about the section in your blog on October 17, 2013 regarding my departure from the NMDDPC. Please be clear. I was not "ousted" as you stated...The whole matter arose from allegations from {attorney} Bob McNeil making claims that are damaging to my character and reputation. Such claims should be verified before being posted on a public blog and damaging my reputation. Somebody used your blog as a medium to damage my reputation. I did talk to the chair of the board of DDPC to let her know about the blog and to send you a letter to set the record straight.

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The nightmarish outcome handed them in this month's ABQ mayor's race and the recent gubernatorial campaign finance reports provides the backdrop for the newest fear of state Democrats--that they are about to suffer another blow-out in the 2014 election.

As with the mayor's race, there already seems to be an air of Dem capitulation. The meme goes that Governor Martinez is unbeatable and that no significant money will be spent by anyone, anywhere to stop her.

Her dominance in early fund-rising over her closest Dem rival--a 20 to 1 cash-on-hand advantage--is now seen as evidence that not only is the governorship slipping away, but that the slim Dem majority in the state House hangs in the balance and that it is no longer a no-brainer that the Dems will, as usual, win the down ballot races like secretary of state.

House Speaker Kenny Martinez's acquiesence to the Governor's economic plan--of which the centerpiece was corporate income tax cuts--is seen as leaving him and his team with little ammo to fend off the frontal assault that they will soon endure. By crafting a "bipartisan" plan with her, he has ceded the #1 issue in the state-- jobs and economic development.

Without a message to ignite, unite and turnout the Democratic base, he will face vicious hand-to-hand combat in the half dozen or so districts that will decide whether he retains the speaker's gavel.

For example, in 2012, in one House district, the Governor's team sent out 28 mailers against a Dem hopeful. The Speaker's team argues 2010 redistricting helps him and that low voter turnout could actually favor incumbents, and that makes a GOP takeover wishful thinking.

Still, if the of kind of over-the-top GOP determination we saw last cycle is combined with a very low turnout, a historic GOP takeover of the House could be in play.

CRASHING THE TURNOUT

The low turnout strategy being pursed by the R's for '14 is an idnetial replica of the ABQ '13 mayor race in which voter turnout crashed (the lowest since 1977) and the GOP made up a stunning 43% of the electorate in a city where they have only about 31% of the registered voters.

Turnout can crash when the Dems have weak candidates and/or when the R's decide not to challenge popular Dem officeholders, concentrating their efforts on one or two goals--like electing a Governor and taking over the House.

All Dem candidates for Governor are very weak now because Martinez's popularity remains high, making it that much harder for her foes to raise the necessary campaign cash. Also, none of the Dem candidates is "star" quality, offering something new for the public to latch onto.

But perhaps as important is the decision by the R's not to field a serious challenge to Dem US Senator Toim Udall. That would give Dems a reason to come out and vote. The same goes for ABQ Dem Congresswoman Michelle Lujan Grisham who will also apparently avoid a serious challenge as R's work to keep that turnout at rock bottom levels.

Then there is the Dems down ballot problem. It could shape up as a mostly Anglo dominated team which will not do much to excite Dem Hispanics. That also plays into the R's low turnout model.

THE MACHINE


Independent political observers like former ABQ City Councilor Greg Payne have argued that until the Democrats get their mojo back and put on the field a political consultant with the same "take no prisoners" attitude as Jay McCleskey, they will languish. That's a theme that is now spreading among disgruntled Democrats. Here's a Senior Alligator of the Dem variety with an in-depth take:

The election results verify that Governor and Mayor Berry political adviser Jay McCleskey has taken what seemed to be a couple of random victories in the past and created a machine.

Martinez and Berry are no longer aberrations and Dems need to face the fact that they have to get their machine back up and running to compete. But the Dem machine has morphed into a shadow of its old success. The new Dem machine consists of self interested, weak politicians formed into a mutual admiration society.

There's no bravery in the bunch, there's no "party above all" attitude. The party is simply a vehicle for themselves as are the interest groups that support them and have supplanted the party in significance.

When Democratic mayoral candidate Pete Dinelli came along, they let Berry pocket an historic win and strengthened the McClesky machine. Had they lifted a finger for Pete, they could have at least kept Berry down in the low 50's or perhaps forced a runoff. A runoff could have given more intense focus to the Berry record and the weak policies of The McCleskey Machine.

Democratic politicians' aversion to taking positions and taking a stand on principle is hurting them. They seem to have a preternatural desire to be liked by everyone. When facing a machine you have to stand up to it. Trying to be its friend or cozying up to the special interests is not the way to do it.

Unfortunately, Dem politicians are trying to outlive the machine or hide out in their safe districts. That's an assured path to insignifigance. Dems need to re-group and need to understand that your future is limited as long as you allow the McCleskey machine to rack up victories.

THE FUTURE

Joe Monahan

Some forlorn Dems are saying that even if the R's were to take control of the state House next year--either through an outright majority or via a coalition--it would probably be short-lived. That's because the higher turnout presidential year of 2016 will bring out Democratic voters. Still, the fact that they are thinking about losing it says it all.

Then there is the incessant talk among so many Democrats about 2018. It seems everyone and their brother wants to run when Martinez would complete her second and final term. But the damage being done by the capitulation of precious political ground in these Democratic dark years gives rise to concern that too may D's are taking too many things for granted.

BEATABLE OR NOT?

Insider polling puts Governor Martinez's current statewide approval rating at 58%. That's down from the heady days when her approval soared to over 65%. But it is still a very solid foundation for a GOP governor.

As things stand, Martinez is not completely out of the woods. However, it appears it will take a major break against her such as a scandal erupting over the Downs at ABQ or the emailgate prosecutions that could deliver unexpected surprises. Or an out-of-the-blue charismatic candidate. But politics is of the moment and right now that moment is colored Republican red.

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c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2013. Not for reproduction without permission of the author