Some interesting tidbits about where support came from for the  Dem Guv finishers at last Saturday's preprimary convention.

Howie Morales finished first and had nearly 90 percent wins in the counties of Eddy, Otero and Socorro. A 51% win by second place preprimary finisher Alan Webber in San Miguel County was a surprise. Morales carried Dona Ana County with 41 percent. Webber narrowly won Bernalillo County over Sen. Linda Lopez who finished fourth at the convention. Webber also took his home county of Santa Fe. Gary King--who finished last at the preprimary--did win one county--Mora. Lawrence Rael's wins included Sandoval, Sierra, and Cibola counties. Rael finished third at the convention. Lopez, who finished fourth, won Quay, Luna, Chavez and Rio Arriba counties.

(An earlier version we posted of the county preprimary results had some incorrect info).

The two Guv hopefuls who did not get at least 20% of the preprimary vote will now submit petition signatures to get onto the June 3 primary ballot. It's a subject we explored on the blog this week and reader Catherine Sherwood writes:

Concerning the additional signatures that Gary King and Linda Lopez need to get on the ballot. The secretary of state's manual says that the petition signatures submitted the first time around count towards the final tally needed 10 days after the pre-primary convention. (Page 15, paragraph 4) If Gary had 4,372 good signatures on the first filing date, he is good to go. If Linda had 3,000 good signatures on the first filing date, she just needs 1,372 more...

King submitted some 10,000 signatures when first filing and now those will be applied to the new total required. Lopez did not submit enough signatures prior to the convention to meet the new requirement. She says she is now collecting them. . .

TOO MANY

Reader Preciliano Martin writes from Raton that he is not looking forward to choosing among five Dem candidates:

I am not in favor of 5 Democrats running in the primary. It's entirely too much intraparty conflict  generated with this many candidates. Historically, Democrats have been unable to come together in time for the general election after having primaries with large number of candidates. That is one reason I try to get elected as a preprimary delegate--to trim the number of candidates to where Democrats have a chance of coming back together before the November election.

Democratic Party efforts ought to be on defeating Susana Martinez. I do not see value in a primary with so many candidates, especially when a candidate was unable to garner sufficient delegate votes at the Democratic preprimary to make the June ballot.. I would hope that King and Lopez would reconsider this effort at getting on the primary ballot.

ABOUT JOHN SANCHEZ

On the Republican side, a reader writes of our statement that Lt. Governor John Sanchez has in the past have trouble running campaigns:

I read with interest your Wednesday blog, regarding Governor Martinez moving up to either the VP or a cabinet position if the GOP re-gains the White House in 2016. Your comments about Lt. Governor John Sanchez were also interesting, mostly accurate as usual, with one exception. Your assessment that he has “had trouble running campaigns” is not the case.

In 1998, he defeated a former mayor to take a seat on the Los Ranchos Village Council. In 2000, he beat the biggest Democrat in New Mexico, House Speaker Raymond Sanchez in House District 15. In 2002, he won the GOP nomination for Governor. Bill Richardson gave Sanchez his only loss, by outspending him 3 to 1. In 2010, he had a 10 point victory over 2 popular Republican legislators to win the nomination for Lt. Governor.

Remember, that in 2012 John Sanchez never filed for the U.S. Senate race, but instead, saved the GOP a huge mess by endorsing Heather Wilson for the nomination. He has raised over $4 million as a candidate, and he may be the most popular Republican across the state. As a long time supporter and observer of John Sanchez, I believe that he is our best hope of holding the Governor’s office in the future.

Thanks for stopping by this week.

This is the home of New Mexico Politics.

E-mail your news and comments. (jmonahan@ix.netcom.com)

Interested in reaching New Mexico's most informed audience? Advertise here.      

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2014. Not for reproduction without permission of the author

Rocky Lara's road to the southern New Mexico congressional seat may have gotten a lot rockier. The soon-to-be Dem nominee--who will challenge GOP US Rep. Steve Pearce--has been in silent mode ever since the sensational news broke that here had been a radiation leak at WIPP--the nuclear storage site in Eddy County near Carlsbad in SE NM.

Dona Ana and Grant counties are bastions of environmentalism in the 2nd CD and are counties Lara needs to win big if she is to have any hope of competing with Pearce. National Dems have targeted this race and are pounding the table for Lara. Her mum-is-the-word approach on this most high-profile of environmental issues has the eyebrows raised.

Lara's problem is that she is a former chair of the Eddy County Commission and--like Pearce--has been a big booster of WIPP. That has not gone unnoticed on the campaign trail. In a letter to the Sun-News Connie Potter of Las Cruces scorched attorney Lara for her quietude on a news story that has made global headlines:


Until the source of the leak at WIPP is known and addressed, it is important that the responding agencies are forthcoming with information and responsive to the community's inquiries," Rocky Lara said. “The safety of the workers at WIPP and of the Carlsbad community is my primary concern. I am reassured by the reports that have shown that the employees who tested positive for radiation exposure are not expected to have any adverse health effects, but we must remain vigilant.

Democrats like letter writer Potter feel Lara is conflicted on the nuclear waste issue and is not going to be able to do much to compare and contrast her position with that of Pearce's thus bypassing a major opportunity for the D's.

PEARCE CATCHES UP

Heinrich, Udall & Pearce @ WIPP meet

As for Pearce, we noted he was slow out of the gate on the WIPP leak. That's because his web site shows that after his first statement about the Valentine's Day leak on February 15, he went silent until he announced a WIPP town hall meeting on March 4.

But Pearce has since picked up the slack and has also avoided any ill-advised boosterism of WIPP or vouching for the safety of the facility.

The surrounding communities are shrouded in nervousness, awaiting more information on the cause of the leak. Pearce has made an effort to separate himself from the Department of Energy which is responsible for WIPP and has not inspired trust in the way it has handled the incident:

“I will hold their feet to the fire. In my meetings with Secretary Moniz, and in my conversations with top officials at the Department of Energy, I have strongly voiced New Mexicans’ concerns about the lack of information about WIPP, and they have committed to improving regular and transparent communications with the community. Friday’s town hall was a productive and frank discussion between top department officials and members of the community, and I expect the Department of Energy to continue with daily updates and straight answers in that same spirit.”

Pearce was part of a recent meeting about the WIPP leak with Dem Senators Udall and Heinrich and Secretary Moniz. A widely distributed photo of the meeting gave the very conservative Pearce a patina of bipartisanship.

Pearce now reports that current WIPP employees will continue to get paychecks, even as WIPP remains shut to new canisters of nuclear waste.

The Pearce and Lara statements are essentially the same. Given the uncertainly as to what caused the accident, that's understandable. But that works best for Pearce who is known for his strong nuclear stance and now seems in front of the story whereas Rocky--who has presented herself as a vastly different politician than Pearce--does not.

It's been that kind of run for NM House Speaker Ken Martinez. Not only does he have to worry about one of the narrowest majorities the Dems have had in the House in many a year, now he has drawn a Democratic primary opponent as he seeks his ninth, two year term. Not that political unknown Nicole Lee Schult, 29, of Bluewater is going to be a serious threat to the speaker, but it's not a distraction he needs.

Candidates Tuesday filed for all 70 state House seats. The Senate goes before the voterr in '16. Complete state filings here. Complete Bernalillo County filings here.

While 10 members of the House have announced they are retiring this year, six former members are trying to get a return trip to Santa Fe, including the always entertaining Benjie Regensberg who filed for the Dem primary against Rep. Nick Salazar, the longest serving member of the House.

But it was the two primary challengers for Dem renegade Rep. Sandra Jeff that most insiders were eyeing. Jeff has sided with Republicans on key votes in the closely divided House, often making for  conservative coalitions and defying Speaker Martinez's leadership.

She will be challenged in the Indian Country seat by Charles Long and Doreen Johnson but remains a favorite to win. In 2012 she was challenged in a primary and took 60 percent of the vote.

DOING THE MATH

If the R's kept all 33 of their current House seats and could count on Jeff and one more Dem to cross the aisle it would be a tie ball game in the House. No wonder all those Alligator eyes were looking Jeff's way on filing day.

If you assume the Santa Fe area seat held by appointed R Vickie Perea reverts back to the Dems in November--and that's a pretty solid assumption--it would mean the R's start with 32 seats and the Dems 38. That means the R's need to pick up four seats in November to take the majority. . .

FILING HIGHLIGHTS

Other filing news that caught our attention--Las Cruces are Rep. Mary Helen Garcia drew two Dem primary challengers....GOP Bernalillo County Commissioner Wayne Johnson drew a primary challenger in John Madrid. . . . Among Bernalillo county state reps getting a free ride--no primary or general election opponents--are Gail Chasey and Sheryl Williams-Stapleton. Republican Reps. Larry Larranaga and Jimmie Hall are also getting free rides. . .

And a free ride for Deborah Armstrong for the ABQ North Valley House seat being vacated by retiring Rep. Ed Sandoval. No other Dem filed and no R's applied. Armstrong has close ties to US Rep. Michelle Lujan Grisham. Did she use some Michelle muscle to get this one done?. . . .

In Indian Country, Gallup area Rep. Patty Lundstrom has three foes chasing her in the Dem primary. . .

As expected it's a three-way Dem battle in ABQ's South Valley for the seat held by retiring Rep. Kiki Saavedra and another three-way Valley battle for the seat that is being vacated by Rep. Ernie Chavez.

THE OUTLOOK

With all the gloom and doom surrounding the Dems and their House chances, Santa Fe Rep. Brian Egolf tells us his PAC will be up and running to help defend the House and he predicted it and other pro-Dem PACS will be well-financed.

House Speaker Martinez came with this list of Dem House recruits, their backgrounds and his (optimistic) outlook for the Dems maintaining control. ABQ Rep. Nate Gentry and Guv political adviser Jay McCleskey are heading up the R House effort.

Steve Cabiedes, a political veteran who has worked on redistricting for the Legislature, says the GOP wanted more competitive seats and they got them in the redistricting of 2010. He adds, however, that the territory the R's have picked up will need great attention for the rest of the decade because they are very much swing seats.

LAWRENCE SWIPES HOWIE

That didn't take long. Just days after finishing third to Howie Morales' first at the state Dem preprimary convention, Lawrence Rael went to work on his rival for the Dem Guv nomination. In a fund-raising appeal, he came with this swipe of the Silver City state senator:

The legislature has not held Susana accountable for her failures; but together, we can do it. Now is the time to act and demand the type of government we all deserve. . . .

Expect Rael to go after Morales's Senate voting record as the campaign for the Dem nod heats up.

NEW BUDGET

The Governor has signed off on a noncontroversial $6.2 billion election year budget for the fiscal year that starts July 1. Her complete budget message is here. And here is a list of many of her line item budget vetoes, including $75,000 for the African-American Performing Arts Center at the State Fair.

RATING MARTINEZ

Gov. Martinez continues to get mentions as a possible VP contender. Surprisingly, a WaPo analyst put her atop a field of five possibles. It's a longshot but. . . . .

If Martinez somehow ended up as vice-president or as a cabinet secretary in a Republican administration, the New Mexican governorship would rotate to Lieutenant Governor John Sanchez. It's not a prospect that infuses widespread dread, even among Democrats. They would disagree with him and fight to defeat him, but he would not be nearly as polarizing a figure as Martinez and her associates.

Sanchez is not the type of politico to keep a Nixonian enemies list. He would leave the rough and tumble to outsiders like the GOP chairman and keep the political consultants giving consultations, not running the government,

Sanchez s a successful businessman--he started his own roofing company--and understands how money moves. Perhaps that would mean more willingness from his administration to own up to the serious challenges the state faces and be less one dimensional than the administration he serves in.

Despite dropping the ball in a brief run for the US Senate nomination in 2012 and his loss of the Governorship to Dem Bill Richardson in 2002, Sanchez remains a widely popular figure in the GOP. He gets grins and applause wherever he appears.

The lieutenant governor has had trouble running campaigns. Getting appointed Governor and having two years to make his case before running in '18 would be a Godsend for the NM native. It might even upset the narrative of  those Democrats who think if Susana wins this November and then leaves in '18, it will be a walk in the park to reclaim the governorship.

This is the home of New Mexico politics.

E-mail your news and comments. (jmonahan@ix.netcom.com)

Interested in reaching New Mexico's most informed audience? Advertise here.      

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2014. Not for reproduction without permission of the author

Thanks for stopping by for some Tuesday blogging. . . .

Attorney General Gary King said Monday he's not going away. King finished last in the five way Dem Guv preprimary contest. King's decision to stay in raises the question of how much of his personal wealth he will contribute to his effort. After the Saturday debacle, his fund-raising will take a major hit...

A spokeswoman for Guv contender Linda Lopez tells us the ABQ state Senator who finished fourth at the preprimary is gathering additional petition signatures so she can be placed on the June 3 primary ballot.

Some Dems are urging Lopez to stay in as she is the only woman in the race in a party in which women are the majority. Also, Lopez came up only a point and half short of the required 20 percent to make the ballot. King commanded just 10.5% of the delegates in his fifth place finish.

HOLD ON, JUNKIES

Hold the email, political junkies. We are fully aware that Gary King submitted 10,000 petition signatures to qualify for the preprimary. But that does not "automatically" place him on the June 3 primary ballot after he failed to get the required 20 percent of the preprimary vote. From the secretary of state's Primary Guide:

Candidates who have sought pre-primary designation, but did not receive it, file a second Declaration of Candidacy and any additional nominating petitions required on either March 11, 2014, or 10 days after the date of the preprimary convention, whichever is later, between 9:00 a.m. and 5:00 p.m.

It takes 2,186 signatures for the Guv candidates to qualify for the preprimary. if they fail to get 20 percent of delegate support at the preprimary they must file another 2,186 to be placed on the June 3  ballot.

King--as well as other candidates in the past--have said the signatures they collected before the preprimary can be applied to meet the additional requirement and they have been accepted.

But does the law seem intended to put up an additional hurdle to prevent a frivolous candidacy? Namely, that you go out and get fresh qualifying signatures to demonstrate that despite your failure at the preprimary, you still have significant public support to continue your candidacy?

It's an interesting "in the weeds" discussion. Perhaps the secretary of state can give some guidance...

NEVER BEEN DONE

And is it worth mentioning at this point in our little discussion that no candidate in state history has won a primary election if they did not win at least 20 percent of the preprimary vote?. . . .

WHAT IF?

What if second place finisher Alan Webber had put up $100,000 worth of TV ads prior to the preprimary? Could he have stolen the show from first place finisher Howie Morales? The psychological impact might have swayed enough delegates to put Webber in first? Whatever the case, the Santa Fe businessman will now dig deep into his deep pockets to keep his momentum going. . . .

A FRESH TAKE

He may be a fresh face on the statewide scene but Howie Morales is not a freshman state Senator as we erroneous said on the mammoth blog we did on the preprimary Monday.

Morales was appointed to his Senate seat In January 2008 by Governor Richardson. He replaced Sen, Ben Altimirano who died a month earlier. Morales was elected to a four year term later in 2008 and re-elected in 2012. So he's a two term Senator--not a freshman. But considering voter opinion of the place, he probably wouldn't mind if folks thought he hasn't been in Santa Fe very long. . . .

And one of our analysts said that Morales would be attacked for being an "intellectual lightweight." A friend of Morales ribbed back, saying:

When did earning a Ph.D equate to being an intellectual lightweight in this country?

Morales has a doctorate in education and has served as a special education teacher and baseball coach.
Governor Martinez has a law degree, but that doesn't stop her from also taking hits for being a "lightweight."

TODAY IS THE DAY

Today is filing day for candidates for the 70 seats in the state House of Representatives. With Republicans saying they are mounting a major effort to take control of the chamber from the Dems, the filings will be more closely watched than ever (Links to keep track of who files today are posted at the bottom of today's blog).

PHIL ARCHULETA SPEAKS

Rep. Archuleta

One of the House seats that has generated much speculation belongs to Dona Ana County Dem Rep. Phil Archuleta. In his first interview regarding his future, I spoke with Phil from the rehabilitation facility where he is recovering from having his leg amputated and associated health issues. Archuleta reiterated to me what his friends previously said--that he will seek re-election.

Archuleta missed the entire legislative session this year, but says he expects to be released from rehab in a couple of weeks. He also said "I would never do that" when asked to address scuttlebutt that he would file his candidacy  but withdraw after the June primary so a replacement could be named.

"I am going to continue to fight in the Legislature for working men and women and for the people who can't fend for themselves," said the 69 year old.

Former State Rep. Andy Nunez, 79, has said he will run as a Republican against Archuleta.

FILING DAY TODAY

Depending on their districts, state House candidates will file their candidacies. Secretary of State Duran will post the filings as they occur on the SOS website as they occur and Bernalillo County Clerk Maggie Toulouse Oliver will post local filings on the county website.

This is the home of New Mexico politics.

E-mail your news and comments. (jmonahan@ix.netcom.com)

Interested in reaching New Mexico's most informed audience? Advertise here.      

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2014. Not for reproduction without permission of the author

Howie Morales

The desire for a fresh face, key support from a major teachers union and a rousing convention speech made for a perfect storm that propelled little-known 41 year old state Senator Howie Morales into the front-runner position for the 2014 Democratic gubernatorial nomination.

Morales captured over 29 percent of the delegate support at the Democratic Party's Saturday preprimary convention. It earned him the top spot on the June 3 primary ballot and a nearly 8 point win over his closest competitor. The question now is whether he can hold on to the momentum he captured.

Can Santa Fe businessman Alan Weber, the second place finisher with 21 percent and who is another new face on the statewide scene, take it from him?

How about third place finisher Lawrence Rael? He held on by the skin of his teeth to barely garner the 20% of delegate support needed to get an official spot on the June 3 primary ballot.

As for Attorney General Gary King, the best known face in the race, his fifth place finish with only 10 percent delegate support was a devastating blow to the 59 year old. He has nurtured dreams of being Governor ever since his dad Bruce King accomplished the task on three separate occasions.

What was left of the King dynasty was shattered in pieces on the auditorium floor of the Route 66 Casino and Hotel--otherwise known as Gary's Waterloo. He can get on the ballot by submitting additional petition signatures but the chance of a win now is so remote he will have to ponder a withdrawal.

Fourth place finisher and ABQ state Senator Linda Lopez received 18 percent, not far shy of the important 20% mark, but her hopes of getting a push from a good showing were dashed when she came up two points shy of the magic number. Like King, she can file petition signatures to get on the  ballot, but she now faces the challenge of raising enough cash to be a major factor.

FINAL RESULTS

State Dems say 1,455 delegates voted in the Guv preprimary. Here are the final results:

Howie Morales--426 votes or 29.28 percent; Alan Webber--314 votes or 21.58 percent; Lawrence Rael-- 293 votes or 20.13 percent; Linda Lopez--269 or 18.48 percent; Gary King--153 votes or 10.51 percent. 

The vote is to be certified this week. No challenges have yet surfaced.

NOW THE CAMPAIGN

Alan Webber

Veteran NM politico Mike Santullo, an independent and watching the game since the 60's, said the preprimary results present an immediate danger to the three laggard candidates--Morales and Webber could be on track to make this a two man contest:

It's now all about the mother's milk of politics--money. And the money that buys the media. Morales is going to get financial support from around the state because of his showing and Webber's deep personal pockets give him the ammo to fight to the end. Rael hung on but the Hispanic vote could start drifting to Morales if it is not interrupted. Gary and Linda are lying on the battlefield wounded and yelling for the money medics, but their cries will fall on deaf ears. 

Morales immediately went to work trying to translate his victory into cold, hard cash.

Santullo said the three successful contenders have baggage they will have to deal with and that they will now use on one another:

Howie has been cast as an intellectual lightweight and not ready for prime time. If Webber spends big, he is going to be accused of trying to buy the nomination. He will also be contrasted with Morales as the old guy. (Webber is 65). Rael is seen as too conservative for a liberal primary and not the fresh face people are looking for in a party that is seeking new faces.

PAYNE'S TAKE

Former ABQ city councilor and independent Greg Payne--watching the NM action since the 80's--said one reason the weaker candidates will want to continue their campaigns is because Morales is untested:

Morales. . . out organized the other candidates but now everything will shift out of convention mode into real world mode. Both Lawrence Rael and the anointed outside candidate Alan Webber eked out their ballot counts to get into the game. Now the real campaign to get people to listen will begin. Morales is an unknown to the average voter as is Webber. Rael has some name ID. . . .Really, anything can happen.

THE HOWIE FILE

Morales of Silver City is the youngest of the Guv hopefuls and by all accounts his convention speech was the most rousing. It reminded several delegates of a locker room speech at halftime. He excited the team players and went after the opposition--Gov. Susana Martinez--with gusto (The full speech is posted here).

Morales has been a successful high school baseball coach and Saturday he proved himself ready for the big leagues--at least for that day.

Then there was that critical endorsement from the American Federation of Teachers (AFT-NM). They recruited delegates to the convention and provided Morales with vital organization. And it's organization that these conventions ultimately test.

Going forward teacher union money--nationally and locally--could bolster Morales' campaign coffers. No other group has battled so intensely with this Governor than teachers. Her conflict with them has activated that particular base of the Dem Party. If Martinez had not picked that fight, it is highly unlikely Howie Morales would be where he is today.

The Guv and her adviser Jay McCleskey were obviously hoping against hope that they would face the very well-known King in November. That is extremely unlikely now and is a bump in the road for them. But with oodles of money and the power of incumbency, they will soon adjust to the new playing field. Their machine will go to work on Morales and throw in Webber and Rael while they're at it.

PLOTTING STRATEGY

Lawrence Rael

Our preprimary coverage continues now with analysis from Republican Bruce Donisthorpe who has conducted highly accurate polls for NM Politics with Joe Monahan since 2008.

It is a big win for Morales. If I am Alan Webber I am looking to go up with TV ads to interrupt the momentum Morales gets from this victory. If I am Morales I should be contemplating how I can start to consolidate the Hispanic vote, arguing that the convention results peg me as the top Hispanic contender. 

Rael will need to concentrate on fund-raising to compete with Morales. He will also look to poke holes in the Morales record. As for King and Lopez, they are now lost in the desert. It's hard to see a way forward for either.

The only other statewide race that was contested at the Dem meet was over state Treasurer and it was another case of a longtime party insider taking a hit. Tim Eichenberg bested former NM Dem Party Chairman John Wertheim 52.7 percent to 40.7 percent with Patrick Padilla, a former Bernalillo County treasurer who has been embroiled in a county investment scandal, receiving only 7.1 percent. Padilla will have to file petiton signatures if this is going to be a three way race.

Eichenberg was elected Bernalillo County treasurer in the 70's and recently did a stint as an ABQ state senator. He is a property tax consultant who has done well. Wertheim is a successful attorney who has made two runs for the ABQ congressional seat. Eichenberg's convention win gives him the momentum and raises the cost of the campaign for Wertheim. Dem analyst Harry Pavlides said it will also likely force Wertheim to go negative on the front-runner.

SIDEBAR

State Senator Tim Keller was unopposed for the ballot race for state auditor as was Bernalillo County Clerk Maggie Toulouse Oliver who is running for secretary of state. State Auditor Hector Balderas was unopposed for attorney general. Roxanne Lara kept her opponent--Leslie Endean-Singh--below the 20 percent threshold in her campaign for the Dem nod and the right to take on southern NM GOP Congressman Steve Pearce. Northern Dem Congressman Ben Ray Lujan scored nearly 99 percent of the vote against attorney Robert Blanch.

MESSY CONVENTION

Delegates and some of the campaigns complained that the preprimary convention was a messy affair, with endless speeches gobbling up hours and hours.

The decision to not count the results from the Dem Guv balloting until all speeches ended was widely criticized for costing the Dems a major media opportunity. Because the results were not released until nearly 8 p.m., the convention and its Guv winners made no news on any of the early evening TV news broadcasts that go statewide.

Inside the hall, delegates wondered why unopposed candidates were given so much time to speak and why the candidates in contested races were allowed to violate time limits. The convention sputtered to an end with only diehards in attendance since delegates were allowed to start voting before noon. Many did and then left. One bright spot for the party--each candidate who went over their allotted time will be fined $100 for each minute they ignored the clock. . . .

Thanks to photographer Mark Bralley for today's photos of the Guv candidates.

This is the home of New Mexico politics.

E-mail your news and comments. (jmonahan@ix.netcom.com)

Interested in reaching New Mexico's most informed audience? Advertise here.      

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2014. Not for reproduction without permission of the author