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Wednesday, November 26, 2014

New Mexicans Take A Holiday Break Along With Their Many Visitors, Plus: Looking For A Silver Lining In State Economy, Dispatches From The Oil Patch And Happy Thanksgiving, New Mexico! 

New Mexicans are always thankful to be living amid one of the most wondrous landscapes on the planet. They'll take to the hiking trails, ski slopes and the city parks this holiday weekend to enjoy the bipartisan pursuit of soaking in sunshine and endless blue skies. A lot of visitors will be joining them. . .

Tourism in the state has been on the upswing as more ad dollars are devoted to attracting travelers. It's one of the few areas in which the Martinez administration and the Santa Fe budget hawks have allowed spending to increase in a meaningful way. The pay off is record lodging tax revenues in small towns like Red River in the north where tourism is the lifeblood of the economy. . .

The state tourism department will be asking the Legislature in January for a $3 million ad budget increase to attract high income visitors from the San Francisco region. Agreeing that the beauty and culture of New Mexico is worth showcasing to the nation is a point even the most ardent partisans can agree on. . .

Not wanting to put a damper on the holiday, NM journalist Wally Gordon looks for some silver linings in the state economic outlook and points to this:

. .  .Nationally the economy grew an unexpectedly strong 3.9 percent in the third quarter, the federal government reported. . .That national growth may help pull New Mexico along in its wake. It was also reported that Albuquerque has the cheapest gas in the country, clearly a boon to our numerous long-distance commuters.

There are tentative signs of a jobs recovery in the state but the fly in the ointment is the kind of jobs being created--most are of the low wage variety. . .

THE OIL PATCH

We noted  this week those astronomical hotel rates in oil boom country in SE NM. A reader familiar with the area clarifies:

While hotel rates are astronomical in Carlsbad they are pretty average in Hobbs and Roswell. This is because of the interest in the geologic formations known as the Bone Springs in Eddy County. Oil production on state lands is higher in Eddy County than Lea County because of development of Bone Spring resources.

And reader Violet Cauthon in Las Cruces comes with more on the oil outlook:

Your story on Mack Energy, state revenue from oil and gas, etc., touts the "high-paying jobs" that would be lost in the inevitable "bust" of the oil business. I grew up in Oklahoma, dad worked for an oil company and in my adult life I also worked for various oil companies.

Those high-paying jobs go to a lot of "gypsy" oil workers from many different states. The locals don't get much unless they're already on Mack Energy payrolls. Just ask the hotel/motel/restaurant industry why their businesses are booming. Out of state workers. I travel through that area and, yes, Artesia looks good as does Clovis but the surrounding rural poverty is still obvious.

Reader Doug Bentley writes of criticism of local biz leaders for not talking more about education reform, improving infrastructure and getting more investment money injected into the local economy:

"Why aren't business leaders talking about that?" It turns out, Steve McKee is talking about it. His points include right-to-work, eliminating the state income tax, regulatory reform & an overhaul of public education. See his speech here.

Thanks, Doug, but didn't we already slash the highest rates on personal income from 8.2% to 4.9%? Maybe we should be talking about the real business killer--the gross receipts tax that is now hitting over 8% in some areas of the state. . .

DUNN VS. POWELL

The odds seem to favor Republican Aubrey Dunn emerging as the official winner when a recount is concluded in the race for state land commissioner. Dunn's lead had shrunk to less than 600 votes but now the secretary of state's site has the lead at 704.

That is a large margin and a major error will have to be detected if incumbent Dem Land Commissioner Ray Powell is to emerge victorious. Recounts are mandatory when candidates are separated by one half of one percent or less. The recount of the land commission race is set to begin December 8.

AT THE MOVIES

Reader Eric Lucero returns with a look at some of the movies out for the holiday weekend:

The Penguins of Madagascar (PG) 92 mins, Comedy/Adventure 2.5 Stars out of 5.  This silly spy yarn tracks a quad of Penguins (remember Madagascar 2005? Skipper and the gang hook up with a snooty undercover clandestine group called the North Wind and the mayhem starts. It's really meant for Madagascar fans under 12, but for the rest of us it’s still a guilty pleasure for the rest of us. A lot of zany fun.”

The Theory of Everything (PG-13), 123 min, Bio-Drama, 4 Stars out of 5. This is a wonderful romantic biopic about renowned astrophysicist and  cosmologist Dr. Stephen Hawking. He projects a powerful human face as he deals with Lou Gehrig’s Disease. Director James Marsh’s (Man on Wire, 2008) fine direction and the inspired performances of Eddie Redmayn and Felicity Jones make this two hour journey into despair and triumph a must see for all audiences…

Interstellar (PG-13), 169 min, Action/Adventure, Sci-Fi Drama, 5 Stars out of 5. This monument of film making by renowned director Christopher Nolan is a brilliant gem. It stretches the bounds of film technology. Interstellar goes way beyond where 2001: A Space Odyssey ever dared to go. With Nolan you always are faced with plots within plots. Every scene has multiple meanings.

HOLIDAY HOURS

A friend in Las Vegas gave us a chuckle when they sent us this pic of "holiday hours" for a Starbucks on the famous Strip. That's an only in Vegas moment, for sure.

As for us, we'll grab a Starbucks over the long holiday weekend. We won't be open 24 hours but will be back in this space with you on Monday.

Happy Thanksgiving, New Mexico!

This is the home of New Mexico politics.

E-mail your news and comments. (jmonahan@ix.netcom.com)

Interested in reaching New Mexico's most informed audience? Advertise here.      

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2014. Not for reproduction without permission of the author

Tuesday, November 25, 2014

Oil Makes For The Wealthiest Man In New Mexico As State Frets Over Boom's Possible End, Plus: Right To Work Isn't Fairy Dust 

Mack Chase
Here's a fellow who has a lot to be thankful for this Thanksgiving Week. He's Mack Chase, president of the Artesia, NM based Mack Energy Corporation. According to Forbes Magazine, with an estimated worth of $910 million Chase is the richest person in our Land of Enchantment. . .

That $910 million was before the oil price tumbled from over $90 a barrel to the $75 range, but Chase, 83, probably isn't losing much sleep over it. . . 

But many others are losing sleep over the oil price nosedive. It's going to mean many fewer dollars flowing to the state in the form of taxes and royalties. The first round of estimates predict it will mean a $50 to $100 million loss for the budget that begins July 1, 2015. But it may be much more as bear markets have a way of surprising on the downside just as bull markets surprise on the upside. . . 

Little is mentioned of the possible loss of high-paying oil field jobs in the SE. According to the industry, those jobs pay 40% more than others in the state. . .

For travelers through oil boom country there should be a bright spot--those $200 a night hotel room rates should be history. . . 

We hear much about the state's dependence on the federal government but not much about the state's dependence on the oil industry. Nearly 20% of the NM budget comes from oil and gas taxes and royalties. What if--as we suspect---the bull market in oil is over and the next bull market is years away?. . .

Back in the early 80's the federal budget was being cut by the Reagan administration and at the same time oil prices were crashing. Democratic Gov. Toney Anaya rammed through tax increases to make up the millions in lost revenue. In this era tax hikes of any kind are immediately demonized and any lawmaker out in front of one risks getting his neck cut off on the campaign trail.

Interestingly, this time around it could be a Republican governor who in a few years might have to grapple with a revenue dilemma similar to the one confronted by Gov. Anaya.

GOING DARK

When a journalist abandons ship to take a PR job with the government he's covered it's known as going to the "dark side." So it is for veteran Associated Press correspondent Barry Massey who after 35 years with the news service--21 of the them in Santa Fe--will become legislative liaison and PIO for the Administrative Office for the Courts. The AP has been decimated by budget cuts in recent years and Massey has of late been the sole Capitol presence for the legendary wire service.

Massey was known for his quality coverage of state government but his passage is a reminder of a perennial problem with journalism, especially in a job-starved state like this. With state government jobs beckoning, does the public get the aggressive and adversarial news reporting it should expect? Or do journalists who might have their eye on the "dark side" hold back? Remember how Big Bill seemed to hire half the press corp as state PIO's when he took over? Journalists, you can now begin your navel-gazing.

NO FAIRY DUST

Right-to-work is back as a New Mexico political catch phrase as the GOP takes control of the state House and will offer up the controversial legislation, but a veteran government official writes in that right-to-work is hardly a panacea for economic development:

I've talked to dozens of businesses in the last 5 years-some that are expanding and some that are relocating. Not once has Right to Work come up in our discussions. What has come up is the need for capital/financing, infrastructure, higher quality education and a better-trained workforce. Right to Work is not some fairy dust sprinkled on states that magically saves their economy. It's a convenient excuse some politicians use to steer our attention away from their ability to get at the tougher real issues holding back our economy and satisfy the interest groups that support them.

Why aren't business leaders talking about that? Maybe because it is going to take money--investing in ourselves--and that means government spending, something the neoconservative business community can't stomach. But, hey, it's their businesses getting killed. Maybe we should pass a right-to-die bill for them along with right-to-work.

IN THE SPOTLIGHT

When NM Rep. Ben Ray Lujan was named head of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee we blogged that you could soon expect him to join the talking heads on the cable news networks. Well, it didn't take long. Here he is making his MSNBC debut as DCCC chair with the network's Rachel Maddow. As expected it was a friendly interview but it revealed that Lujan can handle the spotlight as he dished up Democratic boilerplate with ease. The heat will be a notch higher if and when he enters the lion's den at Fox News. . .

This is the home of New Mexico politics.

E-mail your news and comments. (jmonahan@ix.netcom.com)

Interested in reaching New Mexico's most informed audience? Advertise here.      

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2014. Not for reproduction without permission of the author

Monday, November 24, 2014

Race For GOP Chair Takes A Twist With New Face, Plus: A Stiff Challenge Awaits House Dem Leader Egolf, And: Our Caption Contest Entries And The Winner 

There's a late entrant in the race for the chairmanship of the NM Republican Party and she has some well-known allies that could help put her over the top.

Deborah Weh Maestas is the daughter of former GOP chairman and '14 US Senate candidate Allen Weh. And her candidacy is being supported by another former GOP chair--Harvey Yates, Jr.

Republican central committee members will meet December 6 to name a replacement for outgoing chairman John Billingsley. In addition to Maestas, Torrance County GOP chairman Rick Lopez and political consultant Max Barnett are in the running. There was a candidacy brewing from GOP state Representative Zach Cook but he decided not to run.

In a letter to the GOP delegates, Maestas, who served as deputy manager for her father's Senate campaign, said:

We must build better party unity in preparation for 2016. New Mexico has been a red state before, and can be again, but we must work together to do it! We have had a historic change with the recent GOP takeover of the State House, but we need to strengthen that majority as well as increase our numbers in the State Senate.

Maestas said she previously worked in management for her father's CSI Aviation company. She is married to Steve Maestas, co-founder of Maestas and Ward Commercial Real Estate who was recently named chairman of the Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank,

Maestas would not be the first woman to serve as GOP chair. Former state Senator Ramsay Gorham held the post in 2003 when the party was fractured. She was eventually ousted and replaced by Allen Weh.

Coincidentally, on the day Maestas announced her chair bid we ran into her having coffee with none other than former chairman Yates. That reference to "unity" she made certainly comes into play with him as he has battled vigorously with Governor Martinez's chief political adviser Jay McCleskey. And Allen Weh has also had his differences with McCleskey whose powerful role in the Martinez administration has shunted aside many previous players. We asked Yates if McCleskey was supporting Maestas for chair?  He cracked a smile and said: "You can tell Jay I told him he is supporting her candidacy."

Aah, unity. . .

EGOLF'S ERA

Rep. Egolf
Compromise has its limits, says new state House Minority Leader Brian Egolf. The 38 year old attorney from Santa Fe will surely be put to the test over that statement when the 60 day legislative session convenes January 20 with the House under control of the R's for the first time in 60 years.

Egolf was named minority leader on the first ballot by the 33 House Dems at Saturday's caucus. ABQ Rep. Sheryl Williams Stapleton was elected as minority whip and ABQ Rep. Patricia Roybal Caballero was picked for caucus chair,

Outgoing Democratic House Speaker Ken Martinez established himself as a Santa Fe accommodationist with a penchant for crafting backroom deals with the House R's and the Martinez administration. His swerve to the center-right is seen as one key reason for the disaster that befell the Dems Nov. 4 when they lost the governorship, the state House and two statewide offices. (The land commission contest will go to a recount).

While Martinez was the architect of the Dems doomed strategy, Egolf was a subcontractor who went along for the ride. He now has to separate himself from that past by clearly defining the differences between the two parties and taking the inevitable hits that the GOP machine will fire his way.

Egolf may be fighting an uphill battle as it is not just the R's he has to worry about.

The Dem pollsters, consultants, lobbyists and hangers-on who provided so much sycophantic support to Ken Martinez will be back in force urging Egolf to play nice, just wait it out and the Dems will naturally win in '16 with a heavy turnout. That's the siren song that has led to the weakest Democratic Party in decades. Leader Egolf will need a lot of courage as well as a good set of earplugs.

CAPTION CONTEST

It seems the bridgegate scandal that knocked New Jersey Gov. Christie was a defining moment for him--at least with many of our readers who took part in our photo caption contest. It featured a pic of Governors Christie and Martinez aboard her campaign bus. Here are some of the entries and the winning caption at the end:

Gerald McBride: "You know, Chris, I really think now is not the time to burn any bridges..."

Mike Santullo: "Ohhhh, c'mon Chris... Don't believe everything you hear. Our chicharrones can only add a pound at best!

Edwina Gardner: “Don’t worry, Chris, we won’t be stopped for long. Our bridges are much shorter than yours”.

Jim Baca: "Susana, could you give me that recipe for chicharrones? Mmmm!"

Joel Gay: "OK, now try this, Chris:: 'Hola amigos, me llama es Chris!'"

Dennis Gabaldon: "Como que no, I can see Mejico from my portal"

Anonymous: "Tell you what, Chris. You lose 50 pounds and I'll lose 50 pounds, and we'll see who's the biggest loser."

Kevin Bursell: "Well Chris, I can definitely see you on the team, but Secretary of Transportation is not going to happen"

Anonymous: "You know, Chris, they now make Spanx for men. I can show you how to order them on-line."

Andrew Dalton: "I'm not getting up until I get more those fried pork things"... *sigh* "Chris, we are never going to get Hispanics to vote for us, are we?"

F.A. Schmidt: Susana: "Try Atkins, it worked for me!" Christie: "So What?"

Steve Cobble: "So, Susana, you get the racino, and I get the bridge, right?"

Michael Corwin: "So Chris, you've gone about it all wrong with all that yelling... Instead do what I do. Run NCIC's on your enemies, control the state's largest paper, and act like the victim whenever you get caught."

Don Wencewicz: "I know how you feel. Hillary's more popular than me also."

Paul Sandman: "Chris, can I have a chef at the V.P. mansion? I'm tired of my husband's baloney sandwiches."

Tony Griego: "Oh, come on Chris, you can have two more chicharron burritos. . . "

And the winner is:

James Cooke: "Sure, Chris. I could shut down a bridge. We've got plenty of bridges. They all run over dry rivers. Now shutting down mental healthcare...that was a challenge."

Congrats, James. You win the lunch for two at ABQ's Barelas Coffeehouse where you can sample those famous chicharrones. Thanks to all who took part in the caption contest and gave us some good laughs. We'll do another one soon. . .

This is the home of New Mexico politics.

E-mail your news and comments. (jmonahan@ix.netcom.com)

Interested in reaching New Mexico's most informed audience? Advertise here.      

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2014. Not for reproduction without permission of the author
 
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