Let's add up the recent casualty list:

---The Republican Secretary of State stands charged with multiple felonies for allegedly raiding her campaign funds to go on a multi-year casino spree.

---The Republican  Secretary of Taxation and Revenue is accused of using improper influence to benefit a former client of her CPA business.

---The Democratic State Treasurer is accused by the State Personnel Department of making sexist and racist comments. (Treasuer Eichenberg's response here).

---Two Democratic State Representatives are busted for filing flawed campaign finance reports.

---The Superintendent of the ABQ Public schools is forced out amid scandal over the hiring of an alleged pedophile to a top administrative position.

Does this catalog of scandal inspire outrage that gets voters out of their recliners or disgust that turns to apathy? Unfortunately, it is probably be the latter.

When folks start thinking "all the politicians do it" they feel powerless. That, in turn, can lower voter turnout. That benefits the party with the most likely voters--the Republicans. The more the R's can portray government as a mud wrestling pit involving players of all political stripes, the more they can control the playing field. Cynical? Yes. True? Yes.

SPACEPORT WOES

We finish the week with insightful analysis and comment on the NM Spaceport from Republican Brent Eastwood:

I just read this WSJ article on Virgin Galactic: "Virgin Galactic to Unveil Enhanced LauncherOne Rocket." It appears that Virgin Galactic is diversifying its business plan and pivoting to launching micro satellites into orbit--quite a departure from sending tourists into space. No mention of New Mexico and Virgin CEO George Whitesides could not be pinned down on when the new version of SpaceShip Two would begin powered testing again. Most experts, according to the article, say February, 2016, at the earliest.I checked the Spaceport website to see what was going on.

“We are the home to Virgin Galactic’s WhiteKnightTwo and SpaceShipTwo. We are also home to SpaceX’s Falcon 9R.”

Excuse me? Those Spacecraft are based at Mojave Air and Space Port and they are going to be in Mojave for a long, long time. That is Rep. Kevin McCarthy’s district and he has no intention of allowing those spacecraft to move to New Mexico.

Home to SpaceX’s Falcon 9R? Everybody knows that SpaceX uses two orbital launch sites at Cape Canaveral in Florida and at Vandenberg Air Force Base in California. SpaceX has their suborbital rocket development and test facility in Texas and they want to lease another orbital launch center in Florida.

The last I checked, SpaceX had a tiny office at Spaceport America and were paying some pittance of a lease. But home to Falcon 9R? I think what they are trying to say is that in the future New Mexico could be the testing location for recovered booster rockets from SpaceX in the future. (See this.) But it is not home to the program.

When do we start telling the truth? It is one ugly baby and I understand nobody wants to look at the ugly baby. But legislators need to start asking tougher questions before the next legislative session.

Good stuff you won't find anywhere else. That's why. . .

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Lt. Gov. Sanchez

Did ABQ Mayor Richard Berry upset his political apple cart when he decried the tactics of an anti-abortion group active in an ABQ City Council race? Lt. Governor John Sanchez, like Berry a probable contender for the '18 GOP Guv nomination, isn't saying that but he could be said to be acting like it.

Sanchez's office confirms that the Light Guv met with a small group of pro-life advocates Wednesday, only days after Berry put up a YouTube video asking Protest ABQ to cease showing graphic depictions of abortions in SE Heights District 6, saying they were frightening children.

Berry's video may have appealed to many Democrats and moderates, but they have nothing to say about the GOP nomination whereas the pro-life community does. A Senior Alligator comments:

Berry's video was unnecessary and a mistake from a statewide view. It was as if he was assuming the GOP nomination is his and is already trying to appeal to the state at large. That is a miscalculation. Lt. Gov. Sanchez is a major barrier for Berry to overcome and by alienating an important GOP constituency Berry has made his path to the nomination more difficult and perhaps easier for John. Remember conservative Steve Pearce versus moderate Heather Wilson for the 2008 US Senate nomination? We know how that one ended.

Tara Shaver, head of the Protest ABQ ministry, said Berry has "done nothing" to reduce abortions during his time as mayor. Sanchez's office says Shaver was not among those at Wednesday's meeting. They said Sanchez has had regular meetings with pro-life groups but until now no such meetings had the significant statewide political implications of this one.

MORE BERRY PATCH

On the very day we got the news of a big jump in the ABQ crime rate from 2010-2014, Mayor Berry comes with this:

Mayor Berry and APD have come up with a safer way for community members to exchange items purchased over internet on sites like Craigslist. The City of Albuquerque will begin providing monitored, secure locations, known as Exchange Zones. The zones will soon be established in each of the parking lots at APD’s six area command substations. Mayor Berry and APD believe these Exchange Zones, will help reduce potential dangers to both buyers and sellers.

Talk about a disconnect. Concern about Craigslist but no comment from the Mayor on the leap in crime far surpassing the growth in population and continuing the city's hurtful reputation as crime-ridden?

Berry took office in December of 2009. His major TV ad back then faulted Mayor Marty Chavez for presiding over a skyrocketing rate of property crime. So how is Berry doing? From 2010 through 2014, property crimes in the city are up 15 percent, according to the FBI uniform crime report. Ditto for violent crimes. Meanwhile, the population during that time grew by a mere 2.4 percent.

MARTY'S MISSED MARK

And former Mayor Marty Chavez also seems to be suffering from a great disconnect. With all the problems the city has had with crime, APD and its floundering economy, the former His Honor comes with this:

(Chavez) who started the 311 service is blasting the city for cutting the hours. But current city staff claim not having a live service overnight saves money. Marty Chavez was Albuquerque's mayor in 2005 when the city launched the 311 service. It’s supposed to be a number where residents can call and get help or answers from different city departments. “This is basic governmental service,” Chavez said. When it was launched, the line was live 24 hours a day, seven days a week. But now when you call after 9 p.m., you get automated message with the service's hours.

Yep, that's what's killing ABQ. You just gotta talk to someone about your garbage pick-up at 3 in the morning. Thanks, Marty.

'TIS THE SEASON

We suppose you can call today the official start of the 2016 election season:

Secretary of State Duran announced that on October 1, 2015 her office will publish the documents and information necessary for potential 2016 Primary Election candidates to begin collecting the necessary petition signatures to qualify for the June 7, 2016 Primary Election ballot. . . Potential candidates can find the required nominating petition form, along with the 2016 Primary Election Candidate Guide on the SOS website.While not eligible for the June 2016 ballot, independent and minor party candidates will find information in the guide pertinent to their campaigns as well.

THE BOTTOM LINES

Arturo Uribe writes from Las Cruces:

I've been reading your blog since you began. Congratulations on 12 years of awesome work. Thank you. I was hoping if you would help us inform your readers especially those in Las Cruces about this candidate forum. Keep up the great work and Write On. . . 

SWOP Action Fund Dona Ana, Nopalito’s Galeria and PRC Productions will be hosting a Las Cruces Mayoral Candidate Forum.This is a non-partisan event and an opportunity for those who are registered to vote in the Las Cruces Municipal election to be educated, informed, and engaged, voters. Forum will begin at 6 p.m., Thursday October 8th 6-8pm at 326 S. Mesquite St.

Las Cruces Mayor Ken Miyagashima is seeking a third term in the Nov. 3 city election. He has two opponents.

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AG Balderas

Welcome back. Today marks the start of our 13th consecutive year of "New Mexico Politics with Joe Monahan" so let's get to it.

Don't look for Attorney General Hector Balderas to cut a plea bargain deal with Secretary of State Dianna Duran in exchange for her to resign. That from a source in the know reacting to speculation here about the possibility of a plea deal.

For now, Duran continues to hang tough when it comes to resigning. The next act in the political melodrama, absent a resignation, will likely come when the state House signals its intention to impeach Duran. She would then be expected to blink and decide to resign rather than become the first official in state history to be disgraced by impeachment.

A senior lawmaker says the House will have plenty of time to ready the impeachment charges for the January legislative session and there should be no delay in taking them up. If for some reason there was a delay, the Governor could call the Legislature into special session to do the task. But that would cost more taxpayer money so the pressure is on to get the job done in the 30 day '16 session.

Having Duran, who is accused of violating the campaign laws she is charged with enforcing, preside over the SOS office in the upcoming election year is the sword hanging over the heads of the Republicans. Quickly dispatching Duran is imperative or the Dems will start banging the war drums in earnest. Right now they are warming up in the bullpen as evidenced by this statement Tuesday from party headquarters:

Enough is enough; Secretary of State Dianna Duran must resign immediately. Rather than performing the duties she was elected to do, Secretary of State Dianna Duran has become singularly focused on abusing the powers of her office to carry out a political vendetta. It is clear that Duran is attempting to distract from the fact that she has been charged with 64 counts of criminal violations that include embezzlement, fraud, money laundering, violations of the Campaign Practice Act, the Governmental Conduct Act, tampering with public records, and conspiracy.

That "vendetta" the party sites is Duran turning over to the AG a campaign finance complaint against ABQ Dem State Rep. Moe Maestas.

AG Balderas has told Duran that because of the charges he has brought against her he is discontinuing his office's legal representation of the SOS and asking that she send campaign ethics complaints to local district attorneys. Duran's office calls it a political move. Balderas says he will continue to handle the Maestas complaint because it was referred to him by the media and not the SOS.

FOREGONE CONCLUSION?

Is impeachment a foregone conclusion?  Recent wondering aloud by ABQ GOP State Rep, Bill Rehm about whether the charges against Duran are possibly ethical but not criminal violations--raised eyebrows. Avoiding impeachment seems politically impossible for the House R's (and the Governor) but how about a motion to censure Duran and not impeach? Highly improbable but thrown on the the table by a Senior Alligator monitoring the situation. The House has hired heavy ABQ legal hitter Robert Gorence to handle the impeachment case.

Back on the plea angle, ABQ Legal Beagle Jeff Baker has some fun with it:

How about the following scenario: Dianna Duran enters a guilty plea to multiple misdemeanors. As part of the deal, she provides a detailed factual basis for each of her guilty pleas, plus she has to acknowledge she has a gambling problem for which she will seek help. She resigns her office, and gets to keep her state pension. The Legislature saves the cost and distraction of impeachment proceedings. Hector Balderas takes credit for (1) getting Dianna Duran out of office and (2)saving the taxpayers the expense of impeachment proceedings. Balderas then calls on the Legislature and Governor to create an independent ethics commission. Everybody wins, sort of.

Intriguing plot line, Jeff. We'll send it up to Hector's place but don't think it will find any takers.

By the way, if Duran is convicted in criminal court of any of the felonies the AG has charged her with, she would lose her state pension and upon conviction would no longer be able to serve as Secretary of State. And one more "by the way." If Duran is impeached by the House and convicted at a trial by the state Senate, she is removed from office but does not lose her state pension as a result.

MOE MONEY

We told you it wouldn't be so bad if you did this, Moe:

Since the (campaign report) discrepancies came to my attention, I have hired a reputable accounting firm to independently reconcile contributions with reports. Once completed, my reports will be amended accordingly and available online.

That would be ABQ Dem State Rep. Antonio "Moe" Maestas to those of you new to this thing of ours.

NOT AGAIN

Here we go. . . yet again:

A new report by WalletHub ranks Albuquerque 404th out of 515 U.S. cities in the 2015 Cities with the Fastest Growing Economies study. . . The survey looked at 10 key metrics, from population growth to job growth, and studied data from 2008 to 2014. Albuquerque's unemployment rate increased by more than 5 percent during the period studied, a big factor in the city's low rating. Albuquerque also had negative growth in regional GDP per capita, number of businesses and median house prices. While the poverty rate decreased by nearly 4.5 percent, the total number of jobs declined.

You almost have to pity city Economic Development Director Gary Oppedahl. He really hasn't had a big jobs score on his watch, but says the bad news bears have been hogging the spotlight, arguing there are quite a few jobs available in the city:

Comcast: 300 positions available at the Customer Care Call Center, Xfinity Store, and in Comcast Field Operations. . . Fidelity Investments: 100 positions, including financial associates, customer service associates and others not requiring a financial services background. . . Flagship Food Group: About 50 positions open. . . 

Oppedahl posted his info on the "goodnewsnm" site. He probably has to go there three times a day to keep his morale up.

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GOP State Rep. Zach Cook, co-chair of the House committee that met Monday to start talking about impeaching Secretary of State Dianna Duran, called the proceedings "solemn." We would argue a better description would be "routine." After all, this is the third time in 10 years that the House has started impeachment proceedings against an elected official. In the previous two cases the officials resigned before they could be impeached. . .

Mr. and Mrs. New Mexico don't see anything Santa Fe does as "solemn." With the economy stagnating for six long years, they long ago tuned out the politicians and the process as witnessed by the crash in voter turnout, the apathetic response to Secretary Duran refusing to resign and the incredible net migration out of the state.

New Mexicans, never a hopeful bunch, have pretty much thrown in the towel on any significant ethics reform. What they hope and pray for are good jobs or a pay hike if they have a job.

The two previous impeachment moves--against Treasurer Michael Vigil and Public Regulation Commissioner Jerome Block--came amid wild bull markets, with high oil prices, growing employment and scads of federal dollars still rolling into the state.  When the good times are rolling, a few bad apples in the barrel are easier to accept.

The Duran scandal comes amid the Great Stagnation that has laid bare our fundamental weaknesses which Santa Fe has chosen to essentially ignore and thus has effectively declared insoluble. The kids catch the vibe and hightail it out of here to the Austin city limits.  When will we get "solemn" about that?

GETTING SQUISHY

As for Duran, you wonder if the state House will get to impeachment during the upcoming 30 day session. The impeachment committee doesn't meet again for another month. . .

Also, can Attorney General Balderas, who brought corruption charges against Secretary Duran for allegedly raiding her campaign funds to gamble in casinos, actually entertain a plea bargain that would reduce the charges from felonies to misdemeanors? Duran would then be able to keep her pension but Balderas could be in for a whole lot of pain. He gets credit for bringing the charges but if he went squishy on Duran, the public might go squishy on him.

OUTTA HERE

What surprised us about this news from the latest newsletter from the Legislative Council Service is that we are the only state in the nation experiencing this:

More people continue to move out of New Mexico than into New Mexico--the only state where this is true. New Mexico's out‐migration was more pronounced in 2014 than in 2013, with 25,000 more people leaving than moving into the state in 2014, up from 10,000 in 2013.

Is that trend continuing in 2015? Is there any reason to think it isn't? New Mexico is increasingly attractive to the older demographic, not the younger. A surprise in the future may be the median age of the state rising  further than today's experts anticipate. Well, maybe not all the experts. John Covert is regional director of the research and consulting firm Metrostudy:

Covert pointed to Albuquerque's impending "senior tsunami." He said Albuquerque's senior population is expected to grow 132 percent by 2030, which will have seniors encompassing one-third of the city's population.

Should we open a prune juice franchise here?

America at large remains an immigrant magnet but not without generating angst:

The Pew report casts light on the uneasiness some Americans have expressed about the shifts in society in the United States. In 1965, the researchers found, whites made up 84 percent of people in the country. By this year, their share had declined sharply, to 62 percent. “Historically this is perhaps the lowest we have seen the non-Hispanic white share in U.S. history,” Mr. Lopez said. According to Pew projections based on current trends, by 2055 whites will lose their majority status in the population, and their share will continue to decline. Pew projects that after 2055, no ethnic or racial group will be a majority of the population.

New Mexico reflects the wave of the future. We've been a majority-minority state for years. Currently only 39 percent of New Mexicans are White, compared to 62 percent of the USA.

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Let's head out to the campaign trail for the final full week of City Election '15. . .

With the October 6 election in sight our analysts say the odds are high that the balance of power on the nine member city council will not shift as a result of the election. They are forecasting that Dem hopeful and Gov. Martinez arch-enemy Pat Davis will obtain 50 percent of the vote in SE Heights Council District 6--scene of the most intense battle this season. Davis has been stung by the Guv's machine but, the analysts say, the liberal bent of the district is emerging and that Davis is in line to score 50 percent in this three way race. That means he would avoid a run-off with Republican Hessito Yntema and keep the seat in the Dem column.

Up in GOP leaning Council District 4 in the NE Heights our insiders, analysts and Alligators are predicting longtime Republican Councilor Brad Winter will triumph over Dem challenger Israel Chavez. Winter has been hit but has sustained no serious damage and the insiders say a low, low turnout means GOP voters will tip the balance to Winter who first came to the council in 1999.

If those predictions are right the Council will stay 5 to 4 Democratic which means the Dems will not have the sixth vote needed to override vetoes from Republican Mayor Richard Berry.

Berry may be sensing the shifting tide in the Davis district. He released a video condemning the gruesome photos used by anti-abortionists against Davis. Is the Mayor looking to soften up Davis a little if he eventually comes on the council? Maybe.

No paid media campaign has emerged to attack the tax hike to finance improvements to the city BioPark and the analysts say that means the odds favor passage. The proposed one eighth of a cent increase in the city gross receipts tax would raise at least $250 million over its 15 year life. There is also a $3.9 million bond issue on the ballot this year that would go to the BioPark. Just how much does the BioPark need? It's not a question that has received much debate.

The gross receipts tax is now well over 7 percent in the city and tax foes see another increase as a detriment to business and further hurting low income individuals who pay a higher percentage of their income in the tax than the well off. But unless there is a last minute paid opposition campaign the images of grandchildren enjoying the zoo and aquarium with their grandparents is likely to prevail.

There is also the question of why we are not financing the BioPark improvements with bond issues backed by property taxes as traditionally has been done. It speaks to the city's fiscal condition under Mayor Berry (sorry, Mayor Marty has been gone for six years and Berry now owns it). But Berry won't even say if he will vote yes or no on the BioPark tax increase thus completely avoiding the bond issue argument. Not that anyone in the sleep-walking media is pressing him.

One other point: Berry and the Berry media keep saying that Mayor Marty funneled money used to back bond issues to the city's general fund to finance ongoing operations and that's the root of the bond capacity problem. But Berry took office in December 2009. He's had nearly six years to follow through on his promise to reverse that. We need bigger bond issues to shore up an aging ABQ. And after six years don't we need more than a blame game from City Hall and its media cohorts to explain why we continue to lag so badly?

DAYS OF DURAN (CONT.)

Dianna Duran's decision--for now--to stay on as Secretary of State and fight calls for her resignation as she battles corruption charges--has heated up the email. Here's Dem Stephanie DuBois--who is running for Otero County Clerk--a job previously held by Duran--countering Dianna:

Joe, I am not afraid to challenge Dianna Duran because she needs to be challenged, We cannot allow her to continue to serve the public when she has obviously screwed the public trust.  I think the people (la gente) should picket her office and put a great deal of pressure on her to resign. We have sent a very bad message to the people of New Mexico and it will heighten the possibility that more elected officials will get better at being corrupt.  This must go to the people especially those who elected her and put their trust in her when she promised to clean up the past corruption in the Secretary of State's office. I believe now the Governor, a Republican, cannot really throw Duran under the bus and will find a way to keep Duran in office. We, the people cannot allow Duran to stay there without consequences. We just can't. 

We may be headed for a game of who blinks first. The state House--controlled by the Republicans--is looking at impeaching Duran in the January legislative session. Will Duran blink and resign if she is impeached? Will the House fail to impeach? Will Gov. Martinez find Dianna a private sector job and make it easier for her to step away? Will the charges against Duran be reduced to misdemeanors so prosecutors get a conviction but Dianna gets to keep her pension? Never a dull moment in La Politica. . .

P.S. Duran has complained that the media has been running photos of her that are unflattering, so today we posted her official photo. Hey, it's the least we can do for the blogging gift the SOS scandal has bestowed.

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