Barnett (2003)

The date was May 14, 2004 and this was the big story on joemonahan.com:

With less than a month to go, political pros in the highest reaches of the state GOP are saying the challenge by ex-state Rep George Buffett to Republican National Committeeman Mickey Barnett is looking more and more like a very long shot. A high-ranking Buffet supporter told me George still has his vote, but he is pessimistic that Barnett can be ousted.

"George is going to have to work it a lot harder. He has sent out a letter, but he hasn't shown us much else. Mickey's forces are well-organized and they know how to count votes. To beat an incumbent in any race takes a special effort, and right now we are seeing that effort from Barnett, but not Buffet."

Lawyer-lobbyist Barnett has been at the center of the GOP battles, going as far as to field candidates in the primary election against other Republicans who don't see things his way. His positions in favor of drug legalization and Indian gambling, targeted by Buffett, have also caused him grief, but apparently not yet the votes he needs when the GOP State Central Committee meets June 12 to decide the committeeman contest.

Buffett went on to pull off a huge upset and oust Barnett as committeeman. Now, 12 years later another incumbent committeeman, Pat Rogers, faces a challenge from former NM GOP Chairman Harvey Yates. Will history repeat at this year's May 21st convention with Yates playing the role of Buffett?

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On the campaign trail. . . In the closely watched Secretary of State race, Republican Nora Espinoza is keeping pace with Dem Maggie Toulouse Oliver in the money race. In fact, she has a bit more cash on hand. As of May 2 Espinoza reports $119 000 in cash in the latest finance filings. Toulouse Oliver has $112,000 in cash. Here's how Governing Magazine sees the contest:

Toulouse Oliver, the current clerk of Bernalillo County. . . ran and lost to (incumbent SOS) Duran in 2014. The Republican candidate is state Rep. Nora Espinoza. Both candidates are reasonably well-known and well-connected, suggesting a competitive contest in the fall.

This one is about turnout. The higher it goes the better for Toulouse Oliver and the lower it goes the better for Espinoza. . .

TORREZ VS. PEREA

In the Dem primary for BernCo District Attorney, Raul Torrez took a newspaper hit this week over a drug case he handled as an assistant US attorney. His foe, retired police officer and attorney Ed Perea says the article called into question Torrez's integrity. But Torrez is expected to come with TV ads soon and Perea doesn't have the money to go up on the tube. Torrez is showing $172,000 in cash on hand. Perea has $39,000 but also $40,000 in campaign debt. The money disparity could make the difference Election Night, June 7th. The unopposed R for DA in the primary is attorney Simon Kubiak.

ALLS IS IN

We noticed on the campaign finance reports that a consulting group called ALLS took in over $80,000 from the House Democratic Campaign Committee for research and polling. The firm is run by longtime campaign fundraiser and field organizer Meredith Dixon and Jennifer Ford, who is a former state director of the national progressive group America Votes.

On the super PAC front in the battle for the Legislature, the game is the same as in '14. Advance NM Now will be at bat for the R's with longtime Martinez consultant Jay McCleskey at the helm. For the Dems, Patriot Majority is back with consultants Dave Contarino and Amanda Cooper. Advance will scoop up conservative Texas cash. Patriot is again expected to lean heavily on national labor for its funding.

CONGRESS CANDIDATE

Richard Priem

It may not be worth a whole lot considering that the ABQ congressional district is solidly blue these days, but Republican Richard Priem is still glad that he'll soon be the GOP nominee who will take on Dem Congresswoman Michelle Lujan Grisham. She is seeking a third term this year.

Priem is the only R candidate seeking the June primary nod. Two years ago Mike Frese edged out Priem for the nomination. Grisham was the heavy favorite then as she is this year. Here's some background on Priem:

Priem (pronounced “Preem”) has a wide and diverse professional background. His Army service included critical assignments in security, law enforcement and anti-terrorism along with an assignment to the U.S. Military Academy at West Point where, as an assistant professor, he taught leadership to cadets. Priem has received numerous awards and decorations for his military service.

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OUCH

The news:

A new national survey says New Mexico’s high school graduation rate is the country’s worst. The state’s four-year adjusted graduation rate for all high school students is 68.5 percent, says the report, Building a Grad Nation, which examines data for the 2013-14 academic year. By contrast, Iowa has the nation’s best high school graduation rate, at 90.5 percent. In New Mexico, more than 40 percent of the state’s high schools are graduating fewer than 67 percent of their students, a dismal record equaled only by Alaska. This applies to schools with more than 100 students.

CHINATOWN

On the brighter side, the state has come with this:

The New Mexico Film Office (has) teamed up with one of China’s online media groups in hopes of producing digital content, including feature films, shorts, TV shows and commercials. Panda iMedia chose New Mexico out of several states:

 “I think they saw the amount of production that was being done here and the accessibility to filmmakers and digital media folks, and they just liked what they saw,” said New Mexico Film Office Director Nick Maniatis. . . Maniatis says the goal is to not only to help Panda produce content they can take back to China, but also to foster a cultural exchange helping to diversify New Mexico’s economy.

A few years ago Santa Fe businessman Gerald Peters urged the city to be more aggressive in going after Chinese tourists in order to boost the economy. That still seems like a worthwhile idea.

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You may not see it in your daily routine but rest assured economic chaos continues in New Mexico. . .

NMSU toys with staff furloughs as it cuts its budget, low potash prices lead to massive layoffs in Eddy County which is already suffering from widespread job losses in the oil fields; layoffs, reported to be 215, loom over Rio Rancho's Intel plant and reimbursement rates for doctors and dentists serving Medicaid patients are about to be chopped because of the impact of the commodities price crash as well as over zealous tax cutting.

What a great time for strong, bold leadership---to restructure and tighten the state's entire higher education complex for the 21st century; to propose a tax policy that positions us for  a long bear market in energy; to attack the social conditions crisis by funding very early childhood from the state's nearly $15 billion Land Grant Permanent Fund and to fund Medicaid--not cutting it--by finding the funds via a new tax policy.

All of this is within a Governor's grasp. Alas, no one is reaching.

STRETCHING FOR DOLLARS

Gov. Martinez's Susana PAC makes a real stretch in its most recent plea for election year dollars:

The Democrats believe that Hillary Clinton will spend millions of dollars in New Mexico this election that will help elect Democrats at all levels. That’s why your help is so critical.  Please donate today and stand with me as I work to help elect Republican legislators in a very challenging election cycle.

Actually, the Dems fear the direct opposite of what the Guv says. They fear that national Dems will spend hardly any money here for get out of the vote efforts because the state is solidly in Clinton's column. Also, there are no competitive congressional races and only one statewide race eon the ballot.

NECK OUT 

ABQ Dem US Rep. Michelle Lujan Grisham has stuck her neck out early in the '18 race for governor so it's natural that they start trying to cut it off. Reader Ron Nelson leads the charge:

She has no schooling in business or economic issues. She will rely on advice from those that will only provide their slanted viewpoints, most likely leading to pay to play.  I’m beginning to like Attorney General Hector Balderas. He is quietly cleaning up that office, and making it more for the people instead of the government pension desk jockeys. He is working with local business groups and is being schooled in some of the economic issues. I also think he is picking and choosing his political battles.

Anna Otero Hatanaka piles on with this:

I had a good chuckle reading your article regarding the economy and Michelle running for governor. As Secretary of the Department of Health under Gov. Richardson, she testified during a budget hearing that payment rates for developmental disability providers would not be an issue because she planned to place everyone into self-directed services thus eliminating community agencies and rate issues.

At that time the community provider system was struggling due to inadequate reimbursement rates and providers were advocating for increases in rates for necessary core services. Not everyone with a developmental disability can or wants to direct their own care. The loss of community programs as recommended by Michelle would have resulted in the loss of thousands of jobs and would have had a huge negative impact on the NM economy. Advocating the destruction of a needed service system for some of the state's most vulnerable citizens reminds me of the recent destruction of the behavioral health system for other vulnerable New Mexicans.

Welcome to Campaign '18, Michelle.

OPPORTNITY NOT KNOCKING

Reader Michael Gross is a former New Mexican who now lives in St. Petersburg, Florida. He writes with passion of the downsizing of Intel in Rio Rancho and the suggestion that the loss of jobs is an "opportunity":

I was an attorney practicing for 32 years in Albuquerque and have since moved to Florida. When I moved to New Mexico in 1972 it was a land of opportunity. I left in 2011 realizing that the downward spiral was getting worse and would never end without huge changes. There will be no opportunity until the fundamentals change and it will take decades. Why?

New Mexico ranks at the bottom for education, at the top for poverty, at the bottom for child development, at the top for crime and drugs, at the bottom for law enforcement morale and staffing and at the top for losing longtime residents and millennials. The bottom and top list goes on and on. New Mexico ranks at the bottom of every important indicator that fuels opportunity. What company would want to locate to Albuquerque?

What company could find the kind of educated, motivated, enthusiastic, creative, innovative, progressive workforce that is drawn to Denver, Phoenix, Salt Lake City?
Have you seen the new high rise condominiums, mass transit, downtown development, night life and social events, new bike paths and hiking trails, new concert halls and community support in those cities recently? Albuquerque does not stand a chance of competing with the neighboring cities that planned for the future and invested in the future. They are now getting all the dividends from those investments while New Mexico is looking at negative growth and opportunity.

In St. Petersburg we have a beautiful new world class Dali Museum, a brand new pier with huge public spaces for events and activities, a beautiful new Tampa international Airport and a no state income tax. How can Albuquerque compete and create opportunity when other cities are already growing and planning and creating an amazing quality of life?

I love New Mexico but there will be no opportunity until the political and civic “leadership” changes and invests where it counts.

TWO STANS

We erred Tuesday when we said conservative  billionaire broadcaster and KOB-TV owner Stanly Hubbard lived in ABQ. He lives in St. Paul, Minnesota. It is his son Stan Hubbard who lives here. He's the CEO of a national cable channel. More here. He must be the one Jay calls when he doesn't like a story on KOB.

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BLOGGING GIFT

UNM is the blogging gift that just keeps on giving. First, they kick the economically important annual Gathering of Nations out of the Pit, saying they could not afford a minuscule 2,500 loss they took this year. Now the athletic department wants to open up the booze spigots at UNM football games and get all the college kids drunk. Okay, everybody. Let's all chant "Go Lobos" in our best slurred speech.

Will UNM's next blogging gift top those whoppers? Stay tuned.

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KOB owner Hubbard

We're back on the Trump train today, with these developments impacting New Mexico. . .

Stanley Hubbard, the billionaire owner of Hubbard Broadcasting, which counts ABQ's KOB-TV among its holdings, has switched sides and is now backing fellow billionaire Trump. Hubbard has been a strong supporter of NM Governor Martinez so the question arises of whether her support for Trump isn't far behind. The news:

Once a big donor to the anti-Trump movement, billionaire broadcasting executive Stanley Hubbard is now backing the presumptive GOP nominee. Hubbard, a prolific giver to Republican candidates and causes, will join the advisory committee of Great America PAC, a pro-Trump super PAC. During the primary, Hubbard cut a $10,000 check to the Our Principles PAC, a group that was devoted to defeating Trump. . . Hubbard said he was still no fan of Trump, but he said that he viewed him as a better choice than Hillary Clinton. And he called on the party’s donor class. . . to get on board.

Another reason you may see Martinez eventually give grudging formal support to Trump is New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie. He has been named director of the transition in the event Trump wins the presidency. Martinez has a history with Christie who has campaigned for her in New Mexico and she for him in New Jersey. He could be her entree into a Trump White House, no matter how long a shot that seems now.

Martinez, chair of the Republican Governors Association, says because of that role she will attend the GOP national convention in Cleveland in July. She says she wants Trump to call on her and explain what his presidency would mean for New Mexico.

Hmm. Don't you think if she really wants to curry favor for the state, it is she who might want to give the first kiss?

A top staffer for Trump basically ruled out Martinez for VP in a Fox News interview last week, a surprise to no serious state politics watcher.

TRUMP BUMP?

Gary Johnson

Former NM GOP Gov. Gary Johnson, again seeking the Libertarian Party nomination for president and expected to win it,  is drawing more attention as castaways from the Trump candidacy look for something to grab onto, but he faces much skepticism:

Johnson, who quit his job as a marijuana marketing executive to run for president, holds strident Libertarian views that fall outside of mainstream conservatism. Some don’t take him seriously because of his embrace of marijuana and his free-spirited nature – he kissed fellow Libertarian candidate John McAfee at a debate in April.

“He might be an outlet for some protest votes, but if your concern with Donald Trump is that he’s not presidential enough, I’m not sure why Gary Johnson would be your guy,” said Ryan Williams, a veteran of Mitt Romney’s 2012 campaign.

If Johnson could poll at 15 percent in several national polls he would win a slot in the presidential debates.

WE'RE VERY BLUE

Here's more from the WaPo's Chris Cillizza on how our state fits into the national presidential map:

The current Republican disadvantage in the electoral map is less about any individual candidate than it is about demographics. As the country, and the voting public, has become less white. . .  a number of states have moved toward Democrats over the past decade.

Perhaps the best example of this movement and how it has hurt Republicans is New Mexico, whose population is almost half Hispanic. In 2004, George W. Bush won the Land of Enchantment in his bid for a second term. (His margin over John F. Kerry was 5,988 votes.) Eight years later, Obama won the state by 10 percentage points over Mitt Romney; neither side targeted it in any meaningful way. In 2016, it’s not even on the long list of potentially competitive states.

We seem more likely to get a Trump visit before our June 7th primary than after it.

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WRONG AGAIN?

Just about everyone was wrong about Trump during the primary season. Could it be possible they are wrong again and Trump could pull off the NM upset? Taos attorney Sam Herrera writes in and tries to make the case:

Joe:  I think the pundits could be wrong about Trump losing NM. They think that just because nationally 79% of Hispanics hate him, that the same rules apply here. I know a few Hispanics (many in my family) who love Trump. They love his anti-immigrant/anti-Hispanic rhetoric. They are too brainwashed to realize that when Trump bashes Latin immigrants, he is bashing them. They have never left New Mexico so do not know anything different. . . My point is this: due to the unique nature and history of the Hispanics of New Mexico, and in particular, Northern NM, don't think that Trump has no chance here.

TRUMP VICTORY PATH


Republican Brent Eastwood in DC did make a very early call here for Trump to emerge as the GOP nominee. He is sticking with Trump to take the general election, but if he was forced to put some money on the line, he might balk:

I will stay with Trump, but he has a difficult and narrow path to victory with little room for error. The electoral map favors Democrats. Trump's current disapprovals are in the low 60's. A unifying and presidential-sounding speech at the GOP convention is essential for Trump to get those numbers down. He needs a perfect October with clear debate wins and he needs Hillary to have a negative October surprise. And then during the last 72 hours, he needs a lot of independents and conservative Democrats to hold their nose, shrug their shoulders and switch to him. . . A substantial number of people could secretly go for Trump even though they tell pollsters, friends and family otherwise. Like I said, he has to get all the late breaks.

Brent, you ought to be a hedge fund manager.

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It's rare--if not almost unheard of--for any really prominent state Democrats to take a public swipe at Republican Governor Susana Martinez, but ABQ Dem Congresswoman Michelle Lujan Grisham has broken the silence as she eyes the '18 governor's race. In a newspaper op-ed she focuses on the lagging state economy, saying:

Everybody agrees we need to diversify the economy. But how? Clearly, the governor's policies have not resulted in economic growth. Instead, we have less tax revenue for state government and few options to make the investments we need in this state. . . 

Rather than backing away from federal government funding to enhance the state's economy--as the Santa Fe administration has repeatedly urged--Lujan Grisham is embracing the federal presence. She argues that there is over $200 million in small business contracts that Sandia Labs awards to out-of-state businesses, a pile of money she says "we can fight for."

Now the politics of this. Lujan Grisham, expected to easily win a third, two year term this November, is telling friends of her intention to seek the '18 Democratic gubernatorial nomination. Also eyeing a bid is Attorney General Hector Balderas. The nomination is not going to be decided by who is most gentle on Martinez, The Democratic base is going to want some red meat after eight years of being repressed. Further, the election itself will only go the Dems way if they can discredit the policies of the sitting governor since the likely GOP nominee is Lt. Gov. Sanchez.

So the determined ABQ congresswoman is first out of the gate. Balderas has been hesitant to take on Martinez, but if he hopes to go for the gold he may be forced to or else take a pass on the contest.

And, yes, the political conversation has already jumped to '18 because of the lack of high stakes in ''16. NM will not be a swing state in the presidential election, the state Senate is not going to the R's and no matter who controls the state House gridlock will continue. Given that unappetizing scenario no wonder the political junkies are hungry for the '18 action.

ROGERS VS. YATES

Rogers & Yates

Meanwhile, the Republican infighting over the post of NM GOP National Committeeman (and possibly the future GOP) continues and we have more of our exclusive coverage. . .

We are nearing the May 21 state convention where the battle will be fully joined between current committeeman Pat Rogers, part of the Guv's machine, and former NM GOP Chairman Harvey Yates, an avowed enemy of the machine and its leader, Martinez political consultant Jay McCleskey.

Yates came last week with a big public endorsement from southern NM GOP Congressman Steve Pearce. Now Rogers answers with endorsements from leading state House Republicans who came with this letter to the convention delegates:

Winning control of the state House was a true team effort and no one was more important to that team than Pat Rogers. Having worked closely with Pat. . . we have seen him spend countless hours on election-related litigation without compensation and, but for his efforts, we would not be in the position we are now as a Party.  Pat has always put fighting to help all Republicans first and that’s why he worked so hard to win the House redistricting case. . .Pat has been an outstanding RNC National Committeeman who fights to unite our party. . . 

The letter was signed by GOP State Reps and committee chairmen Zach Cook, Jason Harper, and Jim Smith. Also signing were House Majority Leader Gentry and Reps Youngblood,  Clahchischilliage, Pacheco and James.

There's more. Yates is receiving important Tea Party support from Sylvia Bokor whose newsletter is widely circulated in conservative circles. She endorsed Yates over Rogers after a Friday Republican breakfast:

(Yates) was as blunt in his responses to attendees’ questions. . . He. . . spoke of things most of us know and evaluate according to what the Constitution indicates we should expect of our government. For instance, he spoke candidly of Jay McCleskey who is not an elected or appointed official but controls many important aspects of government. Harvey Yates is running for an important position in New Mexico politics. We wish him success. He shows that he deserves the post and would be extremely good for New Mexico in that position.

Who needs Trump to divide a party? This race is as much about the enmity between Jay and Harvey as it is about keeping Rogers around.

P.S. Thanks to Mark Bralley for the cool photos our two GOP warriors, even if he is making us buy him dinner at Garcia's for the use of them.

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GATOR STRIKE

This is what the kids call an "optics problem." UNM says it can't absorb a tiny $2,300 loss to its athletic department so it is not going to to keep the annual Native American Gathering of Nations at the UNM Pit--a gathering which has an estimated $20 million economic impact in ABQ. Meanwhile:

An audit report released Friday by the University of New Mexico indicates former men’s basketball operations director Cody Hopkins committed fraud with a team purchasing card for personal use, including $63,418 in “unallowable” activity on the card.

And that, UNM President Bob Frank, VP David Harris and Athletic Director Paul Krebs is an Alligator Strike. Congrats, or something. . .

SEND A CHECK

Then there's the state Republican Party announcing it would charge reporters $100 each to cover the party's upcoming state convention. They retracted that within 24 hours. That's good because just looking at our coverage today of the GOP, the R's should be paying us five hundred bucks a blog for telling them what's really happening in their party.

This is it. . .

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