APO And MLG

The spat between Dem Guv nominee Michelle Lujan Grisham and Jeff Apodaca, who she soundly defeated in the June primary, has grown into a feud.

The MLG camp, responding to a Facebook post from Apodaca that was carried here Tuesday and that claimed MLG told Apodaca to "fuck off, you cost me $2 million in the primary" at a post-primary meeting, takes him down hard.

This is not an off the record response. It is an official response and comes from Lujan Grisham campaign manager Dominic Gabello who said he was at the June 15 MLG-APO meet. Buckle up for this one:

Joe, I was in the room when Michelle met with Jeff so I have a first-hand account to what actually transpired. . . Jeff’s fictionalized portrayal of that meeting with Michelle couldn’t go unanswered any longer. . . I took detailed notes of the meeting.

For starters, Jeff was less than gracious after his humiliating defeat. On election night, he refused to call Michelle to congratulate her and pledge his support unlike (primary opponent) Senator Joseph Cervantes who called that night and who is fully supporting Michelle.

When Jeff showed up at our campaign office, he lectured us on his policy positions and gave us his stump speech, apparently unable to accept the fact that his campaign was over. He did not "offer to work together to get her elected" as he claims. That’s a flat out lie. His entire demeanor was not that of a candidate who was conceding or willing to endorse the opponent who vanquished him rather easily. It was clear that Jeff was putting Michelle on notice, that he is watching the candidates and will be deciding which way he and "his" voters were going to go in the general election as if he had some magic power over the 22% of the primary electorate who voted for him. 

Throughout the meeting, Michelle was kind, engaging and friendly. She never used the vulgar language that Jeff purports she did, although I wouldn’t blame her if she was thinking it. His entire characterization of the conversation is false. Michelle talked in detail about how she wants to turn out every possible voter, especially young, rural, and Hispanic voters. And she sat there for 45 minutes, with restraint, and listened to the absolute arrogant bullshit Jeff was spewing, yet she continued to treat him with respect, something he has never shown her. 

Gabello

She asked Jeff what a productive role for him in our campaign would be – and he didn’t have an answer other than ‘wanting to hold our state accountable – whether he was in a public or private role." What motive would she have to do so – we won! And we had already moved on to Steve Pearce. 

I get it. Jeff thought he should have won--he had the last name, the Republican-front group tearing down Michelle with lies. . . and his money connections in California and New York from his years in business there. Yet, when it came to the voters, they saw through this empty suit, and sent the most qualified candidate into the general election with an overwhelming mandate. And, contrary to Jeff's claim, Michelle doesn't take a single vote for granted. She is fighting to earn every single vote. . .

I’ve already spent too much time on this and need to get back to focusing on defeating Steve Pearce, who would be an even worse governor than Gov. Martinez has been, if that’s possible. Perhaps if Jeff were a true Democrat, he would stop his pettiness, get over his defeat and do the same.

Pretty stunning stuff as was Apodaca's version of the meeting. By putting their response on the record, the MLG camp is signaling that if she is elected Governor she is unlikely to humor her harshest critics, even if they come from the same side of the political aisle.

It has been middle-aged and older Hispanic men like Jeff Apodaca and his former Governor father Jerry Apodaca, who has endorsed Steve Pearce, who have been the wing of the party most troublesome for Lujan Grisham. But with a recent poll showing her getting 87 percent Democratic support the trouble has been more like a pin prick rather than a deep wound. Still, if she is victorious the feud could follow her into the Fifth Floor and maybe on to the floor of the Senate. Here's how. . .

HISPANIC DISCONTENT

Sen. Padilla

A big day in DC today for the Supreme court nomination of Brett Kavanaugh as well as the #MeToo movement. And we have a bit of news lingering from that moment right here in River City.

Sources close to the State Senate Democratic caucus are reporting that ABQ Senator Michael Padilla appears to be preparing to try to win back the position of Senate Majority Whip.

That's a real eyebrow raiser because Padilla was stripped of the post after being forced to withdraw from the lieutenant governor race last November after Lujan Grisham publicly called on him to quit. In doing so, she cited years-old sex harassment charges against Padilla that had been legally settled but were surfacing as a political issue. As her running mate, the baggage would have weighed her down considerably, especially considering the ongoing revelations of the national #MeToo movement.

But the potential Padilla power play is not a revenge move on MLG, the insiders say. It's about the continuing dissatisfaction of Hispanic senators with their lack of leadership positions in the Senate.

The all Anglo leadership team is: Senator Peter Wirth as Majority Leader, Mimi Stewart replaced Senator Padilla as Whip, Mary Kay Papen is President Pro Tem and John Arthur Smith is chairman of the powerful Senate Finance Committee. In a majority-minority state and in a body where in the past Hispanic leaders have been omnipresent, their current absence is notable. In fact, this year Senator Jacob Candelaria was instrumental in forming a first of it's kind Hispanic Caucus in the Legislature.

If Padilla were to make a comeback it would come at the Senate caucus meeting following the November election. To pull it off he would have to make sure two other Hispanic Senators--ABQ's Candelaria and Linda Lopez--who both ran for Whip when Padilla was ousted but lost to Stewart--and did not run again. You have to wonder how the MLG forces would take to a resurrection of the man who was one of the first to fall to #MeToo. But then Governors don't run the Senate and if they do not for long.

Padilla did not respond to questions about a possible run for Whip but sources say he has met with Senators about a comeback. He recently endorsed MLG during a radio interview. Sen. Stewart is expected to again seek the post.

And there you have two big stories today on the intricacies of New Mexican politics that only those most schooled in the fine art of La Politica can navigate.

THE BOTTOM LINES

A reader who calls himself "The Geography Geek" writes of our error in a first blog draft Wednesday when we described State House District #68 where GOP Rep. Monica Youngblood is seeking re-election:

Your description of Youngblood's district is wrong. It is basically North Taylor Ranch to Cottonwood area. It stops at Coors, never gets to the river. Here's the map. . .

But can they get Dion's?

Worried about morale, the Army set out on a long-term effort to upgrade the menu with items that the troops might actually like. And its food scientists have finally hit on what many say is the holy grail of field rations: the M.R.E. pizza. Now being shipped to military bases around the world, the newest of 24 current M.R.E. options is a humble three-by-five-inch Sicilian-style slice, scattered with melt-proof shreds of mozzarella and pebbles of mild pepperoni, sealed in a dun-colored laminate pouch.

Of course, the New Mexico soldiers are waiting for the green chile topping.

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Rep. Youngblood

You can say there's blood in the water in the battle for ABQ House District 68. It's that of GOP State Rep. Monica Youngblood now that she has been convicted of aggravated DWI and awaits sentencing.

Once a rising star in the state GOP, Youngblood, first elected by a ten point margin in 2012 and re-elected without opposition in both '14 and '16, now faces an intense campaign to keep her seat against an unlikely opponent--72 year old retired minister and special ed teacher Karen Bash.

In a statement after her conviction by ABQ Metro Court Pro tem Judge Kevin Fitzwater, a fellow Republican, Youngblood seemed aware that her political career could be at an end:

There’s not a day that I don’t wake up and regret the situation that occurred that evening. I want to continue to apologize to my constituents for that evening, and will accept the consequences as they come throughout this process.

If the Dems have their way the consequences will be the unexpected pick up of a state House seat. Bash, who served as a minister at various churches in Iowa for over 25 years, had only $14,000 in her bank account September 3, compared to $56,000 for Youngblood. But the PACS, like labor funded Patriot Majority with over $700,000 banked as of Sept. 3, are expected to do the dirty work on Youngblood.

It will be interesting to see if the GOP PACS play in the race or let Monica, a native of the South Valley (Monica Lopez) and a realtor, fend for herself with that $56k.

The state rep refused to take a breath test when arrested and that resulted in the "aggravated" DWI which carries a mandatory penalty of 48 hours in jail.

GOP leaders have been criticized for not immediately calling for Youngblood to resign following her May arrest so they could get a replacement. Now they seem prepared to lose the seat and look to take it back in 2020.

Karen Bash

The district was a real battleground in the '16 presidential race. Trump narrowly lost it to Hillary Clinton (with the help of Gary Johnson who peeled away R votes)--43.6% to 42.9%. Democratic registration is 39%, Republican 38, Independents 22 and others make up the rest.

The NW district has had a distinct Republican lean but it's not everyday your sitting House member gets an aggravated DWI. The race is definitely in play.

Even with this gift horse the Dems are being closely watched for how they perform since they are often known for ignoring the blood in the water. They are going to have to mount an effective negative campaign featuring that damaging and humiliating lapel camera video of Youngblood's arrest.

Bash, who has a Master of Divinity degree from Dubuque Theological Seminary and has lived in ABQ for seven years, posted this comment on Facebook:

We all know DWI is a deadly scourge on New Mexico. I am disappointed that Representative Youngblood failed to take advantage of the many alternatives to driving while intoxicated. I am also disappointed that she first tried to use her political position to avoid being arrested, and later, at trial, attacked the credibility of the Albuquerque police officers who stopped her. New Mexicans deserve more than tough talk on DWI -- they deserve representatives who lead by example. This will be my only statement on this issue.

THE RISE AND FALL

The rise and fall of Youngblood is another sentence in the final chapter of the Governor Martinez political machine. She was defended at her DWI trial by noted machine attorney Paul Kennedy who this time could not pull the rabbit out of his hat. Youngblood's main legislative ally--House Minority Leader Nate Gentry--has chosen not to run for re-election. And the consultant all of them relied on--Jay McCleskey--is now left to consult lower ballot races for the NM Court of Appeals not the premier top ballot contests. And, of course, as reported this week, Gov. Martinez's approval rating has sunk to 35 percent.

SOUR ON APO

Reader Michael Parks, a Michelle Lujan Grisham supporter, rebuts those comments made on Facebook and carried here from unsuccessful Dem Guv nominee Jeff Apodaca that MLG has engaged in "corruption":

Dem US Senator Martin Heinrich comes with an unexplored angle in this 60 second spot--ecotourism to boost the state economy:

. . . A ten billion dollar (national) industry with 100,000 jobs and more to come. I envision an outdoor recreation economy that rivals any western state; a world class trail system in our national forests; outdoor adventure that brings visitors from near and far and protects our land and water while creating jobs across New Mexico.

A couple of years ago we did a series of blogs on the Taos area economy that made us aware that the new generations are not as tuned in to Western art and Native American crafts as previous generations. Locals talked of visitors who wanted to raft, canoe, ski and hike but not spend much time in the art galleries or local shops. The recent renovation of Taos Ski Valley should help.

KAVANAUGH DEBATE

Meanwhile, emotions are running high on both sides over the nomination of Brett Kavanaugh to the US Supreme Court. For example, the usually mild-mannered Heinrich said he was "disgusted" by a statement his Republican foe, Mick Rich, made about the nomination fight. Rich said:

I would like to see Martin Heinrich go to a high school and tell those students, ‘If you went to a party and behaved inappropriately, you have no future.’ ”

To which Heinrich retorted:

I am disgusted by these comments that perpetuate the toxic culture that has allowed sexual assault to be so pervasive in our society.

Supporters of political newcomer Rich blasted back that Heinrich is just pandering to his political base with the rough language. But Rich did clarify that he believes both Kavanaugh and his accuser “need to be able to address their case… I don’t think there should be a rush to judgment.”

KELLER CORNER

We did a report last week citing a City Hall insider who said Mayor Keller's approval rating was in the vicinity of what he had won election with last year--62%. Well, a day after that the ABQ Journal poll came out showing Keller's approval right at 62%. His long term popularity will be determined by how he deals with the crime epidemic. The FBI stats just out for 2017 are discouraging, but the administration says crime in recent months has actually declined some.

THE BOTTOM LINES

For Campaign 2018 we're glad to welcome a generation of new and younger readers to NM Politics with Joe Monahan for our exclusive campaign coverage. Stick around, kids, and learn how the old school operates. And if you're interested in the action from any of the campaigns of the past 15 years in New Mexico, check out our archives on the right hand side of the blog. Thanks for joining the party.

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Today's blog is R rated or at least this first piece. . .

Unsuccessful Dem Guv candidate Jeff Apodaca is pushing back on Facebook against those who say he should get in line and endorse Dem nominee Michelle Lujan Grisham. Not going to happen. Take a look at this heated response Apodaca posted on Facebook:

. . . Sorry but I will not just fall in line when I have seen the corruption from our nominee. . . It’s not about the party anymore, it’s about what’s best for New Mexicans. I’m tired of our elected officials creating fourth degree felonies while making millions off taxpayers. . .You all can continue to call me sour grapes. . . The facts are, I met with Michelle and congratulated her and. . . offered to work together to get her elected. . .At our meeting she had her corruption business partner. . .  in the meeting and told me to “Fuck off, you cost me $2 million in the primary. I don’t need your help and the 35 percent of the Dems that didn’t vote for me, who are they going to vote for, Pearce? I don’t think so."

The alleged corruption Apodaca is referring to is MLG's role in Delta Consulting which has become a centerpiece of the Pearce campaign and which Apodaca used against her in the June primary. The "business partner" he references is ABQ Dem State Rep. Deborah Armstrong, who co-founded Delta with MLG and until recently served as her campaign treasurer.

In addition to Delta another ethics issues, albeit of the minor variety, could enter the Guv race. From Roll Call:

The Justice Department has issued an indictment of former non-profit head Kevin Oksuz for his role in a plot to hide the fact that a 2013 congressional delegation trip to Azerbaijan was funded by that country’s government.

Among the ten US House members taking the trip was Rep. Lujan Grisham. She and her colleagues were cleared to take it by the House Ethics Committee and are not accused of any wrongdoing. Nonprofits are allowed to sponsor education trips for members of Congress but this one turns out to have been secretly financed by the state-owned oil company in Azerbaijan. But there is this:

Lujan Grisham and some of her colleagues received Azerbaijani rugs and other valuables as gifts but didn’t report them when they got home. House ethics rules prohibit members of Congress from accepting gifts from “an agent or a foreign principal” but appear to allow gifts valued up to $350 from a foreign government “as a souvenir or mark of courtesy.” The rules say any gifts worth more than $350 must be disclosed. The rugs were valued at $2,500 to $10,000.

MLG said at the time she did not report the rug gift because she did not think they were "particularly valuable" and also called them "unattractive."

Although the dust-up over the trip has been settled don't be surprised to see Pearce come with something about MLG’s magic carpet ride.

PITCHING SMALL BALL

There does seem to be quite a bit of small ball on the Guv campaign trail. For example, the Pearce campaign launched a heated attack against MLG's camp for listing GOP Socorro County Commissioner Glen Duggins on a list of 100 Republicans she says are backing her. Duggins says not so. The MLG camp says Duggins told her at a social event he was supporting her. The Pearce people say she is "lying."

That tempest in a teacup comes on the heels of the MLG campaign raising Cain over an error in one of Pearce's TV ads in which he erroneously quotes a news organization to support one of the ad's contentions. The campaign later fixed the spot.

And then there's the Dems scorching Pearce over his admission that he has yet to read the full District Court ruling finding that the state's public education system is under-funded--especially for at risk students--and therefore in violation of the state Constitution. State Dems blasted:

If Steve Pearce is too busy to read, learn about, or get a briefing about the landmark public education ruling in New Mexico, he has no business running for governor while New Mexico’s public school system is at the bottom of all the wrong lists.

Pearce said it's no big deal because he has argued all along that the schools are underfunded and he will work to get more funds into the classrooms.

Well, all of the above is a lot of campaign dust that will soon be gone with the wind.

SUSANA APPROVAL

It was close but by only two points GOP Governor Susana Martinez narrowly escaped falling to the in-the-cellar approval rating sported by Democratic Gov. Bill Richardson when he finished his two terms in office in 2010.

The final ABQ Journal poll of Martinez has her scoring an anemic 35% approval rating, two points above the 33% where Big Bill ended his eight year run.

The poll, conducted Sept. 7-13, lists her disapproval number at 46 percent and 17 percent as having "mixed feelings." Other public polling confirms her descent into the low to mid 30's, far from the heady days of 2012 when she sported approval of 69 percent. Things started to go down fast after her infamous holiday pizza party in Santa Fe in December 2015. In October 2016 she was down to 42 percent approval and now this final descent.

It's true that every Governor who has served two terms failed to leave office with a majority of the voters expressing their approval. But Republican Gary Johnson came close, ending with approval of 45% in the September 2002 Journal poll.

The lousy economy, the bitter wrangling with the Legislature, her personally vindictive style that she shared with her influential political consultant and that pizza party that unmasked her worst personality traits, all contributed to her undoing. But as Richardson said of his own poor final rating: "People get tired of you."

Martinez, 58, a longtime government employee, appears to be eligible for a state pension in the area of $100,000 a year, assuming she did not tap her retirement plan these past 25 years. Whether the once rising star of national and local politics will land another job remains an open question. She has announced no job plans for when her tenure ends on December 31.

THE BOTTOM LINES 

Today is National Voter Registration day so. . .

Bernalillo County Clerk Linda Stover is hosting the Second Annual Be the Vote Voter Registration Drive today at Civic Plaza, from 10 a.m. to 2 p.m. Staff members will be on hand to answer any questions.

CHI St. Joseph's Children, who we work with, sends this update:

CHI St. Joseph's Children announces the first biannual International Study Tour to educate interested parties about the benefits of Home Visiting as well as how to implement and operate a program. On Sept 24th – 27th CHI St. Joseph’s will present a comprehensive review of Home Visiting for first-time parents from prenatal to three years old. New Mexico ranks 50th in children’s wellbeing, according to the Annie E. Casey Foundation. We have a beacon of hope in Home Visiting, attracting people from other parts of the world to learn about this effective program. Highlighted will be a UNM study about how the state’s largest Home Visiting program was implemented, how it operates and how it evaluates its outcomes. The participants will walk away with a turnkey process for establishing and operating Home Visiting programs.

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The politicos poring over polling results for the statewide races over the weekend had to stifle yawns until they came to the contest for state land commissioner. Yawns turned to smiles as a nail biter appears to be in store in the battle for state land commissioner.

The important post has turned into a swing seat this century and the ABQ Journal survey showing Dem nominee Stephanie Garcia Richard leading Republican Pat Lyons by only two points--39%-37% with 9% for Libertarian Michael Lucero--confirms that again we are in for a down to the wire contest.

(The poll was taken September 7-13 and has a margin of error of 4.8 percent)

Lyons is a former two term commissioner, winning in 2002 in a 51-48 contest over Dem Art Trujillo. He was re-elected in 2006, beating former ABQ Mayor Jim Baca 52 to 48. Both Dems were unpopular. Trujillo was mired in ethics issues and Baca was in the cellar after his service as Mayor, paving the way for the unusual two term GOP takeover.

Garcia Richard, a three term state House member representing a north central district that includes Los Alamos and Rio Arriba counties, is chair of the House Education Committee. She does not carry the baggage those defeated Dems did, but in 2014 incumbent Dem Land Commissioner Ray Powell didn't either, yet he was narrowly beaten--51-49--by Republican Aubrey Dunn who is not seeking re-election this year.

The land office oversees 9 million acres of surface land and 13 million acres of subsurface mineral rights. Effective negotiating of oil and gas leases, which produce millions in revenue to fund public education and other beneficiaries, is critical. There is little oversight of the office and the commissioner is akin to a czar over all that acreage.

Lyons had amassed $188,00 in cash on hand as of September 3 to Garcia Richard's $33,000. Her coffers were spent down because of a competitive June primary but the lopsided cash balances also reflect oil and gas industry favoritism toward Lyons and their fear of Garcia Richard. She has said she would work to raise the royalties the state gets from oil and gas by a whopping 35 percent--from 18.75% to at least 25%--in line with Texas. She is also a strong supporter of increasing renewable energy leasing, hoping to use wind and solar to lessen the state's reliance on the volatile oil and gas sector.

Lyons, a working rancher from Quay County, is termed out as a Public Regulation Commissioner where he has served two terms. He touts his experience in the land office, inferring that Garcia Richard, a school teacher, is out of her element. He also stresses the mission of the office to maximize income for education. While sympathetic to wind and solar development--he signed the first wind power lease--he notes that New Mexico oil is in the midst of an historic boom--perhaps unprecedented in state history--and competent management is essential to ensure the state gets that maximum income.

Big PAC money from energy and environmental interests will come in and that should help Garcia Richard narrow the cash gap. But the political pros will tell you that a candidate's own campaign cash is highly important because it lets them directly control their message. The PAC money is on its own and sometimes misses the mark. Also, the PACS have to pay a higher rate for TV ads than the campaigns.

SUM IT UP, JOE

Lyons, who is also a former three term state senator, has never lost since going into politics in the 90's. Garcia Richard has shown her stuff by winning a swing legislative district three times. And she would be the first female land commissioner in state history in a year when women candidates have been preforming especially well. Libertarian Lucero has no significant campaign presence and his 9 percent could easily be reduced. How many Hispanic men stick with him and those who stay do they come out of the Lyons column or that of Garcia Richard? That could influence the outcome. Put it all together and you have all the elements for a race too close to call.

(Elizabeth Miller of NM In Depth goes long and deep on where the candidates stand on the key issues in the land office contest.)

Now it's on to the polling in the other statewide races and our analysis of where the races stand.

STATE AUDITOR

Besides the land commission battle, this is the only other statewide race that comes anywhere close to being competitive in the Journal polling released over the weekend. However, former NM Dem Party Chairman Brian Colón still holds an ample lead over appointed GOP Auditor Wayne Johnson, a former BernCo Commissioner who along with Colón made an unsuccessful bid for Mayor of ABQ last year,

Colón, nicknamed the "Happy Warrior" for his upbeat campaign style, leads 45% to 39% with 15 percent undecided. That Colón is not over the 50 percent mark heartens the Johnson camp. On the other hand the last Republican to be elected auditor was in 1968. That's a fifty year Dem run and Johnson needs a lot of the green stuff--and negative ads against Colón--to get it in play. Johnson only had $105,000 in cash on hand as of September 3 and Colón about the same. It will take more than that to dent the Dem.

Johnson has made the most of his incumbency courtesy of Gov. Martinez who appointed him to fill the vacancy created when Dem Tim Keller became ABQ mayor. He has scored widespread coverage for inquiries and audits. His recent forays was against none other than Colón who has a long association with the Robles, Rael, Anaya law firm that does considerable business with government entities and where Colón works "of counsel" but no longer a shareholder. A news article raised the question of the high legal fees the firm has charged the village of Questa but Colón says he never represented the village. Johnson is seeking to subpoena village documents.

His supporters say Colón, who is making his third run for elective office, has a demonstrated thirst for public service and point out that not only does he have a law degree, but a Bachelor's in Finance that make him more than qualified for the position.

The auditor's race is ranked likely Democrat.

ATTORNEY GENERAL 

In his quest for a second term as attorney general Hector Balderas has barely had to fire a shot. It's not that Republican ABQ attorney Michael Hendricks and Libertarian A. Blair Dunn are legal dummies. Far from it. They just haven't raised enough money to take on the heavily favored Balderas who has nearly $1 million in his campaign account.

Balderas leads the race with 53%. Hendricks manages only 32%. Dunn gets 7. Undecided is at 8 percent.

His opponents complain that his office produces more puffed up news releases than significant legal results but Balderas shrugs it off. He has earned points for watching over NM's children and for securing corruption convictions against Dianna Duran, the ex-GOP Secretary of State and former Dem State Senator Phil Griego. Republican Hendricks has won bipartisan kudos for calling for the resignation of ABQ GOP State Rep. Monica Youngblood following her aggravated DWI arrest.

The race for attorney general is rated Safe Democratic.

SECRETARY OF STATE

Maggie Toulouse Oliver won the confidence of the electorate during her stint as Bernalillo County Clerk clerk by running smooth elections that contrasted sharply with the chaos that came before her.

As a reformist Secretary of State she has strengthened her position and leads in the Journal survey. Toulouse Oliver scores 46 percent. Republican Gavin Clarkson gets 32% and Libertarian Ginger Grider's garners 6 percent.

The SOS received some paper cuts from the NM Supreme Court when she attempted to reinstate straight party voting in the state. But the Rs have been hard-pressed to indict her job performance and she is on her way to re-election.

The SOS race is ranked Safe Dem.

STATE TREASURER

Tim Eichenberg has been quiet, too quiet say the R's who would like to see Arthur Castillo oust Eichenberg who is seeking a second four year term. But as with Auditor it has been a mighty long time since an R was elected Treasurer. Eichenberg leads the Journal poll of likely mid-term voters 44% to 34% with 21% undecided.

Eichenberg, a longtime fixture in NM politics, may be quiet and a behind the scenes guy, but he has not been shadowed by scandal as have so many past treasurers--two of whom ended up behind bars in this young century. The public seems content with Eichenberg as long as he keeps his nose clean and invests their money safely.

The Treasurer's race is ranked Safe Dem.

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