Thursday, September 19, 2019"Moonshot" For Higher Ed But Early Childhood Plan Still Earthbound, Plus: Debating Trump Media Coverage, And The Year Was 2008 The free tuition plan is projected to cost just $25 to $35 million a year because it kicks in only after students use their state lottery scholarships, federal grants and other support. With Santa Fe running out of vault space to store the billions in surplus funds gushing in from the oil boom, that kind of recurring spending increase should be a snap for even Smith and the fiscal hawks to approve. But Smith is still hesitating: Smith. . . said he will want to know how the state plans to pay for the scholarship in years when oil and gas revenue declines. “The devil is in the details of all wonderful programs. The temptation is even more encouraging when you get oil and gas revenues. But if those revenues disappear, you need to sustain that effort,” he said. “My knee-jerk reaction is that I want to know more about the details. … All in all, it’s a wonderful idea, but the devil is in the details. And my committee wants to know how do we pay for this on a sustained basis.” That raises the question of when the Fourth Floor is going to get a "Smith Strategy?" You have a Governor who won election with 57 percent of the vote looking increasingly hogtied by one lawmaker. Experts agree the most urgent education need in New Mexico is for more early childhood education. That "moonshot" seems stalled until MLG gets some new astronauts in the Senate. MEDIA BEAT An addendum to our report on how disaster befell KOB-TV as the station was knocked out by technical glitches just as President Trump was arriving in ABQ Tuesday. We blogged that KOAT was the only broadcast station to provide live coverage of the arrival. They were the only one of the legacy news stations--KOB, KRQE snd KOAT--to provide coverage. However, coverage was broadcast on the Fox affiliate--channel 2--owned by the same company as KRQE. We did not give that much consideration because it does not have a stand alone news operation and is not promoted or known to viewers as a "go to" station for major news. KRQE has been pushing news events (political debates, the presidential visit) to the Fox station rather than airing them on legacy station and CBS affiliate KRQE where ad revenue can be lost when news events interfere with regular programming. KRQE/FOX anchor Dean Staley disagrees: Hey Joe, If you don't consider FOX a major broadcast channel, you might reach out to the Dallas Cowboys, the Denver Broncos, the rest of the NFL, Major league baseball, the Simpson's and the viewers of our 9 p.m. news on FOX. Those people exist. On some nights there are more people watching our 9 p.m. news on FOX than KOB and KOAT's 10 p.m. audience. That's the local FOX station. Do you think KOAT added a 9 p.m. newscast on some back channel because our FOX audience is insignificant? You can dismiss the viewers if you want to because of some dated notion of "legacy" broadcasters, but they have been watching our FOX New Mexico news product for more than a decade. Thanks, Dean. But what about KRQE viewers? Weren't they "dismissed" in favor of shoving the presidential visit to Fox? Fox is a major channel for sports not news. KRQE is a major channel for news. That's why it has CBS This Morning, the CBS Evening News, 60 Minutes, Face the Nation and its own serious news department with news blocks throughout the day. For major news events viewers naturally look to KRQE, not its little sister Fox. That's why KRQE dropped the ball by not broadcasting the presidential visit live, even as it provided its usual solid coverage on its regularly scheduled broadcasts. LONGEST-SERVING? The first headlines on the death of State Senator Carlos Cisneros, 71, called him the "longest serving" senator. We went with that, but it's incorrect. He is the second longest serving. And he was not "elected" in 1984 as we initially blogged. He was appointed to a senate vacancy in July 1985. The longest serving senator today is Stuart Ingle of Portales who was elected in 1984 and began serving in January 1985. THE YEAR WAS 2008
While respectable it was far from a record-breaker. The largest crowd for a political rally in state history was set by Dem presidential nominee Barack Obama in 2008. He drew 40,000 to UNM's Johnson field, a record that stands today and may for decades to come. What a year that was here. New Mexico was one of the most important swing states in the nation then, attracting constant attention from Obama and his Republican rival John McCain. There was also an open NM US Senate seat and incredibly all three congressional districts became open as Reps Udall, Wilson and Pearce all sought the senate seat. What a year. I don't think I ever worked so hard or liked it so much. It was that way for so many in politics that year. There was even a jazz song for Obama for "swing voters,"' titled "Taking it back with Barack, Jack." We found it in our archives and since this has been a presidential week here it is for your enjoyment and reminisces. The year was 2008. I was there and that's how I remember it. This is the home of New Mexico politics. Please note our new email address: E-mail your news and comments. (newsguy@yahoo.com) Interested in reaching New Mexico's most informed audience? Advertise here.   (c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2019Wednesday, September 18, 2019Death Calls Long-Serving State Senator Carlos Cisneros; "A Student Of New Mexico", Plus: Trump Has Much Work To Do In BernCo
Cisneros, who died of a heart attack at 71 Tuesday morning, spent nearly half his life in the senate. One of the longest-serving senators, he was appointed to the Senate in July 1985 and went on to become a major player and respected voice on state finances as vice chairman of the powerful Senate Finance Committee. In his nonpolitical life he was in the insurance business. Cisneros was also known for bringing home the bacon to his multi-county district of Taos, Rio Arriba, Los Alamos and Santa Fe counties, as well as expertise on area water issues. Each of the county commissions in Cisneros' district will send a name or names to the Governor who will make the appointment to fill out Cisneros' term which expires at the end of 2020. The person named will have the option of running in next June's primary. Cisneros was a member of the Senate's conservative coalition. That's the group of Dem senators who band together with Republicans on key votes. If his replacement does not follow suit that would weaken the coalition. Darien Fernandez, Taos County Dem Party chair and a Taos town councilman, has been planning a run against Cisneros for the Democratic nomination for Senate District 6. He said on Facebook in late August that he was about to make his candidacy official. He will certainly be a name to watch. Insiders say a woman or two could also surface as a possible replacement. This is a solid Dem district and the R's are not expected to be competitive. STUDENT OF NEW MEXICO  From the Capitol Governor Michelle Lujan Grisham issued this statement on the death of Senator Cisneros:I am completely shocked and deeply saddened to learn of the unexpected death of Carlos Cisneros. The senator faithfully served Northern New Mexico and our state for more than three decades. His leadership and friendship will be sorely missed. The Senate was made a better place by his wealth of institutional knowledge. A senior member of the body and an important committee chairman, he played an instrumental role in delivering infrastructure projects all across the state for many decades. The senator strove for impartiality and fairness, and he was as good a listener as he was a talker. When I took office, Senator Cisneros stepped up and offered to draft our first priority bill, a piece of legislation that ultimately doubled the state’s investment in small businesses. He was a solid partner. He began his professional career as a mine worker and became a union leader; he was a student of New Mexico all his life. I extend my deepest condolences to his family, his friends and colleagues in the Senate, and all who loved him. WINNING BERNCO President Trump is fond of telling his supporters that they will win so much that "they will get tired of winning." Well, probably not here. There are a multitude of reasons political pros don't see New Mexico falling into the Trump column. Our favorite is this: In 2008 Obama carried Bernalillo County by over 59,000 votes. In 2012 he prevailed in the state's largest county by over 44,000. In 2016 Hillary Clinton won here by nearly 49,000 votes in a race that also featured former GOP Governor Gary Johnson as a Libertarian. Even if Trump were to lose big BernCo by say 25,000, there is not much of a realistic chance of making that up in the rest of the state. . . The state Dems have been relentless this week in pushing back against the Trump visit but they pushed too hard when they included this presidential statement on their list of "Five Lies Trump Told In Rio Rancho." Trump said: I'll tell you what we're going to win the state of New Mexico. The state Dems called that a "lie," pointing out that "since losing New Mexico by 8 points in 2016, President Trump’s net approval in our state has fallen 30 points, and Democrats saw increased turnout in 2018, when we won every statewide race. Fine, but in this case Trump was making a prediction--not telling a lie. This is the home of New Mexico politics. Please note our new email address: E-mail your news and comments. (newsguy@yahoo.com) Interested in reaching New Mexico's most informed audience? Advertise here. (c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2019Tuesday, September 17, 2019Trump Leaves Nothing On Table At Rip-Roaring Rally For New Mexico Votes; Hangs His Hat On Economy And Heavy Courting Of Hispanics, Plus: Prez Visit Turns Into Nightmare For ABQ TV Station
(Full video here. WaPo coverage here.) With young people sporting "Latinos for Trump" T-shirts as his backdrop Trump went to work for the vote, taking credit for the best economic advance New Mexico has made in recent years. We have ended the last administration's war on energy. Since my election oil and natural gas production in New Mexico has increased by 40 percent. That means jobs. . . Crude oil production has more than doubled and is going up a lot higher very quickly...and your state's energy revenues are up by tw thirds. . . That's in a short period of time. Give me a little bit more time! Never mind that the Permian Basin oil boom pre-dates his administration, that's all it took for the boisterous crowd to break into chants of "four more years" as Trump drank in the adoration. That pitch came right at the top of his 90 minute plus talk, leaving him plenty of time to tout his military and energy budgets and the positive impacts they are having on Sandia and Los Alamos national labs and on the state's military bases most of which he mentioned by name. (Trump recently diverted money from some bases to build the border wall.) There was more touting of the state's economic conditions by the president--from job creation to higher wages--which have improved in recent years thanks largely to the aforementioned oil boom. He said that improvement was especially noticeable among Hispanics who hold the keys to any hope he has to winning the state next year. As usual for a Trump rally the event ran the gamut from serious to goofy. On the goofy side Trump declared: We love our Hispanics! Get out and vote! And in urging that the Dems Green New Deal be rejected, he declared: No More cows. No more airplanes. Of course "the wall' was front and center in the speech with no backdown from Trump who argued New Mexicans understand the need for a border wall more than most because they've lived with the problems created by a lax border. State Dems scored the speech: It’s no surprise that the president has resorted to lying about his accomplishments in a desperate attempt to take credit for Governor Lujan Grisham and the New Mexico State Legislature’s success. ANALYSIS ROW
Try to get New Mexico to again think of itself as a swing state and give his presidency a deeper look. Said longtime consultant, former ABQ city councilor and Dem attorney Greg Payne: I think it was a good speech. It was more down to earth and more in touch with the common voter than anything I've seen so far at the Democratic debates. He's gotten better as a speaker since 2016. And he continues to be willing to say what a lot of Americans feel but don't believe they can say anymore. Conservative Democrats in New Mexico that Trump is courting could get a role to play here, if the Dem nominee is seen as too far left. One of our Senior Alligator sources called the speech somewhat "tame" for him and wondered if Trump was "lightening up" as he ramps up his re-election bid. He added: The rally was pretty much standard Trump. It was lacking, however, the red meat quips that usually feed the media, rally supporters and enrage Democrats. His comments about (then-Governor) Susana Martinez at his last New Mexico rally in 2016 made headlines, but he resisted ripping apart local officials on this visit. This west coast swing by the President seems meant to test various campaign messages to see how they resonate. He obviously worked hard on teasing out various themes around the Hispanic community, but nothing was too provocative. From our perch Trump did himself no harm. He put forth some credible arguments about how his presidency has directly benefited the state. He rallied and energized his base voters. Whether he made inroads beyond that in this Dem bastion is doubtful. Polling in the weeks ahead will tell us. AND YOU'RE WHO? To say the greeting party for the president was comprised of second-tier politicos is today's understatement. There was not a top Republican official in sight because, well, there are no longer any top GOP officials in New Mexico. They were wiped out in the last election. San Juan County GOP State Rep. Rod Montoya, the House Minority Whip, mustered his best handshake for the nation's #1. The mayor of Rio Rancho and a couple of county commissioners also greeted Trump as did the Navajo Nation Vice-President. And that was it. You kinda missed Saint Pete at that moment, as full of himself as he could seem at such times. The Republican Senator, now gone, gave the greeting of a president of either party some New Mexico gravitas. (And if you don't know who Saint Pete was, you're too young to be reading this stuff). That low key greeting party should tell the Trump campaign how long a longshot their dream of taking New Mexico actually is. No Dem officeholders greeted the president. But then he was here for a partisan campaign rally. The Dems did offer up a protest at a park near downtown ABQ to make sure they got airtime against Trump. TRUMP NM STAFF As the Trump campaign romances the Hispanic vote in New Mexico there is some irony in the name of the new state director for the president's re-election campaign in New Mexico. She's Leslie White, the executive director of the Arizona Republican Party. Uh. OK. The Trump Regional Director for the area that includes New Mexico is Brian Seitchik, a political consultant who is a former executive director of the Arizona GOP. House Minority Leader James Townsend of Artesia and former GOP state Rep. Sharon Clahchischilliage of NW NM have been named Honorary State Chairs for the Trump effort. Hispanic representation? Did someone forget something for the Trump opening act here? MEDIA NIGHTMARE  KOB-TV inexplicably went dark right after 6 p.m. as it kicked off its early news. That was only moments from when Air Force One landed at Kirtland Air Force Base and the President disembarking to NM soil, truly "money shots" of a presidential visit. The station stayed dark as Trump stepped off the plane, waved to the crowd, was greeted by low-level GOP officials and then signed autographs for military personnel. KOB missed it all. Network programming--Ninja Warrior of all things--did pop up during the time of the Trump arrival but with no explanation and more critically with no news. So what went wrong? A KOB-TV insider told me: Joe, the station just went to a new graphics system. It had a bug in it and took the entire system down, We could not get any remote camera coverage from KAFB or the Santa Ana center or the studio. Obviously, it could not have happened at a worse time. Of course, everything is done on a shoestring budget around here these days. A bug? They better get a can of Raid at the NBC affiliate. Meanwhile. KOAT-TV cleaned up as it was the only station of the major three to broadcast the presidential arrival live and over the air. Hardly a political junkie, anchorman Doug Fernandez ably narrated the 10 minutes or so that Trump was chatting at KAFB. He was backed by solid camera work. To add insult to injury KOAT landed a brief Trump interview backstage at the rally, an interview the station billed as "exclusive." Trump will be in town this morning. Maybe the other stations can catch up. Meantime, as Trump walked on New Mexico territory for the first time as president KRQE amused itself with showings of Jeopardy and Wheel of Fortune. No live over the air coverage. While the early going was a disaster for KOB it hardly registered with much of the public (especially those younger) who long ago abandoned TV news for social media and/or alternate video streams. The TV news audience is much smaller than it was back in 2000 when another disaster befell local media. That's when the Los Alamos fires broke out--some of the worst in state history--and KOAT was unable to keep its helicopter in the air. However, KOB did keep its chopper flying and delivered alarming and compelling live video of the event. In the aftermath, their ratings soared and they overtook KOAT as the #1 station in the news ratings. You might say the misery at KOB last night was KOAT-TV's long awaited revenge. This is the home of New Mexico politics. Please note our new email address: E-mail your news and comments. (newsguy@yahoo.com) Interested in reaching New Mexico's most informed audience? Advertise here. (c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2019
Monday, September 16, 2019GOP Turmoil In Southern CD Race As Air Force One Heads To NM; Claire Chase Anti-Trump Posts Roil Campaign And Embarrass Pence, Plus: Trump And The NM Economy; The Case He Can Make As often happens, social media caused the tempest. Old but stunning Facebook posts from candidate Claire Chase surfaced that denounce Trump as "unworthy" of being President. The disclosure comes after VP Pence appeared at an August 22 event where he praised the "past, present and future leadership" of Chase, giving the impression that the administration is supporting her over chief rival Yvette Herrell. You wonder if Chase will be getting any more love from Pence--or Trump--after this politically explosive post on August 30, 2015: “For all my friends who like Donald Trump, I’m working on a fuller rant than he’s an a**hole unworthy of the office and the power of the President of THE United States,” And throw another log on this fire: On September 6, 2015, Chase referenced an article about how former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin was eyeing a position as Sec. of Energy if Trump won. She wrote: “This is reason enough not to vote for Trump, among the other 836,297 reasons not to vote for him." Whew. Now you have Pence headed for cover: He of course disagrees with statements like that about the president. As for what seemed like a Pence endorsement of Chase, there's now this: This (on Aug. 22) was an official event, and as she’s chairman of New Mexico Oil and Gas, (Pence) was thanking her for her leadership in the past and future on USMCA, as he has thanked business leaders across the country for their efforts on the issue." Chase's train barely got on the track and it's already in a wreck. Lucky for her she married into the wealthy Chase oil family of Artesia and can write a check to finance her campaign. She may have to judging by the searing comments in pro-Trump Breitbart which broke the story. CLAIRE'S CRISIS
Chase's campaign bungled the push from Pence by failing to scrub her social media accounts before announcing her candidacy and is now trying to contain the damage: Chase’s consultant Craig Murphy said that she has come around about Trump.“Claire did not support him in the primary, but she voted for President Trump in the general, celebrated his election, supports him now and thinks he has done a great job as President." Well, as a jacked-up Herrell supporter said: "We heard you the first time, Claire!" The DCCC also piled on, mocking Chase as it wondered if she is now part of the "Trump resistance." Herrell and Chase are expected to attend today's Trump rally. Don't look for them in the front row. (Hey, maybe Xochitl will show up. She'd be the lady smiling like a Cheshire cat.) TRUMP AND NM  --Trump has provided a friendly regulatory environment for the booming oil industry in SE NM which in turn has generated billions in state government surpluses that give Democratic lawmakers a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to pull the state out of the poverty basement. --Those same polices have stabilized gas prices which are critical to rural New Mexicans. (Keeping in mind the weekend events in Saudi Arabia). --His corporate tax cut persuaded PNM to roll back a proposed rate increase that saved customers millions. --The president's consistent support of increased budgets for Sandia and Los Alamos national laboratories have been key to stabilizing the economy, especially ABQ where the Great Recession lingered for years in part because of federal cutbacks. --Trump's controversial border policies are constantly excoriated, but he can argue to swing voters that cutting back on illegal immigration could be helping slow the flow of drugs into a state notorious for its rate of addiction. --Trump can push back against enviros by noting that his Interior Department agreed to placing a one-year moratorium on oil and gas leasing around Chaco Canyon in NW NM. He could declare that's good for the environment and for tourism. Those are not arguments often heard in New Mexico where Trump's favorables are in the mid-30's but if pushed they might bump his numbers which could help R's in the southern congressional district and in swing NM House seats. This is the home of New Mexico politics. Please note our new email address: newsguy@yahoo.com E-mail your news and comments. (newsguy@yahoo.com) Interested in reaching New Mexico's most informed audience? Advertise here. (c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2019 |
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