(Sanchez Saturno, New Mexican)

New Mexico received a long-awaited psychological boost Wednesday as the Governor announced the coronavirus curve has flattened and began a measured pivot toward what will be the eventual reopening of the state.

For now the state will stay in lockdown mode through May 15 but a NM Economic Recovery Council she appointed will recommend what and how will reopen once that stay-at-home order expires.

The 15 member council will be co-chaired by former GOP state Rep. Brian Moore of Clayton in Union County, one of a handful of the 33 counties that has yet to register a coronavirus case. He's a grocery store owner who became known to La Politica when he served briefly as a deputy chief of staff to Gov. Susana Martinez but lost an insider power struggle and was ousted. He was then named the state's DC lobbyist but that post was soon eliminated. Moore has also been a lobbyist for the NM Association of Counties. The other council co-chair is Christina Campos of Santa Rosa, an administrator at the ten bed Guadalupe Regional Hospital.

The leadership tilt of the council is toward rural New Mexico where discontent with MLG's handling of the virus crisis has been most criticized for being overly restrictive.

There are few recognizable names on the panel. That led one of the Alligators to wonder whether it would be very influential in getting New Mexicans to get on board with the reopening process and whether it would be very innovative in a post-corona world.

But it is a start or a restart, if you will. Ultimately, it will be the Governor who will take much of the blame or credit for what's to come and she appears to want a panel geared toward that, not one that is going to try to reinvent the wheel.

While the council was being announced the scuttlebutt at the Capitol over the future of  Olivia Padilla-Jackson, Secretary of the Department of Finance and Administration, became more intense. That department will be front and center as all things economic take center stage. Whether Padilla-Jackson will be around to see it was the question circulating and with few details beyond that.

LEANING FORWARD

In case those pushing for an immediate special legislative session to deal with the embryonic budget crisis thought they were on to something, MLG reiterated at her Wednesday news conference that while there will be a special it won't be until June "at the earliest." And she added:

By 2021 we expect that our revenues could be dramatically reduced and we’re gonna have to have a whole different set of strategies for education, health care, economic investments and the like.

One new strategy getting discussion is this: Why not take the $325 million established for the new early childhood trust fund and move that it into the state's reserves to help plug the massive deficit to come. Then get on the November ballot the proposed constitutional amendment for early childhood education that would tap money from the multi-billion dollar Land Grant Permanent Fund.

The trust fund approved by the legislature this year must be funded each year but where will the money come from in the post-crash economy? The Permanent Fund plan would provide for permanent long-term funding for early childhood. In addition, supporters estimate it would mean the hiring of some 3,000 early childhood educators, helping with the state's widespread unemployment problem. That's a lot of oomph from one move.

SLOW DOWN, VALERIE

Plame TV

Slow down, Valerie, you're making us feel guilty.

In her first TV spot northern Dem congressional candidate and onetime CIA spy Valerie Plame showcased her daredevil driving skills with a hot rod Camaro, skills that the spook agency taught her. Now she's back with a second spot that highlights the CIA obstacle course training she received.

New Mexico's busted budget could be getting a big patch from the Feds soon. Although a proposed $150 billion to fill state and local government budget gaps was not included in the latest congressional coronavirus package approved by the Senate Tuesday another corona bill is in the works that includes the budget relief. President Trump has signaled his support. That bill is expected to move forward early next month.

Santa Fe is anxiously awaiting the measure. The $7.6 billion state budget set to take effect July 1 could  have a hole of a billion dollars or more stemming from the shutdown and the oil crash.

Meanwhile, $150 million in federal aid previously approved for ABQ hit the city's bank account this week. The money can only be used to address the impact of the coronavirus but city officials are hoping that they will be permitted to use some of it to plug budget deficits that could easily reach $60 million or more for the remainder of this fiscal year and the budget year that begins July 1. They probably have a good shot since it's not expected federal auditors are going to go out of their way to punish governments trying to make ends meet.

On the oil front, you can't buy good news. The June futures contract for West Texas oil has now crashed following the crash in the May contract Monday that for the first time time in history took the price below zero. The June contract could not hold on to the $20 level and settled at $11.57 a barrel Tuesday, down 43 percent in a single day and a 21 year low. NM oil producers need a price of at least $40 a barrel to get out of the hole.

BUDGET CUTTING

We've been saying that if the Feds come through with that direct budget relief package New Mexico could actually keep most of its $7.6 million budget for the year that starts July 1 and go to work on cutting the budget that begins July 1, 2021. Not all agree, including reader David Meurer:

You wrote our surplus could carry us forward to the July 2021 budget. Yes, it’s an option, but I believe that is not looking at the possible long term effects of this crisis. Look, it took many years after the downtown of 2008 to finally turn the corner. If we let the July 2020 budget go forward, we bake in pay raises and other recurring expenses that are nearly impossible to cut in later budgets. It is very risky not to rework the July 2020 budget while we still have the chance. The unions won’t like this, but we can’t afford to dig a huge hole that holds us back in the following years.

You're probably right, David. The collapse has gone beyond anything anyone expected and it looks as if it will be multi-year affair. That means cuts for the upcoming budget when the Legislature meets in special session. There will be a dogfight, however, over keeping those teacher pay raises passed this past session.

KEEP THEM WORKING

Now that the new bill in DC contains another $75 billion to help put hospitals dealing with the coronavirus, can Lovelace Health Systems and Christus St Vincent in Santa Fe, among others, stop the furloughs of our valuable medical workers and keep them on the job during this crisis?

FIESTA'S FATE

We characterized it as "very likely" that the 2020 edition of the ABQ International Balloon Fiesta could be cancelled because of the coronavirus. But Fiesta spokesman Tom Garrity tells us organizers are moving ahead with planning for the early October event, even as they consult with health officials. He points out that other major events such as the Boston Marathon, Cochella and Kentucky Derby are all being rescheduled for the September/October timeframe.

The bottom line is it is too early to say with any certainty what the fate of the Fiesta will be and ditto for the annual September burning of Zozobra in Santa Fe.

PRIMARY 2020


Reader Cliff Rees comes with some can do spirit as we prepare for the June 2 primary election:

Joe, thanks for your continuing great coverage about New Mexico’s response to the COVID-19 pandemic. I wanted you and your readers to know that within hours after the New Mexico Supreme Court’s absentee ballot decision last week, I e-mailed Santa Fe County Clerk Geraldine Salazar with an offer to again serve as a Santa Fe County Election Judge, a public service I performed between 2006-2016.

I’m a 68 year old retired NM Department of Health attorney who co-authored many of the State’s public health emergency preparedness statutes in the aftermath of 9/11, now being used for the first time to respond to COVID-19. I don’t have a “death wish” about  being exposed to this novel virus in a Voter Convenience Center during the June 2nd Primary voting hours, but I’m comfortable that all reasonable precautions will be used for those hopefully small number of voters who choose to vote in person. Clerk Salazar immediately responded favorably to my request and asked me to also train other Santa Fe County Election Workers as needed.

So, in these troubling times, we can all make our own unique and responsible contribution to the State and Country we love to maintain our democratic principles.

The high court ruled that the in-person election will go on, but ordered the Secretary of State to mail absentee ballot application to all eligible registered voters.

Bully for you, Cliff. The Supreme Court made a difficult decision but you (and other) NM patriots are making it easier for them.
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(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2020

An historic panic gripped the oil market in the United States Monday sending the West Texas crude oil price spiraling downward to levels never imagined, and again highlighting the extreme vulnerability the New Mexican economy faces.

Murmurs of a developing depression--the first here since the 1930's--are now arising with unemployment expected to soar well past 20 percent of the workforce, businesses preparing to permanently shutter and the state facing a financial existential crisis that can only be alleviated by federal intervention stalled in DC or a miracle recovery when the societal shutdown ceases.

A quirk of trading accelerated the crash in the price of oil for the month of May sending it--for the first time in history--below zero. The "negative" price hit -$37.00 a barrel, meaning that producers would pay buyers that amount to take the oil off their hands. Black gold had suddenly and ferociously turned to black garbage.

Among veterans of La Politica heads shook, shoulders slumped and sighs filled the air as the reality sunk in that New Mexico, already dramatically and negatively changed forever by the long Great Recession of the last decade, confronts another chapter of immense pain and misery that will rip up any remaining notions of what is normal and send the state tumbling into a dark unknown.

The oil price for June is actually around $20 as the markets anticipate a rebound but that is providing little comfort as the relentless crash Monday signaled an oil glut of historic proportions that will very likely keep the price in the cellar for years.

Economy watchers were hitting the digital dictionaries and looking up the definition of depression. A commonly accepted one is a downturn of at least 10 percent in a state's gross domestic product (GDP) or a downturn lasting three years. Without massive federal assistance we face the prospect of easily meeting both definitions.

Unofficial unemployment is already near 20 percent of the state workforce; the city of Santa Fe is forecasting a deficit of $46 million for the remaining three months of its current fiscal year and an unknown number for the next one. ABQ faces similar dire straits with Mayor Keller ordering cost saving measures to try to ward off the most drastic impact. Furloughs have begun in Santa Fe and layoffs are inevitable if the downturn stretches into the fall with no intervention. Government employment is supposed to stabilize the state economy, which is short on the private sector, but even those jobs can't withstand the battering of a Category 5 economic catastrophe.

Even as the economy reopens what's to come is going to deliver more shocks. How can massive numbers swarm to Elephant Butte for the annual Memorial Day gatherings; how can the summer festivals featuring throngs of tourists up and down the Rio Grande be safely held; how can the State Fair go on in September; how can the Santa Fe Opera go forward or the fall schedule at UNM's Popejoy Hall or even Lobo basketball? And that biggest cultural icon of them all--the ABQ International Balloon Fiesta will very likely for the first time go dark, costing governments over $11 million in tax revenue, crippling tourism and depriving the state of joy in a time of such deep sorrow.

These economic and emotional shocks will shake us to our core as our most comforting and recognizable touchstones disappear. The late US Senator Patrick Moynihan often said: "To be Irish is to know that in the end the world will break your heart.” And now all of New Mexico is about to know that heartbreak.

WHERE'S THE PLAN?

Amid this turmoil and tumult eyes turn to the Fourth Floor of the fabled Roundhouse where Governor Michelle Lujan Grisham is presiding over the most difficult economic dislocation in generations.But her attention is laser-beam focused on the coronavirus and ensuring it is contained and lives are saved. She has held back in&talking about formulating an economic plan for when the crisis abates but her time is running out. The fear and foreboding of an increasingly vulnerable population over their prospects of economic survival are about to meet or surpass their fear of the virus.

Thus far the Governor has named no distinguished panel or a sole economic czar to signal that the state is manning all battle stations to soften the blows yet to come. If, as expected, she announces that the stay-at-home order will not expire April 30 but kept in effect until at least May 15th, the pressure will only grow to cease treating the economic recovery as an afterthought and, like other state governors have, begin to establish firm plans for the eventual reopening and recovery. 

As we discussed Monday, a special legislative session is not necessary at this time. That can be done on MLG's mid-June timetable but the economic ship needs to be captained and right now it is adrift and running on empty. This Governor needs to bring to bear the leadership qualities that have won her kudos during the health crisis and apply them vigorously to the economic disaster that so many of her constituents are trying to stave off.

HELIPAD CONTROVERSY

A report out of the Arizona Republic saying Navajos in that state stricken with the coronavirus would be flown to ABQ for treatment was shot down by the city of ABQ which said: "The news article published regarding this was in error. There are no plans to airlift patients from Arizona to Albuquerque."

Eddy Aragon videotaped for Facebook a helipad recently constructed at ABQ's Milne Stadium and where KRQE-TV reported the Arizona patients would be flown to and then transported to Presbyterian Hospital. The video garnered thousand of views, after which came the city's statement.

BAD MATH

In our first draft Monday we misstated the size of the state's budget reserves. The reserves total $1.9 million, according to the Legislative Finance Committee not the $3 billion we wrote. The state budget for the year beginning July 1 is $7.6 billion. Sorry for the error.

OIL CAUCUS?

Can New Mexico US Senators Tom Udall and Martin Heinrich form a caucus with the senators of other oil-producing states who are also getting a double economic whammy from the stay-at-home orders and crash in oil prices? Republican leadership has been reluctant to offer direct aid to resolve the mammoth state budget shortfalls. If the senators from NM, Texas and other oil states can make a case together maybe we would have a better shot at averting an economic debacle.

ALLIGATOR STRIKE

Alligators in attendance at that Saturday Roswell protest where MLG was asked to gradually reopen businesses spotted GOP Mayor Dennis Kintigh. They were quick to point out that Kintigh, a former Roswell police chief as well as a former state legislator, was not wearing a face mask and not practicing social distancing.

A debate over reopening the state when and how is fine but wearing a face mask, keeping six feet away from your neighbor and doing your best to limit travel outside your home is a responsibility.

Mayor Kintigh, for getting caught with your mask down you are the victim of an Alligator Strike. Congrats. . . or something.

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Joe Monahan

Budget hawks continue to bait a trap for Governor Lujan Grisham but she's not biting. Those hawks--the usual suspects and their media patrons--are clamoring for an immediate "emergency" special legislative session to tackle the budget disaster confronting the state. They want to convene in the middle of a pandemic in that petri dish known as the Roundhouse and begin bludgeoning state spending to address a deficit that could reach $2 billion for the budget year that starts July 1. The Governor is standing pat on her mid-June timetable for a special, as she should. Here's why:

--There is no clarity yet on how much federal help--if any--the state will get to fill the hole blown in the $7.6 billion budget. A federal package was making the rounds in DC Sunday but did not include bailout funds for state and local governments. However, we should have clarity by mid-June. It would be irresponsible to start chopping state programs now while ignoring critical DC developments. The federal aid could be as much as $2 billion and that would go a very long way in solving the current crisis without us having to do much of anything.

--The oil market remains in pandemonium, swinging wild up and down--mostly down--as the world adjusts to the collapse in demand. The emotional trading will subdue over time and oil will find a  true price--either higher or lower. By mid-June it will be much more clear where we stand with oil revenues which fundnearly 40 percent of the budget. Meanwhile, for 60 days we need to do nothing,

Despite this the hawks flap their wings and try to generate a panic so they can use their always sharpened knives. Sorry hawks, you best save that bait for yourselves or maybe have a Dove bar to soothe your shaky nerves.

CALL UP THE RESERVES

Those demanding an immediate special seem oblivious to the huge state reserves, even though it was they who insisted we create such a stockpile. A total of $1.9  billion general fund reserves. That's a lot of cash and makes clear that our primary problem is not the budget year that starts July 1, 2020 but the one that starts July 2021. How will we deal with that hole?

The time to deal with that will be at the regular session in January. Meanwhile a quick one day mid-June special (after the peak of the virus) to plug the budget for 2020 and launch a modest stimulus fund for small business seems to strike the right balance. We face a calamity for sure but the only way to beat it is to stay calm.

NEWS ANCHOR IN NEWS

Shelly Ribando

Domestic violence is one of the unfortunate effects of the stay at home orders, and it is impacting all segments of society. Michael Patrick, the public information officer for BernCo District Attorney Raul Torrez, has been placed on "administrative leave" after being accused of abusing his wife and 8 year old daughter. His wife happens to be popular longtime KOAT-TV news anchor Shelly Ribando.

Police were called to the couple’s Northeast ABQ home Tuesday after a credit card agent on the phone with Ribando reported that she heard a scuffle and that Ribando said her husband hit her, a police report states. They were arguing because Patrick had used a credit card to get an apartment, and Ribando was trying to cancel the payment. Ribando reportedly told responding officers that Patrick pushed her down and that he also pushed their 8-year-old daughter. Patrick denied the allegations, and his daughter also denied being pushed by him. Police said they did not observe any injuries on anyone.

KOAT did not ignore the story and informed viewers. Shelly herself read a story about domestic violence on a recent newscast without flinching. The ABQ Journal did do a report on the incident Saturday but never mentioned DA Torrez by name, instead citing the "Second Judicial District Attorney" and in a Sunday front page story on Torrez and the increase in domestic violence during the pandemic the paper failed to mention the abuse case right in his own backyard. What's up with all of that?

The other TV stations in ABQ (as far as we could tell) did not mention the incident involving Patrick, a taxpayer funded employee, who works at the very agency charged with prosecuting domestic abuse cases and is frequently quoted in news stories.

Help for anyone experiencing domestic violence or abuse can be found here.

And another pandemic story involving law enforcement had the Gators buzzing, This one from ABQReport details how APD's top brass ignored social distancing measures while paying respects to an officer who recently passed. The Mayor and the Governor's office seemed to think that was just fine. Others disagreed.

THE BOTTOM LINES

A Roswell rally to promote opening businesses in the state drew only a small crowd Saturday afternoon. A news report said about 80 to 100 were at the event--many wearing facemasks--taking part in the protest in the SE NM city.

Roswell Mayor Dennis Kintigh:

. . . He personally feels that Chaves County, with 1.2% of the state’s cases, should not have the same restrictions as areas such as McKinley County, which has about 18.5% of the cases.

The state's stay at home order runs through April 30 but the course of the virus is such that an extended shutdown lasting until May 15 appears to be a possibility.

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(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2020