The RRH/Elections Daily survey staged a rematch between Gov. MLG and Republican Steve Pearce who she beat in 2018. In the poll of the ABQ congressional district she bested Pearce 52% to 37%. Not an overwhelming number but in safe territory and hardly encouraging for R's contemplating a challenge.
MLG won statewide 57% to 43% in '18. She has come under sharp criticism for her strict pandemic policies, settlement of a sexual misconduct case with a former campaign aide, obtaining fine jewelry from a store that was supposed to be closed for the pandemic, giving big pay hikes to personal staff and for ordering high-end foods for the Governor's Mansion.
But she has earned high marks for getting the state near the top of the list for vaccinations, for working with Indian Country to prevent an even worse virus disaster there and for shaping a significant and successful '21 legislative session that, among other things, is priming the state economy.
This has not been the transformational governorship many progressives and others were hoping for. The state continues to languish in many important categories with no big picture solutions being offered from the Fourth Floor, but the ball has been advanced in fundamental ways. Among the successes: early childhood education, a more liberal fiscal policy, a balanced energy agenda and the absence (so far) of any major corruption scandals that can be deadly for an incumbent governor.
Against that backdrop, the 52 percent showing against Pearce in the ABQ area looks more like a base vote that she can build on rather than a mark she is going to recede from.
GETTING SPECIAL
The percentage of votes being cast by Dems in the special congressional election finally fell below 60 percent this week. Not a lot--from 60% to 59%. But it was finally a sign that the GOP vote is becoming more prevalent as we approach Election Day when the R's are expected to outvote the Dems.
Still, the party is only matching its registration in the early turnout. It was at 28.5 percent at mid-week, just above the 28 percent of voters registered as R's. The Dem registration is 47 percent of the electorate so their 59 percent share of the voting electorate remains quite strong.
The husband of VP Kamala Harris, known as the second gentleman, will be in ABQ today to give Stansbury a final push. Dough Emhoff will take part in a get out the vote event and of course garner important media coverage with Saturday the final day of early voting. Moores and the R's are also working to spark a more vigorous turnout. They will hold a Unity Rally Saturday at party headquarters.
Independent Aubrey Dunn has faded in the final stretch and Libertarian Chris Manning never did make much of a showing, except for the TV debates.
ELECTION NIGHT COVERAGE
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| Rep. Maestas |
Attorney and Dem State Rep. Moe Maestas is 52 and serving his eighth, two year term in the NM House. If he doesn't know what he's talking about by now, he never will. But he does and then some. No Election Night surprises will get past this ABQ westside favorite.
Longtime Dem consultant Sisto Abeyta is back and with a warning. If Stansbury doesn't get a double digit win DC Republicans, he says, will try to make a big deal of that and get some aid from the national media who are on the Biden strength watch. Sisto will crunch the numbers carefully.
Republican attorney Nina Martinez has toiled for former GOP US Sen. Jack Schmitt, ex-New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani and in one of Ronald Reagan's presidential campaigns. She is also a former vice chair of the NM GOP and onetime chair of the Santa Fe County GOP. That's over 30 years of experience. Just the way our listeners like it.
Republican Janice Arnold-Jones, a former ABQ state representative, city councilor and a longtime thought leader in the GOP has run her share of races. She'll be back to analyze the whys and hows of this special election. Janice ran for the ABQ seat in 2018 when Deb Haaland took the prize. In other words she knows the lay of the land like few others.
This is our 33rd year of anchoring election coverage for KANW but it's the 47th year on duty for station manager Michael Brasher. That's 80 years of experience between us. What can go wrong? Well, let's not go there. Join us Tuesday night. It's going to be special.
Enjoy the holiday, New Mexico.
Reporting from Albuquerque, I'm Joe Monahan.
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(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2021
(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2021