Democrats Moe Maestas and Sisto Abeyta and R experts Janice Arnold-Jones and Nina Martinez will provide analysis with your blogger anchoring the coverage. The first votes are expected to be released shortly after 7 p.m.
Absent a historic turnout anomaly Democrats appear poised to continue their reign in the ABQ congressional district when votes are counted tonight in the special election featuring Dem Melanie Stansbury, Republican Mark Moores, Independent Aubrey Dunn and Libertarian Chris Manning.
The sole public poll of the contest conducted two weeks ago had Stansbury nurturing a 16 point lead. She was the only candidate to come with new final days TV.
At weekend rallies she was pushed toward the finish line by name Democrats, including MLG and Sen. Ben Ray Lujan. And in early voting Democrats out voted Republicans two to one, 54,111 Dems to 27,934 R’s. Indy’s cast 10,700 early votes.
Republican Moores hit a financial wall and his TV dried up. He could not rely on big name R's in the final hours because of serious branding trouble his party faces here. Also, the national GOP committees refused to feed the kitty and the state senator was left to his own devices.
DC media handicappers, hungry for a race that amounts to a referendum on President Biden's first months in office, never did get their way and now at the end they are fading their initial enthusiasm. That keeper of the Potomac's conventional wisdom, NBC's Chuck Todd, puts it this way:
The race has not taken on the importance as I thought it would six weeks ago, to be honest. . .While the Democrats are favored, I am very curious about margin. I am very curious about turnout. . .about intensity--Democratic base intensity, Republican base intensity.
In other words if Stansbury fails to post a double-digit win, the media hounds will be on the trail looking for any signs of blood that such a scratch might leave on President Biden. Otherwise, memories of this one will stay confined to the banks of the Rio Grande.
LAUNCHING PADS
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| Rep. Lujan |
Republican Manuel Lujan, Jr. was the first occupant of the seat from 1969 until 1989 when Rep. Lujan was named Secretary of Interior in the administration of President George H. W. Bush.
Republican Heather Wilson served the district from 1998 to 2008 when she ran for and lost the GOP US Senate nomination. But in 2017 Wilson was appointed Secretary of the Air Force by President Trump, in part because of her congressional service.
Democrat Martin Heinrich succeeded Wilson in 2009. In 2012, while serving in the US House, he beat GOP nominee Wilson to become a US Senator.
Dem Michelle Lujan Grisham claimed the seat after Heinrich. In 2018 she ran for Governor as a congresswoman and won.
Democrat Deb Haaland took over in 2018. She left the seat early this year to become Secretary of Interior under President Biden.
That's quite the track record for promotions. But look at this. The state's northern congressional district has also become a launching pad for ambitious politicos.
Democrat Bill Richardson was the first to represent the seat, winning in 1982. In 1997 Rep. Richardson was named President Clinton's UN Ambassador. A special election put Republican Bill Redmond in the seat for a short stint but Dem Tom Udall took over the seat in '98. Rep. Udall ran for the US Senate in 2008 and won.
Fast forward to 2020 when Udall retired. His Senate seat was won by Rep. Ben Ray Lujan who had succeeded Udall in the northern US House seat in 2008.
Who will be next to get on the launch pad? We'll know in a matter of hours.
THE BOTTOM LINES
The Stansbury campaign will have an Election Night watch event on Facebook. She will be at the Hotel ABQ near Old Town to deliver an Election Night speech. The event is not public. Moores will monitor the returns with his family. . . Here's a TV news 22 minute Q and A round-up with the four congressional contenders. . .A list of polling locations for today's election can be found by clicking on the advertisement to the left. . .
Word arrives of the passing of former ABQ GOP State Rep. Don Silva. The Bronx, NY native served eight years in the House in the eighties and 90's and served as House Minority Whip. Silva died last month in Arizona. He was 85.
This is the home of New Mexico politics.
(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2021