Thursday, November 04, 2021Clippings From Our Election Night Newsroom Floor --ABQ Mayor Tim Keller avoided a runoff election by getting 56 percent of the vote Tuesday but don't expect him to take a long vacation. Keller has to now worry about runoff elections in City Council Districts 7 and 9 that could weaken his hand if R's make inroads. Expect to see him in those districts as the December 7 runoffs near. Senior Alligators say the Keller camp will get behind a PAC to aid the campaigns of Tammy Fiebelkorn in District 7 and Rob Grilley in District 9. Fiebelkorn faces GOP real estate agent Lori Lee Robertson and Grilley faces Republican Rene Grout. --Looking further ahead to the required redistricting of the nine city council seats in the new year, you are among the first to learn that a Movida could be brewing that would throw newly elected conservative westside city councilors Dan Lewis and Louie Sanchez into the same district. If successful that could boost liberals as only one of the conservatives could survive. --Sen. Martin Heinrich's new thing is to endorse candidates far and wide but it's catching up with him and he took a hit Election Night: I'd like to thank all 26 of the local candidates I endorsed for the passion and time they put in to run for local office. I also want to congratulate 15 of those candidates on winning their elections, and to one more for qualifying for a run-off. That's only a 57 percent win percentage for Heinrich, raising the question of whether the state's senior senator wants to continue with his new pastime. --Freshman ABQ Dem US Rep. Melanie Stansbury also got the endorsement itch and ended up with only two winners among the eight candidates she endorsed. How about something else for a hobby, Melanie? READER CLIPS From Jim McClure in Los Lunas: Joe, it looks like the APS school board election amounted to an upset for the teachers’ union. How much did moving the school board election to the city’s election day increase voter turnout for the school board race? My impression was that the old school election, on a separate day with polling places in schools, depressed turnout. This made voting easy for school employees and inconvenient for everyone else. News reports noted that APS candidates endorsed by a business group were largely successful. Is the first time any organization other than the teachers’ union endorsed candidates? Moving the school board election to the much larger turnout city election from a stand alone February election was key to the defeat of the Dem/union backed school board candidates. As for organizational backing in the past, there may have been some but nothing as financially prominent as the support business groups gave their favored candidates this year. They won three out of the four seats up for election to the seven member board. THE BOTTOM LINES
Joe, you continue to be my “go to“ election night “essential“ since you hit the KANW radio airwaves back in the ’80s (I guess). Even more amazing is the ebbs and flows of your ensemble cast through the years and you/they always make it lively. My greatest compliment to you is that you continue to be the most authoritative and professional source for political news and election night results in New Mexico, Gracias, Amigo. De Nada, Bob. Our first appearance on the radio airwaves was in 1974 when we reported for KUNM on that year's ABQ mayoral race, the first under the then new city council/mayor form of government. Frank once said: "May you live to be 100 and may the last voice you hear be mine." We're working on it. Reporting from Albuquerque, I'm Joe Monahan and. . . This is the home of New Mexico politics. E-mail your news and comments. (newsguy@yahoo.com) Interested in reaching New Mexico's most informed audience? Advertise here.   (c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2021 Wednesday, November 03, 2021Keller Sails To Second Term As Mayoral Turnout Cracks 100,000 For First Time; Mixed Messages Delivered With Moderates And R's Scoring Points In City Council And School Board Races; Soccer Stadium Kicked To Curb In Landslide And Santa Fe's Webber Cakewalks To Re-Election Mayor Tim Keller scored a sweeping victory over two rivals to secure a second four year term to lead New Mexico's largest city. Keller won 56 percent of the vote, easily passing the hurdle of 50 percent plus one to avoid a run off election with second place finisher, BernCo Sheriff Manny Gonzales who came in with 26 percent. Radio talker Eddy Aragon, the lone Republican in the race, placed third with 18 percent. In a speech to supporters at the Hotel ABQ Keller attributed his victory to his "building a foundation" to eventually overcome the city's crime crisis and put a dent in the growing homeless problem. Our Election Night analysts at KANW-FM radio also pointed to the weak oppositions campaign against Keller as a key reason for the win. Gonzales' candidacy nearly collapsed when he was found to have committed fraud in trying to qualify for public financing. Aragon's effort lacked cash and a message that failed to resonate past a segment of the GOP. As his opponents foundered, Keller ran a nearly picture perfect campaign. Still, Keller successfully steered the city through the Covid crisis, won approval of the Gateway Center for the homeless and benefited from a recovering economy. He told supporters he is not through. That could apply to not only his second term but what the 43 year old hopes is a career beyond that. LEWIS RETURNS It appeared Keller won all nine council districts as he did when he was elected Mayor in a run-off election against Republican Councilor Dan Lewis four years ago. Part of the mixed messaging of the evening was the aforementioned Lewis who reclaimed his old Westside city council by defeating Dem Councilor Cynthia Borrego and returning him to the council chambers where he will be the new thorn in Keller's side and perhaps position himself for another mayoral run.
The Dems also fell short in City Council Districts 7 and 9 in the NE Heights but they are positioned to take the seats in the December runoffs. Those were forced because no candidate in the two contests reached the 50 percent mark. In fact, in both of the races the Dems split their vote up and the lone R advanced to the runoff. In District 7 the six way race saw GOP real estate agent Lori Lee Robertson take 32 percent to progressive Tammy Fiebelkorn 25 percent. The two will now get back on the campaign trail with Fiebelkorn working for the support of the other three Dems who ran and lost. Her chances will be good in a district that has been served by retiring liberal Dem Councilor Diane Gibson. In District 9 Rob Grilley, Jr. had a disappointing night as he nearly finished third in the three way race. He managed to edge out Byron Powdrell who received 28 percent to Grilley's 29. But it was Republican and small business owners Renee Grout who took the win with 42 percent. She and Grilley will face each other in the runoff. SENA OUSTED In District One on the westside small businessman and retired APD officer Louie Sanchez aced appointed Dem City Councilor Lan Sena 55 to 45. She was appointed by Keller to replace Councilor Ken Sanchez when he passed away but the district did not match up with her progressive politics. They did with those of Dem Sanchez who will now be an independent minded councilor and not a vote Keller can automatically count on. ABETYA ANALYSIS Moderate Dem political analyst Sisto Abeyta said that ABQ voters were expressing frustration with the ABQ status quo in the city election but could not do it with the mayoral race where Keller was a runaway winner. Instead, he said they found their means of opposition via the city council contests. BOARD BUSINESS More mixed messaging showed in the races for APS School Board as three of the four ABQ board candidates backed by business groups won election, defeating their Dem rivals backed by union power. Not all of the business slate candidates reached 50 percent but they did not have to since there is no runoff elections for school board. Helping the newcomers was the fact that all of the seats were open with no incumbents and a much larger pile of cash at their disposal than their more liberal rivals. The mill levy for school buildings and a bond package--worth over $600 million over six years--passed but the mill levy won with only 52 percent while the bonds received nearly 70 percent. The building of new schools came into question while the population here remains flat. As for that proposed $50 million bond issue to build a new soccer stadium downtown, it was DOA out of the gate. It lost heavy in the early vote and when all the votes were counted it was crushed 65 by 35 percent. That's the wealth owners of the NM United soccer teams spending some $900,000 in support of the bond. The only winner in that were the consultants who picked up big fees even in the face of an epic failure. SANTA FE
The campaign against Webber had much bark but no bite. Like Keller, his able handling of Covid and efforts to curb homelessness overcame charges that he is a poor administrator and disconnected from the Hispanic culture of the city. Voters saw it otherwise. The tearing down of the obelisk turned out to be a big shrug but not the recovering capital city economy that Webber now presides over. Webber heavily outspent Vigil Coppler--about $500,000 to $175,000 and that also didn't hurt. TURNOUT Turnout was heavy in Santa Fe and set a record in ABQ for a city election. At least 118,000 voters cast ballots in the ABQ mayoral race, far surpassing the record of 99,000 votes set back in the post 9/11 mayoral election. The percentage of registered voters who went to the polls was about 31 percent. The BernCo Clerk says that percentage may have been higher for the 2001 mayoral race, but never before has ABQ surpassed the 100,000 voter mark in a mayoral contest. The record was made possible by a change in state law authored by Senator Daniel Ivey-Soto that put the school board elections and a number of small offices on the city ballot as well as mayor and council. But the public was clearly energized by some of the races and the soccer stadium proposal in which nearly as many voted as the mayoral race--about 117,000. That the Covid pandemic has died down may have also given voters more incentive to cast ballots. THE BOTTOM LINES Thanks to our KANW producer Kevin Otero and our panel of experts, Rep. Moe Maestas, City Councilor Brook Bassan, former State Senator Dede Felman, attorney David Buchholtz, Senator Daniel Ivey-Soto and Steve Cabiedes. It was a solid broadcast in which hey hit all the angles. E-mail your news and comments. (newsguy@yahoo.com)
Interested in reaching New Mexico's most informed audience? Advertise here. (c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2021 Tuesday, November 02, 2021Election Day Arrives With Most Votes Already Cast Early; ABQ To Decide City Leadership For Next Four Years; Mayor And Council Races On Ballot; Some Runoffs Expected; Our Election Night Coverage Kicks Off At 6:30 On KANW 89.1 FM and KANW.COM The big early vote should come in not long after the polls close at 7 p.m. Because that vote will represent the great majority of ballots, many races should be settled right off the bat. Today is the actual Election Day and voters can find info on that here. We've got a top-notch panel to help us count the votes including State Rep. Moe Maestas, former State Senator Dede Feldman, ABQ City Councilor Brook Bassan and attorney David Buchholtz. So be sure to tune in for all the action and a recap on your Wednesday blog. The early vote in the '21 ABQ election hit 77,352 as of Monday afternoon, according to the BernCo clerk. That's well on the way to matching and likely surpassing expert predictions of a 95,000 total turnout. That is also good news for the Democrats in an election that is officially nonpartisan but never acts that way. The higher the voter the better for the majority party. In that early tally 55 percent of the votes cast were by Dems, higher than their 47 percent of registered voters. R's were at 31 percent, matching their registration total for the city. There are about 383,000 registered voters in ABQ, the BernCo clerk's office reports. The energy in the campaign has been with the Dems as Mayor Keller has dominated the campaign and the polls and his challengers have not caught fire. There are also four contested school board seats on the city ballot for the first time. Those usually attract a large turnout among teachers who lean Democrat. And the proposed $50 million bond to build a downtown soccer stadium has also energized many voters. The polls say the D's are split on the proposal while the R's and Indys oppose. The GOP could get a voter pop today as many in their party have become distrustful of the election process and cast ballots on the actual election day rather than early voting. About 97,000 ballots were cast in the 2017 city runoff election when Tim Keller defeated Republican Dan Lewis in that year's mayoral contest. We'll look to jump that mark tonight. RUNOFFS EXPECTED Election pros say three city council runoff elections could be in store after the votes are counted tonight. They say based on early turnout stats it will be difficult for any candidate in those districts to reach the required 50 percent of the vote to take a first round win. The districts are: District 7 where six candidates are vying to replacing outgoing Dem Councilor Diane Gibson; District 9 where three candidates are competing to replace retiring GOP Councilor Don Harris and District 5 on the westside where Dem Councilor Cynthia Borrego faces former GOP Councilor Dan Lewis and newcomer Phil Ramirez. The pros still expect Mayor Keller to get over 50 percent and avoid a runoff. Any council runoff elections will be held December 7. WHERE THEY'LL BE Mayor Keller will have his Election Night party at Hotel ABQ near Old Town. Candidate Eddy Aragon says he will be at his "home" tonight, meaning his radio station near the ABQ Sunport where he lives. We haven't received word yet on where BernCo Sheriff Manny Gonzales will be at Admiral Beverage at 3980 Prince St. SE. DATELINE GLASGOW  Progressives are clamoring for a strong message while the state's giant fossil fuel industry is arguing for understanding.
The progressives have impact with their large important block of Dem activist voters. The oil companies, allied more with the Republicans, get the Guv's ear with substantial campaign contributions. In checking MLG's most recent campaign finance report we spotted contributions from Occidental Petroleum of $10,000; Marathon Oil, $10,000; Exxon with $7,500 and Chevron donating at least $10,000. Both sides are getting something from the Fourth Floor: Amid surging oil output, Lujan Grisham has pushed to rein in leaks and emissions of excess natural gas by the industry and signed legislation that mandates and incentivizes New Mexico’s own transition to zero-emissions electricity by 2045. . . In March, Lujan Grisham wrote President Biden, asking to exempt New Mexico from an executive order halting gas and oil production on federal land. Oil field royalties, taxes and lease sales account for more than one-quarter of the state's general fund budget, underwriting spending on public schools, roads and public safety. The immense boom in the Permian Basin in SE NM promises to get larger in the years ahead as less productive oil fields are retired and the cost-efficient Permian continues to pump. That means an even larger portion of state government revenue could come from big oil and the political classes--both D and R--will continue to collect their campaign donations. This is the home of New Mexico politics. E-mail your news and comments. (newsguy@yahoo.com) Interested in reaching New Mexico's most informed audience? Advertise here. (c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2021 Monday, November 01, 2021Election Eve Notebook; What They're Talking About, Plus: Balderas Nightmare; Top AG Staffer In DWI, Also: School Board Balloting Gets Scrutiny; Dems Vs. Business Groups --What was the biggest mistake of the campaign? Hands down that was the over $900,000 spent by the owners of the NM United soccer team to persuade voters to approve a $50 million bond to build a soccer stadium near downtown. The idea was panned when it was popped on the public only a few months before the election and no amount of money, according to the polls, could persuade voters otherwise. United not only appears to have wasted money that could have been used for community improvements but also could have tarnished their brand. Then there's the matter of that uninspiring ad campaign. . . --Do we really need expensive runoff elections for mayor and city council? We'll get one if there's an unexpected surprise and Mayor Tim Keller fails to score 50 percent of the vote Tuesday. A runoff seems likely in crowded Council District 7 and perhaps District 9, both in the NE Heights. The city could adopt ranked choice voting--as Santa Fe has--or return to the old threshold of 40 percent to declare a winner. If we want to keep the 50 percent mark for Mayor, fine, but the smallish council districts going to run-offs? One other point: runoffs rarely displace the first place winner in the first round. ---As Election Eve arrived the gunshots continued to ring out, claiming five lives in the Metro. The dead include the son of former Corrales area GOP State Sen. Steve Komadina. And neighborhood protests over the growing homeless problem continued. But don't look for any immediate change following the election. APD will remain understaffed, the drug trade continues and ample affordable housing is a mirage. Previous ABQ mayors have lost their popularity because of much lesser problems. Keller has already burned over 10 points in his first term coming down from the low 60's to right at 50 percent approval. History says if he wins a second it doesn't get better--or can he be the exception? BALDERAS' NIGHTMARE
Chief counsel Matt Baca was arrested and charged with aggravated DWI after crashing into a parked car. . .Baca was sitting in the driver’s seat of his vehicle on Garcia Street, where the crash occurred, when Santa Fe police found him just after 11 p.m. Saturday, according to a criminal complaint. Cruz reported Baca smelled of alcohol and had slurred speech, dilated pupils and watery eyes, as well as “a very dry tongue with heat bumps and a green distinct film which are consistent with the use. . .(THC),” the main psychoactive compound found in marijuana. If you read the rest, it only gets worse. Baca been an articulate and informed staffer for the AG and the public. Balderas had to put him out of business as soon he learned of the DWI. He's no longer Chief Counsel. Come on, Matt. Uber. RAEL'S RUN IN Here in ABQ Keller's foes went after a fender bender that Chief Operating Officer Lawrence Rael was involved in, claiming it could have been a daytime DWI. The conspiracy theory erupted when Rael failed to call police to the scene of the minor mishap. Former APD Sergeant Dan Klein says that the's problem--not the accident: Hector Balderas PIO Matt Baca was arrested. This is what happens when police respond to the scene of an accident. They do an investigation to determine sobriety and fault. Something that Lawrence Rael made sure didn’t happen 5 weeks ago when Rael had his accident.
I am not saying Rael was impaired, but I am saying Rael intentionally (with Keller’s approval) failed to report the accident in a city vehicle and have police investigate. This purposeful violation of city rules opens the door to speculation as to why Rael didn’t call the cops. . . The city came with a fig leaf that barely covered Rael's private parts, saying he was in a city vehicle on his way to his job at the time of the accident but was not conducting official business--so he didn't have to call police. Lawrence, hide somewhere. That's not even a fig leaf. MORE ENDORSING  Due to a change in state law this is the first time board members are not being elected at a separate February election. Four ABQ school board seats on the seven member board are up for election tomorrow. There's a liberal slate and a conservative slate. We blogged last week that we hadn't seen any endorsements from Senator Heinrich in the board races but now we have: That slate of candidates favored by Heinrich: Jinx Baskerville for District 3; Emma Jones for District 5; Josefina Dominguez for District 6 and Julie Brenning for District 7. Rep, Melanie Stansbury differs with Heinrich in District 5 where she is endorsing Uche Ohiri. They are agree on the others. The ABQ Teachers Federation is endorsing the same candidates as Stansbury, A group of business backed candidates has outraised the Dem favored candidates. Those backed by the economic development group NAIOP are: Candidates Courtney Jackson for District 7, Crystal Tapia-Romero for District 5 and Danielle Gonzales for District 3. All three are supported by the New Mexico chapter of NAIOP’s political action committee and the Greater Albuquerque Chamber of Commerce. A sidebar: Unlike the city of ABQ races school board candidates do not need to get 50 percent of the vote in order to avoid a runoff election. Whoever gets the most votes wins. Sidebar 2: Environmentalist Heinrich reached way down ballot to come up with this one: He endorsed Zoe Economou, candidate for the Ciudad Soil and Water Conservatio Board. Her opponent is Fredrick Snoy. Believe it or not there is something important here. Incumbent Economou will push for a mill levy (tax increase) for the district to "educate the public about soil health and water availability." Snoy is not for a mill levy. The drama of Election Night! THE BOTTOM LINES  We've added another heavyweight to our panel of expert analysts. That would be David Buchholtz of the Rodey Law firm, the state's top expert on municipal bonds. His expertise will come in handy in covering that $50 million soccer stadium bond. Also joining us is ABQ City Councilor Brook Bassan, former state Senator Dede Feldman and State Rep. Moe Maestas. Crunching the numbers will be veteran politico Steve Cabiedes. Thanks to all for volunteering their time to NM public radio. Stop by and join our Election Night party. This is the home of New Mexico politics. E-mail your news and comments. (newsguy@yahoo.com) Interested in reaching New Mexico's most informed audience? Advertise here. (c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2021 |
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