Destined To Die: Banner Crime Legislation DOA Before First Legislative Shots Are Fired As Housing Climbs List Of Concerns, Plus: A Lesson From Arizona

No guarantees but there is near certainty that two much talked about crime proposals will still be proposals and not bills at the end of the '24 legislative session that begins next Tuesday. 

Assault Weapons Ban--MLG will put forth a version that mimics that of Sen. Heinrich's but no matter the version the political support is not there yet. Rural and suburban opposition is vociferous. The bill will gobble up time and insert the proposed ban into the headlines but this is purely symbolic. 

(By the way, 10 years ago, Heinrich, a lifetime gun owner, voted against a ban on assault weapons but since then he and several of his Dem Hill colleagues have changed their minds.)

Pretrial Detention--This has become a mainstay at the sessions and a losing one. That will again be the case this year as key lawmakers remain adamant in their opposition and the rest of the Legislature doesn't seem that enamored with the bill that has been heard numerous times. Perhaps that's because a UNM study found repeat offenders are not a major cause of the increase in crime--contrary to popular opinion. 

Sucking momentum from crime legislation this session is the update from APD noting that the crime spike from covid is over. While crime rates have not yet retreated to pre-pandemic levels (and maybe won't), they are down. Even the grumpy, ink-stained wretches at the morning bugle have taken notice.

Of course, crime polls strongly among voter concerns and this being an election year it will remain a centerpiece of the session but with less intensity.

What has been moving to the top of voters' lists is homelessness, housing availability and rental costs. In her budget recommendation the Guv swung at that pretty hard:

--$250 million for the NM Housing Trust Fund.

--$250 million to the New Mexico Finance Authority Opportunity Enterprise Revolving Fund to increase funding for affordable housing, including developments of low income multi-family housing, down payment assistance for low and middle income households, homeowner rehabilitation and weatherization programs, etc.  

--$40 million for homelessness initiatives to coordinate and expand homelessness services statewide.

This will be another legislative session that again stares into the abyss of a state ranked last or near last in the nation in social conditions but with historic budget surpluses. 

We will soon enter an era of diminishing returns from the oil boom. Will the budgets of recent years that chip away at the deep-seated problems move the needle or will we end the boom where we began? 

NOT THE WAY

Gov. Katie Hobbs

How can you blow a hole in your $18 billion state budget when you have one of the most productive economies in the nation, replete with booming population growth? Well, do stuff like this as they did in Arizona:

The state had a budget surplus of $1.8 billion a year ago. But it now has a shortfall of about $400 million for the current fiscal year and another $450 million shortfall the year after. A tax cut approved by legislators in 2021 and signed into law by (Gov. Katie Hobbs’) Republican predecessor, Gov. Doug Ducey, replaced the state’s graduated income tax with a flat tax. . .Arizona subsequently saw a decrease of over $830 million in revenues from income taxes. . . 

Meanwhile, a school voucher program expansion that originally was estimated to cost $64 million for the current fiscal year could now top $900 million, according to budget analysts. The voucher program lets parents use public money for private-school tuition and other education costs. Nearly 73,000 students participate now that all students can get the vouchers. The average scholarship is roughly $9,700 per student. 

Arizona Democratic Gov. Katie Hobbs unveiled her plan to clean up the budget before the Arizona legislature when it kicked off Monday but she faces stiff opposition from Republicans who are not budging on the school vouchers, no matter how big a hole they blow in the budget. 

The voucher plan has been a nonstarter here but Gov. Bill Richardson did manage to pass a huge personal income tax cut in 2003 that led to estimated annual declines in state revenue in the hundreds of millions.

DAN'S NEW JOB

ABQ GOP City Councilor Dan Lewis has a new gig. He has signed up as executive director of the Asphalt Pavement Association of NM. That should make it easier for the westside lawmaker to "pave the way" for those contractors hungry for more biz on the bustling westside, even if Mayor Keller's minions seem to think there's a conflict of interest. 

Congrats, Dan. . . or something. 

This is the Home of New Mexico Politics.

E-mail your news and comments. (newsguy@yahoo.com

Interested in reaching New Mexico's most informed audience? Advertise here.  

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2024