Manny Gonzales Goes For Senate Following Ethics Debacles; Switches To GOP To Take On Heinrich; Early Skirmishing Begins; Senator "Sits Idly;" Trump Called Manny's "Hero"; Deep-Dive Analysis And Context Of US Senate Race '24

Will it be a vanity candidacy or the real deal? That's the question in the aftermath of former Bernalillo County Sheriff Manny Gonzales switching parties and announcing that he will seek the GOP nomination for US Senate and the right to take on Dem Senator Martin Heinrich in the November election. 

Gonzales made his announcement on the national platform of Fox news (video here) but there is no evidence that the race against Heinrich will be nationalized with DC Republicans putting up the necessary funds to seriously compete in Democratic New Mexico.  

Heinrich has already raised $6 million and has over $3.2 million in cash on hand as of September 30. No Gonzales filings are yet posted on the FEC site. 

But the former Sheriff's problems go well beyond finances. His ethical baggage appears insurmountable when messaged by the Democrats. That includes this latest episode that did everything but formally indict the ex-lawman:

 . .  Gonzales and former Pueblo of Laguna Police Chief Rudy Mora are being accused by federal authorities of participating in an illegal weapons scheme, according to a recently unsealed federal indictment. The two have not been charged with crimes, but prosecutors say they signed false documents to help gun dealers illegally obtain machine guns. . . According to the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives, both men submitted fraudulent requests to import automatic weapons for a demonstration and possible purchase. The local firearms dealer they submitted the letters to, James Christopher Tafoya, faces federal charges in the scheme. 

Add to that the forgery of petition signatures by Gonzales' campaign during his ll-fated run for ABQ mayor in 2021 that caused his campaign to be denied $600,000 in public financing and you get to the word insurmountable.

ASSESSING GONZALES

Having said that, there are aspects of his candidacy that are politically important. 

In the polling Trump is gaining on Biden with Hispanic voters. That gives Gonzales at least a sliver of an opening to make his case among those Dem Hispanics here who have soured on Scranton Joe.

Gonzales' candidacy will have appeal among Trump Republicans who fondly remember how he welcomed the deployment of federal agents to ABQ by the Trump administration in 2020 to address a crime wave. Sen. Heinrich called on Gonzales to resign for his action. Trump, who met with Gonzales at the time, loved it and tweeted out praise for Gonzales.

Of course the downside statewide of embracing Trump greatly outweighs the pockets of support the would-be challenger would pick up.

Still, Heinrich will have to handle Gonzales gingerly as he seeks a third term. His standing with Hispanics is not as strong as it is with Anglos and unnecessarily going over-the-top against the Marine could cost him.     

Inside Elections rates the Heinrich contest "solid Democratic." However, it appears Heinrich will be starting the campaign below the magic 50 percent approval rating as he did in his 2018 re-election bid. The last survey available is from the second quarter of 2023 conducted by Morning Consult. His approval rating then was 45 percent with 36 percent disapproving. 

OPENING SKIRMISH

Heinrich

In the opening skirmishing the Gonzales campaign came with this volley:

Manny. . .saw a radical led government and President who saw fit to open our borders allowing crime to pour into our streets across New Mexico and a U.S. Senator in Martin Heinrich who just sits idly by without a shred of respect for our great state to say enough is enough. If anything, Sen. Heinrich has aided in this lawlessness, and allowed our great state to be riddled with crime and low education outcomes. Manny switched parties to become a Republican with much appreciation for the commonsense Democrats and independents who have supported him in the past. 

A good dig there at the Dem Achilles Heel on the southern border and the continued state social problems presided over by the Dems.

Heinrich's campaign retorted:

(He) is running for re-election to continue delivering real results for New Mexicans. He remains committed to investing in the brighter future the people of our state deserve. That stands in direct contrast to Manny Gonzales, who, like his hero and role model Donald Trump, is running for office to avoid his legal troubles. Hopefully, Manny won’t have to fake signatures to get on the ballot this time around.

There's Manny being tied to the Trump tree and taking a hit over ethics in a two-pronged attack, measured but forceful, and that will no doubt be relentlessly repeated between now and November. (They kept the gun-running charge out for now. Progressive ABQ and keeping it in line is the target.)

HERRELL-VASQUEZ IMPACT

Now that ABQ's South Valley is part of the southern congressional district and the territory where Gonzales is best known, he could be an asset for Republican Yvette Herrell in her quest to unseat freshman Dem Rep. Gabe Vasquez. She desperately needs to make inroads there and despite his ethical hurdles Gonzales still retains a base of loyal voters there who twice elected him county sheriff.

But Gonzales' overall appeal is quite limited. His 2021 ABQ mayoral run against Dem Mayor Tim Keller ended disastrously with the aforementioned forgery charges and a general aura of incompetence surrounding his candidacy. He lost in a landslide with Keller garnering 56 percent, Gonzales 26 and Republican Eddy Aragon 18.

Gonzales' consultant for the mayoral race was longtime political actor Jay McCleskey. For the Senate race Gonzales is being consulted by Axiom Strategies, one of the nation's larger GOP consulting firms.

Geographically, the former Sheriff's chances among progressives in ABQ, Santa Fe, Las Cruces and Taos are close to nil. That makes winning those counties out of reach and puts the Senate out of his reach. 

Ethnic voting in the Hispanic North might help him cut down the Dem winning margins in Rio Arriba and a couple of other counties but if there is no threat to Heinrich in the cities it would be for naught. 

His law and order background (if not too tarnished by negative ads) should be a plus in the large conservative areas of the south where Trump and Herrell will run strongly. Republicans will at least have someone to turn out for. 

OUR SENATE BOTTOM LINES

Monahan

The Gonzales candidacy provides a small breather for the state GOP--a name challenger other than the unknown Ben Luna --but one so saddled with baggage that the impact will not be in the Senate race but in helping the beleaguered minority party turn out their voters, perhaps helping in that banner race for Congress and maybe in a close legislative race or two.

The Gonzales dream of putting together a coalition of Republicans, conservative Dems and independents is worthy but forces voters to blindly overlook his significant ethical mishaps and Trumpian ideology. Those factors make this a vanity candidacy providing political entertainment but not yet a serious effort to unseat an incumbent US Senator. 

The federal candidate filing deadline is February 6. The primary election is June 4. 

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(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2024