The margin of error in the poll taken among 400 likely voters July 11-14 is plus or minus 4.9 percent, enough for each candidate to make a plausible case for their election.
Former GOP Rep. Yvette Herrell and Dem Rep. Gabe Vasquez, who unseated Herrell in 2022, are both awaiting polling revealing how VP Harris polls in the district. The presidential candidates will have a major influence in the race.
Herrell may expect even more enthusiasm for Trump with liberal Harris leading the Dems in the often conservative district. Vasquez may be looking for a similar reaction in the ABQ South Valley and his hometown of Las Cruces where Harris is expected to run strong.
Herrell's recent focus on Vasquez' character has Dems paying attention. Their opposition research showed that Vasquez in 2004 allegedly used the N word during a dispute with an employer and that he also had unresolved traffic infractions for driving without a license and without insurance in 2002 when he was 18.
Vasquez denied ever using the N word. He settled the traffic citations in March by paying a bond. His attorney said Vasquez was never notified of the outstanding citations and took care of them when he became aware of them.
There has been no nonpartisan public polling yet conducted in the race which the Cook Political Report in DC and others rate a toss-up.
NOT DESPERATE ENOUGH
Joe, you write, "With a last in the nation ranking in the performance of its public schools, New Mexico is desperate for solutions."
Vouchers, smaller classrooms, smaller schools, charter schools--all of these and others are deck chairs, as if there is a technical fix to the deficiencies of education. Education is primarily a transmission of information and skills from those who possess them to those who do not. Everything else is ancillary.
Nevertheless, New Mexico is not desperate enough to consider: (1) the curricula in all major academic subjects, (2) the quality of teachers and the qualifications for teaching, and (3) the schools of education.
English, the most critical of all subjects, has a curriculum which is chaotic. On the literary side, it is not comprehensive or historically representative. On the grammar and composition side, it is not taught or, if taught, not properly sequenced for cumulative acquisition of knowledge and skills.
In general, teachers are united against raising standards and against allowing competent people with relevant backgrounds into the profession (e.g., retired writers/editors, healthcare workers, or military personnel). Schools of education focus on achieving socially desirable goals, not ensuring their enrollees' academic preparation for the courses these graduates will actually teach. Instead, in its desperation, New Mexico spends money on reckless ventures which have not or have not yet proven their worth and proven their fit with what exists.
Even if early childhood education--Headstart writ large--were to work, its good effects would be lost when students proceed into grades K-4, to teachers whose students fare poorly on standardized proficiency tests in reading and math, and no better on such tests four years later. Understandably, in a Democratic state, with teachers unions' support needed for re-election, few politicians have the courage to undertake the necessary steps to actually improve public education with "tough-love" reforms. So what remains is pious hand wringing, higher taxes, and little to show for either.
JOIN THE PARTY
Reader Rick Lass, a longtime Green Party member, updates us on third parties and the NM presidential ballot:
Hi Joe, One more addition to your list of minor parties from last week. The Green Party is also ballot qualified in New Mexico. They submitted their petitions over a year ago. Jill Stein is the presumptive nominee. The national Presidential Nominating Convention will be Aug 15-18.
Major Parties (Qualified Political Parties in New Mexico) are Democratic Party of New Mexico Libertarian Party of New Mexico Republican Party of New Mexico.
In New Mexico, only major political party candidates will appear on the Primary Election ballot.
The Minor Parties (Qualified Political Parties in New Mexico) are Free New Mexico Party, Green Party of New Mexico and Party for Socialism and Liberation of New Mexico.
Robert F. Kennedy has qualified as an independent candidate for the NM presidential ballot.
