Most observers believe the Senate race still tilts heavily toward Heinrich, even if Domenici is the winner of the GOP June nomination but candidates rarely miss an opportunity to raise money and her candidacy is certainly that. 

Here's the Heinrich take on the shake-up in his contest for a third term made in a fund-raising pitch:

A Republican multi-millionaire announced her campaign to defeat Martin in New Mexico’s U.S. Senate race. Martin’s new challenger is a longtime hedge fund executive who has already poured half a million dollars into her own campaign. As the daughter of New Mexico’s last Republican Senator, she is all but certain to have GOP mega-donors lining up to support her bid. . .While Martin’s opponent may have a personal fortune and the GOP establishment behind her, what we have is far more valuable: a grassroots movement that comes together to fight for our shared values time and time again. . .We can’t afford to lose Martin’s voice in the Senate. The issues that matter most to our movement are at stake, from preserving our public lands and waters to protecting critical benefits like Medicare and Social Security. But this race is officially competitive, and we need to build up our grassroots resources immediately to win. Between Martin’s new opponent jumping in and Donald Trump planning to ramp up his campaign in New Mexico, it’s clear Republicans are making the Land of Enchantment a top target this year. We have our work cut out for us in the months ahead. . .

Whether the race is "officially competitive" won't be known until the first round of head-to-head polling but Domenici does have cash to spend and that will make her a player and the favorite to beat former BernCo Sheriff Manny Gonzales, her major opponent for the GOP nomination. 

But big questions linger about the new would-be Senator. Just how much money is she prepared to put into the effort because while Heinrich's fundraising pitch asserts that GOP "mega-donors" will back her, that is far from certain and probably not so--unless polling shows an unexpectedly close contest. 

Then there's the abortion issue hanging over the head of every Republican in the nation seeking public office. We asked the Domenici campaign if she was pro-life or pro-choice but did not get a response. 

Is it conceivable that she could be pro-choice? There is not one elected NM Republican who comes to mind who holds that position. Would it be a deal-breaker for grass roots Republicans and give Gonzales the nomination? Domenici, raised a Catholic, may end up threading the needle on abortion as Republican Mark Ronchetti fruitlessly attempted in his '22 Guv campaign.

And what about her support of Trump? Will she dance around that one as Ronchetti did in his two statewide runs, only to accept the former president's endorsement near the end of his last campaign? 

Or will Domenici go all in with Trump who lost to Biden here by ten points? A closer race may be in store this year between the two likely presidential nominees. If so that would make campaign life much more comfortable for Domenici who is going to need a blow-out in Trump country in the south to have any hope of a win. But embracing Trump endangers possible swing areas she also needs. Living with the Donald is not easy. 

GOING LEFT ON GAZA

Sen. Lujan

The Senate on Tuesday voted overwhelmingly to reject a resolution forced to a vote by Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) aimed at tying U.S. military assistance for Israel to the country's humanitarian treatment of Palestinian human rights. Why it matters: It's a demonstration of the bipartisan support Israel still enjoys in Congress despite pockets of opposition among Democratic lawmakers. 

 The Senate voted 72-11 to table the resolution, effectively killing it. 

Sanders and Sens. Martin Heinrich (D-N.M.), Jeff Merkley (D-Ore.), Chris Van Hollen (D-Md.), Ed Markey (D-Mass.), Laphonza Butler (D-Calif.), Ben Ray Lujan (D-N.M.), Mazie Hirono (D-Hawaii), Peter Welch (D-Vt.) and Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) voted against blocking the resolution.

Tuesday was also the day pro-Palestinian protestors interrupted MLG's state of the state speech three times as they shouted support for them. 

Heinrich's vote was unexpected and will be greeted warmly by the left wing  but it could impact campaign donations from pro-Israeli donors. 

Even as most Democratic senators are reluctant to take a position  not viewed as fully supporting Israel, polling shows a majority of Democrats believe the Israelis went too far in their response to the Hamas October attack that started the fighting. 

Of most interest in the polling for New Mexico is this: 

Nonwhites were 15 points more likely to say the response has been too much (48% vs. 33% for whites).  

VOX POPULI 

Joe,  Help me here, I do not remember Sen. Tom Udall or Gov. Bill Richardson hanging out in NM until they ran for office. Peso Bill came out of nowhere from Mexico. And Tom showed up from Arizona with a sack full of money from his daddy. No one knows where Bill got his Mexico seed money. 

Thanks, Richard. But we do know where Big Bill got his seed money because we covered him back in the early 80's when he started out. For one of his first campaigns (if not his first; we can't recall) he received a $100,000 CD from his mother who lived in Mexico where Bill's Boston father was stationed as a banker. 

Reader John G. in ABQ also writes of the Senate campaign:

Joe, you wrote: "There must be gravitas to a candidacy."  Gravitas, while it helps, isn’t enough. Domenici's problem is the same Mark Ronchetti ran into and that Trump will run into this year: how to handle the extremists that currently control the Republican party. While playing to them may get her and him the party's nomination, it’s just the opposite of what’s needed to win the general election. 

On that note: I’m amazed that the Mainstream Media is falling all over themselves that Trump dominated the Iowa caucuses. Since when is Trump being overwhelmingly picked by a bunch of White, Evangelical, Christian Nationalists (the Republican Party of late) a surprise? And, you outdid yourself with the Nella blog Tuesday. . . 

Thanks, John. We always enjoy the unexpected in politics. 

And a final note, we erroneously had Nella Domenici receiving a law degree from Harvard in a first draft Wednesday. Here's how she describes her higher education: 

I waited tables to help pay for my undergraduate degree from Georgetown University. While holding down a full time job, I paid my way through night school at Georgetown Law. I also paid for Harvard Business School, graduating as a Baker Scholar, top 5% of the class, while nine months pregnant.  

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Nella Domenici

But Domenici's entry into the race was hardly an announcement. In fact, she was already being outmaneuvered by state Democrats who spotted the paperwork she had filed with the FEC and broke the news of her run Monday afternoon--and they did so on their terms:

Between a scandal-plagued Sheriff turned MAGA extremist and an East Coast elitist, New Mexico Republicans’ Senate primary is sure to be brutal. Party infighting will show how out-of-touch Republicans are with New Mexicans’ values. If Nella Domenici survives the dogfight, her close ties to Wall Street and her work for a mega-hedge fund that laid off American workers while investing in China will all face extensive scrutiny as Republicans’ primary intensifies. Democrats have won every Senate race in New Mexico since 2006, and we are confident Senator Heinrich will be reelected.”

Unprepared for the moment the political newcomer is now forced to play catch-up and rebuke a multi-layered narrative the Dems are already circulating:

--That she is a carpetbagger who has little connection to the state and that her true home has been New York City. (She has a home in Santa Fe).

--That her aforementioned role achieving significant wealth as Chief Financial Officer for the giant hedge fund Bridgewater Associates makes her out of touch in a poor state.

--That she may try to buy the Senate race with her wealth.

--That she is all hat and no cattle, running on her famous last name that today is not as famous as it was when Senator Domenici left the seat in 2009. 

CATCHING UP

Sen. Heinrich

I’m in this fight to win, which is why my husband and I are dedicating substantial resources, effort, and time to this race. We can and must do better. 

She says she will launch her campaign with an initial $500,000 personal donation.

On being a carpetbagger:

New Mexico is my home. I was born in Albuquerque. . . I began my education at Our Lady of Fatima. .  I am the devoted mother of two, step-mom of four, and the wife of a Navy Veteran. My family’s roots run deep in New Mexico and it is here that I have always returned. My husband Pat and I enjoy our family home in New Mexico that we have owned for nearly twenty years.

On being a lightweight on public policy: 

. . .I have been a warrior for those who most need an advocate: for women competing in academics or business, for families dealing with mental illness, and for those without access to quality healthcare or education. . .My professional experience and education enables me to deeply understand inflation, taxation. . .

On why she is pursuing a campaign that some GOP consultants see as futile:

The cost of living is up, we have a crime and drug crisis, the border is wide open, and our public education system is leaving our kids behind. . .It is clear that the political environment in New Mexico is favorable to Republicans. Over 70% of voters believe the country is on the wrong track. There is massive dissatisfaction with the economy, our border, and the misguided policies from Washington. 

The other major GOP candidate in the race is former BernCo Sheriff Manny Gonzales. He is taking hits over a national gun scandal but argues it is politically motivated. 

Most important, Gonzales is tight with Trump and Domenici is not expected to express fondness for the ex-president. She comes from a moderate wing of the GOP that is nearly out of existence but presently exemplified by presidential candidate Nikki Haley.  

And what about abortion, Nella? Uh, please don’t ask.

A GOP consultant opines: 

Joe, state Republicans will have to decide between an ethically-challenged Sheriff who just switched from the Democrats and a wealthy Manhattanite who has just parachuted in.

True but the question is whether Gonzales will have the funds to compete with Domenici. 

TRUMP'S SHADOW

Ronchetti came back for the Governor's race in 2022, again spending millions only to lose again in blue New Mexico, this time to Michelle Lujan Grisham.

The lesson being that money alone is not enough for a Republican to win a general election. There must be gravitas to a candidacy. 

National Republicans can encourage Domenici and they don't have to give her money but hope to see her force Heinrich to spend down the $3.2 million he has already banked.

Domenici has hired Rival Strategy of ABQ for her campaign. They are also working on Yvette Herrell's southern congressional candidacy against Dem Rep. Gabe Vasquez but not as the main consultants. 

PETE'S LEGACY

Domenici's father, who had nine children and died in 2017 at 85, was the last Republican to be elected to the US Senate from New Mexico and that was for his final term in 2002.

DC pundits rate the ‘24 NM Senate race as "solid Democratic."

Nella Domenici's brother, ABQ attorney Pete Domenici, Jr. ran for the 2010 GOP Governor nomination but finished back in the pack, another example of New Mexico voters not being comfortable with dynasty politics. 

Another Nella Domenici brother, half-brother Adam Laxalt, won for attorney general in Nevada but came up short when he sought a US Senate seat in 2022.

Adam Laxalt's birth was the result of an extra-marital affair Senator Domenici had with a DC lobbyist that was only revealed after he left the Senate. It cost him much goodwill. Since Nella Domenici is relying on the family name the negatives of her father will surely circulate on social media. 

A THIN PRESENCE

Sen. Domenici

She recently attended a meeting of the ABQ Economic Forum where we are told she was described as an "idea person."

In 2019 she briefly entertained a run for the open Senate seat won by Dem Ben Ray Lujan. We covered that here.

Heinrich, 52, seeking a third term, has made no secret that he is entertaining a run for Governor in 2026. Many argued he was letting the cat out of the bag too soon and they may be right. 

One line of attack that Domenici could open on Heinrich is that he is not committed to the Senate, only to his own ambitions and that while she may be new to the scene she would finish a six year term. Would Heinrich do the same? Not an easy question for him. 

In an uphill race perhaps that would be the main impact of a Domenici candidacy--taking Heinrich down a notch or two and dimming his future political prospects. 

'24 SESSION

Protesters nearly hijacked MLG's state of the state speech on the opening day of the legislature, thrice interrupting her for long periods of chanting over climate change and in support of the Palestinians. She made it through and video is here and a transcript here. 

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It's clear where the Governor's heart lies as she prepares to deliver the traditional State of the State address this afternoon. She penned an op-ed that ran in the major papers over the weekend and that was devoted to her proposal to ban assault weapons. Nothing about the budget. Nada.

Never mind yet another mind-boggling surplus (at least $3.5 billion). We've been spoiled rotten by this years-long oil driven revenue boom. What's it going to be like when Santa Fe has to give up the steak and go back to the burgers? 

New Mexico is not unfamiliar with a chief executive's penchant for an all crime or nearly all crime session, especially in an election year that will see the issue jam the mailboxes and screens of voters. 

Gov. Martinez, a former district attorney, was relentless in her pursuit of the wedge issue and criticized over it because during her tenure crime was bad but nothing like the post-covid ferociousness the state has experienced. 

MLG making crime her session centerpiece is not an overreach as it may have been for Martinez, but it does seem a bit late in the game.

ABQ has been punished with a crime wave for about four years. Finally the fever was broken in '23 when the murder rate rate fell as it did in many other cities. Other categories (e.g. auto theft) have also seen a decline from the maddening rates that resulted in good measure from the covid lockdown.

While the crime epidemic cools, that is not the case with guns. 2020 smashed all records for gun sales and appear to be picking up again. Many of the buyers have been women and minorities, Democratic constituencies that night not necessarily cotton to severe gun restrictions such as that ban on assault weapons or a 14 day waiting period before taking possession of a gun--both of which the Governor is touting. 

MLG's public health order declaring an emergency over guns and banning them from being carried in Bernalillo County may also cut against the gun bills. After all, if you're living in the middle of a battlefield, as the Governor says, you might think about arming yourself. Even progressives want to feel safe in their homes. (The gun ban was mostly set aside by a federal judge.)

Republicans should have no problem forming a coalition with the majority Democrats to again stop the major gun bills. But the debate over guns and assorted criminal behavior will be loud and long and perhaps leave the impression with voters that something is actually getting done. 

Like we said, this is an election year. 

OTHER ACTION (OR NONACTION)

The state would not blink if the Guv declared a public health emergency over at the Children Youth and Families Department. But one state Senator (playing Alligator) informs us that there will be no push for major reforms from the administration. There is a CYFD proposal to form a new CYFD division that would help troubled families having economic or other problems that might precipitate child abuse. 

The Democrats reform resistance continues to be an election year theme for the GOP.  For example, this opinion piece from Sen. Crystal Brantley.  

Constitutional amendments do not need to have a message from the Governor to be considered in this short session. Dem Sen. Jerry Ortiz y Pino, breaking with the Guv, is introducing one that would strip CYFD out of the cabinet and have a commission run the troubled agency. 

THE F WORD

GOP state Rep. Stefani Lord steps up to the plate with this piece urging adoption of a proposal that aims to address pediatric exposure to fentanyl. But a rebuild of the state's behavioral health system still awaits as the drug lords continue to lure New Mexicans into temptation with all too predictable results. 

Until we hear lawmakers come forward and say: "Anyone who needs a bed to treat their addiction gets one" the crisis will persist. 

(By the way Rep. Lord also has a bill that would outlaw necrophilia in the state but we'll drop dead before we cover that one.)

HE'S BACK

This early news from the session comes from the House GOP:

Former House Republican Leader, Jim Townsend (R-Chaves, Eddy & Otero), was nominated and elected by the House Republican Caucus, with unanimous consent, to assume the role of House Minority Whip. Representative Greg Nibert previously held the position but was recently appointed to the New Mexico State Senate.

Townsend won't be around the House much longer. He is seeking election this year to the state Senate seat held by Sen. Ron Griggs who is not seeking another term. Townsend's chances are seen by locals as quite good. But there is grumbling in Alamogordo as some see the switch as a loss. Townsend is from Artesia and Griggs is from Alamogordo. (Do Artesians need a passport to get into Alamogordo?)

MACHINE GUN MANNY

The machine gun scandal involving Manny Gonzales, the former BernCo Sheriff and now the leading GOP US Senate candidate, is going to be one of those gifts that keep on giving as Sen. Heinrich seeks a third term. The latest downer for Gonzales comes from the WSJ. He says the scandal is politically motivated but that's not going to stop the damaging news copy. 

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