The main purpose of these short legislative budgets session is. . .well. . . passing a budget. The state House gave the state one Wednesday and it's a whopper, topping out at a record $10.18 billion representing a 6.5 percent increase. The Senate is expected to approve something in that ballpark and the Governor's proposal is similar. 

About half the budget usually goes to operate the public schools. This one is no exception with a nearly $5 billion outlay approved for them along with the rest of the budget on a 53-16 vote. 

There are 25 Republicans in the House but not all of them could be held back from joining the party even if it meant rejecting their party's usual fiscal austerity. All Dems voted in favor.

What is different this time is an amendment in the budget that would not allow the Public Education Department to use any money to enforce a 180-day school year, probably one of the better ideas coming out of the Governor's office and that of Secretary of Education Arsenio Romero.  

It is mighty unpopular because it is a culture changer and upends the lackadaisical attitude toward educational achievement that for decades has held back progress. It could be the forerunner of more change--a must to reverse the atherosclerosis in public education in our enchanted land. 

At 50th or always near it in the national educational rankings, Secretary Romero has argued the time has come to make the educational community uncomfortable and adopt an idea that forces them to look at that standing and stop excusing it.

The idea is so unpopular there's a dartboard in a back room of the Bull Ring with Romero's face on it that gets heavy use. But we joke as Romero forges ahead: 

This amendment is just a step in the legislative process that is a long way from being finished. The 180 instructional day calendar rule referred to has not been enacted and is still under consideration. 

Well, good luck in the senate, Mr. Secretary. If they can use a dartboard you can at least use your old teacher's paddle.

STACKS OF CASH

As we blogged Tuesday the state's numerous permanent funds are awash in money, hitting the milestone mark of $50 billion at the end of last year. But we misstated the amount those funds spin off to the state's General Fund for that $10 billion annual budget expected to soon win final approval. A State Investment Council spokesman says: 

You indicated that the funds contributions to the state budget will be $1.2 billion for next fiscal year’s $10B+ budget, but actually that’s a little low - for fiscal year '25, the three primary trust funds will. . . will deliver $1.977 billion-$2.077 billion to the state this next year, or close to 20% of the state’s FY25 budget.

They also pointed out the Early Childhood Fund just created in 2020 with $300 million is today valued at nearly $6 billion. The House budget calls for spending $250 million of that next budget year and that's only about 4 percent of the total.

Then there's the constitutional amendment for early childhood and other education that took effect last July and is expected to generate $250 million annually. 

Arguably, New Mexico may be overfunding early childhood education, given the difficulty of staffing for the various programs. But it is a big bet with potentially a big return and one of the few policymakers have been willing to make (with a big push from voters who approved the measure at the polls in '22).

By the way, the Early Childhood Fund was the work of conservative Democrats who were against the constitutional amendment because it is funded from the Land Grant Permanent Fund. Their early childhood fund receives funding from excess oil and gas revenues not the LGPF. The conservatives never dreamed the fund would explode to this level. But the oil boom took care of that and that's how you get two powerful streams of funding for early childhood ed. 

STILL CAUTIOUS

Returning to the State Investment Council (SIC) and their conservative views on the staggering cash surpluses accumulating in Santa Fe. They are still holding on to their conservative coats with the spokesman saying:

The original concepts behind creating these permanent funds is to help the state deal with that eventual day – which gets closer all the time – when oil and gas will no longer be able to play such a prominent role in the state’s revenues and our ability to pay for schools and other important functions of state government. As the energy transition occurs, New Mexico will need both economic diversification and other revenue generators – and these funds can serve that revenue engine role and provide billions of dollars to New Mexico needs every year. It’s clear that our Governor and many of our legislators understand that dynamic, and the need to strike a balance in efficiently meeting today’s goals while also positioning us well for the future.

We've been hearing that for 50 years. Not that it doesn't make sense but today's era is historic, was unforeseeable and offers the chance to take chances to dig us out of the cellar. 

Today's New Mexicans want measurable, concrete results from this largesse before it fades away. That calls for scrutinizing that decades-old SIC mission statement.

We take it to our readers starting with Ken Tabish who floats the idea of a child tax credit for New Mexico similar to the one that the Feds approved during the pandemic and which made a real difference in reducing the national poverty rate: 

It is a dilemma. $50 billion socked away yet as a state ranked 50th on many indices. Poverty prevails when families are financially and socially stressed and begin to disintegrate resulting in poor mental health, increased drug addiction, leading to homelessness, crime and incarceration. Children in these families are plagued by poor attendance and poor educational outcomes, not to mention the nutritional, socio-emotional support they need to survive and grow. 

The continued investment in early childhood education coupled with the social support for mothers and young children is a great investment. Unfortunately, these investments will take time to bear fruit of change in our social well being. 

Again, with all this money from oil and gas, lets get the money to where it has most impact: single mother's with children, low income families with children and families with children with payments based on income levels. Direct payments to families provided by the Feds during Covid greatly reduced child poverty in this country. It was a great investment, I believe we can do the same in this state if we get all this new revenue directly to the families with children who need it. 

New Mexico does have a decent child tax credit but nothing like the monthly payments to families that were adopted during covid:

The Taxation and Revenue Department on Monday began accepting 2023 New Mexico Personal Income Tax returns. Starting this year, New Mexico families will be able to claim a new child tax credit that
can be worth up to $600 per qualifying child. The credit gradually decreases in value as income rises. This new child tax credit is expected to provide an estimated $180 million total to 292,000 families statewide. We know child tax credits reduce childhood poverty, so this is another critical step to lift up New Mexico families,” said Governor Lujan Grisham.

Not bad but for a state with the highest rate of poverty and dead last in child well-being direct cash transfers of $300 a month (with accountability) to eligible families is an idea whose time appears to have come--and the money is there to do it. 

MORE MAIL

Reader M. Wald writes:

With such a large fund, NM really should be doing MUCH better economically. Why aren't we? 

Elisa Sánchez writes:

Great article. NM will continue at the bottom because it has never dealt with the reality that it is a colonized Minority/majority state. Latinos and Native Americans are the majority in the schools and yet invisible. 

An ABQ reader writes: 

Joe, you hit the roofing nail on the head with a sledge hammer! Why is the $50 billion not being used on our kids and our less fortunate? Those that want the fees generated by “ investing” lobby to keep investing all the while they get rich and those of us who live here keep our 50 in everything status. What is so so sad is that no matter who we vote for nothing ever changes. 

Thanks for the comments. That's a lot of frustration mixed in with a dose of populism but that's what you get when you have $50 billion socked away in a state of 2.1 million and that can't seem to get off its back.  

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The explosion in oil wealth has pushed New Mexico to a rarefied position that is increasingly difficult to reconcile with its last in the nation standing in so many quality of life indicators. 

Figures recently posted show that investments in the state's various Permanent Funds hit $50 billion at the end of December, more than doubling in the last six years. 

We now have the 31st largest sovereign wealth fund in the world, up from 33rd only a year ago and with even more growth, albeit a bit slower, still in store for the rest of this decade.

The Land Grant Permanent Fund (LGPF) is the granddaddy of the various funds. Its value neared $30 billion at the end of December. The Severance Tax Permanent fund had $9.5 billion. The new rainy day fund, established to put aside permanently even more oil revenues, had nearly $2.4 billion.

Interest from the funds is diverted into the state General Fund and that now totals over $1.2 billion annually in a budget that this year will go over $10 billion, a record high.   

All the investments are managed by the State Investment Council with about 35 percent of the money invested in domestic and foreign stocks.

Jon Clark, a former deputy cabinet secretary at the state's Economic Development Department, became the state investment officer late last year after a 13 year run by Steven Moise who kept stock exposure limited to 40 percent of investments. 

There has been an argument made for higher exposure to grow the funds even more. The state underperforms when the market goes on a run but does lose less during bear markets.  

Up to date investment performance for the funds is not available on the SIC website.

AN ETHICAL DILEMMA

The SIC was established in 1958 to manage the permanent funds. During that time it was rocked by one major scandal.

Under Gov. Richardson in 2009 a pay to play scandal came to light that revealed "politically influenced investment deals involving state money." No one was charged with a crime and much of the money involved was recovered. In 2010 SIC policies were revised to prevent gubernatorial interference in the investments.

But a new ethical issue has arisen in this era of bounty. 

How can a state with so much money continue to be unable to break out from generational poverty and a litany of social ills that's kept it basically stagnant in economic and population growth for over a decade?

Voters did approve in 2022 a constitutional amendment to increase funding for early childhood education with money from the LGPF. Supporters believe that will help reverse the negative trends.

Policymakers maintain other state programs funded during the oil gusher have yet to fully take hold but will also begin to chip away at the state's poor standing. But there is reason to be skeptical. 

Perhaps fearful of being blamed for failure, today's political class has avoided saying where they want us to be in five or ten years as a result of this mind-boggling treasure.

So here we are with $50 billion and ranking 50th in the nation in so much that matters. This is akin to a last call for New Mexico--will she swing for the fences or sit on mattresses bulging with cash?

TIM KRAFT

One could say Tim Kraft was a pretty crafty guy--and you'd be right. The legendary political consultant who called New Mexico home for decades, earned national fame by advancing Jimmy Carter at the '76 Iowa Democratic caucuses and become a presidential adviser when Carter took the White House. Later, from his ABQ base, he offered up his consulting skills to international clients in South America and elsewhere.

From Kraft's obit:

Tim came to New Mexico in 1970. . .and fell in love with the state. He talked then N.M. Democratic Party Chair Mike Anaya into hiring him to be Executive Director. With his organizational and fundraising skills, he served in that role from 1970-1974. 

In 1975, fellow New Mexican Chris Brown introduced Tim to then Gov. Jimmy Carter, who was running for President. Carter hired Tim as his Iowa Caucus campaign manager. Carter came in second to uncommitted, but well ahead of other candidates. The publicity. . .provided an essential burst of momentum to Carter's campaign, and put the Iowa caucuses on the political map. . .After winning the 1976 election, President Carter asked Tim to serve as Appointments Secretary to the President. . . 

In 1979 he left the White House to serve as Campaign Manager for the Carter-Mondale campaign. He met his wife-to-be, the former Molly Manuppelli, who worked in the White House Office of Personnel, and they married in 1981. They moved to Albuquerque, where Tim started Avanti Ltd., an international consulting firm focusing on political strategy and management, public affairs and intergovernmental relations.

In New Mexico, Tim was a state and local lobbyist; he also worked on ballot proposition management in several states. 

We were lucky to have an enchilada lunch with Tim a couple of months ago where we asked him to recall his exploits on the national scene and thoughts on the current state of play. As expected, he was sharp as a tack. Some may recall that one of the hats he wore during his career was that of political columnist.

We were fortunate to have him as a longtime blog reader who on occasion offered deeply appreciated encouraging words and insights.

Tim Kraft died January 21 at his ABQ home. He was 82. 

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We blogged Monday that the pre-session predictors who were pessimistic about any major gun control legislation passing this session are being put to the test but the crystal ball gazers have been proven right in forecasting that a major crime bill that has been repeatedly introduced at the Roundhouse would be dead on arrival. 

On a 5 to 4 vote Monday the Senate Health and Public Affairs Committee tabled SB122, the now well-known pretrial detention bill or "rebuttal presumption" as it is also known. 

The early defeat in the 30 day session was not a big surprise as the measure has been repeatedly and unsuccessfully deployed as a populist battle cry by politicians and law enforcement officials from the Governor on down. But MLG pushed especially hard this time by making it a centerpiece of her nearly all crime all the time session agenda. She took note of the failure which was made possible by opposition from her own party:

 I am dismayed that our Legislature has once again refused to undertake an honest, robust debate on the state of our pretrial release system. Crime is out of control and something needs to change. We have invested hundreds of millions of dollars in behavioral health services, education, economic opportunity – critical components that ensure every New Mexican gets a fair shake. However, I will not stand by as repeat violent offenders walk in and out of our courthouses without consequence. A rebuttable presumption is not an extreme policy, and ours is modeled after federal law that has been in place for decades. It is time for the Legislature and the public to stand up and give this proposal the robust debate that New Mexicans agree it deserves.

(Statement of Senate Republican Whip Craig Brandt here.)

It's not as though the bill's defeat--yet again--is going to unleash a crime wave. From a 2021 UNM research report: 

Amid debate over New Mexico’s system of releasing felony defendants, University of New Mexico research indicates that just under 5 percent of Albuquerque-area defendants awaiting trial commit violent crimes while free from jail. Findings from the university’s Institute for Social Research’s analysis of more than 10,000 felony cases in Bernalillo County also included that less than 1 percent of people on pretrial release were arrested for a first-degree felony while on pretrial release. 

A rate of "under 5 percent" is nothing to celebrate but defeating a measure that has proven a legislative time waster, a mask for political cover and that experts say would probably be found unconstitutional is no tragedy. From the legislative analysis:

In order to subject a presumed-innocent defendant to pretrial detention, the state is required to prove “by clear and convincing evidence that (1) the defendant poses a future threat to others or the community, and (2) no conditions of release will reasonably protect the safety of another person or the community.” Agency analysis expressed concern that, if SB122 should be enacted, it would infringe on a person’s constitutional rights, place the constitutional burden on the defendant to prove the negative, and result in extensive litigation over SB122 affects on pretrial detention.

THE REAL PROBLEM?

The Governor states:

We have invested hundreds of millions of dollars in behavioral health services, education, economic opportunity – critical components that ensure every New Mexican gets a fair shake. 

But the state is far from effectively addressing the behavioral health crisis that has been a major factor in creating thousands of new criminals. Take a look at the list of publicly recorded drug overdoses in the Española area from October thru December. The list includes only those going through Española Central Dispatch--not those that did not require a public safety response:

Oct. 6: State Road 215 in El Rito; Oct. 9: Roosevelt Streer and County Road 87 in Chimayó; Oct. 10: Fairview Lane and North Riverside Drive; Oct. 14: Private Drive 1605 in Medanales; Oct. 16: Walmart; Oct. 18: County Road 41 in Alcalde;Oct. 21: Lowe’s Home Improvement; Oct. 24: La Joya Street, North Paseo de Oñate and Calle del Rio; Oct. 25: Walmart; Oct. 26: Starbucks; Oct. 27: Indian Way; Oct. 28: Dollar Tree; Nov. 1: N.M. Highway 17; Nov. 2: County Road 435 in Velarde; Nov. 4: Valdez Park; Nov. 10: U.S. 84 in Abiquiú; Nov. 11: Little Caesar’s, Walmart and Walgreens; Nov. 14: Private Drive 1626 in Abiquiú; Nov. 17: Española Pathways Shelter; Nov. 19: Calle del Rio; Nov. 21: Chamita; Nov. 23: Rio del Oso Street; Nov. 29: Private Drive 1504 in Hernandez; Dec. 3: Hernandez County Road 1535 in Hernandez; Dec. 4: Española Pathways Shelter; Dec. 5: Calle del Sol and Washington Federal; Dec. 6: East Shadowood Lane and Calle Redonda; Dec. 8: Freddy’s Frozen Custard; Dec. 10: Calle del Sol and Rio Arriba County Detention Center; Dec. 11: Kennedy Loop; Dec. 12: Park and Ride; Dec. 13: Ohkay Casino; Dec. 16: Terrace Avenue in Chama; Dec. 17: Española Pathways Shelter and CR 87 in Chimayó; Dec. 18: Española Pathways Shelter and County Road 1 in Hernandez; Dec. 19: Española Pathways Shelter, Calle del Rio and Milagro Village Mobile Home Park; Dec. 20: Española Pathways Shelter, JGN Lane and Calle de los Yuccas; Dec. 21: Calle del Sol, Calle Redonda and County Road 89 in Chimayó; Dec. 23: Española Pathways Shelte and Private Drive 1511 in Hernandez; Dec. 28: Walmart; Dec. 30: Calle Redonda

And that's just the Española area where the city population is only 10,500. There's the New Mexico crime problem--a fentanyl-fueled inferno. 

Pretrial detention, increased penalties for 2nd degree murder and a cache of other well-meaning crime proposals at this crime heavy legislative session aren't going to make a difference if the fundamental problem continues to go unaddressed. 

AN AMUSED SENATOR

Staying on the the crime beat we circle back to the Monday blog. Speculation was cited there that moderate Dem and Senate Judiciary Committee Chairman Joe Cervantes is perhaps siding with progressives in favor of a 14 day waiting period for gun purchases to be approved because opposing the bill might result in a primary challenge. But he says:

Joe, I was amused by the blog and speculation about where I am on gun laws. Recall I wrote and passed the laws on red flag, and closing gun show loopholes in the past. But recall also that immediately after the Governor issued a public health order banning the carrying of guns on public property in Bernalillo County, I called for her to rescind those orders. I believe I've been the only Dem legislator to do so to date. And of course the courts immediately struck down her unconstitutional orders

If  anyone wants to know my position, no speculation is necessary. I know the Constitution and the law very well, and I've taken an oath to uphold both. I'm supporting solutions that will be lawful, will have a true if small impact, and am not about to waste my time chasing press headlines. I'm a lifetime gun owner and concealed carry permit holder, and know as a lawful owner it's up to people like me to be the solution. 

The 14 day waiting period is expected to easily pass the House. In the Senate it is expected to be more difficult but Cervantes' support is seen as a breakthrough for possible passage.

Cervantes has served in the legislature since 2001, first as a representative and since 2013 as a senator.

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Cervantes and MLG

There was considerable speculation at the start of the legislative session that MLG's push for tougher gun laws would have a difficult time passing given past resistance by conservative Dems. But the session might deliver a surprise. 

A 14 day waiting period before a gun sale becomes final--among the longest in the nation--has passed the House Consumer and Public Affairs Committee on a 4 to 2 vote as well as the Senate Health and Public Affairs Committee. 

The Senate committee action on SB69 on a 5 to 3 vote won extra notice because Senate Judiciary Committee Chairman Joe Cervantes, often an ally of conservative Dems, is sponsoring the measure with Dem state Rep. Andrea Romero carrying the House version.

In the House conservative Dems led by Rep. Patty Lundstrom appear helpless to stop the bill in that  progressive body. The Senate is the battleground. 

Supporters argue the longer waiting period would save lives taken by impulsive acts of suicide and domestic and other violence The R's argue it would simply thwart legal gun owners while the illegal purchase of guns continue. 

PRO-GUN PUSHBACK

This swift early action on the waiting period bill and several others endorsed by the Governor caught the attention of the opposition and pushback is underway. Blog reader Mike in ABQ's NE Heights sums it up:

Hi Joe, In reference to your Jan. 16 blog post I pray the analysis is correct about the GOP forming a coalition to stop the major gun control bills this year. From the perspective of this former Marine, and 20-year plus gun owner, it's getting damn ugly in this state. 

Five years ago the Roundhouse wouldn't even draft anything near the scope of this year's legislation. I hope that this is a few legislators making noise, but pushing bills through two House committees and toward a floor vote in five days sends a message. All of it is an affront to gun owners.

Rep. Andrea Romero

Nationwide the Dems are now mask-off about their desire to severely curtail gun ownership. Look no further than IL, MA, WA, and the White House. Powerful and wealthy interests are pushing gun control nationwide and MLG is still trying to make a name for herself by pushing gun bills in an election year. 

Many of these bills are handed to Democratic legislators by special interests in the same way that the Federalist Society or Chamber of Commerce hand legislation to Republicans. None of this has anything to do with reducing gun violence or death; it's power politics.

I've seen too many states fall off the gun control cliff to simply dismiss all of this year's bills as election-year pandering. There's a reason the House bills were routed through committees controlled by Reps Romero, Ferarry, and Chandler. 

There's a reason that Sen. Cervantes, who seemed critical in stopping such bills last year, is now giving his blessing in Senate Judiciary. 

You are right about the stunning increase in gun ownership since 2020, especially among minority and female populations; a parallel to that is the explosion of permitless carry states (27 now). I get the sense that legislators are being directed to not notice that. 

I might still be surprised and maybe only something like Sen Wirth's bill banning guns at polling places passes or you might be surprised and the progressive Dems power make NM into California in one month. 

Thanks, Mike. While the special interests nationally have a role in the anti-gun legislation New Mexico's extreme gun violence, as cited repeatedly by the Governor, is also playing a part in the easier path we're seeing for the legislation. 

ANALYSIS, PLEASE

As for Sen. Cervantes, his failing to come to the rescue is significant. Some Roundhouse wall-leaners attribute this to the growing power of progressive Democrats in the state's cities, including Las Cruces where Cervantes hails from. He could be concerned about attracting a progressive candidate to run against him in the June primary. 

Also, we have a two-term Governor who is not quite a lame-duck, who has a deeper understanding of the legislative process and who has gone all-in on gun control. 

Earlier prognostications stated here that the GOP could join with conservative Dems to stop the bill requiring longer wait times for gun purchases--and other gun control measures--will be put to a full test. 

APD SCANDAL WATCH

Keller & Medina

Among the latest developments is the return of a $1,000 campaign contribution made to District Attorney Sam Bregman by attorney Tom Clear whose office was raided by the FBI in connection with the investigation into APD's DWI cops gone bad. 

Bregman was first called out on your blog for accepting the donation by Dem primary opponent and former US Attorney Damon Martinez. Bregman says he gave the money back before the demand from Martinez but he still took a hit for taking it in the first place. He told TV news:

The campaign refunded the contribution made on June 12th last year. We sent a check back to the attorney last Friday, January 19th, for the full amount of the contribution. Having worked in the legal profession for decades, District Attorney Bregman was an acquaintance with the attorney. Without compromising an ongoing investigation, DA Bregman returned the contribution as soon as possible.

Will ABQ Chief Harold Medina survive the scandal? He continues to get the full backing of Mayor Keller but the question is being raised and was raised here even before the scandal. From a newspaper editorial:

. . .Readers are saying the inevitable: it’s time for a change at the top. You can’t fire the mayor, so Medina, whom Keller elevated to permanent chief in March 2021, is under heavy scrutiny. “It’s time for a new chief of police,” wrote a writer. “Someone who will not stand in the shadow of the mayor’s office. We need an individual who will run APD instead of the mayor.” Medina said it was unclear if more officers or personnel were involved in the alleged scheme. It had better become clear if APD hopes to regain public trust, and Medina hopes to retain his job.

SCANDAL FOCUSED DA RACE

Matthias Swonger

Damon Martinez and Bregman aren't the only ones seeking the Democratic nomination for BernCo DA. Matthias Swonger, a veteran of the Public Defender's office, is the progressive candidate in the race. He comes with this statement for the blog: 

The corruption scandal allegedly involving APD DWI officers and a private defense attorney has brought new urgency to the DA race. . .The public’s already precarious trust in the criminal justice system and legal profession has been severely damaged. The outcome of the race will have far reaching consequences. . .

Sam Bregman represents a continuation of the status quo that is unacceptable. Much of his career prior to becoming DA involved defending officers in criminal and misconduct matters, and as DA he has only reduced transparency and accountability by removing the names of officers with credibility issues from the DA’s website. His office apparently failed to rigorously track their cases in a way that would have allowed them to raise the alarm when DWI cases continued to be dismissed due to officer non-appearances. Mr. Bregman’s failure to hold wrongdoers accountable and the fact that the attorney being investigated in the corruption scandal donated $1,000 to Mr. Bregman’s campaign raise serious doubts that Mr. Bregman can rise to the task of restoring trust in our criminal justice system. 

Damon Martinez is likewise an out of touch career political insider whose involvement in APD reform efforts as US Attorney and as an employee of APD where he was responsible for writing APD policies, has failed to uncover the corruption at APD. To the extent that Mr. Martinez has articulated a platform for his candidacy, he plans to double down on the failed war on drugs and to seek longer prison sentences for non-violent drug offenses. He is a non-starter for many progressives and people of color because of his role in overseeing a sting operation that primarily targeted racial minorities for low level offenses while he was serving as US Attorney. 

In these difficult times, when our community is shaken by scandal. . .we cannot afford to have either of these individuals represent the interests of the State in criminal proceedings in Bernalillo County. 

I’ve spent the past 11 years working as an attorney with the public defender’s office, working on the front lines to bring our impacted communities the justice and support they deserve. . .I know that we all aspire to live in a safe, fair, and inclusive community where everyone is valued and treated fairly. I am the only candidate who is a political outsider, and the only candidate running on a platform of meaningful reform. 

The APD scandal makes this race for DA tighter than the lug nuts on a lowrider's 56 Chevy. 

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